Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Total: 51.5
Line: KC by 8.0

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: The most incredible stat I’ve found this week was that Mahomes has already equaled Alex Smith‘s touchdown total (26) from 2017. The Chiefs offense has so many weapons, there hasn’t been a team to figure out how to stop them, as they’ve now scored at least 27 points in every game. They’re averaging a league-high 36.2 points per game, which is 2.8 points higher than the Saints, who are the No. 2 scoring team. The Browns defense has played much better at home this year, allowing just 21.2 points per game there, compared to the 31.2 points per game on the road. Their last two home games were against Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers, who combined for 505 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. It also hurts to know that Mahomes may be without Tyreek Hill, who completely changes this offense. He’s dealing with a groin injury which could limit him even if he tries to play through it. It could be a week where we see Hunt used a lot more, but that doesn’t mean Mahomes isn’t a must-start… he still is in season-long leagues, though I’d limit exposure in DFS this week.

Baker Mayfield: It’s hard to say what Hue Jackson’s and Todd Haley’s firings will do to the offense, as running backs coach Freddie Kitchens will take over as the offensive coordinator. He’s never been a coordinator at any level of football, so this is going to be interesting. He has been a quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends coach at separate times, so he may know more than most believe. It’s unlikely he changes too much considering he’s got just six days to install a new offense, so you should expect something similar to Haley’s offense this week, though they may decide to run the ball a bit more. The Chiefs secondary has played much better than we expected them to this year, as their 3.86 percent touchdown-rate ranks seventh-lowest in the league. So, then why/how do they allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks? Well, they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards (2,591) this year, behind only the Bengals. Their pass-rush has now generated 22 sacks over the last six games, which is a problem for Mayfield, who’s been sacked 17 times over the last four games. One important note is that their starting middle linebacker Anthony Hitchens is likely to miss time with bruised ribs, so it’s a slight upgrade. The Browns should really try to run the ball and keep the Chiefs off the field, though it’s likely we see Mayfield throw quite a bit considering opponents are averaging 42.1 pass attempts against the Chiefs, which is the second-most in the NFL. In a week that’s filled with teams on bye, Mayfield is on the streaming radar as a mid to high-end QB2.

RBs
Kareem Hunt: Ever since his miserable Week 1 performance, Hunt has been a better fantasy running back than all but one running back this year, and that’s Todd Gurley. Well, he’s also behind Saquon Barkley in PPR formats, but he’s clearly been a stud, regardless. The Browns have 5-of-8 teams rush for at least 107 yards, including two of their last three opponents to rush for at least 163 yards and two touchdowns. James Conner‘s 38.2 PPR points against them last week was the third time they’ve allowed 35-plus points to a running back this year. It’s possible that the Chiefs are without Tyreek Hill this week, which would mean they’d lean on Hunt even more than usual. He’s a must-play RB1 who can be used in every format with little risk.

Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: This might be the most interesting backfield to watch in Week 9, as Hue Jackson’s been stubborn in his usage of Johnson, though many outsiders have clamored for more. The Chiefs are most definitely a team that they should be able to run against, as they’ve not only allowed 5.31 yards per carry (2nd-highest in the NFL), but they’ve also allowed the most fantasy points through the air to running backs. Because of that, they’ve now allowed a league-leading 13 running backs to post RB2-type numbers against them this year, while no other team has allowed more than 10 such instances. Guys, they’ve played just eight games, making it an average of 1.6 running backs per game to post top-24 PPR numbers. They also just lost starting linebacker Anthony Hitchens for a couple weeks due to bruised ribs. He’s totaled 43 solo tackles, while the next closest linebacker on their team has totaled 24 of them. Chubb is the early-down back who’ll get all goal-line work and should be considered a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who is a must-play. Johnson is a bit more interesting, though we can only go up from here. Knowing that the Chiefs allow so many points through the air, Johnson should be on the RB3/4 radar this week in standard formats, while on the RB3 radar in PPR formats. It’s possible that new offensive coordinator Freddie Hitchens makes it more of a timeshare, though there’s enough room for both to produce in this game.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: At this moment in time, it seems that Hill is 50/50 to play this game, at best. He suffered a groin injury in Week 8 which could really hamper a receiver like him who relies on speed and quick-twitch movements. We saw Allen Robinson try to play through a similar injury, though he wound-up missing the end of that game and the next week. With the Chiefs sitting at 7-1, they could choose to rest their game-changer. He’s like a Ferrari that won’t run right if the car isn’t at 100 percent. The Browns haven’t been the easiest matchup on wide receivers, either, as they’ve allowed just eight top-24 performances to wide receivers all year (though five of them were top-10 performances). He’d likely see a lot of Denzel Ward, who shadowed Antonio Brown for most of the game last week. He did allow one of the touchdowns, which was the fourth one he’s allowed in coverage this year, though he’s also intercepted three balls and only allowed 10.5 yards per reception. If Hill does suit-up, it’d be difficult to think he’s any more than a risky WR2. Update: Hill did practice throughout the week, and although somewhat limited, he appears to be on track to play against the Browns. He may be at less than 100 percent, though, so he’s no sure thing to deliver.

