The Primer: Week 9 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Total: 56.5
Line: NE by 5.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: Can we just not write about this game and simply sit back to observe two of the best of all-time? I knew that wouldn’t work, but this is going to be a fun game to watch as a fan of greatness. After watching the joke of aggressiveness against the Rams, the Packers really need to up their urgency against the Patriots. The matchup suits Rodgers well, too, as the Patriots have now allowed at least 313 yards passing in five of their last seven games, including the Bills dynamic duo of Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman last week. The crazy part, however, is that the Patriots have allowed just 7.09 yards per attempt, which ranks as the eighth-lowest mark in the league. Opponents are averaging a massive 40.8 pass attempts per game against them, which is where a lot of the production comes from. That’s why five of the last seven quarterbacks have posted top-15 numbers against them, and why four quarterbacks have finished top-six. The Patriots play a ton of man coverage, which should allow Rodgers to post some rushing totals, too, as they’ve allowed the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. In a game where they can’t afford to take their foot off the throttle (hope they learned from last week), Rodgers should post high-end QB1 numbers.

Tom Brady: Despite the run-game not clicking until Sony Michel kind of took off, Brady currently sits as the No. 15 quarterback in fantasy points per game. It was shocking to see that, considering he ranks sixth in pass attempts, but without Rob Gronkowski playing like… well, Gronk, it’s affected Brady’s output. The Packers decided to trade away Haha Clinton-Dix this week, which is somewhat confusing considering they’re a contender, but they apparently feel good about sticking former undrafted free agent Jermaine Whitehead in his place. This will not help. Clinton-Dix led their secondary with three interceptions this year. There have been two quarterbacks who posted top-five performances against the Packers and they were Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins, two guys with plenty of options in the passing game. Those who didn’t post top-five numbers against the Packers, but still finished top-18: Mitch Trubisky, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, C.J. Beathard. As you can see, they were far from an elite defense with Clinton-Dix, as they’ve allowed 7.7 yards per attempt (12th-highest) and a 5.9 percent touchdown-rate (9th-highest). With Michel still questionable, expect Brady to show up for this battle of the GOATs. Just like Rodgers, he’s a high-end QB1 this week.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: The three-headed monster is no more, everyone rejoice! After the bye week, it appeared like the Packers moved to Jones as the clear-cut leader as he totaled 14 touches compared to just four for Williams and three for Montgomery. On top of that, the Packers traded away Montgomery to the Ravens this week, clearing up an average of 7.0 combined carries/targets. That’s pretty significant for Jones who’s been efficient with each touch he gets. Against the Patriots, touches may be hard to come by as five of the last seven teams who’ve played them have totaled 18 carries or less. Over the last three weeks, their defense has faced just 49 carries and those games were against somewhat run-heavy teams (Chiefs, Bears, Bills). They’ve allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the season, or one every 79.5 carries, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in football. But here’s the interesting part – the Patriots have allowed the second-most receiving yards (520) to running backs, the role that Montgomery usually filled. Williams has 17 targets on the year, while Jones has eight, so while it seems like Williams, it’s not clear-cut since Jones missed two games and just earned the starting role. As of now, Jones should be played as a low-end RB2 in this game, while Williams should be able to deliver RB4-type numbers.

Sony Michel and James White: With Michel out last week, the Patriots running back carry totals went like this: Cordarrelle Patterson 10, White 8, Kenjon Barner 2. Michel did return to practice last Saturday, but obviously didn’t play against the Bills. His knee injury is considered ‘not serious’ but the Patriots do have a bye in Week 11, so they could decide to play it safe, as their division is essentially wrapped-up. The Packers haven’t been a great matchup for running backs, though Todd Gurley made them look a bit more beatable with his 195-yard, one-touchdown performance. He was just the second running back who finished better than the RB18 against them, while Adrian Peterson was the other. A big reason is due to the fact that they’re the only two running backs who’ve totaled more than 15 carries. Running backs are averaging 26.9 carries per game against them, which does rank as the 10th-most in the league, so it would seem they’ve ran into a few timeshares. The 4.68 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the seventh-most in the league, so again, how are they allowing so little fantasy production? Well, they’ve faced just 39 running back targets, which is the lowest in the total in the NFL, including just two red zone targets. White alone has totaled 12 targets in the red zone. He should be started as an RB1 every week at this point. With Michel’s status completely up in the air, I’ll come back Saturday morning and give you my outlook based on practice reports.

