Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 45.0
Line: EVEN
QBs
Deshaun Watson: This was a matchup many were looking forward to with Watson, as the Eagles had seemingly lost the season and were playing backups at all three cornerback positions. Then things got a bit more complicated when they shut-down Jared Goff Sunday night, limiting him to just 339 yards and no touchdowns on 54 pass attempts. They also faced 54 pass attempts the week prior but allowed 455 yards and three touchdowns on them to Dak Prescott, so you can’t overreact to just one good/bad performance. Truth be told, the Eagles defense has done quite well when you consider the injuries they’ve had to deal with. Did you realize they rank third in the NFL with a 3.58 percent touchdown-rate? The fact that they’ve seen 558 pass attempts (third-most) makes them appear worse than they are, but much of it is volume-derived. That’s a bit of an issue for Watson, as he’s topped 28 pass attempts just twice since Week 5. His favorite target (Hopkins), however, has a great matchup which should provide him with a solid touchdown-floor. The Eagles have played against four mobile quarterbacks and here’s what they were able to total on the ground (yards/touchdowns): Marcus Mariota 46/1, Cam Newton 49/0, Dak Prescott 9/1, and Blake Bortles 43/0. Looking at that, you essentially have an additional passing touchdown added to Watson’s stats. Watson should be able to deliver a top-15 floor in this game with upside for more if he’s allowed to pass more than usual, making him a low-end QB1.
Nick Foles: Why do I keep on hearing that Foles led the Eagles to a victory last week and that “it” is happening again? Their defense won them that game while Foles did a decent job managing the offense. Let’s not pretend he’s the savior. The pass-rush of the Texans pass-rush has let them down over the last three weeks, as they’ve ranked as the fourth-worst unit in sack-percentage. That’s why we’ve started to see the secondary leak production, as they don’t have the talent to hang with receivers for more than a few seconds. Over the last four weeks they’ve allowed 338.0 passing yards per game with 1.8 touchdown passes. The Eagles offensive line has allowed just two sacks over the last three games, so Foles should have time to pass, though I’m not entirely convinced he’s going to do more than give his wide receivers 50/50 balls, which can (obviously) go either way. He’s essentially the same quarterback when under pressure (83.8 QB Rating) as he is when he’s kept clean (81.1 QB Rating), which explains a lot. The Texans secondary definitely has some holes, but not enough for me to trust Foles as anything more than a middling to low-end QB2 in the fantasy championship.
RBs
Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue: After suffering an ankle injury in the win over the Jets, Miller is out for this game. It’s unsure what that means, though, as the Texans could choose to use more of a timeshare than they have been. If you don’t believe that it’s been a timeshare, here’s your proof: Over the last four games, Miller has 48 carries while Blue has 41 carries. If the Texans decide to make D’Onta Foreman active for this game, it would create an even bigger question mark. It stinks because the Eagles have been a team to attack with running backs over the last month and a half. They’ve now allowed 5.72 yards per carry and 10 total touchdowns to running backs over their last six games. This is going to sound crazy, but they’ve allowed a top-five running back performance in five of their last six games. If Miller returns to a full practice by the end of the week and Foreman is declared inactive, he should be played as a high-end RB2. If Miller can’t go for whatever reason, Blue becomes an intriguing RB3 option who’d likely share work with Foreman. Update: Miller has been ruled out for this game, Blue should be considered a semi-high floor RB3 for this game.
Josh Adams, Wendell Smallwood, and Darren Sproles: Even in a game they led throughout, the Eagles chose to split carries between Adams and Smallwood, though it was Smallwood who performed the best. After two weeks of 40 and 41 snaps in Weeks 12-13, Adams has played just 21 and 24 snaps over the last two weeks. Now playing against the Texans, he’s not a very appealing option in Week 16. They’ve now held six straight teams of running backs to 75 or less rushing yards against them, including 56 or less yards in each of the last five games. That’s horrid territory for a running back who’s playing 20-25 snaps per game and one who’s seen two targets over the last four weeks. Adams should be considered a weak RB3 option for this game who’ll need to score in order to not completely bust. Smallwood has done this act before and we should know better than to trust him in a matchup like this, making him an unappealing RB4 who could very well touch the ball 6-8 times this week. Sproles has totaled seven targets the last two weeks, which isn’t a ton, but the Texans have allowed at least 50 yards through the air to running backs in three of their last four games, at least putting him on the RB4 radar for PPR leagues. As a whole, this timeshare is unappealing in a matchup against the Texans who’ve allowed a max of 22.8 PPR points to a team of running backs over the last six games.
WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: If the Texans want to use their top-guy this week, he’ll be ready and available when matched up against the Eagles cornerbacks. We saw Amari Cooper give them a tutorial on how to get roasted a few weeks back, as he totaled 10/217/3 against them. Hopkins will primarily see Rasul Douglas in coverage, a third-round pick from last year’s draft who’s allowed 484 yards and two touchdowns on 53 targets in coverage this year. He’s got the size to hang with Hopkins at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, but his flaws in technique are glaring when targeted on the deep ball. Over the last two weeks, he’s allowed 16-of-23 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins is an elite WR1 play once again this week and one who should be the standout from the Texans team.
Demaryius Thomas: With Coutee out the last two weeks, Thomas has seen 14 targets, turning them into 10 catches for 107 yards, so he’s on the fantasy radar in this matchup against the Eagles who’ve been forced to turn to three backup cornerbacks. Thomas will see Avonte Maddox most of the time, a fourth-round rookie who’s been forced into playing time. He’s coming off his best game yet, as he allowed just 1-of-6 passing to the Rams last week and even snagged his second interception. It’s still too small of a sample size to judge him, but Thomas should be able to use his veteran instincts to take advantage of body positioning. It seems like Coutee should be back for this game which would lower Thomas’ target floor, though he remains on the WR4/5 radar in a plus-matchup.
Keke Coutee: I mentioned three weeks ago that when Coutee injured his hamstring for a third time this year, he was droppable. After missing last week, he’s likely on waivers in a lot of leagues and it’s tough to completely overlook him considering his stats in the complete games he’s played, as he’s totaled 15, 7, 5, and 9 targets in the four full games he’s played. The matchup will likely be with Cre’Von LeBlanc who has been halfway decent in coverage this year. Coming off a multi-week absence, Coutee simply comes with too much risk in this matchup, though he should still provide a stable WR5 floor if he gets in a full practice by the end of the week. Update: Coutee was declared out for this game.
Alshon Jeffery: So, all Jeffery needs is a tough matchup with Aqib Talib and Nick Foles under center in order to have a big game, eh? His eight catches and 160 yards were both season-highs, as he balled-out on Sunday night, playing as well as he has all year. The Texans don’t have that type of cornerback talent, as they’ve been shredded over the last four weeks. They finally decided to move Shareece Wright on the bench, which is a step in the right direction as he’d allowed two touchdowns on his last 11 targets in coverage and was a liability. I’d expect Aaron Colvin to return as the starter this week, though it’s important to note that he’s played just 53 snaps since returning from his ankle injury in Week 4. It’s possible that it’s still bothering him, which is why we may have seen more Wright than they’d like. Whatever the case, Jeffery’s matchup this week isn’t a bad one, and Foles proved capable of providing him with opportunities. Jeffery should be considered a high-end WR3 for this game due to the questionable quarterback play.
Golden Tate: In the first game with Foles under center, Tate saw five targets, which is very high considering he was on the field for just 22-of-64 snaps. Through his six games with the Eagles, he’s failed to play more than 39 snaps, but has just three fewer targets than Jeffery, who has played 185 more snaps than him. When he’s on the field, the Eagles have been somewhat predictable. The duo of Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu cover the slot for the Texans, and they’ve combined to allow 43-of-65 passing for 404 yards and one touchdown. Those are some solid numbers in coverage, as it amounts to just 6.2 yards per target. It’s tough to say Tate is anything more than a low-upside WR4 option who plays minimal snaps.
TEs
Ryan Griffin: This is another team who has far too much of a timeshare to even consider one option. While Griffin had five targets two weeks ago, he had just one target in Week 15 while running just 19 routes. Fortunately, you don’t have to be tempted to play one of them against the Eagles, who’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends this year. There’s been just one top-12 against them all season and it was to O.J. Howard, who scored a 75-yard touchdown, something Griffin can only dream about. Don’t stream a Texans tight end.
Zach Ertz: The game with Foles didn’t go as planned, but you shouldn’t take that to heart, as he’s played well with Foles over the last two years. In the eight games they played together, he averaged 9.1 targets, 6.3 receptions, 57.8 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. It amounts to 14.3 PPR points while Ertz has averaged 16.6 with Carson Wentz. His efficiency dips, but he’s actually seen slightly more targets per game with Foles. The Texans have struggled with tight ends this year, as there’s been seven different ones who’ve been able to post top-eight numbers against them. All in all, they’ve allowed the seventh-most receptions and yards to tight ends, so it’s not just the seven touchdowns they’ve allowed to them.
