FanDuel NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (12/14)

There are 9 games on the FanDuel main slate tonight. There are four games that have projected totals of 220 or higher with the Golden State at Sacramento game owning the highest total at 235.5 but it Golden State is an 8-point favorite. Washington travels to Brooklyn and this has a 226-point total and is expected to be very close. By far, the Miami at Memphis game has the lowest total at 197.  There are “only” 11 players that are priced at $9,000 or higher with Giannis Antetokounmpo being the top-priced player by a clear margin at $12,000. Russell Westbrook and Joel Embiid are both $11,000.

There are a lot of ways to construct lineups. Targeting the highest scoring game of the night (Golden State-Sacramento) isn’t a terrible decision. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry can do superstar things. This feel like a possible explosion spot for Klay Thompson and Sacramento has some mid-range plays that could get hot and exceed value tonight. However, instead of providing a game stack, the first-look sample lineup that I give you today targets some of my favorite individual plays from the night.

The roster and comments that I provide are intended to be taken as an early first look. In no way, should you blindly enter this lineup in a contest, nor plug and play these players automatically without examining all the information available to you. Remember that you roster nine players on FanDuel but only count your best eight scores as FD drops the worst scoring player from your lineup.

As always, more value should open up as the day goes by that may allow you to get even better plays into your lineup. All of the plays that recommended are plays that I will be considering for my lineups, as well. That doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of these guys as updated news and constructing rosters might lead me to a different play. Remember to check the news and injury reports, especially in the 30 minutes prior to lock. Have a solid process, using all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!

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Point Guard

Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN): $6,600 vs. WAS
In the last three games, Dinwiddie has averaged 38.9 FDFP. In his last five games, he has returned 4.7X value in each game. This is a slight pace up situation for the Nets and Dinwiddie has a 24% true usage rate. Plus, he just got rewarded with a 3-year contract extension after being in the G-League just a few years ago. Dinwiddie earned 19.4 FDFP against Washington when they played earlier this month, but he had 49.8 FDFP back in November against Washington. I am not sure you can deduce anything from that but it’s information, nonetheless. To be fair, the Nets played a 2OT game the night before so maybe that’s why he didn’t play well. If you want to pay up a little bit at PG, I am not against De’Aaron Fox ($7,600).

Fred VanVleet (TOR): $4,700 at POR
I am not against playing Kyle Lowry, but I am going with the value play here with VanVleet (if Kawhi Leonard sits again). He is playing really well, and Portland’s defense has not been playing well lately. VanVleet has averaged 28 FDFP in his last three games while playing 28 MPG. If Leonard plays then I would probably try to get off VanVleet and pivot to Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,500) and his three 40+ fantasy point performances in his last 10 games or T.J. McConnell ($4,400), who is similar to VanVleet in that he should be solid cash game option.

Shooting Guard

Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC): $6,300 vs. GSW
We have yet to see a ceiling for Bogdanovic this year, but the floor definitely has been there. He has been Mr. Reliable hitting for double-figure real-life points in 14 straight games. He has averaged 32.7 FDFP in his last seven games. In the last three games, he has played 30, 30, and 32 minutes so it appears that he is secure in his role off the bench for the Kings. I am also not opposed to Dennis Schroeder ($6,100) as his minutes and role seem to be secure regardless of game-flow. Also, if you can find the salary to get up to Klay Thompson ($6,800) or Kent Bazemore ($6,600), they could have 40+ fantasy performances tonight.

