Identifying MLB teams with unsettled ninth innings doesn’t remove many teams from the conversation. Two years ago, 16 pitchers recorded at least 30 saves. That number slipped to 11 in both 2017 and 2018. More teams are willing to play to the situation rather than the save rule, which is smart for them, but terrible for fantasy managers in standard-scoring leagues.

Read through Andrew Seifter’s team-by-team closer outlook and see how many clubs have a set closer for 2019. It’s maybe half the squads, at most, and that’s including guys like Shane Greene, who could quickly squander the seat due to poor performance.

On one hand, this should persuade drafters to rethink the old “don’t pay for saves” mantra and get at least one steady closer. Then again, this also gives everyone more choices to gamble on late in the draft. With more teams ready to defy modern convention, some situations will never receive any clarity this season. A few are still worth targeting, as the following relievers possess the perfect blend of skills and a plausible path to saves.

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Boston Red Sox: Matt Barnes
Other Save Candidates: Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, Heath Hembree

Early drafters appeared to work under the assumption that Boston would bring back Craig Kimbrel or acquire another ninth-inning replacement. Yet Kimbrel remains a free agent, and Red Sox chairman Tom Werner, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne, said it’s “extremely unlikely” the Red Sox bring him back. Unless they really like Bud Norris or Ryan Madson, no other viable ninth-inning alternatives remain available on the open market.

It’s time to move Barnes up draft boards. The 28-year-old is especially the leading in-house saves candidate now that Brasier is dealing with an infected right pinky toe. While Barnes sports a career 4.14 ERA, he also set a new personal low (3.65) last season with even better performance-indicators under the hood. Buoyed by the ninth-highest strikeout rate (36.2%) of all qualified relievers, he posted a 2.71 FIP and 2.78 SIERA. Having also yielded the eighth-lowest contact rate (64.7%) and induced double-digit swinging-strike rates on all four of his pitches, he could transfer 100-strikeout upside from the setup role.

Far from a sure thing, he also issued a ghastly 11.7% walk rate in 2018 and permitted 13 runs over his final 15 outings. But let’s not get greedy about an elite strikeout hurler who could close for the reigning champions. At least not while he remains available around pick 300.

Chicago Cubs: Pedro Strop
Other Save Candidates: Brandon Morrow (injured), C.J. Edwards, Steve Cishek, Brad Brach

Maybe this is cheating, as Strop is likely to open 2019 as the Cubs’ closer until Morrow returns from right elbow surgery. The real uncertainty begins when/if Morrow comes back.

Morrow could arrive as soon as late April to potentially reclaim his role. Even if his recovery goes according to plan, it’s foolish to expect the base-case scenario for a 34-year-old who hasn’t worked 50 big league innings since 2013. The Cubs should also limit his workload to avoid another setback, meaning Strop and others could still see some save opportunities.

This is a case to play for now rather than trying to project a long-term unknown. Strop has submitted a sub-3.00 ERA with a swinging-strike rate of 15.5% or higher in each of his five seasons with the Cubs. He should at least function as closer for a few weeks, which could easily wind up extending through months or even the entire season. There’s no guarantee Morrow comes back anytime soon, and there’s also no assurance of him promptly getting handed the final frame. Take some cheap saves and strikeouts from Strop out of the gate.

Minnesota Twins: Trevor May
Other Save Candidates: Blake Parker, Fernando Romero, Trevor Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers

This admittedly felt like a better call earlier in the offseason. The Twins added another ninth-inning option by signing Parker, who posted a 2.90 ERA as the Angels’ on-and-off closer over the last two seasons. They also may move Romero to the bullpen, where the 24-year-old righty could leverage his wipeout slider into a high-leverage role.

Minnesota’s best reliever last season, Rogers, recorded a 2.63 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 68.1 frames. He didn’t allow a run in his final 28 outings after July 28, but the southpaw would be better deployed in key spots against same-handed hitters. And don’t forget about Hildenberger, who operated in the role after the AL Central club traded Fernando Rodney last August.

The crowded bullpen has no clear-cut closer favorite to commence spring training. Most drafters, however, are hoping May gets a chance to run away with the job. After missing all of 2017 and most of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he returned to stockpile 36 strikeouts and five walks over 25.1 promising innings. He notched a stellar 15.4% swinging-strike rate in his brief comeback while touting a 2.17 SIERA. The former starter certainly comes with added injury risk, but he’s also a game-changer if given the chance.

Of course, there’s a possibility first-year manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t choose one reliever to rack up saves. This is nevertheless one of the most intriguing bullpen battles to monitor through spring and into April. For now, May makes the best speculative pick of the bunch.

San Francisco Giants: Will Smith
Other Save Candidates: Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson, Ray Black. Reyes Moronta

Smith emerged as an elite reliever last season, but Melancon is paid like one. Despite allowing a .302 batting average with the worst strikeout (17.8%) and walk (8.1%) rates of his career, the veteran righty remains in play for saves to start the season.

Also making a successful return from Tommy John surgery, Smith submitted a 2.55 ERA, 2.07 FIP, and 26.7% K-BB rate that put him narrowly ahead of Kimbrel, Brad Hand, and Blake Treinen. Having dominated lefties (.198 wOBA) and righties (.248 wOBA), the Fresh Prince of San Francisco need not get typecast as a southpaw specialist. Smith would make a far superior fantasy closer to Melancon, who got tattooed to a 43.0% hard-hit rate last season.

Yet if given the role, Melancon can’t be ignored. As an elite stopper from 2013-2016, he still rode a 52.0% ground-ball rate to a 3.23 ERA last season. Nobody should expect a return to top form, but he could limit runs enough to keep the job and compile saves.

Tampa Bay Rays: Jose Alvarado
Other Save Candidates: Diego Castillo, Chaz Roe, Jose De Leon

The Rays are the most likely team in this group to eschew a closer altogether. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Kevin Cash said he feels “no urgency” to name a ninth-inning man. Yet despite unveiling their opener strategy, Sergio Romo recorded 25 saves after they traded Alex Colome last year. The veteran righty switched Florida locations to Miami, where he’ll compete with Drew Steckenrider for the stopper role.

That leaves Alvarado as the team’s returning saves leader at just eight. If given the role, he has the skills to emerge as a top-10 closer. The 23-year-old southpaw posted a 2.39 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate and a 55.0% ground-ball rate. Only walks (11.0%) blocked his path to stardom, but he made modest improvements (9.9%) after the All-Star break, during which he tallied a 1.37 FIP. An unhittable slider that yielded a .123 wOBA and 29.6% swinging-strike rate should propel him to either a top-notch closer or viable source of strikeouts and ratios.

Alvarado is the Rays reliever to draft for saves, but Castillo’s SP eligibility makes him an interesting asset in roto and head-to-head leagues with daily lineup changes. The 25-year-old could feasibly ride his high-90s heater into a prominent late-inning role.

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