The NBA serves up a big 10-game slate on Friday night to start the weekend. Without any meaningful football this weekend (the Pro Bowl doesn’t count), a lot of DFS attention will turn to the hardwood. With a big slate, there are plenty of high-priced studs to choose from, led by James Harden. Has his salary ($13,800) gotten to the point where you can fade him, or is he still a lock? Find out my thoughts on Harden, as there is plenty of value to fit him in if you want.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last-five-games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $10,700 vs. CHA
That’s right. I’m fading Harden on Friday’s slate. Don’t get me wrong, he is still going to produce. But this could finally be the night where rostering Harden isn’t automatic because of his increasing salary. While there is enough value (see below) on the slate to fit him in, I will instead try to squeeze in two studs in the next salary level, starting with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has crushed the Hornets in two previous meetings, averaging 22.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists on his way to 59.1 DraftKings points per game. He should be well rested with the Bucks’ last game coming all the way back on Monday and he will be at home in a game with the slate’s highest Vegas total.
The NBA serves up a big 10-game slate on Friday night to start the weekend. Without any meaningful football this weekend (the Pro Bowl doesn’t count), a lot of DFS attention will turn to the hardwood. With a big slate, there are plenty of high-priced studs to choose from, led by James Harden. Has his salary ($13,800) gotten to the point where you can fade him, or is he still a lock? Find out my thoughts on Harden, as there is plenty of value to fit him in if you want.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last-five-games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $10,700 vs. CHA
That’s right. I’m fading Harden on Friday’s slate. Don’t get me wrong, he is still going to produce. But this could finally be the night where rostering Harden isn’t automatic because of his increasing salary. While there is enough value (see below) on the slate to fit him in, I will instead try to squeeze in two studs in the next salary level, starting with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has crushed the Hornets in two previous meetings, averaging 22.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists on his way to 59.1 DraftKings points per game. He should be well rested with the Bucks’ last game coming all the way back on Monday and he will be at home in a game with the slate’s highest Vegas total.
Core Plays
Kawhi Leonard (SF/PF – TOR): $9,500 @ HOU
There are a variety of options for the second higher-priced option. I also considered Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns but instead landed on Kawhi Leonard. He has missed the last four games, but early indications are he will return to the court on Friday against the Rockets. Following other multi-game absences this season, Leonard has typically jumped right back into the mix with 30-plus minutes and his usual production. He’ll return to a great game environment against the Rockets in a matchup that is expected to be close and high-scoring. Make sure he’s playing and not on any minutes restrictions before plugging him into lineups.
Kemba Walker (PG – CHA): $8,100 @ MIL
Kemba Walker has been consistently good this season and over his last six outings. He has reached at least 38 DK points in each of those games while scoring at least 21 points each night. Overall, he is averaging 25.5 points and 5.2 assists in those outings and gets a nice pace-up spot on Friday night. Walker has also been good against the Bucks this season, averaging 31.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists for 47.8 DK points per game in two previous matchups.
Trevor Ariza (SF/PF – WAS): $6,300 @ ORL
Trevor Ariza has stepped up for the Wizards in the absence of John Wall and Markieff Morris. He has topped 20 points in four of his last five games and exceeded 42 DK points in three of them. Ariza continues to play big minutes every night, which should hold true on Friday against the Magic in a game that is expected to be close.
Bobby Portis (PF/C – CHI): $5,700 vs. LAC
Bobby Portis has seen an increase in playing time with the thumb injury to Wendell Carter Jr. While those minutes fluctuate a little bit from game to game, he has maintained solid fantasy production by averaging 13.8 points and 8.0 rebounds over his last four outings. His minutes should approach 30 on Friday against the Clippers’ athletic front line. The matchup is excellent, as the Clippers have allowed big increases in production to opposing big men in points (+13.6%), rebounds (+11.6%), and assists (+7.3%).
Value Plays
Dragan Bender (PF/C – PHO): $4,600 @ DEN
Dragan Bender continues to play about 30 minutes a night for the Suns without DeAndre Ayton and Richaun Holmes. Assuming they both miss another game on Friday against the Nuggets, Bender should once again see significant minutes. Over the last three games, Bender has averaged 14.0 points and 7.7 rebounds. His salary is still very reasonable for his current level of playing time and production.
Tyler Johnson (PG/SG – MIA): $4,200 @ CLE
The Heat are expected to deploy the same starting lineup as the last game, in which Tyler Johnson drew the start and put up 15 points and five assists in 36 minutes against the Clippers. He will get a much easier matchup on Friday with the Heat traveling to Cleveland to face a Cavaliers squad that has allowed increased points (+14.7%), assists (+5.8%), and steals (+6.6%) to PGs this season.
Shabazz Napier (PG/SG – BRK): $3,600 vs. NY
With Spencer Dinwiddie suffering a finger injury in the last game, Shabazz Napier should benefit with more playing time at guard for the Nets. Napier has been good in spurts this season when given increased minutes. During a seven-game stretch from late December to early January when Napier played at least 22 minutes per game, he averaged 15.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. He also gets a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed increased production in points (+11.6%) and rebounds (+17.5%) to SGs.
Jerryd Bayless (PG/SG – MIN): $3,600 @ UTH
With injuries in the Timberwolves’ backcourt, Jerryd Bayless has played at least 28 minutes in each of the last two games while averaging 15.0 points and 7.5 assists. He could be in line for another big game with question marks surrounding Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose, and Tyus Jones’ availability for Friday’s matchup with the Jazz. With a minuscule salary and the potential for big minutes, Bayless could be a lock if at least two of those players are ruled out.
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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and Correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
