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Superflex League Strategy (2019 Fantasy Football)

Superflex League Strategy (2019 Fantasy Football)

Superflex has become an increasingly popular league type in fantasy football circles. While two-QB leagues have gone the way of the dodo, Superflex provides the two-QB appeal without forcing managers to start, or even roster two passers. Of course, the league settings likely dictate that you will want at least two on your roster. With the Superflex phenomenon seemingly growing by the day, odds are those who have not already will eventually partake in a league of this format. As such, the need to strategize for this league type takes on added importance each and every offseason.

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Importance of QB
You can start up to two QBs in Superflex leagues. As such, QBs are significantly more valuable than in single-QB formats. If you play in a 12-team league, there will be up to 24 QBs starting on non-bye weeks. There are only 32 teams. This means that at least four teams will not have a third quarterback. And for those of us who have already participated in Superflex leagues, we know it is never that cut and dry.

Some teams will hoard quarterbacks and roster 5-6 starters in an attempt to corner the trade market, or perhaps to make up for passing on the top options in the first couple of rounds. While Superflex is not two-QB, it does essentially function like it in many cases. The scoring in these leagues is often set so as to encourage starting a QB in the Superflex spot. This may be especially true in standard leagues.

Whether or not this is your preferred format, there is a strong likelihood you will encounter this layout if you are a fantasy player who joins multiple leagues per year.

ADP
The average draft position (ADP) of quarterbacks skyrockets in Superflex formats. Patrick Mahomes, for example, is now in the mix for the first overall pick. In fact, someone went that route in one of my 2019 startups Let’s take a look at the ADP of the top-five QBs for the 2019 season based on mocks that took place over the last month.

Name 1-QB ADP Superflex ADP
Patrick Mahomes 3.06 1.04
Andrew Luck 4.10 1.11
Aaron Rodgers 5.04 2.04
Deshaun Watson 5.12 2.05
Baker Mayfield 6.10 2.07

 
As we can see, the value of QBs receives a major jump in Superflex formats. This is true all the way down the list. Mitchell Trubisky is the 5.11 in Superflex but lasts until 13.04 in single-QB formats. According to Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP tool15 QBs are expected to come off of the board by the end of round five. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady are both sixth-round picks in Superflex, but they go in the 10th and 11th, respectively, in single-QB leagues. This contrast in value is the main difference between one-QB and Superflex leagues. With that said, drafting QBs much earlier also means that the other skill-position players can often be had at much better values.

Don’t Reach
While you will be following a whole new set of rankings, it is still important not to reach for quarterbacks. This is especially true in 12 team leagues. Fourteen-team leagues and larger, on the other hand, may necessitate a bit of a reach. If you have not drafted a QB after the first couple of rounds, it is still advisable to only select one who presents some semblance of value. Waiting for veterans in startups is a perfectly sound strategy. As alluded to above, older QBs like Rivers and Brady can still be had significantly later in redrafts.

Break Rankings into Tiers
Breaking quarterback rankings into tiers prior to your draft can be extremely useful. As always, it is a helpful visualization tool, but it also will help you avoid reaching for a player based on the position he plays. Tier setting should be a subjective process based on your personal preferences. Our 2019 ECR also has rankings broken into tiers.

Superflex Does Not Mean Two-QB
While everyone will ideally roster two QBs, this is not always feasible. Yes, QBs take on added importance in Superflex leagues, but you shouldn’t draft Eli Manning before Nick Chubb or Brandin Cooks. With this being the case, there are scenarios where you may end up with only one starter. This is especially true in leagues with more than 12 teams. You should, however, attempt to roster at least two. The QB1 or QB2 you end up with will, on average, produce points at a much higher rate than the RB3 or WR4 occupying your flex spot. To illustrate, let’s take a look at the average 2018 points for the QB2’s, WR4’s and RB3’s based on overall points. 

