One of the toughest strategies to master for fantasy football owners is deciding when to take a quarterback in a fantasy football draft. A big reason for that is when an NFL team builds a franchise, quarterback is the most important position. Therefore, novice fantasy owners make the mistake that quarterback is just as important in fantasy football. The problem with that faulty logic is that quarterback is the third most important position in fantasy football, behind the running back and wide receiver positions.
The reason for the devaluation of the fantasy quarterback compared to the NFL value is the rules of fantasy football and statistical trends in the NFL that have resulted in an explosion of passing numbers in recent years. Let’s start with the rules of fantasy football. Most leagues will allow you to play two running backs, two wide receivers, and a flex position that can be a running back, tight end, or wide receiver. That means that a fantasy owner only needs to start one quarterback per week. Most leagues will either have 10 or 12 fantasy owners, which means that only a third of the available quarterbacks will actually be starting in lineups in a given week. When you compare that to 30 to 36 wide receivers and 30 to 36 running backs being in fantasy starting lineups every week, the demand for wide receivers and running backs is much higher than for quarterbacks.
That higher demand causes good running backs and wide receivers go much faster in fantasy football drafts, which makes it harder to find proven running backs and wide receivers in the later rounds. Once you hit the middle to later rounds, you are taking players that are part of a committee, rookies that may or may not explode that year and earn higher than expected playing time, and veterans that have injury issues or younger players pushing them for playing time.
My rule in fantasy football is that I usually do not take a quarterback before the seventh round. I find it more desirable to stream two good quarterbacks that I take after the seventh round versus one great quarterback that I take in the second or third round and one quarterback taken with a very late pick that I have as injury insurance and for the bye week. Taking two streaming quarterbacks over an elite quarterback option has a lot of advantages to it, which I will discuss below.
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1) Taking a quarterback in the second or third round leaves you weaker at running back and wide receiver
I talked about this in my introduction, taking a quarterback in the second or third round leaves me with one fewer elite running back or wide receiver. Most websites have Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes as the number one quarterback in fantasy football drafts with an ECR of 33.0 and an ADP of 27.0.
That means that Mahomes will cost a fantasy owner a third-round pick, which is where players like Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green and Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper are going in fantasy drafts. Even if he goes where his ECR is at (35.0), that is still in the neighborhood of where players like Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones and Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack are going in fantasy drafts. I would rather have one of those solid wide receivers or running backs in that spot than a quarterback[, a position where it is easy to stream two good options.
2) Elite fantasy quarterbacks are easily found in the later rounds
Take a look at 2018. Most people had Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers as their top fantasy quarterback. Another hot quarterback was Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Both players were going in the third or fourth round and had good fantasy seasons. Rodgers finished 2018 sixth among fantasy quarterbacks with 312.5 fantasy points and Watson was fourth with 331.9 fantasy points.
The problem for those fantasy owners that owned Rodgers and Watson is that they sacrificed depth at both the wide receiver and running back positions, and had they waited until after the sixth round, they could have had Mahomes, who was going in the 13th round and scored 417 points. They could have had Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who was going in the 11th round and scored 354 points. They could have had Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was going in the 10th round and scored 341 points. Finally, they could have had Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck, who was going in the ninth round and scored 327.1 points.
It does not make much sense to take a quarterback in the second or third round, because quarterbacks score a lot of points and very good quarterbacks are often available later in fantasy drafts. It makes a lot more sense to go with proven running backs and wide receivers early before those players are unavailable than taking the quarterback later in the fantasy football draft.
3) There is an abundance of high scoring fantasy quarterbacks
Quarterbacks score a lot of points in fantasy football. There were only 40 players that averaged more than 15.0 fantasy points per game and played at least 10 games. If you break that down by position, 21 of those 40 players were quarterbacks, 10 of them were wide receivers, and nine of them were running backs.
I think if you asked most people who had more fantasy points in 2018, New York Giants QB Eli Manning or Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs, most people would guess that Diggs was the better fantasy player. Diggs was more valuable to fantasy owners, but on a straight points-scored scale, the people that would guess Diggs are wrong. Manning had 240 fantasy points in 2018 compared to the 215.3 points that Diggs scored. Diggs was not a bad fantasy receiver, as he ranked 10th among all fantasy wide receivers in half-PPR leagues. That is just the nature of the scoring in fantasy football. The 16th-ranked fantasy quarterback can also be the 22nd-ranked fantasy player across all positions.
You really are not gaining a significant advantage over your other fantasy owners when you take a fantasy quarterback in the second or third round. Someone that takes a quarterback in the eighth or ninth round is probably going to have a player that can score healthy point totals most weeks. What you are missing out on is an elite fantasy receiver or running back.
There were only 15 wide receivers that tallied over 160 points or 10 points per game over a 16-game schedule. There were only 20 running backs that hit the same threshold. Those proven players are not around in the middle to later rounds. A fantasy owner has only the first four or five rounds to take the proven players at running back and wide receiver that should be safe plays in 2019 barring injury. Taking a quarterback early gives fantasy owners one less chance to add those limited proven players at the more important position of running back and wide receiver.
