Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Total: 45.0
Line: NE by 12.5

QBs
Josh Allen: Despite throwing just four touchdowns over the last four weeks, Allen remains the No. 2 fantasy quarterback in that time. The Lions were always going to be a tough matchup for him, as they hadn’t allowed a quarterback more than 18 rushing yards, but fortunately, Allen snuck in a rushing touchdown and had enough passing production to carry him to a top-12 performance. The matchup against the Patriots should suit him well, as he’ll drop back more than he typically does due to gamescript as 12.5-point underdogs. That means more scrambling, which is where he shines, and not on designed runs. The Patriots have allowed a league-high 6.45 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks and we saw Mitch Trubisky tag them for 81 yards and a touchdown earlier in the year. The Patriots at home coming off two straight losses is worrisome, but Allen’s floor has been established and the Patriots have had trouble stopping what he does best. It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots have allowed at least one passing touchdown in 13-of-14 games. He’s in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 conversation this week.

Tom Brady: Coming off his best game of the year in Week 14, Brady didn’t look so hot against the Steelers last week, particularly when he threw the game-clinching interception. It was an odd throw by Brady to say the least. He’ll now return home to play against a Bills defense that has been phenomenal all year. The miniscule 208 yards they allowed to Matthew Stafford last week ended a five-game streak of holding opposing quarterbacks to 170 yards or less. They’ve still held eight of the last 10 quarterbacks to less than 180 yards, which is why there isn’t a team in the NFL that’s allowed fewer passing yards than the Bills have. On the season, they’ve allowed over 800 yards less than the Steelers. Brady threw for more yards (324) against them than any other quarterback has this year, though it took him 45 pass attempts and he didn’t throw a touchdown. The only quarterback to finish in the top-15 against the Bills since Week 4 was Andrew Luck and he did that by throwing four touchdowns (with just 156 yards). Knowing that Brady has finished with 15.6 points or less in six of his last 12 games, combined with the terrible matchup, and you have yourself someone who’s outside the QB1 range. It’ll be curious to see how the Patriots approach this game coming off two losses, but Brady should be considered a middling QB2 who lacks much upside.

RBs
LeSean McCoy: It appears McCoy is good to go this week after getting in full practices on Thursday and Friday. The matchup with the Patriots wasn’t too kind earlier in the season when he totaled just 13 yards on 12 carries, though he made up for it through the air, as he caught a season-high six passes for 82 yards. The Patriots are coming off a game in which they allowed Jaylen Samuels 172 total yards on 21 touches, though the Patriots obviously had other concerns to tend to with the Steelers wide receivers. Not just that, though, as the Patriots allowed 176 yards and two touchdowns to the Dolphins running backs in Week 14. The Patriots have had defensive tackle Danny Shelton as a healthy scratch three straight weeks and maybe it’s not the best plan for them. With Shelton off the field, they’ve allowed 5.17 yards per carry this year. With Josh Gordon now inactive, maybe that changes. Whatever the case, the Bills are 13.5-point underdogs on the road, so you’re not expecting much on the ground from McCoy. You want the receiving totals, but even those haven’t been great with Allen under center, as he hasn’t targeted the running backs nearly as much as Nathan Peterman, Derek Anderson, or Matt Barkley did. McCoy shouldn’t be relied upon as anything more than a high-end RB3 who is coming off a soft-tissue injury.

Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: Can we blame Burkhead for the Patriots lack of run-game? I’m kidding, but seriously, since he returned three weeks ago, none of the running backs have tallied a touchdown, and there’s been just one top-24 performance amongst them (White in Week 13). Can they right the ship against the Bills? They’ve allowed 15 rushing touchdowns to running backs which ranks as the second-most this season, including multiple touchdowns in three of the last six games. There’ve been just four teams to run the ball more than 24 times against the Bills, and here’s their totals from those games: 27/110/1, 30/219/1, 32/144/2, and 26/105/1. The Patriots are going to run the ball 25-plus times in this game at home, so we’re going to see someone finish as a top-15 option. Michel is the logical choice, as he leads this timeshare in carries. He has 50, Burkhead 15, and White 12. We’ve also seen Michel get 11 red zone carries compared to four combined between Burkhead and White. Michel should be started as a high-end RB2 who will likely finish top-12 this week while White is more of a middling RB3 with all the healthy options in the pass-game. Burkhead is nothing more than a middling RB4 who’s seen 21 touches over the last three weeks combined. If you’re looking to bet on Belichick moving in a different direction with the run-game, he’d be the one to take Michel’s role.

