Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Total: 51.5
Line: PIT by 11.0
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: He hasn’t been great over the last three weeks (5 touchdowns, 6 interceptions), but is it possible the Raiders are his cure? We know it’s a road game and those haven’t been kind to Roethlisberger over the last five years, but we also know that there’ve been just four quarterbacks who didn’t finish as a top-15 fantasy option against the Raiders. Most teams don’t have to throw a whole lot against them, and there’s been just one quarterback who’s thrown the ball more than 35 times, but when they do throw, there’s production. Case Keenum and Josh Rosen were the only quarterbacks who averaged less than 7.1 yards per attempt against them, while three quarterbacks were able to average 11.9 or more yards per attempt. The 8.53 yards per attempt they allow on the year ranks as the second-most in the NFL, while their 8.14 percent touchdown-rate is by far the highest in the league (closest is 6.94 percent). With James Conner out for this game, they’re likely to throw the ball a bit more than they typically would and knowing the Raiders boast a league-low 2.82 percent sack-rate, Roethlisberger should have all the time he needs to carve them up. He’s a solid QB1 this week, even on the road.
Derek Carr: We’re all just sitting back and watching the rollercoaster in motion that is Derek Carr. He’s totaled 24.2 or more fantasy points on three occasions this season, while every other game has netted less than 15.7 fantasy points. He’s extremely unpredictable (everyone wanted to blame Amari, ha) week over week and it’ll be tougher for him to produce at a consistent level with the receivers around him. The Steelers haven’t been a great matchup for quarterbacks ever since Week 5, as they’ve allowed just 213.5 yards and 1.38 touchdowns per game since then. Philip Rivers was the first quarterback (last week) who was able to post top-18 numbers against them in their last nine games despite matchups against Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Baker Mayfield in that span. Their 8.7 percent sack-rate is also the second-highest mark in the league, while Carr has been sacked 37 times in the last 10 games. Side note: the Steelers defense might be a good play. Carr, on the other hand, is not.
RBs
Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley: If you’ve somehow missed the news, James Conner has been ruled out this week with an ankle sprain. Mike Tomlin came out and said that the “intention” is to use a running back by committee, but that’s never been the Steelers’ way. Between Le’Veon Bell, Conner, and DeAngelo Williams, it’s always been a one-back system. While Ridley is the veteran with more experience, he’s not really a three-down back, which is what’s been required out of the Steelers starter. Over Ridley’s eight-year career, he’s caught just 30 receptions for just 162 scoreless yards. Samuels has been in the NFL for 12 games and he’s already caught seven passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns. He’s listed as a TE/RB on Yahoo because he was considered a rare hybrid player, though the Steelers drafted him as a running back. My guess would be that Samuels gets the first shot at the job, while Ridley will give him breathers. The Raiders opponents average 25.6 carries and 130.5 yards per game to running backs, so there’s likely plenty of work to go around. Consider Samuels a middling RB2 this week who’s not guaranteed to have a workhorse role just yet, though he fits the mold of the team. If you have him in Yahoo, you can play him as a high-end TE1, which is obviously preferred because you likely have a better running back solution than tight end solution. As for Ridley, he’s nothing more than a risky RB4 this week who’s been passed from team-to-team for a reason and hasn’t been productive outside of his time with the Patriots.
Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: Martin has now totaled at least 58 total yards in six straight games since taking over for Marshawn Lynch and has even scored a touchdown in each of the last two games. The Steelers have started to let-up on opposing run-games, as they’ve now allowed a rushing touchdown in five straight games and seven of the last eight. They’ve allowed 4.53 yards per carry and five touchdowns over the last five weeks, which comes after being one of the best run defenses in the league over the first five weeks when they allowed just 3.41 yards per carry and two touchdowns in that span. There’s been no major injuries, so that’s not the case, but it seems like their pass-defense just became more of a priority, and it’s worked for the most part. Because of that, Martin should be considered a usable high-end RB3 who’s getting all goal-line work and guaranteed 12-plus touches per game. As for Richard, his targets have come down considerably the last five games, as he’s topped four targets just once, a number he topped in six of the first seven games. Still, the gamescript fits his role rather well, even though the Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest points through the air to running backs. Update: Martin has been dealing with a knee injury, forcing the Raiders to sign C.J. Anderson as a safety net. Martin did get in a full practice on Wednesday, so it looks like he’ll play, but he comes with more risk than usual.
WRs
Antonio Brown: We finally got the explosion we were waiting for with Brown last week with a 10-catch, 154-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Chargers (of all teams), and we could get another one this week. The Raiders don’t have one cornerback who takes care of opposing No. 1 receivers, but rather play sides. Brown will see a lot of Gareon Conley and Rashaan Melvin in coverage, a duo that’s allowed just a 52.5 percent catch-rate in their coverage but have allowed a massive 15.4 yards per reception. That’s likely due to the lack of pass-rush from their front-seven, as quarterbacks have plenty of time to throw. With Roethlisberger and Brown, they have a different connection than most and you’ll see Roethlisberger take big shots down the field when given time. The Raiders have allowed just one receiver to score more than 17 PPR points against them this year, but Brown is likely the next one on that list.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: His matchup isn’t a bad one, as the Raiders have rookie Nick Nelson covering the slot for them. He didn’t take over until the last few weeks but has allowed 15-of-22 passing for 205 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, which is good enough for a 128.0 QB Rating. There have been 18 different wide receivers who’ve hit double-digit PPR points against the Raiders, but just one of them has gone for more than 17 points, and it comes down to lack of targets. The Raiders allow just 9.7 receptions per game to wide receivers, but they’ve faced just 17.1 targets per game, so while they’ve been effective at limiting receivers’ yardage, they’ve also allowed a touchdown every 12.1 targets, which ranks as the third most often in the league. Smith-Schuster isn’t likely to have a big yardage day and you’ll need a touchdown to live up to this, but he’s a WR2 in my book.