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 46.5
Line: IND by 9.0
QBs
Eli Manning: Everyone went from “Eli is going to make the 2019 roster because of the way he’s playing,” to “Eli should be cut tomorrow” after his terrible outing against the Titans defense last week. He completed just 47.7 percent of his passes for 229 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception, though he was without Beckham and the rain was coming down rather heavily at times. Still, it was bad enough where Pat Shurmur needed to come out and say that Manning will start in Week 16. The Colts are not a team you want to run into right now, as they’ve held seven of the last eight quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 270 yards, and they’ve allowed just one passing touchdown over their last three games. While Cody Kessler was a pushover, Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott were both playing quite well coming into their games with the Colts. As a whole, the Colts schedule has been extremely weak when it comes to quarterbacks they’ve faced, but Manning belongs in that weak conversation. He’s a nine-point road underdog who’s coming off a 5.1-point fantasy game. You don’t want to put your fantasy life in his hands.
Andrew Luck: After throwing for three or more touchdowns in eight straight games, which was the second-longest streak of all-time, Luck has thrown two touchdowns over the last three weeks combined. It’s disappointing for sure, as his matchup with the Giants isn’t a great one, either. They’ve allowed just three top-10 performances to quarterbacks all season, with just one of them coming in their last eight games. Part of the reason is because no team has thrown more than 40 attempts against them all season. Their efficiency has been fine, though they haven’t been tested since the loss of Landon Collins, as that hurts the overall play of their defense. They’ve allowed a pedestrian 7.5 yards per attempt on the season, which ranks right in the middle of the league, but their lack of pressure is going to be an issue. Their sack-rate is just 5.1 percent, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, while Luck has been sacked just six times in his last nine games. If they can’t generate pressure, he’ll eat them up. If you’ve trusted Luck this long, it’s hard to waver now. The matchup isn’t ideal, but the losses of Eli Apple, Damon Harrison, and Collins have to add-up at some point. Luck should be played as a middling to low-end QB1 who should get back on track.
RBs
Saquon Barkley: We knew it would be a tough matchup against the Titans, but it was by far the worst game of Barkley’s career, as it was the first time he was held below 94 total yards from scrimmage. Shake it off as a bad game during a bad week of fantasy football. The Colts aren’t much more friendly to running backs on the ground, though there’s plenty of room for production through the air. The Colts have still held every running back they’ve played to less than 100 yards on the ground, including Ezekiel Elliott last week. Fortunately, Barkley is very involved in the passing-game, as the Colts have allowed the second-most receptions (100), sixth-most yards (758), and 16th-most receiving touchdowns (3) to running backs this year. That all adds up to the fifth-most PPR points to running backs through the air and an average of 13.8 PPR points per game through the air alone. So, even though they’ve yet to allow a 100-yard running back, they’ve allowed seven top-10 PPR performances this year to them. Barkley needs to be in lineups as a rock-solid RB1 who should be heavily utilized in the passing-game.
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: Just after most wanted to leave him for dead, Mack goes off and posts 149 total yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys defense who’d been playing lights out run-defense. Mack had faced a brutal stretch of defenses that included the Jaguars twice, Titans, and Texans, all top-10 teams against the run at that time. The brutal stretch ends this week, as he’ll play the Giants leaky run-defense that’s allowed 897 rushing yards (128.1 per game) and seven touchdowns in the seven games since trading defensive tackle Damon Harrison. The only team who didn’t total at least 114 yards on the ground was the Redskins, who have had issues running the ball over the entire second-half of the season. With Mack locked into 15-plus touches in this game, he’s teetering on the RB1 radar as gamescript should go in his favor while at home and favored by nine points. Hines has seen 20 targets over the last three weeks, so combining that with his 13 carries, you’re looking at 11 opportunities per game against a struggling defense. He lacks upside as Luck shouldn’t need to check-down much in this game, but he should provide a somewhat stable RB4 floor in PPR formats.
WRs
Odell Beckham: After missing the last two weeks with a bruised quad, we don’t know if Beckham will play this week, though they’re saying he’s “improving” and doing everything he can to be on the field in Week 16. To be fair, this is the same thing we heard last week before he was ruled out multiple days before the game actually took place, which tells us he wasn’t all that close. Over the last eight weeks, the Colts secondary has not allowed the combination of top three wide receivers and top tight end to total more than 177 yards against them. To clarify, if you added Beckham, Shepard, the other Shepard, and Engram, the Colts wouldn’t have allowed them to more than 177 yards combined if their recent trend holds true. Over the last five games, they’ve held Amari Cooper to 4/32/0 on seven targets, DeAndre Hopkins to 4/36/1 on 10 targets, and Corey Davis to 2/30/0 on four targets. Clearly, something they’re doing is working. Beckham obviously needs to be played if he’s active, but he’s not likely to post elite WR1 numbers. You should dial back expectations against a Colts defense that’s trending up. Update: Beckham has been ruled out for this game.