WRs
Robert Foster: He’s now totaled at least 94 yards in four of the last five games and someone many are contemplating tossing in their Week 16 lineup. The issue is that he plays about 82 percent of his snaps on the perimeter, which means he’ll match-up with Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty most of the game. In fact, you may see the Patriots stick Gilmore on him in shadow coverage. That’s concerning, as Gilmore is one of the better shadow cornerbacks in the game. While shadowing the opponent’s No. 1 receiver nearly every week, he’s allowed just a 49.4 percent completion-rate and 11.5 yards per reception. On the other side, McCourty hasn’t been much more giving, as he’s allowed just a 59 percent catch-rate with just three touchdowns on 81 targets in his coverage. Foster is still the go-to target for Allen when going deep, so the possibility for a big-play is there. He’s seen 13 targets over the last two weeks and the gamescript is likely to feature more pass attempts from Allen, making Foster a middling WR4 who has a tough matchup here.

Isaiah McKenzie: Now having seen 14 targets over the last two games and getting another five rushing attempts, McKenzie needs to be considered. He left the game against the Lions, but it turned out to be just a cramp in his calf and he returned to the game. He’s the safer option between him and Foster, as his average depth of target doesn’t rely on Allen’s accuracy, as 5.8-yard average depth of target from last week is much lower than Foster’s 23.8-yard average. It also helps that he’s run 78 percent of his routes from the slot while Zay Jones was booted to the perimeter. The Patriots struggle the most with slot receivers as well, so McKenzie should be on your high-end WR4 conversation in PPR leagues. He doesn’t come with the ceiling that Foster does, but he’s streamable if you’re in trouble.

Josh Gordon: Two targets? Really? We don’t know of a reason that should make Brady stop throwing to Gordon considering their success, but that was his second sub-three target game over the last three weeks. Is it a coincidence that when Brady targeted Gordon nine times in Week 14 that he had his best game of the year? The Bills aren’t a matchup we’ve targeted this year, as they’ve allowed just 11 wide receivers to post top-30 numbers against them. This is your reminder that the Bills have played 14 games. The good news is that five of them have come in the last four weeks. In the first meeting with them, Gordon saw six targets and totaled 4/42/0. With Gronkowski back in full swing and knowing the Patriots should employ a run-heavy attack, Gordon has the looks of a risky WR3 who’s apparently no sure thing for five targets. It did help to see Kenny Golladay post 7/146/0 against them last week, though. I’ll give him the tiebreaker if you’re truly torn on two players.

Julian Edelman: While Gordon has been struggling for targets, Edelman has seen a steady flow of them throughout the season. In fact, he’s totaled less than seven targets just once and has totaled 10 or more targets in five of the last seven games. He’ll get Rafael Bush in the slot, a plus matchup for Edelman, as Bush has never been asked to be a full-time player throughout his nine-year career. On 28 targets in coverage this year, he’s allowed 22 receptions for 201 yards and two touchdowns. If you were to combine the last three years, he’s allowed 55-of-76 passing for 462 yards and six touchdowns. Knowing that Edelman is matched-up with a backup, the Patriots should be expected to target this matchup, making Edelman a middling WR2 in a game where they shouldn’t be throwing a whole lot.

Chris Hogan: Many will come here looking for answers on whether Hogan is a good start now that Josh Gordon is out of the league. Unfortunately, Hogan doesn’t inspire much confidence after we watched him post 42 yards or less in each of the first five games without Gordon there/in a full-time role. With a healthy Gronkowski, Edelman, Burkhead, and White, there are plenty of options for Brady to throw to. Not to mention, the Bills have allowed just 11 wide receivers to post to-30 numbers against them. Hogan is nothing more than a WR5 against his former team.

TEs
Charles Clay: Nope.

