Projecting targets and target shares is critical to success in fantasy football leagues. You do not need to be a mathematician to make the best guess, rather you just need to analyze QB history and coaching history. Of course, this is not always possible, as rookie head coaches may wish to implement their own style despite coming from a noted and known system. Target trends year over year can prove extremely useful once context is added into the equation. Why did the Falcons see a five-plus pass attempt spike in 2018? Why did Green Bay pass the ball almost five more times per game in 2018 than they did in 2017? 

Answering questions like these can give you the context to determine which way the targets may go this season. Finally, personnel. Personnel changes on the offensive side of the ball, and in some cases, the defensive side of the ball can dramatically affect target distribution and the resulting target share. 

All target totals are from ESPN. Team target share by position numbers are from FantasyPros. 

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
2018 Total Targets – 617
Vacated Targets – 63
Available Target Percentage – 10.4

Notable Additions: Qadree Ollison, Olamide Zacchaeus
Notable Departures: Tevin Coleman

Fifth in the league with 38.8 pass attempts per game in 2018, the Falcons are likely to regress back closer to the 33.1 per game they recorded in DeVonta Freeman’s last full season. Part of the reason they had to throw the ball more last year was Tevin Coleman‘s general limited usage as the lead back. He averaged a rock-solid 4.8 yards per carry, but saw only 11 carries per game.

As mentioned, it is safe to expect a slight change in offensive philosophy this season. The Falcons should look to establish the run to open up some room via play-action. There are 63 targets available, but Freeman should soak up the majority of those. Expect him to see 65-70 targets this season.

The overall target distribution should remain relatively the same this season. Julio Jones will lead the way and see over 160 targets. His 28.1 percent target share should remain unchanged, but he should not lead the league in targets with a more balanced offensive approach on the docket. Both Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley had target shares under 16 percent in 2018. Sanu came in at 15.6 and Ridley at 15.2.

Fantasy Take:
Julio Jones will continue to be one of the most heavily targeted players in the league. He will also once again push for top-five numbers in terms of target share. 28 percent is right around the mark he should be hovering at all season long. Calvin Ridley should see a marked increase in his 2019 target volume. Sanu is still a reliable weapon, but Ridley is the piece that will make this offense take another leap. He saw only 5.8 targets per game in 2018 and could see that number rise to about 6.8 this season. That would mean 109 targets for Calvin Ridley and a 17.6 target share. Numbers that seem conservative at best. Sanu should see his target volume drop, but his target share will likely remain static at around 15 percent. Austin Hooper saw 88 of the Falcons 106 tight end targets last season and should be right around 80 targets once again this year. The position may lose some targets as a whole as the receiver and running back groups are expected to see a slight uptick. Expect a 70 percent wide receiver target share and a 15.5 percent target share for the Falcons running backs.

Carolina Panthers
2018 Total Targets – 563
Vacated Targets – 86
Available Target Percentage – 15.8

Notable Additions: Jordan Scarlett, Elijah Holyfield, Terry Godwin, Chris Hogan, Rashad Ross, Aldrick Robinson
Notable Departures: Devin Funchess

Carolina saw a huge jump in their pass attempts per game, leaping from 31.9 in 2017 to 35.2 in 2018. This is largely due to an upgrade to the Panthers receiver corps. Curtis Samuel made a leap, DJ Moore proved to be one of the most exciting rookie wide receivers in the league, and Christian Mccaffrey tallied more targets than all but 17 actual wideouts with a whopping 124.

The Panthers should see around 35 pass attempts per game again in 2019. Devin Funchess is gone which opens up the number one receiver role. There are a sizeable chunk of targets available, but they may very well be snapped up by Greg Olsen, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel. How the targets are divided this season will be a very interesting storyline to monitor.

Christian McCaffrey led the Panthers in targets and target share in 2018. A 22 percent target share for a running back is truly remarkable, but it also something that seems sustainable. McCaffrey is an excellent receiver and is arguably the teams top route runner. No Panthers wide receiver cracked 100 targets in 2018 with DJ Moore at 82 and Devin Funchess at 79.

Fantasy Take:
After no receiver surpassed 100 targets in 2018, we could see two in 2019. DJ Moore will see enough targets per game to pass 100 if he remains healthy. Curtis Samuel saw 65 last year and should at least pass 90 this season. A healthy Christian McCaffrey is a lock for 110+ targets and Jordan Scarlett should see 10-20. Greg Olsen and Ian Thomas should combine for close to 100 targets. Chris Hogan, Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, and Aldrick Robinson look to do battle with rookie Terry Godwin and AAF standout Rashad Ross for the remaining targets. The Panthers have too many receivers on their roster, so expect two of them to be sent packing at final cuts.

No one receiver will be assuming Devin Funchess‘ vacated targets. Rather we will likely see Moore, Samuel, Hogan and Godwin split them. Moore and McCaffrey should battle for the team lead in targets.

