The Primer: Week 16 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 46.0
Line: LAR by 13.5

QBs
Jared Goff: There were a lot of people who were talking about Goff’s hangover from the Bears game in Week 14, but did they all forget about his Week 13 performance against the Lions? He’s been a different player since the bye week. Look at the numbers below.

Yes, the Bears were a tough matchup, but the Lions and Eagles have been stomping grounds for plenty of quarterbacks this year. We knew it would hurt to lose Cooper Kupp, but this is something different. The Cardinals aren’t the greatest of opponents for him, either, as they’ve allowed just one quarterback (Matt Ryan last week) to post better than QB10 numbers against them, which includes Goff back when he was playing well. In their Week 2 matchup, he threw for 354 yards, one touchdown, and one interception that game, finishing as the QB12. You’d have to go back to Week 5 to find the last time they allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 259 yards against them. Part of the reason is because teams don’t need to throw a ton, as they face an average of just 32.9 pass attempts per game. There have been just two quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball more than 36 times, so Goff would need to be extremely efficient if the limited attempts hold true. Suddenly, it looks risky to trust Goff as anything more than a high-end QB2 for this road game that’s in-division, which are typically tougher than most expect. Would it shock me if he comes out and throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns? Not really, but when we try to predict the unpredictable, we have to look at trends. This trend says Goff would be lucky to finish as a top-12 quarterback this week.

Josh Rosen: Guys, he was benched for Mike “The Giraffe” Glennon last week. On top of that, the Rams defense has been extremely different with Aqib Talib on the field, as they’ve allowed just 207.3 passing yards per game with just four touchdowns in six games with him on the field. You aren’t considering Rosen.

RBs
Todd Gurley, John Kelly, and C.J. Anderson: This is a fluid situation and one that cannot fully be updated until we have clarity on Gurley’s status. They’re saying he has inflammation in his knee, which tells me that he’s not going to play. It also doesn’t help you feel any more confident when they signed Anderson as a safety net. The Cardinals are a team you want to play running backs against, as they’ve allowed the most attempts (384), yards (1,804), and touchdowns (17) on the ground this year. After Tevin Coleman tore them up for 145 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries last week, they’ve now allowed 13 top-24 performances to running backs this year, including eight of them with top-12 performances. With Goff struggling to do much of anything and this being a must-win game for them to retain control of home-field advantage, we should expect them to pound the ball against a team who faces an average of 32.5 touches per game to running backs. If Gurley misses this game, Kelly should be played as a low-end RB1. It’s hard to say Anderson would have a massive impact, but if active, he would have some upside RB4 appeal. Update: Gurley has not practiced all week but will reportedly do a pre-game workout to see if he can go. While it’s seemingly a long-shot that he plays, the question becomes which running back will receive the most touches if he’s out. With how much the running back is involved in the passing-game in McVay’s offense, it’s hard to say Anderson would be able to walk in and simply carry the workload that some are suggesting. It’d likely be a timeshare of sorts with Kelly playing more than Anderson, though nobody can say for sure. If Gurley is ruled out, Kelly should be considered a semi-risky RB2 with massive upside. Anderson would be playable as an RB3/4 as well, but his upside would be limited to due lack of work in the passing-game. 

David Johnson: He totaled 68 yards through the air last week, which was his second-highest total of the year, but to know that he caught just three passes against the Falcons is a fireable offense. The offense is imploding and seemingly getting worse by the week. The Rams haven’t allowed much through the air, but have allowed a robust 4.82 yards per carry, which ranks sixth-highest in the league. They’ve now allowed six of the last seven teams to rush for at least 100 yards against them. They’ve also allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the year, including three to the Eagles last week. With the Rams offense struggling to rack-up points, it’s allowed five of the last six teams to total 24 or more carries among the running backs, so the volume may be better than expected. After totaling just 11 carries last week and playing for an offense that hasn’t scored more than 21 points since Week 5, Johnson is nothing more than a middling RB2, though it’s not a terrible matchup.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: The struggles of Goff have bled down to Cooks, who has now totaled just 62, 22, and 59 yards in the last three games and he hasn’t scored since back in Week 9. The Cardinals cornerbacks have allowed just five perimeter wide receivers to post top-20 numbers against them, though Cooks was one of them back in Week 2 when he posted 7/159/0 on nine targets. You don’t really know how the Cardinals will handle him in coverage now that Cooper Kupp is out. Back in Week 2, they had to worry about both Cooks and Woods on the perimeter, so it was impossible to shadow Cooks, but now that Reynolds is playing on the perimeter with Woods in the slot, they could choose to have Patrick Peterson shadow him, which would be very bad. Peterson just allowed the third touchdown in his coverage last week, though there wasn’t much he could’ve done about it, as Julio Jones got about half of a yard of separation and the ball was thrown in a perfect place where there was nothing Peterson could do. There are a lot of uncertainties about Goff and whether Peterson will shadow Cooks, making him a risky WR2 this week, even though he performed well against this team earlier in the year.

Robert Woods: He’s got the best matchup on the field this week, as he’ll be defended by Budda Baker, the converted safety who’s playing out of position (as he has all year). He’s allowed 46-of-57 passing for 479 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage and will be going against Woods, who hasn’t recorded less than four catches and 61 yards in each of his last 13 games. Since Kupp’s injury, he’s totaled 41 targets in four games and has turned them into 23 receptions for 274 yards and two touchdowns despite Goff’s struggles. Of the top seven performances the Cardinals have allowed to wide receivers this year, four of them were to slot-heavy receivers. Woods hasn’t hit 100 yards since back in Week 6, but this matchup could get him back in that category. He’s a low-end WR1 who’s safe enough for cash lineups.

Josh Reynolds: For whatever reason, Goff decided to target Reynolds 12 times last week, and while he was able to post 70 yards, Goff has now completed just 10-of-24 targets to Reynolds over the last three weeks and has been intercepted four times when targeting him. If someone were to tell Goff to stop throwing his way, he’d be a lot better off. If the Cardinals decide to not use Patrick Peterson in shadow coverage on Cooks, we’d see Reynolds against Peterson most of the day, which is obviously terrible news. If they do shadow Cooks, we’d see Brandon Williams on Reynolds. He’s a former third-round pick from 2016 who’s seen very limited playing time. He played well last week in his first start, allowing just 2-of-5 passing for 15 yards against the Falcons. There’s risk of Peterson being on him, there’s risk of Goff continuing his struggles, and there’s risk that Williams may actually be decent. Reynolds is nothing more than a WR4/5 option this week.