Sammy Watkins: There’s a lot up in the air with Hill right now, which makes Watkins a difficult player to project, as it’d likely be best for him if Hill did play. If Hill sits, then it’s a guarantee that Watkins would be shadowed by Denzel Ward, who is an early candidate for rookie of the year (though that’s likely going to be Saquon Barkley). Ward is allowing just a 54 percent catch-rate in his coverage and has allowed just 88 yards after the catch on the season, so it’s likely a touchdown-or-bust WR3-type of game for Watkins. If Hill practices and gets on the field for the game, Watkins would be a bit more appealing matched-up against Damarious Randall and/or T.J. Carrie. Watkins is likely going to wind up as a high-end WR3 in the rankings to start, but I’ll ensure to come back and update this on Saturday morning.

Jarvis Landry: There have been 99 wide receivers who’ve seen at least 20 targets this year. Of those 99 receivers, Landry’s piddly 5.6 yards per target ranks 91st. He hasn’t seen the greatest of targets, but he also hasn’t been the most reliable target, either. The offense lacks creativity and despite him seeing at least 10 targets in all but one game this year, he’s failed to reach 40 yards in three of his last five games with Mayfield under center. The Chiefs cornerbacks have been playing much better than anyone anticipated, and Landry is going to see Kendall Fuller nearly all game. Fuller was widely considered one of the best slot cornerbacks in the game last year, though it was a big difference from his rookie season in 2016 where he was benched for poor play. After allowing just a 56.7 QB Rating in his coverage last year, he’s back to his 2016-self this year, allowing a 110.0 QB Rating in his coverage, which is the worst on the team. He’s allowed a rather high 73.3 percent catch-rate, while allowing 13.5 receptions on those targets. The new offensive coordinator may change some things, but they don’t have many other players to target. Wide receivers average 24.9 targets per game against the Chiefs and Landry has seen 94 of the Browns 186 wide receiver targets this season (50.5 percent), which would put him around an estimated 13 targets in this game. He needs to continue to be trotted out there as a WR2 who should offer a high floor.

Rashard Higgins/Antonio Callaway/Damion Ratley: It’s a cloudy picture right now, as Callaway is on the field for almost every snap by default. Since Week 3, he’s top-20 in the NFL in targets. Ugly, I know. Their depth chart isn’t pretty, but Higgins might return from his MCL injury this week and he’s arguably been the Browns best wide receiver to this point. It’s difficult to trust a wide receiver coming off a multi-week knee injury, so even if he does play, you’ll want to approach with caution. Ratley has seen just seven targets the last two weeks, so he’s not someone you want to play either. All of these receivers are lumped together in this area because you don’t want to play any of them, even if Mayfield may drop back 40-plus times. Here’s Mayfield’s QB Rating when targeting each of them: Higgins 116.2, Landry 72.1, Ratley 64.9, and Callaway 46.0. Update: Higgins is on track to play, while it appears Callaway may miss the game. Higgins should be looked at as a spot-start WR4 in that case, though it’s risky coming off a multi-week knee injury. 

TEs
Travis Kelce: What in the world is happening when we can’t simply plug-and-play tight ends against the Browns? They allowed 11-of-16 tight ends to finish as top-12 options last year, but it’s been a different story in 2018. They’ve allowed just the 21st-most points per game to the position despite seeing the position seeing the third-most targets (68) against them. They’ve allowed just 6.51 yards per target and a touchdown once every 34.0 targets in coverage. This all makes little sense considering they’re playing in the same defensive scheme as last year, right? Well, the competition hasn’t been what you’d call great. They’ve played (in order): Jesse James, Ben Watson, Eric Tomlinson, Jared Cook, Mark Andrews, Antonio Gates, O.J. Howard, and Vance McDonald. The two names that stand out are Cook and Howard, who both posted top-10 games against them (Cook 8/110/2, Howard 5/67/0). Those are two highly-athletic tight ends like Kelce, so no, you shouldn’t be afraid to start the stud TE1.