New Orleans Saints
Total Targets – 519
Vacated Targets – 98
Available Target Percentage – 15.2

Notable Additions: Latavius Murray, Devine Ozigbo, Rishard Matthews, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Emmanuel Butler, Jared Cook, Alize Mack
Notable Departures: Mark Ingram, Ben Watson, Tommy Lee Lewis, Cameron Meredith

The Saints did not stray much from their 2017 numbers in terms of pass attempts per game. They posted 33.2 in 2018 after a 33.9 mark in 2017. This number may increase with Mark Ingram replaced by Latavius Murray. Murray will assume the Ingram role, but due to being an inferior talent the Saints may feel less compelled to force-feed him touches. There are a solid 78 targets available for their many offseason additions to stake their claim to.

Aside from the heavy targeting of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, the Saints offense is wide open. The addition of Jared Cook and Alize Mack signals that the team intends to recapture the magic they had when they had a Pro Bowl level talent at the tight end position. There is some intriguing talent behind Michael Thomas in the wide receiver room, but which of them, if any, emerges is still up in the air.

Thomas and Kamara account for nearly 50 percent of the Saints targets, Thomas saw a 28.3 percent target share in 2018, while Kamara saw a 20.2 percent mark. No other player on the team saw over nine percent of the team’s targets.

Fantasy Take:
The Saints lost Mark Ingram and Ben Watson this offseason. They also lost Tommy Lee Lewis, and now have 78 targets up for grabs. The Saints had a busy offseason where they added two talented tight ends, two running backs capable of playing behind Alvin Kamara, one veteran wide receiver in Rishard Matthews, and two undrafted free agent wide receivers who seem to have an excellent chance to make the team.

With Thomas and Kamara soaking up roughly half of the targets, there should still be over 250 targets to distribute to the rest of the team. Jared Cook should account for at least 15 percent, especially when one considers that the position accounted for 17.7 percent with only Ben Watson, Josh Hill and Dan Arnold available at the position. Tre’Quan Smith is expected to make a leap and soak up at least 14 percent of the targets. If Rishard Matthews makes the team he could become a high volume possession receiver across from Thomas. And of course, we still have the man Smith is trying to replace in Ted Ginn Jr. Even though this depth chart is wide open, there is going to be an intense battle for both snaps and targets behind the leaders of the wide receiver and running backs rooms in Thomas and Kamara.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total Targets – 625
Vacated Targets – 229
Available Target Percentage – 37

Notable Additions: Breshad Perriman, DaMarkus Lodge, Anthony Johnson, Scott Miller, Bruce Anderson
Notable Departures: Adam Humphries, DeSean Jackson

Tampa Bay averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game in 2018 and 37.8 in 2017. The number did not jump much from the previous year. The count could stay at a relatively similar number as the Buccaneers declined to make any serious effort to upgrade their running game. There are a massive amount of targets available with the departures of both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries.

There are major changes afoot in Tampa Bay with Bruce Arians as the new head coach. Two of their top receivers departing means that there is now a wide-open competition for the number three and four-receiver roles. Chris Godwin has shown enough that he will at least start the season as the Bucs number two receiver. The Bucs added four talented receivers, one through free agency, one through the draft, and two as undrafted free agents. Depending on who you ask, the UDFAs may actually be the favorites for the number three and four roles on this team.

Mike Evans will remain the top dog in the Bucs aerial attack. However, his 22 target share may very well rise in Bruce Arians system. Remember Evans has seen as many as 175 targets in a season, and according to FFStatistics, Bruce Arians’ number one receivers have averaged 152 targets and 109 receptions over his last three seasons of coaching. Godwin saw only as 15.2 percent target share in 2018 as he was splitting both snaps and targets with Jackson and Humphries. OJ Howard has been criminally misused for much of his career and should be in line for a major target bump under Arians who may not be as willing to rotate an inferior tight end onto the field in Cameron Brate.

Fantasy Take:
Due to no longer having to feed four Pro Bowl level talents at wide receiver, we should see some target share spikes in Tampa Bay. Mike Evans should be around the 25 percent mark befitting of a number one receiver. Chris Godwin should account for nearly 20 percent. OJ Howard, as arguably the teams second most talented receiver should account for at least 15-17 percent. If these numbers hold true, there is still 40 percent left to divvy up.

The running backs accounted for 14.2 percent of the targets in 2018 and that was despite zero NFL level talent on the roster. With Arians in town this number could see a huge spike, particularly if Bruce Anderson manages to win the job. The tight ends accounted for 17.7 percent of the Bucs target share in 2018, and this number is all but sure to rise. OJ Howard should see between 80-90 by himself. If Brate remains on the roster (he should be traded) he may see around 30-40 targets for the season.

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Total Targets – 512
Vacated Targets – 68
Available Target Share – 13.5

Notable Additions: Riley Ridley, Emanuel Hall, David Montgomery, Dax Raymond, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Davis, Kerrith Whyte
Notable Departures: Jordan Howard, Kevin White, Josh Bellamy

The Bears averaged only 32.6 pass attempts per game in 2018, but that was still a marked improvement from the 29.6 they posted in 2017. However, this is not the volume anyone envisioned when Matt Nagy took over in Chicago. This number could very well rise with some upgrades at wide receiver and running back. At the very least they should be able to sustain more drives giving them more potential passing opportunities. Despite all the roster additions, there are only 68 vacated targets.

