In fantasy baseball, we all eventually experience the deflating feeling of drafting a pitching bust. Usually, it’s a player selected in the early rounds who fails to deliver on lofty expectations. Sometimes, it’s a buzzworthy player whose ADP shoots through the roof leading up to the draft, only to dash your hopes with each poor start.
More often than not, we hold onto these players longer than our better judgment tells us we should. We do this because we want to believe in the same hype that led us to draft him in the first place. We want to justify our choices, no matter how misguided they become with each passing start.
In most cases, there were signs long before draft day that the pitcher was unlikely to meet our inflated expectations. The purpose of this exercise is to identify a handful of pitchers who may implode beneath the deck of your fantasy armada and sink more ships than they’re worth. We can usually spot these unreliable but alluring assets by examining the underlying metrics.
To be clear, none of the following pitchers are guaranteed to bust. All of them could have stellar campaigns. My goal is simply to highlight a few pitchers who present a sobering enough picture to at least proceed with caution before spending an early-round pick. If you decide to draft any of these arms and they pan out, good for you. I’d rather be wrong and see a player succeed than root for one to fail. However, if these pitchers struggle to meet expectations, at least you can circle back here and find some solace in possible answers as to why they have failed.
Let’s look at some potential pitchers, two household names and two up-and-comers, who may be poised to break your heart. We’ll go from top to bottom based on the current FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).
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James Paxton (NYY): ECR 55, SP14
James Paxton has elite stuff highlighted by tantalizing velocity. He managed to strike out 208 batters in a mere 160 innings last season. However, he no longer calls his home Safeco Field, a place that ranked as one of baseball’s top-three most pitcher-friendly ballparks. Thanks to its marine layer and spacious confines, Safeco consistently yields a top-10 strikeout percentage and among the fewest extra-base hits.
Paxton will instead pitch his home games at Yankee Stadium, which ranked the 10th-worst venue for pitchers. It’s particularly tough on lefties, who enjoyed the second-highest park factor thanks to the short porch in right field. Yankee Stadium is also among the league’s highest in terms of yielding extra-base hits. Did I mention that Paxton is left-handed?
I should also point out that a change in venue is not Paxton’s only red flag. He has never topped 160 innings in a single season, so the 160 he threw last year at age 29 represented a career high for the oft-injured hurler. Last year’s 3.76 ERA figures to rise in New York, and he’s far from a sure bet to clear 200 strikeouts or 160 innings on a team that has no reason to let him struggle late when they can instead hand the ball over to a juggernaut bullpen.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD): ECR 70, SP18
Believers will see how some drafters are fading Clayton Kershaw and think they’ve got a steal on their hands. To be clear, Kershaw is a Hall of Fame talent. He’s borderline unhittable when locked in, but it’s fair to wonder if we’ll ever see that Kershaw again.
Kershaw hasn’t cleared 180 innings since 2015. His strikeout rate, once a sterling 10.4 per nine innings, dropped to 8.6 last season. His fastball has seen a drop in velocity. The pitch, which averaged 95 mph in his prime, is more of low-90s offering now, and that may not make him quite the elite starter he has been for nearly a decade.
We haven’t even addressed the injuries yet. Kershaw has battled a recurring lumbar disc issue in his back, tendinitis to his left biceps, and now inflammation in his throwing shoulder that has already put his streak of eight straight Opening Day starts in jeopardy. Although only 30 years old, he already has over 2,000 innings on his arm. It’s entirely possible that Kershaw will regain some velocity or make himself more effective with different pitch sequencing, but you’re now banking on a pitcher either reinventing himself or discovering an extra gear out of a body that can’t seem to stay healthy. Neither seems highly likely.
Jack Flaherty (STL): ECR 71, SP19
Could Jack Flaherty be this year’s Luis Castillo? Last season, fueled by high velocity and an elite K/9, overzealous drafters went all-in on Castillo as a top-20 starter, only to watch the mercurial Reds youngster struggle to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Many will say 2019 represents a unique buying opportunity for Castillo as a post-hype sleeper, but Flaherty takes his place under the hype glare.
Featuring a 10.8 K/9 with 182 strikeouts in 151 innings pitched, Flaherty certainly fits the bill as the next hard-throwing hurler to take the league by storm. He has five potential offerings with a four-seamer, slider, changeup, sinker, and curveball, though he primarily relies on the four-seam fastball and slider. Unlike Castillo, Flaherty doesn’t possess elite velocity — his fastball averaged under 94 mph in 2018 — so late drafters will want to keep an eye on his velocity to see if he makes any gains in spring training. The slider is the put-away pitch, and Flaherty does have top-10 upside with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate and high chase rate.
The reason for hesitation is the walk rate. Flaherty posted a concerning 3.5 BB/9 (9.6%) last year. Regardless of how good his stuff is, he won’t log innings if he can’t keep runners off base. The frames he does work will likely see a substantial rise in ERA. Many will point to increased innings possibly fatiguing him and that negatively impacting his control late in 2018. Whatever the reason, there remains a risk in drafting Flaherty early until he demonstrates the ability to limit free passes. Like with his velocity, it’s worth monitoring his walk percentage during the exhibition season to see if he makes any improvements.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): ECR 123, SP32
Mike Foltynewicz had a breakout of sorts in his 2018 All-Star campaign with 202 strikeouts and a 2.85 ERA. With a talented young Braves team poised to take off, it’s not surprising to see Folty ranked inside many top-30 starting pitching lists. This may be fool’s gold once you take a deeper look under the hood.
First, he had a FIP of 3.37, lower than his career norms, but still noticeably higher than the career-low ERA he posted last season. Additionally, his BB/9 sat at 3.3, barely better than the 3.4 BB/9 he posted in 2017 when he finished with an ERA of 4.79. His swinging-strike rate only went up by 1.3 percent, so there is not much to support a 6.5-percent jump in strikeout rate.
In addition to these performance concerns, the Braves have officially ruled out Foltynewicz for Opening Day due to elbow soreness.
Other notable arms to consider as potential busts include Carlos Martinez and Stephen Strasburg (both for health risks), Zack Greinke (rising FIP and hard-hit rate suggest diminishing stuff), and Madison Bumgarner (declining velocity and K/9).
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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.