Sterling Shepard: Over the last two games with Beckham out, Shepard has seen a respectable 15 targets, though they’ve netted just four catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. The weather was terrible last game, so it’s tough to blame Shepard, as Manning’s passes were almost always off-target. The Colts have Kenny Moore in the slot, who’s done a fine job this year, allowing just 8.1 yards per reception and two touchdowns on 77 targets in his coverage. We haven’t seen a slot receiver tally 50 yards against the Colts since back in Week 6, making it a matchup to seemingly avoid for Shepard, especially when you combine it with the fact that he’s failed to top 37 yards in every game since Week 7. He’s nothing more than a WR5 in this game.
T.Y. Hilton: After not practicing the entire week, Hilton went out and put on a show against the Cowboys secondary, routinely getting separation en route to a five-catch, 85-yard performance in one of the tougher matchups for wide receivers. The Giants aren’t using Janoris Jenkins in shadow coverage, so Hilton will see a mix of all three cornerbacks they have to offer. Jenkins and B.W. Webb are more physical cornerbacks than finesse ones, or ones who have great make-up speed, so Hilton should be just fine against them. Overall, the Giants secondary has outperformed expectations, as they’ve allowed just 10 wide receiver touchdowns (4th-fewest in the NFL) and 2,128 wide receiver yards (10th-fewest in NFL). Part of that has to do with the lack of targets, as they’ve seen just 17.9 targets per game, which is tied for the ninth-fewest in the league. But Hilton and Luck should press the ball downfield, as the Giants current safety duo includes two formerly undrafted free agents who have virtually no experience playing together. Hilton should be in lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 despite the tough look on paper (Giants have allowed the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers).
Zach Pascal: It appears he’s the No. 2 receiver on the Colts right now, as he’s played 84 snaps over the last two weeks, which ranks second to only Hilton’s 95 snaps. The issue is that he’s seen just eight targets, which isn’t enough to feel confident in him, especially when you consider Dontrelle Inman was out in Week 14, which was when Pascal saw six of those eight targets. It’s a timeshare after Hilton between Pascal, Inman, Ryan Grant, and Chester Rogers, so you should be looking elsewhere in season-long, as none of them are guaranteed more than two targets. On top of that, the Giants have allowed just seven top-24 wide receiver performances all year.
TEs
Evan Engram: With Beckham out the last two weeks, we’ve seen Engram much more involved, as he leads the team with 17 targets in those games (yes, more than Shepard and Barkley). He’s totaled 11 catches for 152 yards in those games, and though he didn’t find the end zone in them, he had two brutal matchups with the Redskins and Titans, who both rank top-eight against tight ends. The Colts aren’t as scary, as they’ve allowed more yards to tight ends (1,017) than any other team in the NFL. They’ve also allowed the second-most receptions (88) to them, so it’d be wise for the Giants to attack that part of the field. They’ve now allowed 10 different tight ends finish as top-15 options against them, which gives Engram the floor you want with your tight ends. The Colts have allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends, so those stats just go to show that a touchdown would be icing on the cake. Engram is a rock-solid TE1 play if Beckham misses this game but is still a low-end TE1 even if he does play.
Eric Ebron: There are a lot of Ebron owners out there who are wondering what went wrong with their star TE1 last week, as he saw just three targets and finished with his second-worst performance of the season. He had an ugly drop on one of his targets, while getting lit-up on another. He played just 52.8 percent of the snaps, so it’s possible that he was dealing with more than the Colts have let-on, though the gamescript didn’t require his receiving chops and he’s not much of a run-blocker. The Giants haven’t had much competition the last three weeks (Luke Stocker, Vernon Davis, Trey Burton), but prior to that, they’d allowed Zach Ertz 7/91/1, O.J. Howard 5/78/0, and George Kittle 9/83/0. The loss of Landon Collins also doesn’t help, as safeties and linebackers are often the ones who are left covering tight ends. Ebron should be back in lineups as a high-end TE1 provided he’s practicing in-full by the end of the week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Total: 45.5
Line: CLE by 7.0
QBs
Jeff Driskel: For those who’ve wondered whether Driskel could steal the job from Andy Dalton, the answer is an easy “no.” He’s completed just 74-of-126 passes (58.7 percent) for 691 yards (5.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and two interceptions since taking over for Dalton, bad enough for a 77.8 QB Rating. Even worse, he hasn’t used his legs very much, as he’s totaled just 47 yards and no touchdowns over the last three weeks. The Browns defense has slowed down a bit as the year’s gone on which likely has to do with the fact that they’ve been on the field for 71.6 plays per game, which is 2.4 more plays per game than any other team in the league. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, they still haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish better than the QB12 since Week 7, and that’s despite missing Denzel Ward the last two weeks. On top of that, Driskel is down to John Ross, Alex Erickson, and Cody Core as his starting receivers. Yuck. Even with the likely increased play-count, you can’t trust Driskel outside of 2QB leagues, and even then, he’s not too appealing unless he starts using his legs. The Browns have allowed the 17th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, so not much is guaranteed there.