Seth Roberts: While Jordy Nelson and Marcell Ateman deal with Joe Haden and Coty Sensabaugh who’ve done a great job lately, Roberts will draw Mike Hilton who’s struggled a bit as of late. Well, not just Hilton, but the entire middle of the field for the Steelers, as they do run a lot of zone coverage. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Keenan Allen tag them for 14/148/1 and Emmanuel Sanders get them for 7/86/1. Does this mean you should trust Roberts? No, he’s not even close to their level, but he has the best matchup on the team. He’s still nothing more than a WR5/6 who’s dealing with a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback.
TEs
Vance McDonald: After missing some of last week’s game and some practice time, McDonald was back on the field last week and played his typical 65 percent of the snaps. He also saw seven targets, but dropped one, while another was intercepted. He’s now seen 39 targets over the last seven games, which amounts to 5.6 per game. If he could get that many against the Raiders, he’d be ranked as a top-six tight end this week. They were already terrible with efficiency before Travis Kelce came to town last week, but they’re now on a completely different planet than any other team when it comes to defending tight ends. They’ve allowed 2.62 PPR points per target (nobody else over 2.16), 78.2 percent completion-rate (nobody else over 76.9), 11.5 yards per target (nobody else over 9.5), 14.7 yards per reception (nobody else over 14.0), and a touchdown every 8.7 targets (nobody else is less than 9.4). As you can see, they run the table for their amount of badness against tight ends. McDonald definitely belongs on the TE1 radar this week and could turn into a stud if targeted enough.
Jared Cook: He tallied his third 100-yard game of the year last week in a plus-matchup against the Chiefs and will look to continue that surge against the Steelers, who’ve turned their play around after a brutal start to the season. After allowing five top-12 tight end performances against them the first seven weeks, the Steelers haven’t allowed a tight end to finish better than the TE11 in the five games since. Competition could play into tight end performances, as they’ve played Antonio Gates, Jeff Heuerman, James O’Shaughnessy, Greg Olsen, and Mark Andrews in that stretch. When it comes to tight ends, you want to follow the targets and there’ve been eight quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball 36 or more times against them. If Carr throws the ball 40 times, you can virtually guarantee Cook is going to see six-plus targets, making him a solid middling TE1 for this game.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 40.5
Line: DET by 2.5
QBs
Matthew Stafford: After throwing for multiple touchdowns in six straight games from Week 2 through Week 8, Stafford has thrown one or less touchdowns in four of the last five games. The loss of Golden Tate has hurt quite a bit, as has the loss of Marvin Jones. Unfortunately, going to play in Arizona isn’t likely to correct these issues, as the Cardinals have yet to allow a quarterback finish better than the QB10 against them, and they’ve played Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. Knowing that, it’s a miracle they’ve allowed just 16 passing scores through 12 games. They bring the pressure, as their sack-rate is 8.64 percent, third-highest in the NFL, while Stafford has been sacked 23 times in the last five games. With Patrick Peterson covering his top receiver, it’s likely going to be a long day for Stafford, making him a non-option in Week 14.
Josh Rosen: He’s now thrown for less than 150 yards in three straight games and hasn’t hit 7.0 yards per attempt since way back in Week 6. On top of that, he just lost one of his top targets in Christian Kirk for the season. The Lions have been terrible against the pass all year, but actually showed-up last week against the Rams and held Jared Goff to just 207 yards and one touchdown on 33 attempts. The volume has been extremely low against them (30.0 attempts per game), which is why we’ve seen just three quarterbacks throw for more than 248 yards against them. Combine that with Rosen’s lack of attempts/yardage and more interceptions than touchdowns, and you have a bad combination for a streamer. With Kirk going down, it was the final reason you needed to stay away from Rosen (not that you needed it).
RBs
LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick: As of now, it’s not expected to see Kerryon Johnson on the field this week, so we should see a healthy dose of Blount against the Cardinals. It’s not often we expect gamescript to be in his favor, but this is a game where Blount’s role could see extended work. On top of that, the matchup is a great one. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns this year, including multiple touchdowns in four games. They’ve also allowed 8-of-12 teams rush for at least 114 yards against them. On average, running backs are able to rack-up 27.6 carries per game against the Cardinals, and knowing Blount has totaled 35 of the Lions’ 48 carries over the last two weeks, you should feel relatively confident he’ll finish this game with 18-plus carries. Knowing he gets all goal-line carries as well, Blount has high-end RB3 appeal with the only downside being his lack of usage in the passing-game. Riddick is the one who takes care of that, and he also finished with a season-high eight carries last week, so maybe his role is growing. Riddick is a lot shiftier than Blount (obviously) and offers more big-play ability but being limited to 2-8 carries per game doesn’t usually amount to much. The Cardinals have allowed at least 63 receiving yards to four different running backs, so Riddick does have appeal here. He’s in the low-end RB3 conversation for standard leagues, but high-end RB3 in PPR formats.
