Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 48.0
Line: SEA by 2.0

QBs
Philip Rivers: He might be having his best season to date, as he’s completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt, with a 17:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game, including three touchdowns in 3-of-7 games. He meets his match this week, as the Seahawks defense has been legit through eight weeks. Despite losing Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor, they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Their competition hasn’t been what you’d call elite, but they’ve have played against Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Mitch Trubisky, and have yet to allow a top-12 quarterback performance. They’ve allowed just as many touchdowns as they have interceptions (10) on the year, something just one other team can say (the Browns, believe it or not). It’s also important to note that the Seahawks have played just two home games. The total seems high for this game taking place in Seattle, as the Chargers are expected to score 23.0 points. I’ve been expecting the Seahawks defense to come back down to earth, but it’s just hard to see that happening at home this week. Rivers is just a high-end QB2 who remains in play for tournaments, but he comes with risk if the Seahawks continue to play lights out football.

Russell Wilson: After throwing seven touchdowns on his first 121 attempts of the season (very respectable 5.8 percent touchdown rate), Wilson has now thrown nine touchdowns on his last 61 attempts (14.8 percent), or one every 6.8 attempts. He’s clearly playing fantastic football right now, but there’s definitely cause for concern. He’s now gone five straight weeks where he’s thrown the ball 26 times or less. I don’t care if you’re Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or anyone else, you aren’t going to produce elite fantasy numbers with such little volume. On top of that, he’s still yet to rush for more than 21 yards. Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick both have more rushing yards than him and they’ve played less than five games. The Chargers defense has played much better as of late, and when you look at their early season struggles, should we really hold that against them when they played Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff? The competition got much easier over the last four games, as they’ve played C.J. Beathard, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, and Marcus Mariota, so it’s possible that’s the reason for their turnaround. They’ve still allowed 7.77 yards per attempt, which ranks as the eighth-most in the NFL, so it’s not a matchup where Wilson is an obvious avoid, though he’s not going to continue throwing touchdowns at his current pace. He should be considered a low-end QB1 who’s going to struggle in fantasy if they continue this whole low-volume thing.

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Gordon tweaked his hamstring before the Week 7 game against the Titans and was forced to miss that game, but the question becomes… will he miss this game? The Chargers have openly said that it’s a long season and they know hamstring injuries can be tricky, though they’re encouraged by his progress. He’s likely to be a game-time decision, but don’t be shocked if they play it safe with him. The Seahawks aren’t a pushover matchup, either, as they’ve allowed just 3.87 yards per carry on the season and that’s despite not having linebacker K.J. Wright for the first six games of the season. He returned against the Lions and they held the duo of Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount to just 25 yards on 11 carries last week. If there’s an area to exploit, it’s through the air, which both Gordon and Ekeler do very well. If Gordon plays, you have to play him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who might see a limited workload. Ekeler would remain on the RB3 radar due to the question marks surrounding Gordon’s health. If Gordon sits, Ekeler becomes somewhat of a must-play RB2. Update: Gordon practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday, but got in a full practice on Friday, so he’s trending on the probable side. 

Chris Carson: Let’s do the same exercise we did last week with the Seahawks running backs. Here’s the touch chart through the weeks…

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis, though you shouldn’t trust either of them. Carson has averaged 23.8 touches per game in his last four games played, so he’s clearly the No. 1 running back to play here, though that can clearly change at any minute. The Chargers opponents have averaged just 24.6 carries per game, which ranks as the 13th-fewest in the NFL, though a lot of that comes down to gamescript. They’ve allowed 4.47 yards per carry on the year, and we’ve seen both Todd Gurley and Dion Lewis total more than 90 yards on the ground against them, but they’ve allowed just three rushing scores. Gurley was the only one who totaled more than 16 carries against them, so it’s not wise to rely on heavy volume from Carson here, though he’s still in the low-end RB2 conversation. Davis and Penny are nothing more than hail-mary options, but judging by the touches last week, Davis is ahead of Penny on the depth chart. Update: Carson is dealing with a hip injury that kept him out of parts of practice this week, making him a bit more risky than usual. 