Larry Fitzgerald: If there’s one thing we can guarantee with Fitzgerald, it’s that he’ll see plenty of targets with Christian Kirk out of the lineup. He’s totaled 17 targets the last two weeks, turning in a respectable 12/137/0 line in the two games, though they were relatively easy matchups. The Rams have Aqib Talib back, which has changed the entire look of their defense. In the six games with him in the lineup, they’ve allowed just 207.3 passing yards per game with just four touchdowns in those six games combined. Needless to say, it’s going to be tough for Fitzgerald to find the end zone this week. He was limited to just 3/28/0 on five targets in the first matchup back in Week 2, though that was without Josh Rosen. It’s hard to say Rosen improves much of anything, but when you know a receiver is locked-in for eight targets, he shouldn’t drop out of the WR3 conversation, especially in PPR formats.

TEs
Gerald Everett: After failing to eclipse 24 snaps through the first 12 games, Everett has now played 36 and 34 snaps the last two weeks. It’s led to targets, too, as he’s seen seven targets in each game. Unfortunately, he’s gotten them when Goff’s been at his worst. Still, he’s been able to tope 45 yards in three of his last six games, which makes him a worthy streamer in good matchups. The Cardinals haven’t been a matchup to attack with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just 38.1 yards per game to them, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the league. They’ve also allowed just one tight end touchdown since Week 2, so it’s not a matchup to target for upside. We have seen seven different tight ends total at least four catches and 37 yards, so they aren’t bulletproof or anything. Everett should be considered a middling TE2 who’s seeing an increased role in a bad matchup.

Ricky Seals-Jones: The only tight ends who’ve run more routes than him over the last two weeks are Travis Kelce and Jared Cook. He’s also seen a respectable 13 targets. Unfortunately, there were 30 tight ends who’ve scored more fantasy points than him in that time. Being tied to Rosen for fantasy production isn’t going to end well right now, especially against a Rams team that just held Zach Ertz to 3/22/0 on seven targets. If someone starts Seals-Jones and gets production, just applaud them for attempting suicide but surviving.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Total: 53.5
Line: NO by 5.5

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Of course we get Road-Roethlisberger in the biggest game of the fantasy season. For those who aren’t aware, Roethlisberger has struggled mightily on the road over the last six years. Here’s a chart to show the crazy difference.

They say that if you can’t explain a reason for something that it’s random. Well, over a six-year sample size, it’s fair to say that there’s a reason, though we don’t know what it is. Whatever it is, it’s clearly limited his production on the road, but playing inside a dome could be a bit different. He’s played in a dome nine times and in those games, he’s completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Saints defense has played much better over the last six weeks, though they’ve still allowed both Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston to post top-12 fantasy numbers with multiple touchdown passes. When you break down where fantasy production comes from, the Saints have allowed 68.6 percent of their production to passing-games while just 31.4 percent goes to run-games. That’s the most lopsided percentage in the league, as the closest team (Texans) is at 61.7 percent to the passing-game. Not just that, but of the PPR production allowed in the passing game, the Saints allow 67.5 percent of it to wide receivers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Knowing that the Steelers are a WR-heavy producing team, this matchup bodes well for Roethlisberger. You have to be concerned about the whole road splits, but outside of a couple quarterbacks, who doesn’t come with risk? Roethlisberger should be played as an upside QB1 this week.

Drew Brees: It’s tough to say what’s happened with Brees the last three weeks, as he’s thrown just two touchdowns in that time, while failing to top 203 yards through the air in four straight games. We knew the Saints would eventually get back on track with their defense and run the ball, but we didn’t think they’d lose efficiency on all phases. Losing left tackle Terron Armstead has something to do with it, though he may be back for this contest. While the Saints have locked up the division, but one more win and they guarantee themselves home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Steelers have not allowed more than two passing touchdowns since back in Week 3, though they’ve allowed two of them in 7-of-11 games. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the combination of Case Keenum, Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Tom Brady average 8.2 yards per attempt, with each of the last three quarterbacks completing at least 25 passes. There’s been five games this year where Brees has completed 25 passes, and in those games, he posted these fantasy totals: 31.6, 17.6, 40.5, 26.7, and 31.4. If the Steelers can’t get pressure, they’re in trouble, which is why it’s big for Armstead to play this week. Returning home where Brees is a different quarterback, it’s not advisable to sit him in this projected shootout.

RBs
James Conner and Jaylen Samuels: We most likely won’t know if Conner is going to play until Sunday, which is an issue because he’s playing in the afternoon and that leaves limited options behind him on your bench. You should know that it’s not a good matchup for him, though. On top of his re-injury risk, the Saints have allowed an NFL-low 53.0 rushing yards per game to running backs. The closest team on the year is the Texans who have allowed 182 more yards than the Saints have. It’s not just a volume thing, either, as their 3.23 yards per carry also ranks as the best in the NFL. Despite playing against Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, and Christian McCaffrey, they’ve yet to allow a running back rush for more than 76 yards. It’s possible that Samuels skill-set better suits this matchup, as they’ve been a bit more giving to running backs through the air. We’ve seen six different running backs accumulate at least five receptions and five running backs amass more than 40 yards through the air. As mentioned in the Roethlisberger notes, the Saints have allowed 68.6 percent of their production to passing-games while just 31.4 percent goes to run-games. That’s the most lopsided percentage in the league, as the closest team (Texans) is at 61.7 percent to the passing-game and 38.3 percent to run-games. Even if Conner suits up, he’s a risky low-end RB2 who’s likely to split more time than usual. His presence would knock down the appeal of Samuels, though he’d still be in the RB3 conversation. If Conner misses another game, Samuels should be played as a rock-solid RB2. Update: Conner has been ruled out for this game. 

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: The dynamic duo hasn’t been quite the same over the last four weeks, as they’ve combined for just two total touchdowns in that time. The Saints offense as a whole hasn’t looked quite in-sync, though it should help to get left tackle Terron Armstead back, as he’s expected to play this week. The timeshare is real between the two (Kamara 51 carries, Ingram 43 carries), though Kamara has the more valuable role with nearly three times the pass-game work. The Steelers did have a dominant run-defense earlier in the year, as they allowed just 3.41 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns over the first five games but have since allowed 4.25 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns in the last nine games. They’ve allowed one rushing touchdown in eight of the last 10 games but haven’t allowed multiple rushing scores in any game this season. They have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to running backs on the season but haven’t played many of the better pass-catching backs. Christian McCaffrey was the notable one and he was able to haul in five passes for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Kamara is the better play of the two (as usual) and knowing it’s unlikely we see both finish as top-12 options, it makes Ingram a middling RB2 who is more reliant on touchdowns.