WRs
Davante Adams: The Rams had Marcus Peters shadow him last week, but it didn’t stop him from tallying five catches for 133 yards. The Patriots are notorious for removing the opponent’s top option in the passing-game, which would most definitely be Adams. You have to wonder if they trust Stephon Gilmore in shadow coverage or if they bracket him with two defenders at nearly all times. They haven’t played a clear-cut No. 1 receiver like Adams since back in Week 1 when they held Deandre Hopkins to 8/78/0 on 11 targets. Some will point out Tyreek Hill a few weeks ago when he went off, but the Patriots have focused on stopping Travis Kelce as the top receiving option in the Chiefs matchups. There’s some risk with playing Adams this week and you probably shouldn’t have too much exposure in DFS, but he’s still a low-end WR1.

Geronimo Allison/Marquez Valdes-Scantling: After missing a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, Allison may have started to lose some snaps to the emerging Valdes-Scantling. He played just 57.7 percent of the snaps versus the Rams last week, which is a far-cry from the 70-80 percent of snaps he was playing in Weeks 1-4. The Packers only ran 52 plays in that game, so volume was low, but we have to pay attention to this going forward. Valdes-Scantling ran just one fewer route than Allison in that game and did run 73 percent of his routes on the perimeter. The Packers are likely going to have four wide receivers on the field more than usual in this game, so both may be utilized. Targets will be needed, as the Patriots have allowed just a 58.9 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, which is one of the lower marks in the league. Considering Allison was coming off a multi-week absence and he still ran one more route than MSV, we’ll say he’s the preferred option, though it’s close. Allison should be looked at as a high-end WR4 who comes with some risk, while Valdes-Scantling is a risk/reward WR4. Update: Allison has been labeled as ‘doubtful’ for this game, which certainly means he’s not playing. This bumps Valdes-Scantling into WR3 territory and one you should feel fairly comfortable playing. 

Randall Cobb: In his return to the lineup, he ran just 17 routes, which is much lower than the 40, 53, and 51 in Weeks 1-3. He did run 82 percent of his routes in the slot, while Valdes-Scantling ran just 27 percent from inside. It’s possible the Packers are just going to go with a four-man rotation at wide receiver until one of them just continually pops off the page. We know that Cobb hasn’t done that this year, but the Patriots slot cornerback Jonathan Jones is the best matchup on the field. He’s in the WR4 conversation with bye weeks here, but he’s towards the lower-end of that conversation with his lack of snaps last week.

Josh Gordon: After hearing that Gordon would be disciplined for being tardy to practice multiple times, he was on the field for his normal workload. He saw six targets in a tough matchup with Tre’Davious White, hauling in four of them for 42 yards, though he dropped what should have been a 30-plus yard gain. Unless we hear more about Gordon, assume that he’ll play as he normally would. The Packers used Jaire Alexander at LCB last week as he matched-up with Brandin Cooks most of the game, and he finished with just 3/74/0 on eight targets. Gordon plays on both sides, so he’ll also see Kevin King, who has been a tad hit-or-miss in his young career, flashing at times, disappearing others. The Packers cornerback situation is better than it was in years past, but the loss of Haha Clinton-Dix in the secondary should not go unnoticed by the Patriots. While the Packers have allowed just a 58.5 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, they’ve also allowed a touchdown every 10.8 targets to them. Knowing that Gordon has seen 22 targets over the last three games, he should be played as a solid WR2 this week.