David Johnson: After a promising start under Byron Leftwich where Johnson saw 13 targets in the first two games, he’s now totaled just eight targets over the last three weeks combined. Johnson has totaled at least 19 touches in every game under Leftwich, so that’s nice, but the carries haven’t been worth all that much (3.7 yards per carry). He’s scored just one rushing touchdown on his last 113 carries, which is bad territory. By comparison, the Bears defense has allowed one touchdown per 82.0 carries this year. The Lions had been straight-up dominant against the run since acquiring defensive tackle Damon Harrison, though Todd Gurley was able to post great numbers last week. The three prior weeks, they’d allowed just 124 rushing yards on 44 carries (2.82 yards per carry) and one touchdown. Prior to acquiring Harrison, they allowed 812 yards on 137 carries (5.93 yards per carry) with four touchdowns in six games. If the Cardinals decide to use Johnson in the passing-game, that might help, as the Lions have allowed at least 33 yards through the air to running backs in each of the last five games, including two touchdowns to the Bears running backs on Thanksgiving. We can’t guarantee work for Johnson in the passing-game especially when we know the Lions’ opponents average just 30.0 attempts per game and that Rosen has thrown 26 or less attempts in each of the last three games. It does help that Kirk’s injury clears a path to more targets. Johnson is unfortunately in RB2 territory right now and it’s hard to say he’ll reach RB1 heights even if he scores.
WRs
Kenny Golladay: He’s now seen at least eight targets in four straight games, but he had his worst game of that stretch last week against the Rams when he totaled just three catches for 50 yards. Now going against the Cardinals, you know he’ll see Patrick Peterson most of the time. Between Peterson and Bene Benwikere, they’ve combined to allow a 62.5 percent catch-rate, 11.2 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 22.0 targets. He would escape their coverage in the slot, but he plays there just under 30 percent of the time. He’s not targeted much while in there, as he’s seen just four targets on 34 routes over the last three weeks. There’s been just three primary perimeter wide receivers who’ve finished top-15 against the Cardinals, and they were Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Two of those are essentially cheetahs, while Adams has been matchup-proof all season. Golladay seeing the volume he does, he belongs in the WR2 conversation, but it’s not likely going to be a massive game.
Bruce Ellington: He’s now seen 26 targets after just three weeks with the team and has caught 19 passes for 115 yards. While he’s not a sexy upside option, he can serve a purpose in fantasy football. He easily has the best matchup on the field this week, as Budda Baker is the guy he’ll see in coverage about half the time. Baker has seen 42 targets in his slot coverage and here’s what he’s allowed: 35 receptions, 378 yards, two touchdowns. That’s good enough for a 120.0 QB Rating. Knowing that Ellington has caught at least six passes for each of the last three games and is matched-up with a converted safety who’s allowed an 83.3 percent catch-rate, he’s worth WR4 consideration in PPR formats, though he’s just a low-upside WR5 in standard formats.
Larry Fitzgerald: After seeing 38 targets in a four-week span from Weeks 6-10, Fitzgerald has seen just 12 targets over the last three games. He did catch three touchdowns in those games, keeping his fantasy totals afloat, but he’s going to need a bit more volume to deliver reliable results. With Christian Kirk going down for the year, Fitzgerald should be locked into eight-plus targets this week in what I’d call a great matchup. The Lions have moved Nevin Lawson into the slot as of late simply because they have no other solution. Since moving him there most of the time in Week 7, he’s allowed 14-of-22 passing for 154 yards and two touchdowns while covering the slot. Even in non-slot snaps, he’s allowed 11-of-17 passing for 130 yards and two touchdowns in that time. You do have to worry about the Lions double-teaming Fitzgerald, as Matt Patricia’s defense typically looks to take away the opponent’s top option, but Fitzgerald should see a solid target share this week, making him a high-end WR3.
TEs
Levine Toilolo: This is the third tight end we’ve listed here for the Lions and it’s getting rather old. Toilolo hadn’t seen more than two targets in any game this season, so you shouldn’t be willing to die on that grenade. Also, he’s not very good. Luke Willson has seen more than two targets just twice all year and has seen just six targets since Week 8. Michael Roberts saw six targets in Week 12, but he was inactive last week, and hasn’t topped 16 yards since Week 7. You do not want to play a Lions tight end in anything, no matter what the matchup is.