David Njoku: After being targeted at least six times in all but one game, Njoku didn’t see a single target in Week 8? In a matchup against one of the worst teams at defending tight ends? Let’s just write it off as a bad game. He did see an end zone target, though it didn’t count on the stat sheet because there was pass interference on the play. He was added to the injury report with a knee issue last week, so we should try to pay attention to that moving forward, but he did run his typical routes. The Chiefs haven’t been good without safety Eric Berry, who remains out with a lower body injury. They’ve allowed 9.31 yards per target to tight ends, which is why you’ve seen five different tight ends rack up at least 57 yards against them. If there’s someone on the Browns who I’d bet on seeing six-plus targets outside Landry, it’s Njoku. Get him back into lineups as a middling TE1 who should bounce back.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Total: 45.0
Line: MIA by 3.0

QBs
Sam Darnold: If you sat down and watched the Jets last week, you have little hope for their offense, as the lack of playmakers is apparent. Darnold was without Quincy Enunwa, Bilal Powell, and Robby Anderson, his top-three options in the passing-game. After allowing just 52 points in the first three weeks (17.3 points per game), the Dolphins defense has allowed 155 points in their last five games (31.0 points per game). They aren’t generating any pass-rush and have totaled just five sacks in those five games, including zero on Deshaun Watson last Thursday night. It’s unclear who Darnold will have to throw to this week, though it’ll help that Elijah McGuire is returning to fill the Powell role, as Trenton Cannon wasn’t going to be that guy. The reason I’m not into Darnold despite the lack of pass-rush from the Dolphins is due to what they do well. Minkah Fitzpatrick has shut down the opposing slot receiver seemingly every week, and that’s an area of the field Darnold loves to target. Quarterbacks have just a 48.1 QB Rating when targeting him in coverage, and then safety Reshad Jones does a good job tackling in the open field, so it’s tough to rely on yards after the catch for his pass-catchers. The Dolphins have allowed at least 7.8 yards per attempt to each of the last seven quarterbacks they’ve played, which is tempting, but not enough to consider Darnold in 1QB leagues.

Brock Osweiler: We’ve now seen Osweiler decline for the second straight week, bottoming out with just a 56.8 percent completion rate, 6.5 yards per attempt, and no touchdowns against a Texans defense that can be beat in the secondary. The Jets have now allowed at least two passing scores in each of their last five games, which included Blake Bortles and Case Keenum. They’ve been without Trumaine Johnson for that period and he’s likely to return this week, which should help. Osweiler has only been sacked six times in his three starts and the Jets have only generated three sacks over the last three games, so Osweiler should have some time to operate. Knowing that six of the last seven quarterbacks have totaled at least 17 fantasy points against the Jets is tempting, but after the display last Thursday night, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a middling QB2, though it does help that they’ll have 10 days to prepare for the game.

RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire: Watching Crowell run into the Bears defensive line over and over last week was odd, as the Jets seemed to run him the way Mike McCoy had run David Johnson before getting fired. It was all too predictable and it’s odd because the area Crowell’s been most successful this year is when he gets to the edge. The lack of creativity against one of the best run defenses in the league really set him up for failure. The Dolphins have been gashed by running backs over and over this year, as they’ve now allowed nine RB1 performances through just eight games. They’ve allowed at least one running back to total 17 PPR points against them in every game. These two teams played back in Week 2 where Crowell took a backseat to Powell, who totaled 80 yards and a touchdown. That was the only game this year where the Dolphins have allowed less than 93 rushing yards to opposing running backs, so it looks like some king of outlier. The 4.66 yards per carry allowed is much better than the Bears 3.49 yards per carry allowed, so Crowell should be able to find some more room in this matchup. He should be considered an RB2 this week who should be able to post a stable floor, as the Dolphins aren’t blowing anyone out. McGuire is returning from his broken foot this week, though he’s been practicing for two weeks now, so he should be tossed into the fire. Don’t forget that Bilal Powell‘s role was netting 13.0 touches per week. While they could ease him back into play, he’s on the RB4/5 radar for those looking for an upside bye week option.