Baker Mayfield: His volume has been scaled back over the last five weeks, as he’s totaled 31 attempts or less in four of those games, limiting his overall upside. In that time, he’s tallied 9.1 yards per attempt, completed 71.1 percent of his passes, and thrown 11 touchdowns, so there’s little reason to change. The last time the Browns and Bengals met, Mayfield “felt dangerous” and threw for 258 yards and four touchdowns on just 26 attempts. It’s going to be tougher the second-time around, as divisional matchups usually are. The Bengals have allowed just one passing touchdown in each of their last three games since then and haven’t allowed more than 263 yards passing. It’s worth noting that they’ve played Case Keenum, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr in those games, though. The Bengals allow their opponents 68.0 plays per game, which ranks as the third-most, so this game should net a lot of plays for both sides, as the Browns allow a league-high 71.6 plays per game. With Chubb running as well as he is, he’ll take some of the wind out of Mayfield’s wings, but he should still be considered a middling to high-end QB2 who comes with a solid floor at home.
RBs
Joe Mixon: I’d be nice to say that I can tell you what way the Bengals will use Mixon, but truth be told, it’s hard to have much conviction when there’s no consistency in his usage. After catching seven passes in Week 12, he caught two in Week 13. After catching five passes in Week 14, he caught two passes in Week 15. The good news is that he’s totaled a massive 53 carries over the last two weeks as the team has been dedicated to the run. The result of that? 240 yards and three touchdowns. The Browns are a team Mixon played really well against back in Week 12 when he touched the ball 21 times for 155 yards, though he didn’t score. The Browns been a bit hit-or-miss themselves, as they’ve allowed four of their last seven opponents to rush for at least 99 yards, while holding the three other teams to 68 yards or less. Over the last two weeks, the combination of Christian McCaffrey and Philip Lindsay were able to muster up just 87 yards on 30 carries, though McCaffrey found the end zone twice. When you see a team who’s been as hit-or-miss as the Browns, it tells us that they aren’t a clear avoid, but rather a team that steps-up from time-to-time. They’ll be at home and playing against a Bengals team who’s likely to be without Tyler Boyd, as well as A.J. Green, so it’s easy to figure out who they must stop. Mixon should be in line for a lot of work, but the Browns should be prepared for it. He’s a high-end RB2 who you should expect to get more work in the passing-game with Boyd unlikely to play.
Nick Chubb: After a few low-carry games from Chubb in Weeks 13-14, he got back on track last week with 20 carries that went for an even 100 yards. It was the sixth time in eight games the Browns have given him at least 18 carries since the Carlos Hyde trade. Against the Bengals, you’ll want him in your lineup and not your opponents. The Bengals face an average of 23.8 carries per game and seeing Chubb tallies 90.8 percent of the carries (148 of 163) since the Hyde trade, he’s going to get a big workload. Keep in mind that those carries per game against the Bengals includes when they were actually able to move the ball on offense and not allow their opponents to dominate time of possession. On the year, the Bengals have really struggled to defend the run, as they’ve now allowed 1,531 yards (5.14 yards per carry) and 13 touchdowns over their last 12 games. For those who are counting at home, that’s nearly 130 rushing yards and 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game. With Chubb running as well as he is, this could be a massive game. He’s an elite RB1 this week and one who should be in your DFS lineups.
WRs
Tyler Boyd: It appears unlikely he’ll play this week after suffering a low-grade MCL sprain this past week. With nothing to play for (outside of maybe Marvin Lewis’ job), it’s hard to see him out there. Update: He’s been ruled out for this week.
John Ross: He’s still failed to top three receptions in any one game, which is somewhat insane considering A.J. Green has essentially missed the last six games. Ross isn’t connecting with Driskel, as he’s caught just five passes for 30 yards and one touchdown in his three starts combined. With Boyd likely missing this week, we should see six-plus targets for Ross, though he’s seen that four times this year, and none of the games netted more than 39 yards. You’re essentially hoping for a long touchdown from him which is possible considering his 18.6-yard average depth of target from last week, but that’d require him and Driskel to get in-sync. The Browns haven’t been particularly susceptible to the long-ball, as they’ve allowed eight 40-plus yard passing plays this season, which ranks as the 14th-most. The Browns have been without Denzel Ward the last two weeks due to a concussion, which seems to be a potential I.R. situation. As of the time I’m writing this, he still hasn’t been cleared to resume practicing. That’s an upgrade to Ross’ matchup and the increased targets are nice, but he’s still hard to play as anything more than a low-end WR4.