There is going to be a dogfight for targets in Chicago. Added in the offseason: three running backs, three receivers and a tight end. While the offensive scheme will stay the same, the Bears now have a new starting running back with better hands than Jordan Howard. They have added three talented receivers, two of which are very likely more talented than Taylor Gabriel. All of the offseason additions should help the Bears generate more pass attempts, but some players may still see their 2018 target shares fall.

Allen Robinson saw a solid 96 targets in 2018, but that was over just 13 games. His 7.3 reception pace extrapolated over 16 games would put him at 118 targets. Robinson should see at least this number this season. 118 targets last season would have accounted for a 23 percent target share which is more in line with a number one receiver. Gabriel saw a solid 18 percent target share. Tarik Cohen saw a fantastic 17.7 percent target share.

Fantasy Take:
With so many roster additions, projecting targets or target shares becomes a more challenging task. Here is what we do know. Allen Robinson will see close to a 25 percent target share if healthy. Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton are solidified in their roles and will see around 17 and 15 percent of the team’s targets respectively. David Montgomery who is a good receiver in his own right will see at least 40 targets next season. That leaves about 35 percent of the targets to go around. Taylor Gabriel is almost assured to see a role reduction this season. Anthony Miller has more talent and should be ready for an expanded role. As alluded to above Riley Ridley and UDFA Emmanuel Hall project as being superior receivers when they adjust to the NFL’s game speed as well. Cordarelle Patterson and Hall can fill the Tyreek Hill speed role for the Bears and may steal targets from Gabriel both underneath and downfield.

It is impossible to separate all of the receivers at this point of the offseason. If forced to rank where they will end up in targets at the end of the season Miller, Gabriel, Ridley, Hall, Patterson should be the order. Hall will not see an expanded role until midseason after undergoing sports hernia surgery, and that is if he even makes the team. Miller will be targeted for an increased role but has Gabriel and Ridley ready to pass him if he falters again. Patterson will be more of a gadget guy, but is playing for a coach who knows exactly how to extract the maximum potential from his skillset.

Detroit Lions
Total Targets – 574
Vacated Targets – 286
Available Target Share – 51.1

Notable Additions: T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Jermaine Kearse, C.J. Anderson, Travis Fulgham, Issac Nauta, Ty Johnson, Jesse James
Notable Departures: Golden Tate, Levine Toilolo, TJ Jones, Bruce Ellington, Theo Riddick

Amazingly, the Detroit Lions averaged 35.9 pass attempts in 2018, up only slightly from their 2017 mark of 35.6. Despite just four fewer completions, Stafford threw for almost 700 fewer yards thanks to a YPA drop from a top tier 7.9 to a replacement level 6.8. They have an amazing 286 targets available from last season after losing names like Golden Tate, Theo Riddick and Bruce Ellington.

Matt Patricia has continued to bring in his own types of players, and the recent scuttlebutt is that Marvin Jones may not last past this year’s trade deadline. T.J. Hockenson was brought in and will undoubtedly change the team’s offensive philosophy. He could quickly turn into the Rob Gronkowski is Patricia’s NFC Patriots. He brought in former Patriot Danny Amendola as well as fellow slot option Jermaine Kearse. Both of these players will push for the number three receiver role. The Lions will look to establish the run once again this season now that they have upgraded their backfield with the additions of Ty Johnson and C.J. Anderson.

Golladay saw a solid 20.8 percent target share in 2018, a number that is more impressive when one considers that he was not always operating as the team’s number one receiver. Jones saw a solid 62 targets in nine games. Extrapolated over a full season that would be 110 targets and a 19.1 target share. The Lions targeted their wide receivers 62.5 percent of the time in 2018, the running backs 25.4 percent, and the tight ends a mere 12.1 percent of the time (67 targets total).

Fantasy Take:
The arrival of T.J. Hockenson is going to change the way targets are distributed in Detroit. The tight end position saw only 67 targets last season and should be well over 100 this season. Hockenson should see over 80 targets, free-agent addition Jesse James should be good for at least 30. Issac Nauta should see double-digit targets as well. Kenny Golladay should see over a 23 percent target share and Marvin Jones should be around 18. With Hock, Golladay, and Jones snapping up just about 60 percent of the targets there is 40 percent left to claim. The running backs saw 25.4 percent of the targets in 2018, an amount that added up to 141. The running backs should stake a similar claim in 2019 leaving around 15 percent to be claimed by the remaining receivers. Danny Amendola will be first in line to soak up the remaining 65-85 targets.

Green Bay Packers
Total Targets – 640
Vacated Targets – 114
Available Target Share – 18.5

Notable Additions: Jace Sternberger, Dexter Williams, Mercedes Lewis
Notable Departures: Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, Lance Kendricks

Green Bay posted an insane 40.0 pass attempts per game in 2018. This was a big jump from the 35.1 pass attempts per contest they recorded in 2017. Some of this can be traced to not having Aaron Jones for a few weeks. The lack of run game is not the only culprit as the Packers defense was a sieve that left the offense with a -3.22 game script on the season. The Packers have 114 targets vacated from 2018, but they came from players who appeared to be on the decline in Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery, and Lance Kendricks.