Position QB 13-24 WR 37-48 RB 25-36
Average Points 17.2 8.9 9.75

 
Mock Draft
Mock drafting is an essential part of draft prep. This is true for both novice and expert drafters. ADP is a fine guideline, but an actual draft room can throw some curveballs. Mahomes’ Superflex ADP is 1.05, but he commonly goes as high as 1.02. While Carson Wentz might be your target in the mid-third, he may end up going in the early-second by someone following a different set of rankings than you. Generally, players do not draft based on ADP, but rather a combination of their own thoughts, our ECR, or a subset of them. Let’s take a look at some notable ECR vs ADP disparities in superflex formats for the quarterback position. These QBs may be taken earlier than their ADP suggests.

Name QB ECR QB ADP
Russell Wilson 6th 8th
Cam Newton 9th 10th
Jameis Winston 11th 14th
Jimmy Garoppolo 22nd 12th
Kyler Murray 13th 21st

 

Strategies

Two Studs
The two-stud strategy often calls for an owner to spend two of his first three picks on quarterbacks. This approach has its benefits, as it assures consistent high-end scoring from your QB and Superflex spots. While you will enjoy an advantage at the QB position, following this strategy means you may be a little light at receiver and/or running back. Owners who employ this strategy must be aggressive in landing their sleepers.

One Top-Tier, One Mid-Tier QB
Perhaps the most common strategy is to focus on grabbing one top-tier quarterback and another from a middle tier. This still calls for spending two of your first six or seven picks on a quarterback, but it allows you to roster some top talent at other positions. With this philosophy, it is important to be aware that positional runs will dictate when you may have to draft a second quarterback. Managers utilizing this strategy may target Wentz in the third and a high-upside option like Kyler Murray in the late sixth or seventh.

Late-Round QBs
A combination of mid-tier or lower-tier quarterbacks is a strategy some owners have chosen to utilize. This allows you to stuff your roster with stud skill players during the first five to six rounds when the rest of the league is rostering QBs. You cannot go into the draft with a specific round in mind as to when you will start focusing on the position. Rather, you will need to watch the draft board for positional runs, bearing your draft slot and the number of picks between your next selection in mind. Be cognizant that FFC ADP data suggests 25 QBs will be off of the board by the end of round eight. Some popular late-round QB targets include Dak Prescott at 6.10, Josh Allen at 7.02, Kirk Cousins at 7.01, Murray at 7.05, Lamar Jackson at 8.11, and Matthew Stafford at 8.12.

Larger Leagues
The majority of the information available regarding Superflex leagues pertains to 12-team leagues specifically. With that in mind, let’s take a look at my two most recent startup drafts in larger leagues.

The first draft is a 16-teamer that took place in late February. In this league, I decided to go with the late-round QB strategy. This was my first Superflex experience in a league of this size. With the 1.14 pick, I selected Joe Mixon since he was the best running back available. With pick 2.03 I really wanted another running back, but rationalized that a true stud wide receiver would be more critical than a second running back. I also reasoned that I would be able to hit on one of the rookie draft picks I intended to trade for later. As such, I took Mike Evans.

Since I passed on a running back at 2.03, I had my heart set on one with my third overall pick. After Wentz and Cam Newton were taken earlier in the third, my mind was made up. With Kareem Hunt suspended for eight games, he appeared to be a great value with the 48th overall pick of this dynasty. He was my selection at 3.14. At 4.03, I opted for stud tight end O.J. Howard. Rivers was my first quarterback selected at pick 5.06. Since this draft took place prior to free agency. I selected Teddy Bridgewater at 10.3 and spent pick 19.4 on Ryan Fitzpatrick

The second league was a 14-teamer with an interesting twist. We were all assigned co-managers. This was an interesting exercise, as we both looked to build a consensus before making our selections. We decided to go with a stud and dud strategy. The dud does not mean someone like Manning, but rather a firm QB2. With pick 1.02, we decided on Mahomes. This draft took place after the NFL Draft, and thus we had a firmer grasp of what values we would target. We determined ahead of time to target a running back at pick 2.13. Le’Veon Bell was the highest remaining rusher on our list. At 3.2 we fortified the tight end position with Travis Kelce. At 4.13, we decided to be aggressive in targeting Josh Jacobs. In the fifth round, we rounded out our QB situation with bounce-back candidate Stafford. These examples illustrate not only Superflex draft strategies, but also how much earlier QBs may be taken in larger league sizes. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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