WRs
Keenan Allen: It seems I need to remind everyone weekly about Allen starting out slow last season too, as I see questions about whether or not you should trade him away. The answer is a swift “no” for me right now, as his stock is at its low-point. It’s only going to move north as the weeks go on and it could start this week against Justin Coleman, the slot cornerback for the Seahawks. After starting out the season playing pretty well in plus-matchups, he’s struggled over the last three weeks, allowing 18-of-23 passing for 157 yards and a touchdown. He did intercept Matthew Stafford last week (his first this season), but the matchup shouldn’t be considered a tough one.  Coleman is a former undrafted free agent who’s played well considering, but Allen will break out of his shell soon. Continue to plug him in as a high-end WR2.

Tyrell Williams: We’ve witnessed Williams post 118 yards in back-to-back weeks, but did you know he’s still yet to see more than five targets in a game? He’s obviously hit the big plays over the last three weeks while averaging 30.2 yards per reception, but do you want to continue relying on that against the Seahawks who have allowed just 7.23 yards per target to wide receivers, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. They’ve allowed just one 40-plus yard pass all season, which doesn’t bode well for his chances to hit the lottery this week. If there’s one cornerback he’ll see more than the others, it’s Shaquill Griffin, who is widely considered as their top cornerback in coverage. Williams is just a high-risk WR4/5 option this week and not one you should feel pressured to play.

Mike Williams: Ever since his Week 3 breakout performance where he hauled in 81 yards and two touchdowns, he’s been relatively quiet in fantasy, though he did catch a 55-yard touchdown in their London game. On the year, the Seahawks have allowed just seven wide receivers to finish with double-digit PPR days, and each of them saw at least seven targets, something that Williams hasn’t seen since back in Week 3. It’s tough to completely cross him off with how well Rivers is playing, but he’s just a touchdown-or-bust WR5 at this point and not one I’d be looking to play in Week 9. He does, however, remain a high-upside stash on rosters.

Doug Baldwin: Was I wrong on Baldwin last week? Yep. But here’s the thing – if you’d have told me before the game that Wilson was going to throw three touchdowns (there were actually four, though one was overturned due to penalty), I’d recommend using him again. Baldwin did catch a ball in the end zone, but failed to get his second foot down, though he actually should have. The lack of volume in the Seahawks offense is creating serious volatility for the pass-catchers, so we have to lower expectations for everyone. The Chargers weakest link in the secondary is slot cornerback Desmond King, who has allowed an 82 percent catch-rate in his coverage. It’s quite funny because of the 33 times he’s been targeted, just four passes have hit the ground, as he’s intercepted two of them. With Casey Hayward likely latching onto Tyler Lockett, Baldwin makes sense, but then again, he did last week. He should be considered a high-end WR3 who we shouldn’t overreact about considering Wilson threw the ball just 17 times last week.

Tyler Lockett: What’s funniest about everyone being mad about Baldwin is that they’re completely fine with Lockett. Why? Because he scored, of course. Nevermind the fact that he’s caught just five passes for 47 yards the last two weeks. Yes, production matters, but you don’t want to overrate touchdowns, especially when Wilson’s going to regress in the touchdown department. The Chargers are allowing a wide receiver touchdown once every 16.1 targets, which does rank as the 12th-most, so maybe Lockett finds the end zone for the seventh time in eight games? It’s unlikely considering he’s going to see the most of Casey Hayward, their best cornerback who’s been lights out over the last three weeks. Lockett should be on the low-end WR3 radar due to how well him and Wilson are connecting, but he’s far from a sure thing this week.

David Moore: Now that Brandon Marshall has been released, it’s fair to say that Moore is a thing moving forward. He’d been splitting snaps with Marshall and Jaron Brown, but Moore had been on the better side of production, now totaling 182 yards and four touchdowns on just 11 targets over the last three games. There’s obviously no way his production can keep up with such little volume, but he’s going to be on the field in 3WR sets. As mentioned in the Lockett section, the Chargers have allowed a touchdown every 16.1 targets to wide receivers, so it’s not the worst matchup. He’s going to see the most of Trevor Williams, who has really struggled in coverage this year after playing top-notch football last year. He’s allowed a 132.8 QB Rating in his coverage, including a touchdown every 9.7 targets on his own. While I fully expect regression to hit him soon, he’s on the WR4 radar with bye weeks in full effect.