Julian Edelman: The Packers tried something new last week and it worked for the most part, as they slid Tramon Williams into the slot and put Jaire Alexander on the perimeter. Williams did allow a touchdown in his coverage to Josh Reynolds, so that’s definitely something to watch, as playing the slot is extremely different than having a sideline to use to your advantage. Edelman is obviously one of the better slot receivers in the game and has seen at least seven targets in every game since his return, including eight red zone targets, which leads the team despite him missing the first four games. As mentioned in the Gordon notes, the Packers have allowed a wide receiver touchdown every 10.8 targets, which makes it a great time to plug Edelman in as a high-end WR2 who should score.

Chris Hogan: The return of Edelman has actually benefited Hogan, as he’s averaging 56.0 yards per game the last four weeks, compared to just 27.3 yards per game in the first four weeks. He hasn’t scored since way back in Week 2, but at least he’s moving in the right direction. He’s going to see the most of Jaire Alexander, who was moved out of the slot last week and trusted to defend Brandin Cooks. He did a great job, too. Alexander isn’t the biggest cornerback at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, but it’s hard to see Hogan gaining much separation against him, and Brady doesn’t throw up one-on-one targets to Hogan like he does with Gronkowski and Gordon. If Sony Michel is out again, we’ll likely see a lot of pass attempts, so Hogan should remain on the WR4/5 radar.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: I’ve gone through Graham’s game logs, watched all of the Packers games this year, and then dissected each of his opponents. Believe me when I say that there’s not much correlation between the two. He’s been a bit hit-or-miss with Rodgers and that should be expected in their first year together. The Patriots aren’t likely to make Graham a priority of their defense like they did Travis Kelce, and when that happens, we watched both Eric Ebron and Trey Burton each rack up nine catches for 100-plus yards and a touchdown against them. With Adams being a clear focal point, don’t be surprised to see Graham pop back up as a high-end TE1, even if last week was disappointing. Don’t forget that he had tallied 11 catches for 180 yards the previous two weeks.

Rob Gronkowski: What a week to trade away one of your safeties, eh Packers? They have done a phenomenal job with tight ends to this point, allowing the fifth-fewest points per game to them, but similar to the running back position, tight ends just haven’t seen a lot of targets against them. They’ve only totaled 46 targets, which amounts to just 6.6 per game. He looked healthy in the game against the Bills last week, though we did talk about it being a tough matchup. On the minimal tight end targets the Packers have seen, they’ve allowed a semi-high 7.96 yards per target, but have still yet to allow a touchdown. The loss of Clinton-Dix will be felt throughout the secondary, and the Patriots are just the team to take advantage of that. Some may be fed up and willing to move on, but if you can, buy-low on Gronkowski, who is a must-play TE1 this week.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 40.5
Line: DAL by 6.5

QBs
Marcus Mariota: Did the bye week do any wonders for the Titans offense? They had better hope so, because the defense is probably tired of carrying them, as they’ve allowed just 18.1 points per game (3rd in NFL), while the Titans offense has scored more than 20 points just once all season and average just 15.1 points per game. Mariota has been sacked 15 times over the last three weeks, and while the offensive line is part to blame, he’s walked into some of them on his own. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have tallied at least three sacks in 4-of-7 games this season. While the Cowboys haven’t allowed more than 24 points to an opposing offense this year, they have been a relatively high-floor matchup for opposing quarterbacks, as 5-of-7 have totaled at least 15 fantasy points, though none have topped 21 points. Every quarterback has posted at least one touchdown, whether it be rushing or passing, though none have totaled more than two. They’re the type of defense who’s willing to let you take the underneath stuff, as they’ve allowed a 68.8 percent completion rate (5th-highest) but have allowed a league-low 17 plays of 20-plus yards. As you can see, it’s a very mediocre matchup for Mariota, because while he lacks upside, he should be safe enough for 2QB leagues this week.