WRs
Antonio Brown: As expected, he was able to produce while covered by Stephon Gilmore, though he was targeted just seven times for the second straight week. Knowing that he’d seen 13 targets in each of the three prior games, you shouldn’t be too concerned. The Saints have an interesting situation on their hands, as Marshon Lattimore typically covers the No. 1 receiver, but if you leave Smith-Schuster with Eli Apple and P.J. Williams, you’re likely to be sorry. They may choose to play sides this week, but whatever the case, it shouldn’t scare you off Brown. Lattimore is good but he’s no Darrelle Revis. In fact, 12 of the last 14 targets to come his way have been caught for 148 yards. On the season, he’s allowed a 98.0 QB Rating in his coverage, which is much higher than the 51.2 it was last year. Brown should be in lineups as a WR1, though you don’t need to pay up for him in DFS cash games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: If the Saints decide to stick Marshon Lattimore on Brown, Smith-Schuster can have a field-day with the combination of Eli Apple and P.J. Williams. They’ve combined to allow 87-of-131 passing for 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns. Of the production the Saints allow to opposing passing games, wide receivers get a ridiculous 67.5 percent of it, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Smith-Schuster continues to benefit from Brown’s presence and he should be played as a low-end WR1 this week who should come with a solid floor as well.

Michael Thomas: The Steelers have asked a lot of Joe Haden this year and he’s done a phenomenal job, including winning AFC Defensive Player of the Week against the Patriots. In his coverage, he’s allowed just a 60.2 percent catch-rate, 10.1 yards per reception, and three touchdowns on 83 targets. It’s a matchup that limited the production of some top names like Julio Jones (5/62/0), A.J. Green (7/85/0), and Josh Gordon (1/19/0), which leaves us in a tough spot with Thomas. You’re going to play him as a WR1 because this game could net 60-plus points, but also because he goes into the slot nearly 30 percent of the time, and Haden doesn’t travel there. When in the slot, Thomas is targeted a league-high 31.2 percent of the time. We saw Julian Edelman rack-up 7/90/0 against the Steelers last week. If the Saints gameplan correctly, Thomas will be in the slot more often than he usually is. You don’t need to play him in DFS cash lineups but he’s definitely worth a shot in some tournaments.

Tre’Quan Smith: If the Steelers do sell-out to slow down Thomas, we could see Smith have another big game. He’ll see Coty Sensabaugh most of the game, who I’d consider to be a below-average NFL cornerback. He’s been tossed around by multiple teams the last few years but has seemingly found a home in Pittsburgh. He’s allowed just a 57 percent catch-rate in his coverage during his two years with them, but he’s also allowed seven touchdowns on 70 targets in coverage. Smith never stopped being a full-time player in this offense, even if his target numbers have been down. What I will say is that there’s not a WR4/5-type option who’s available in most leagues and offers as much upside as he does. He’s a sneaky tournament play this week.

Keith Kirkwood: He’s seemingly capped at 2-3 targets per game, but I wanted to mention him here because the slot has been used and abused against the Steelers over the last month, as they’ve allowed Julian Edelman 7/90/0, Seth Roberts 5/76/0, Keenan Allen 14/148/1, and Emmanuel Sanders 7/86/1 over the last four weeks. Kirkwood isn’t someone you can play confidently in season-long leagues, but this is some info I thought DFS players should have.

TEs
Vance McDonald: He’s totaled just seven targets over the last two weeks and hasn’t topped 47 yards since way back in Week 6, so McDonald is the type of player you look to when he’s in a great matchup. Unfortunately, this isn’t it. The Saints have allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends this year, as they’ve dominated across the board. They’ve still yet to allow more than 54 yards to any tight end, and outside of the odd-ball two-touchdown game for Cameron Brate where he caught two passes for 12 yards, they haven’t allowed a top-12 performance. Can McDonald score a touchdown and get into the top-12? Sure, but you shouldn’t be counting on it. He’s nothing more than a middling TE2 this week.

Dan Arnold: I’m convinced the Saints have no real goal to get their tight ends the ball on a consistent basis. Arnold saw just two targets last week after being a healthy scratch in Week 14. Watson hasn’t recorded more than three targets or 28 yards since Week 9. Josh Hill is a career backup who sees 20-30 targets per year. And now, we have Erik Swoope who was signed prior to last week’s game. This is a mess that you don’t want to tie yourself to, even in a plus-matchup against the Steelers who have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to tight ends.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 53.5
Line: KC by 2.5

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: We have two games left and Mahomes needs 10 passing touchdowns to tie the all-time record by Peyton Manning. The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than two touchdown passes since way back in Week 1, though they have allowed three of the last six quarterbacks they’ve played to throw for at least 318 yards against them. Over their last eight games, quarterbacks have posted a rather-high 8.5 yards per attempt with a 14:3 touchdown to interception ratio, so you’d hardly say it’s a brutal matchup. In that time, they’ve allowed 6-of-8 quarterbacks total at least 17.1 fantasy points, though it’s worth noting that those who didn’t were the last two games against Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullens. This game will be on primetime in Seattle, you have to assume the crowd noise is going to be quite loud, as it was for the Vikings game when they essentially shut them out (allowed a garbage time touchdown). Even in two brutal matchups the last two weeks (Ravens, Chargers), we saw Mahomes post 20.1 and 18.0 fantasy points. You aren’t even considering another quarterback if he’s on your roster.

Russell Wilson: Do we finally have a game where Wilson will be unleashed? The Chiefs defense has started to fall apart over the last month as they’ve allowed 11 passing touchdowns over the last four games, as well as multiple 300-yard passers. On top of that, they may be without their best cornerback (Kendall Fuller) for this game. Due to the explosiveness of the Chiefs offense, we’ve seen their opponents average 40.7 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the second-most in the league. There’s been just one quarterback who’s thrown the ball less than 30 times against the Chiefs, and we’ve seen four 400-yard passers against them this year. They’ve also allowed a league-high four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, which is just an added bonus for Wilson at this point, as we don’t rely on his rushing totals as much. Wilson hasn’t thrown less than two touchdowns in a game where he’s thrown at least 30 pass attempts, so the low-end QB1 floor is intact, and the high-end QB1 ceiling is well within reach.

RBs
Spencer Ware (doubtful) and Damien Williams: We don’t know Ware’s status right now, though hamstring injuries tend to be multiple week injuries. The fact that this game is on Sunday night makes it even tougher to rely on him, as he could be a last-minute scratch. The Seahawks have struggled as a run-defense over their last seven games, as they’ve allowed 5.21 yards per carry during that span, though they’ve held tough on the goal-line, as they’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns in that time, including none in the last three games. The good news for Williams is that they’ve allowed a massive 822 yards through the air to running backs, which is the fourth-most in the league, and that’s despite the Seahawks opponents averaging just 59.4 plays per game, which is an NFL-low. Williams has now totaled 28 touches over the last two weeks, so his role should be safe regardless of Ware’s status, but if Ware were held out, he should be played as a rock-solid RB2. If Ware does play, Williams should be considered a high-end RB3 while Ware himself would be a middling RB3 due to the risk of re-injury. Update: Ware has been listed as doubtful, which almost certainly means he’s going to miss this game. 