Alex Erickson: If Boyd were to miss this week (like I’m expecting), Erickson would be the one to fill the slot role in the offense. He filled-in when Boyd went down last week and totaled 3/23/0 on five targets. Driskel has targeted a slot receiver 20 times over the last three weeks, so there’s potential volume with Erickson, though he’s just a formerly undrafted free agent who has 30 career receptions. The Browns did allow DaeSean Hamilton 7/46/0 on 12 targets last week, which wouldn’t be a bad target for Erickson to get to, though he’s not going to see 12 targets. In the Week 12 game between these two teams, Boyd saw eight targets that amounted to 7/85/1, so the Bengals did see holes on that part of the field. Erickson is on the WR5 radar, especially in PPR formats.
Jarvis Landry: The good news – Landry saw eight targets in Week 15, his second-most under Freddie Kitchens. The bad news – he went back to his inefficient ways, totaling just three catches for 37 yards. Will the real Jarvis Landry please stand up? The last meeting with the Bengals didn’t produce the results he’d like, as his five targets netted just 3/30/0 in a plus-matchup. Slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard had been out from Week 7-10, but returned in Week 11 and has since allowed 13-of-17 passing for 163 yards but no touchdowns. He’s not an elite talent that you need to stay away from, as four of his five NFL seasons have netted a 108-plus QB Rating in-coverage. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I know which Landry we’ll get in Week 16, but I will tell you that it’s a winnable matchup for him and that it’s very unlikely the Browns come out with the same gameplan they did last time, which is beneficial for Landry. He should be played as a high-end WR3 against the Bengals.
Antonio Callaway: This matchup was kind to Callaway last time, though it’s hard to say you should be expecting that again. The combination of William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick have teamed-up to allow just 10-of-22 passing for 96 scoreless yards over the last five games. Kirkpatrick missed the Week 12 meeting between the two teams and his replacement, Darius Phillips, allowed two touchdowns in his coverage, with one going to Callaway. We’re seeing a three-man rotation behind Landry, as both Rashard Higgins and Breshad Perriman are both playing significant snaps. It’s unlikely the Browns need to throw the ball a whole lot this week, so tread lightly with Callaway. He’s nothing more than a WR5 this week.
TEs
C.J. Uzomah: Could there be a story of a less-efficient tight end than Uzomah? Apparently, the answer to this question is yes because of the 52 tight ends who’ve seen at least 20 targets, Uzomah ranks 38th in PPR points per target. For those who are curious (I would be), Charles Clay and Ricky Seals-Jones are the least-efficient tight ends. He’s getting targets and the Browns have been dreadful against tight ends once again, as they’ve now allowed the fourth-most PPR points to the position, though, to be fair, they’ve seen 131 targets, which is 18 more than any other team. The last time these two teams met, Uzomah saw a season-high 12 targets, netting six catches for 39 yards. While that’s not great, it’s enough to finish as a top-12 tight end most of the time. He’s seen at least five targets in four of the last five games and with Boyd likely out, that number is likely to rise. When you have a tight end in a plus-matchup who is going to likely see six-plus targets, he’s streaming material. Consider him a high-end TE2.
David Njoku: Speaking of inefficient tight ends (see: Uzomah above), Njoku ranks 39th in PPR points per target of the 52 tight ends who’ve seen 20 or more targets. He’s scored just one touchdown since Week 7 and has been extremely frustrating to project for fantasy owners. He has tallied at least 30 yards in nine of his last 12 games, but his ceiling has been 69 yards during that time. Since Hue Jackson was fired, Njoku hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game, though he’s been in the 4-6 target range nearly every week. The last touchdown he did score was against the Bengals in Week 12 when he caught all five of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Since that time, the Bengals have allowed just 4/42/0 to the next three starting tight ends (Matt LaCosse, Antonio Gates, and Jared Cook) combined. On the season, the Bengals have allowed a 75 percent catch-rate (3rd-highest) and a touchdown every 12.0 targets (5th-most often) to tight ends, so it’s definitely not a horrible matchup. Njoku isn’t a must-play, but it’s unlikely there are better options on the waiver wire. Consider him a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Total: 43.5
Line: ATL by 3.5
QBs
Matt Ryan: So, after the Cardinals hadn’t allowed a quarterback to finish better than QB10 for 14 weeks, they allow Ryan to finish as the QB1 in Week 15. Fantasy football wins, yet again. Now onto a divisional matchup with the Panthers, who just shut-down the Saints offense on Monday night. They’ve now held Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston to less than 250 yards in each of their last three games, with Brees and Mayfield combining for just one touchdown the last two weeks. Being a divisional game, we have some history, though we like to keep these short because there’s a lot of turnover on NFL rosters, though this is still the Ron Riviera defense. Over the last two games in Carolina, Ryan has totaled 313/2/1 and 277/2/0, so it wasn’t as if he bombed the last few trips. The Panthers loss to the Saints essentially ended their playoff hopes, so this game comes down to nothing more than pride between two divisional rivals. The Panthers had allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight straight games before they’ve held three of the last five quarterbacks to one or less passing scores, so there’s a bit of a mystery to them. Overall, they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including a healthy 67.6 percent completion-rate and a 5.7 percent touchdown-rate. Ryan has totaled at least 19.3 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games with the only exceptions coming against the Ravens and Cowboys, two teams who rank top-eight at defending quarterbacks. Ryan should be played as a low-end QB1.
