In addition to checking out sample size metrics from FanGraphs, fellow FantasyPros writer Max Freeze has done research on when certain stats stabilize. One of the earliest ones is exit velocity, starting at around 16 games. Lucky for us, we have nearly doubled that, so the stabilization of exit velocity is key to determining if a hitter has “earned” their surface-level stats so far. We will take a deeper dive on several players, grouped in different categories, based on certain thoughts the fantasy community had about them during draft season. All exit velo and hard hit rates are provided from Baseball Savant.

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Surprises

Carlos Santana (1B – CLE)
Santana has been smoking the ball (95.1 MPH average exit velocity), and ranks in the 98th percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His six mile per hour increase in exit velocity from 2018 is very much a surprise from the 33-year-old. However, his launch angle is only 4.9 degrees. This very low launch angle is stymying some of his power, given that he has just four homers, and ranks in just the 64th percentile in xSLG. He needs to get that launch angle up to capitalize on this increase in exit velocity. He does have three homers in his last four games, including a 104 MPH homer off of Caleb Smith, at a launch angle of 28 degrees. What was once thought to be an asset in OBP or points leagues only, Santana is proving he is worth much more than that.

Yoan Moncada (2B/3B – CWS)
Moncada is the breakout star of 2019 so far. Much of this is due to his increase in exit velocity of four miles per hour, as well as a near five percent increase in barrel percentage. While Santana is doing better in hard-hit rate, Moncada is holding his own in average exit velocity (94.7 miles per hour). His breakout has largely been due to a change in approach and being more aggressive earlier in the count. This aggressiveness is leading to harder hit balls, and subsequently a much better slash line (.298/.361/.521) than last year (.235/.315/.400). Unlike his teammate Tim Anderson, it looks like Moncada’s positive regression is real. If Moncada keeps this up, he should move his way up from the five-hole in the order, meaning more runs and RBI.

Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
Similarly to the other guys above, Swanson has seen an above-average increase in exit velocity, going from 86.8 MPH in 2018 to 91.9 MPH in 2019. This increase in average exit velocity has also resulted in a 14 percent increase in his hard-hit rate, both of which rank in the 86th percentile. His launch angle has been consistently in the barrel “sweet spot” over the last two years, placing himself in the top seven percentile in barrel percentage. So, it’s not a coincidence that his wRC+ has jumped 36 points, and his .262/.331/.523 slash line has earned him the number two or six spot in the batting order in the last several games. His 116 wRC+ is ahead of names like Adalberto Mondesi, Corey Seager, and yes, Trevor Story.

Other Surprises:

• Christian Walker (1B – ARI)
  97th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Only concern is playing time when Jake Lamb comes back.
• Hunter Dozier (1B – KC)
  96th percentile in exit velo, 77th in hard-hit rate. Elite walk rate to put him in top two percentile in wOBA. Only owned in 2/3 of ESPN leagues — go scoop him up.
• Josh Bell (1B – PIT)
  95th percentile, 90th percentile, respectively. Talent has always been there and has always been an above average offensive player, despite the critics. Similar to Dozer in ownership.

Worriers

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU)
One of the most divisive players in the early rounds of drafts, Altuve has had a good fantasy season to date, in a way we didn’t expect. Altuve has been pitiful in hitting the ball hard, ranking just 215th in all of baseball in average exit velocity. However, Altuve has never been known as a Statcast darling, as his average exit velocity is actually over a mile per hour better than last year, and still better than when he hit 20+ homers in 2016 and 2017. Given that Altuve hits the ball at a great launch angle for home runs, his nine taters (and 80th percentile xSLG) on the year are not an outlier. Other things worry me about Altuve (just one stolen base, .263 expected batting average), but exit velocity is not one of them.

Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL)
Ranking in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and 42nd percentile in hard-hit rate, something is up with Blackmon. The good news is that his hard-hit rate is actually at a career high, and his expected slugging percentage is higher than last year when he hit 29 homers. The main issue is that Blackmon is having trouble turning around fastballs, as his xSLG is 100 points worse on fastballs than last year. Blackmon has a lengthy injury history, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if his slump was due to injury, I’m expecting Blackmon to turn this around and makes for an excellent buy low-ish.

Chris Taylor (SS/OF – LAD)
While Altuve isn’t one to worry about, Taylor certainly is. Taylor’s five mile per hour decrease in average exit velocity, all the way down to 83.8 MPH, ranks in the bottom seven percent of the league, and his expected slugging percentage ranks in the bottom zero percent of the league — 297th out of 300. There’s only one way to go, I suppose. Since he is not playing every day, he probably won’t have the opportunity to dig himself out of this hole. While Taylor has a limited history of injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out he is battling through something.

Other Worriers:

• Brian Dozier (2B – WAS)
  I’ve written about Dozier previously, and he hasn’t turned it around. Maybe Carter Kieboom slides to second base when Trea Turner returns?

Relieving Injury Concerns

Gary Sanchez (C – NYY)
Sanchez had a terrible 2018 but was nonetheless treated as a top two catcher during 2019 draft season. Owners who thought he would bounce back have been greatly rewarded, as his exit velocity has increased over five miles per hour, and his barrel percentage is a staggering 33 percent. Both of these statistics are in the top one percent of the league, along with his xwOBA and xSLG. While he has already been on the IL this year, his numbers seem to show that he is healthy. You aren’t selling high — just hope that he can stay relatively healthy the rest of the season, and chances are you’ll own the top catcher in fantasy.

Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET)
While he has only hit one homer so far, he is otherwise classic Miggy. He rates in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His expected slugging is lower than you would expect, which can be attributed to his launch angle not being maximized (currently at 11 degrees) and being one of the slowest players in the league. His 26% K rate is also hurting him across the board. My bet is that he brings his K rate down 5-10 percent with his hard hit metrics sticking around, making for a great buy low. The last time Miggy stayed healthy and displayed these elite metrics, he was an MVP candidate.

Matt Chapman (3B – OAK)
Chapman had two surgeries this offseason, and they definitely are not affecting him. Chapman’s exit velocity is actually down from last year by two miles per hour, but he still ranks in the 86th percentile this year. The main reason for his 140-point expected slugging increase is an increase in barrel percentage and above average sprint speed. Based on precedent, we know that swinging less, especially at balls, tends to make a slugging percentage rise. Chapman is swinging less and making contact more, resulting in these boons in his slash line (.300/.390/.600).

Positive Regression

Manny Machado (SS/3B – SD)
I have seen a lot of people concerned with Machado, mainly because his hitting metrics away from Camden Yards leave a lot to be desired. He hasn’t quieted those fears, hitting just .241 with two homers at home. While his hitting metrics won’t make you jump off your seat, placing in the 81st percentile and 76th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, respectively, is similar to last year. His issue this year is his launch angle, as it is five degrees lower than last year. Once he gets back to his historical 13-14 degree launch angle, we will see him hit towering homers. Buy low, and do it before he goes off.

Bryce Harper (OF – WAS)
The other half of this year’s free agent frenzy, Harper is off to a rough start at the dish, slashing .234/.380/.477. Both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are in the 76th percentile, similar to his free agent counterpart. His average velocity is steady at 90.6 MPH, similar to both 2018 and 2017 — his hard-hit rate looks the same. It seems that Harper is pressing a little bit, as evidenced by his six percent decrease in contact rate, despite his two percent increase in swing rate. I expect Harper to be a top-five outfielder by season’s end, and as with Machado, you should buy low.

Rafael Devers (3B – BOS)
Devers is a maddening case, bouncing all around different spots in the order. People have outright dropped Devers, as evidenced by his 77.5% ownership in ESPN leagues. All this, despite being in the 79th percentile in exit velocity and 80th in hard-hit rate. Between this and his 10 percent drop in strikeout rate, Devers should be owned in 12-team leagues and deeper. While he hasn’t barreled balls at a rate that helps fantasy owners (due to a 6.5-degree launch angle), I’m expecting that rate to normalize over time. Devers won’t be getting to that 30-homer milestone we thought he would reach this year, but I’m still expecting 20+ homers with a .275 average and double-digit stolen bases.

Other Positive Regressors:

• Franmil Reyes (OF – SD)
  Franmil’s eight homers are a result of his 96th percentile average exit velocity. Owned in just 15 percent of ESPN leagues, he should be owned in all 12-team leagues.
• Kendrys Morales (1B – OAK)
  Will lose playing time when Matt Olson returns, but his metrics are elite. Someone to keep an eye on in deeper leagues.

Negative Regression

Nolan Arenado (3B – COL)
Throughout the first couple weeks of the season, many were worried about Arenado and if his late-season injury had fully healed. Arenado tore it up this week, hitting three bombs, three doubles, and driving in seven. However, there are concerns that his average exit velocity (33rd percentile) and hard-hit rate (45th percentile) are below his career averages. I’m here to tell you those concerns are true — his exit velocity is down almost two miles per hour, and his hard hit rate is down about two percent. All of this results in a near 120-point difference between his expected slugging percentage and his actual slugging percentage. My bet is that Arenado posts similar numbers as last year, but doesn’t touch his peak 2015-2017 numbers.

Dan Vogelbach (1B – SEA)
Trending downward after a monster start to 2019. Has gone from leading the league in average exit velocity to the 80th percentile, and has a hard hit rate in the 56th percentile. Vogelbach has been around for what seems like years, even though he has just 250 plate appearances across four major league seasons. Vogelbach is pummeling fastballs (.655 xSLG) but is struggling on breaking and offspeed pitches. Unsurprisingly, he is seeing an increase in those types of pitches as the season wears on. Vogelbach should still be a useful fantasy asset in deep leagues, but now is a good time to sell high.

Victor Robles (OF – WAS)
Many pundits in this game have predicted that Robles will do well in runs and stolen bases and will grow into his power potential as he gets older. Someone forgot to tell Robles that, as he is on pace for 25+ homers. However, it looks like his current home run output is fluky, given his bottom one percentile in average exit velocity and bottom eight percentile in hard-hit rate. Like Arenado, he has a 120-point gap between his expected slugging and actual slugging percentages. The good news is that if that power dries up, Robles will still contribute in steals (on pace for 35) and should add a ton of value in runs if he continues to hit near the top of the order.

Other Negative Regressors:

• Jorge Polanco (SS – MIN)
  Ranking 219th in exit velocity, Polanco’s five homers and .591 SLG seem like a mirage.
• Kolten Wong (2B – STL)
  Four homers, despite ranking 268th in exit velocity. Can still get the counting stats in this lineup.
• Tommy La Stella (3B – LAA)
  Seven moonshots, 206th in exit velocity. What’s wrong with this picture?

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.