With rookie head coach Matt LaFleur now at the helm, the Green Bay Packers offense is expected to be more balanced. Davante Adams should still see 150+ targets, but the number two and three receivers Marquez-Valdes Scantling and Geronimo Allison should now have more steady roles. The running game should no longer be forgotten for stretches at a time, and the running backs are expected to be more involved in the passing game. It is also possible that we see the Packers run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets) than we are used to. With Jimmy Graham and Jace Sternberger, the Packers now have two instant mismatches at the position.

Only three teams in the league fed more targets to the wide receiver position in 2018. The Packers 383 targets to their wideouts represented 62.3 percent of the total target share. The tight end position was second with a 20.5 percent target share. The running back group accounted for 106 targets or 17.2 percent. Adams accounted for only 26.4 percent of the team’s targets, a number that may seem low to those who watched Packers games last season. MVS, on the other hand, accounted for just 11.4 percent of the teams targets. Geronimo Allison, who played only five contests, saw six targets per game. Extrapolated over a full season that equates to 96 targets, or a projection of 15 percent of the teams targets.

Fantasy Take:
Davante Adams should remain option 1a and 1b on offense for Aaron Rodgers. He is still building his rapport with second-year players Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and J’Mon Moore. Geronimo Allison should be in for a steady workload himself, especially if he will be spending time in the slot over MVS when Adams kicks out wide. Adams should see close to 28 percent of the targets this season. With the Packers expected to see their pass attempts per game drop from the 40.1 per contest they saw in 2018, that would leave about 420 targets for the rest of the team. MVS and Allison should see at least 80 targets a piece providing they can hold off Brown and Moore. That would leave around 250-260 targets. Jimmy Graham saw 89 targets last season and should surpass the 80 targets mark once again in 2019. Of the remaining 170 or so targets about 100 of them will go to the running back group. The remaining 70 targets is likely to be spread out between Allison, MVS and St. Brown and Moore.

Minnesota Vikings
Total Targets – 606
Vacated Targets – 65
Available Target Share – 10.9

Notable Additions: Dillon Mitchell, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith Jr., Olabisi Johnson
Notable Departures: Latavius Murray, Aldrick Robinson

While most if not all expect this number to drop in 2019, the Vikings posted 37.9 pass attempts per game in 2018. 2017 saw them post 34.2 a number that is decidedly more league average, and more in line with what the Vikings want their offensive philosophy to be. Much of this can be blamed on the poor play of not only Kirk Cousins, but the Minnesota Vikings defense as well. There are a mere 61 targets available, a number that indicates that some players are going to see a reduction in both their targets and target shares in 2018. The Vikings added Alexander Mattison, a Latavius Murray type of back who can operate on any down. He will play a strict backup role, but will see usage in both the passing and running games. Dillon Mitchell and Olabisi Johnson appear set to compete for the number three receiver role. Irv Smith Jr. will be the team’s number two tight end and may also spend some time as a lead blocker. Smith has experience in this role from his time at Alabama. It is a skill set that can help boost his snaps per game.

As mentioned above the Vikings have made a commitment to having a strong running game. This does not mean run in non-opportune situations, but it does mean that they want to make full use of their most talented offensive weapon in Dalvin Cook. The top two receivers in Minnesota will undoubtedly stay the same, but the question is which version of Adam Thielen fantasy owners will see in 2019.

Thielen saw an insane 12 targets per game over the first half of the season. That amounted to 28.15 percent of the targets. In the second half of the season, he accounted for just 20 percent of the targets (7.125 per game). He finished the year with a 25.24 percent target share. Stefon Diggs sported a 24.58 share. Diggs only played 14 and a half games in 2018. The Vikings ranked third in the league with 67.1 percent of their targets going to the wide receiver position. Only 16.1 percent or 91 targets went to the tight ends. 16.8 percent or 99 targets went to the running back position.

Fantasy Take:
It became clear late in the season that Stefon Diggs was finally being treated as the number one receiver. Thielen exploded while Diggs and Kirk Cousins built a rapport, but as alluded to above, he fell back to earth once they did. Diggs saw a higher per game target volume in the second half of the season averaging 9.14 receptions to Thielen’s 7.125. Diggs had a 25.5 percent target share in the games he played, a number that trumped what Adam Thielen saw by the slimmest of margins.

Diggs, if he stays healthy, will lead the Vikings in targets and target share. He should come in around the 26-27 percent mark with Thielen trailing close behind at in the 25 percent range. With rookie receivers, Dillon Mitchell and Olabisi Johnson making a slow transition to NFL game speed, Dalvin Cook and Kyle Rudolph are likely to be next in target share. Rudolph should see 16-17 percent of the targets while Dalvin Cook sees 13-15 percent. Alexander Mattison should see north of 11 percent of the targets. That will leave roughly 5-10 percent of the targets for Irv Smith Jr. and whichever receiver wins the low volume number three job.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
Total Targets – 495
Vacated Targets – 43
Available Target Share – 9

Notable Additions: Kyler Murray, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, KeeSean Johnson, Kevin White, AJ Richardson, Charles Clay, Caleb Wilson, Maxx Williams
Notable Departures: JJ Nelson,

The Cardinals saw a massive drop in their pass attempts per game in 2018. They averaged 37.4 in 2017 and dropped all the way to 30.9 in 2018. With Kliff Kingsbury now in town we can expect this number to climb back up and approach their 2017 mark. There are only 43 targets available from their 2018 passing volume. However, there is 103.4 targets available if they are closer to their 2017 number of 37.4 this season. The Cardinals added a whole team worth of talent on the offensive side of the ball as they have a new QB, five new wideouts, and three new tight ends.