Taylor Heinicke: If you made it through the Monday night meltdown with Cam Newton, congrats. He played horrifically the last two weeks, completing just 42-of-71 passes for 396 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. So, does the move to Heinicke really hurt the offense? Well, yes. The threat of Newton running the ball will completely change the way the defense prepares. The Falcons defense has played according to the level of competition over the last month, as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees combined for 36-of-54 passing for 367 yards and six touchdowns, while Lamar Jackson/Robert Griffin/Josh Rosen/Mike Glennon combined for 37-of-61 passing for 389 yards and one touchdown. It’s fair to say Heinicke will be part of the latter group. Rosen was just the third starting quarterback to finish outside the top-15 fantasy options against the Falcons, but Heinicke isn’t someone you should consider playing this week.
RBs
Tevin Coleman: With news that Ito Smith went to injured reserve, Coleman walks back into a featured role with only Brian Hill on the depth chart behind him. He’s coming off what might be his best performance of the season when he tallied 145 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries against the Falcons, which doesn’t even show another long touchdown run he had that was called back due to a questionable penalty. The Panthers aren’t going to be an easy task, as they’d held eight straight teams under 100 yards rushing before allowing the Saints running backs to combine for 136 yards last week. They haven’t been a dominant run-defense that needs to be avoided at all costs like the Bears, Ravens, or Titans, but they’ve been solid. Oddly enough, Coleman is the only running back who totaled 100 rushing yards against them this season, which came way back in Week 2 when these two teams met, though he didn’t score. Maybe he gets that touchdown this week, as the Panthers have allowed a rushing touchdown in six straight games, and seven of the last eight. It’s not a crush spot for Coleman, but he should see a minimum of 15 touches, making him a middling to low-end RB2.
Christian McCaffrey: It’s really odd that the Panthers’ six-game skid seems to have coincided with McCaffrey’s ascension to elite status. Typically, when you can run the ball well, you win football games. It’s not on him, as he’s done everything he can during that span, and will likely continue to do against the Falcons this week. The Falcons have been terrible at defending pass-catching backs under Dan Quinn, as they allowed the 2nd-most receptions to running backs in 2016 and have allowed the most receptions to running backs in both 2017 and 2018. The 128 targets, 106 receptions, and 879 yards allowed to running backs this year all rank top in the league. They’ve also allowed 4.68 yards per carry on the ground, so you can beat them in multiple ways. Over their last six games, they’ve allowed a robust 5.06 yards per carry, so they’re not getting any better. McCaffrey had just eight carries in the first game against them, tallying 37 yards on them, while hauling in a career-high 14 receptions for 102 yards. The loss of Cam Newton isn’t going to help, as it’ll allow the Falcons to add an extra defender against McCaffrey, as they don’t have to have the dedicated QB spy like they would against Newton. You rode him to a fantasy title match this week, but the loss of Newton is going to hurt more than most realize. He’s still an RB1 but his ceiling took a big hit.
WRs
Julio Jones: After not scoring a touchdown over the first seven games, Jones now has six touchdowns in his last seven games. Did you know there’s been just one game all season Jones hasn’t totaled at least 11.2 PPR points? Or how about that he’s scored 20 or more PPR points in 9-of-14 games? He’s the fantasy MVP at wide receiver when you consider his consistency (only Davante Adams compares). The Panthers will have James Bradberry attempt to shadow him, something that hasn’t worked out well in his career against Jones. On the season, Bradberry has allowed five touchdowns on 89 targets, which also includes 14.1 yards per reception. His numbers will naturally be inflated because he’s often asked to cover top receivers, but these numbers don’t scare you off Jones. There have been six wide receivers to record 100-yard games against the Panthers this year, so the upside is there as well. Start Jones as you typically would, though considering Bradberry’s above-average skill-set, you don’t have to play Jones in cash games. Update: Jones has been given the game-time decision label this week, so you’ll need to pay attention to the inactive lists that come out 1.5 hours prior to the game, though I’d expect Jones to suit up.