Dak Prescott: Through seven games, Prescott currently sits as the No. 23 quarterback with just eight touchdowns. He finished as the No. 11 quarterback in 2017 and the No. 6 quarterback in 2016. What happened between now and last year? Oh, right, they lost Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, yet failed to replace them. He’s now got Amari Cooper, who can gain more separation than both of those guys, though they’ve only been able to work with each other for two weeks, so we must keep expectations in check. The Titans have allowed at least two passing touchdowns to every quarterback not named Josh Allen, Blake Bortles, and Joe Flacco, though they’ve yet to allow three in one game. The offseason acquisition of Malcolm Butler hasn’t panned out, as he’s been among the worst cornerbacks in football through the first eight weeks. They do run a lot of man coverage, which should allow Prescott to run quite a bit against them, something he’s done much more the last three games, totaling 34, 82, and 33 yards in them with two rushing touchdowns. The Titans haven’t been bad enough to consider Prescott as anything more than a low-end QB2 in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game, though I do think he offers a decent floor with his legs.

RBs
Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: What in the world do we do with these two completely different running backs who can’t seem to get anything going, though Week 7 in London was their most productive game to date. Here’s a look at their numbers through the first seven games:

As you can see, Lewis has offered more upside, but he’s also offered a higher floor most of the time, as Henry seemingly scores anywhere from just 2.6 points to 6.5 points if he doesn’t score a touchdown (got his first one in Week 7). Maybe the bye week helped them work through some things? The issue is that Dallas has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to this point in the season, and they’ve done it on a consistent basis, as they’ve yet to allow more than 112 rushing yards to an entire team of running backs. With the core of Sean Lee, Jaylon Smith, and Leighton Vander Esch playing well against the run, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success against them. Consider Lewis a middling RB3, while Henry is just a touchdown-dependent RB4, though the Cowboys have allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season.

Ezekiel Elliott: One underrated thing most didn’t talk about after the Cooper trade was the effect that it’d have on Elliott, as he’s continually been the focal point of the opposing defense. Not that he won’t still be that guy, but defenses now have something else to worry about, as Cooper can take the top of a defense if a safety cheats. The issue with expecting him to blow-up here is that the Titans run-defense has been lights out once again. I say that because they’ve been a top-10 defense against fantasy running backs for now three straight seasons. They’ve allowed just six rushing touchdowns over their last 23 games. Think about that for a minute. They’re allowing 4.08 yards per carry, which is roughly the league-average, but they’re elite in just about everything else. They’ve allowed just two total touchdowns to running backs (best in NFL), just 47.4 PPR points through the air to running backs (best in the NFL), and just 4.24 yards per target to running backs. It’s why you’ve yet to see a running back top 17 PPR points against them. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule to this point, so it’s possible we’re overrating them, but Elliott seems to be more of a middling RB1 this week than an elite one.

WRs
Corey Davis: You may not like it, but Davis should’ve been on your buy-low list this week. After playing against Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey, Tre’Davious White, Brandon Carr/Jimmy Smith, and Casey Hayward in the first seven weeks, it’s hard to say that you should’ve expected much from him. He’ll match-up with the Cowboys cornerbacks this week, who have been better than expected, but he should be able to snag enough passes to post respectable totals. After that, he’ll play the Patriots, Colts, Texans, and Jets. The Cowboys have oddly allowed just four wide receivers to post 13 or more PPR points against them, though it’s worth mentioning that just four wide receivers have seen more than six targets against them. They aren’t allowing the big play, but they are allowing everything underneath, as evidenced by their 8.65 yards per target to wide receivers. The issue for receivers has been volume, as the Cowboys have had to defend just 112 wide receiver targets on the season, which is the second-lowest in the league.