The air raid scheme the Cardinals are projected to run looks to be conducive to fantasy success. There will be instances when they run no tight end sets, a fact that caps the upside of whichever tight end emerges from the group of talented players they have at the position. A more competent offense that will be going no-huddle in an attempt to play at a higher pace, should help boost the pass attempts per game to a much more fantasy-friendly level.

Larry Fitzgerald led the Cardinals with 112 targets or a 22.6 percent target share in 2018. David Johnson saw 79 targets and ranked second on the team with a 15.35 percent target share. Christian Kirk and Ricky-Seals Jones had 68 and 69 targets respectively. The wide receivers saw 58.9 percent of the targets, the running backs 23 percent, and the tight ends 18.1 percent.

Fantasy Take:
We can expect a major bump not only in pass attempts per game, but targets to the wide receiver group. They should rank among the league leaders with a 67-68 percent share. The running backs should stay at the same level as they saw in 2018 albeit with a higher overall volume. David Johnson should see a bump in his personal target share and account for roughly 20 percent of the teams targets. Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and KeeSean Johnson appear set to receive 22 percent, 20 percent and 18 percent target shares respectively. The remaining 20 percent will be split between Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and Kevin White as well as the tight end group.

The target share predictions here are based on what the current depth chart is projected to look like as well as the expected rotations behind the top three receivers listed. Forecasting how Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will look with the myriad of talent he has at the wide receiver position is a tough proposition. What is certain is that Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk will lead all receivers in targets. Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler were higher picks, but KeeSean Johnson is the most pro-ready and due to this he has been turning heads during OTA’s and training camp. Everything behind Kirk and Fitz is up in the air target wise.

Los Angeles Rams
Total Targets – 568
Vacated Targets – 11
Available Target Share – 2

Notable Additions: Darrell Henderson, Keenen Brown
Notable Departures: CJ Anderson, Malcolm Brown

Los Angeles averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game in 2018. This number slightly rose from their 33.1 2017 mark. The Rams have only 11 vacated targets from the 2018 season. This may be an issue as Cooper Kupp will be returning from injury, and though he will not be back to his pre-injury form, he should still be targeted heavily out of the slot. The Rams also added an excellent running back in Darrell Henderson who has plus plus receiving skills. Former wide receiver (recruited as one in college) Keenen Brown was added as an undrafted free agent, and has the talent to make a name for himself given the Rams tight end room.

The Rams may see their pass attempts per game creep closer to their 2017 mark this upcoming season. They have more talent in the backfield than they have ever had which could lead to an increased emphasis on the run game. Henderson, the return of Kupp and even Keenen Brown make this offense more explosive than ever, and as such, they may find themselves scoring quicker than they have in recent memory. This is another factor that could lead to a slight reduction in pass attempts and as a result targets available.

Robert Woods led the team with a 22.6 percent target share in 2018. Brandin Cooks placed second with 117 targets or a 20.6 percent share. Todd Gurley ranked third on the team with 81 targets, a total that amounted to a 14.26 percent share of the targets. Cooper Kupp played in only eight games and as a result saw only 55 targets on the season. However, he accounted for 22.54 percent of the targets when he was on the field. The wide receivers saw 66.7 percent of the targets in 2018. The running backs saw 97 targets or a 17.9 percent share. The tight end position saw 15.5 percent of the targets.

Fantasy Take:
Predicting the target distribution for the Rams is a tough task. What we do know is that healthy, Woods, Cooks, and Kupp should all see over 100 targets and a 20 percent-plus target share. Depending on how fast Darrell Henderson adjusts to the NFL, Todd Gurley should see somewhere between 70-100 targets. Henderson is now expected to man a Chris Thompson like role for the Rams and could account for 50-70 targets himself. These numbers would leave only scraps for the tight end group and Josh Reynolds.

San Francisco 49ers
Total Targets – 532
Vacated Targets – 64
Available Target Share – 12.4

Notable Additions: Deebo Samuel, Tevin Coleman, Jordan Matthews, Jalen Hurd, Shawn Poindexter
Notable Departures: Pierre Garcon, Alfred Morris

The 49ers saw their pass attempts per game dwindle in 2018. They posted just 33.2 per contest after a 37.9 per game mark in 2017. This number should jump right back up if Jimmy Garoppolo can make it through the full 16 game season. There are only 64 targets available based on their 2018 volume, but there would be 138 targets based on their 2017 numbers. The 49ers have overhauled their offense and brought in numerous playmakers. Deebo Samuel was drafted in the second round and is expected to start for the 49ers. Always injured, Jordan Matthews still has theoretical talent. Tevin Coleman is the team’s new starter at running back and has operated as a receiving specialist for the majority of his career. Jalen Hurd can play both running back and wide receiver and could figure into the mix at both. Shawn Poindexter has some talent but will need to make some waves to avoid being released or stashed on the practice squad. If he makes the team, projecting target distribution becomes even dicier.

