This is an unusual week since there are good DFS contests on DraftKings for two different golf tournaments. The top 64 players in the world are competing in the WGC-Dell Match Play tournament and the regular PGA Tour heads to the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. The format for this article will be slightly different than previous weeks, but we’ll try to give you valuable information so that you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Remember, that golf is probably the most challenging of the DFS contests since it has so much variance. As an example, Paul Casey just won after missing the cut the previous week. Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut in two of his previous four PGA events but finished runner-up this past weekend. Gary Woodland and Keegan Bradley had the PGA’s longest streaks for consecutive cuts made (22 and 19, respectively) and they both missed the cut. Other notables that missed the cut after coming into the tournament with sizable cut streaks included Webb Simpson (16), Patrick Reed (12), and J.T. Poston (8). Jason Day, who has four top-10 finishes on the year, also missed the cut. All of that to say, golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind.
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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WGC-DELL MATCH PLAY NOTES
Lineup lock is Wednesday morning at 6:00 AM eastern time NOT Thursday like most events (including this week’s Corales Puntacana PGA Tour stop).
The Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas started hosted WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event in 2016. Six different courses have been the host to this event. Austin C.C. is a Par 71 measuring 7,109 yards.
The top 64 players in the world (minus Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler) are playing this weekend in the WGC-Match Play event. Your lineups should look good because you won’t have any bad players.
The golfers with five-figure price tags this week on DraftKings are Rory McIlory ($11,700), Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Justin Thomas ($11,000), Jon Rahm ($10,600), Brooks Koepka ($10,300), and Justin Rose ($10,000).
Welcome to March Madness! Think of this event like the NCAA tournament bracket. There are 16 pods or groups, headlined by one of the top 16 golfers in the world. Each group will consist of four golfers. With the exception of the 16 top golfers in the OWGR (that headline each group), the golfers will be selected by a random drawing. These four golfers will then play a round-robin match play format on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The winner of the group will advance to the Round of 16 while the other three players will go home.
It is important to have golfers that advance to the weekend as they will play twice as many matches. The scoring is different this week as all the emphasis is placed on winning holes. The more matches a golfer plays, the more holes they can win. Fantasy scoring is vastly different than usual this week. Be sure to familiarize yourself with the DraftKings scoring rules prior to finalizing your rosters.
You want to make sure that you don’t roster two (or even three) players from the same group on the same roster. Only one player can advance to the weekend out of a group. This is a good week to look at mass multi-entering (MME) as there are a lot of combinations that can propel your lineup to the top.
The greens at Austin C.C. are Bermuda and the players that have gained the most strokes putting in the last 24 rounds are Jason Day ($9,800), Marc Leishman ($8,800), Billy Horschel ($7,300), Jim Furyk ($7,200), and Chez Reavie ($6,700). Conversely, players that have struggled the most recently on Bermuda greens include Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200), Keegan Bradley ($7,200), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,000).
This is a Pete Dye course design. The players that seem to have the best recent form on Pete Dye tracts are Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Brooks Koepka ($10,300), Jason Day ($9,800), Webb Simpson ($8,300), and Si Woo Kim ($6,500). On the flip side, in the last 24 rounds on Pete Dye courses, Eddie Pepperell ($6,900), Hao Tong Li ($6,800), and Keith Mitchell ($6,400) have lost the most total shots relative to the field.
This is a match play event and some players are better than others at this format. There are five golfers that have won at least 65% of their professional or international match-play head-to-heads (at least five matches played). Jason Day ($9,800), Tiger Woods ($9,200), Ian Poulter ($7,700), Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,000), and Alex Noren ($7,000) are the five players that seem best suited to match play historically speaking. The three players that have played at least five head-to-head contests but have winning percentages of less than 25% include Keegan Bradley ($7,200), Emiliano Grillo ($6,900), and Byeong-Hun An ($6,300). Match play records are courtesy of Adam Sarson.
In looking at just this past Ryder Cup, Francesco Molinari ($9,300) and Henrik Stenson ($7,600) had undefeated overall records at 5-0-0 and 3-0-0, respectively. Justin Thomas ($11,00) had the best record for the Americans at 4-1-0.
Check the weather as there could be some slightly cooler temperatures. Additionally, since it is Texas, wind can always be a factor. If wind does happen to be a factor, then Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Jon Rahm ($10,600), Sergio Garcia ($8,500), Matt Kuchar ($8,100), and Luke List ($6,800) may be worth keeping an eye on as they rate out as the best in the last 24 rounds in windy conditions. Brooks Koepka ($10,300), Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($6,700), and Andrew Putnam ($6,100) have struggled the most in the wind during the last 24 rounds of play.
Dustin Johnson won the WGC-Mexico Championship back in February. In 2017, he become only the second player in history to win back-to-back WGCs when he also won the WGC-Mexico Championship and the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Tiger Woods has won back-to-back WGCs on five different occasions.
Bubba Watson’s winning margin of 7&6 last year was the largest since the event moved to an 18-hole championship match back in 2011.
Be aware that statistics (e.g. Strokes Gained categories) from previous WGC-Match Play events are unreliable since those are based upon the field average. In match play, golfers do not always play the same number of holes.
