The NFL playoffs help kick off the new year and it all starts this Saturday, January 5 when the Colts head to Houston to take on the Texans (4:35 p.m. ET) for the afternoon game. In week four, the Texans walked away with an overtime road win by 3 points against the Colts. Then in week 14, the Colts returned the favor and won by 3 in Houston. It’s no surprise the Texans are favored by just one point.
Obviously, this is just one of the four games that will be played to determine the outlook of the playoffs, and each game has its own dynamics. To help provide more insight into the matchups, we reached out to the most accurate sports betting experts this season. Find out below who these top experts are the most confident in when it comes to picking against the spread and also over/under picks.
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View picks from the entire consensus for each Wild Card playoff game:
IND @ HOU (-1) | SEA @ DAL (-2) | LAC @ BAL (-3) | PHI @ CHI (-6.5)
Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?
“The Colts (+1) are still getting a point on the road, but are the better team in my opinion. They are rated as a top 10 offense and defense based on DVOA, while the Texans rank 21st on offense. This will be the third meeting this year between these two teams, with each team earning a road victory so far. Road teams in playoff games between division opponents are 11-6-1 against the spread since the 2003 season, 10-4-1 in the first two rounds according to Bet Labs.”
– Anthony Amico (RotoViz)
“The Colts (+1). Coming in as the underdogs, they have been the better and healthier team down the stretch. DeAndre Hopkins struggled in their last meeting, while TY Hilton seems to get up for games against the Texans. The road team has won both meetings this year, and I expect the pattern to continue.”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)
“The Colts (+1). I don’t see the Texans defense slowing down Andrew Luck, as well as T.Y. Hilton once again, and the Colts defense is one of the most underrated units in the playoffs.”
– Jamey Eisenberg (CBS Sports)
“The Ravens (-3) feature one of the best defenses in the league, and went into LA just two weeks ago and beat the Chargers handily 22-10. Now the Ravens get to host the Chargers at home which typically gives a 3 pt Vegas boost. I see the Ravens winning this game by at least a touchdown.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)
“The Ravens (-3) are the best bet, in part because the NFL was terribly unfair to the Chargers by making them travel across the country to play in the weekend’s only 1 p.m. game. It’s also hard to ignore how well Baltimore handled Los Angeles as a road team just two weeks ago, and the way in which Philip Rivers has cooled off of late, after hanging around the periphery of the MVP conversation for much of the season. It won’t help Rivers that Melvin Gordon is banged up, although getting back Hunter Henry could be quite the boon. The Ravens’ edge on special teams puts them over the top for me.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)
“Unlike last year, the Cowboys (-2) have been much better at home and that’s the difference in their season (7-1 this year, 3-5 last year). The Seahawks played from ahead in the first meeting the entire way and still only managed 3.2 yards per carry, while Ezekiel Elliott had no issues and the Cowboys ran for 8.7 yards per carry. It’s tough going against Russell Wilson, but Dallas has the better defense and should get enough offensively to win by at least a field goal.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire.com)
“The Houston Texans are the team I am most confident picking at -1. Home teams tend to win playoff games and cover even when they are getting 3 or more points. The public likes to back Andrew Luck which is a big reason of why this line is what it is. These two teams are very close in skill and with that, I will take the home team.”
– Davis Mattek (Fantasy Insiders)
“The Chicago Bears are laying the most points Wildcard Weekend and rightfully so. Not only are they one of the best teams playing Wildcard Weekend, but they’re one of the best in all of the playoffs. In fact, I put them right behind the Saints as the best team in the league. The Bears are a dominant 12-4 ATS (best record in the league) and 7-1 ATS at home. And they are laying less than a TD? Vegas once again is undermining Chicago’s dominance.”
– Bill Enright (FFChamps)
View full set of consensus picks Against the Spread here
Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?
PHI at CHI: 41 – Over
“In the eight games at Soldier Field this season, there has been an average of 45.6 points scored per game, 17.5 coming from the opposing team. Under Nick Foles, the Eagles have scored 28.7 points per game. We think of the stout Chicago defense, but many forget that they have a good offense. Mixed with the offense of the Eagles, we should be able to lock in the over.”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)
PHI at CHI: 41 – Under
“The Eagles were a mess for most of the season before going on another late season run to narrowly squeak in. Nick Foles will be entering this game with bruised ribs, which is bad news when facing the likes of Khalil Mack. I expect the Bears to hold the Eagles under 14 points, and this game to stay under the total of 41.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)
SEA at DAL: 43 – Under
“I like Seattle and Dallas to go under their current total of 43. Unders on Wild Card Weekend are hitting 61.7% of the time since 2003 according to Bet Labs, and these are two of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Seattle, in particular, is the only NFL team running the ball over 50 percent of the time, and over 60 percent of the time on first down. This feels like an old-school, grind-it-out playoff game.”
– Anthony Amico (RotoViz)
LAC at BAL: 42 – Under
“They just scored 32 total points when they met in Week 16, and the Ravens are going to slow this game down, limiting scoring chances for the Chargers, while not scoring many points themselves. In seven starts for Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have scored more than 26 points just once.
– Jamey Eisenberg (CBS Sports)
SEA at DAL: 43 – Over
“I’ll take the over in the Seahawks-Cowboys game. The betting has already moved it up to that number from 41.5, and I’m on board with the idea that there will be more scoring than Vegas initially projected. The Cowboys, like many teams, have a much more threatening offense at home, and I like Dak Prescott to rediscover his connection with Amari Cooper. The Seahawks should be able to run the ball on Dallas, and Russell Wilson is as good a candidate as any visiting QB to find a way to pierce the Cowboys’ talented defense for some big plays.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)
LAC at BAL: 42 – Over
“It’s hard to see the Chargers putting up the same dud they had in the first matchup and with a healthier Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen, I think they hit at least 20 points. I also think the Ravens should be able to run after going for 145 yards on 4.5 yards per carry and at least 20 points is possible for them, as well.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire.com)
SEA at DAL: 43 – Over
“For Seattle to win this game, they are probably going to have a pass a little bit more than they would like to and the same will go for Dallas. Both teams think of themselves as running teams but have good, athletic quarterbacks and are better suited to throwing the ball.”
– Davis Mattek (Fantasy Insiders)
IND at HOU: 48 – Under
“Colts/Texans is the highest point projection of the week and while one of their match-ups in 2018 did indeed hit the OVER by an easy margin (Week four 37-34) it was the ONLY matchup in their last nine meetings where one (let alone both) teams scored over 27 points. Five of their last seven games have hit the Under and this week’s 48 point projected total is tied for the second highest O/U for a game featuring these two AFC South rivals since 2010! Take the Under.”
– Bill Enright (FFChamps)
View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here
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Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.