There will be no change in offensive philosophy this season aside from George Kittle operating as both option 1a and 1b for the 49ers. Dante Pettis is expected to remain the number one receiver, but Kittle has earned the right to be featured and lead the team in targets for the second consecutive season. The target share distribution will be an interesting storyline to watch this season as Jimmy G is fully capable of creating some fantasy stars.

George Kittle was the 49ers aerial attack in 2018. His 136 targets more than doubled Kendrick Bourne‘s second on the team 66 targets. Kittle saw an astonishing 25.56 percent of the team’s targets in 2018. No other pass catcher saw more than 12.4 percent. The 49ers funneled only 50.1 percent of their targets to the wide receiver position, the second-lowest mark in the league. Conversely, their 28.6 target share to the tight end group ranked second in the league. The running backs saw a solid 21 percent of the 49ers 2018 targets.

Fantasy Take:
San Francisco made some major upgrades to their skill positions, and also have Jimmy G returning from a season-ending injury to start under center. George Kittle will see his target share take a slight dip, but with increased passing volume he will be able to maintain his overall target range. Dante Pettis is expected to be the number one receiver throughout the year and should see between 18-22 percent of the targets. Rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel is slated to be the number two receiver and should see between 16-20 percent of the targets. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida should combine for about 25 percent of the team’s targets. The remaining 20-25 percent of the targets will be split among the rest of the 49ers pass catchers.

Seattle Seahawks
Total Targets – 427
Vacated Targets – 142
Available Target Share – 35.5

Notable Additions: D.K. Metcalf, Gary Jennings, Jazz Ferguson, Travis Homer
Notable Departures: Doug Baldwin, Mike Davis, Brandon Marshall

Seattle averaged only 26.7 pass attempts per game in 2018. However, this was not all by choice. With Doug Baldwin hurt for most of the year the passing game never truly got off of the ground outside of Tyler Lockett. They averaged 34.7 in 2017. While they will likely not see 34.7 this season the number should climb from their 2018 mark. Russell Wilson recorded his lowest pass attempts per game since Marshawn Lynch’s last season with the Seahawks. The Seahawks added some intriguing wide receivers in the draft, including two in D.K. Metcalf and Gary Jennings who should end up as starters in three-wide sets.

The Seahawks offensive philosophy should see a slight shift this season now that the Seahawks have improved their wide receiver room. They will likely remain a team that runs to open up the pass under Pete Carroll, especially with Rashaad Penny emerging. DK Metcalf and Gary Jennings could play large roles in the offense, as both players are arguably already more talented than David Moore and Jaron Brown. The team should be more explosive and see more overall plays from scrimmage per game. This could and should lead to increased numbers in both the carries and targets departments.

Despite playing injured and appearing in only 13 games, Doug Baldwin led the Seahawks with 73 targets. Tyler Lockett placed second with a 16.3 percent target share on 70 targets. David Moore came in third with a 12.4 percent target share. The wide receiver group saw 60.6 percent of the targets in 2018. The running backs saw 21.4 percent and the tight end position accounted for 18.1 percent.

Fantasy Take:
The Seahawks offense could look very different in 2019 from a numbers standpoint. They will remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league but still may experience a massive increase in pass attempts per game. Seattle now has a deep wide receiver group that will command a higher volume than they saw in 2018. The running back position is also in line to see a bump in overall targets as Rashaad Penny is slated to see increased snaps. This will, in turn, give Wilson another reliable option in the passing game. The tight end position will likely see a reduction in their target share but not their volume.

Lockett will lead the team with close to 20 percent of the targets. D.K. Metcalf may see upwards of 17 percent. David Moore, Gary Jennings, and Jaron Brown should combine for about 25-30 percent of the targets. Rashaad Penny projects to see between 13-16 percent of the targets. Chris Carson who saw just 5.6 percent of the team’s targets in 2018 should end up with a similar target share. Travis Homer could see up to 10 percent of the targets if he can pass Carson as a receiving option. As of today, Lockett, Metcalf, Penny and Carson are the only players worth drafting outside of the deepest leagues.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Total Targets – 527
Vacated Targets – 155
Available Target Share – 29.9

Notable Additions: Randall Cobb, Jason Witten, Mike Weber, Tony Pollard
Notable Departures: Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams, Allen Hurns, Geoff Swaim, Rod Smith

The 32.9 pass attempts per game was a solid improvement for a Cowboys squad that only mustered 30.8 in 2017. With a much-improved receiver corps over what they had at the start of 2018 at their disposal, their pass attempts per game may climb this season. There are 155 available targets in Dallas with Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams no longer in town. Randall Cobb can be expected to soak up at least half of those.