TEs
Antonio Gates: We’ve now seen the Chargers play seven games, and the tight ends have seen a combination of 31 targets, or just 4.4 targets per game. Gates has seen 21 of them, but has turned them into just 123 yards and a touchdown, while Virgil Green has turned his 10 targets into 104 yards and a touchdown. Neither of them are good options against the Seahawks, who have had Bradley McDougald erasing tight ends from the picture. There’s been no tight end who’s totaled more than 52 yards against the Seahawks and there’s been just one touchdown to them, which was on a shovel pass to Trey Burton. Don’t play Chargers tight ends if you want to win.

Ed Dickson: In his first game with the Seahawks, Dickson totaled 54 yards and hauled in a touchdown. While that’s all fine and dandy, he did only run seven pass routes all game, while Nick Vannett ran nine of them, so it’s a timeshare. With the lack of targets to go around, the last thing we need is a timeshare at tight end. The Chargers have allowed two massive games to tight ends, though they were to two heavily targeted tight ends, as George Kittle delivered 6/125/1 on eight targets, while David Njoku totaled 7/55/1 on 12 targets. All other tight ends finished outside the top-10 options against the Chargers. Despite those big lines, they’ve allowed just 6.1 yards per target to tight ends, which isn’t promising. Just wait until we see what’s going on with the Dickson/Vannett timeshare for another week.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Total: 46.0
Line: DEN by 1.5

QBs
Deshaun Watson: After losing Will Fuller on Thursday night football to a torn ACL, the Texans front office went out and got his replacement in Demaryius Thomas, trading away a fourth-round pick for him. While he won’t stretch the field the way Fuller did, he adds another weapon across from Hopkins. The Broncos defense has come to life the last three weeks, totaling 13 sacks, five interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. They obviously struggled against the Chiefs, but who doesn’t? Watson’s offensive line is going to have to pray for an off day for the Broncos pass-rushers, because despite the Dolphins not tallying a single sack last week, Watson is still the second-most sacked quarterback in the NFL. He’s going to have to get the ball out quick or run with the ball, which hasn’t been an option for quarterbacks against Denver, as they’ve allowed just 46 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, which is the second-fewest in the league. This game has one of the lower totals, will be played on the road (in Denver of all places), and it’s not an easy matchup for mobile quarterbacks. While you don’t want to doubt Watson a week after he threw five touchdowns, but he’s just a high-end QB2 in this game.

Case Keenum: Here’s Keenum’s game averages with Demaryius Thomas: 263.8 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 1.3 interceptions, and 14.0 fantasy points per game, which is the QB29 this year. What do his numbers look like without Thomas? Well, we’re going to find out here shortly. The good news for Keenum is that his backup Chad Kelly was cut by the Broncos, so he may have more job security. While the Texans secondary has had its fair share of injuries, their front-seven has helped masked some of their issues by generating at least two sacks in each game, including four sacks in three of the last six games. Keenum lost left guard Ron Leary a few weeks back and may be without his right tackle Jared Veldheer once again, which is likely a big part of the reason the Chiefs were able to sack him five times last week. With J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney (combined for 12.5 sacks) coming after him, Keenum might be forced into some bad decisions. It’ll also be a learning curve without Thomas, so he may not be the best streaming option in Week 9, though the fact that the Texans are starting two safeties and a rookie at cornerback is appealing. He’s a middling QB2 this week.

RBs
Lamar Miller: After being left for dead by many, Miller has now posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown in each of them. It’s important to note that the Dolphins is one of the best matchups a running back can ask for, but Miller had struggled even in plus-matchups earlier in the season. The Broncos look like a terrible run defense on paper, as they were the first team in NFL history to allow back-to-back 200-yard rushers, but it seemed they sold out to stop the pass against the Rams. There’s no excuse for the Crowell 200-yard game, but they have bounced back the last two weeks, holding David Johnson and Kareem Hunt to just 89 yards on 30 carries (2.97 yards per carry) and no touchdowns. They did allow those two backs eight catches for 67 yards and a touchdown, but Miller has seen just eight targets the last three weeks, totaling just 3/24/0 in all three weeks combined. You are obviously feeling better about Miller after his recent play, but he’s more of a low-end RB2 in this matchup than a must-play.

Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, and Devontae Booker: We don’t know if Freeman will return to action this week, though with the way Lindsay and Booker played last week, they may play it safe with him. Lindsay has been phenomenal this year, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the season. In fact, there’s been no game where he’s averaged less than 4.5 yards per carry, which is extremely tough to do. He’s recorded at least 90 rushing yards and a touchdown in each of their last two games, but he’ll face a tough test against the Texans this week. They have allowed just 3.52 yards per carry on the season (5th-lowest) and just two rushing scores, but they aren’t a top-10 defense against running backs. How is that? Well, they’ve allowed 107.4 PPR points to running backs through the air alone, which is the seventh-most in the NFL. They’re the only team in the NFL who’s allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs, so it’s important to look at the split in passing-down work between the two. Lindsay has 23 targets on the season, while Booker has 25. Even last week, we saw Lindsay get three targets, Booker get four targets. Now with Demaryius Thomas gone, it could free up even more targets, so Lindsay should be considered a low-end RB2, while Booker should be able to offer RB4 value in standard leagues and RB3 value in PPR formats. Update: Freeman is listed as questionable, though he’s not a great play even if he does suit up. 

WRs
DeAndre Hopkins: Some will wonder what the trade for Thomas does to Hopkins’ value, though I don’t think it changes it much. Even with Will Fuller on the field, Hopkins had seen 78 targets, which ranks seventh in the NFL. It’s very unlikely Thomas has the impact that Fuller did in this offense. The Broncos will have Bradley Roby in coverage this week, as Adam Jones has been out since Week 5 (though he did start practicing last week), and the Broncos have been forced to go with Tramaine Brock. It’s odd, but Jones may be their best cornerback to handle Hopkins, as he’s battled with him before while in Cincinnati, but he only ‘contained’ him in those matchups. Roby has allowed 486 yards and four touchdowns on 51 targets in coverage this year, as he’s failed to live up to the Aqib Talib role they needed him for. Hopkins should be an elite WR1 play this week who comes with as much upside as ever.

Demaryius Thomas: There’s going to be a lot of questions on Thomas this week, but here’s the issue… he was traded on Tuesday and will travel to Houston, get into practice on Wednesday while trying to learn a new playbook and get acquainted with his new quarterback, then get back on a plane to Denver to play a game on Sunday. Thomas is obviously used to going up against these cornerbacks in practice and if Adam Jones can’t play for a fourth-straight game, he’s see Tramaine Brock in coverage, a 49ers cast-off who hasn’t been very good throughout his career. It’s tough to say Thomas is anything more than a WR4 in his first game with the Texans, but if anyone knows the weaknesses of the defense, it’s him.

Keke Coutee: As of the time I’m writing this, Coutee is viewed as a long-shot to play, as Bill O’Brien said it’s too early to tell with a hamstring injury, as they tend to linger. Knowing that Coutee was trying to play through it earlier in the year, my expectation is that they’ll rest him with their bye week coming right after this game. Even if he plays, it’s a terrible matchup against Chris Harris Jr, the best slot cornerback in the game. He’s not an option right now.

Emmanuel Sanders: The Broncos offense is going to look a lot different with Demaryius Thomas off of it, as he’s been a staple on the team since 2010. The real question I have that most people don’t seem to think about is what this means for Sanders. He’s been running 65 percent of his routes in the slot, so does this mean that he’s going to play on the perimeter the majority of time? If so, it’s a downgrade for him as those slot targets have been a major part of his production this year. He’s caught 26-of-33 targets for 277 yards and two touchdowns in the slot, though he’s obviously had success on the perimeter as well. He’s still someone who’s likely to see eight-plus targets every single week, so he’s going to be a must-start most weeks. The Texans have lose cornerbacks Kevin Johnson, Kelvin Webster, and maybe Aaron Colvin for the year, while Johnathan Joseph is set to miss time with a sprained MCL. They now have Tyrann Mathieu playing the nickel with Kareem Jackson and Natrell Jamerson on the perimeter. This is not ideal. Jackson has played the slot and safety through most of his career while allowing a 96.3 QB Rating in his coverage, Mathieu has been mediocre at best in coverage when asked to cover the slot, and Jamerson is a fifth-round rookie who is playing because of all the injuries and not due to his talent. Sanders should be played as a WR2 this week considering the lack of talent in the Texans secondary.