Ricky Seals-Jones: I don’t know what happened to Seals-Jones and the coaching staff, but they’ve clearly moved on from him as an option in the passing game. He’s run just 37 routes and seen eight targets over the last three weeks, which comes after running 94 routes and seeing 17 targets over the previous three weeks. He’s caught just one pass over each of the last three games, and though it doesn’t help that Rosen’s thrown the ball just 65 times in those games, it hurts that Seals-Jones hasn’t been on the field. You have to wonder if that changes with Christian Kirk‘s injury because they’re lacking weapons in the passing-game. The Lions have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target (1.93) to tight ends, but have faced just 68 targets all season (5.7 per game), which is the fourth-fewest in the league. This situation is one worth paying attention to with Kirk out, but you can’t play Seals-Jones on recent usage.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Total: 52.5
Line: LAR by 3.0
QBs
Jared Goff: After the 105-point bonanza that took place before their bye, Goff came out looking quite rusty against the Lions last week. That’s not great when he’s about to head into a much tougher matchup with the Bears. They’ve been a bit more dominant against the run than the pass, as they’ve allowed three quarterbacks to throw for three touchdowns against them, while allowing just three rushing touchdowns on the season. If the Bears can get pressure (as they typically do), Goff does struggle a bit under pressure. He ranks as the No. 23 quarterback in the NFL with just a 65.9 QB Rating in those situations, compared to the No. 4 quarterback with a 124.7 QB Rating when he’s kept clean. The Bears defense has allowed more than 24 points just twice all season and it came when Khalil Mack was dealing with his ankle injury. It’s also worth noting that Goff comes from Cal and now plays in Los Angeles. The temperature in Chicago Sunday night is supposed to be below freezing (30 degrees), so you have to wonder how that’ll affect Goff. He’s played just one game in sub-40 temps (against the Broncos in Week 6) and he completed just 14-of-28 passes for 201 yards and no touchdowns. While you don’t want to automatically say that he’s going to bust, it’s going to be a tough matchup in Chicago. He should be considered more of a high-end QB2 than the QB1 he’s been.
Mitch Trubisky: After missing the last two weeks with a shoulder injury, Trubisky is set to return in Week 14 against the Rams. While it’s been a great matchup for quarterbacks over the last two months, there’s something that happened last week that changes the outlook. Cornerback Aqib Talib returned to the lineup. In the four games with Talib, the Rams defense has allowed 216.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. In the eight games without him, they allowed 299.8 yards and 2.9 touchdowns per game. While it’s a small sample size and the quality of teams can affect that, it’s notable. The Rams are a heavy man-coverage team, which should allow Trubisky to rack-up the yardage on the ground. If you’ve missed me talking about this on the podcast, when defenders are in man-coverage, their backs are often turned to the quarterback while chasing their man, which in turn, allows the quarterback to run freely if he can out-run the linebacker who’s asked to spy. That’s why we saw Russell Wilson run for 92 yards against them the other week. There’s risk with Trubisky coming off the shoulder injury, but he should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 who presents a high-floor.
RBs
Todd Gurley: After his down performance against the Chiefs in Week 11, Gurley came back and recorded another multi-touchdown game last week. The Bears have shown some vulnerability over the last two weeks, allowing 250 yards on 52 carries (4.81 yards per carry) with two touchdowns, though both games were on the road. While at home, they’ve allowed a league-low 66.2 rushing yards per game (allow 105.5 on the road). The Bears have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 82.0 carries, which is the best in the NFL, while no other team is over 60.3 carries per touchdown. They have, however, allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs on 70 receptions. It does help to know that Malcolm Brown is out for the year and Gurley’s new backup John Kelly (rookie) doesn’t have any NFL experience. We should see Gurley rack-up 20-plus touches in this game, which is always a good thing, though the Rams are going to have to rely on him in the receiving game a bit more than they have over the last few games (just three receptions in each of the last three games). Gurley is always in your lineup and you shouldn’t ever consider benching him, regardless of matchup.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: There was wonder on whether Howard just took a while to adjust to the new offense, but it appears that is over. He’ll still get carries in games the Bears are leading, though that hasn’t been the case for many teams against the Rams. Opponents have averaged 20.3 carries per game against them, which is on the lower end of the league, but they’ve now allowed six straight teams run for at least 4.0 yards per carry against them and have allowed at least 94 yards in five of them. Meanwhile, we’ve seen them hold five straight teams of running backs to five or less receptions and 41 or less yards through the air. Keep in mind those games included Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram, Kareem Hunt, and Theo Riddick. That doesn’t bode well for Cohen, who’s coming off two games that have netted 19 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t totaled more than eight carries since back in Week 4, so the Rams’ weaknesses oddly fit Howard’s game better than Cohen’s. I’m not willing to say Howard is the better play because he just doesn’t look good while playing out of the shotgun. Don’t be shocked if Trubisky leads the team in rushing yards this week. Howard should be considered a middling RB3 who needs to score in order to not bust. Meanwhile, Cohen should probably be played as a high-end RB3, though this matchup isn’t great for his skill-set.
WRs
Robert Woods: He’s going to mostly match-up with Bryce Callahan this week, who may not be a household name, but he’s been one of the better slot cornerbacks in football this year. He’s allowed a rather-high 75.5 percent catch-rate, but that number is due to a lot of dump-offs, as he’s allowed just 8.1 yards per reception and one touchdown on 49 targets. The one touchdown was to Julian Edelman back in Week 7, who happens to be the only slot receiver who’s finished as a top-20 option against the Bears since Week 1. Callahan was even able to keep Adam Thielen in-check a few weeks ago where he totaled just seven catches for 66 yards on 12 targets. Woods hasn’t seen more than 11 targets this season and has registered more than five catches just once the last nine games, so he likely doesn’t come with too much upside in this game. He should be considered a middling to low-end WR2 who may have the toughest matchup of the Rams receivers.
