With the All-Star break one week away, let’s look at some possible second-half risers, fallers, and trade candidates in this week’s Burning Questions.
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Will Hyun-Jin Ryu keep up his ridiculous level of pitching?
Thus far, no pitcher in baseball has been better than Hyun-Jin Ryu. Sure, other pitchers have more strikeouts, and four pitchers have more wins, but no starter has been better when it comes to what really matters: allowing hits and runs: In fact, even after a mishap at Coors Field, Ryu’s ERA sits at 1.83. So why is there so much concern for the 32-year-old southpaw?
Let’s first start with the fact that Ryu has had three seasons in his career — yes, only three — where he pitched more than 100 innings. In those seasons, he has never recorded an ERA below 3.00. This would be a major outlier in his seven-year career. Is it likely that Ryu will pitch to a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way and finish with a season ERA of over 3.00? Probably not. However, while taking a look at four different projection systems, it’s interesting to note that not a single one of them projects Ryu to have under a 3.37 ERA in the final three months. That’s still good, but not the pure dominance owners have received to this point.
Also of note is the reality that Ryu’s FIP and xFIP sit at 3.04 and 3.44, respectively. Finally, lost in all the above is the undeniable point about Ryu’s health. He required one IL stint in the first half of the season. The odds tell us that there’s likely one more ahead in the second half. The question is just how long that will last. If none of this scares you, go right ahead and keep riding him while you can. However, if you get the chance to sell high, that’d be a hard offer to pass up.
What should we expect from Bryce Harper in the second half?
I wrote very early this season about how owners shouldn’t expect the world out of Harper anytime soon. Unfortunately for Harper fans, I’ve pretty much been right. He hasn’t been bad, but he definitely hasn’t been worthy of a first or second-round pick. Furthermore, only his high run and RBI totals have kept him afloat. The .250 average and four steals aren’t exactly anything to take to the bank.
Well, I have good news: the second half of his year is looking up. Why? Because for whatever reason, Harper’s second-half numbers always seem to go up. He has hit .300 or better after the All-Star break in three of his last four seasons, and we know Harper’s season-long averages have been anything but consistent over his career. In all reality, Harper’s only had one poor second half in his seven-year career. Expect much better from the polarizing new Philly heading forward.
Who are some great second-half trade targets?
Jose Ramirez (2B/3B – CLE)
I know you’ve heard this one a hundred times in the first half. Seriously though, this might be your last chance to buy low on Jose Ramirez. Unfortunately for his poor owners, right when he started to heat up last week, he went on paternity leave (congrats, Jose!). He’s shown signs of life, but after the paternity leave and an 0-for-3 on Sunday, some owners’ frustration levels might be at their highest. Swoop in and snag him for a nice second-half run.
Jack Flaherty (SP – STL)
Flaherty has run into some really bad situations this season. If you just glanced at his numbers, you’d think he’s simply gotten shelled on a lot of occasions. The fact of the matter is that he’s been just bad and unlucky enough in inopportune times. His 4.00 xFIP suggests his 4.75 ERA should fall closer to the threes. In the second half, look for Flaherty to give up fewer home runs and have luck swing a bit in his favor.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
Talk about another Cardinal who has run into some rough luck. To put it quite simply, Goldschmidt has hit the ball just as hard as ever before, but his BABIP is 49 points lower than his career average. Even last year, in a season where Goldschmidt struggled for a while, his BABIP was .359. This year, it’s .302. Some owners likely feel frustrated, making him a great buy-low candidate.
Adalberto Mondesi (2B/SS – KC)
A base-stealer with a groin injury has to scare at least a few owners out there. Mondesi was so good when he was in the lineup earlier this year, however, and he may even return before the break. I’d be comfortable paying full price for Mondesi if someone is a bit perturbed by the injury, especially since he’ll have the All-Star break to heal some more.
Which closers might be traded?
Will Smith (SF)
Smith undoubtedly has to be the first name on this list. What team couldn’t use a lefty closer who has pitched to a 2.16 ERA? That’s exactly why everyone and their dog seems to want to trade for him. Smith is going to be dealt, and it’s going to be to a contender. Odds are, however, whoever he’s traded to probably won’t use him in a closing role.
Shane Greene (DET)
Greene has been so good this season, and absolutely no one expected it. Unfortunately, despite his success, the likelihood of him closing on a new team is slim.
Alex Colome (CWS)
Because of his vast ninth-inning experience, Colome actually seems to have the best chance of closing if he gets traded. He won’t be the number one reliever on the market and may go to a team that strictly needs a closer, while a guy like Smith seems destined for a team with an established stopper. Still, though, the odds are just as likely that Colome won’t be closing next month
Ken Giles (TOR)
Boy, has the book changed on Giles in the last year. Almost no one wanted him a year ago, when the Astros were trying to give him away before moving him in a trade for Roberto Osuna. Now, he seems like a surefire bet to get traded to a contender while having a great season with only one more full year of team control beyond 2019. There’s almost no chance Giles will still be closing games in a month.
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Alex Altmix is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive or follow him @Altmix_23.