Calvin Ridley: We’ve seen flashes of the player Ridley can become, though the dominance of Julio has limited his upside in his rookie season. The last time they played the Panthers, Ridley tagged rookie Donte Jackson for 64 yards and a touchdown. He’s a ball-hawk in coverage, but his coverage skills aren’t what you’d call great. He’s allowed a massive 73.1 percent catch-rate, which is pretty bad for a perimeter cornerback, while also allowing 13.3 yards per reception. With James Bradberry matched-up with Jones, we could see Ridley as more of a focal-point this week, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR4 as he’s failed to top 42 yards in five of the last six games.
Mohamed Sanu: He’s not someone who’s going to win you a fantasy championship, but if you have a bunch of guys on your roster who already do give you that opportunity and just need someone who won’t lose it, Sanu has delivered a solid floor most weeks. Some of the biggest performances against the Panthers this year have gone to slot-heavy receivers, as Adam Humphries posted 8/82/2 and 7/61/1, while Tyler Boyd posted 6/132/1 against them. Captain Munnerlyn is the cornerback he’ll see most of the game, and despite the Panthers mediocre play over the middle of the field, they held Sanu to just 2/19/0 in the first matchup, though he saw just two targets in that game. He’s now seen at least four targets in every game since Week 7, including six or more targets in four of the last six games. With Ito Smith out, the team will have to disperse some of those touches elsewhere, so Sanu’s role as a high-floor low-end WR4 should be safe.
D.J. Moore: How much faith do you have in the Panthers pass-catchers after watching them Monday night? Now going to Heinicke, you have very little faith. Moore is a solid player and it’s fun to watch him with the ball in his hands, but he needs Heinicke to get it there. The Falcons oddly haven’t been a team who’s been one to attack with receivers over the last six games, as they haven’t allowed a receiver to top 82 yards in that time, which included matchups with Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, and Amari Cooper. Adams was the only one who found the end zone and was one of two top-20 receivers they’ve allowed in that time (Larry Fitzgerald was the other). The Falcons have allowed six wide receiver touchdowns over the last four weeks, propping up the overall numbers they’ve allowed, but they’re not the easy matchup they were earlier in the year. Moore has shown enough after the catch to stay in the WR3/4 conversation, just don’t expect a massive performance to make up for his dud in Week 15.
Curtis Samuel: The good news is that he stayed in a full-time role in Week 15, but the bad news is that he finished with just one catch for 17 yards on four targets. He also added two carries for eight yards, but it was quite the departure from his 19 targets over the previous two weeks. As mentioned in Moore notes, the Falcons have allowed just two top-20 performances to wide receivers over the last six weeks. He’s going to see a mixture of Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford, and Brian Poole in coverage, so there’s not one specific matchup we can look at. One downside is that the Falcons have allowed just 39 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. Samuel can always pop back up on the WR2/3 radar this week, but you shouldn’t feel the need to start him as anything outside of a risky WR4 with Heinicke under center and the way the Falcons secondary is playing.
TEs
Austin Hooper: After being questionable all week with a knee injury, Hooper was cleared to play but wound up dropping his lone target and playing just 34-of-67 snaps. That’s just 50.7 percent of the snaps, which is a season-low for him, so it’s possible that knee is still an issue. It’s a shame because the Panthers are a matchup we’ve aimed for with tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-most points to them this year and it’s not just because of touchdowns, either. The lone thing you can tell yourself to talk your way out of playing Hooper is the fact that the Panthers have made strides in the right direction as of late, allowing no more than 36 yards to any of the last five tight ends they’ve played, which did include Cameron Brate and David Njoku. The recent injury and dip in snaps is concerning enough for me to downgrade his ranking and it doesn’t help that the Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends over the last four weeks. He’s just a risky TE2 in a matchup that should’ve been better.
Ian Thomas: You can’t say I didn’t warn you about Thomas’ brutal matchup last week, though we couldn’t expect Newton to throw for just 131 yards and no touchdowns, either. Thomas saw 4-of-29 targets, so it’s not the worst-case scenario, as he has now seen 20 of Newton’s 112 targets over the last three weeks which amounts to a high 17.9 percent target share. With quarterbacks averaging 35.0 pass attempts against the Falcons, that would amount to 6.3 targets if Thomas’ target share remains the same under Heinicke. Of the 10 tight ends who’ve seen at least four targets against the Falcons, six of them have finished as top-12 options. They’ve continually gotten better as a secondary as the year’s gone-on and have allowed just one top-12 performance over the last six weeks, so it’s not a can’t-miss spot. He’s still in the TE2 conversation this week but my guess is that you can find a better play.