Finding the next breakout player in fantasy can be a daunting task. It’s easy to look at a guy and say that they are due for a big year, but in order for that claim to have merit, you need the why.
In order to get a leg up on your competition in drafts and on the waiver wire, it’s crucial to find players who are going to improve and return a better value than the acquisition cost.
Here are some players I like to break out in 2019.
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David Dahl (OF – COL)
Health and opportunity. Those have been the two roadblocks in Dahl’s way throughout his career. The injuries have been mostly fluky, and last September showed that he still has potential. The Rockies are now, finally, committed to playing the left-hander every day as their starting left fielder.
You’re looking at a 25-homer, 13-steal guy in Dahl with a .270-.275 average. That’s similar to the good version of Tommy Pham that we saw in 2017 and the second half of 2018.
Danny Jansen (C – TOR)
If a catcher has a heartbeat, you want him. When a catcher has all of the playing time, a minor-league pedigree, and can hit for double-digit home runs while taking walks, you WANT him.
That’s Jansen.
Using Steamer’s projections, Jansen is projected 10th in the position for home runs (12), 16th in average (.256), eighth in OBP (.335), and tied for fifth in wRC+ (108). He’s going ninth among catchers — including the now-injured Salvador Perez — after pick 205.
Jansen will be a top-five catcher heading into drafts next year. Book it.
Austin Meadows (OF – TB)
This Chris Archer trade is going to look really, really bad for the Pirates. Tyler Glasnow already showed signs of breaking out with Tampa Bay, and Meadows is next on the list.
Before getting moved, Meadows filled in admirably for the suspended Starling Marte. Meadows played just 10 games for the Rays, but he’s set to take over full-time duties in the outfield. To reach his peak, he’ll have to continue his success against lefties at the major-league level. He has top-20 outfielder potential.
Luis Castillo (SP – CIN)
There isn’t a discount on Castillo coming into 2019, which is somewhat of a surprise after he failed to return value on his ADP heading into 2018. He has put together two great halves and one miserable one so far in his career.
This is the year he puts it all together.
Castillo needs to limit his high-pitch innings this year and prove he can go deeper in games. He still has elite velocity, as his average fastball speed of 96.4 mph was the eighth-best among qualified starters. He has a top-tier K% but needs to harness his control to reach the next level.
If you’re looking for one player to make a Luis Severino-type jump this year, it’s Castillo.
Jose Peraza (SS – CIN)
Player A: .288/.326/.416, 14 home runs, 23 steals
Player B: .290/.366/.465, 16 home runs, 21 steals
Player A is Peraza. Player B is Andrew Benintendi. (H/t Walter McMichael for this comparison.) Yes, their numbers were that close last season. True, Benintendi plays on the Red Sox, but in case you missed it, the Reds’ lineup is fantastic this season.
Hitting at the top of that lineup is Peraza. A top-10 shortstop whom no one is talking about this year, he will contribute in every major category outside of RBIs.
Trevor Richards (SP – MIA)
Richards’ changeup was one of the most elite pitches in 2018. It offsets his low-90s fastball and lack of a dominant third pitch. If Richards can get an improved curveball, you’re looking at a top-50 pitcher. He’s the ace of Miami’s staff.
Michael Conforto (OF – NYM)
Conforto’s headed into 2018 recovering from a brutal shoulder injury, and there wasn’t a great success rate for a positive return in the past. However, the players who suffered the same shoulder injury before Conforto were all pitchers.
Conforto had an elite HR/FB ratio, but it aligned with his hard-hit rate. He also continued to grow as a hitter against lefties, upping his home run total and average from 2017. He has legit superstar upside.
Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX)
Speaking of superstar upside, it’s easy to forget that Mazara is only 23 years old. Last season’s numbers were carried by an unsustainable 10-homer May, during which he had an absurd 58.8 HR/FB%.
However, the hot start does show Mazara’s potential. He continues to hit far too many grounders and struggles against left-handed pitching. You’re buying the pedigree with Mazara, and it’s only a matter of time until he hits us with a .280 season with 30 homers. I’m banking on 2019 being that year in a sneaky-good Rangers lineup.
Wilmer Flores (1B/2B – ARI)
How did you keep busy this offseason? Well, whatever it was, I’m sure it was fun and cool. But was it as fun as looking at Steamer projections and seeing how many studs Flores is projected to be better than?
OK, I may need a life.
Flores has an opportunity as Arizona’s everyday second baseman. Don’t believe the narrative that he’s only a lefty-crusher, either. His splits are pretty even throughout his career, which is big for Arizona to give him regular run against both righties and lefties.
Flores is projected to have better end-of-season numbers than Gleyber Torres. If you’re looking at a dynasty league, of course you take Torres. Yet if you want a potential top-12 second baseman who can be had for nothing, wait for Flores.
Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI)
Pivetta is the consensus “sleeper” among the industry this year. By every measure, he should have been a top-20 fantasy starter last year. There’s a chance that it wasn’t all bad luck, but I tend to believe the peripherals. He’s a trendy pick, so make sure there’s still room for him to return value on draft day.
Zach Eflin (SP – PHI)
If Pivetta’s ADP gets pushed up too high, I’m targeting Eflin. One big aspect that can help out all of the Phillies’ pitchers this year is the improved defense. Rhys Hoskins isn’t playing the outfield anymore. Jean Segura is manning shortstop.
Eflin is a ground-ball pitcher who had one of the game’s lowest strand rates (68.4%) last season. Because of Philadelphia’s putrid fielding, Pivetta and Jake Arrieta joined him near the bottom.
As the 92nd starter off the board on average, I’ll take my chances on Eflin wherever I can get him and hope that improved defense will help him pitch to his 3.80 FIP instead of his 4.36 ERA.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
