Gerrit Cole reached 200 strikeouts quicker than any pitcher has in a single season since Randy Johnson in 2001.
After notching 11 strikeouts against Oakland Monday night (his third consecutive start reaching double digits), Cole has 205 punchouts in 132.6 innings. According to Baseball-Reference, his 13.5 K/9 would surpass the Big Unit for the highest single-season rate in MLB history.
We might not be fully appreciating Cole’s greatness since he — like virtually every other pitcher — has struggled to keep the juiced ball in the park. It speaks to his greatness that he still sports a stellar 3.03 ERA despite ceding 21 home runs in 22 starts. As a result, it’s not surprising to see him lead all qualified starters in SIERA (2.58) and xFIP (2.65).
How is he getting better? Eliminating a sinker famously led to last year’s breakthrough in Houston. Cole has continued to phase out the pitch, throwing it just 13 times all season. He has spiked his four-seam fastball velocity to 97 mph, second in the majors among all starters behind Noah Syndergaard. The heater also ranks second in pitch value (pVAL) behind the now injured Brandon Woodruff. It’s still not even his best weapon. That honor belongs to his slider, which has submitted a .213 wOBA and 20% swinging-strike rate.
Everyone who shouted “Gerrit Cole bay bay” on draft day is now enjoying an undisputed ace. He’s now the second-best fantasy starter behind a healthy Max Scherzer, and that’s coming from someone not worried about Chris Sale or Jacob deGrom. If he keeps up his record-setting pace and mounts a 300-strikeout campaign, Cole will have a strong case for first-round consideration next year.
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Ramon Laureano: .449 SLG vs. Breaking Pitches
Here are the only players to have amassed at least 20 home runs and 10 steals this season: Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna Jr., Trevor Story, Yasiel Puig, and Laureano.
The first three are fantasy phenoms, and Puig has jumped to No. 69 in the ECR due to his stellar recent form. Laureano, meanwhile, is down to No. 132 despite ranking ninth among all outfielders on FantasyPros’ 2019 player rater.
Plenty of drafters vaulted him into a not-so-sleepy preseason sleeper with 20/20 potential. Not even his biggest fans, however, could have anticipated him to reach those 20 home runs in July. That’s already a career-high throughout all levels for the 25-year-old, who has roughly the same average exit velocity as contact rate as last year’s debut in Oakland. His walks, barrels, and wOBA have all declined, so where is this power surge coming from?
Maybe it’s just the baseballs, but Lazor Ramon has also upped his fly-ball rate from 31.5 to 39.1%. Nearly all of those batted balls have come at the expense of grounders. Digging deeper into his Baseball Savant page also reveals a more polished hitter during his first full major league campaign. After batting .163 with a .209 slugging percentage against breaking pitches last season, those marks have respectively risen to .244 and .449. His average launch angle has also doubled from 10 to 20 degrees versus these offerings. That’s significant since Laureano continues to pummel fastballs (.332 BA, .592 SLG) with regularity.
There are still reasons to believe the power will slow down over the final two months. He’s an aggressive hitter whose overall .512 slugging percentage lurks far above his .447 expected slugging. This is simply to say he probably won’t hit another seven homers each in August and September as he has in June and July. This month’s .400 batting average will fall as well, but Laureano has nevertheless established himself as a phenomenal option who should finish near the vicinity of 30 homers and 20 steals. He’s somehow still available in 28% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues.
Charlie Blackmon: .279 wOBA away from Coors Field
Last week, I examined German Marquez’s grave misfortunes in Coors Field and concluded that he’s not usable at home. Is the inverse becoming true for Blackmon?
The overall numbers are great for the 33-year-old outfielder. While it’s disappointing to see his stolen-base tally bottom out, he’s made up for it by hitting .320/.364/.598 with 21 home runs, 74 runs, and 60 RBIs. That’s because he’s the equivalent of Mike Trout facing high schoolers at Coors, where he boasts a .528 wOBA. This dominance conceals his anemic .241/.270/.389 slash line away from the hitter’s paradise.
It doesn’t help that he’s slumping at all venues in July, mustering his only home run at Yankee Stadium last Sunday. He also has MLB’s seventh-most fortuitous differential between xwOBA (.399) and wOBA (.352) among batters with at least 200 plate appearances. That’s also another symptom of Coors, but perhaps one indicating that he’ll keep falling down to earth even in his home park.
Blackmon is an all-systems-go option when the Rockies host the Dodgers and Giants for three games apiece next week. The following week, however, sees Colorado travel to Houston and San Diego for two and four games, respectively. It wouldn’t be crazy to sit him in three-outfielder mixed leagues where managers have strong alternatives along the lines of Laureano, Oscar Mercado, or A.J. Pollock. Yet Blackmon has a respectable career .259/.311/.426 slash line on the road, so expect the steep splits to eventually converge.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.