Rob Gronkowski: Welcome to the world’s biggest roller coaster, the Patriots offense. Gronkowski goes from stud TE1 to lowly dud overnight, as he’s now totaled 26 or less yards in two of the last three games. Coming off a horrid performance against the Steelers where he caught just two passes for 21 yards, he’ll have a rematch with the defense who held him to 3/43/0 on eight targets in the first matchup. The Bills have been a brutal matchup for tight ends, even those who are targeted, as they’ve allowed just a 57.7 percent completion-rate, which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also allowed just 34.3 yards per game to the position, which ranks as the second-best mark in the league. To give you an idea of how good they’ve been, the absolute best performance they’ve allowed was 48 yards and a touchdown. The next best performance? Just 28 yards and a touchdown. If you’re here with Gronkowski, it’s unlikely you have a better player on your bench, but he’s not a great play this week. He should be considered more of a middling to low-end TE1 this week.

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Total: 45.0
Line: EVEN

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: It’s now been nine straight games where Rodgers has gone without throwing more than two touchdowns in a game. The loss of Mike McCarthy hasn’t changed much with the offense, as they’re just not functioning right now. On top of that, Rodgers was off his game last week. The pressure of the Bears front-seven was constant, and it led to Rodgers missing throws he’d typically make. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdown passes to nine of their last 11 opponents, including Matt Barkley, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles. Their last five opponents have combined to complete 95-of-145 attempts for 1,297 yards (8.94 yards per attempt) with eight touchdowns with another 167 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Each of those five quarterbacks were able to finish with at least 17.1 fantasy points against them. Rodgers has had some brutal matchups the last month against the Vikings, Cardinals, and Bears, but he should jump back into QB1 numbers this week. He should be played as a high-floor QB1.

Sam Darnold: He put together his best game in quite some time last week, as he was able to throw for 253 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans, while also chipping in with a career-high 35 rushing yards. The Packers have been really average across the board this year when it comes to their pass-defense, but it may be tough for Darnold to stay upright in this contest, as the Packers 8.20 percent sack-rate is the third-highest mark in the league. The team who ranks No. 2 (Vikings) forced Darnold into three interceptions when they played earlier this year. On top of that, his new favorite weapon (Anderson) has a tough matchup in coverage this week. The Packers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the last five games, but they’ve had a pretty tough schedule against Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Mitch Trubisky in that time. With the lack of workhorse behind him, Darnold should throw the ball 35-plus times in this game, but it’s nothing spectacular for fantasy purposes. He’s just a low-end QB2.

RBs
Jamaal Williams: After allowing 506 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in Weeks 10-13, the Jets run-defense has shown-up in back-to-back weeks, holding the Bills and Texans running backs to just 67 scoreless yards on 30 carries the last two weeks. It’s worth noting that LeSean McCoy left early in the game and the Jets were starting their third-string running back, but it’s still a step in the right direction. The Jets have been a run-defense to target this year, as they’ve allowed 10 different running backs finish as top-24 options against them. Just two have made it into the top-10 and each of those running backs (Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray) scored twice. With Aaron Jones not around, Williams will walk back into the workhorse role that he had over the final eight games of 2017. Even though he didn’t have Rodgers under center for 90 percent of those games, he finished as the RB9 during those eight games. He’s going to get all goal-line work and the Jets have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. When you have a 15-plus touch running back in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, you play him as a low-end RB2 at the very least.

Elijah McGuire: Had McGuire not get shoved into the end zone by his lineman last week, most would be looking elsewhere for a streaming running back, but it was a brutal matchup against the Texans, so his lowly 42 yards on 18 carries shouldn’t be too shocking. The fact that he saw 21 touches is massive, as it shows his touch-upside in a game they’re at home in a pick’em. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time the Packers didn’t allow at least one double-digit PPR running back, which was the Bills, who struggle against everyone. The Packers have allowed a top-24 running back in all but two games this year as LeSean McCoy was the RB35, while Ito Smith finished as the RB29, so we’re talking about a top-36 floor with McGuire because Trenton Cannon isn’t anything more than a third-down back who’s capped at 6-8 carries. The Packers have allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the season but have allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs this year, so again, the matchup favors McGuire who can be played as a high-end RB3 who just might post a top-18 performance.

WRs
Davante Adams: Without looking, guess how many games Adams has had with less than 16.0 PPR points. Ah, heck, the answer is none. He’s the only wide receiver in the league who can say that. He’ll see a mixture of Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson this week, a duo that’s played average for the most part, though they’ve had a really light schedule this year. Here’s the list of wide receivers who’ve posted 100-plus yards against them: Adam Thielen, Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief, Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Golladay, Robert Foster (twice), Taywan Taylor, and DeAndre Hopkins. You think Adams will be okay? He’s in your lineup every week and there’s little reason to doubt him as an elite WR1 this week.