Chris Carson and Mike Davis: It’s good to see Carson on the field, as he’s been a monster this year and deserves the 22 carries he’s received in each of the last two games. Even better was his season-high six targets last week, as the Chiefs have struggled to contain running backs catching passes out of the backfield. On the year, they’ve allowed 13 different running backs finish with at least 15.0 PPR points, which is typically good enough to get into high-end RB2 territory. The 5.06 yards per carry they allow (league-high) should mesh well with the 32.6 rushing attempts the Seahawks average per week. It appears Rashaad Penny will miss another game, which means Davis will back-up Carson and be mixed-in on passing-downs, but it’s one less player we have to worry about in the timeshare. There’s been one game this entire season where the Chiefs haven’t allowed a top-24 running back performance, so you not only get the ceiling with Carson, but you also get the floor. He’s locked-in as a solid RB1 this week while Davis can be played as a high-end RB4.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: You have to think Hill was playing through a heel injury last week after just four days rest from their previous game where he was limping around. Fortunately, he will have had 10 days rest in-between the games this week to heal up. The Seahawks secondary has been bleeding fantasy points over the last two months, as they’ve allowed five 100-yard wide receivers since their bye in Week 7. We’ve seen them allow rookie receiver Dante Pettis 10/212/2 over two games on just 12 targets, while both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs were both able to eclipse 70 yards with less than eight targets apiece. He’s going to see a mixture of all three cornerbacks the Seahawks have to offer, though he’s been traveling into the slot a lot more with Sammy Watkins out of the lineup. The Seahawks have allowed just one slot touchdown all year and Justin Coleman has been their best cornerback in-coverage this year, but his 4.53-second speed is a major problem while trying to cover Hill. Play Hill as a WR1 and expect results, as he’s now seen 41 targets in the last four games without Watkins.

Chris Conley: Despite the extraordinary play from Mahomes and injuries to Watkins, we’ve seen Conley eclipse 25 yards just once all season. That’s an issue when plugging him into lineups, as you’re essentially saying you’re okay with touchdown-or-bust. He’s going to match-up with Shaquill Griffin in-coverage most of the time, who was supposed to be their new version of Richard Sherman, though he’s failed to live up to expectations. He’s allowed a 68.2 percent catch-rate for 13.5 yards per reception, though the three touchdowns on 66 targets is what’s key here. Conley is a starting wide receiver for Mahomes, so you don’t want to completely forget about him for DFS purposes, but he cannot be trusted in season-long leagues as anything more than an upside WR5.

Tyler Lockett: If there’s a Seahawks player who couldn’t wait for a game like this where Wilson should throw the ball 35-plus times, it’s Lockett. Sure, he’s been a producer all year, but it’s possible he could’ve had a much bigger year if he was actually targeted more often. He’s seen more than six targets just once all season, and in that game, he had seven. For a guy who’s averaging 12.5 yards per target and a touchdown every 7.0 targets, you’d think throwing the ball his direction may be a good thing, no? Fortunately, the Chiefs face an average of 24.2 wide receiver targets per game, which is the most in the NFL. Even if Wilson evenly distributed those, we’re talking about eight targets for Lockett? That’d be nice. The Chiefs will have Orlando Scandrick on him for most of the game, who had played well through the start of the season, but has faltered as of late, allowing 16-of-27 passing for 177 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. Lockett needs to be in lineups as a low-end WR2 who should see a season-high in targets.

David Moore: After catching just one pass over the last three weeks combined, it’s easy to forget about Moore. The truth is that the Seahawks have targeted their wide receivers just 34 times over the last three weeks combined, so there hasn’t been much production to go around. Against the Chiefs, that won’t remain the case, as they’ve seen an average of 24.2 wide receiver targets per game. The downside is that he may have the toughest matchup with Steven Nelson, who’s played much better this year, though he’s allowed touchdowns in his coverage in each of the last three games after allowing just one in the first 11 games. With more targets to go around, Moore should be on the fantasy radar as a WR5, though it’s tough to trust him.

Doug Baldwin: Returning from his hip injury that cost him Week 14, Baldwin had his best game of the season, catching four passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. It was a great matchup and we talked about it here last week, though there was always going to be risk playing someone with that injury. He may catch a break this week, as the Chiefs may be without Kendall Fuller, who had to have surgery on his hand after their Week 15 loss to the Chargers. They’re saying there’s a chance he plays, but you’d likely expect the Seahawks to take advantage in 50/50 balls in his coverage if he does play. There have been nine slot-heavy receivers who’ve totaled at least 50 yards against the Chiefs even with Fuller on the field, so it’s not a bad matchup regardless. Knowing there’s likely more volume to go around, Baldwin should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.

TEs
Travis Kelce: After a mediocre performance in Week 15, Kelce returns to a tough matchup in Week 16 against the Seahawks. Prior to Garrett Celek catching two passes for 61 yards and a touchdown last week, the absolute best performance they’d allowed this season belongs to George Kittle who posted six catches for 70 yards and no touchdown. Removing backups (Celek), that’s the best PPR performance they’ve allowed to a tight end all year. Outside of 49ers tight ends, they haven’t allowed a tight end more than 54 yards this year. Outside of Kittle twice, they’ve played just two other top-12 tight ends (Jared Cook, Trey Burton), so it’s not as if they’ve had a tough schedule. Look, you’re playing Kelce in season-long leagues, but be aware of the matchup when putting DFS lineups together. He’s always in play for tournaments but is best avoided in cash.

Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson: Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Dickson run more routes (30 to 19) than Vannett, so it’s an ugly timeshare. Over the last five games, Vannett has seen seven targets while Dickson has six of them, so we’re talking about a combined 2.6 targets per game. We’re expecting Wilson to throw the ball a lot more in this game, but even looking at the season as a whole, Wilson has targeted tight ends 63 times on 377 pass attempts, which comes out to a 16.7 percent target share. Splitting that between two players is ugly, as you’re talking about three targets apiece even if Wilson throws the ball 35 times. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends this year, though they did get Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry back last week, which makes the matchup a bit tougher. It’s best to avoid this timeshare, even in a plus-matchup, as production would be an outlier at this point.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Total: 44.5
Line: DEN by 2.5

QBs
Case Keenum: Many will be looking for a last-ditch option at quarterback and think that the Raiders are a weak enough opponent to stream him against. You may want to reconsider that thought, as Keenum has had plus-matchups the last three weeks and averaged just 198.0 yards against the Bengals, 49ers, and Browns weak pass-defenses. He threw just two touchdowns in those matchups, while being intercepted three times against those opponents. It’s true that the Raiders are not very good, but those last three matchups don’t inspire confidence in Keenum. One interesting fact I found while researching this game is that the Raiders have 12 sacks on the season. There are 11 individual players who have more sacks on the season. Imagine trading away Khalil Mack… and Amari Cooper… I feel for the Raiders fans, I really do. Here’s the odd part – Keenum hasn’t even been a much different passer while kept clean in the pocket, as he’s produced just a 96.3 QB Rating in those situations, which ranks 23rd of the 30 qualifying quarterbacks who’ve played half their team’s snaps. Jeff Driskel was the first one (last week) to finish with less than 13.4 fantasy points against them, though Keenum was close in their first matchup when he threw for 222 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. Fortunately, he saved his day with a rushing touchdown. Don’t start Keenum this week.

