Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 10

As we bore full steam ahead into the middle third of the fantasy baseball season, I’m switching things up at the top of this week’s Closer Report. The top 10-12 closers have been remarkably steady over the season’s first two months, but some have simply been more dominant than others, especially when it comes to strikeouts. Kirby Yates and Josh Hader are two of the very best bat-missers in baseball, and they ascend to the pinnacle of this week’s rankings.

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Big Movers

Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers manager Craig Counsell suggested a couple of weeks ago that the team was on the verge of moving to a closer committee between Hader and Jeremy Jeffress. Since then, Hader has collected his 12th and 13th saves of the year while Jeffress has been deployed in the fifth and sixth inning. I was recently asked on Twitter when I planned to move Hader up in the rankings, and given how Counsell has used Jeffress, I’m going to go ahead and do it this week. It’s still possible Jeffress works his way into some save chances at some point, but until we see it, we need to give Hader his due. He has a 2.30 ERA and 0.70 WHIP to go along with the best strikeout rate in the game, and there’s little doubt that he’s the best closer in baseball from a pure talent standpoint.

New York Mets
A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that Edwin Diaz’s numbers looked great but his velocity was down. Well, now his velocity is back where it needs to be, but it’s his results that are suffering. Really, we’re just talking about one completely nightmarish outing in which Diaz surrendered four runs on five hits and a walk in one-third of an inning against the Dodgers, who happen to be the best offense in the National League. Diaz called it “easily the worst day of my career,” and that sounds about right. I don’t think there’s much reason to be concerned unless his struggles persist, but the top-five spots in the closer rankings are very competitive. With a 3.22 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, Diaz simply doesn’t belong there right now.

Philadelphia Phillies
It was only two weeks ago that I said Hector Neris may need to get 10 saves in a row before I’d be willing to again declare him the Phillies’ closer. It turns out something even more compelling than that happened: Neris’ main competition for saves, Pat Neshek, hit the injured list with rotator cuff inflammation that could keep him on the shelf for quite a while. No one in the Philly bullpen besides Neris and Neshek has more than a single save this year, so there’s really no choice but to once again call Neris the closer. I’m sure Gabe Kapler will turn to Juan Nicasio for the next save opportunity, just to spite me.

Washington Nationals
While Sean Doolittle is one of my absolute favorite baseball players (if you want to know why, check out his Twitter feed), his performance on the field hasn’t been so great this season. Part of that is due to some poor luck on batted balls — his .349 BABIP allowed is 82 points north of his .267 career mark — but he’s also made trouble for himself by issuing more free passes. Typically one of the most consistent strike-throwers among all relievers, Doolittle currently has a 2.74 BB/9 that is more than double last season’s rate. He hasn’t been awful, and he should be better going forward, but at this point a drop down the rankings was probably overdue.

St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Hicks has run into some trouble recently, giving up five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings over his last four appearances. He has been pretty good this season for the most part, but his 4.00 BB/9 rate is higher than you’d like to see for a closer, and his level of job security is still a bit of a question mark on a team with plenty of late-inning options. Although Hicks will probably be fine, Andrew Miller has really rediscovered his form in May and is the most likely guy to step into the closer role if Hicks’ struggles continue.

Chicago Cubs
Steve Cishek has picked up four saves since Pedro Strop landed on the injured list, but Strop is expected back this weekend. Although it’s pretty much impossible to predict how Joe Maddon will handle this situation, Cishek has handled himself reasonably well in the role. I’ll continue to call him the closer until we see Strop steal a save chance from him. The loss of job security, however, necessitates a drop in the rankings.

Baltimore Orioles
Mychal Givens was always a fairly shaky bet to hold onto the closer gig in Baltimore, and his 10-day stretch from hell (9 ERs in 4 IP) logically ended with a demotion from ninth-inning duties. The new Orioles closer is “whoever,” according to manager Brandon Hyde. Shawn Armstrong, Paul Fry, Josh Lucas, and Branden Kline are all candidates to see save chances, but I wouldn’t touch this situation with a 10-foot pole unless you are really, really desperate for saves. While Givens may eventually get another chance, he’s obviously not worth holding onto in fantasy leagues. Meanwhile, the Royals can rejoice, as they are no longer the bottom feeder of the closer rankings!

Random Musings

Oakland A’s
Blake Treinen has hit another rough patch (4 ERs over his last 3 IP), and he simply hasn’t shown anything close to the level of dominance he displayed last year. Given the significantly worse strikeout and walk rates he’s posting this season, he’s as likely to continue falling down the rankings as he is to rise back up them.

Chicago White Sox
Alex Colome has quietly collected 11 saves with a minuscule 1.59 ERA and 0.57 WHIP. Those ratios are due for some significant regression thanks to a highly-unsustainable .118 BABIP allowed and 88.2 percent strand rate, but he’s built up considerable job security for however long he’s in Chicago.

That brings us to the bigger issue with Colome, which is that he could be traded into a setup role on a contender. However, several of the teams rumored to be looking into acquiring him — including the Cubs, Phillies, Nationals, and Diamondbacks — could at least consider slotting him directly into the ninth inning, especially if he keeps up the stellar results a while longer.

Texas Rangers
Shawn Kelley has each of the Rangers’ last four saves and six of their last seven, so I am going to go ahead and anoint him the team’s closer for this week. Just know that Kelley’s hold on the job is very tenuous. He isn’t all that great a pitcher at this stage in his career — his 2.41 ERA is due for some regression — and Texas still has every incentive to eventually hand the job back to Jose Leclerc, whom they probably still envision as the long-term answer in the ninth inning. Leclerc was used as an opener on Wednesday, but he pitched a scoreless ninth inning in a game the Rangers trailed by two on Thursday, so perhaps a save opportunity could be coming his way in short order.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.