Courtland Sutton: The Broncos have told us that it’s Sutton-time after trading away Thomas, so he needs to be added in all formats. Over the last two years in this offense, Thomas has seen an average of 8.2 targets per game, so that’s what Sutton is going to be looking at before long. While he may not get the entire portion of the pie, he’s going to be close. He was already averaging 4.6 targets per game, so we’re looking at a significant bump. The Texans have some injury issues in their secondary and are now starting two safeties and a fifth-round rookie at cornerback. The Texans year-long stats look very good overall against wide receivers, as they’ve allowed just 1.58 PPR points per target (ranks fourth-fewest) to wide receivers and a touchdown once every 28.7 targets (fourth-best in NFL), but the injuries on their defense make the matchup much more appealing. We saw DeVante Parker finish with 6/134/0 on nine targets against them last week, so plug Sutton in as a high-end WR3.

TEs
Jordan Thomas: The acquisition of Demaryius Thomas cooled-off the Thomas waiver wire talk, though Thomas should still be considered this week with Coutee likely out and Demaryius playing his first game with the team on just a few days’ notice. After catching all four of his targets against the Dolphins (who have been good against tight ends) for 29 yards and two touchdowns, he must’ve gained some momentum on the depth chart. The Broncos are also a team who’s susceptible against tight ends, as they’ve allowed 9.5 yards per target, which is the third-most in the NFL. Of course, playing against Travis Kelce twice will do that to a defense, but they’ve also just faced one other tight end who saw more than four targets, which was Will Dissly when he posted 105 yards and a touchdown. Thomas is a risky streamer, but if Ryan Griffin is out again, he’s in the TE2 conversation.

Jeff Heuerman: After going target-less in the Week 7 game against the Cardinals (where Keenum threw just 21 passes), Heuerman went back to his normal role that’s actually been pretty big since Jake Butt‘s season-ending injury. Outside of that Cardinals game, he’s been targeted in between 4-7 times per game, so he’s definitely streaming material in the right matchup. The Texans aren’t a bad matchup, especially when you consider they have to start safeties Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu at cornerback, leaving last year’s sixth-round pick Mike Tyson to start at safety. Even before all of this, the Texans had been a plus-matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed a 76.1 percent catch-rate to them (2nd-highest mark in NFL) and 8.7 yards per target. With Thomas gone, there’s going to be some targets that are distributed throughout the offense and Heuerman could benefit, putting him on the TE2 radar this week, though he’s far from a sure thing considering he’s he hasn’t topped 23 yards since back in Week 4 against the Chiefs.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Total: 60.0
Line: NO by 2.0

QBs
Jared Goff: It seems as if Goff will get back Kupp this week, which brings the band back together going into a game that has massive consequences against the Saints. Teams average 36.3 pass attempts against them, which is great news for Goff considering he’s thrown the ball more than 32 times four times this year, and in those games, he’s totaled 233/2, 354/3, 465/5, and 295/3. That’s an average of 336.8 yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game. Knowing that the Saints have still yet to allow a running back reach 70 yards on the ground, this could be a game where Goff is leaned on more than usual. The Saints are a team to exploit through the air, too, as they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (24.7), the 10th-highest touchdown rate (5.9 percent), the second-most yards per attempt (8.7), and the fourth-highest completion rate (70.1 percent) to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed seven passing plays to go for more than 40 yards, the fourth-most in the league. Keep in mind that all these numbers came while playing against Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, and Kirk Cousins. This game figures to be a shootout, and one you definitely want a part of. He’s an elite QB1 start this week.