Brandin Cooks: He’s going to see a lot of Prince Amukamara in coverage this week, which should bode well for him. Not that Amukamara has been bad, but he’s not nearly as fast as he used to be and may have trouble keeping Cooks’ speed in-check. He was burned by Stefon Diggs and Vikings receivers quite a bit a few weeks back, as he allowed nine catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage that game. The Bears have allowed seven wide receivers to finish as top-20 options against them and each of them saw at least eight targets, a number that Cooks has hit in four of his last five games. While it’s not a Grade-A matchup, it’s likely the best one on the Rams team, making him a solid WR2.
Josh Reynolds: The Rams have rotated Reynolds in and out of the slot with Woods over the last two games, as Reynolds has played 43 percent of his snaps there. It won’t help him this week, as he’s got tough matchups no matter where he goes. His primary matchup will be against Kyle Fuller, who has allowed just a 53.2 QB Rating in his coverage since the start of Week 3. He’s allowed two touchdowns on 66 targets while intercepting six passes in that time. When he goes into the slot, he’ll go against Bryce Callahan who’s allowed just 8.1 yards per reception and one touchdown in his coverage all season. Reynolds doesn’t have much appeal this week outside of being on the Rams. He should be considered a low-end WR4 with minimal upside.
Allen Robinson: There’s not one cornerback Robinson will see more than others against the Rams, because now that they have Aqib Talib back, he and Marcus Peters will stick to their sides. The Rams had Talib on a snap-count last week but are expecting to have him back with no restrictions this week. It’s difficult to say Robinson is a must-play when the Rams have been such a different team with Talib on the field, but Robinson has seen at least seven targets in three of the last four games. With Talib in the lineup, the Rams have allowed one receiver to top 50 yards in four games. They’ve allowed 11 of them in the eight games without Talib. Again, small sample size, but noteworthy. Robinson should be considered a middling WR3 who is talented enough to win these matchups, though it’s not a “plus” matchup that you need to exploit.
Taylor Gabriel: With Aqib Talib back, it’s going to put Marcus Peters back at his stationary RCB position, which is where Gabriel is almost half the time. The Bears haven’t had much success on go-routes to Gabriel, but they take their chances quite a bit, as he’s seen 13 targets on them. That’s where Peters has been destroyed in-coverage, as he’s allowed 6-of-7 passing for 235 yards and four touchdowns on them. This is a certified good matchup for Gabriel and he likely matches up better with Peters/Talib than Robinson does. If Trubisky’s arm is okay, Gabriel can be a solid sleeper play this week. He’s difficult to trust as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4, but the potential is there.
Anthony Miller: It’s clear that Miller and Chase Daniel didn’t have much of a connection, so it’s a good thing that Trubisky is due back this week. The Rams are mixing and matching their cornerbacks outside of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, as we’ve seen Troy Hill and Sam Shields mix-in with Nickell Robey-Coleman. It’s quite odd, too, because Robey-Coleman has been the best one, and it’s not even close. Hill and Shields have combined to allow 50-of-72 passing for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Robey-Coleman has allowed 27-of-41 passing for 215 yards and one touchdown. The uncertainty of who will be out there the most makes Miller risky, though if we knew Hill or Shields was the guy who’d defend him, he’d be a recommended play. Miller is a middling WR4 against the Rams, but one who is a bit more sensitive to the matchup.
TEs
Gerald Everett: The good news – Everett tallied more snaps than he’s played all season in Week 13. The bad news – he played just 24 snaps. He hasn’t been on the field enough to be a reliable fantasy option, but he is starting to see a bit more involvement in the offense. He’s still yet to top three catches or 49 yards all season but has scored three touchdowns over the last three games, so we have to pay attention. The Bears have allowed just the seventh-fewest PPR points per target (1.57) to tight ends, which stems from them allowing just 9.8 yards per reception and 5.86 yards per target. They’ve still yet to allow a tight end more than 49 yards and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since Week 8. Everett is nothing more than a guy you play in tournaments as you try and get a week ahead of his emergence.
Trey Burton: There’s going to be a lot of fantasy owners looking to let go of Burton after his zero-catch game last week, but I’d strongly urge against that. The Rams have allowed four different tight ends score 15-plus PPR points against them, including three to finish with at least 98 yards. Those three tight ends were Travis Kelce (who plays in a similar system), Jared Cook, and George Kittle. All three of those tight ends are incredible athletes, like Burton. While Chase Daniel favored running backs, Burton has had much more success with Trubisky under center. With Aqib Talib back, the perimeter isn’t where you want to target the Rams, but rather work the middle of the field. They’ve allowed a league-high 14.0 yards per reception to tight ends and it’s led to 71.0 yards per game. Burton should be back in lineups as a middling TE1.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 45.5
Line: SEA by 3.0
QBs
Kirk Cousins: It seems the Seahawks defense is finally starting to show the effects of all the lost players, as they’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each of their last six games, including 300-plus yards in four of them. All those games came after their bye week, so it’s possible the momentum just stopped. The reason we haven’t seen massive performances against them is due to their opponents averaging just 59.8 plays per game. When teams do pass, they have some success, as they’ve allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, including 8.7 yards per attempt over those last six weeks. Meanwhile, Cousins has struggled a bit, finishing with 262 or less yards in five of his last seven games. It’s odd, too, as Cousins has started to become a bit gun-shy, as his average depth of target now sits at 7.1 yards down the field, which is only behind Matthew Stafford, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr. Playing in Seattle on primetime is likely going to be very tough for the offense to communicate, so combining that with the limited plays and Cousins’ struggles suddenly becomes worrisome. The Seahawks and Bills are the only teams left who’ve yet to allow a 23-point performance to a quarterback, so the upside is limited as well. Cousins should be considered a middling QB2 who isn’t likely going to win your matchup singlehandedly.
