We’ve spent the past few weeks looking at wide receivers and running backs to avoid at their current average draft position or ADP. Next up, we’ll ask our writers for the players that they are targeting the most based on where they are being drafted. We’ll get it started with wide receivers to target at their current ADP.
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Which wide receiver presents the most value based on our consensus ADP?
Tyler Lockett (SEA): ADP WR25
While I have little doubt that it will rise, Tyler Lockett’s current ADP of WR25 is preposterous. Setting everything else aside, the man was second on his team in targets last season and still finished as the WR18. Doug Baldwin averaged 103 targets and 13.2 red zone looks over the last five seasons, and he’s gone. His retirement leaves Lockett as the unquestioned number one receiver in Seattle — an honor that has resulted in an average finish of WR12 since 2015. The Seahawks have already stated that they plan to move Lockett around in order to provide him with advantageous matchups. He should comfortably eclipse 100 targets and might flirt with WR1 status…and he’s going in the fifth round.
– Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
Christian Kirk (ARI): ADP WR37
Listed as the WR37, Christian Kirk is going just inside the top 100 picks. That’s way too late. Last year, Kirk recorded 43 receptions for 590 yards and three touchdowns in just 12 games. More importantly, he operated on one of the worst offenses in NFL history. The 2019 Cardinals have upgrades across the board from coach to scheme to quarterback to fellow receivers. I know there is a risk that no single Cardinals WR sees any sort of heavy targeting and it’s very much a spread the ball out offensive philosophy. I am not worried. Kirk is the most talented WR on the team, and I believe in Kyler Murray as a future elite QB in this league. The Cardinals will go from running the fewest amount of plays per drive to one of the most. Kirk will have ample opportunity, and I think he has legitimate WR1 upside if things break right.
– Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13)
Golden Tate (NYG): ADP WR39
Currently, Golden Tate is being ranked as the 39th wide receiver. Last year was not Tate’s best and his ADP suffers because of this. According to Fantasy Data, Tate was 34th in fantasy points among receivers last year. Most of this is because of his move to Philadelphia mid-season. He took a long time to acclimatize to a new offense that did not know how to use him. In his seven games with Detroit, Tate was his usual productive self, having 44 receptions for 517 yards and three touchdowns. At that rate, he would have ended up with 101 receptions for 1,182 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games. This would have been his second best season ever. He might be starting on a new team again, and that team might be more abysmal than Detroit on offense, but at least he’s starting the year on the Giants and will have time to get into a rhythm with Eli Manning. Tate has never finished below WR34 in fantasy in the past six years. Some may argue that he is 30 years old and past his age apex. However, he is not a big-bodied receiver that seems to suffer from production regression later in their careers. He’s solidified to play in his usual slot spot and New York has invested a pretty penny in Tate. He will essentially fill the void left by Odell Beckham Jr. He won’t be able to be as productive and efficient as the younger departing receiver but there’s a lot of gas still left in his tank. Manning likes to throw shorter passes these days so Tate will see a lot of targets and because of his great hands, a lot of receptions. The only other players vying for targets will be Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley. Don’t be surprised if Tate finishes this year as a low-end wide receiver two. The best thing is you will not have to reach for Tate as many believe his ADP is too kind. Feel confident that by drafting Golden Tate around his WR39 ADP you are getting an incredible discount. He could be the guy in 2019 that helps you win your league.
– Marc Mathyk (@masterjune70)
Anthony Miller (CHI): ADP WR49
Miller had a very nice rookie campaign with 33 receptions for 432 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. He accomplished that despite playing with a rookie head coach, Matt Nagy, a second-year quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, and a shoulder injury that lingered most of the 2018 season and caused Miller to miss one game. This entire offense should be improved with Trubisky entering his third season and the other players all having a second year in Nagy’s system. Miller was 59th among fantasy receivers last year and he was just scratching the surface when it comes to his enormous upside. He is currently only the 49th ranked fantasy receiver in PPR leagues and his overall ranking is 125 in PPR leagues. That is an excellent bargain for an emerging player on an emerging offense. If he is available in the 10th or 11th round, I will happily take Miller in that spot over more established veterans that do not have his upside. Barring a setback in his rehab from shoulder surgery, Miller should be ready for a breakout season in 2019.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Robert Woods (LAR): ADP WR17
Woods as WR17? Don’t mind if I do. Heading into last year, I was sure that Los Angeles’ stacked offense couldn’t support that many weapons as viable fantasy starters. It turns out I was as wrong as Ben Affleck’s Batman was about Superman. In the seven full games Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp have played together, Woods leads the way with a 24 percent target share as all three WRs landed among the top-11 in fantasy points during that span. Sean McVay’s “11” offense has provided more than enough fantasy goodness to go around and Woods, an afterthought in Buffalo, has been a primary benefactor. Through 20 games with the Rams, he’s averaging 77 yards per game and has notched 12 scores. He was WR10 in PPR last year and his per-game averages projected over a full season put him at nearly 1,150 yards. So give me the borderline WR1 at WR2 prices all day.