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: Just how bad has the running back position been in fantasy this year? Drake currently sits as the RB15 at the halfway point. Let’s not forget he totaled less than 10 PPR points in four of the first six games, leading some to drop him. Over the last four weeks, the Dolphins have seemingly figured out his role, as he’s averaged 9.3 carries and 6.8 targets per game. We may complain that his touch total should still be higher, getting 16.1 opportunities per game isn’t bad. He’s averaging 6.30 yards per carry in that time. The Jets run defense was worn down against the Bears last week, as Jordan Howard was shut down for much of the game, but put together a strong final drive that resulted in a touchdown. Over the last four weeks, the Jets have allowed a rather-high 5.08 yards per attempt with three rushing touchdowns. They’ve also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs in that time, but it should be mentioned that 70 yards came on a screen to Tarik Cohen last week. It’s possible that Drake’s meeting the Jets at the perfect time, though he did tally 70 total yards and a touchdown in their first meeting as well. He should be played as a solid RB2. As for Gore, he’s seeing a consistent 10-15 carries per game but is essentially non-existent in the passing-game, as he’s caught just six passes all year. That means it’s score or letdown the majority of time unless he averages over 5.0 yards per carry, and oddly enough, he’s yet to score a single rushing touchdown all year. He does offer a high floor, so he should remain on the low-end RB3 radar during bye weeks.

WRs
Robby Anderson: He was out last week with an ankle injury and it’s no guarantee he plays this week, either. Even if he does, he’d be matching up with Xavien Howard, the cornerback who held him to three catches for 27 yards on five targets in their first meeting. It’s best to take the wait-and-see approach with Anderson, who has more than 44 yards just once this season. Update: He’s questionable for the game after getting in a limited practice. 

Jermaine Kearse: He ran over 80 percent of his routes in the slot against the Bears, which is a good thing, but he totaled just 3/30/0 on 10 targets against Bryce Callahan. While he’s a good slot cornerback, Kearse will now go against Minkah Fitzpatrick, who’s arguably been the best slot cornerback in football in his rookie season. It’s not as if Kearse has been efficient, either, as he’s averaging just 5.0 yards per target, so expecting him to produce in a tough matchup doesn’t make all that much sense. He’s nothing more than a WR5 in this matchup.

DeVante Parker: What do you know… Parker is active and sees nine targets, then posts the second-best yardage total (134) by any Dolphins wide receiver this year. With all the injuries to the Dolphins receivers, they had no choice but to target Parker, but this is what happens when he’s targeted throughout his career.

Going into a matchup with the Jets looks solid when we know that Trumaine Johnson has been out for multiple weeks, though he’s likely coming back this week. On the year, the Jets have allowed just a 60.8 percent completion rate to wide receivers, which ranks as the 10th-lowest mark in the year, and they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to them. “Mike, how have they allowed nine wide receivers to top 15 PPR points this year?” Well, they’ve faced an NFL-high 212 wide receiver targets with the closest team at 201 targets. In other words, the volume needs to be there for Parker to succeed in this game. He should be considered a middling WR3 in this matchup.

Danny Amendola: The matchup we’ve continually targeted against the Jets is the slot, as they’ve continually been abused in that area of the field. Here’s recent slot-heavy receivers against them: Anthony Miller 3/37/1, Adam Thielen 9/110/1, Chester Rogers 4/55/1, Emmanuel Sanders 9/72/0, Dede Westbrook 9/130/0, Jarvis Landry 8/103/0, Golden Tate 7/79/1. Unfortunately, Amendola was the only one who failed to produce against them, totaling 4/32/0 on just four targets, but that was early in the season where the Dolphins didn’t use him as heavily as they do now, as he’s been targeted 24 times in the last three games. The Jets welcomed Buster Skrine back from injury last week, though it didn’t help much. Amendola is someone who should deliver a WR4 floor in PPR formats and makes for a solid bye week replacement.

Kenny Stills: Dealing with a groin injury, he was sidelined against the Texans last Thursday night. For someone who’s considered a field-stretcher for the Dolphins offense, he shouldn’t be on the field at less than 100 percent. The Jets did get free safety Marcus Maye back last week and they’ve allowed just three 40-plus passing yard plays this year, which is the sixth-fewest in the NFL. When Stills was healthy, the Jets limited him to just two catches for 17 yards. He’s someone I’d try to avoid even if he does play considering the type of injury he’s dealing with. Update: He’s questionable for the game after getting in a limited practice on Friday. 

