Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 14.
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Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (BUF) $7,400 vs. NYJ
There aren’t a lot of value QBs on this slate, but Allen is an intriguing pivot from some of the more popular options at a similar price point. I’d expect Lamar Jackson ($7,500) and Jameis Winston ($7,700) to be more popular plays, but if you are looking for a leverage play at a similar price, Allen is a sneaky option. If it wasn’t for his kneel downs in the game two weeks ago, causing him to lose a full yard rushing, he’d have two straight 100-yard rushing games. Not even the more popular “rushing QB” Lamar Jackson can claim that. Allen also has three passing TDs over his last two games and Jackson only has one since becoming the starter.
Running Backs
Jaylen Samuels (PIT) $4,600 @ OAK
Samuels is the chalk play this week for obvious reasons. James Conner is going to miss this game, leaving Samuels as the defacto starter in a high-powered offense against the lowly Oakland Raiders. The rumors are that Samuels will be part of an RBBC with Stevan Ridley, but I’m not buying it. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have never used an RBBC, and I don’t see him starting now. Ridley may get a few touches, but it will be Samuels getting the bulk of the work.
Justin Jackson (LAC) $4,500 vs. CIN
Jackson showed some flashes in last week’s game against the Steelers, and he gets a much better matchup this week against the 28th ranked rushing defense in DVOA (via FootballOutsiders). Jackson is a nice tournament pivot off of Samuels, or you can pair them both together and pay up at tight end and wide receiver. He only had nine touches last week, but I would expect him to be more involved after his strong showing in Week 13.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin (TB) $5,600 vs NO/Courtland Sutton (DEN) $5,600 @ SF
Godwin and Sutton are both chalk play at the wide receiver position, so I decided to group them together. They are both getting their chances to be one of the top receiving options on their respective teams due to an injury — Sutton will assume the No. 1 spot while Godwin will lineup up across from Mike Evans as the No. 2. DeSean Jackson is out for the Bucs and Emmanuel Sanders has been put on IR. Both guys will be heavily owned with great matchups and, if coupled with RB Jaylen Samuels, could really open up your roster options.
Robert Foster (BUF) $5,100 vs. NYJ
Foster is my tournament dart throw for the day. He is a big-play, one-trick pony receiver for the Bills, but with the release of Kelvin Benjamin, he becomes the No. 2 WR in this offense. The Jets ranked 21st in DVOA against No. 2 WRs, and they just gave up 104 yards on three catches to the Titans No. 2 WR last week, Taywan Taylor.
Tight Ends
Ian Thomas (CAR) $4,900 @ CLE
Incumbent TE Greg Olsen has been placed on IR ending his season and possibly his career. Ian Thomas filled in for him after he went down last week and collected five catches for 46 yards. Coming into the game, QB Cam Newton has a shoulder issue that could limit his ability to throw the ball downfield. In fact, Newton was replaced on the last play of the game in Week 13 because he couldn’t throw the hail mary pass. If Newton is limited to shorter throws, that could mean more targets for Thomas.
Defense
Arizona Cardinals $3,700 vs. DET
The Lions have only one receiving threat on the outside in Kenny Golladay. It’s expected that shutdown corner Patrick Peterson will shadow him all day, effectively taking him out of the game. That leaves the Lions with Theo Riddick and Bruce Ellington as the biggest “threats” in the passing game. That doesn’t exactly sound like a recipe for success, especially when you consider QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with a back injury that has him practicing in a limited capacity.
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