Amari Cooper: He’s only had two weeks with the team to learn the playbook, but that’s better than one, right? He’ll walk into a Cowboys offense that has seen their wide receivers targeted just 125 times all year, as none of them seemed to be doing the role that was asked of them, though Michael Gallup had been slowly gaining momentum. Now Cooper walks in and after giving up a first-round pick for him, you’d better believe they’ll be targeting him heavily. There’s been 34 games in his career where he’s seen six or more targets. In those games, he’s averaged 5.6 receptions for 81.8 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. Stupidly, there’s been 18 games (35 percent of the time) in his career where he’s seen just five or less targets. In those games, he’s averaged just 1.9 receptions for 22.9 yards and 0.22 touchdowns. The matchup with the Titans cornerbacks is a good one, too, as Malcolm Butler has been a bust while allowing five touchdowns on 43 targets in coverage, and a big reason why the Titans have allowed a 67 percent catch-rate, 9.07 yards per target, and a touchdown every 15.2 targets to wide receivers this year. While you could wonder why they haven’t started using Adoree Jackson in shadow coverage, we have no reason to think they’ll start now, especially when there’s no tape on how the Cowboys plan to use Cooper. The 1.97 PPR points per target that they’ve allowed to wide receivers is seventh-most in the league, so here’s to hoping Cooper is targeted heavily. With all the question marks around wide receivers and six teams on bye, Cooper is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Cole Beasley: We don’t know how the addition of Cooper will affect the combination of Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns, but it shouldn’t change Beasley’s role too much, though it’d be wise to get Cooper in the slot a bit more than the Raiders did. Logan Ryan has been decent in the slot for the Titans and not the reason for all their struggles, though he’s also not someone you need to gameplan against. Of the full-time slot receivers who’ve played against them, the best game was Willie Snead‘s 7/60/0, so Beasley shouldn’t be considered a great bye week option.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: He’s not someone you want to debate playing, as he’s seen just 13 targets despite Delanie Walker going down in Week 1. In fact, Luke Stocker has produced more than Smith has, and Stocker hasn’t seen more than two targets in any one game. This is a tight end situation to avoid, especially against the Cowboys who allow the sixth-fewest points to the position.

Dalton Schultz: It doesn’t seem like Geoff Swaim will be able to play this game considering he was diagnosed with a sprained MCL after their Week 7 game. He took a nasty hit, but looking at what happened with the rest of the tight end situation, we had Schultz run 10 routes, Blake Jarwin ran nine, and Rico Gathers ran two. Schultz was the one targeted three times, so that’s why he’s here as their top option. However, none of them are playable against the Titans, who are the No. 1 ranked team against tight ends this year and are one of just two teams who have yet to allow a touchdown to the position.

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 47.0
Line: SF by 2.5

QBs
Derek Carr: I wish I could say that it was surprising to see Carr have a decent game in Week 8, but it’s not. He’s been someone who’s been up-and-down throughout his career, posting big numbers from time-to-time. Look no further than his 437-yard, four-touchdown outburst against the Browns back in Week 4 (was easily the biggest performance they have allowed this season). Still, you have to give him props knowing that his starting wide receiver corps was Jordy Nelson, Brandon LaFell, and Seth Roberts. He’ll travel just over the bridge to San Francisco this week to play a 49ers defense that’s had some bad injury luck on defense. Top cornerback Richard Sherman returned last week, but linebacker Rueben Foster injured his hamstring and safety Jaquiski Tartt left with a shoulder injury during their Week 8 loss to the Cardinals. On the season, they’ve now allowed 7-of-8 quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns against them, though it’s important to understand their level of competition this year, as they’ve played Cousins, Stafford, Mahomes, Rivers, Rodgers, and Goff, which has been the toughest schedule possible. That could explain why he’s a 2-plus point underdog while going against the 1-7 49ers. Neither of these teams play at a fast pace (both average less than 64 plays per game), so it could be one of those boring Thursday night games where you really don’t want to start anyone. Carr is on the low-end QB2 radar, though he should at least offer a 250-yard, one-touchdown floor for those in 2QB formats.

