It’s hitter week here at Buy/Sell, and in honor of Memorial Day barbeques everywhere, let’s go with a little grilling analogy. This week’s shopping list includes one player you could call Kobe beef and two others who are more like cheap-but-delicious hanger steaks. Meanwhile, think of names on the “sell” list as ground chuck — it’s plenty tasty and there’s no shame in throwing it on the grill, but you’d be silly not to upgrade to a New York strip if you had the chance.

Alright, let’s get out that grocery list:

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Players to Buy

Alex Bregman (3B/SS – HOU) 
While I’m not sure if this one qualifies as a buy-low or a buy-high, the important word is “buy.” Bregman already has 15 home runs, so he’s obviously been no schlub for fantasy purposes. But it turns out he’s also been quite unfortunate on his batted balls that didn’t leave the yard — his .245 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is among the bottom 20 in baseball and 50 points lower than his career average. In other words, his batting average is due for 15-20 points of positive regression.

And while Bregman probably won’t quite keep up his current 45-HR pace, it may not drop off as much as you might think. He’s currently posting career-bests in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast, and perhaps most importantly, he has significantly increased his launch angle. Bregman’s home run output jumped from 19 in 2017 to 31 last year, and it certainly looks like we’ll see another sizable jump in his age-25 season. He could easily be a top-10 hitter over the rest of the season.

Players to Offer for Bregman: Josh Bell, Joey Gallo, Zack Greinke, Chris Paddack

Justin Smoak (1B – TOR) 
If you’re looking for a potentially high-end bat you can acquire cheaply, consider Smoak. At first glance, his .224 batting average isn’t surprising considering he is a .233 lifetime hitter, but a closer look reveals that he’s trimmed his strikeout rate all the way down to 18.9 percent — the only other one of his five years in Toronto that he struck out less than 26 percent of the time (2017), he hit .270. At the same time, Smoak’s Statcast numbers — including barrel percentage, exit velocity, hard contact rate, and launch angle — are all even better than they were in 2017, when he smashed 38 home runs, so the fact he’s again on pace for 30+ HRs is no fluke.

The Blue Jays are not a great lineup top-to-bottom, but hitting third — right behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — should still result in plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Smoak also possesses the fourth-highest walk rate in baseball, making him an even more attractive buy in OBP leagues. Smoak is unowned in more than half of all fantasy leagues, and shouldn’t cost much to acquire in those where he isn’t.

Players to Offer for Smoak: Carlos Santana, Dwight Smith Jr., Jeff Samardzija, Julio Teheran

Jurickson Profar (1B/2B/SS/3B – OAK) 
As we fast approach June 1, Profar is still hitting below the Mendoza line (.194), but that is due in large part to a woeful .187 BABIP that is the single-lowest in baseball. Profar has never been a high-BABIP guy, but that is just plain unlucky no matter how you slice it. Meanwhile, Profar has maintained a well-above-average strikeout rate of only 14.2 percent, and is on pace to match or exceed the 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases he put up in 2018.

Matching last year’s .254/82/20/77/10 line may not sound like much, but it was good enough to make Profar a top-five fantasy second baseman in standard 5×5 leagues, according to Baseball Monster. The fact he’s eligible at four different positions doesn’t hurt either, especially in leagues with daily lineups. Profar is free to add in almost half of all fantasy leagues, but if he’s owned in yours, you can probably acquire him for a song.

Players to Offer for Profar: Derek Dietrich, Alex Gordon, Zach Eflin, Zach Davies

Players to Sell

Michael Brantley (OF – HOU) 
Brantley’s place on this list should not be viewed as a major knock on him. He is one of the best pure hitters in the game, and a perennial threat to hit .300 with solid across-the-board fantasy production. But there are two main reasons I view him as a sell-high candidate.

First, with 10 home runs already, his current home run output looks unsustainable. Brantley has never topped 20 HRs in any season, and many of his key Statcast metrics — including hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and launch angle — are all in the same range as his career averages, so it’s tough to argue he is a radically different hitter than he’s been in the past. A drop in home runs would also adversely affect his .320 batting average, although he should remain a strong asset there.

The other big concern is Brantley’s injury history. His 2016 and 2017 seasons were derailed by injury, and he hasn’t managed to play more than 143 games in a season since way back in 2014. Now 32 years old, I wouldn’t want to bet on him staying healthy all year.

Players to Target for Brantley: J.D. Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, Chris Sale, Walker Buehler

Eduardo Escobar (3B/SS – ARI) 
Escobar is a solid player, but as the 22nd-most valuable hitter in standard 5×5 leagues right now, he has the statistics of a great one. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and even BABIP are nearly identical to last season, but his fantasy value has spiked because he’s currently on pace to deliver 35+ home runs. But is he really that kind of power hitter? His hard-hit rate and exit velocity aren’t meaningfully higher than they’ve been the last two years, and his launch angle is actually a little lower, according to Statcast.

As his home run pace likely tails off into the 20-25 range, his batting average and RBI production will drop off accordingly. Last year, Escobar hit .272 with 23 home runs and 84 RBIs, and that is the kind of solid-but-unspectacular pace we should expect from him going forward.

Players to Target for Escobar: Jonathan Villar, Jean Segura, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner

Ketel Marte (2B/SS/OF – ARI) 
When I had the privilege of appearing on the Opening Week FantasyPros Baseball Podcast episode with Bobby Sylvester, I recommended Marte as a waiver wire addition. While I undoubtedly got some things wrong back then (we won’t talk about those!), that particular call has certainly worked out well so far, as Marte has returned top-35 overall fantasy value in standard 5×5 leagues, according to Baseball Monster. In fact, things have gone so well for Marte that he could now be a legitimate sell-high candidate.

Like his teammate Eduardo Escobar, the key to Marte’s rising fantasy value has been a spike in his home run output: he’s knocked 12 balls over the fence in 53 games this season after hitting just 14 home runs in 153 games last year. Some of that power growth is probably for real — his launch angle and hard-hit rate are both up significantly, and it’s hardly unheard of to have a power breakthrough in your age-25 season. But Marte is still probably more of a 25-HR guy than 35-HR guy, and the increased power has come with a strikeout rate that has risen from 13.6 percent last year to 18.0 percent this year, which means he could be hard-pressed to match last season’s .260 batting average once his HR pace slows a bit. Marte could take a big step forward this year and still struggle to return top-100 fantasy value, let alone top-35.

Players To Target For Marte: Lorenzo Cain, Daniel Murphy, Mike Clevinger, Kyle Hendricks

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.