Welcome to another Monday of DFS in the NBA. Football is now officially over, so the NBA takes center stage while baseball still gets ramped up. We have a decent sized six-game slate to work with this evening, and the question of whether or not to fade James Harden (the slate’s highest-priced player) lingers. Along with Harden, there are only two other players that reach the $10,000 level (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic). This means there will be some opportunity to fit in a good mix of top-tier players tonight.
There are a few matchups worth targeting, Atlanta at Washington appears with the highest implied total of the slate at 233, with Houston at Phoenix coming in a close second at 230. Keep in mind these numbers are as of this morning. A third matchup that could be worth a look is San Antonio at Sacramento, which carries an implied total of 227. There are definitely plenty of players who could put up big totals.
A little about this article: The goal is to highlight the players who have the best chance of helping you finish in the green, so it is not necessarily meant as a lineup-building article. Players listed are ones I’ll be considering for all my lineups, and I’ll work to fit in as many as I can. There will be statistical evidence to back these players that will include matchups, recent play/trending, etc. There will be two players listed as top options, with the exception of the center position, which will have one. As always, keep up with the latest injury news and late scratches all the way up to tip-off. With NBA DFS, things can change just minutes before games start. Good luck!
Welcome to another Monday of DFS in the NBA. Football is now officially over, so the NBA takes center stage while baseball still gets ramped up. We have a decent sized six-game slate to work with this evening, and the question of whether or not to fade James Harden (the slate’s highest-priced player) lingers. Along with Harden, there are only two other players that reach the $10,000 level (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic). This means there will be some opportunity to fit in a good mix of top-tier players tonight.
There are a few matchups worth targeting, Atlanta at Washington appears with the highest implied total of the slate at 233, with Houston at Phoenix coming in a close second at 230. Keep in mind these numbers are as of this morning. A third matchup that could be worth a look is San Antonio at Sacramento, which carries an implied total of 227. There are definitely plenty of players who could put up big totals.
A little about this article: The goal is to highlight the players who have the best chance of helping you finish in the green, so it is not necessarily meant as a lineup-building article. Players listed are ones I’ll be considering for all my lineups, and I’ll work to fit in as many as I can. There will be statistical evidence to back these players that will include matchups, recent play/trending, etc. There will be two players listed as top options, with the exception of the center position, which will have one. As always, keep up with the latest injury news and late scratches all the way up to tip-off. With NBA DFS, things can change just minutes before games start. Good luck!
Check out today’s NBA Slam from FanDuel
Point Guard
Chris Paul (HOU): $7,300 @ PHO
To get such a player of this caliber at this level of salary is a unique situation. In three games since returning from a hamstring injury, Chris Paul has averaged 14 points, four rebounds and seven assists resulting, in a 32.2 FanDuel (FD) points per game. Tonight, however, he’ll have an opportunity to build on those numbers against a Phoenix team that ranks 25th against point guards in a matchup that has an implied total of 230 points. It’s a good spot for Paul to get in some more work and potentially even log 30+ minutes for the first time since returning. He still ranks second on the Rockets in usage behind Harden, so he’ll definitely be involved often. He carries a lot of upside tonight, and if nothing else will provide a very solid floor, as he’s reached at least 30 FD points in each of the last three games. It’d be wise to grab him now, especially while his salary is still in this range.
Trae Young (ATL): $7,600 @ WAS
With his recent form (40+ FD points in four of the past five games), Trae Young finds himself in this list as a player that carries a lot of upside. Coming into this evening, the Wizards rank 28th against point guards. This also is the matchup carrying the slate’s highest implied total, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Young to continue his recent hot play. He’s the team-leader in usage rate (26.2) by almost four percentage points, so he’ll be involved early and often. The rookie has scored at least 23 points and recorded at least eight assists in five straight games. Young seems to have the perfect mix of opportunity, recent hot play, and a plus matchup to deliver a solid performance. He’ll need 38 FD points to get to 5X value tonight, and he has a very good chance of exceeding that.
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan (SAS): $7,800 @ SAC
DeMar DeRozan has been a bit up and down this season, but he remains the type of player that offers 60+ FD point upside on any given night. This evening he draws a matchup with the Kings, who rank 18th against the shooting guard position. The game has an implied total of 227 points, meaning there will be plenty of opportunity for success. I’m always an advocate of choosing a player who leads his team in usage rate (which DeRozan does) in a game with a high implied total. While his past couple of games haven’t been stellar in his return from knee soreness, I’m betting that DeRozan can expose a soft Kings defense tonight.