Randall Cobb (doubtful): Since returning to the lineup in Week 13, Cobb has totaled 18 targets in three games. That’s good territory to be in against the Jets, who’ve struggled to contain slot receivers the entire season. Buster Skrine is the one tasked with covering Cobb, and he’s allowed 39-of-54 passing for 453 yards and four touchdowns. That 8.4 yard-per-target number is rather high for a slot cornerback. It’s also why we’ve seen eight different slot-heavy receivers finish with double-digit PPR games against the Jets. Cobb hasn’t topped 43 yards since back in Week 1, so you can’t go crazy with your expectations, but he belongs in the WR4 conversation this week with some upside. Update: Cobb is listed as doubtful and unlikely to play this week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 15. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is typically the one who takes over the slot role when Cobb is out, so he could be a sleeper in DFS this week.  

Robby Anderson: It appears the connection between Anderson and Darnold is growing, as he’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games, something that happened just once in the first 12 weeks of the season. Unfortunately, he’s walking into a tough matchup with Jaire Alexander who’s been tight in-coverage over the last two weeks. While Julio Jones was able to post a good week, he did so on a lot of highlight-reel grabs. Alexander has still allowed just two touchdowns on his 75 targets in his coverage, so he’s going to limit upside at the very least. Still, any wide receiver getting the targets Anderson is getting, you have to consider him a WR4, at minimum. If Quincy Enunwa misses another game with his ankle injury, Anderson should be considered a low-end WR3. Update: Enunwa is out for this game. 

TEs
Jimmy Graham: So, the whole playing through the broken thumb thing… do you think Graham just wishes he’d taken the time off? I’m kidding! C’mon, we can have fun here. He hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 6 and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9. It’s unlikely either of those things change in this matchup with Jamal Adams, who’s tormented tight ends all year. Because of him, the Jets have allowed the fewest receptions (39) and yardage (452) to tight ends this season. They have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends, though as we all know, are highly unpredictable, especially when we’re talking about a less-than-100-percent Graham. The last two touchdowns they allowed were to backup tight end Anthony Firkser, and then Rob Gronkowski who made a ridiculous catch while being hit by two players. Graham isn’t a preferred option in Week 16 and should be regarded as a high-risk TE2.

Chris Herndon: The increase in targets for Anderson seems to have left Herndon a bit short the last two weeks as he totaled just six targets in the two games combined. He still managed to catch three balls for 53 yards against the Texans and the matchup with the Bills was a brutal one. The Packers haven’t been really good against the tight end position this year, as there have been just three top-10 tight ends all season and all three performances came against division rivals (Kyle Rudolph twice, Trey Burton). Tight ends have only been targeted five times in the red zone against them, which begs the question – do the Packers specifically hone-in on tight ends in that area of the field. It makes sense, as they’ve allowed just two tight end touchdowns, while they’ve allowed 19 touchdowns to wide receivers. Herndon has posted at least 31 yards in seven of his last nine games, so he’s shown somewhat of a floor, but the matchup isn’t one that many tight ends have been able to do much in. He’s just a middling TE2 this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Total: 39.5
Line: MIA by 4.5

QBs
Cody Kessler: He threw for 57 yards against the Redskins last week. No. He’s averaged just 149.0 passing yards per game since taking over as the starter while throwing one touchdown on 84 attempts. You aren’t trusting him no matter what the matchup is. Yes, the Dolphins have allowed 26 passing touchdowns in their last 11 games, including multiple touchdown passes in eight of their last nine games, but that still doesn’t mean you want to tempt the fantasy gods with Kessler outside of a 2QB league.

Ryan Tannehill: The touchdown percentage took a dip last week, as we expected it to against the Vikings. Not only was Tannehill due for regression but that matchup was brutal. For as bad as the Jaguars have been overall, their defense is still a top-five unit. They’ve now held three of the last four quarterbacks to play them to 162 yards or less and have allowed just two passing touchdowns in those four games. On the season, there’s been just 4-of-14 quarterbacks to average more than 6.8 yards per attempt against them, and one of those quarterbacks threw the ball just 19 times. You shouldn’t be trusting Tannehill anywhere near your fantasy lineups.