C.J. Beathard: His first three games taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo: 297.3 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game, 18.8 fantasy points. His last two games: 180.0 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game, 9.3 fantasy points. He’s played two divisional opponents, so we do need to cut him a little slack. The Raiders defense is near the top of the league in fantasy points per pass attempt (0.61), yards per attempt (8.63), touchdown percentage (7.04 percent), and they’ve only been getting worse. After allowing just two passing scores over the first two weeks, they’ve now allowed 13 of them in their last five games, including eight on the last 81 attempts. They benched cornerback Rashaan Melvin last week, which is likely due to his recent social media posts, and though we don’t know much about how they plan to handle him this week, we must assume they’re moving forward with Daryl Worley, Gareon Conley, and Leon Hall in the secondary. The issue for Beathard is that he doesn’t have pass-catchers to take advantage of the matchup. He also injured his right (throwing) wrist last week and is reportedly questionable for this game.Knowing that teams are averaging just 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Raiders (second-lowest in NFL), Beathard will have to be efficient, something that’s hard to do with his wrist/weapons. He’s not a fantasy option this week.

RBs
Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: In his first game as the starter, Martin looked solid against the Colts, posting 72 rushing yards on 13 carries, which is a mark that Marshawn Lynch hit just once during his six starts this year. While I’m not comparing apples to apples, Martin obviously didn’t do anything to lose a hold of the starting job for the Raiders. The 49ers run defense has been much better than it looks on paper, as they’ve allowed just one running back to total more than 65 yards on the ground against them, and that was Todd Gurley (who doesn’t count). Keep in mind they’ve played against Melvin Gordon, David Johnson (twice), Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, and Kerryon Johnson. The area where Martin will need to do his damage is the red zone, where the 49ers have allowed seven rushing touchdowns, which ranks as fourth-most in the league. The issue is that Martin and Lynch have combined for just five carries inside the five-yard-line this year, while Carr has thrown the ball seven times. Martin should be considered a low-end RB2 this week with six teams on bye, but the matchup may not be as great as some think. Richard had essentially the same role in the offense, as he totaled just two carries and saw eight targets, though he did catch them all for 50 yards. There have been four running backs who’ve totaled at least 40 yards through the air against the 49ers, so Richard can be considered an RB4 in standard and an RB3 in PPR formats.

Matt Breida and Alfred Morris: As it turns out, you cannot trust anyone on the 49ers except for Breida, though that’s even hard to do considering he’s now scored less than five PPR points in each of the last two games while trying to play through injury. We have an interesting scenario, though, as the Raiders are a legitimate bad run-defense. Some will automatically say, “Well, Mike, the Cardinals are the worst run-defense in the league and Breida did nothing in that matchup last week,” which is fair, though it’s a weekly game and we have to approach it as such. The Raiders have played seven games this year. In five of those games, they’ve allowed opposing running backs at least 113 yards on the ground, including 224 yards to the Colts running backs while at home last week. Provided Breida didn’t aggravate anything last week, he should be a rock-solid RB2 in this game. Morris seems to be the backup to Breida, though it makes little sense when Raheem Mostert has looked 10 times better than both Breida and Morris over the last three games. As of this time, you cannot trust Morris or Mostert as anything more than a tournament DFS option, though Mostert would be my pick because he actually offers upside.

WRs
Jordy Nelson: So much for Amari Cooper leaving and opening up some targets for Nelson, as he saw just four targets in Week 8, resulting in one catch for 14 yards. He’s now seen just 11 targets over the last three weeks and has run just 24 percent of his routes in the slot during that time, which will severely cut-off his production. If Richard Sherman is back out there this week, he’ll see Nelson most of the time, which is bad for Nelson’s sake, as he’s clearly their top cornerback on the roster. The 49ers were forced to go back with Ahkello Witherspoon at RCB last week and he’s been among the worst in football over the first half of the season, so it’s possible that Nelson does some work against him, though I’m not banking on it. Outside of one game against the Dolphins where they legitimately forgot to cover him on multiple occasions, Nelson has yet to top 48 yards. He’s just a weak WR5 option in fantasy right now.