Russell Wilson: It’s gotten to the point where it’s ridiculous with Wilson, as he’s now thrown 22 touchdowns on his last 205 pass attempts. That’s a ridiculous 10.7 percent. He’s always been great, but Wilson hadn’t ever topped 7.0 percent prior to this year. There’s going to be some regression with him and the Vikings could be the team to start that process. They’ve allowed just five passing touchdowns in their last seven games and have also held six of the last seven quarterbacks to 240 yards or less. I always reference this, but I do to ensure you know how great the Vikings defense has been. Outside of the one Thursday night game where they had to travel across the country and play the Rams on a short week, the Vikings have allowed just 10 passing touchdowns on 356 pass attempts (2.81 percent) with just 7.1 yards per attempt. This is the ultimate elite versus elite matchup that’s taking place in Seattle, with both teams having their backs against the wall. It’s unlikely we see Wilson deliver anything more than high-end QB2 numbers in this game, as no quarterback has finished better than the QB16 against them since Week 5.
RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: It’s a good time to play the Seahawks, as they’ve suddenly lost the ability to contain running backs. Over the last five weeks, they’ve allowed 6.00 yards per carry, four touchdowns on the ground, and two touchdowns through the air to running backs. It’s reached its peak over the last two weeks, too, as they’ve allowed 450 total yards to the Panthers and 49ers running backs. The reason you should be psyched as a Cook owner is that 258 of those yards came through the air, which is where he dominates. He’s totaled 18 targets over four games since returning, while Murray has seen three targets in those games. The issue is that the Seahawks’ opponents average just 24.8 touches per game against them, which isn’t a great recipe for a timeshare. Fortunately, Cook appears to be separating from the timeshare. He should be played as a high-end RB2 while Murray is nothing more than a low-end RB4 who is more of a handcuff than anything.
Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Rashaad Penny: We’ve had matchups to attack with this timeshare as of late, but against the Vikings, it’s not a great time to be a Seahawks running back. They’ve allowed just two top-12 running back performances all season, and both of those running backs (Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley) totaled at least 20 touches and scored a receiving touchdown. There’s still yet to be a running back who’s topped 83 yards against them, and they’ve played some of the best running backs in the game. If we remove James Develin (who’s technically a fullback), the Vikings have allowed just three rushing touchdowns to running backs all season, one every 86.0 carries. The way to beat them is through the air, as they’ve allowed eight different running backs total at least 30 receiving yards, including four with at least 56 yards. Unfortunately, Carson has caught just five passes since Week 8 and he dislocated his index finger in last week’s game. Meanwhile, Penny has not caught a pass since Week 9. If there’s one running back to play, it has to be Carson, who’s totaled 51 of the last 85 touches by a Seahawks running back, but you’re not excited about it. He should be considered a low-upside RB3 who comes with plenty of risk, while Penny is just an RB4 who needs to be used more in the passing-game. Davis is the one who’s caught the most passes out of the backfield, but he’s been phased-out of the offense as of late, playing just 28 snaps over the last two weeks combined.
WRs
Adam Thielen: After his eight-game streak of 100 yards was snapped, it seems something happened to the Cousins/Thielen connection, as he’s now finished with less than 30 yards in two of the last four games. His targets are still solid, as he’s yet to have a game with less than seven. The Seahawks have allowed some bigger games to slot-heavy receivers this year, though it’s been a little while since those games. Emmanuel Sanders posted 10/135/1, Cooper Kupp posted 6/90/1, and Keenan Allen posted 6/124/0 against them. Justin Coleman has done a fine job keeping the play in front of him, as he’s allowed a 70.2 percent catch-rate with just 9.7 yards per catch. An odd stat is that 80.9 percent of the yards he’s allowed have come after the catch, while Thielen hasn’t done much after the catch this year (3.7 yards). It’s not a great matchup, but you aren’t even considering benching a guy who sees seven-plus targets every game and one who’s scored a touchdown in nine of the last 11 games. He may not be the elite WR1 he was at the start of the season, but Thielen is still a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
Stefon Diggs: After his scare last Sunday morning when he woke up with knee swelling, it appeared like Diggs was himself against the Patriots, catching all five of his targets for 49 yards. He’s going to see all three Seahawks cornerbacks in coverage, so it’s not as if there’s one player we can point out. As a whole, the Seahawks have allowed 1.89 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the 10th-best. They have allowed 10 wide receivers to score 15 or more PPR points against them this year, with each receiver seeing a minimum of seven targets, and nine of them saw at least nine targets. This is important because Diggs hasn’t been locked into seven-plus targets like Thielen has. There’s been three times he’s seen less than that, including last week which could have been because of his knee injury. Diggs can hopefully return to a full practice by the end of the week, though it appears unlikely. I’ll update the notes on Saturday, but he should be considered a high-end WR3 this week who comes with some risk.