TEs
Chris Herndon: He’s now scored in three straight games, though it’s not something that’ll continue considering he’s seen just two targets in two of those games. The lack of players available for Darnold has led to him finding Herndon a bit more often, but it’s touchdown-or-bust when you’re seeing the volume he is. The Dolphins have allowed one touchdown every 10 targets to tight ends (five touchdowns on 50 targets), and all five touchdowns they’ve allowed have come in the last three weeks. Jordan Thomas and Michael Roberts each scored twice, while Trey Burton scored once, so they’re clearly overlooking the tight end position as of late, though those teams had many other issues at wide receiver to deal with. It should also be noted that none of Thomas, Roberts, or Burton finished with 50 yards. If you do the math, Herndon doesn’t look like a bad start, but I’d prefer a higher target floor for my streamers.

Mike Gesicki: As it turns out, Gesicki is still the primary receiving tight end for the Dolphins, though they’re using him all wrong. He’s a freak athlete who can sky over defenders, yet they’re continually targeting him in the short area of the field and relying on him to do something after the catch. Until they start stretching the field with him, he’s not a fantasy option. He’s yet to total more than 44 yards or score a touchdown, and will now meet up with Jamal Adams, one of the best strong safeties in the game, who is coming off a game where he shut down Trey Burton. Gesicki belongs on waiver wires right now.

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills

Total: 37.5
Line: CHI by 9.0

QBs
Mitch Trubisky: My co-host on the FantasyPros Football Podcast, Bobby Sylvester, mentioned something to me the other day that I felt the need to fact-check, simply because I didn’t believe it. During Patrick Mahomes‘ four-game stretch to start the season where everyone was calling him the fantasy MVP, he scored 115.3 fantasy points. Over Trubisky’s last four games, he’s totaled 124.1 fantasy points. Um, what. He’s a difficult case to crack for me because his play hasn’t been great, but at the same time, his numbers are consistently good. He’s thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last four games and has run for at least 47 yards in each of those games. He should be considered to someone like Cam Newton as a fantasy option, as Trubisky trails him by just 13 rushing yards through seven games. The issue is that the Bills defense is on deck and they’ve been one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, allowing just 6.80 yards per attempt, which ranks as the third-lowest in the league. After allowing six passing scores in the first two games, they’ve settled in and allowed just seven touchdowns in their last six games, with four of them coming to Andrew Luck in Week 7 while they were on the road. The Bills also run a lot of zone defense, which doesn’t allow for big rushing totals to quarterbacks. The Bills will be coming off a short week, but they’ll remain at home during that time, so it’s not a big plus to Trubisky. He should be considered a high-end QB2, though not one who’s a sure thing this week.

Nathan Peterman: Here we go again… No. Just… no.

RBs
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: Some will see the touch difference between Cohen and Howard last week and start to panic, but you shouldn’t worry about it. The gamescript fit Howard’s role and he was largely ineffective for much of the game, while Cohen simply didn’t need to do much. The Bills run-defense has really turned a corner this year, as they’ve allowed just three running backs to top 15 PPR points against them this year, though two of them have come in the last two weeks. James White is the best comparison for how Cohen is used in the Bears offense, and he’s coming off a 10-catch, 79-yard performance against them. You should know that Cohen has played more than 50 percent of snaps just twice in his Bears career… both have come the last two weeks. He’s here to stay. The Bills have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs, while allowing a mediocre 4.35 yards per carry. This game suits what Cohen does very well, so he should be utilized much more than last week, making him a high-end RB2. Meanwhile, Howard is going to be touchdown-or-bust most weeks, as he’s slowly been phased out of the passing game, seeing just one target in each of the last four games. He should have gamescript on his side once again, so he’s still on the low-end RB2 radar though you may want to consider selling him after this game.

LeSean McCoy: So, the trade deadline came and went, but McCoy remains on the team. It makes very little sense, as he didn’t even look like the best running back on the field for them last week. He kept hesitating and getting swallowed up while waiting for a hole to open, but they rarely did. Against the Bears, it’s even less likely that they open up, as they’ve allowed just 3.49 yards per carry on the season. There’s been one running back to rush for more than 57 yards against the Bears and that was Frank Gore, who is essentially the exact opposite of McCoy. It was nice to see him targeted a season-high eight times, but the quarterback who was checking down to him was Derek Anderson, and now he’s out this week. It was McCoy’s first game this year with more than 29 receiving yards, so we don’t want to simply assume that’ll happen every week. The Bears have allowed exactly four running backs more than 5.2 PPR points all season. Go ahead and read that sentence again. The only top-12 performance they’ve allowed this year was to James White, who seemingly does that against everyone, and he did it because he scored twice, something McCoy hasn’t done even once this year. He’s just a mediocre RB3 but will probably be usable considering how many running backs are on bye this week.