Brandon LaFell/Martavis Bryant: After the Raiders coaches talked-up Bryant last week, they played the soon-to-be 32-year-old LaFell over him. This is so Gruden. He played a team-high 46 snaps, while Bryant played… wait for it… a season-low 7 snaps. LaFell did score a touchdown against the Colts, but he’s not someone I could talk myself into playing, as he’d have to get it done over and over because he’s not going to break a big play at this point in his career. Still, he’s probably the Raiders receiver who has the highest floor at this point. As for Bryant, his usage is so odd, as the Colts were without their star free safety Malik Hooker last week and the deep area of the field could’ve been exploited. The 49ers have allowed five plays of 40-plus yards, so the Raiders would be wise to take a few shots to Bryant. He’s strictly a DFS Showdown option, but one who would make sense to play at low-ish ownership.

Seth Roberts: I mentioned here last week that it’s possible Roberts becomes the go-to target in the red zone, as he scored 10 touchdowns in the first two years that he and Carr played together. He’s going to have the best matchup most weeks running 70-plus percent of his routes in the slot, but despite his 17 targets over the last three weeks, he’s still yet to top 42 yards. The 49ers K’Waun Williams just had a rough game against Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s not someone you’ve actively wanted to target in matchups this year. Williams has allowed almost 10.0 yards per target in his slot coverage, but he’s yet to allow a touchdown in his direct coverage. Roberts is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent WR6.

Marquise Goodwin: The good news is that Goodwin beat Patrick Peterson for a 55-yard touchdown last week. The bad news is that he saw just four targets even with Pierre Garcon out of the lineup. He’s the equivalent of Tyrell Williams of the Chargers who has not seen more than five targets, only Williams has Philip Rivers throwing him the ball, while Goodwin has Beathard. Still, he and Beathard have connected pretty well on their last 14 targets, producing 205 yards and three touchdowns. The Raiders did a good job with speedster T.Y. Hilton last week (1/34/0) and have oddly not allowed a single 100-yard receiver against them. He’s going to see Gareon Conley in coverage, last year’s first-round pick who is essentially playing his rookie season in 2018. He’s been solid in coverage while allowing just a 48.1 percent catch-rate, but he is allowing a large 19.3 yards per reception, which ranks as third-highest in the NFL. Goodwin is a boom-or-bust WR4, but considering the matchup, he might hit another ‘boom’ this week.

TEs
Jared Cook: While Cook didn’t see as many targets as we expected with Cooper gone, he did produce like we’d hoped against the Colts, totaling four catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. He ranks seventh among tight ends in targets (48), fourth in yardage (474), and fourth in touchdowns (3). Knowing they have a bad defense and that the receiving corps lacks a go-to option, he’s going to continue to be heavily utilized. The 49ers have been a little bit below average against the tight end position, allowing three top-12 performances, though Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham were two of them. Still, there’ve been just four tight ends who’ve seen at least five targets against them. Ricky Seals-Jones was the only one who failed to post top-12 numbers. If safety Jaquiski Tartt is forced to miss this game, the 49ers will be forced to play undrafted free agent Tyvis Powell or Antone Exum in his place. Cook is someone who should be able to post solid TE1 numbers in this game.

George Kittle: There are just three tight ends with more targets (57) than Kittle this year, and just two tight ends with more yards (584) than him. Those two tight ends are Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. While the Raiders were considered a “bad” matchup for tight ends based on fantasy points allowed heading into last week, I let all of you know that it wasn’t the case and that they’re actually a team you should be targeting with tight ends. It worked out, as Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle combined for 9/107/2 last week. They’ve now allowed the seventh-most points per game to tight ends, but that still doesn’t show just how bad they’ve been. They have now allowed a league-high 10.7 yards per target (nobody else over 10.1) and 2.69 PPR points per target (nobody else over 2.16) to the position. Kittle hasn’t seen less than six targets since way back in Week 2, so get him into lineups as an elite-level TE1.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.