Tyler Lockett: This should be interesting because you have a receiver who’s caught a touchdown every 6.2 targets going against a defense that’s allowed a touchdown once every 23.7 targets to wide receivers, which ranks just the 26th most often in the league. It’s important because Lockett hasn’t seen more than six targets in each of the last 10 games. History tells us that he’ll fade, but like Wilson, it’s tough to know when. He’ll see plenty of Trae Waynes in coverage this week, who’s allowed a rather-high 72 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but the Vikings do run quite a bit of zone coverage and they’ll likely play more of it this week considering the Seahawks don’t have a clear-cut No. 1 receiver to shadow with Xavier Rhodes. Lockett is clearly on the same page with Wilson and they connect more often than they don’t, so he should continue being trotted out as a WR3 who’s touchdown-dependent. It’s worth noting that Waynes is in the concussion protocol, but with this game being on Monday night, he has time to get cleared.
David Moore: If there’s anyone who sees Xavier Rhodes in coverage this week, it’s probably Moore who’s the bigger, physical receiver on the Seahawks. Moore is coming off a zero-target game against the 49ers, but it’s important to remember that Wilson threw the ball just 17 times in that game. You know the risk with Moore any given week but also know the potential, as he’s caught a touchdown every 7.4 targets. Rhodes has been dealing with a hamstring injury but was able to gut it out and play 45-of-74 snaps last week. His replacement, Holton Hill, is pretty solid in coverage as well. They’ve combined to allow 45-of-69 passing for 464 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage, which isn’t anything to write home about. Moore has been targeted down the field much more with his 16.6-yard average depth of target, but the Vikings has allowed just the 19th-most 20-plus yard pass-plays against them. Coming off the zero-target game, Moore is a risky WR5 this week who likely has the toughest matchup.
Doug Baldwin: We’ve had to accept Baldwin for what he is at this point in time, and that’s a wide receiver who’s going to finish in between 25-75 yards the majority of time. He’s now scored twice in the last three weeks and appears to be healthy, but his upside of years past is clearly gone. Mackensie Alexander is the slot cornerback for the Vikings, who has allowed 29-of-41 passing for 316 yards in his slot coverage (7.7 yards per target) with no touchdowns. The only slot-heavy receiver who’s posted more than 10.5 PPR points against the Vikings was Cooper Kupp, who caught 9-of-11 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns on that cross-country trip on a short week back in Week 4. Outside of that game, they’ve allowed just five touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Baldwin is just a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 in this game. Update: Baldwin was held out of practice on both Thursday and Friday, so his status is starting to look a bit murky. You’d ideally want him to return to a full practice on Saturday, but if he doesn’t, you may want to grab another wide receiver off the waiver wire to protect you if he’s not able to go on Monday night.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: As crazy as it sounds, Rudolph may have been better off with Case Keenum under center this year. He’s totaled in-between 11 to 57 yards in 10-of-12 games this season and hasn’t caught a touchdown since way back in Week 3. Now he’s heading to Seattle to play a team who’s allowed just 430 yards to tight ends all year. That amounts to just 35.8 yards per game, which ranks as the third-fewest in the league. They’ve also held them to just three touchdowns all year, with two of them going to backup tight ends. Oddly enough, Rudolph has seen the 10th-most targets among tight ends this year, so you can’t completely fade him all together, but this matchup isn’t one to attack. George Kittle (last week) was the first tight end to total more than 54 yards against them. He’s just a high-end TE2 who’s at least seeing a decent number of targets.
Nick Vannett: It seems like the Seahawks are trying to give Ed Dickson a bigger role than Vannett, though it hasn’t quite panned out. Over the last three weeks, Dickson has edged Vannett in pass routes, 44 to 33, but has finished with just three catches for 28 yards in those games while Vannett totaled four catches for 43 yards. Bottom line, these two are sharing the tight end targets and snaps, so they’re not a team to target when streaming. The Vikings have allowed a decent 8.1 yards per target to tight ends (10th-most) but have held them to just three touchdowns on 77 targets. They aren’t a great team when it comes to stopping tight ends, but they aren’t bad enough to the point where you need to attack them with a timeshare.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Total: 38.0
Line: TEN by 4.5
QBs
Cody Kessler: With the change in offensive coordinator, we didn’t know what to expect, but it was more of the conservative approach from the Jaguars offense, as Kessler threw the ball just 24 times, completing 18 of them for 150 yards and no touchdowns. With Fournette coming back this week, it’s likely to continue. The Titans have allowed at least two passing scores in four of their last six games, but they also played against Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers in that stretch. The only two who didn’t were Tom Brady (was likely due to Mike Vrabel knowing their team inside-and-out) and Josh McCown. You definitely wouldn’t put Kessler in the first group of quarterbacks and knowing they’re likely to throw the ball less than 30 times, there’s not even enough volume to consider him in any format. Kessler has taken over as the starter to protect the ball, so don’t assume he takes many chances in this game.
Marcus Mariota: The final stat line didn’t look bad, as Mariota scored at least 21.3 fantasy points for the fourth time in five games, but it wasn’t all pretty for him against the Jets, as he missed multiple throws where he had a wide-open man. You’ll have to live with inconsistencies when trusting Mariota, but he’ll be playing a team who’ll make him pay for those mistakes in Week 14. Despite the demise of the Jaguars as a team, their defense has remained someone to worry about in fantasy matchups. On the year, they’ve allowed just a 3.82 touchdown percentage, which is the lowest in football. The 6.77 yards per attempt is the fourth-lowest in football. If there’s one area Mariota can exploit them, it’s on the ground, as they’ve allowed over five yards per carry to quarterbacks, and it’s amounted to a league-leading 321 yards and four touchdowns to quarterbacks. Mariota played them earlier this year and threw for just 100 yards but added 51 rushing yards. He’s playing slightly better football, but he’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 this week in a tough matchup.
