If you’re reading this column, it means you’re still alive in your fantasy playoffs. And if you’re still alive after Week 15, it means you’re probably not very good at fantasy football, because anyone with a good team got crushed in Week 15.

Or maybe I’m just bitter after a couple of dominant squads went down last week. Anyway, I’m supposed to be talking quarterbacks, not insulting my readers, so…quarterbacks. No position was worse in Week 15. Only two quarterbacks topped 300 passing yards. No one threw for more than two touchdowns. Just three quarterbacks hit 20 points. Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Cam Newton — three of the top six quarterbacks this season — scored in single digits. It was ugly.

This week doesn’t look much better. Between injuries, difficult match-ups, and teams packing it in, this is the toughest it’s been to put together the tiers and rankings. All with fantasy championships on the line. Let’s get to it.

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Every-Week Starters

Patrick Mahomes (KC): @ Seattle
Andrew Luck (IND): vs. New York Giants
Deshaun Watson (HOU): @ Philadelphia
Drew Brees (NO): vs. Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): @ New Orleans

I assume you all skip the intro, so with this being the last week, I just wanted to say a quick thanks for reading throughout the year. Truly appreciate it.

Mahomes, Luck, and Watson are all easy starts, so let’s get to the two more difficult cases.

Drew Brees had a season-wrecking 5.9 fantasy points on Monday Night Football, his second single-digit game in three weeks. In that span, he has just two touchdowns vs. three interceptions and is averaging 5.65 yards per attempt. Those are Cody Kessler numbers. Now he gets a Steelers defense allowing just 6.0 net yards per attempt (8th fewest). Still, I expect a big bounce-back from Brees. His three-game skid was all on the road, and while his home/road splits are overblown, returning to the Superdome will help. Plus, the Steelers defense depends on its pass rush, generating sacks on 8.4% of drop-backs (2nd best). Brees doesn’t take sacks as only Luck has been dropped on a lower percentage of his pass attempts. If you need more comfort, the Saints have the highest implied team total on the week (31.5). I know it’s been rough, but I think Brees is a must-start this week.

Ben Roethlisberger was also a disappointment last week. You have to wonder if the rib injury was still bothering him, but there’s too much firepower on this offense to think of sitting the NFL’s leading pass-attempter.  Especially playing in the Superdome in the game with the highest over/under (57) on the week.

QB1s

Russell Wilson (SEA): vs. Kansas City
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): @ San Francisco
Dak Prescott (DAL): vs. Tampa Bay
Matt Ryan (ATL): @ Carolina
Aaron Rodgers (GB): @ New York Jets
Tom Brady (NE): vs. Buffalo
Baker Mayfield (CLE): vs. Cincinnati

I like Russell Wilson quite a bit this week. Should be a high-scoring game and he’s been producing when the opposing team can force Seattle to throw.

Mitch Trubisky snapped out of his funk with a solid 19 fantasy points (20/28, 235 passing yards, two touchdowns) to take the NFC North. Next up is a 49ers defense allowing the 6th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (19.6). Sounds good, but there are some red flags. The 49ers have been good against rushing quarterbacks, allowing just 168 yards on 52 attempts (3.2 ypc), and rushing is a huge part of Trubisky’s fantasy appeal. Plus, the Bears are projected for only 23.25 points based on the betting lines, and there’s trap game potential traveling cross-country after a big division-clinching win. Given the match-up and how good Trubisky’s been on the season, plus the overall “meh” of this tier, I’m keeping him as a solid start.

Dak Prescott was shut out by the Colts, which isn’t as bad as it sounds. The Colts rank 17th in net yards per attempt (6.4) and allow 16.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks (12th fewest)…they’re decent. Prescott’s Week 16 match-up is a little easier, facing a Buccaneers defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (20.6). Sure, the Buccaneers have looked better since firing defensive coordinator Mike Smith, holding opponents to under 200 passing yards in five of their last six games. That’s mostly because the Bucs have been facing run-first offenses who have absolutely gashed them on the ground (156 rushing yards per game in that span). Dallas can certainly follow that script, and it may limit Prescott’s upside, but he should have a nice floor. And as Jim Sannes notes, Prescott likes playing in JerryWorld.

It’s really hard to say what you’ll get out of Matt Ryan. It’s a meaningless game, on the road, possibly without Julio Jones, and definitely without Cam Newton to push the over. Ryan was the QB1 last week, though it was on just 231 passing yards and two passing touchdowns (plus the rare rushing score). You probably don’t have a better option, and sitting the number two overall quarterback in a good match-up in your championship game is the definition of “getting cute.” But I’m expecting merely solid, not great production.

It’s been a disappointing season for Tom Brady, and I think that’s how he’ll end 2018. The yardage has been there as he actually ranks fifth in passing yards, which would be news to his fantasy owners. Touchdowns have been harder to come by. He has 24 on the season, which is fine, but the 4.7% touchdown rate is his lowest since 2013 and he has one or zero touchdowns in five of his last seven games. The Bills quietly have an elite pass defense, allowing the third-fewest net yards per attempt (5.6).

I can’t tell if I’m way too high on Baker Mayfield (QB20 over the last three weeks, scoring under 14 points in all three games) or way too low on him (Cincinnati allows the second most points to quarterbacks, and as Field Yates notes the Browns offense has been elite in the second half). Ultimately, I’m trusting Vegas. The Browns are big home favorites with an implied team total of 26.25, among the highest of the week. Mayfield is not the safest play, but he offers strong upside.

Streamers

Lamar Jackson has a tough match-up, as the Chargers are allowing the seventh-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks (15.3). Since Joey Bosa’s return, they’ve allowed finishes of QB23, QB30, QB10, QB23, and QB8. The top-10 finishes were Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Jackson…he’s not in that class. Jackson should be ok-he has at least 15.9 fantasy points in all five of his starts, and the 17.2 rushing attempts per game guarantee a decent floor if he can stay out of the concussion protocol-but I doubt this is the game he figures out how to pass. Personally, I’d prefer not to hang my championship on a rookie on the road against a strong defense.

Josh Allen is a tough call. Simply en fuego since returning from injury, Allen is the QB1 over the last month. The problem is he’s scoring an insane 57% of his fantasy points on the ground. It feels like the bottom can fall out at any time when you’re relying so heavily on a handful of rushing attempts. That’s almost what we saw on Sunday, as Allen turned nine attempts into a mere 16 yards. He did get a rushing touchdown, plus 204 yards and a score through the air to salvage his day. The Patriots do seem like the type of team he can beat…old, slow and sporting the worst run defense in the league. At the same time, Allen seems like a pretty easy puzzle for Bill Belichick to solve. The low implied team total (16.25) also scares me.

QB2s

Taylor Heinicke (CAR): vs. Atlanta
Jeff Driskel (CIN): @ Cleveland
Josh Rosen (AZ): vs. Los Angeles Rams
Cody Kessler (JAC): @ Miami

A clearly limited Cam Newton at home against the Falcons’ defense was going to be one of the toughest decisions of the week. Taylor Heinicke in the same spot…that’s an easier decision.

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