The Dallas Cowboys offense is in a position to truly explode in 2019. They now boast a strong three-wide set, have insurance for Ezekiel Elliott and have welcomed failed analyst, and future Hall of Famer Jason Witten back into the fold. Of course, the skill players will only be able to produce at the levels Dak Prescott‘s play allows them to, but they have the makings of one of the most deadly offenses in the league. Zeke will remain the engine of this offense, but as we saw last season, Amari Cooper will remain heavily involved enough to keep defenses honest in regards to defending both of the Cowboys offensive stars.

Ezekiel Elliott led the Cowboys with an 18 percent target share last season. Cole Beasley, now a Buffalo Bill ranked second with a 16.5 percent target share. Amari Cooper, despite playing only nine games with the team placed third with a 14.4 percent share. Cooper saw 8.4 targets per game in 2018, a pace that would have equaled 135 if extrapolated over a full season. That number would represent 25.6 percent of the targets.

The Cowboys saw 60.4 percent of their targets go to the wide receiver position. A number that is likely to stay relatively the same in 2019. The running back group was next with 21.7 percent while the tight end position finished with a 17.9 percent mark. The Cowboys will need to see an increased passing volume to accommodate all of their new weapons.

Fantasy Take:
It is possible Cooper sees his 2019 targets bumped to the 28 percent range, but staying around the same mark seems more likely with the additions to the Cowboys roster. Randall Cobb is likely to place second on the Cowboys in targets and should see close to 17 percent of Dak Prescott‘s targets. Michael Gallup should come in around the 15 percent mark, Jason Witten and the tight end group should see close to the 17.9 percent share they saw last season.

With Ezekiel Elliott engaged in a holdout, Tony Pollard has received the opportunity to get an extended look with the first-team offense. This, in turn, is going to guarantee him a regular-season role, somewhat mitigating Elliot’s upside versus what we saw from him as an unquestioned workhorse in 2018. This makes it possible that Elliott may receive fewer targets than he saw receptions last season. He saw 95 targets and hauled in 77 of them. To put this in perspective, Ezekiel Elliott had only 78 career targets before last season. Hopefully, he is still in the 70-80 target range, but the Pollard addition coupled with his holdout, and the upgrade to the Cowboys options through the air, should play a correlative effect in reducing his 2019 number from the 95 he saw in 2018.

New York Giants
Total Targets – 583
Vacated Targets – 140
Available Target Share – 22.9

Notable Additions: Golden Tate, Bennie Fowler, Darius Slayton, Reggie White
Notable Departures: Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants saw their pass attempts per game fall from 38.0 in 2017 to 36.4 in 2018. Of course, this can easily be pointed to as being a result of the addition of Saquon Barkley. Barkley had only three fewer targets than Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018, and with the Giants lacking a number one receiver talent, may take the team lead this season. There are 140 vacated targets from last season. 132 of them went to Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants figure to become more of a running back centric offense this season. They brought Golden Tate in to be an extension of the run game on short passes and screens, but he now finds himself suspended for the first four games of the season. The multiple injuries the Giants have suffered to their wideout corps this summer has accentuated what a thin line the Giants are walking with such a stark lack of talent and depth at the position. With Golden Tate expected to miss a quarter of the season, Saquon Barkley now looks like the betting favorite to lead the team in targets as a sophomore.

Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley were neck and neck in total targets in 2018. Beckham finished with 124 and Barkley finished with 121. These numbers are misleading as it took Beckham only 12 games to amass his total. Beckham averaged 10.33 targets per game, Barkley averaged 7.56. Sterling Shepard saw his 2018 buoyed by the fact that Odell missed four games and finished with a career-high 107 targets (105 was his previous high). Positionally the wideouts saw 53.8 percent of the targets while the running backs saw 26.5. The tight end group placed 12th in the league and saw a solid 19.7 percent of the targets.

Fantasy Take:
The New York Giants roster is a mess. First, the roster composition is head-scratching to say the least. Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard all thrive in the middle of the field and see their numbers drop when split out wide. It’s going to create a mess and depress one of these players fantasy values. As of today, it looks like it will be Golden Tate. Tate was expected to lead the wideout group in targets but is now suspended for the first four games of the season. This means Shepard will man the middle to open the season and will likely stay there if he has the volume-based success we expect. Expected number three wideout Corey Coleman has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. Sterling Shepard appears set to be out until at least week one with a fractured thumb.

Saquon should lead the team in targets this year with Sterling Shepard trailing in a close second. The Golden Tate suspension means that Evan Engram and Tate will finish the season with a similar amount of targets. Outside of Saquon, Golden Tate figures to lead the team in targets per game once he returns. The battle for the number three receiver role promises to be an interesting one as one of these receivers will be placed into the number two role for the first four weeks of the season. The current candidates are Bennie Fowler, TJ Jones, and rookies Darius Slayton, Reggie White Jr., and Alex Wesley. The expected target share breakdown is 22 percent for Saquon, 20 percent for Sterling, 18 percent for Evan Engram, and 16 percent for Golden Tate. The rest of the pass-catchers will split the remaining 20-25 percent.