RBs
Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: As expected, both Carlos Hyde and Yeldon struggled to produce behind the Jags banged-up offensive line totaling just 52 scoreless yards on 21 carries (2.48 yards per carry) against the Colts. Not that Fournette has been a yards per carry monster himself, but he offers game-breaking potential that they don’t. The Titans haven’t been a plus-matchup for running backs most of the year, but have struggled a bit as of late, allowing 451 yards on 81 carries (5.57 yards per carry) and three touchdowns over the last three weeks. Keep in mind that their opponents were the Colts, Texans, and Jets, not any of the top-tier rushing teams. Fournette was out when these two teams played earlier in the year, where Yeldon rushed seven times for 44 yards and totaled six receptions for 46 yards. With the coordinator change, it appears the Jaguars will go just as run-heavy, making Fournette a candidate for 20-plus touches. With the way the Titans have struggled as of late makes him a bit more appealing, though the Titans defense should show up in a divisional home game against a Jaguars offensive line that may be without three starters. Fournette should be played as a low-end RB1 while Yeldon is nothing more than an RB4 who splits the passing-down work with Fournette.
Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: After playing the Jets and learning it’s become a full-blown timeshare again; the Titans duo will have a tough time providing fantasy value against the Jaguars in Week 14. They’ve allowed just three teams of running backs to combine for more than 91 rushing yards this year and have yet to allow multiple touchdowns to them in any game (receiving included). They’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns on the season, and those touchdowns were to Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Lamar Miller, four running backs who’ve played rather well this season. Henry hasn’t topped 12 carries since back in Week 3, making him an unappealing RB4 in this game. As for Lewis, he’s totaled just 175 total yards on 55 touches over the last four games and is starting to lose work. On top of that, the Jaguars have allowed just 1.36 PPR points per target to running backs this season, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. Lewis might be a worse play than Henry right now, so he’s best left on benches if you have a viable alternative.
WRs
Donte Moncrief: Kessler may be a better quarterback than Bortles, but when the Jaguars ask him to manage a game, it’s going to hurt Moncrief. His 12.5-yard average depth of target is the highest on the team, though that’s not a large number. The Titans have really struggled with perimeter wide receivers this year, as Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler have combined to allow 11 touchdowns on 148 targets in coverage this year. He might have the best matchup on the field, but if he’s seeing just four targets per game in this offense, you can’t start him with any confidence. He’s failed to see more than four targets since Week 8 and has caught five passes over the last three games. He’s the best wide receiver play on the Jaguars, but he’s still just in WR5 range.
Dede Westbrook: He led the team in targets (5) with Kessler under center, though it only netted three catches for 25 yards. He still played 80 percent of his snaps in the slot, so his role in the new offense didn’t change drastically. His matchup with Logan Ryan in the slot isn’t a good one, as Ryan has limited slot-heavy receivers all year. Outside of a matchup with Julian Edelman (who is a completely different receiver than Westbrook), no slot receiver has finished as a top-30 receiver against the Titans, including Westbrook, who caught three passes for 31 yards in their first meeting. He may come with the highest floor on the Jaguars, but that’s not saying much. He’s just a WR5 in this game.
Corey Davis: Knowing that Jalen Ramsey is going to be covering Davis is a problem, as Davis already has to overcome his quarterback struggles. On top of that, Davis’ target share has dipped over the last three weeks, totaling 15 targets in that time, his lowest in any three-week period this year. There have been just two wide receivers who Ramsey shadowed but allowed more than 14.0 PPR points to, and they were Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, who both saw 13-plus targets. You’d have to go back to Week 4 to find the last time Davis topped 10 targets. The Jaguars have allowed a league-low seven touchdowns to wide receivers (one every 32.0 targets), so knowing that Davis will see their best cornerback, it’s not wise to expect big results. He should be considered a high-end WR4 who’s got limited upside.
TEs
James O’Shaughnessy: Similar to the rest of the pass-catchers, the move to Kessler didn’t change everything for O’Shaughnessy. He saw just two targets for the third straight week and will now go against a Titans defense who’s the best in the NFL at defending tight ends. Through 12 games, they’ve still yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end and have allowed just 36.6 yards per game to them. O’Shaughnessy isn’t on the streaming radar.
Anthony Firkser and Jonnu Smith: It seems like Firkser is now someone to monitor in this offense, as he’s totaled 10 targets over the last three weeks despite playing just 45 snaps. Smith has played 90 snaps the last two weeks and totaled just five targets, so it’s clearly more of a timeshare than we’d like. The Jaguars aren’t a team who allows much to tight ends, even though the overall numbers on the year don’t look great. Outside of Eric Ebron and Travis Kelce, they haven’t allowed a tight end more than 36 yards in a game. They have, however, allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends, which is just as many as they’ve allowed to wide receivers. When looking for a streamer, you ideally have both a good matchup and a solid foundation of targets, but you can’t say either about Firkser and Smith, making them both shaky TE2 options this week.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.