4) Streaming quarterbacks allows you to play favorable matchups
Let’s go with Aaron Rodgers in this example because last year he was one of the earliest quarterbacks taken in fantasy football drafts and he will likely be off the board in the first four or five rounds this year due to his popularity and his consistent fantasy production over the last decade. His current ADP is 55, but he is a prime candidate to go earlier than that, because people love taking household name quarterbacks earlier than they are supposed to take them. The problem when you take a player as good as Rodgers is that you are committed to playing him every week, regardless of matchup.
He may have some really good games this year. He has a very attractive Week 7 matchup against the Oakland Raiders at home. Week 12 at the San Francisco 49ers could result in a monster game. If he is healthy for those games, you are going to start him with peace of mind. However, he also plays at the Chicago Bears in Week 1 and at the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16. Is he going to be someone you want to play in those tougher matchups?
The problem is that you don’t really have a choice but to play Rodgers every week because you used a high draft pick on him and he can have a monster game against any opponent. Your backup quarterback will probably be someone like Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr, who plays at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11 during the Packers’ bye week. Carr has an ADP of 169.0 that you can take right before you select your kicker. Week 11 is a long ways away and you may not want to have a dead roster spot for 11 weeks with a backup quarterback you never play. You may just go with one quarterback and stream a waiver wire player in Week 11.
Nobody in his or her right mind is going to draft Aaron Rodgers in the fourth round and handcuff him with Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield in the fifth round. If you do that, you will be streaming third-string running backs and losing lots of fantasy games. Furthermore, nobody in their right mind is going to bench Rodgers in Week 2 at the Minnesota Vikings and play Carr, because he has a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. That is a good way to leave 30 points on your bench or have Carr score two points because inconsistent players do not always take advantage of great matchups.
Taking a star quarterback means you are committed to him the entire season, against both the elite fantasy defenses and the bad fantasy defenses. Unfortunately, even if Rodgers averages 20 fantasy points per game, it does not mean they come evenly every week. In the weeks where he is not able to reach his average due to matchups, you are going to have to hope the unproven running backs and wide receivers you took later in the fantasy draft carry the day. It is much harder to have wide receivers and running backs carry your roster consistently when the depth on your roster at those positions has been sacrificed to take an elite quarterback.
5) Streaming good quarterbacks can equal or exceed the production of an elite quarterback
I do not want to go with Patrick Mahomes for this example because he was a late round pick last year that ended up having 417.0 fantasy points when the next closest quarterback had 354.0 points. Furthermore, Mahomes was not on the fantasy radar until after the 10th round last year, so nobody should have had him as their clear cut starting quarterback in fantasy football drafts in 2018.
Let’s go with Watson for this example. Watson was the second quarterback off the board in many fantasy football drafts last year and he finished with 331.9 fantasy points, which was fourth in the NFL. He basically lived up to the ranking that fantasy owners had for him when they drafted him. Now, let’s say that you waited until the early ninth round and took Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins and handcuffed him with Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who was available in the 13th round in many leagues. What would it look like if you streamed the correct one each week?
Prescott tallied only 285.7 fantasy points, which was 10th in the NFL. He ended up exceeding fantasy expectations. Cousins had only 282.1 fantasy points. He was probably a slight disappointment given the strength of his running backs and wide receivers. Neither one of them on their own averaged what Watson averaged over the course of the season. However, if you picked the right player each week, you would have ended up with 370.5 fantasy points, which would have been second only to Mahomes and his 417 fantasy points.
Critics of that analysis will point out that you are not guaranteed to pick the right player every week, which is a fair point. Cousins was the better fantasy quarterback nine weeks of the season and Prescott was the better quarterback seven weeks of the season. In Week 12 they both had 27.4 fantasy points, making that week a tie. A fantasy owner could guess the wrong player many of those weeks and not hit the 370.5 fantasy points that playing the optimal player would produce.
However, I think most fantasy owners would have picked the right player the majority of the weeks. Cousins was the bigger name early in the year and most people would have just played Cousins to start the year when he outscored Prescott in Weeks 1-5. In the second half of the season, the Cowboys picked up WR Amari Cooper in a trade and Prescott had the advantage seven times in the final 11 games. I think most fantasy owners would have noticed those trends once Cooper joined the roster and adjusted accordingly.
Even if a fantasy owner had just played Cousins in Week 1-5, seen Prescott have the big 29.5 fantasy point game in Week 6 and switched to Prescott after that and played Prescott every week except the Week 7 bye, the result would have been 340.5 fantasy points, which would have been 0.5 points away from Ben Roethlisberger’s 341.0 fantasy points and still more than Watson’s 331.9 fantasy points.
There just is no reason to take a fantasy quarterback in the third or fourth round and be committed to that player through the good matchups and the bad matchups. I would much rather have the extra elite running back or wide receiver and have the flexibility to stream good quarterbacks in great matchups than be tied to one quarterback the entire season that may break his collarbone in Week 4 anyway and now I am streaming waiver wire quarterbacks for two months. Two good quarterbacks allow the flexibility to play the better matchup and also act as a great insurance policy if one underperforms or suffers an injury.
