DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (5/31)

There’s a game at Coors Field tonight, and one of the teams there has a team over/under total of 6.5 runs, per Pinnacle. There’s a game at the second most hitter-friendly park in MLB (Globe Life Park in Arlington), and both teams playing there have a team over/under total of 5.5 runs. Add in another team with a team over/under total of 5.5 runs, and there’s a lot of projected run scoring on tonight’s slate. You’ll want significant salary available for hitters, and my pitching selections for tonight’s slate keep that in mind with all three hurlers checking in at under $9,000 each. In fact, if you pair my two priciest suggestions, you’re still left with an average salary north of $4,000 for hitters. The hitter selections below are highlighted by a pair of teammates playing in Colorado tonight. They’re joined by some affordable thump, with none of the other three hitters featured carrying a salary higher than $4,300.

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Pitchers

Joey Lucchesi (ARI): $8,800 vs. Marlins
Here’s your likely chalk pitcher on the slate, and I think he’ll easily be the highest owned pitcher. Of course, that’s for good reason. First, he’s affordable. Second, he’s facing the Marlins. Third, he’s outstanding at home. The affordable part speaks for itself, as he’s priced under $9,000. The Marlins rank dead last in wRC+ (63) against southpaws this year, per FanGraphs. Their team over/under total tonight is 2.5 runs, lowest on the slate. As for Lucchesi at home, he loves home cooking. In 114.0 innings pitched at home in his young career, he has a 3.63 ERA (3.37 xFIP), 1.27 WHIP, and 25.5% K%. Run support could be tough to come by opposing Caleb Smith (San Diego’s team over/under total tonight is only 3.5 runs), but 20-plus points isn’t out of the question even without a win.

Zack Wheeler (NYM): $8,700 at Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks return home after getting swept in a four-game series in Colorado. Now, their hitters will be tasked with adjusting to the non-Coors Field break and movement of pitches. That’ll be a tall order against Wheeler. The righty’s arsenal includes both a slider and a curve in addition to a blazing heater, change, and splitter. The Diamondbacks rank just 19th in wRC+ (91) against right-handed pitchers this year, and they’re without one of their best hitters, David Peralta. Wheeler’s 4.63 ERA through 11 starts spanning 70.0 innings is nothing to write home about, but it’s significantly higher than his 3.91 SIERA. With a 26.2% K% this year, he boasts the type of strikeout upside gamers should be seeking in GPPs, too. Priced at $100 cheaper than Lucchesi, he’s a great pivot. Although, the two can be paired together while leaving enough salary flexibility to roster the touted hitters below as well.

Yu Darvish (CHC): $7,000 at Cardinals
Through 11 starts totaling 55.0 innings, Darvish has an unsightly 5.40 ERA (4.82 SIERA) and ghastly 15.1% BB%. Rostering him isn’t for the faint of heart, In fact, it’s debatable if rostering him is a smart move for someone with a working brain. Having said that, he appears to be turning a corner (even if coughing up a half-dozen runs in his last start runs contrary to that line of thinking). Darvish has totaled 18.1 innings in his last three starts combined, and he’s walked only five hitters (6.3% BB%). In that same three-start stretch, he’s struck out 28.8% of the batters he’s faced. He’s rattled off an eye-catching 13.1% SwStr% in his last three starts, and one striking change to his plate discipline profile is his insistence on getting ahead in the count. He has a 71.3% F-Strike% in his last three starts, a far cry from his 52.6% F-Strike% in his first eight starts. Darvish has yielded a .333 wOBA to right-handed batters this year, but he’s held them to a .276 wOBA for his career, and last year’s .307 wOBA ceded to the mere 92 of them he faced was his previous season-high mark. Darvish’s exploits against right-handed batters is noteworthy due to the overwhelmingly right-handed nature of the Red Birds’ lineup. If Yadier Molina returns to the squat tonight, the Cardinals will likely have just three batters hitting left-handed (Dexter Fowler is a switch-hitter) against Darvish. The veteran righty could implode and turn in a negative fantasy scoring output, but he has massive upside that belies his bargain salary. Roll the dice on his upside tonight.

Hitters

Matt Olson (1B – OAK): $3,900 vs. Astros
Surgery to remove the hamate bone typically saps power initially for players, but Olson didn’t get the memo. He’s crushed seven homers with a .286 ISO in 96 plate appearances this season. According to the statcast data at Baseball Savant, his .362 wOBA is 28 points lower than his expected wOBA of .390. The left-handed slugger has been a handful for right-handed pitchers in his career, and he has a .344 OBP, .286 ISO, and 136 wRC+ in 703 plate appearances against them since debuting in 2016.

Brandon Belt (1B/OF – SF): $4,100 at Orioles
Is Belt playing on the road tonight? Yes. Is he facing a right-handed pitcher? Yes. Is he grossly underpriced relative to his hitting exploits against righties on the road? Damn right he is. In 608 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers on the road since 2016, Belt owns a .375 OBP, .221 ISO, and 128 wRC+. But wait, there’s more! Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the seventh highest park factor for homers for left-handed batters (1.119). Opposing starter Andrew Cashner shouldn’t dissuade gamers from popping Belt into their lineups, either. Cashner’s yielded a .328 wOBA to 456 lefties faced since 2018.

Yoan Moncada (3B – CHW): $4,300 vs. Indians
The White Sox face Trevor Bauer tonight, and, normally, I wouldn’t suggest using most hitters against the talented righty. However, Moncada’s no slouch in his own right, and I suspect he’ll be low owned based on the tough matchup and a salary that’s not depressed too low despite the tough matchup. In 829 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in his career, the switch-hitting Moncada has a .334 OBP, .206 ISO, and 114 wRC+.

David Dahl (OF – COL): $4,700 vs. Blue Jays
Trevor Story (SS – COL): $5,800 vs. Blue Jays
Colorado’s team over/under total tonight is a slate-high 6.5 runs. Yes, all of their hitters have Coors-inflated salaries, but gamers will find a way stack them as well as use key pieces as one-off options. You’re not going to get a low ownership rate on the top offensive options, but I’m content eating the chalk and taking a couple of stabs at their bloated over instead of paying for the full-blown stack. Dahl and Story are my favorite options from the offense. In 274 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, Dahl’s feasted with a .377 OBP, .272 ISO, and 129 wRC+. Story’s career numbers against righties at home are dragged down (yet still awesome) by a forgettable 2017 campaign, but check out the table below of his noteworthy numbers at home against righties by year (excluding 2017), according to FanGraphs.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.