AAF Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 4

The AAF has been like a Russian Roulette of fantasy performances through three weeks of play. You just never quite know when a guy is going to come out of nowhere and go off. Three weeks of action start to give us a larger sample size, however, making it increasingly more possible to begin identifying trends. It also helps us gauge how defenses are really performing and which matchups are the best to exploit going forward.

With so much attention in AAF fantasy football revolving around DFS so far, this weekly waiver piece will be partly focused on season-long leagues but also will in tune to the upcoming week’s plays in Fanball’s DFS tournaments. We will start using the same methods of analyzing surprise performances from the prior week and using that to forecast future production in both season-long and DFS formats. Here’s a look at some players on the rise from last week who are worth keeping an eye on going forward.

*All stats sourced thanks to NoExtraPoints.com and Fanball for DFS.

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Quarterback

Zach Mettenberger (MEM)
The Memphis Express finally had enough of Christian Hackenberg’s poor play in Week 3 which led to an inspiring finish to what was another disappointing loss for the team. Former Tennessee Titans QB, Zach Mettenberger, breathed some life into this stoic offense as he led the team to 17 points in the second half. Mettenberger showed some big-play potential hitting WR Devin Lucien with a 30-yard TD in the third quarter. That was followed up by an even more impressive 40-yard TD in the fourth quarter to WR Gerrard Sheppard. Mettenberger capped off his game with a completed two-point conversion pass to RB Anthony Manzo-Lewis, finishing the game completing 9-of-12 pass attempts for 120 yards, two TDs, and no interceptions.

This looked like a completely different game in the second half as the Mettenberger-led Express outscored the high-powered Orlando Apollos offense 17-12 after halftime. The Apollos had been the consensus top-ranked team in most power rankings heading into Week 3 which makes Mettenberger’s second-half tear all the more impressive.

Mettenberger put up some fairly impressive numbers in college for LSU and even led the SEC in 2013 with 10.4 passing yards per attempt according to College Sports Reference. It also didn’t hurt matters that he had both Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to throw to. The NFL was another story for Mettenberger as he led the Titans to an 0-10 record as the starting QB between 2014-2015. He was waived by the Titans in 2016 and hopped around briefly to the Chargers and Steelers before falling out of the league altogether.

Granted, half of a football game is an incredibly small sample size to go off of right now, but it really only takes one quarter for any game to turn completely upside down, especially in this unpredictable AAF league thus far. Already named the starting quarterback for Week 4, Mettenberger is a top waiver add and an option in Week 4 DFS tournaments.

Matt Simms (ATL)
Simms is the classic case of a good fantasy play but an absolutely awful real-life QB. We have seen this before in the NFL with guys like Blake Bortles and Tim Tebow where you have to separate the real-life performance from the fantasy stats. Simms fills that Bortles mold pretty well as his garbage-time fueled Week 3 outing resulted in 328 passing yards, one TD, and three INTs. Simms also sadly led the Legends with 27 rushing yards. This was all good enough to finish with 21.8 fantasy points using Fanball’s scoring format as your Week 3 QB2 and overall top-five fantasy performer.

Now, full disclosure here, this is not completely a Matt Simms hype piece. He may very well lose his job to Aaron Murray before we get into Week 4 action. But, we just can’t ignore the stats he is putting up when analyzing a game of numbers like fantasy football. Simms isn’t a priority add by any means in season-long leagues, but he is worthy of a bench stash and should be owned in all leagues. In a league where we are seeing QBs struggle to hit the 200-yard passing mark each and every week, a guy with 300+ yard potential is a big factor. Aaron Murray is also a good insurance policy as a handcuff if you can afford the space. As far as Week 4 DFS goes, Simms is not attractive at his $5,900 price point on Fanball as the QB4 against an Arizona defense that hasn’t been very generous to QBs this season.

Running Back

Terrell Watson (SD)
While Ja’Quan Gardner continued to beast out in Week 3 with another performance over 100 yards, he has quietly had company right beside him the entire time. Terrell Watson has only seen two fewer touches than Gardner over the last two weeks. Though he hasn’t quite had the same level of success as Gardner, Watson still proved efficient in Week 3 carrying 13 times for 73 yards (5.6 YPA) while converting a pair of two-point attempts. This performance was good enough for 12.6 fantasy points making him your Week 3 RB4.

Watson saw the field more often than Gardner in Week 3 with roughly a 57% snap share. Though the raw stats don’t show it, this is a committee backfield and Gardner’s current streak of production is a bit unsustainable as he averaged 10.2 YPA in Week 3. With Watson mixing in frequently, it’s only a matter of time before he gets his fair share of goal-line looks. Already a proven asset with his RB4 finish last week, Watson deserves a spot on every season-long roster as a weekly Flex play at worst. Watson also makes an intriguing value play in Week 4 for DFS at only $4,900, a full $2,100 less than Gardner, as the SD Fleet get a juicy matchup against the Memphis Express who have given up the second-most fantasy points to RBs this season. The Express have given up five rushing TDs so far this season.

Trey Williams (SA)
After sitting out the first two weeks of the regular season, Trey Williams was ready to come back healthy and hungry in Week 3. Williams outplayed even the great Kenneth Farrow in his season debut leading the San Antonio Commanders with 75 rushing yards on only seven carries. His 10.7 YPA led all running backs in Week 3. Williams showed incredible burst dusting defenders for this long 30-yard gain:

Trey Williams runs for 30 yards pic.twitter.com/YhIqBltaiL

— Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL) February 25, 2019

Williams may be exactly what this team needs at the moment as Farrow continues to deal with injuries after his rough Week 2 outing.