Monte Morris (DEN): $5,300 vs. OKC
He has earned a nice little role for the Nuggets this season and has really performed well lately. Overall, he is averaging 21.1 FDFP this season and but has gone for 36.7 and 34.9 FDFP in the last two games playing 28 and 30 minutes, respectively. The Nuggets have been struggling with injuries and so Morris has gotten more opportunity than usual. He is the backup PG but played 16 minutes alongside starter Jamal Murray in their last game. On DraftKings, he is listed only as a PG but on FanDuel, you get a PG at the SG position. It is always nice to get a guy who handles the ball so much in the SG slot. The Nuggets are in a nice pace up situation in this game. He has reached or exceeded 5X value in five of his last seven games, but his price is elevated to a season-high price tonight. Jamal Murray is probable for tonight but that makes me like Morris even more as he might get even more run if Murray’s minutes are limited at all. I also like Danny Green ($4,500) tonight, especially if Kawhi Leonard sits as he has earned 27 FDFP in two of his last three games.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant (GSW): $10,000 at SAC
I have decided to pay up at the Small Forward position with Durant and Paul George. Durant certainly can put up a big game, but the reality is that he is more of a high floor guy when Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all in the lineup. He had 69.2 FDFP last time he took on the Sacramento Kings, though Curry was sitting out that game. The reality is that Durant’s price is just too low. This $10,000 price tag is the lowest he’s been since October. He is reliable that probably won’t have a ceiling game, but you never know. Overall, he is averaging 49.8 FDFP this year. If you aren’t a Durant fan tonight and want to pay up elsewhere (e.g. Russell Westbrook), then I’d suggest Jeff Green ($4,800) coming off his 43-fantasy point performance, if Otto Porter misses again.

Paul George (OKC): $9,600 at DEN
This is not an easy matchup, but George does so many things well that I don’t get too concerned about his opponent. This is even more true when you consider that he had 55.7 FDFP the last time these two teams played back in late November. He has earned 40+ FDFP in each of his last five games, including a 72-point performance on December 5 against Brooklyn. He is probably my favorite play of the night because he has a great floor and his ceiling is extremely high.

Power Forward

Larry Nance Jr. (CLE): $7,000 vs. MIL
He has been very inconsistent this year but seems to have found a rhythm in the last three games. I’ve been burned by Nance several times this year so take this recommendation with a grain of salt. But I am getting back on the Nance train. Yes, he had 43.7 FDFP on Wednesday against the Knicks but I am most impressed with that performance because he did it even though he only scored 3 real life points. In total, he has averaged 37.6 FDFP in his last three games. One of those was Monday night against this same Milwaukee team when he had 32.2 FDFP. Tristen Thompson played in that game but with him being out tonight, I expect Nance to do more in a similar fashion to Wednesday’s game. Nance won’t have to compete with Thompson for rebounds and we know that Milwaukee doesn’t rebound very well. I actually like John Collins a little bit more but I couldn’t find the extra $1,100 to get up to him (at least in my first look lineup) and still feel good with my lineup.

Serge Ibaka (TOR): $6,800 at POR
This feels a bit like chasing points but he is playing so well lately. He has gone for 40+ fantasy points in each of his last three games, averaging 45.3 FDFP. To put this in perspective, in the three games before this recent stretch, he was in the 20-point range each game. Before this recent explosion, he had not topped 40 FDFP since November 4^th. He has only averaged 28 MPG in the last three games, so he isn’t exactly getting more playing time. I certainly like Ibaka more if Leonard continues to sit out with his hip injury. Ibaka is streaky and risky but if you want to do well in GPPs then you need to take some risks and betting on the hot hand isn’t a terrible idea.

Center

Robert Williams III (BOS): $3,600 vs. ATL
Mason Plumlee ($5,600), Cody Zeller ($5,400), and Brook Lopez ($5,400) are all in play for me at the Center position but they are mainly cash plays as they have a solid 20-28 point floor but, unfortunately, that is also their ceiling. If we are trying to make some money in GPPs and we are going to punt off a position, I’d rather take a chance on someone with upside and costs even less. I am going crazy tonight banking on Robert Williams III getting extra run against a bad Atlanta defense. He has gotten more opportunity lately with Al Horford and Aaron Baynes battling injuries. He has played 14 and 25 minutes in the last two games, earning 19.2 and 32.2 FDFP, respectively. Back in November, when the Celtics and Hawks played, Williams only played 8 minutes but collected 4 points and 3 rebounds totaling 10.6 FDFP. A potential blowout, his crazy talent, and a thin Celtic front line gives me reason to roll the dice on this extreme punt play. Who knows, maybe it’ll pay off like Tony Parker did this past week.

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Jamy Bechler is an NBA fantasy contributor for FantasyPros. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.