Derek Carr: The Broncos defense isn’t the same as it used to be in the secondary, but if there’s one thing we know, it’s that Carr’s is going to be under pressure. The Broncos have sacked opponents 42 times, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league. Meanwhile, Carr has been among the league’s worst quarterbacks when pressured, as he’s completed just 50.4 percent of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and six interceptions on 119 attempts. He’s been sacked 47 times this year, including 36 times in his last nine games (4.0 times per game). We can’t ignore the fact that the Broncos have allowed 8.2 yards per attempt over their last seven games, but it’s hard to trust a quarterback who’s finished with 13 fantasy points or less in 8-of-14 games. Carr is a mixed-bag and you never know what you’re going to get with him, but the pressure of the Broncos front-seven is enough to steer you clear of the matchup.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: After setting the fantasy world on fire from Weeks 7-13 where he was the No. 6 running back during that time, Lindsay has managed just 54 yards on 18 carries the last two weeks, though he did find the end zone to salvage his fantasy day against the 49ers. With Keenum struggling to do anything, teams are able to hone in on the run-game, though Lindsay oddly sees eight-man fronts just 13.2 percent of the time, which ranks seventh-fewest among running backs with at least 100 touches. The Raiders have been a team to run the ball against, as they’ve allowed 10-of-14 teams rush for at least 112 yards against them with running backs alone. Keep in mind that the Saints have still yet to allow a team of running backs to rush for more than 78 yards against them. There have been nine teams who’ve been able to rack-up at least 25 carries against the Raiders, which should amount to an ultra-high floor for Lindsay. The last time these teams played, Lindsay rushed for 107 yards on 14 carries, though he didn’t find the end zone (Freeman did). We saw Joe Mixon tag this defense for a career-high 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week behind a leaky offensive line. Lindsay should be in lineups as an RB1 who should get back on track. We could even see Freeman get towards the double-digit carry mark in this game, as he did against the Bengals three weeks ago, putting him on the RB4 radar with a better chance to score than most in that range, though he’s not involved in the passing-game which lowers his floor.

Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: After getting 34 carries for Martin against the Steelers and Chiefs, we get nine carries against the Bengals? Really? Sigh. The Raiders didn’t run the ball much at all that game, so it wasn’t just Martin, but it’s frustrating to say the least. Now to go against the Broncos who’ve allowed just two of the last eight opponents to rush for 100 yards against them. Still, we’ve seen each of the last five starting running backs to play them rush for at least 53 yards, so there should be a decent RB3 floor here for Martin, though it’s also important to note that just one of them finished better than the RB27 and that was Melvin Gordon who caught six passes for 87 yards. The Broncos have not allowed a rushing touchdown since back in Week 6, which was to Todd Gurley. Think of Martin the way you thought of Frank Gore. He’s likely going to finish with 50-70 yards with a very small chance to score, making him just an unappealing RB3. Richard has touched the ball just 30 times over the last four games, which amounts to just over seven touches per game. Against the Broncos, that’s not going to cut it. He’s nothing more than a last-ditch RB4/5 option.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: With Emmanuel Sanders out of the picture, here’s the target distribution over the last two weeks: Hamilton 21, Patrick 18, Sutton 12. Despite losing both Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, Sutton never walked into the highest targeted role. In fact, both Patrick and Hamilton have more targets in a single game than his season high, which stands at seven targets. He’ll see Gareon Conley in coverage, last year’s first-round pick who has been solid this year but has struggled the last two weeks, allowing a touchdown in each game, after allowing just one the first 12 games. Most don’t realize, but the Raiders have allowed just the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, as they’ve allowed very few receptions and yardage, but they have allowed 20 touchdowns to wide receivers, which is the second-most in the league. This matchup suits Sutton well, as he’s not the yardage guy right now, but rather one who’s the go-up-and-get-it receiver. He should be considered a high-end WR4 this week.

DaeSean Hamilton: He now has 21 targets in his two NFL starts and he’s turned them into 14/93/1, so there’s no reason the targets stop coming. It’s worth noting that Keenum threw the ball a massive 48 times last week, something that’s not going to happen this week. But if one thing’s clear, it’s that Keenum loves the slot receiver position, as he’s gone from Adam Thielen to Emmanuel Sanders to Hamilton. The Raiders have somewhat of a rotation at slot cornerback as they’re using safety Marcus Gilchrist there at times, while using rookie cornerback Nick Nelson at others. The issue is that the Raiders face an average of just 17.7 wide receiver targets per game, which is why they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest yards to them. They’ve allowed 20 wide receiver touchdowns, which ranks as the second-most, but that’s not what we rely on with Hamilton. He should be considered a middling WR4 this week.

Jordy Nelson: Suddenly, Nelson has reappeared on the fantasy radar, now totaling at least six receptions in each of his last three games with at least 88 yards in two of them. The Broncos secondary has been struggling as of late, as they’ve lost Chris Harris Jr. and now have Isaac Yiadom dealing with a shoulder injury. That leaves them with Tramaine Brock and Bradley Roby on the perimeter and safety Justin Simmons covering the slot. Nelson plays all three positions almost evenly, so he won’t see one more than the others. The Broncos have allowed at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in every game since Week 6, so when you combine that with the fact that Nelson has seen nine more targets than any other Raiders wide receiver over the last three weeks, and he should have the best chance. He hasn’t scored from Week 5 himself, so it’s far from a guarantee. With his recent rise in targets, he should be considered a decent WR4 play.

TEs
Matt LaCosse: After being an afterthought in the offense for his first few starts, we saw LaCosse take a step forward in Week 15 when he saw a season-high six targets that netted 4/43/0 against the Browns. While that appears fine and dandy for his streaming prospects, you must remember that Keenum threw the ball 48 times, something that doesn’t happen, like ever. That 12.5 percent target share would net just 3-4 targets on his usual 30 attempts. The matchup this week doesn’t get any better, as the Raiders are the worst team in the league at defending tight ends. They’ve allowed 14.5 yards per reception, 10.9 yards per target, and a touchdown every 10.1 targets to them. They have held C.J. Uzomah and Vance McDonald in check the last two weeks, and it’s not like we can say LaCosse is a class above those guys. I couldn’t trust LaCosse in fantasy championships, despite the great matchup. He’s just a middling TE2.

