As July 4th approaches, fantasy owners are left with one of their last few opportunities to successfully improve their teams via the trade market. Although the trade deadline for most leagues is weeks away, July 4th represents the unofficial tipping point for most fantasy owners.
With the long weekend on tap, many fantasy owners will take the opportunity to have a break from baseball. And when they return, they may not be quite as invested in putting in the effort to attempt to turn around a struggling fantasy team.
NFL training camps are on tap. The summer is flying by. The dedication level necessary to fix a flawed team will be high and held by few fantasy owners.
To the extent you’re looking to strike a deal, now is one of the last times you’ll have at your disposal the majority of your fantasy league. While the iron is hot, throw out some trade offers to try to fix any holes in your lineup.
As always, in any rotisserie league, consult our trade chart below. Updated each week, the chart helps you evaluate the fairness of any proposed deal.
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Manny Machado’s splits since joining the Padres:
- Mar/Apr: .236/.325/.368
- May: .283/.365/.485
- June (entering yesterday): .333/.389/.690
The steals may not be there, but Machado is (finally) shattering the myth that he cannot hit outside of Camden Yards. What may be more encouraging is that his statcast data is still well below what he had shown the past two seasons. In other words, the best may be yet to come.
Yordan Alvarez’s hot start has made him the fastest riser in the history of the trade chart. A 50% hard-hit rate and a 15.8% barrel rate. When you watch one of his at-bats, you see that he looks entirely comfortable at every turn. Buy high.
Brandon Woodruff’s 4.01 ERA obscures just how good he has been. His 3.07 FIP and 3.36 xFIP are far more indicative of the quality of his stuff. And his xFIP by month has decreased from 3.80 to 3.34 to 2.91. With a strikeout rate hovering at roughly 11 batters per nine innings, Woodruff is a reliable No. 2 starter in fantasy.
You don’t need any statcast data or metrics to explain Yasiel Puig’s rise. As with Machado, his splits tell the story:
- Mar/Apr: .192/.226/.354
- May: .245/.308/.429
- June: (entering yesterday when he homered again): .288/.325/.630
Unlike Machado, however, Puig is stealing bases and is one of the true power-speed threats in the game. As the weather has warmed up, so has Puig, and that should only continue.
Blake Snell is going through a rough patch at the moment, and so he drops in value, but not as much as many fantasy owners think he should. Snell’s velocity has held fine, and his slump appears to be much more about his sudden inability to command his secondary pitches, as evidenced by the fact that he has slowly upped his fastball usage to unsustainable levels. Issues like that, especially for a pitcher of Snell’s caliber, are usually easily correctable. So there’s no reason to sell Snell at much less than top dollar.
As for other significant fallers, Trevor Story, Tyler Glasnow, and Giancarlo Stanton are all dealing with significant injury concerns. Trading for players on the injured list who are facing lengthy recoveries is a dicey proposition, as shown by Glasnow’s setback. But if you are in a strong position and can afford to wait, go ahead and move in.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.