Per usual, this week’s Weekly Planner looks at the most noteworthy matchups for teams in the coming week. Unlike usual, however, the hitter and pitcher notes sections don’t address injuries. Instead, I’ve turned my attention to highlighting the most fantasy-relevant players (for re-draft leagues) dealt before Wednesday’s MLB trade deadline. Both jam-packed sections provide an idea of how to evaluate the traded players going forward.
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Notable Matchups
Mariners vs. Padres (2), vs. Rays (3)
The Mariners and Astros are the only two teams to play five games next week. Houston’s star-studded lineup features many fantasy options who should be started regardless of the number of games on the schedule. The same can’t be said for Seattle. The Mariners are projected to face one southpaw with three unnamed starters for the series against Tampa Bay. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll face at least one of Brendan McKay, Ryan Yarbrough, and Jalen Beeks. The short week and potentially lefty-heavy layout of pitching matchups make Daniel Vogelbach someone to bench in almost all leagues with weekly lineup changes. Ditto for J.P. Crawford in deep leagues where he’s rostered.
Rockies at Astros (2), at Padres (4)
The Rockies are on the road for all six games next week, and both venues are pitcher-friendly parks that suppress homers. Toss in Gerrit Cole and Chris Paddack among the hurlers they’re lined up to face, and the stock of Colorado’s hitters is down next week.
Angels at Reds (2), at Red Sox (4)
Last week, the Angels visited a National League park for two games against the Dodgers. They were in American League parks all this week, but they’ll play two in Cincinnati next week. Shohei Ohtani remains limited to designated hitter duties, so expect him to be relegated to pinch-hitting opportunities as a best-case scenario for both games.
Red Sox vs. Royals (3), vs. Angels (4)
Everything comes up roses for Boston’s hitters next week. They play a game every day, and all are at their hitter-friendly home park (1.100 for runs, third-highest in MLB). As if that’s not tantalizing enough, their pitching matchups are Charmin soft. Boston’s batters project to eat.
Yankees at Orioles (3), at Blue Jays (4)
I could almost get away with copy and pasting the write-up about Boston’s hitters for the Bronx Bombers, but they’re on the road for both of their series next week. New York’s pitching matchups are mouth-watering, and a full layout of seven games next week is yet another reason to love New York’s bats for that scoring period.
Marlins at Mets (4), vs. Braves (4)
The Marlins are one of two teams that play eight games next week. The other is Detroit, and the Tigers have little in the way of fantasy-relevant hitting talent, hence they didn’t make this section. Miami’s offense at least features Brian Anderson and Jorge Alfaro, a streaming option in single-catcher leagues. Both players get a lift from the eight-game schedule, though Alfaro obviously shouldn’t be expected to play in all eight games given the doubleheader. Anderson possibly could, or he’s at least a probable pinch-hitter if he sits in one of the doubleheader games in New York next Monday.
Hitter Notes
Franmil Reyes (OF – CLE)
Yasiel Puig (OF – CLE)
Cleveland’s outfield was in need of upgrades, and it was bolstered with serious thump just before the MLB trade deadline. Interestingly, both Reyes and Puig will suffer a ballpark downgrade for homers. The right-handed park factor for homers at Great American Ball Park (GABP) is 1.171, 0.995 at Petco Park, and only 0.910 (ninth-lowest) at Progressive Field. The park shift is enough to downgrade Puig’s homer expectations a pinch going forward, but both power-packed sluggers have ample pop to reach the seats in any stadium.
Additionally, Cleveland’s lineup facelift should provide all members of the offense, including both newcomers, nice run and RBI upside. Puig will eventually have to miss time for his new team, most likely. MLB served him a three-game suspension for his “aggressive actions” in the Tuesday night brawl between the Reds and Pirates. All of the suspended players are appealing, so Puig will play for his new club for now. In their first game with the Indians, Puig slotted in cleanup while Reyes batted sixth.
Scooter Gennett (2B – SF)
Gennett hasn’t been able to get into a groove since his activation in late June. He’ll no longer have to look over his shoulder for Derek Dietrich potentially overtaking him in the starting lineup, but his rest-of-season outlook is bleak in his new home digs nonetheless. GABP’s left-handed batter park factor of 1.182 is sixth-highest while Oracle Park’s 0.662 rate is the worst. Gennett is little more than a deep-league option with a lower bounce-back ceiling on the Giants.
Nicholas Castellanos (OF – CHC)
Castellanos receives a sizable lineup upgrade by being dealt from the Tigers to the Cubs, but Chicago’s depth could prove to be a blessing and a curse. The right-handed outfielder will have more run-production upside when in his new team’s lineup. However, he could sit semi-regularly against right-handed pitchers unless the Cubs are willing to play Jason Heyward in center field more often going forward. Castellanos is a shoo-in to face southpaws, though, and Heyward has played 42 games (34 starts) in center field this year, so the Cubs might regularly run out an outfield of Kyle Schwarber, Heyward, and Castellanos. That’s exactly the configuration the Cubs used Thursday, and Castellanos batted second in his first game with the club.