WRs
Allen Robinson: The Bears exercised caution last week with Robinson, as we expected them to. He did practice in a limited capacity late in the week, so the assumption is that he’ll be back for this game. The issue, though, is that he’d come back to a matchup with Tre’Davious White, who’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the game this year, allowing just a 57.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage and that’s while shadowing the opposing No. 1 receiver most weeks. Robinson himself hasn’t been a sure thing in fantasy this year, as he’s still yet to top 83 yards, though he does have at least 50 yards and/or a touchdown in all games except the one against the Patriots where he tried playing through his groin injury and had to leave early. Even if he does return, it’s not a week to get excited about him, but he’s still on the low-end WR3 radar with how often he slides into the slot, which will help him evade White’s coverage. Update: He’s listed as questionable once again, but it seems unlikely he suits up. Even if he does, he’s trending towards a risky WR4 at this point. 

Taylor Gabriel: The wind in Chicago surely affected the gameplan with Gabriel last week, as he didn’t land the big play that’s been supporting his WR3 status. Still, he’s averaging 6.3 targets per game on the season, so taking the shot on him makes sense in good matchups. The Bills have allowed just 21 plays of 20-plus yards through the air, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league, so this isn’t a great matchup for the long-ball. Looking at the wide receivers who have succeeded against the Bills, a lot of them have been possession receviers, though even they haven’t done great, as the Bills have allowed just two receivers more than 81 yards, and both were slot guys (Adam Thielen, Julian Edelman). Gabriel will have better weeks ahead, but he’s just a boom-or-bust WR4 this week. It would help if Robinson plays, though.

Anthony Miller: He’s now seen seven targets in each of the last two games, so the volume is starting to increase, though Trubisky hasn’t been able to put the ball on him consistently, as he’s caught just five of those targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored in three of the last five games, so they clearly look for him to perform in the red zone. Rookie fourth-round pick Taron Johnson has covered the slot for the Bills and he’s done a solid, respectable job, though he’s far from a shutdown cornerback. With the tough matchup for Robinson and lack of big plays allowed by the Bills, you have to wonder if the Bears go back to Miller, though due to the lack of efficiency, he’s nothing more than a WR5 who’ll need to score to hit value.

Kelvin Benjamin: If there’s one thing we know about Peterman, it’s that he’s not afraid to sling the ball around. Benjamin is big enough where he can catch some balls that defensive backs have no chance of getting to, which gives him a fighter’s chance any given week, and the Bears defense has allowed 9.18 yards per target to wide receivers, but we’re talking about a guy who’s topped 45 yards just once all season. Most don’t believe so, but Peterman is likely the best chance he has at success. If you’re looking for a Bills wide receiver to play, it’d be Benjamin for me, who is on the WR5 radar.

TEs
Trey Burton: Many were left wondering what happened to Burton last week, especially with Allen Robinson held out for the week. Well, if you were here with us, I warned you that it was a tough matchup against Jamal Adams. It’s a small blip on the radar for Burton, who is a big part of the offense, but he’s got another tough matchup against the Bills this week. They’ve allowed just 1.46 PPR points per target (6th-lowest), 6.02 yards per target (4th-lowest), and a 54.4 percent completion rate (best in NFL) to tight ends. They’ve also played some solid competition, as Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Eric Ebron are among them. The Bears do use some unique play-calling to get Burton the ball in the red zone, as his seven red zone targets ranks eighth among tight ends. He’s once again at the low end of the TE1 range.

Charles Clay: There’s been two games Clay has played with Peterman, and in those games, he’s totaled six targets that netted two catches for 27 yards. Despite the Bills throwing for over 300 yards last week, Clay finished with a measly 36 yards. He’s still yet to total more than 40 yards this season and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3… of last year. He’s not on the streaming radar against a Bears defense that’s allowed just 6.58 yards per target to tight ends. Yes, they’ve allowed five touchdowns to them, but we’ve already established that Clay doesn’t score, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Total: 54.0
Line: CAR by 7.0