Jared Cook: In what’s been a miserable season for tight ends, Cook had his best fantasy season to date. He’s now posted at least 11.2 PPR points in four of his last five games and now has a matchup with one of the fluffiest matchups for tight ends. The Broncos have not only struggled against tight ends throughout the year, but the loss of Chris Harris Jr. has forced them to move safety Justin Simmons into the slot, which creates all sorts of issues this late in the year. In the first game without Harris, they allowed 7/210/1 to George Kittle, in the first half. There’s been five tight ends who’ve totaled at least 19 PPR points against the Broncos this year, including Antonio Gates. If Cook gets the targets, he’ll perform this week. He should be played as a solid TE1 this week.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (Saturday Game)

Total: 37.5
Line: TEN by 10.0

QBs
Josh Johnson: After all the hoopla, Johnson rushed for just 49 yards against the Jaguars last week. It was always going to be a tough matchup, but here’s the thing… the Titans defense is right up there. They’ve allowed just one passing touchdown over their last three games, which comes despite seeing 117 pass attempts against them. Let’s be fair and say that the games were against Eli Manning, Cody Kessler, and Josh McCown, but Johnson is no Patrick Mahomes. He’s thrown the ball just 41 times over the last two weeks and he doesn’t have the options to throw to in order to take advantage of the Titans’ biggest weakness, which is perimeter options. Josh Doctson and Michael Floyd are not getting separation, which will put Johnson in a bad spot against the defense who’s allowed just 17 passing touchdowns all year. Let’s be honest, if you’re playing Johnson, you’re doing it for the rushing yards, and the Titans did allow Deshaun Watson run for 114 yards and a touchdown against them in the two games they played this year. Still, he’s got somewhat of a limited ceiling with his lack of passing ability and options. This isn’t fantasy football like it was back in 2010 where 16 points would likely finish as a QB1. Even Lamar Jackson has finished outside the top-10 options in each of his five starts. Johnson is nothing more than a semi-high-floor, low-end QB2.

Marcus Mariota: It’s been a frustrating year for Mariota owners, as he’s now totaled less than six fantasy points in three of his last five games with a couple 20-point games mixed-in. It’s not just recently, either, as he has seven single-digit performances on the season. Going into the fantasy championship, it’s tough to rely on that roller coaster, though the Redskins have been a matchup to target with opposing quarterbacks. Since the start of Week 3, they’ve allowed 8-of-12 quarterbacks finish as top-12 options against them. Prior to “holding” Cody Kessler to 57 passing yards, the Redskins had allowed three straight top-10 performances to Eli Manning, Carson Wentz, and Dak Prescott. They were all divisional opponents, so there’s a level of familiarity, but they’ve been trending in the wrong direction. Mariota is the ultimate “play if you feel lucky QB2” because the matchup is solid, and he’s shown the ability to finish in QB1 territory.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Outside of that one 90-yard touchdown run against the Eagles on primetime three weeks ago, here are Peterson’s totals over the last seven games: 93 carries, 246 yards (2.65 yards per carry), two touchdowns, 11 receptions, and 49 receiving yards. That’s not what we’d call great. Now he goes to play the Titans who’ve allowed just 67 yards on 28 carries (2.39 yards per carry) the last two weeks to Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley? Neither of those running backs were able to find the end zone, either. It’s not to say the Titans haven’t had their lapses in run-defense this year, because they have, but returning home in a must-win game to stay in the playoff race should keep them sturdy against the Redskins, who have nothing outside of the run-game. Peterson is nothing more than a middling RB3 who gets all the goal-line carries for his team. The Titans have only allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs all season, so by playing the odds and recent trends, Peterson will have a hard time finding the end zone. As for Thompson, he’s totaled just 18 touches over the last three weeks combined, while being targeted by Johnson just twice last week. Even if he was targeted in the passing-game, the Titans have allowed just 1.08 PPR points per target to running backs, which is by far the best in the league (next closest team allows more than 1.30). Thompson isn’t anything more than a middling RB4.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: Over the last two weeks, Henry has totaled 50 carries, 408 yards, and six touchdowns. Over the first 12 games, he totaled 128 carries, 474 yards, and five touchdowns. Needless to say, he’s on a tear right now, demolishing whatever comes in his path. The Giants were a great matchup, but to see him total 170 yards and two touchdowns on a career-high 33 carries tells me that the team is growing trust in him more and more, while Lewis is a clear backup. Like the Giants run-defense, the Redskins have been struggling to contain opposing run games as well. They’ve now allowed 901 yards on 172 carries over their last seven games, while holding no team of running backs to less than 4.23 yards per carry. If Henry is getting 15-plus carries, the odds of him eclipsing the 100-yard mark appears to be very good. The downside is that the Redskins have allowed just three rushing touchdowns since Week 4, though we know that touchdowns can be a touchy thing. With the way he’s playing, Henry can’t be kept out of lineups. He’s a high-end RB2 who should be locked-and-loaded for another high-touch game. Lewis has clearly fallen into the backup role but has still totaled 25 touches over the last two weeks. Running backs have combined to average 29.7 touches per game against the Redskins over the last seven weeks, so it’s likely we’ll see another double-digit touch game for Lewis. He should be considered a high-end RB4 in this game.

WRs
Josh Doctson: He returned to the lineup last week to play the Jaguars, though he might as well have been inactive, as he finished with no catches on just two targets. The Titans have been a plus-matchup for perimeter wide receivers this year, as Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler have been below-average, but they’ve played much better as the year’s gone on. Over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed just 18-of-38 passing for 143 yards and no touchdowns. Granted, they played the Giants without Odell Beckham, Jaguars, and Jets receivers, but isn’t it fair to say the Redskins receivers are right there with that conversation of players. Doctson could snag a touchdown but the process to play him wouldn’t be correct, making him a touchdown-needy WR5.

Jamison Crowder: He’s now racked-up 11 targets over the last two weeks, netting 6/133/1 in the process, but now has the toughest matchup on the field against the Titans. They have had Logan Ryan covering the slot and he’d been the most consistent cornerback in coverage for them this year, but he’s recently been placed on injured reserve. Still, playing Crowder in this matchup during Week 16 doesn’t feel right, as the reward isn’t great enough for the risk. He’s just a WR5 with Johnson under center.

Corey Davis: It’s quite depressing watching Davis’ target totals go down the tubes, but that should be expected when they’re running the ball 40 times like they did in Week 15. He’s now averaged 4.8 targets per game over the last five weeks and totaled less than 7.0 PPR points in three of those games. The Redskins are surely going to have Josh Norman cover Davis, though it’s not as worrisome as you may think. In his coverage, Norman has allowed a 66 percent catch-rate, 13.0 yards per reception, and six touchdowns on 67 targets, which is good enough for a 103.6 QB Rating in his coverage. We also saw Davis eat-up Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore a few weeks back when they trusted him one-on-one. With the ups-and-downs of Mariota, it’s impossible to trust Davis as anything more than a WR3, especially with his declining targets. Just know that if you’re debating between him and someone else, it’s unlikely they’re as talented as Davis and have shown the upside that he has at times this year.