Derek Fisher (OF – TOR)
Fisher has been unable to turn his Triple-A performance into sustainable success at the big-league level, and he’s watched other prospects rise and surpass him in Houston’s pecking order for playing time. With the Blue Jays, he should have an opportunity to prove he’s more than a Quad-A player. Whether or not he’ll do that remains to be seen, but he has a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A this year while posting an elite 14.8 BB% and cutting his strikeout rate down from 30.2% at that level in 2018 to a more palatable 24.8% this season. Fisher slugged 14 homers and stole eight bases in just 270 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, and he added another long ball and four homers in 60 plate appearances for the Astros. He’s not worth scooping up in standard mixers yet, but his power/speed combo is worth speculating on in 14-team mixers or deeper formats.
Corey Dickerson (OF – PHI)
Dickerson has been limited to only 43 games this year, but his pop has bounced back after a season in which he hit only 13 homers with a .175 ISO in 533 plate appearances for the Pirates. He ripped four homers — two on Tuesday — with a .238 ISO in 141 plate appearances for them this year. He traded some thump for average in 2018, hitting .300 for the first time since his last season (2015) with the Rockies. This year, he’s actually built on the average, hitting .317 while making the most out of the juiced balls. His power will get an even bigger lift in his new home park. PNC Park in Pittsburgh has a left-handed factor of 0.996 for homers, and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia has a park factor of 1.229 (fourth highest). Dickerson’s stock is up.
Pitcher Notes
Shane Greene (RP – ATL)
Mark Melancon (RP – ATL
Greene and Melancon weren’t the only pieces the Braves added to reshape their bullpen. They’re the most noteworthy, though, since they’re — namely Greene — most likely to impact the saves pecking order. Greene successfully converted 22 of 25 save opportunities for the Tigers while spinning a sterling 1.18 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Yes, he’s been a bit fortunate with a less impressive 3.45 SIERA to show for his work, but he’s bumped his strikeout rate up to a career-high 28.5% this season with an 11.1% SwStr rate that’s far above his 8.4% from 2018. Melancon also has closing experience, and he could be called upon in a pinch if Greene or incumbent closer Luke Jackson struggle or are unavailable on a given night. Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes Greene will unseat Jackson as the team’s closer.
Zack Greinke (SP – HOU)
The Astros forked up a quartet of top prospects in a surprise deal for Greinke. In a time when it seems like all of the top pitchers are succeeding with sharp cheddar, Greinke’s been outstanding with diminished velocity. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks 10th in ERA (2.90), third in WHIP (0.95), and tied for 18th in SIERA (3.90). He trades a neutral park (1.001 park factor for runs at Chase Field) for MLB’s third-toughest scoring environment, Minute Maid Park (0.866 for runs). He’ll also be treated to a big upgrade in his offensive supporting cast. The Astros rank first in wRC+ (120) while the Diamondbacks rank 15th (97) this season, according to FanGraphs.
The only negative is changing leagues, but it’s a minor fly in the ointment. FanGraphs credits NL hitters with a 94 wRC+ and 22.9% K% thus far this year compared to a 99 wRC+ and 22.7 K% for AL hitters. Overall, the pros to joining the Astros outweighs the cons for Greinke, and his value is slightly elevated by his new team.
Trevor Bauer (SP – CIN)
Bauer changes leagues in the opposite direction but stays in the same state. He calls a more homer-friendly park (1.205 compared to 1.040) home now, but GABP does have a lower park factor for runs (1.045) than Progressive Field (1.095). Bauer’s value is essentially unchanged by the move.
Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)
In a rare prospect-for-prospect swap, the pitching-rich Marlins dealt Gallen for stud shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm. Gallen leaves the most pitcher-friendly park in Miami (0.826 for runs) for a neutral run-scoring environment in Arizona. He should receive more run support with his new club, though. The Marlins tie the Tigers for last in wRC+ (75) while the Diamondbacks are middle of the pack. Gallen’s dynamite 2.72 ERA through seven starts spanning 36.1 innings was likely due for regression anyway, as his 3.58 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.44 SIERA all suggest he’s been a bit lucky. Don’t overreact if the rookie has some hiccups the rest of the way. He remains universally rosterable.
Tanner Roark (SP – OAK)
The recent return of Alex Wood and aforementioned acquisition of Bauer made Roark expendable for the Reds, so they dealt him to the A’s. The veteran righty goes from pitching his home games in the fifth-most homer-friendly park (1.205) to doing so in the fifth-least homer-friendly park (0.846). Regardless, his major struggles with left-handed batters (.544 SLG and .403 wOBA yielded to 238 lefties faced this season) render him little more than a streamer against righty-heavy lineups.
Aaron Sanchez (SP – HOU)
Sanchez has relieving and starting experience, and the Astros haven’t revealed his role yet. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks dead last in ERA (6.07). The ERA estimators aren’t much kinder, with the 27-year-old righty also sporting the fifth-worst SIERA (5.26), seventh-highest FIP (5.04), and 10th-highest xFIP (5.09) among qualified pitchers this year.
Despite the struggles, it would be a mistake to completely ignore the deal. The Astros have done a masterful job of getting the most out of their pitchers of late, and Sanchez’s curve gives him one weapon to start with while his changeup flashed bat-missing ability as recently as last year. He can be left in the free-agent pool of most leagues, but gamers in 14-team mixers or deeper (namely head-to-head leagues) with a bench spot to burn wouldn’t be crazy to add and stash him on their benches in the hopes of Sanchez starting and clicking with his new organization. He has the goods to be a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if the light bulb goes on.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