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Here we go again… Dirk Koetter wasted no time announcing Fitzpatrick as the starter on Monday, though it’s clear that no one has a firm grip on this job. If you were to combine the totals of Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston, they’d be the No. 2 fantasy quarterback behind only Patrick Mahomes. Fitzpatrick’s 10.8 yards per target is clearly unsustainable, as he’s failed to top 6.9 yards per attempt in each of the previous three seasons. Still, if you were to combine the Bears and Bengals games where he played essentially a half of each of them, he’s averaging 387.5 yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game in 2018, which cannot be ignored. The Panthers have allowed exactly two passing touchdowns in every game since Week 2, though they’ve allowed just one top-12 performance in that time, which was to Matt Ryan who rushed for two touchdowns as well. The lack of run-game for the Bucs is forcing them to throw the ball 41.7 times per game, which ranks as the fifth-most, while the Panthers opponents are averaging 36.7 attempts per game, which ranks as the 12th-most. It’s fair to say that we should expect 300-plus yards through the air with at least two passing touchdowns. That puts him firmly on the streaming radar and someone I’d consider a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.

Cam Newton: Let’s see if the Bucs defense is as bad as the numbers say, as they’ve defended Newton really well over the last two years. His last three games against them have netted just 160/0/1, 154/1/1, and 237/1/3. The silver lining is that the Bucs defense is now missing a starting cornerback, safety, and linebacker. They’ve also been without Gerald McCoy the last two weeks, which has opened the flood gate to opposing run games. It’s pretty insane when I look at my spreadsheet on just how bad the Bucs have been against the pass, and it’s not even volume related. They’ve allowed 8.76 yards per attempt (highest in the NFL), a 73.7 percent completion rate (highest in the NFL), and a 7.52 percent touchdown rate (highest in the NFL). The only quarterback they’ve held outside the top-12 this year was Nick Foles, who still finished with 334 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs have faced two mobile quarterbacks this year, and we saw Mitch Trubisky post 53 rushing yards, while Baker Mayfield posted 43 of his own. Newton should be considered a rock-solid QB1 who presents a high-floor, especially if McCoy is forced to miss another game.

RBs
Peyton Barber: Well, we don’t have to worry about which Bucs running back will be playing over the next month or so, as Ronald Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and will be held out for a few weeks. The issue is that the Panthers opponents average just 17.4 carries per game and have scored just three rushing touchdowns all year. The 4.61 yards per carry they allow is rather high, but the volume concerns need to be added into that. On top of that, Barber has caught just six passes all year (four of them came from Winston in one game), so it’s not as if you can rely on anything through the air. He should get 12-plus touches with goal-line carries, so he’s on the RB3 radar, but he’s not someone I’d target in DFS.

Christian McCaffrey: I’ve been hard on McCaffrey this year and his performance last week was a bit fluky (if you watched the game, you know what I’m talking about). However, this is a week to get a ton of PPR points out of his system. The Bucs defense is struggling after losing linebacker Kwon Alexander, as they’ve allowed 206 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks to the Browns and Bengals. It also doesn’t help that they’ve been without defensive tackle Gerald McCoy the last three weeks and defensive end Vinny Curry the last two weeks. If they come back, it’d be a downgrade to the run-game, but that’s not where McCaffrey shines anyway, as he’s topped 58 rushing yards once this year. He’s still seen at least six targets in 6-of-7 games, and the Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points per target (1.86) to running backs this season, which is large in-part to do with the 7.47 yards per target they allow to them, which is the fifth-most in the league. We’ve seen Alvin Kamara post 9/112/1, Tarik Cohen 7/121/1, and Corey Clement 5/55/0 through the air against them, so fire up McCaffrey as a middling RB1 in standard and a stud RB1 in PPR formats.

WRs
Mike Evans: Here’s Mike Evans‘ fantasy performances in games where Fitzpatrick started: 7/147/1, 10/83/1, 6/137/1. He then caught a 72-yard touchdown from him in relief last week, so it’s safe to say that Evans is going to be just fine with Fitzpatrick under center. He’ll see James Bradberry in coverage, who has had trouble containing Evans during his career. In four games against the Panthers (since Bradberry joined the team), Evans has averaged 10.3 targets, 5.5 receptions, 80.3 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. He’s been targeted 52 times in coverage this year (6th-most among cornerbacks), allowing a 63.5 percent catch-rate for 12.4 yards per reception and three touchdowns, which is good for a 106.9 QB Rating. Of the six cornerbacks who’ve been targeted at least 52 times, he’s the only one allowing higher than an 85.0 QB Rating in coverage. Evans should be played as he usually is, which is a low-end WR1 with upside.