– Brandon Katz (@great_katzby)
A.J. Green (CIN): ADP WR14
It says a lot about the current state of the NFL when the WR who is sixth all-time in receiving yards per game is still in the prime of his career and is being drafted as the 14th WR. With the Bengal’s regression over the past several seasons, A.J. Green seems to be the forgotten player in the “Best WR in the NFL” discussions. A player that can put up the numbers he does while catching passes from Andy Dalton should be receiving extra praise rather than seemingly becoming disregarded by the media. Green was healthy for just eight games last season and finished with the same number of TD receptions as T.Y., Woods, Odell, and Keenan Allen. He even had one more than Brandin Cooks who is the next WR behind AJ in ADP. Green’s 16-game pace measures out to 90 receptions on 152 targets for 1,374 yards and 12 TDs. Those are top-10 numbers in every category, including FPPG in which he would’ve been tied with JuJu for ninth at 18.6. The current perception around Green is trending down despite coming off a season in which he outscored a 1,500-yard receiver in Mike Evans. The fact that A.J. Green is ranked behind Stefon Diggs, who set a career high of 1,021 receiving yards last year, is laughable. He is by far the lowest ranked WR who could reasonably make a push for the overall WR 1, as it was just two seasons ago when he WAS the WR1 in FPPG. Green is currently going in the fourth round on average in 10-team leagues which deserves an automatic selection and consideration as a target to reach for in the third.
– James Esposito (@PropZillaa)
Michael Gallup (DAL): ADP WR69
Gallup is a late-round flyer WR target that is basically going undrafted as WR69 (187 overall) that could potentially be a league-winner. Gallup’s ADP is much too low as the second option in a viable offensive scheme where he recorded 507 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. He underperformed his fantasy expectations last year but there were facets of his game to be excited about. He ranked 13th in total aDOT at 15.4 yards per target even though Gallup and Dak had trouble connecting. Gallup fell in the bottom half of the league in catch rate converting only 50% of his targets into receptions. Dallas didn’t draft any WRs this year that would threaten Gallup’s playing time, and he has third-round draft capital. Fantasy players should expect Gallup to see positive regression in passing efficiency producing a higher catch rate. Essentially, Gallup is a free pick, going toward the end of drafts and is in position to improve upon last year’s disappointment and outperform his current ADP.
– Chuck Gioffre (@cgioffre34)
N’Keal Harry (NE): ADP WR35
Based on current ADP, there are quite a few wide receivers that stand out as obvious potential values at the wide receiver position. However, there is one that truly stands out. N’Keal Harry is currently the 35th wide receiver off of the board. N’Keal should be considered a guarantee to finish among the top-24 receivers, and in all likelihood will push for WR1 status this season. Harry could not have landed in a better offense for his skill set, and with a barren depth chart in New England, Harry has already started working with the ones. Harry is an explosive receiver who shines both downfield on contested catches and in the short game. The Patriots are desperate for talent on offense, and N’Keal is currently their most talented vertical option. The current ADP on Harry is why drafting early is often so rewarding. Take advantage where possible.
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)
T.Y. Hilton (IND): ADP WR10
Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (WR10) is currently being drafted with the 26th pick overall. That’s terrific value for the WR1 in one of the league’s best offenses. The addition of rookie WR Parris Campbell should only stand to help Hilton. Ever since the retirement of Colts legendary WR Reggie Wayne, Hilton has been the lone threat remaining at the WR position. With the lack of playmakers around him, Hilton has consistently seen double teams and is usually the defense’s top priority when it comes to stopping the deep ball. Adding a speedster like Campbell will force defenses to keep an eye on him at all times, giving Hilton plenty of one-on-one opportunities to exploit. Looking back at Hilton’s 2018 season, there is a lot to like. In only 14 games, he totaled 76 catches, 1,270 yards, and six touchdowns. I understand that 6 TDs for a WR1 may not seem like the most impressive number, but Hilton has shown he can be highly effective even in games where he doesn’t hit pay dirt. In his final six games of last season, Hilton did not score once and yet he still averaged 17.75 fantasy points per game. Over that six-game span, Hilton amassed a whopping 685 yards on 57 receptions and had an average of 114 yards per game. Everyone knows touchdowns are the hardest stat to predict for any player, that is why having someone that can be productive even without scoring is absolutely huge. In 2018, Hilton led all Colts pass catchers with 120 targets. The next closest was Chester Rogers at 72. That’s nearly a 50-target gap. If you compare that to other WRs being taken in the same range, you will see a huge discrepancy. The gap between Adam Thielen’s targets and Stefon Diggs was only seven. Rams WRs Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks only had a 15-target difference. The target volume that Hilton consistently sees is remarkable. Over the last seven seasons, Hiltons has had at least 109 targets in six of seven campaigns with five of those seven exceeding 120 targets. There is no trait more valuable in fantasy than volume, never forget that. Regardless of league size, getting T.Y. Hilton in the third or fourth round is simply a deal too good to pass up.
– Eli Berkovits (@PTTF_Eli)
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): ADP WR45
A wideout I am grabbing in every mock and likely every draft this season is Larry Fitzgerald. He is criminally undervalued thus far in fantasy drafts coming in around WR45 which means you can draft him as your WR3 or even WR4. People seem to have quickly forgotten that before last season Fitz had three straight years with over 100 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards. He finished as the overall WR4 in PPR leagues as recently as 2017 and before last season hadn’t finished worse than WR11 in that prolific three-season stretch. I know last season wasn’t great, but that Cardinals offense never had a chance with its “brain trust” and posed a threat that even the future HOFer couldn’t defeat. The Cardinals offense will look completely different in 2019 with unproven talents in both head coach Kliff Kingsbury and number one rookie draft pick Kyler Murray in control. The final product may look shaky and unpolished when it comes down to real-life performance, especially with a sub-par offensive line, but with Kingsbury’s past usage of an air raid scheme, we should see high volume at the very least which is where Fitzgerald can feast. There is no risk at his current ADP whatsoever and you could be rewarded with a WR1 in the mid rounds.
– John Ferguson (@FantasyFerguson)
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