James Harden (HOU): $13,800 @ PHO
I’ve chosen to include Harden for those debating whether to fade him. If you are leaning towards choosing him, then read on. Harden has been on an absolute tear lately. In the past 12 games, he has finished below the 69 FD points he’d need for 5X value tonight just three times. In that same span of games he’s reached at least 80 FD points four times, including a 95 FD point outburst against the Knicks on January 23. It’s impossible to ignore what he’s doing to the league right now, and tonight he gets a pace-up matchup with the Suns. While they’re respectable defensively against shooting guards (14th), Harden can still continue his hot play in a game with a high implied total (230). Some were concerned about the impact Paul’s return would have, but Harden has logged 69.2, 54.7, and 89.9 FD points, respectively, in Paul’s three games back. You know you’ll get guaranteed production out of Harden, so it makes complete sense to choose him even at his inflated salary.
Small Forward
Otto Porter Jr. (WAS): $6,600 vs ATL
I’ll be getting a couple players from this game into my lineup because of the 233 total implied points. Otto Porter Jr. shows up here since he has now started two consecutive games after spending 13 games as a reserve upon returning from a leg injury. If he draws the start tonight, it’s a good opportunity to slot a player with 40+ FD point upside into your lineups at a relatively cap-friendly cost. He’s coming off a solid 18-point, seven-rebound performance against the Bucks, resulting in 40.4 FD points. Atlanta ranks a dreadful 29th against small forwards, and in a game that should be close, there will be more opportunities for Porter Jr. to collect additional points. His selection is tied to starting, however, so keep an eye on the situation and roll him into lineups confidently if he starts for Washington.
Rudy Gay (SAS): $6,200 @ SAC
Rudy Gay appears on this list because he’s one of the most stable players in DFS. He has an opportunity tonight in a plus matchup against the Kings, who rank 24th against small forwards in a game currently listed with an implied total of 227 points. At this salary, Gay would need 31 FD points to get to 5X value, which he’s done in three of the past five games. He’s registered at least 26 FD points in eight straight games, so you can see the type of floor he provides. He’s one of the safest bets in the slate tonight to not disappoint and still provide a steady amount of production, with potential for 40+ FD point upside due to the matchup.
Power Forward
Kenrich Williams (NOR): $4,900 vs IND
This is the first time I have mentioned Kenrich Williams, and it’s purely the result of an opportunity arising for a typical reserve. With Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, and Anthony Davis all ruled out for tonight, the door opens again for Williams. At this salary, he’d need 24.5 FD points to get to 5X value and validate his selection. He’s done that in every game he’s seen at least 29 minutes. In three games where he has seen consistent action, Williams posted FD point totals of 25.1, 39.1, and 30.7. He’s a safe bet to see that kind of playing time again with the Pelicans so thin on the front line. Indiana does rank sixth against power forwards, so the matchup isn’t ideal, but this is more about the opportunity for Williams than the matchup. It’s a good cap-saving move for a player who will see a lot of court time and has been playing well of late.
John Collins (ATL): $7,600 @ WAS
Washington ranks 23rd against opposing power forwards, and this game sports the highest implied total of the slate. Enter John Collins, who ranks second on the Hawks in usage rate (22.7%) behind only Young (26.2%). I like to target high-usage players in games with high implied totals, especially when the opposing defense struggles defending the position. Collins is a solid player who can absolutely fill it up at any given time; he’s scored 30 or more points in two of the past six games. His rebounding can also help boost his production, which he showed by grabbing 16 rebounds in Saturday’s most recent outing. Collins offers huge upside of 50+ FD points, which he did on Saturday. If you choose Collins, look no further than his usage rate and matchup. He’s a likely threat to get to double-double territory, which he’s done in three of the past eight games as well.
Center
Myles Turner (IND): $7,100 @ NOR
Myles Turner gets a nice matchup against a thin Pelicans frontcourt tonight. New Orleans, which ranks 20th against the center position, will play without its top-three front-line players (Davis, Randle, and Mirotic). Selecting Turner would be an effort to expose that matchup, but he is certainly no slouch. He’s recorded at least 30 FD points in eight of the past 10 games. His salary seems relatively modest given this type of production. Needing just 35.5 FD points to get to 5X value, he has reached that level in three of the past four games. He’s a double-double threat on any given night and will likely face a frontcourt of reserves tonight, so it’s a good opportunity to build on his strong recent play. I’ve picked Turner because of the matchup mostly, but be confident in doing so. At the very least he’ll provide a nice floor and won’t sink your lineup.
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Chris Berg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @bergey13.