Tonight’s huge slate features all 30 MLB teams but we may have some weather issues in Boston so be careful about using the Sox or Indians in your lineup depending on the weather. We don’t have much in the way of aces and there are a ton of expensive hitters worth spending up for so the slate matches up nicely. Be sure to get your entries in before 6:35 ET, as the slate closes earlier than usual to accommodate early starts in New York and Cincy.
The primary focus of my Tuesday and Wednesday articles will be focused on winning double-ups and 50/50s. At the end of the article, I’ll list my favorite stacks and starting pitchers, as always, for those of you hoping to take down the big GPP prize.
I tell myself the same thing every day when I build a lineup. This is your weekly reminder as well: “Don’t be an idiot”
It is simple, but entirely necessary. This is your hard earned cash, and you don’t have to throw it away. Think out your player selection and make the single smartest lineup you can put together. That includes watching as starting lineups roll in before lock. If a player you loved is batting 7th instead of 2nd like you were anticipating, maybe rethink things. If the opposite is true and there is a player you expected to bat near the end of the order but turns up in the heart of the order, then don’t hesitate to get him plugged in if you are fond of his matchup. Most importantly, don’t get cute. Just play to win, period.
As always, be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Tonight’s huge slate features all 30 MLB teams but we may have some weather issues in Boston so be careful about using the Sox or Indians in your lineup depending on the weather. We don’t have much in the way of aces and there are a ton of expensive hitters worth spending up for so the slate matches up nicely. Be sure to get your entries in before 6:35 ET, as the slate closes earlier than usual to accommodate early starts in New York and Cincy.
The primary focus of my Tuesday and Wednesday articles will be focused on winning double-ups and 50/50s. At the end of the article, I’ll list my favorite stacks and starting pitchers, as always, for those of you hoping to take down the big GPP prize.
I tell myself the same thing every day when I build a lineup. This is your weekly reminder as well: “Don’t be an idiot”
It is simple, but entirely necessary. This is your hard earned cash, and you don’t have to throw it away. Think out your player selection and make the single smartest lineup you can put together. That includes watching as starting lineups roll in before lock. If a player you loved is batting 7th instead of 2nd like you were anticipating, maybe rethink things. If the opposite is true and there is a player you expected to bat near the end of the order but turns up in the heart of the order, then don’t hesitate to get him plugged in if you are fond of his matchup. Most importantly, don’t get cute. Just play to win, period.
As always, be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
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Pitcher Analysis
Most nights in cash games, one or two pitchers hog the majority of ownership but with no heavy favorite, that seems unlikely to be the case this time around. Masahiro Tanaka, Frankie Montas and Stephen Strasburg will all be popular plays, but I imagine the most common choice will be who I am on thanks to an incredible price.
Nick Pivetta (PHI): $6,500 vs STL
- Needs just 26 FD points to hit value (6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks, 1 QS)
- Much better at home historically
- Huge K-upside and floor
- Has been dominating in Triple-A since being demoted
- Also pitching deep into games
- Slight favorite despite low price tag
My Cash Player Pool
Every article, I’ll give you the list of players I’m considering playing. If they aren’t on this list, I consider the player a subpar play based on his price. Granted, any player could go off and is thus a decent GPP play depending on how many lineups you are using, but these are the best investments listed in order.
Expensive Plays ($3,600+)
- Carlos Correa (SS – HOU): $3,900 (J Lester)
- Bryce Harper (OF – PHI): $4,200 (A Wainwright)
- Rafael Devers (3B – BOS): $4,000 (Z Plesac) *weather*
- Alex Bregman (3B – HOU): $4,100 (J Lester)
- Paul DeJong (SS – STL): $3,600 (N Pivetta)
- Daniel Murphy (C/1B – COL): $3,600 (M Kelly)
- Eduardo Escobar (3B – ARI): $4,600 (A Senzatela)
- Gleyber Torres (SS – NYY): $3,700 (E Lauer)
- J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS): $4,200 (Z Plesac) *weather*
- Matt Chapman (3B – OAK): $4,000 (N Tropeano)
- Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA): $3,900 (A Sampson)
- Aaron Hicks (OF – NYY): $3,600 (E Lauer)
- Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT): $3,600 (L Sims)
- Tommy Pham (OF – TBR): $3,800 (C Richard)
- Adam Jones (OF – ARI): $3,900 (A Senzatela)
- Anthony Rendon (3B – WAS): $4,300 (M Fried)