Chris Godwin: It seems to finally be happening, where Godwin has now played 129 snaps over the last two games, while Adam Humphries checks in at 119 snaps, and DeSean Jackson bringing up the caboose with just 89 snaps. He’s now seen 22 targets in their three games since the bye week, so it’s fair to say that he’s an every-week fantasy option who shouldn’t be as touchdown-dependent. The Panthers are likely to have James Bradberry on Evans, Donte Jackson on Jackson, which would leave Godwin with a mixture of Captain Munnerlyn and the safeties, which isn’t a bad thing for his outlook, though the Panthers haven’t been a defense to allow multiple options deliver against them. In fact, they’ve allowed just three top-24 performances against them this year, so you almost have to pick which wide receiver you want to play out of this group. It’s got to be Evans considering how he’s fared against Bradberry in his career, but Godwin would be a logical second choice. He’s on the low-end WR3 radar this week, but he’s far from a sure thing.

DeSean Jackson: As mentioned in the Godwin notes, Jackson has played just 89 snaps the last two weeks. He’s seen 12 targets, so he’s not obsolete or anything, but he’ll have to rely on the big play like he did last week when he hauled in a 60-yard touchdown. The rest of the day he caught just two balls for eight yards. He’s going to see Donte Jackson in coverage most of the time this week, a cornerback who just shut down John Brown for just 3/28/0 on seven targets. He’s got 4.3-second speed to hang with Jackson, and because of that, the Panthers have allowed just three plays of 40-plus yards this season, which ranks as the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Jackson is trending more towards a high-end WR4 who is boom-or-bust with limited snaps the last few weeks.

Devin Funchess: He’s coming off his toughest matchup of the year against the Ravens, so don’t panic about the three targets he received that game. He’d seen at least seven targets in each of the last five games, so his volume should return to normal in this matchup against the Bucs, who have been the third-most generous defense to opposing wide receivers. They’re allowing a league-high 75.2 percent completion rate to receivers and have allowed a touchdown every 11.8 targets to them, which ranks as the third-worst in the league. He’s going to see a mixture of Carlton Davis and Brent Grimes in coverage, two cornerbacks who have combined to allow a 108.0 QB Rating in their coverage. Davis is a rookie who’s been thrown into the fire, while Grimes is a 5-foot-10, 185-pound cornerback who gives over six inches to Funchess. He’s a must-play WR2 this week and one who could post his best line of the season.

D.J. Moore: We talked about Moore getting plays designed around him last week, even though his snap counts remained under 50 percent. With Torrey Smith out of the lineup, he played a season-high 71 percent of snaps against the Ravens. It was a tough matchup, though he was still able to post 90 yards on six targets, and another 39 yards on the ground. He’s clearly becoming an option in this offense and the matchup doesn’t get much better against the Bucs who have allowed 10 top-24 performances to wide receivers this year. The downside to Smith out, it means that Moore plays more on the perimeter, as he ran just 24 percent of his routes in the slot last week, after averaging 51 percent over the first six games. He’s on the high-end WR4 radar, though Funchess may overshadow him this week.

TEs
O.J. Howard: Despite seeing more than four targets just twice all season, Howard has totaled at least 54 yards in every full game he’s played, including games of 62, 67, and 68 over the last three weeks. The Bengals were without multiple defenders, so it wasn’t too shocking to see him post 4/68/1 against them, though you wonder why he didn’t see more than four targets. The Panthers are a defense who’s really struggled against tight ends this year, as they’ve now allowed six tight ends to deliver double-digit PPR performances. They’re allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season and it’s not just due to touchdowns, either. Across the board, they’ve been bad against the position, allowing 8.38 yards per target, a 73.8 percent completion rate, and a touchdown every 13.0 targets. There have been just two games this year where they’ve not allowed a touchdown to a tight end, and those matchups were against Geoff Swaim (in his first NFL game) and Rhett Ellison (was filling in for an injured Evan Engram). Howard should be considered a must-play TE1 in this game and it’s possible that even Cameron Brate finds his way into the top-15 if you’re looking for an emergency streamer.

Greg Olsen: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Olsen is a streaming tight end that you can play in good matchups, like the one last week and like the one this week. Despite the Bucs holding C.J. Uzomah pointless last week, you shouldn’t run from this defense. Despite holding Uzomah catchless, the Bucs have still allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They’ve still allowed a massive 10.1 yards per target (ranks second to only the Raiders) and a 73.7 percent completion rate to tight ends, so even if Olsen maxes out at six targets, he should be able to get into TE1 territory. He’s a solid play this week.