Taywan Taylor: Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen Taylor targeted one more time than Davis, so this isn’t a one- or two-week sample-size anymore. On top of that, he’s also produced more than Davis, as he has 11/180/0 with Davis sitting at 8/96/1 during that time. Taylor is going to see Quinton Dunbar in coverage, which is an upgrade from Davis’ matchup as well. Dunbar had played well to start the season but has struggled a bit since moving to the perimeter in Week 11, though his decline started around Week 8. Since then, he has allowed 20-of-29 passing for 378 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. That 18.9 yards per reception is big for Taylor, as he’s the deep threat in the offense, averaging 13.2 air yards per target while Davis sits at 10.2 yards. While I cannot foresee Taylor continuing to out-target Davis, he’s on the WR4/5 radar this week, though the volatility from Mariota must weigh-in on your decision. On paper, this is a great matchup for Taylor.

TEs
Vernon Davis: With Jordan Reed out of the lineup, many expected Davis to be the primary tight end. Instead, he was part of a three-way timeshare. Jeremy Sprinkle ran 16 routes and caught a touchdown while seeing as many targets as Davis himself (3), while Davis ran 14 routes, and Matt Flanagan ran 10 routes. It’s obviously not a clear-cut situation, but the good news is that you shouldn’t feel the need to play any of them in Week 16 against the Titans, who have been the best team at defending tight ends this season. Through 14 games, they’ve allowed just 58 receptions for 542 yards and zero touchdowns. They’re the only team in the league who’s yet to allow a tight end touchdown, and Evan Engram was just the second tight end to top 43 yards against them all season. Both Engram and Zach Ertz (the other one who topped 43 yards) saw at least 12 targets. Davis isn’t a preferred streamer this week. Update: Davis has been ruled out for this game.

Anthony Firkser: After Jonnu Smith went down, we figured we’d have more Firkser going forward. I mean, he’d totaled 13 targets over the last four weeks with Smith on the field, so we should naturally expect a bump, right? He wasn’t targeted a single time in Week 15 and actually ran fewer routes than MyCole Pruitt (11 to 7). It’s a good thing you shouldn’t feel pressured to use him in Week 16, as the Redskins have been phenomenal against tight ends. They’ve allowed just two top-10 options all season and both of them (Zach Ertz and Evan Engram) saw at least nine targets. With D.J. Swearinger in coverage, it’s not a week to trust Firkser in fantasy lineups.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday Game)

Total: 45.5
Line: LAC by 5.5

QBs
Lamar Jackson: There are many out there who believe Jackson is the answer to the Ravens problems, though I wouldn’t be sure about that just yet. While he’s 4-1 as the starter, he’s played the Bengals, Raiders, Falcons, and Buccaneers in his four wins, three teams who’ll likely be picking in the top-10 of next year’s draft. His loss to the Chiefs was a close one, too, so he’s doing his job, but his passing leaves a lot to be desired. He’s completed just 66-of-112 passes (58.9 percent) for 731 yards (6.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and three interceptions during his five starts against those defenses. We care about fantasy around these parts and he’s delivered a solid floor in those games, as he’s finished in-between 15.9-20.2 fantasy points in every game, which is QB10-15 territory. Here’s his finishes each week: QB11, QB15, QB11, QB14, QB12. The Chargers may be his toughest test yet, though they’ve struggled against the run since losing Denzel Perryman and Corey Liuget, allowing eight rushing touchdowns in the last five games. On the year, the Chargers have allowed 103.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks as the ninth-fewest in the league, but again, the matchup has improved. In a game that could have a negative gamescript (as implied by the spread), we could see Jackson drop-back more than usual, which could also lead to more scrambling when the pocket breaks down. He should be played as he’s performed the last five games, a high-end QB2 who comes with a high floor.

Philip Rivers: It seems like Rivers will be without his go-to receiver this week, as Keenan Allen is dealing with a hip-pointer that usually costs players 1-3 weeks. It’s also coming at a terrible time, as the Ravens are among the best defenses in the league. The 6.24 yards per attempt and 58.7 percent completion-rate they allow rank as the best in the NFL, while their 3.63 percent touchdown-rate ranks sixth-best. Over the last three weeks, they’ve held the combination of Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan to just 221.7 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. We have seen three quarterbacks break the 20-point fantasy mark against them this year, but two of those quarterbacks had rushing touchdowns, something Rivers isn’t going to accomplish. Missing his top option is going to be an issue, as the yardage isn’t likely to carry him through to a solid fantasy performance this week. Rivers has carried fantasy teams for much of the season, but he’s likely to let them down in Week 16. He’s just a middling QB2 in this matchup. Even if Allen were able to play, he’s not going to receive the bump necessary to get into QB1 territory.

RBs
Kenneth Dixon and Gus Edwards: After hearing that Ty Montgomery was inactive for last week’s game, you had to wonder how much impact Dixon would have on the passing-game, but the game didn’t go that way, leaving the Ravens to run the ball an astonishing 49 times against the Bucs. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards on the season, though that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story. With the losses of Denzel Perryman and Corey Liuget on their front-seven, they’ve weakened a bit, allowing eight rushing touchdowns over their last five games. It’s also been difficult for teams to rack up carries against them, as just four teams have been able to total more than 22 carries with their running backs. We know that won’t be the case with the Ravens run-heavy approach, but it’s important because they don’t allow gobs of production like some of their recent opponents have. Edwards has still yet to record a single catch in his five starts and would be most impacted if the gamescript went south. That’s very possible in this game, as they’re on the road and 5.5-point underdogs. He should be considered a touchdown-dependent high-end RB3, as the Chargers have allowed just three running backs to top 79 rushing yards against them all year. Dixon is risky as well, as he’s clearly splitting carries with Edwards and we don’t know if Montgomery being inactive had anything to do with last week’s gameplan/opponent. He should be considered a low-end RB3/high-end RB4 who would likely benefit from the gamescript going south because he’s at least somewhat involved in the pass-game. If Montgomery is inactive again, it would increase Dixon’s appeal, but nothing should surprise you with this backfield.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: It appears that Gordon and Ekeler are both expected back this week, though it’s not a great matchup against the Ravens. They’ve still yet to allow multiple rushing touchdowns to any team of running backs in a game this year and have also yet to allow a team to average more than 4.47 yards per carry against them. Let me just say that for someone who looks at numbers as much as I do, that last stat is extremely impressive this late in the season. No team has run the ball more than 25 times against them since way back in Week 7 (Saints). It’s not just on the ground where they limit running backs, as they’ve allowed a league-low 4.13 yards per target to them through the air. If there’s a glimmer of hope, it’s that they’ve allowed nine total touchdowns (6 rushing, 3 receiving) to running backs over their last eight games, which comes after allowing just one touchdown in their first six games. But still, knowing that no team of running backs has rushed for more than 111 yards against them is worrisome for Gordon’s ceiling. You’re playing him as an RB1 when he’s on the field, but don’t expect anything more than low-end RB1 numbers. As for Ekeler, he’s not a recommended play with the increased risk/bad matchup. It’d be surprising to see him total more than 5-8 touches in this game, which isn’t enough to guarantee production or warrant more than a low-end RB4 start. Update: Ekeler has been listed as doubtful for the game while Gordon has no designation and is good to go. Justin Jackson takes Ekeler’s place as a low-end RB4. 

