All good things must come to an end, and, on that note, this is the final Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues of the 2019 season. I wrap up this piece with a quartet of pitchers who could help deep-league teams in the fantasy playoffs or help others in roto leagues who are tightly clustered in pitching categories. A flame-throwing righty has been up and down throughout his young career, but he’s working on a hot finish. He’s joined by a pair of teammates facing soft opposition. Finally, a young righty who returned from the injured list on Monday night makes for an intriguing option for those who are willing to (or need to) take a chance.
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Reynaldo Lopez (CHW): Yahoo – 26%, ESPN – 18%
Lopez has flashed brilliance, but he’s more often struggled in “The Show.” Since the All-Star Break (ASB), however, he’s been locked in. In his last nine starts spanning 54.1 innings, he’s put up a 2.82 ERA (4.57 SIERA), 1.20 WHIP, 7.8% BB%, 22.6% K%, and 12.4% SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. The sizable gap in ERA and SIERA is a reason for pause, although he’s avoided hard contact with just a 27.6% Hard% during that stretch.
He continues to light up the radar gun with an average fastball velocity of 96.7 mph in his last nine starts, per FanGraphs, and he’s using his slider the most often of his secondaries with a 21.6% usage rate. The righty also mixes in a curve and changeup. For the year, all three of his secondaries have a swinging-strike percentage north of 11% starting with the curve at 11.1%, followed by the slider at 14.8%, and topped by the changeup at 15.8%. Lopez’s next start is over the weekend against the Braves in Atlanta. The matchup is tough, but at least he’ll be facing the pitcher as part of a National League lineup in a National League park. A start against the Indians in Cleveland late next week could also be tricky, but gamers who are looking even further ahead for their fantasy playoff series will be delighted to see the Royals on tap after that. The White Sox also play the Tigers twice in the final two weeks of the season. If you have the luxury of sitting Lopez for some of his more challenging turns in the rotation the rest of the way, the payoff has a chance to be huge with some super-soft matchups sprinkled in, too.
Jakob Junis (KC): Yahoo – 20%, ESPN – 18%
Junis hasn’t matched Lopez’s elite post-ASB ERA, but his 3.91 ERA in eight starts spanning 48.1 innings is solid, and his 4.26 SIERA is actually better than Lopez’s mark. Kansas City’s righty also has a 1.28 WHIP, 6.3% BB%, and 23.4% K% during that stretch.
His strikeout ability is helpful for a deep-league starting option, and his ERA and WHIP are playable, too. I wouldn’t advise starting him in his next turn against the A’s on Wednesday, but he has a pair of tasty matchups after that. He draws the Tigers next week, and Detroit ranks dead last in wRC+ (75) against righties this year with an MLB-high 26.7% K% against them. After that, he draws the White Sox, and they rank tied for 27th in wRC+ (82) against right-handed pitchers while posting the third-highest strikeout rate (26.2%) against them. Junis makes for an appealing short-term add.
Mike Montgomery (KC): Yahoo – 19%, ESPN – 8%
Montgomery squandered a favorable matchup in his last turn, but otherwise, he’s been pretty good for the Royals. He was limited in his first start with the club after working as a reliever for the Cubs, but in his last six starts with his new team, he’s totaled a 3.34 ERA (4.21 SIERA), 1.36 WHIP, 6.0% BB%, and 21.6% K% in 32.1 innings.
He should be benched for his Tuesday start against the A’s, but the Tigers are a great draw in his start after that. Detroit ranks 26th in wRC+ (86) against southpaws this year with an exploitable 25.7% K%. Depending on how the Royals use their starters going forward, Montgomery will either face the Marlins in Miami or White Sox in Chicago after his start against the Tigers. Drawing the Marlins would be the more favorable matchup, but the White Sox might not be as bad of a matchup as meets the eye. The Pale Hose rank 12th in wRC+ (100) against lefties this year, but their 6.2% BB% is the third lowest against lefties this year. Montgomery’s recipe for success with the Royals has been getting ahead with a first-pitch strike (67.2% F-Strike% in his last six starts) and nibbling while attempting to coax teams to fish out of the strike zone. That recipe should work well against a White Sox squad that’s rarely walked against lefties.
Pablo Lopez (MIA): Yahoo – 11%, ESPN – 6%
Lopez returned to the bump for the Marlins on Monday for the first time since the middle of June. The young righty’s rehab assignment got off to a rough start, but as you can see checking out his MiLB.com game logs here, he rounded into good form over his last two rehab starts. He topped out at 70 pitches in his last rehab start, and he built on that pitch total with 86 against the Reds on Monday night.
His first start off of the IL was a mixed bag. He coughed up four runs (all earned) in five innings, but he allowed only five hits, one walk, and one hit batsman while striking out three. Including his ho-hum start from Monday, Lopez owns a 4.41 ERA for the year with more promising marks in FIP (3.70) and xFIP (4.05). Furthermore, if you cut him some slack for a total meltdown start against the Mets on May 10 in which he coughed up 10 earned runs in only three innings and strike that from his ledger, his ERA drops to a sterling 3.18. He’s pitched well enough to be rostered in all 14-team mixers or deeper, and he should be rostered in some shallower leagues by pitching-needy gamers as well.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
