I generally try to avoid putting repeat names on this list, at least until we reach the second half of the season. After all, I want to give you as many players to consider as possible.
If I did do repeats, there would certainly be plenty of options. Take my first pitcher buy/sell of the year when I recommended you buy low on Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. Two months later, I still do! OK, maybe Nola a little less than the others — that walk rate is a little scary. But I digress.
Gerrit Cole. Chris Sale. Jacob deGrom. The list of ace-caliber pitchers who don’t currently have ace-caliber numbers is a lengthy one, but don’t worry. I’ve got some a whole new list of names for you to consider this week, so let’s get to it.
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Players to Buy
Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI)
Pivetta was a trendy sleeper pick in fantasy drafts this spring thanks to his underlying numbers from last season, which suggested he deserved much better than the 4.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP he produced. Instead, Pivetta’s numbers got even worse over his first four starts of the 2019 season, necessitating a trip to the minor leagues to get back on track. In his first start since getting recalled at the end of May, Pivetta produced his typical disappointing line (3 ERs in 5 IP), but then he went out and spun six scoreless innings with nine punchouts against the fearsome Dodgers lineup on Sunday.
There are some pitchers who just never live up to what their peripherals say they should be, but Pivetta is still too early into his career to say that is the case with him. We know he can miss bats, and we know he plays for a National League team that should provide him with plenty of run support. His xFIP and SIERA both indicated that he deserved a mid-3.00s ERA last season, and maybe this will be the year he achieves it. With a 6.14 ERA, it shouldn’t cost a ton to find out.
Players To Offer For Pivetta: Zach Eflin, Zach Davies, Christian Walker, Alex Gordon
Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)
Fresh off his worst outing of the season (6 ERs on 10 hits in 4 IP against Pittsburgh), Woodruff’s ERA lept up from 3.22 to 3.82. Sounds like a buying opportunity to me! Woodruff’s .324 BABIP allowed in the 12th-highest in baseball right now, and once that normalizes, his strong 4.21 strikeout-to-walk ratio will pay further dividends. He hasn’t been hugely unlucky or anything, but the advanced indicators show that his numbers should be a little better than they are — and they’re pretty good to begin with.
Players To Offer For Woodruff: Domingo German, Mike Minor, Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Santana
Tyler Mahle (SP – CIN)
I wrote about Mahle a couple of weeks ago as an under-the-radar waiver pickup, but if you happen to be in one of the 11 percent of leagues where he’s owned, he’s a good buy-low candidate as well. Mahle’s 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks among the top-20 starters in baseball, but he’s been undone by a 20.0 percent HR/FB ratio and .321 BABIP allowed that are both among the 15-highest marks for starters. Yes, Mahle may be a bit BABIP- and homer-prone, but not to this extent. His xFIP and SIERA both expect a mid-3.00s ERA going forward, and even if his batted ball outcomes only partially normalize, his 4.26 ERA should still drop by almost half a run.
Players To Offer For Mahle: Yonny Chirinos, Zach Eflin, Eric Hosmer, Kole Calhoun
Players to Sell
Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP – LAD)
With a shiny 1.48 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, Ryu has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, trailing only Justin Verlander in fantasy value among starting pitchers. Ryu also posted a sub-2.00 ERA last season, so it’s safe to say that what he’s doing is no fluke. He’s done so in large part by issuing an absurdly low 0.62 walks per nine innings, a mark that is less than half that of any other starter in the majors.
But Ryu has also had his share of good fortune. His 92.9 percent left-on-base percentage is the second-highest in baseball — again trailing only Verlander — and his .253 BABIP allowed is the 11th-lowest in the league. So while Ryu should continue to be a well above-average pitcher, it’s best to expect an ERA around 3.00 going forward. Then there’s the question of how many innings the injury-prone left-hander has left in him. He hasn’t topped 152 innings since his rookie year and hasn’t thrown more than 127 innings since his second season in the big leagues. There’s no reason to expect Ryu to fall apart, but his value is likely at its peak.
Players To Target For Ryu: Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, J.D. Martinez, Trea Turner
Trevor Richards (SP – MIA)
Richards had some buzz around him heading into the 2019 season, but a lot of that hype had evaporated by mid-May, when his ERA sat in the mid-4.00s. Since then, however, Richards has allowed just two runs on 11 hits with 19 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings, dropping his ERA all the way down to 3.53. His advanced stats, including his bloated walk rate and fortunate BABIP and strand rate, suggest he is still the mediocre pitcher he looked like before the hot streak, but his recent form could nonetheless open up a window to trade him in some leagues.
There are some obvious obstacles to dealing Richards, starting with the weak-hitting team he plays for and the fact he was waiver-wire fodder in a lot of leagues just a couple of weeks ago. But at 26 years old, Richards is still young enough to perhaps convince someone in your league that they are witnessing a breakout. If so, take what you can get.
Players To Target For Richards: Tyler Mahle, Kyle Gibson, Justin Upton, Jurickson Profar
Spencer Turnbull (SP – DET)
Like Richards, Turnbull is a 26-year-old starter on a weak-hitting, rebuilding team who has better surface numbers than his peripherals would support. In Turnbull’s case, there is no single indicator that is completely out-of-whack, but his .290 BABIP allowed, 75.1 percent strand rate, and 9.5 percent HR/FB ratio all appear due for a bit of regression, which would have the cumulative effect of raising his ERA by at least a run going forward, if not more. Given his mediocre strikeout and walk rates and middling win potential, Turnbull is simply not a guy who can return fantasy value with an ERA around 4.00. If someone in your league is enticed by his 2.84 ERA and willing to give up something of value for him, don’t be afraid to make the move.
Players To Target For Turnbull: Nick Pivetta, Jose Leclerc, Franmil Reyes, Justin Smoak
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.