Drew Brees: When I called Brees a sell-high a couple weeks ago, I didn’t expect 332 yards and three touchdowns over the span of two games. That’s not what you’d call great and he’s now thrown the ball 32 times or less in each of his last four games. Outside of his record-breaking night against the Redskins, he’s failed to top 16.8 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Are the Rams the cure? Well, three of the last four teams to play them have totaled 30 attempts or less, including Aaron Rodgers last week. A large part of that is due to the fact that nobody can stop the Rams run-game, but the Saints should be able to slow it down. This game figures to be a shootout and in games where quarterbacks have thrown more than 30 passes against the Rams, they’ve averaged 349.0 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. The play-calling of the Packers was questionable at best, as it seemed like they were content with a small lead and sitting on the ball, but the Saints know better. The Rams have allowed just five touchdowns to running backs this year, while allowing a touchdown every 12.4 targets to wide receivers, which ranks as the fifth-lowest ratio in football. This is a week where Brees will have to return to his passing ways and should be looked at as a high-end QB1.

RBs
Todd Gurley: What has the world come to when some view 195 total yards and a touchdown as a “down week” for Gurley? He actually should’ve had 198 yards and two touchdowns, but he did what was best for his team and laid down before scoring a touchdown to secure the win. He’s played half the season and now has more fantasy points than all but seven running backs from 2017. He’s currently on pace for 2,302 total yards and 30 touchdowns. He’s facing his toughest competition of the year this week, as the Saints have completely shut-down opposing run games while allowing just 2.87 yards per carry and five total touchdowns (4 rushing, 1 receiving) to them through seven games. In fact, there hasn’t been a running back who’s totaled 70 yards on the ground against them. The closest comp that’s played against them was Saquon Barkley, who totaled 110 total yards and a touchdown, which netted the No. 13 performance that week. He’s the only one who was able to finish as a top-20 running back against them this year. You’re going to play Gurley in season-long no matter who is on the field, but as for DFS, his price is so high ($9500 on DraftKings, $11,200 on FanDuel) that it’s tough to say he should play in cash. I’ve been riding him for weeks (on DK) and probably will again, but there’s risk.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: Over the last two weeks, the touch distribution between the two is Kamara 39, Ingram 30, though Kamara has three touchdowns while Ingram has none. This backfield has enough touches to produce fantasy results for both, though the matchups the last two weeks have been tough with the Vikings and Ravens. Going into those games, both teams were top-10 teams against fantasy running backs, and now they have to go against the Rams defense who are the No. 9 defense against fantasy running backs. They’ve allowed a very high 4.75 yards per carry on the year, but have legitimately shut-down pass-catching running backs, allowing just 4.02 yards per target to them and are one of just five teams who’ve yet to allow a receiving touchdown to them. The only team who allows less is the Ravens, who held Kamara to the RB16 and Ingram to the RB37. But the Ravens are elite against the run, too. There’s been just one time all season where a team of running backs have totaled more than 22 carries against the Rams, and in that game the Seahawks running backs combined for 184 yards and a touchdown. In a home game where the total sits at 60, you want to play the Saints backfield. I’d consider Kamara a middling RB1, while Ingram should be considered a high-end RB2 who is probably the better tournament play coming off two poor performances.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: He wanted out of New Orleans and got his wish, but now returns for the second time since his departure. In his Week 2 game against them last year, he finished with just two catches for 37 yards, though the Saints defense has been struggling a bit more this year. They’ve currently allowed a league-high 2.27 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which stems from everything… High catch-rate (72.8 percent), yards per target (10.4), and touchdowns (one every 12.1 targets). They’ve also allowed seven 40-plus yard passing plays, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. The Saints are likely to stick Marshon Lattimore on him, as he’s got the speed needed to keep up with Cooks. If that’s the case, he’s got the toughest matchup on the field, as he did last year against them. Lattimore hasn’t been flawless, but he’s been much better since allowing Mike Evans a monster game in Week 1. He almost waits until the wide receiver makes his break to follow rather than anticipate, relying on his athleticism to make up the gap. If Goff can be pinpoint, Cooks can beat him. While I’d probably prefer Woods, Cooks is a solid WR2 play.