RBs
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: After getting 13 touches in the first half last week, Fournette received just one touch in the second-half. Many are saying Fournette was pulled due to a foot injury, but Doug Marrone and Fournette both said that wasn’t the case after the game and that it was part of their gameplan. They wanted to get practice squad running back David Williams some work was their reasoning and that’s likely true considering Yeldon touches the ball just four times. Will that change this week? That’s tough to say but we’ll have to pay attention to press conferences this week. The Dolphins are coming off a game in which they allowed the Vikings running backs to combine for 204 yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries behind a putrid offensive line, similar to the one the Jaguars have fielded lately. There’s been nine different occasions where the Dolphins have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in a game, including five individual running backs who’ve crossed the century-mark. This has more to do with the workload than it does the matchup, but Fournette cannot be relied upon for RB1 production, even in this plus-matchup. He’s still likely to net 12-15 touches, so he should still be considered a solid RB2 in this matchup. It’s clear that you don’t want to trust Yeldon, who’s totaled just six touches the last two weeks combined.

Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage: There’s nothing good I can say about owning a Dolphins running back, as I’m fairly certain Gase plays whichever running back pops up in the magic 8-ball when he asks about them. Seriously, take a look at the weekly touch totals between the running backs by week:

As you can see, there’s no real trend among how Gase distributes the touches, outside the fact that only Frank Gore has totaled more than 17 touches in a game. Why are so many jumping on Ballage when he’s a lesser version of Drake? He had a good game in Week 15, but Drake has had better games this season, yet was never granted the starting role. Knowing they’ve had just 23 carries as a team over the last three weeks doesn’t lend much confidence in any of them against the Jaguars, who have allowed just four RB1 performances the entire year. Every running back on that short list carried the ball at least 18 times and totaled at least 20 touches. Outside of the one Derrick Henry game, they’ve allowed just 967 yards and four touchdowns on 265 carries (3.65 yards per carry). This is not a good matchup and if anyone tells you that they know which running back will get most of the carries, they’re lying to you. Drake is nothing more than a middling RB3 while Ballage is on the RB4 radar with his big performance in garbage time against the Vikings.

WRs
Donte Moncrief: He’s now finished with less than 50 yards in each of the last five games and hit rock-bottom last week with a two-target, zero-catch performance against the Redskins. He’s not even seeing the targets he once did, as he’s topped four targets just once over the last six weeks. When those targets are coming from a bad source, you might as well cut the expected production in half. He’s not worth considering against the Dolphins this week.

Dede Westbrook: If there’s one receiver who’s remained somewhat relevant for the Jaguars since the move to Kessler, it’s Westbrook who has 178 yards and two touchdowns over the last four weeks. He also has the best matchup on the field against the Dolphins, as Bobby McCain has been the target of several teams over the last two months, allowing 31 of the last 37 passes to come his way to be completed for 307 yards and five touchdowns. That’s the time since he returned from his knee injury, so it’s possible that he’s still not right. It’s not great relying on a Jaguars pass-catcher, but if you want to pick one, it’d be Westbrook. He’s just a middling WR4 who would probably lose a tiebreaker if I was torn on two players because of who his quarterback is and how bad the offense is.

Kenny Stills: We all know who the No. 1 target is for Tannehill right now, as Stills played 51 snaps last week while DeVante Parker tallied just 19 snaps, which ranked behind Brice Butler. Unfortunately, Stills has another brutal matchup this week against the most talented cornerback duo in the league, as Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye don’t allow much production in their coverage. Stills does run roughly 30 percent of his routes from the slot, so he can evade their coverage at times, but since D.J. Hayden returned, even the slot hasn’t been very attractive to opposing wide receivers. Just how bad is it? Of their opponents top three wide receivers and top tight end combined, they have allowed an average of 25.9 PPR points to them over the last four games. No matter which way you slice it, that’s elite. It’s tough to rely even on a stray touchdown, as the Jaguars have allowed just one every 35.7 targets to wide receivers, the least often in the league. Stills is nothing more than a low-end WR4/high-end WR5.

TEs
James O’Shaughnessy: He’s seen just 11 targets over the last five games and hasn’t topped 20 yards in that time, so you’re not even considering playing him, no matter the matchup.

