By The Numbers: Lucas Giolito, Austin Riley, Joe Musgrove

Lucas Giolito has a 1.48 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in seven starts since returning from a hamstring injury.

During this time frame, May’s pitcher of the month is 6-0 with 55 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. His 2.16 FIP matches Chris Sale for third behind Justin Verlander and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Even when including some uglier April turns, he brandishes a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 29.9% K rate this season.

Like Season 2 of Parks and Recreation or The Leftovers, Giolito has sharply shifted from slipping on thin ice to standing tall at the mountaintop. He has improved his K-BB rate by an astonishing 17.7%, which matches Luis Castillo’s mark in 2019. His FIP has dropped from 5.56 to 2.63, and the former premier prospect has bolstered his swinging-strike rate by five percent.

The 24-year-old has unlocked his hidden potential with a higher dosage of his best pitch. Per Baseball Savant, he has upped his changeup’s usage rate from 15.7 to 24.4%. It has yielded a .127 batting average and .181 wOBA with a 36.3% whiff rate. Abandoning a plodding sinker and refining his four-seamer have also gone a long way to igniting his believable breakout.

Wins are maddening and entirely unpredictable. When Andrew Cashner is better at something (6-2, 5.03 ERA) than Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA), you know it’s a useless stat that should vanish from the fantasy landscape for all eternity. But it sure helps that Giolito has dominated while working at least seven innings in five of his last six starts. Continuing to pile up victories for a White Sox squad that isn’t as bad as expected would merely be the cherry on top of his delicious 2019.

I recently bumped Giolito up to my SP33. If he keeps this up, he could invade the top 25 by the All-Star break.

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Austin Riley: 61.4% Contact Rate
Given his .320 batting average, one would assume Riley has made regular contact during his torrid debut. Not quite. Keon Broxton and Miguel Sano are the only active hitters with at least 50 plate appearances to post a lower contact rate than Riley. Nobody has a higher swinging-strike rate than the neophyte’s 21.2%. Hitting the baseball is typically a skill a batter must possess to submit a high average.

Even without these metrics, those enjoying the ride have to expect the wheels to slow down eventually. Those who added Riley never anticipated the career .284 minor league hitter to contribute significantly in this category anyway. An early 31.3% strikeout rate, an unfortunate start given his progress (19.1%) in Triple-A this season, should only reinforce that skepticism.

Luckily, we’re not here for singles. Riley has also scorched nine home runs in just 80 plate appearances. While nobody can sustain such a prodigious pace, the 22-year-old also belted 15 long balls in 162 Triple-A plate appearances prior to his promotion. Besides, he’s making his limited contact count. The third baseman-turned-outfielder has barreled nine of 49 batted balls, 27 of which he rocketed for an exit velocity of at least 95.0 miles per hour. Despite all of the aforementioned warning signs, Statcast still gives him a .307 expected batting average and .434 expected wOBA, as of Wednesday.

Is this a sell-high situation? Like everything else in life, it depends. If a leaguemate already perceives Riley as a top-50 hitter, trade him. Even in a dynasty, it’d be interesting to see just how much his stock has risen following 18 earth-shattering games. Just don’t feel compelled to cash out before the average falls. The 22-year-old could still hit .260 with 20 long balls going forward, and batting fifth or sixth in Atlanta’s star-fueled lineup will yield plenty of RBI opportunities. He’s not going to stay a superstar all season, but Riley is definitely a valuable piece to any mixed-league squad.

Joe Musgrove: 8.10 ERA in May
Remember when Musgrove didn’t allow an earned run through his first three outings and ended April with a 1.54 ERA? Probably not if you watched him pitch last month.

The 26-year-old righty validated the sleeper buzz through five dominant starts and a relief outing to begin 2019. He has since been unplayable, relinquishing 30 runs (27 earned) in his last 30 innings with a .370 wOBA in May. The monthly stats vary just a tad.

 
Given the vast extremes, it’s not surprising to discover that he benefited from some good fortune early before succumbing to some bad luck recently. While that table’s first row features his flattering FIP, a 3.91 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA pointed to trouble when a 3.1% HR/FB rate normalized. However, home runs weren’t the problem until serving up three long balls to the Brewers last week. A 46.3% strand rate was the worst of any starter in May. Given his prodding strikeout and walk numbers, it’s hard to take much solace in that fact. He could have been considerably unfortunate and yet still deserved a 5.00 ERA.

I’ve been admittedly slow to sour on the Pirates righty because of his early success and my high preseason expectations. And hey, believers can still point to his 3.60 FIP and 11.0% swinging-strike rate as reasons to stay optimistic. He can’t be this terrible, because practically no professional pitcher is this bad. But instead of celebrating a burgeoning SP3, I’m hoping he rebounds into a top-50 starter to trust in the majority of matchups.

Right now, Musgrove can’t even be trusted to clear that lowered bar. At least he took a step in the right direction — and saved his roster spot in smaller mixed leagues — by allowing three runs in eight strong innings against the Braves on Wednesday night.

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