I originally planned to open this waiver wire column by closing the book on last week’s call-up bonanza and moving onto the ignored veterans and next batch of incoming prospects. However, upon closer inspection of the consensus ownership rates, many managers still have a chance to snag some of the latest arrivals.
Keston Hiura narrowly missed the mark by hitting the 35% cutoff point on Monday, and one would assume that rate will keep rising before Travis Shaw can retrieve his starting role. Austin Riley (55%) is even available for a handful of leagues, so stop reading and grab him now if possible.
These neophytes come with more risk — both performance and playing-time related — than their more established contemporaries, but hitting the jackpot on one can make a huge difference. Just ask everyone who claimed Juan Soto last year or drafted Chris Paddack or Pete Alonso despite an uncertain big league ETA.
This doesn’t mean managers should devote all of their energy to prospect hunting. Let’s sprinkle in a few less flashy selections and a couple of stashes.
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Priority Pickups – <35% Owned
Corbin Martin (SP – HOU): 30% Owned
All the hype harnessed from Martin’s nine-strikeout debut abruptly decayed when he failed to record a single punchout while walking four Red Sox batters. It’s an important reminder about tempering expectations and not overreacting to one strong performance.
Then again, one can apply that same logic to not panic about a rookie struggling on the road against the defending World Series champions. While it may now read as hindsight bias, nobody should have trusted the 23-year-old righty in that treacherous spot anyway. Martin, who tallied a 1.48 ERA and 29.8% K rate in four Triple-A starts, will have a chance to rebound Thursday against the White Sox. Look for the Houston novice to generate more whiffs against one of baseball’s most aggressive lineups.
Brendan Rodgers (SS – COL): 29% Owned
Rodgers’ main selling point may also be the biggest cause of skepticism: He plays for the Rockies. On one hand, just imagine the fun the premier prospect can have in Coors Field. The 22-year-old would be rostered in every single active league if gamers expected a full-time role all season.
He plays for the Rockies, who are notoriously stubborn when it comes to unleashing young talent, so nobody truly has a clue. It also doesn’t help that one of those players blocked for too long, Ryan McMahon, snapped out of a funk to mash two home runs on Sunday. The 24-year-old is suddenly hitting .260/.347/.442, so Rodgers has competition at second base.
Caveats aside, he’s still a top-shelf middle-infield prospect with savory five-category potential who could play half of his games at Coors Field. You may have to drop him if the Rockies demote him in two weeks, but there’s too much upside to resist a speculative investment.
Ryan Pressly (RP – HOU): 29% Owned
Hey there, just a friendly reminder that Pressly has yet to allow a walk or run this season. He’s ranked higher than Blake Treinen, Greg Holland, and Wade Davis on ESPN’s Player Rater. Take the elite ERA and WHIP with the occasional side order of a vulture win or save.
Hansel Robles (RP – LAA): 25% Owned
Ty Buttrey (RP- LAA): 17% Owned
Frankly, I’d still rather roster Buttrey than Robles unless pointing at pop-ups that are actually home runs is a category. While the latter is getting the majority of the Angels’ saves, his long-ball woes make him a ticking time bomb who’s one bad week away from getting expelled from high-leverage work. Buttrey, meanwhile, boasts a 1.50 ERA, 27.6 K-BB%, and 1.80 FIP. Yet saves are saves, and Robles has recorded three of them in his last five appearances.
Christian Vazquez (C – BOS): 23% Owned
Only seven catchers have a consensus ownership rate above 75%, and Wilson Ramos could soon slip below that benchmark if he doesn’t turn the corner. That suggests many managers in single-catcher leagues are burning and churning via the waiver wire.
Perhaps the wheel can stop at Vazquez, who sports a .316/.353/.535 slash line with six home runs for the Red Sox. The 28-year-old has swung at 8.2% fewer pitches off the plate and has staked four-seam fastballs to a .405 wOBA after mustering a minuscule .254 last season. Even regressing to Statcast’s .278 xBA and .447 xSLG could make him a top-12 catcher. At least ride the streak for now.
Willie Calhoun (OF – TEX): 22% Owned
How does Kole Calhoun still have a higher consensus ownership rate than Willie Calhoun? The 24-year-old commenced his return to Arlington with home runs in each of his first two games. He’s hitting 10-for-21 in five games with the Rangers after batting .304/.416/.557 in Triple-A.
One of baseball’s most feared hitting prospects heading into 2018, Calhoun struggled at both the major and minor league level last season. His fall from grace continued when he lost a roster spot to Hunter Pence in spring training. Once again, our short attention spans got the best of us. A year ago, he had flocks of supporters anticipating 25-30 home runs with a high batting average. While playing time remains uncertain due to his defensive inability and Texas’ crowded lineup, Calhoun remains an elite talent capable of out-performing this recent crop of first-look rookies in his latest go-around.
Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL): 18% Owned
Nelson is making major strides in his rehab assignments, successfully shaking off the cobwebs to amass eight strikeouts in 5.1 scoreless innings last Friday. The 29-year-old righty, who missed all of 2018 with a partially torn labrum and strained rotator cuff in his right shoulder, should be on the cusp of returning to the Brew Crew. For those who need a refresher, he registered a 3.49 ERA and 199 strikeouts during a breakout 2017. Add him before his activation prompts a mad dash to the waiver wire.
Nicky Lopez (2B/SS – KC): 11% Owned
Lopez doesn’t possess the prospect pedigree of the other arrivals, but he might have the smoothest path to plate appearances. Since last week’s promotion, the 24-year-old has started all six games in the No. 2 slot. Nobody will shed a tear over Chris Owings, Ryan O’Hearn, or even Billy Hamilton losing reps with the Royals, who optioned Kelvin Gutierrez to Triple-A following a decent two weeks.
Onlookers especially won’t care about those middling players if Lopez keeps performing. After batting .353/.457/.500 with a remarkable 20 walks and five strikeouts in 138 Triple-A appearances, he has gone 8-for-25 with three walks and strikeouts apiece in the bigs. Although yet to steal a bag, he joins MLB’s leader in stolen base attempts after swiping 69 in 352 career minor league contests. The upside isn’t through the roof, but Lopez should stick around all season and accrue double-digit steals with a solid average and a hearty dose of runs scored.
Tyler Mahle (SP – CIN): 11% Owned
Let’s do a blind taste test with two pitchers. Pretend you don’t already know one of the two stat lines belongs to Mahle.
Player A: 4.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 20.7 K-BB%, 3.55 FIP, .318 xwOBA
Player B: 3.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20.7 K-BB%, 3.47 FIP, .317 xwOBA
Mahle is Player B. Player A? Madison Bumgarner. This isn’t meant to disparage San Francisco’s ace, who has endured some poor fortune by way of a 64.1% strand rate. Yet the parallels show how well Cincinnati’s underlooked righty has looked through nine starts. There’s also some reason for healthy skepticism. His 9.3% swinging-strike rate doesn’t support the lofty strikeout uptick, and he has made seven starts away from Great American Ball Park with one of two home turns against the Marlins. In the other home outing on Friday, however, he worked six scoreless frames against the lefty-heavy Dodgers. The secret should officially be out if he flourishes at Wrigley Field this Saturday.
Deep League Targets – <10% Owned
Brandon Workman (RP – BOS): 9% Owned
On Sunday, after Matt Barnes faced Houston’s No. 4-6 hitters in the eighth, Workman protected a 4-3 lead to record his first save of 2019. The next day, he pitched the sixth inning with an 8-2 edge. Although the 30-year-old righty has relinquished 15 walks in 21.1 frames, Workman’s 2.11 ERA and 32 strikeouts could make him an intriguing option if he continues to see save chances instead of the struggling Ryan Brasier.
Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU): 8% Owned
All eyes are now on Yordan Alvarez as the next mega-prospect in line to join the majors, and it could happen as soon as this week if George Springer needs to miss time with a back injury. Just don’t forget about Tucker. Following a rough start to the season, MLB.com’s No. 13-ranked prospect is hitting .345 (20-for-58) with six homers and three steals in Triple-A this month. The 22-year-old is still a future five-category menace with a relatively high floor despite 2018’s lethargic introduction (.141/.236/.203) in just 72 plate appearances.
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA): 6% Owned
Ha, you thought one little 10-run shellacking was going to get me to abandon Lopez. He bounced back from the nightmarish start to allow one hit (on his first pitch) in seven shutout frames against the same Mets that destroyed him eight days earlier. It will take more than one gem to repair his 5.06 ERA, but a 3.53 FIP fueled by an 18.0 K-BB% and 53.0% ground-ball rate still point to a mixed-league starter if he can pitch with more consistency.
Joe Panik (2B – SF): 2% Owned
The entirely forgotten Panik is batting .309 in May with more walks (10) than strikeouts (eight). The light-hitting second baseman makes weak, but consistent contact atop San Francisco’s batting order, a desirable lineup spot even on a bad offense playing in a cavernous stadium. He’s worth adding for a steady average and some runs in deep leagues.
Pablo Sandoval (3B – SF): 2% Owned
Sandoval has a higher wOBA than Nolan Arenado. Baseball is weird sometimes. He has gone deep five times in May and homered twice in his only two appearances off the bench last weekend. The Giants — and deep-league fantasy managers — might as well ride this improbable wave to see if Sandoval is embarking on a Pence-style revival.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.