- Trevor Story (SS – COL): $4,600 (M Kelly)
- Eddie Rosario (OF – MIN): $4,500 (Z Davies)
- Jose Abreu (C/1B – CWS): $3,800 (B Keller)
Mid-Range Plays ($2,800-$3,500)
- Ryan McMahon (2B – COL): $3,200 (M Kelly)
- Daniel Vogelbach (C/1B – SEA): $3,500 (A Sampson)
- Joey Votto (C/1B – CIN): $2,900 (J Lyles)
- Kevin Cron (C/1B – ARI): $2,800 (A Senzatela)
- Raimel Tapia (OF – COL): $3,000 (M Kelly)
- Jarrod Dyson (OF – ARI): $3,300 (A Senzatela)
- Matt Olson (C/1B – OAK): $3,100 (N Tropeano)
- Ian Desmond (OF – COL): $3,400 (M Kelly)
- Nick Ahmed (SS – ARI): $3,200 (A Senzatela)
- Clint Frazier (OF – NYY): $3,500 (E Lauer)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B – TOR): $2,800 (R Yarbrough)
- Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE): $3,400 (D Price) *weather
- Jonathan Villar (SS – BAL): $3,200 (M Boyd)
- Starling Marte (OF – PIT): $3,500 (L Sims)
- Edwin Encarnacion (C/1B – SEA): $3,400 (A Sampson)
- J.T. Realmuto (C/1B – PHI): $3,300 (A Wainwright)
- Carlos Santana (C/1B – CLE): $3,500 (D Price) *Weather*
- Ryan Braun (OF – MIL): $3,000 (M Perez)
- Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC): $3,100 (C Martin)
- Franmil Reyes (OF – SDP): $3,300 (M Tanaka)
- Niko Goodrum (OF – DET): $3,100 (D Bundy)
- Eloy Jimenez (OF – CHW): $3,000 (B Keller)
- Manny Machado (3B – SDP): $3,500 (M Tanaka)
- Christin Stewart (OF – DET): $2,800 (D Bundy)
Value Plays ($2,700 or less)
- Adam Frazier (2B – PIT): $2,700 (L Sims)
- Willy Adames (SS – TBR): $2,600 (C Richard)
- Derek Dietrich (2B – CIN): $2,700 (J Lyles)
- Enrique Hernandez (2B – LAD): $2,700 (S Matz)
- Tyler White (C/1B – HOU): $2,400 (J Lester)
- Jesse Winker (OF – CIN): $2,600 (J Lyles)
- Jesus Aguilar (C/1B – MIL): $2,400 (M Perez)
- David Freese (3B – LAD): $2,600 (S Matz)
- Chris Taylor (OF – LAD): $2,300 (S Matz)
- Yonder Alonso (C/1B – CWS): $2,600 (B Keller)
- Scott Kingery (SS – PHI): $2,700 (A Wainwright)
- Shed Long (2B – SEA): $2,200 (A Sampson)
- J.D. Davis (OF – NYM): $2,500 (R Hill)
- Jake Marisnick (OF – HOU): $2,400 (J Lester)
- Robbie Grossman (OF – OAK): $2,400 (N Tropeano)
Four Cornerstones
Ryan McMahon/David Dahl (3B/OF – COL): $3,200 & $3,700 vs ARI
I’ve been fading the Rockies for the most part this season but their bats have finally started to heat up and Vegas has taken note. They are implied for a whopping 6.41 runs this evening which is a rare number to see. You can frankly use any of their 8 hitters, but two stand out above the rest. Both Dahl and McMahon are lefties taking on the righty, and more importantly, their prices are much mower than many others for Colorado. They should be batting 3rd and 6th this evening, but be sure to check the official lineup to be sure.
Daniel Vogelbach (1B – SEA): $3,500 vs TEX
Vogelbach has a .418 wOBA this year which is #good. If that were all, I’d say lock him in at home against Adrian Sampson, who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. It gets much better, however. Vogelbach is substantially more dominant versus righties and while there are several dynamite options at C/1B tonight, you’ll have a difficult time beating this price point for a hitter anywhere close to as good in similar splits.
Carlos Correa (SS – HOU): $3,900 vs CHC
While I’d love to put Rafael Devers in this fourth spot, it seems probable that the game in Boston will be postponed before the slate locks. So here we are back with Correa for the third time in four weeks. It isn’t so much that I love the matchup, as Jon Lester is formidable, but the shortstop landscape tonight is awful, plus Lester’s on paper stats are vastly overrated compared to his underlying numbers. What’s more, is that Lester struggles against righties and Correa eats lefties alive.
Current Cash Game Lineup
*subject to change based on final starting lineups
GPP Pitching Options
No cheap ones tonight, unfortunately. We’ve got to spend up.
My Favorite GPP Stacks
When I play GPP, you’ll never find me doing anything besides double stacking. I don’t always use four players from two teams, but always at least three from two teams. Here are my favorite stacks tonight in order:
- Rockies (Story, Dahl, Murphy, McMahon)
- D-Backs (Dyson, Escobar, Jones, Cron)
- Yankees (Hicks, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier)
- Phillies (Segura, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto)
- Astros (Bregman, Correa, White, Marisnick)
- Reds (Senzel, Votto, Dietrich, Puig)
- Twins (Kepler, Polanco, Cron, Rosario)
- Mariners (Haniger, Encarnacion, Vogelbach, Long)
Under-Owned Double-Dong Threats
Sneaking one or two of these guys in with double stacks can be the difference between a nice $500 payday and a $50,000 life-changing win. Every night, there is some slugger who goes 2% owned with 2 or even 3 homers. Here are the guys I have targeted who could do it tonight. They are listed in order:
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