Philadelphia Eagles
Total Targets – 599
Vacated Targets – 114
Available Target Share – 19.2%

Notable Additions: DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard
Notable Departures: Golden Tate, Jordan Matthews

Philadelphia posted a strong 37.2 pass attempts per game in 2018. This number was up from their 2017 mark of 35.3 per contest. Ostensibly this can be traced to a lack of a true lead runner, or anyone resembling a true NFL level starter in 2018. They had some contributions from their running back room, but there was absolutely zero consistency. There are 114 vacated targets, but the players joining the roster will undoubtedly absorb more than just those.

The Eagles offense is going to be much different in 2019. There is still a good chance they threaten the 600 pass attempt mark once again, but the distribution is likely to look much different. Philadelphia brought in two talented running backs that will form a formidable run game for a team in desperate need of one. Jordan Howard has looked like a replacement-level talent in recent years, but rookie Miles Sanders at the very least brings some excitement to the running game. Sanders has patterned his game after his former teammate Saquon Barkley‘s, and while he does not have his teammates ability, tools or skill set, he is still a talented back in his own right.

Zach Ertz led the team with 152 targets or 25.4 percent of the targets. Alshon Jeffery was a distant second with just 92 targets or a 15.8 percent share. The wide receiver group as a whole saw just 46.9 percent of the targets in 2018, the lowest mark in the league. The tight end group led the league by a significant margin with a 35.7 percent target share. The ragtag group of running backs somehow managed to account for 17.3 percent of the Eagles 2018 targets.

Fantasy Take:
Nelson Aglohor and Zach Ertz look set to see a reduction in their target shares for this upcoming season. Ertz saw a number one receiver like 25.4 percent of the targets in 2018 but could see that number drop to the 22-23 percent range with more talent on the roster. Alshon Jeffery was suspended to start last season and thus saw only 15.85 percent of the targets. He should see closer to the 22 percent mark in 2019. If Ertz and Alshon take up roughly 45 percent of the targets and the running back group sees close to the 18 percent (17.3) they saw last season there will be 35-37 percent left over for the rest of the team. DeSean Jackson should claim about 15-18 percent of those. That will leave 18-21 percent to the likes of JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Dallas Goedert, Nelson Agholor and Charles Johnson. Ertz, Jeffery, and Jackson are the players to own outside of deeper leagues. Dallas Goedert is a mega upside bench stash.

Washington
Total Targets – 509
Vacated Targets – 138
Available Target Share – 28.2%

Notable Additions: Dwayne Haskins, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon
Notable Departures: Jamison Crowder, Maurice Harris, Michael Floyd

Washington’s 31.8 pass attempts per game in 2018 was a sharp fall from their 2017 numbers. They posted 33.8 per game in 2017 which is understandable given that they at least had a slightly above average option at quarterback. With a rookie quarterback expected to open the season as the starter conventional wisdom suggests that they may see a low number of pass attempts per game. However, based on Gruden’s system and the skill set Haskins displayed at Ohio State, we may actually see a bump this season. There are 138 vacated targets for a team lacking any top-end talent outside of Josh Doctson and their rookie additions Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon.

Washington’s offense should become a lot more competent in 2019 if Haskins is named the week one starter. Keenum starting means that we will see something in line with the status quo as far as aggressiveness and weekly pass volume. If Case Keenum starts expect the slot to be the main focus of the team’s offensive attack. Jordan Reed and Trey Quinn stand to benefit the most with Keenum under center. With Haskins under center, we will likely see Paul Richardson playing the underneath speed role, McLaurin playing the deep speed role and Harmon playing the possession receiver role. With a wide-open depth chart at the wide receiver position, it is tough to peg exactly how Washington’s offense will be run.

Washington funneled 51.1 percent of their targets to the wide receiver position in 2018. 22.1 percent went to the running backs, and 26.7 percent went to the tight ends. These numbers are somewhat reflective of the playcalling but are just as much about the reads Washington’s carousel of QB’s were making last season. Based on personnel these numbers may likely remain relatively the same.

Fantasy Take:
As alluded to above, the quarterback under center to open the season may dictate which players end up leading the team in target share. Trey Quinn appears to be locked into three-wide sets, but the rest of the depth chart is a big question mark. Paul Richardson is a talented receiver that has never recorded over 703 receiving yards in his career. Josh Doctson had talent coming out of college but has never been able to put it all together as a pro. Terry McLaurin has pre-existing chemistry with franchise QB Dwayne Haskins, but both may enter the season as backups. Finally, Kelvin Harmon is the most talented receiver on the team but may be buried on the depth chart until he develops a rapport with Haskins and adjusts to the speed and talent of NFL cornerbacks.

Last season no pass-catcher exceeded a 17 percent target share. If he can make it through the season healthy, Trey Quinn should find himself at 17 percent or above. Jordan Reed with the same caveat will also likely see over 17 percent of the targets as he was at 16.5 percent despite missing three contests. How the rest of the target distribution plays out remains a mystery but an educated guess suggests Paul Richardson, Kelvin Harmon and Terry McLaurin fall next on the target totem pole, in that order. With so much uncertainty it is no wonder so many of Washington’s receivers are going undrafted in fantasy leagues. Trey Quinn is the lone receiver to target in shallow leagues, but all of them are relevant in deeper best ball and redraft leagues.

Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.