Robert Woods: After playing a mixture of his role and Kupp’s role the last two weeks, it seems that Woods will be able to return to his normal role this week, as Kupp’s expected to return. That means Woods will almost certainly see Eli Apple in coverage, which bodes well for his chances. The Saints just traded for Apple, who hadn’t been good in his first two years, though the Saints obviously felt like he was an upgrade over Ken Crawley. In his first game with the Saints, he allowed eight catches for 79 yards on eight targets in coverage. Let’s just say that’s not great. In fact, the only games where he was actually good in coverage this year came against the Jaguars and Cowboys receivers, so take that as you will. The Saints have allowed a league-high seven wide receivers finish with at least 23 PPR points against them. As a comparison, the Cowboys secondary has allowed just four wide receivers more than 14 PPR points. Woods is a low-end WR1 and one who should blow up.

Cooper Kupp: According to Sean McVay, they’re expecting to have Kupp back this week. He’s coming off a sprained MCL and has missed two games, which is right about the time most come back. He comes back into a matchup with P.J. Williams, which should make you feel all giddy inside, as Williams has allowed a 139.1 QB Rating in his coverage this year. The only reason he’s playing is because the Saints starting nickel cornerback Patrick Robinson was sent to IR earlier in the season. Just last week, Williams allowed two touchdowns in his coverage and it wasn’t the first time this year that’s happened. He actually allowed three touchdowns in his coverage against the Falcons back in Week 3. There’s obviously some risk coming off a multi-week injury, but Kupp should be played as a low-end WR2 with upside.

Michael Thomas: After the Saints decided not to throw the ball last week, we’re fortunate to see Thomas walk away with 5/81/0. With Brees failing to post big numbers, Thomas has now averaged just 13.3 PPR points per game after averaging a robust 25.1 points over the first three weeks. The Rams decided to use Marcus Peters in shadow coverage against Davante Adams last week, and the Packers didn’t take advantage as much as they should’ve. Adams caught 5-of-7 targets for 133 yards as he continually beat Peters down the field. Thomas moves all over the formation and is going to be a problem for this defense. If they dare trust Peters on him, he’ll finish as the top receiver this week. Thomas is an elite WR1 this week and one you should have plenty of exposure to in DFS.

Tre’Quan Smith: We knew that it wasn’t a great matchup against the Vikings last week, though it didn’t help that the Saints threw the ball just 23 times. It’ll be a different scenario this week, as the 60-point over/under suggests. With Marcus Peters likely traveling with Thomas, that leaves Troy Hill on Smith. He was the one in coverage when Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored last week. He’s now allowed 15/285/2 in his coverage since being pushed into play due to Aqib Talib‘s injury and Sam Shields‘ incompetence. Over his four-year career, Hill has allowed a 64 percent catch-rate and a touchdown every 13.5 targets in his coverage. Smith has the highest average depth of target of Saints starting wide receivers, so he should be the one to take advantage of the fact that the Rams have allowed a league-high 10 passing plays that have gone for more than 40 yards. Smith should be on the WR3 radar this week and comes with some upside for more.

Cameron Meredith/Austin Carr: These two are splitting snaps right now, with Carr actually seeing the field more often than Meredith. Over the last two weeks, Carr has played 34 snaps while Meredith has played 27 of them. Knowing the two have combined for just 12 targets all season, it’s fair to say that you can avoid them in fantasy right now.

TEs
Tyler Higbee: It’s officially official now. After being without Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks for points in time over the last month, if we were going to see a spike in production from the Rams tight ends, it would have been then. We’re now eight weeks into the season and they’ve combined for just 27 targets. I’m pretty sure that Zach Ertz has seen that in one week. Yes, I’m being sarcastic. No, you don’t want to play them against the Saints who are a top-three defense against tight ends.

Ben Watson: After failing to record a single catch against the Vikings, it’s going to be tough to trust Watson the very next week, but are there reasons to try? While the Rams have allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to tight ends, those numbers are a bit skewed by Jared Cook‘s Week 1 performance where he caught nine passes for 180 yards. Since that time, the Rams have allowed just 29 receptions for 240 yards and one touchdown. It was almost two touchdowns last week, as Jimmy Graham caught his lone pass that was ruled a touchdown, but was ultimately overturned. Brees isn’t targeting a third wide receiver (Carr and Meredith have combined for just 12 all season) and the Rams have been phenomenal against running backs in the passing game, so it’s possible that Watson pops back onto the fantasy radar. Prior to his zero-target game in Week 8, he’d averaged 4.7 targets per game. In a game with this high of a total, Watson is in the high-end TE2 conversation.