Past results of the WGC-Match Play Championship (in its’ current format) include:
2018: Bubba Watson defeating Kevin Kisner
2017: Dustin Johnson defeated Jon Rahm
2016: Jason Day defeated Louis Oosthuizen
2015: Rory McIlroy defeated Gary Woodland
CORALES TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Corales Golf Course is really long (7,668 yards) but it is not particularly difficult. The long par 72 course has wide and forgiving fairways.
This event began in 2016 as a Web.com tournament stop. Last year was the first year that it was a full-time PGA Tour event.
Dominic Bozzelli won in 2016 at 24-under par, Nate Lashley won in 2017 at 20-under par, and Brice Garnett won last year with 18-under par.
The cut line was Even par last year after being 4-under par in 2017 and 5-under par in 2016.
The golfers in this week’s field that have finished in the top five at this event in the previous two years include: Brice Garnett (2018), Paul Dunne (2018), Harris English (2018), Kelly Kraft (2018), Tom Lovelady (2018), Seamus Power (2018), Denny McCarthy (2018), Seung-su Han (2018), Nate Lashley (2017), Rafael Campos (2017), Seth Reeves (2017), Dominic Bozzelli (2016), and Roberto Diaz (2016).
FAVORITE CORALES PLAYS ($9,000 & ABOVE)
I am not sure that I will roster many players above $9,000 this week. None of the players are sure things to finish near the top, or even make the cut, for that matter. All these players have flaws. Combine this with the fact that the 6K range is terrible and I will probably stick to the mid-tier players as I try to construct lineups that give me the best percentage chance on getting 5/6 or 6/6 through to the weekend. With that being said, here are the four golfers I’d consider paying up for…
Jhonattan Vegas ($11,500)
Vegas is the highest priced player and is playing well as he has four top-25 finishes in his last five events, including a third-place finish at The PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He leads this field in total strokes gained in the last five events. Vegas has made five of seven cuts in the 2019 calendar year.
Sungjae Im ($11,300)
He missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship but so did a lot of other golfers. That missed cut was sandwiched between a third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a fourth-place finish last week at the Valspar Championship when he made a valiant Sunday charge. Only Vegas has gained more total strokes in the last five events than Im has (of the players in this field).
Nate Lashley ($10,100)
Made eight straight cuts prior to missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He had two top-12 finishes in his three PGA Tour events prior to the API. He was the winner here in 2017 and finished 28th last year.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,900)
I love his game and he is going to break through for a win one of these days. He is a great ball-striker and has a great tee-to-green game, which is needed to do well here. After a shaky start to 2019, he has since made four straight cuts. Remember, that Niemann had four top-10 finishes in his first nine starts as a professional last year so he definitely has the talent to contend on Sunday at a tournament like this.
FAVORITE $8,000 CORALES PLAYS
Rory Sabbatini ($8,800)
This price is definitely more than we are used to paying for him, but remember that prices are all relative to that particular week’s field. He has been trending upwards as he finished 18th at the Valspar this past week. That was after a 36th and 35th finish at the API and PLAYERS, respectively. He finished 43rd last year in his first time teeing it up at this event. At this price point, I like his chances to make a run at a top-10 finish.
Jonathan Byrd ($8,300)
Leads the field with eight straight made cuts on the PGA Tour (he did miss the cut in the Web.com Tour Championship back in September). He has three top-25 finishes in his last four events. He hasn’t exactly tore up the Corales but he has made the cut each of the last two years.
Kelly Kraft ($8,100)
He finished third here last year. He has made the cut each of the last two weeks (Valspar and The PLAYERS). He had a top-10 finish at the Genesis back in February. He has missed more cuts than he has made in 2019 but looks to be trending in the right direction recently.
Julian Etulain ($8,000)
I have been playing him quite a bit in 2019 as a low-owned, low-priced option. It will be interesting to see if his price increase causes him to lose value. My guess is that he will perform better in this weaker field. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight events. Unfortunately, his best finish during that time has been 24th. Fortunately, that was last week at the Valspar so he seems to be playing his best golf right now. He did finish 41st here in 2016 when he was on the Web.com Tour.
FAVORITE $7,000 CORALES PLAYS
Jonas Blixt ($7,800)
His 42nd-place finish at last week’s Valspar gave him his fourth straight made cut. He finished 15th back in February at the Genesis. Only Joel Dahmen has scored more fantasy points in the last 24 rounds (of golfers in this field) than has Blixt.
Adam Schenk ($7,400)
He stumbled last week at the Valspar but had made the cut in seven of his last eight events prior to that. He had three straight top-30 finishes prior to his MC at the Valspar. He seems to like this course as he has finished 12>35>41 in his three years here. In the last 24 rounds he has played, he ranks in the top-10 in greens hit in regulation. He is also one of the best ball strikers in the field.
Brian Stuard ($7,400)
He has made the cut in seven of his eight events in the 2019 calendar year. The only MC is at The PLAYERS Championship, which can be dismissed easily. He is coming off a top-20 finish at the Valspar this past week. He has one of the better flat sticks and short games on tour so he could be someone that heats up this week.
D.J. Trahan ($7,000)
He has only played three times this calendar year. Since missing the cut at the Desert Classic, he has two straight top-20 finishes. Overall, he has made the cut in six of his last seven events going back to last year’s Barabsol event. During that time, he has four top-10 finishes. He finished 60th here last year. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in fantasy scoring and fourth in total strokes gained among golfers in this field. He is a very good ball-striker and has a solid approach game. His biggest weakness has been his putter.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