Great Streaming Combinations for 2019
Here are five streaming combinations that will work great in your fantasy football drafts this year.
1) Matt Ryan (ATL) | Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Ryan was the second-ranked fantasy quarterback last year, yet his ADP is 75, which means you could easily fill out your roster with running backs and wide receivers in the first six rounds and grab Ryan in the seventh round. You can pair him with Cousins, who was a slight disappointment last year from a fantasy perspective, but has an ADP of 138.0. Cousins is one of the better bargains in fantasy football this year at the quarterback position. His failures as an NFL quarterback are making people incorrectly sour on him as a fantasy quarterback.
Ryan has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when Cousins is on bye and Cousins has a game at the Kansas City Chiefs when Ryan has his bye. Both of those defenses were in the top five for most points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks in 2018. Ryan will be the better play most weeks, but Cousins has some good streaming value in the better matchups and he is an excellent insurance policy if Ryan were to go down with an injury.
2) Cam Newton (CAR) | Dak Prescott (DAL)
Newton had a down year last year with a shoulder injury, but he should rebound this year and his mobility allows him to score a lot of fantasy points with his feet. His ADP is currently 89.0, which means that he should be available in the ninth or 10th round and Prescott has an ADP of 135.0, which means he should be available in the 13th or 14th round.
Their bye weeks work well together. Prescott had 725 yards passing, four passing touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown in two games against the Philadelphia Eagles last year. He plays at home against the Eagles in Week 7, when Carolina is on bye. Newton has a road game against a bad San Francisco 49ers defense in Week 8 when Dallas is on bye. Newton will probably be the better play the rest of the way most weeks, but Prescott will be a good insurance policy if Newton breaks down at the end of the season.
3) Kyler Murray (ARI) | Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Rookie quarterbacks can have growing pains and Big Ben has a really nice schedule at the beginning of the year. He plays at New England, Seattle, at San Francisco, and Cincinnati in the first four games. You probably will not need to play Murray in any of those games, as Big Ben should be just fine early in the year.
Murray has a nice stretch from Week 5 to Week 11 where he plays at Cincinnati, Atlanta, at the New York Giants, at New Orleans, San Francisco, at Tampa Bay, and at San Francisco. The highest ranked fantasy quarterback defense from last year is the Giants at 16th and four of those games are against teams that were in the top five for most fantasy points allowed last year (Tampa Bay – 28th, New Orleans – 30th, Cincinnati – 31st, and Atlanta – 32nd). They should pair very well together with Big Ben being the starter early in the year and Murray being an excellent streamer or insurance policy if Big Ben goes down with an injury. Murray has an ADP of 104.0 and Big Ben has an ADP of 116.0. Both players should be available after the 10th round.
4) Philip Rivers (LAC) | Jameis Winston (TB)
Rivers has started 208 consecutive games and he is among the most durable players in league history. The last six years he has finished sixth, 12th, 11th, 14th, eighth, and 11th among fantasy quarterbacks. You can basically draft him and know that you are going to have elite quarterback play for the season, especially against the good matchups.
Rivers is 37 years old, though, and it is risky to not have a backup quarterback paired with him. He also has not finished in the top five among fantasy quarterbacks since he finished fourth in 2010. He is good enough to use as a starter most weeks, but probably not quite good enough to accompany with a weak handcuff.
Winston is a good mix with Rivers. Winston is at Atlanta on Rivers’ bye week and Rivers is at Tennessee in Winston’s bye week. Winston will have more value later in the season with an easier schedule, but Rivers does play Oakland in Week 16. That is good because Winston is learning a new offense with new head coach Bruce Arians. He may very well play better football in the second half of the season when his familiarity with the offense will be better against a more favorable schedule. Rivers has an ADP of 113.0 and Winston has an ADP of 129.0.
5) Jared Goff (LAR) | Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Goff had a very disappointing Super Bowl, but he still had a monster regular season with 4,688 yards passing and 32 passing touchdowns. He was the seventh-ranked fantasy quarterback in the NFL and a bad Super Bowl is part of the reason he is the 10th-ranked fantasy quarterback with an ADP of 95.0. Given the quality of the offense in which he plays, he is a great bargain at that point.
I still would not want to go with just Goff and Garoppolo makes a lot of sense to pair with Goff. Garoppolo has an ADP of 147, so he should be available with one of your last picks. Those two being in the same division means three matchups against Arizona, two matchups against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati and Goff has two games against San Francisco, including one in Week 16.
Goff has the easier schedule the first eight weeks, in case Garappolo has a setback coming back from the ACL tear. He is at Tampa Bay in Week 4 when Garappolo has a bye week and Garappolo is at Arizona in Week 9. The NFC West plays a lot of bad defenses from their own division and the NFC South and taking these two quarterbacks in the same division allows fantasy owners to capitalize on that potentially great schedule.
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.