Mike Gesicki: He totaled his third-highest target total of the season in Week 15… three. Ugh. Not just that, but the matchup against the Jaguars isn’t a good one. Outside of Eric Ebron and Travis Kelce, they haven’t allowed a single tight end to eclipse 36 yards against them, including Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, and Rob Gronkowski. You’re not even considering Gesicki.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 42.5
Line: CHI by 4.0

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: We saw a much better version of Trubisky against the Packers last week, though he’s still working his way back while knocking the rust off. A matchup with the 49ers should give him a nice shove in the right direction, as they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 11-of-14 games this year and just lost a starting cornerback for the year. The matchup with the 49ers has produced a high-floor, as 11-of-14 quarterbacks were able to post at least 16.5 fantasy points in the matchup. Those who didn’t? Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, and Derek Carr. The 49ers haven’t really played a mobile quarterback like Trubisky this year, as Russell Wilson is as close as it gets, though he hasn’t run much this season. With the 49ers forced to play backup cornerbacks at two of the three slots, and with Richard Sherman struggling in coverage as of late, Trubisky should post QB1-type numbers this week and provide a 16-point floor in the process.

Nick Mullens: Remember when Mullens was close to getting benched for C.J. Beathard after struggling in back-to-back games against the Giants and Bucs? That seems so long ago now that Mullens has averaged 340.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns the last three weeks. He’ll have his toughest matchup of the season in Week 16 as the Bears pass-rush comes to town. Mullens has been sacked 13 times over the last four games, which is the sixth-most in football during that time. Meanwhile, they’ll ask rookie Mike McGlinchey to keep Khalil Mack in check. While it’s possible the Bears defense has a letdown game on the road after a big-time divisional win, but they’ve already had that “overlooked” road game earlier this year when they lost to the Dolphins on the road. With a chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, expect the Bears to come ready to play. They’ve allowed just one passing touchdown over the last four weeks despite playing against Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford. They also haven’t allowed a quarterback more than 6.5 yards per attempt since way back in Week 7. Even if Mullens plays well, that’s likely borderline top-20 numbers, but you shouldn’t count on it. It does help that Pro Bowl safety Eddie Jackson is likely out for this game.

RBs
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: Dare I say that Howard has looked pretty good the last two weeks? He’s totaled 161 yards on 38 carries with a touchdown and even chipped-in two receptions for 17 yards. He hasn’t been so sluggish and has started to show a little wiggle to his game, though he won’t be mistaken for Saquon Barkley any time soon. The 49ers were worn down last week against Chris Carson who willed his way to over 100 yards and a touchdown. It was the first time they’d allowed a top-15 running back since Todd Gurley in Week 7. There have been just four teams this season who’ve totaled more than 82 rushing yards as a team against the 49ers, with the Seahawks being two of them, and the others being the Rams and the Chargers. Knowing that, it shouldn’t be a surprise to hear that Carson and Melvin Gordon have been the only two running backs to accumulate more than 69 yards on the ground against them. The matchups have been in Howard’s favor the last two weeks, but against the 49ers, Cohen’s skill-set should be more heavily utilized. There have been nine different running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 receiving yards against the 49ers, as they have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. Howard should be looked at as a high-floor, low-upside RB3 while Cohen is back in the low-end RB2 conversation with a slight bump in PPR formats.

Matt Breida and Jeffery Wilson: With Breida back in the lineup, the touch count was: Breida 23, Wilson 8. When healthy, he’s the running back you want to play from this backfield. That being said, the Bears aren’t a team you want to play many running backs against, as they’ve allowed just five top-15 performances all year. The good news is that they’ve started to show a bit more vulnerability as the year’s gone on and have allowed 360 yards on 80 carries (4.50 yards per carry) with three touchdowns over the last four games after allowing just 626 yards on 193 carries (3.24 yards per carry) with one touchdown over the first 10 games. They’ve also lost cornerback Bryce Callahan for the year and will likely be without safety Eddie Jackson, which might force the linebackers to play a bit more conservatively. They have also allowed a bit more yards (518) through the air, where we know Breida is utilized as well. It’s not a great matchup but it looks better than it did a month ago. Breida should be played as a low-end RB2 while Wilson is best left on fantasy benches.

WRs
Allen Robinson: He hasn’t produced massive results, but Robinson’s workload is very safe as he’s totaled at least seven targets in five of the last six games. He’s also meeting the 49ers at the perfect time, as they’ve been struggling in the secondary and just lost a starting cornerback. Robinson will match-up with Richard Sherman the most, who has struggled as of late. You could actually go all the way back to Week 6 to see the decline in his play, as he’s allowed 23-of-30 passing for 338 yards and a touchdown in that time, good enough for a 124.0 QB Rating. Not just him, either, as Robinson travels into the slot where fifth-round rookie D.J. Reed has been forced to play. He’s allowed 10/70/2 on just 11 targets in his coverage. Robinson has the looks of a low-end WR2 this week who comes with some upside.

