It’s another Monday in the world of NBA DFS, and we have a huge 11-game slate to work with tonight. With such a big slate, there is plenty of room to differentiate your lineup to finish in the green. It’ll be important to pick out the value plays, especially with the absence of some of the superstars tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful tonight, which is unfortunate given his juicy matchup with the Bulls. James Harden is listed as questionable with neck soreness in a good matchup with the Hawks, Joel Embiid remains out due to left knee soreness. It’s always crucial to pay attention to the latest injury news/scratches in NBA DFS, and that will certainly be the case tonight as well with big names hanging in the balance.
With so many games on the slate, identifying the ones with the highest implied totals can help break the tie if you’re trying to decide between a couple players. It appears that tonight’s highest implied total belongs to the 76ers and the Pelicans at 238, followed by the Spurs/Nets at 231 and the Warriors/Hornets at 233. Numbers for the Rockets/Hawks haven’t been reported yet, so that game could also reach the 230+ mark. These games will be a focus of mine when deciding between players.
It’s another Monday in the world of NBA DFS, and we have a huge 11-game slate to work with tonight. With such a big slate, there is plenty of room to differentiate your lineup to finish in the green. It’ll be important to pick out the value plays, especially with the absence of some of the superstars tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful tonight, which is unfortunate given his juicy matchup with the Bulls. James Harden is listed as questionable with neck soreness in a good matchup with the Hawks, Joel Embiid remains out due to left knee soreness. It’s always crucial to pay attention to the latest injury news/scratches in NBA DFS, and that will certainly be the case tonight as well with big names hanging in the balance.
With so many games on the slate, identifying the ones with the highest implied totals can help break the tie if you’re trying to decide between a couple players. It appears that tonight’s highest implied total belongs to the 76ers and the Pelicans at 238, followed by the Spurs/Nets at 231 and the Warriors/Hornets at 233. Numbers for the Rockets/Hawks haven’t been reported yet, so that game could also reach the 230+ mark. These games will be a focus of mine when deciding between players.
As always, I’ll list two players from each position with the exception of center, which will have one. This article is meant to highlight players I believe have the best chance to help your lineup to finish in the green and is not meant as a lineup construction article. I’ll evaluate recent play, matchup, and projected lineups to select the players of focus. Stay up-to-date with all the latest scratches and injury news up to tip-off. Good luck!
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Point Guard
Ben Simmons (PHI): $9,000 @ NOR
Simmons gets a nice matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who rank 27th in defense against the point guard position in addition to this being the game listed with the highest implied total right now at 238 points. With a predicted score of 118 for the 76ers and with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, Simmons will be in line for some additional work. Without Embiid, Simmons sees a usage rate increase of almost three percent, which is good news for a player that already ranks second on the team in usage (Embiid is the leader in usage rate). In his last game against Portland, a game that Embiid also missed, Simmons posted a 29-point, seven-rebound, and 10-assist stat line resulting in 48.4 FanDuel (FD) points. He ranks fourth in salary at the point, so if you plan on paying up at point guard, Simmons would be a good bet.
Chris Paul (HOU): $8,400 vs. ATL
With Harden listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup, Paul would be a good player to target. Even if Harden does play, it’s likely he won’t carry the load he’s typically used to as he may not be 100 percent. Paul has taken advantage of his increase in usage with Harden (neck/flu) not feeling like himself, posting back-to-back 50+ FD point games. Paul sees an increase in usage by almost six percent without Harden, which is by far the highest on the Rockets when Harden is out, so it’s definitely a situation to monitor closely.
Getting Paul at this price point is a nice value in a good matchup tonight against a Hawks team that ranks 30th in defense against opposing point guards. He would need 42 FD points to hit 5x value, which he’s done in three of the past five games. I’ll be looking for Paul to capitalize on a good matchup tonight and potentially break the 50-point FD point barrier for a third straight game.
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine (CHI): $8,000 vs. MIL
LaVine gets a matchup tonight against a Bucks team that ranks 16th against opposing shooting guards and is the same team he just lit up for 27 points, five rebounds, and seven assists, resulting in 47.5 FD points on February 11. He’s also coming off of one of his best performances of the season Saturday night, posting a 42-point, six-rebound, and four-assist line against a tough Boston team. His 50+ FD-point upside is the reason why he’s on this list. It’s always good to include a couple guys at a decent cost that can provide that type of upside.
His floor is definitely safe, as he is the lead dog on a Bulls team that is looking to develop their young core. He’s scored at least 20 points in six of the past seven games and has recorded at least 30 FD points in eight of the past 10 games. He’s a low-risk/high-reward type of player that can certainly give your lineup some juice.