Williams spent his college days at Texas A&M on the same Aggies squad that featured QB Johnny Manziel. Williams never quite carved out a feature role on the offense but was efficient with the carries he did receive averaging 6.6 YPA over his three years there. He then bounced around the NFL as a backup/practice squad member but only has two official carries to his name in regular season action.

Williams’ emergence is bad news for Kenneth Farrow’s fantasy stock, especially until he proves to be 100% healthy. We could see a much larger workload for Williams going forward. He’s a priority waiver add in season-long leagues and an enticing option at $4,100 in DFS this week against Birmingham.

Sherman Badie (MEM)
This was a classic blindsided breakout by Sherman Badie in Week 3 as he came off the couch to lead the Express with 59 rushing yards on only eight carries. Badie was just brought in mid-week to replace Rajion Neal. ESPN’s Louis Riddick was all over Badie reporting that he ran a 4.35 40-yard dash after being put through a full workout by the Express.

Badie provides a dual-threat skill set dating back to his days in college at Tulane where he was also a big asset on special teams as a kick returner. He is coming into this offense at a great time as the Express look to be slowly shaping into a more respectable offense with Zach Mettenberger taking over at QB. Badie did plenty to earn a spot as a committee member alongside Zac Stacy going forward, and the two backs could form a pretty stellar thunder/lightning combo. I would anticipate Badie flirting with double-digit touches going forward with big-play upside.

Wide Receiver

De’Mornay Pierson-El (SLC)
De’Mornay Pierson-El has climbed up the fantasy charts recently after finishing Week 3 with eight catches for 90 yards with one TD and one 2PT as the overall WR1. He has been trending up ever since the team placed WR Dres Anderson on IR after Week 1. The return of Josh Woodrum was a welcome sight for all SLC pass catchers as the team finally looked to have it all put together as they got their revenge against the Hotshots in a 23-15 victory.

Pierson-El’s 25 fantasy point outing in Week 3 has now boosted him into the overall WR5 spot on the season in AAF, right above Quinton Patton. NEP’s Anders Eagleson made an interesting point on Twitter that despite Pierson-El’s big game, he actually finished fourth amongst Stallions WRs in snaps. While that could be seen as a discouraging sign for his future outlook, it’s also impressive that he was able to make such an impact with fewer opportunities on the field. It also gives reason to believe that Woodrum is comfortable looking to Pierson-El as a primary read when he is on the field.

Pierson-El gets a great opportunity to repeat his performance this week against the Orlando Apollos who just gave up two big TDs to Memphis wideouts last week. The Stallions have a great shot at another big upset this week after their impressive defensive performance last week paired with an offense on the rise.

Nelson Spruce (SD)
Spruce was a player I mentioned just last week as a top waiver pickup, but he is worth noting again this week after he put up a 4/50/2 line against San Antonio. Spruce was Philip Nelson’s favorite target in Week 3 and has finally emerged as the San Diego wideout to own going forward. Spruce was the overall WR2 in Week 3 and is now sitting comfortably as the WR7 on the season, just two fantasy points behind De’Mornay Pierson-El in the top-five spot.

The SD Fleet have looked comfortable letting their running game handle a lot of the heavy lifting lately, though QB Philip Nelson is slowly trending up after finishing Week 3 with a season-best 193 passing yards with two TDs and one INT. Spruce looks to have a safe role as the go-to target here and should remain a mid-range WR1 each week.

Rannell Hall (ORL)
Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall have had their time to shine, but in Week 3 it was Rannell Hall’s turn. Hall led the Apollos catching four-of-six targets for 68 yards and one TD. Hall’s TD catch was a thing of beauty as Gilbert made a sensational throw while scrambling to hit Hall all alone in the end zone:

Not sure what’s better, this throw or this catch. ? Touchdown @aafapollos! #MEMvsORL pic.twitter.com/FFr5vnI6GT

— The Alliance (@TheAAF) February 24, 2019

Johnson and Marshall are going to continue to have their days, but with the way Garrett Gilbert has been playing and the way this offense has been moving as a whole, Hall is going to continue to make plays.

Devin Lucien (MEM)
With the Memphis offense showing the most improvement of any team in Week 3, there are plenty of players worth mentioning. Devin Lucien was the recipient of Zach Mettenberger’s first big TD of the day. Lucien wound up catching all three of his targets in Week 3 for 51 yards and the score.

After spending three years at UCLA, Lucien made the move to Arizona in his senior year where he put up 1,074 yards and eight TDs. It was enough for him to get noticed by the New England Patriots as they swooped up Lucien in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft. He never saw the field in the regular season for the Pats and bounced around practice squads for the Colts, Chiefs, Texans, and Bucs before again getting picked and cut up by the Patriots in 2018.

Now on the Express, Lucien has a great opportunity to showcase his talents and earn a shot at another chance in the NFL. While Reece Horn seems to remain the team’s defacto WR1, the switch at QB could also mean a lot of other changes around the way this offense is operating. Lucien is a name to watch going forward on a murky WR depth chart.

Tight End

The tight end position remains pretty atrocious for fantasy purposes in the AAF. Fanball’s salary cap based DFS doesn’t even require you to select a TE in your lineup which is great considering they’ve been a hard pass pretty much every week. If you’re playing in season-long leagues and absolutely need to make a move at the position, Memphis TE Brandon Barnes may be worth a look. He saw a season-high four catches on four targets for 24 yards in Week 3 and seems to be the only real receiving option at the position for the team. I would be higher on Barnes if most-or-all of his targets came with Mettenberger under center, but he saw an even distribution of targets between the two QBs on the day.

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