Taylor Gabriel: After seeing at least seven targets in four straight games, Gabriel fell to just three targets last week, though a lot has to do with the Bears decrease in pass attempts. The weather will be much more pass-friendly in San Francisco and the 49ers just lost the cornerback who was supposed to be covering Gabriel. Ahkello Witherspoon is out for the year after suffering a knee injury, so we’ll see third-round rookie Tarvarius Moore take his place. He’s only covered 12 targets this year, allowing six catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on them. The downside is that he does have the speed to cover Gabriel, as he ran a 4.32-second 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day. His weaknesses coming out of college were lack of experience and not known to be a great tackler. Gabriel is a seasoned veteran who may be able to find holes in the young man’s game, but his speed may limit the deep ball. Gabriel should be considered a middling WR4 whose target share is typically good enough to consider.

Anthony Miller: He’s been targeted just three times over the last three games combined which makes little sense considering how far he was coming along in the offense. Week 14-15 was the first time he went two games without scoring a touchdown. Seriously, that’s crazy, right? If there’s a matchup to get him back involved, this is it. The 49ers have had K’Waun Williams sidelined the last two weeks, which has led to rookie D.J. Reed covering the slot. He’s allowed 10 catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 targets in coverage. Williams himself hasn’t been great, either, allowing a 112.8 QB Rating in his coverage. It’s impossible to trust Miller in season-long leagues with his recent disappearing act in targets, but he’s an interesting tournament play, especially if Williams misses another week.

Dante Pettis: He’s now seen at least five targets in five straight games and has totaled at least 83 yards and/or a touchdown in the last four games. It’s quite the surge over the final month, though he runs into a tough test this week. The Bears play heavy man-coverage, which is something that Pettis hasn’t fared as well with this year. He’s caught 7-of-10 passes for 178 yards and three touchdowns against zone, while catching 17-of-30 passes for 268 yard and two touchdowns in man coverage. He’ll see a mixture of Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller, who have been one of the better duos in football, though they have allowed a top-25 receiver in each of their last six games. They’ve played some serious talent over that stretch (Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Odell Beckham, Kenny Golladay twice, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen), so to know that just two top-12 receivers should be considered an achievement. As a whole, the Bears defense has allowed the seventh-most yards to wide receivers (171.6/game), so Pettis remains on the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 radar as the only playable receiver on the 49ers roster.

TEs
Trey Burton: We had a Burton sighting last week, as he finished as the TE3 against the Packers. It’s maddening, though, as he’s now seen at least five targets in three of the last five games but has seen just one target in the other two games. He also hasn’t topped 40 yards since way back in Week 7, so we aren’t automatically going to just let him back into the must-play TE1 conversation. The 49ers have allowed a combined four catches for 21 scoreless yards to the last three starting tight ends they’ve played. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 6 to find the last time they allowed a tight end more than 46 yards. The 538 yards they’ve allowed to tight end on the season ranks as the fifth-lowest and they haven’t allowed a touchdown to them since way back in Week 5. We all know touchdowns are volatile, as are tight ends, but this matchup isn’t one where Burton is a clear, knockout-type play. He should be considered a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

George Kittle: While playing with Mullens, Kittle has caught 35-of-53 targets for 570 yards and two touchdowns in six games. There are just 10 tight ends who have more yardage than that on the entire season. He’s now just 66 yards off Travis Kelce for the most yards at the position. Think about that… he has 26 fewer targets than Zach Ertz but has 116 more yards. The Bears have been a thorn in tight ends’ side this year, allowing just 5.89 yards per target (2nd-lowest) and a 62.4 percent completion-rate (6th-lowest), but Kittle is likely getting a break here as Pro Bowl safety Eddie Jackson is not expected to play after spraining his ankle last week. That makes the matchup much more appealing, as 2016 fourth-round pick Deon Bush who has played 461 career snaps will be taking his place. You’re playing Kittle as a high-end TE1 every week and this matchup is now better than it looks on paper, even if it’s still not necessarily great.