“Go big or go home” is a phrase that can apply to many things, including your fantasy baseball drafts. Sure, there’s something to be said about drafting those “safe” or “boring” high-floor players we can trust to get the job done. We’ve likely already seen the best from guys like Anthony Rizzo, George Springer, or Jean Segura, but you know exactly what you’re going to get from them.
However, there’s always the allure of going for broke on those boom-or-bust players with tantalizing ceilings. Maybe these guys have an injury history, are coming off a down year, or have yet to prove themselves at the major league level. Sometimes you need to take a calculated risk on potential. While you’re not going to hit the jackpot every time, a dream season can help propel your team to a title.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at five infielders who carry added risk at their draft costs but possess fantastic upside.
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Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE)
ADP: 6
Look, you don’t need me to tell you how awesome Francisco Lindor is. He’s coming off a ridiculous 2018 campaign in which he posted 129 runs, 38 home runs, 92 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases with a .277 average. Under normal circumstances, he would easily be a top-five draft pick.
But after suffering a calf strain near the beginning of February with an expected recovery time of seven to nine weeks, he’s in danger of missing Opening Day. As a result, his 2019 outlook isn’t nearly as straightforward anymore. Given that timetable, perhaps Lindor just misses a couple of weeks to start the year and then picks up right where he left off, but this is the type of nagging injury that could linger or recur. Just look at Josh Donaldson’s struggles with calf injuries that cost him significant time in each of the past two seasons.
Linder is now typically going towards the end of the first round, sometimes even dropping into the middle of the second. If his recovery goes without any hiccups, you could have a five-category superstar at a sizable discount. On the other hand, the worst-case scenario is choosing a player who could very well be hampered for weeks, or even months if he suffers a setback.
For all the research we collectively put into player evaluation, the sad truth is first-round picks bust far more often than we would like to admit. Throw in using a first-round pick on an already injured player, and you could potentially be putting yourself behind the eight ball right from the get-go.
All that said, there’s no denying the possible profit you could enjoy by taking a player of Lindor’s caliber later than he would normally go. Under the circumstances, taking him in the first round still feels too risky. If he drops into the middle of the second round, it’s tough to pass on his massive ceiling.
Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC)
ADP: 70
Of course, no list like this could exist without mentioning 2019’s most divisive player, Adalberto Mondesi.
As a late waiver-wire pickup in 2018, Mondesi nearly single-handedly altered standings by hitting 14 bombs and stealing 32 bases in just 75 games. Registering a 99th percentile sprint speed with solid barrel numbers, it’s easy to dream of the 23-year-old’s power/speed possibilities over a full season. Fantasy drafters haven’t been afraid to take the plunge early. In last week’s TGFBI drafts, which include 315 fantasy analysts across 21 leagues, Mondesi went as high as 28th overall, with nine drafters taking him inside the top 40. Mondesi Mania is at its peak.
However, we’re still only talking about a half-season sample size, one that definitely possesses red flags. Mondesi’s 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate last year leave a lot to be desired, and despite owning a .335 BABIP, he only managed a .306 OBP. Those worrisome plate skills should remind us of one Byron Buxton. The Twins outfielder received similar hype after a stellar second-half finish in 2017, only to crash and burn in spectacular fashion as one of 2018’s biggest busts. The early pick batted just .156/.183/.200 over 94 major league plate appearances. Injuries and a minor league demotion were partially to blame for Buxton’s poor output, but it’s a harsh reminder of the very real downside of trusting Mondesi based on limited MLB success with obvious flaws.
And yet, it’s hard to deny the ceiling of a guy with elite speed and double-digit home run power, and projections suggest he could get in the neighborhood of 20 homers and 40 swiped bags. As long as the strikeouts don’t get out of hand, his blazing speed should keep his average in the .250 range. While the Royals figure to be one of the weaker offenses this season, a high spot in the lineup will help his counting stats across the board.
You have to ask yourself how much you truly trust last year’s small sample size, and you’re taking a major risk if you reach earlier than his current ADP. Still, the best-case scenario is that of a first rounder, so he’s hard to resist after the top-40 picks.
Josh Donaldson (3B – ATL)
ADP: 92
A first-round pick as recently as 2017, the aforementioned Donaldson played 113 games in 2017 and 52 games last season. He’s now barely going inside the top 100, which potentially grants us a buying opportunity — if you trust he can stay on the field this time around.
After all, when he’s out there, Donaldson has still looked the part of an extremely productive hitter. Despite the missed time in 2017, he still slugged 33 home runs and posted a 151 wRC+ that ranked in the top 10 among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances that year. The injuries took a bigger toll on his bottom line in 2018, but even then he showed signs of life following a trade to Cleveland by posting an eerily similar 149 wRC+ over 16 games.
Now 33 years old, it’s fair to wonder if these recent bouts with injury are the exception or the new normal for Donaldson. But given his stellar track record and the positive signs he has shown when healthy, it’s a gamble worth taking at his lowered draft price. His strikeout rate has risen the last two years (24.7% in 2018), so he may no longer be a batting average asset. However, there could still be another 30-plus homers left in his bat.
Yoan Moncada (2B – CWS)
ADP: 156
The MLB leader in strikeouts last season (217), it’s easy to see why Yoan Moncada isn’t getting the same attention he was this time last year. Over 650 plate appearances, he only tallied 73 runs, 17 home runs, 61 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases with a .235 average. That’s not exactly moving the needle.
No, the former top prospect didn’t come through with that breakout, but we have to remember it was his first full major league season. His Statcast numbers showed plenty of promise, with an average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and sprint speed all above the 80th percentile. While that ugly 33.4% strikeout rate has to improve for Moncada to take the next step, he did put up an encouraging 10.3% walk rate. His plate skills might not be a total lost cause. And despite the underwhelming stolen base count, we can’t forget the past potential he’s shown on that front, exceeding 40 stolen bases twice in the minors (2015 and 2016).
Moncada should have every chance to succeed on a rebuilding White Sox squad, and now is the right time to buy back in while most have jumped off the bandwagon. He’s already shown solid pop, so if he can just tap into that speed more and cut down the whiffs, he could come through with that 20-20 season we hoped for a year earlier.
Miguel Sano (3B – MIN)
ADP: 196
Editor’s Note: Sano is now expected to be out until May due to injury, which will cause his ADP to drop further. Given his track record, he’ll enter the season as one of the more intriguing injury stash options.
If Moncada was disappointing in 2018, then Miguel Sano was a straight-up disaster, batting just .199/.281/.398 with 13 long balls over 299 plate appearances in another injury-marred campaign. Sano has yet to play more than 120 games in a season, and he continues to be plagued by whiffs, with last season’s 38.5% strikeout rate marking a career-worst.
But you shouldn’t give up just yet on Sano, who only turns 26 in May and still has a power ceiling through the roof. If he maintained last season’s career mark in barrels per plate appearance (15.6), it would’ve ranked the 10th-best on the 2018 Statcast leaderboard. Really, health is the only thing that has ever prevented him from reaching 30 home runs in a season. He owns a career .233 ISO with a 42.6% fly-ball rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate, and his HR/FB rate has never dipped below 20%.
With a full season of at-bats, it isn’t crazy to think Sano could not only exceed 30 homers but reach 40 and put up similar numbers to Joey Gallo or Khris Davis. Given his track record, that remains a big if, but the price is right to speculate and imagine the possibilities.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.