Justin Holiday (MEM): $3,700 vs. LAL
In a cap-saving type play, Holiday shows up in this list as a player who is projected to draw the start against the Lakers’ porous defense. With James Harden and Luka Doncic listed as questionable, if there is a position I’m looking to punt on tonight, it’ll be shooting guard. Holiday certainly has the upside to fill it up, however. His matchup alone is enough for me to take a risk on Holiday, who does carry 30+ FD point potential and last hit that mark on February 5. If you’re selecting Holiday in your lineup as a cap-saving move, make sure to verify that all your other rostered players in your lineup are good to go so you don’t waste your lowest dropped score on a player that’s not even playing.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant (GS): $10,000 @ CHA
“Playoff mode” LeBron James has apparently been activated. However, I’m more enamored with the consistent production and the high floor that Durant provides. While there’s no arguing James carries more upside, he has finished with less than 40 FD points in three of the past seven games, which is enough to sink your lineup given the high price for him. Durant is $2,000 cheaper than James tonight and has finished below the 40 FD point level just once in the past seven games, providing a more stable floor. Durant also gets the benefit of playing in a game with an implied total of 234 points (Warriors’ implied total is 121) meaning there will be plenty of points to go around.
Blowout potential doesn’t really impact Durant, as he is typically the one Warrior who is involved early and often and can get his production before the game gets out of reach. This is evidenced by the fact he is the team leader in usage rate. I’ll be using Durant with confidence tonight since he comes with a stable floor and still provides 60+ FD point upside, which is what I look for in my high priced players.
Nikola Mirotic (MIL): $5,700 @ CHI
It seems as though the stars may align for Mirotic tonight in a “revenge game” type narrative as Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful heading into tonight, which would open up more opportunity for Mirotic to get back at his old team. Mirotic did prove he’s a very dangerous scorer, netting 17 points in just 18 minutes of action against the Timberwolves Saturday night. While there’s still some unknown about his fit and role with his new team, he may be forced into more action tonight if their star player is held out as projected. Mirotic is an aggressive scorer who’s not shy about getting shots up and can still provide solid rebounding numbers. He’s certainly worth a long look on the slate tonight as an alternative option to the elite tier of other small forwards and could help save some salary room for some of the studs.
Power Forward
Tobias Harris (PHI): $7,400 @ NOR
I’ll be giving Harris a look tonight because of his matchup with the Pelicans, who rank 16th against the power forward position. Also, the game has a high implied total of 238, meaning there will be plenty of scoring to go around. Harris will need 37 FD points to get to 5x value, which he’s done in three of the past five games. With Joel Embiid out of the lineup, it should also open up even more opportunity for Harris as he continues to work on settling in with his new team.
This is a modest salary point for the type of player who carries double-double potential into each game. He’s scored at least 20 points in four of the past five games, which has led to finishing with at least 30 FD points in four of the past five as well. Look for Harris to be in the mix to lead the team in points in what should be a high-scoring game.
Kevin Love (CLE): $7,100 vs. POR
Love is still working his way back into form after returning from a lengthy injury. However, it’s hard to ignore his upside. He’s still the team leader in usage rate, and he gets a matchup with Portland, which ranks 19th against the power forward position. Love is also coming off a game where he torched Memphis for 32 points and 12 rebounds resulting in 49.4 FD points. He’s logged two straight double-doubles as well, proving that if he’s on the court, he’s going to produce.
Cleveland will need all the scoring help they can get tonight and will look to Love early and often to keep them in the game. While his salary may seem high for a player who would be playing in just his fourth game back from a lengthy absence, his production Saturday night is a reminder of what he’s capable of. Portland doesn’t offer much in the way of defense on the front line, so Love should definitely have some opportunity to capitalize and build on his streak of double-doubles as he is still a solid scorer and rebounder.
Center
Brook Lopez (MIL): $5,700 @ CHI
Lopez will get a matchup with his brother tonight in Chicago, which makes for an interesting storyline, but the fact remains that Chicago ranks 26th against opposing centers and Milwaukee is likely to be without their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Brook Lopez does bring a very solid floor of production into the game tonight, finishing with at least 25 FD points in six straight games. This trend should definitely continue tonight against a Bulls team that is struggling to defend anyone.
Lopez is coming off a 19-point, seven-rebound, and four-block game resulting in 42.9 FD points on Saturday night against Minnesota. That would be the type of upside he can bring, which is nice for a player at this modest salary. He’ll at least be a solid floor candidate to help stabilize your lineup, while providing enough upside that could push your lineup into the green.
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Chris Berg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @bergey13.