WRs
John Brown: Since Jackson took over as the quarterback, here’s the breakdown of targets among Ravens wide receivers: Snead 24, Brown 21, Crabtree 18, Chris Moore 6. Unfortunately, it hasn’t amounted to much production for Brown, who has caught just five of his targets for 80 yards in that span. For those doing the math at home, that’s one catch for 16 yards per game. Now against a Chargers secondary that’s allowed just four top-20 receivers all season, it’s not a matchup you want/need to target. They just held fellow speedster Tyreek Hill to four catches and 46 yards, so not even Brown’s speed should save him here. There’s that off chance that he catches a long touchdown, but given his five-game averages with Jackson, there’s a very small chance of that happening.

Michael Crabtree: You’d have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find the last time Crabtree topped 36 yards. At that time, Adam Thielen still had his 100-yard streak going and the Falcons were still playoff contenders. Point being that Crabtree is unplayable with Jackson under center. He wasn’t anything more than a WR4 with Flacco, but his owners are longing for those days. When someone says he should have the best shot at a receiving touchdown on the team, they may be right, but then what? Even if he does, you’re looking at 20-30 yards and a touchdown? Hardly going to win you a fantasy championship. He’ll see a lot of Casey Hayward this game, too. You cannot confidently play any Ravens wide receiver with Jackson under center, especially in a tough matchup.

Willie Snead: Since Jackson took over as the quarterback, here’s the breakdown of targets among Ravens wide receivers: Snead 24, Brown 21, Crabtree 18, Chris Moore 6. It’s not just the targets for Snead, but he also leads the team with 178 yards in that span. But here’s the thing – when you add that up, it’s 35.6 yards per game, hardly worth getting excited about, especially when Snead hasn’t scored and was held below 10 yards in two of the five games. His matchup with Desmond King isn’t a favorable one, as he’s allowed just 6.84 yards per target in his coverage while allowing just two touchdowns on 69 targets. Snead isn’t more than a WR5, though he is the most appealing Ravens receiver in PPR formats.

Keenan Allen: I’m listing Allen here because I know there’ll be questions, though I do not expect him to play in this game. The hip pointer injury he suffered in Week 15 typically costs players 1-3 weeks and it’s likely the Chargers learned their lesson with Melvin Gordon about letting players play through injury. His matchup in the slot would be the best on the field against Tavon Young, who’s allowed three touchdowns on just 40 targets as the slot cornerback. The Ravens may even send Brandon Carr into the slot to cover Allen, knowing he’s the go-to target. The Ravens finally allowed their first 100-yard receiver on the season (Mike Evans last week) and have allowed just one receiver touchdown every 31.3 targets, which is the second-best mark in football. Even if Allen were to suit-up, he’d be a risky WR2 in this matchup against a stingy Ravens defense. Update: Allen is expected to play on Saturday night, though nothing is guaranteed. Stay tuned to the inactive lists that come out 1.5 hours before game-time. 

Mike Williams: Holy explosion, Mr. Williams. One of my bold predictions from the offseason was that Williams would lead the Chargers in receiving touchdowns. Well, not only did that happen, but he ranks fifth in the NFL with nine of them through 14 games. He’s caught them on just 57 targets. If you’ve been here all year, you know how frustrating it’s been because when Williams has been targeted, he’s been gold. With Allen out for much of the game last week, he saw a career-high nine targets, hauling in seven passes for 76 yards and two touchdowns, with another touchdown on the ground. The question becomes… will he remain a full-time receiver when Allen comes back? It may not matter too much this week, though, as the Ravens perimeter cornerback duo of Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been phenomenal, allowing just a 49 percent catch-rate in their coverage with just four touchdowns on 130 targets. Outside of A.J. Green‘s explosion on Thursday night football (three touchdowns in the first-half), the Ravens have allowed just six touchdowns to wide receivers. Even including Green’s numbers, they’ve allowed a touchdown every 31.3 targets, which ranks as the second-best number in the league. If Allen sits, Williams is still in the low-end WR3 conversation because of his full-time role. If Allen plays, he falls into middling WR4 territory. Update: Allen has been listed as questionable for the game which makes Williams much riskier. 

Tyrell Williams: It was maddening to watch him get targeted over the better Williams last week, as he looks still out there and is nothing more than a body running routes. Simply put, he’s not a difference-maker, but rather a role-player whose big games are a product of Rivers. The Ravens are going to make his life difficult, as they allow a league-low 53.9 percent completion-rate to wide receivers and a league-low 1.38 PPR points per target to them. They have also not been very susceptible to the big-play, as they’ve allowed just four passing plays of 40-plus yards this season, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. Williams is nothing more than a long-play hopeful WR5/6.

TEs
Mark Andrews: It’s still a four-way timeshare between the Ravens tight ends, but Andrews ran twice as many routes (17) than any other one, so he remains the tight end you’d want to play of them, though I’m not sure why you’d do that to yourself against the Chargers, who have allowed the fewest yards per target (5.56) to tight ends this season. They’ve also allowed just four touchdowns to them and that’s despite playing Travis Kelce twice. We chase targets at the tight end position with high probabilities to score and Andrews has neither of those. He’s totaled 11 targets in Jackson’s five starts and hasn’t caught a single touchdown. None of the Ravens tight ends make sense as streaming material.

Antonio Gates: He had to step-up in the absence of Allen last week and did well, hauling in 4-of-5 targets for 54 yards while juking his defender to gain some yards after the catch on one of them. Truth be told, Gates looks more like an undersized lineman at this point in time and will likely have a tough time doing much against the Ravens. They haven’t been a dominant defense against the position, but of those who’ve produced against them, they’re all guys who consistently see targets in their offense. No tight end has totaled more than 77 yards against them, so even when they do allow a TE1 performance, it hasn’t been massive. There’s been just three games all season where Gates has totaled more than 27 yards and just once has he totaled more than five targets. If you want to be an optimist, the Ravens have allowed a tight end touchdown in six of their last eight games. For me, he’s nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2, though it would help his cause if Allen was out.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.