The more time goes on this year, the more you should be realizing something that’s quite apparent. The days of stud fantasy players is fading. No, I’m not just talking about workhorse running backs because that’s been happening for years. I’m talking about every position.
With teams becoming more pass-heavy, it’s brought more three wide receiver sets (sometimes even four-wide), more tight ends lining up as wide receivers, more running backs lining up as wide receivers, quarterbacks who are as mobile as ever, and you’ll even see more handoffs to wide receivers. All of this creates maddening volatility to the game of fantasy football, but that brings me to my next point.
Do not trade the studs who remain.
Every week, I’m asked about some sort of trade where a follower is being offered multiple players for Todd Gurley or Adam Thielen. My answer when it comes to trading players is almost always going to be “no.” Trading away a player who produces every single week is not the solution to fixing any problem. Back in the day, I’d tell other owners that everyone was available for the right price, but nowadays, I’d say everyone is available, but you’ll have to massively overpay.
Once you get outside the top-10 wide receivers, top-10 running backs, and top-three tight ends, everyone should be considered benchable at times. None of them have produced on a consistent basis, and a large part of that is because of the way the game’s played today.
Matchup Links:
ATL at WAS | DET at MIN | PIT at BAL | KC at CLE | NYJ at MIA | CHI at BUF | TB at CAR | LAC at SEA | HOU at DEN | LAR at NO | GB at NE | TEN at DAL | OAK at SF
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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.
If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins
Total: 47.5
Line: WAS by 1.5
QBs
Matt Ryan: When will Ryan get the love he deserves by the fantasy community? Most mention Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, and others as must-starts every week, but Ryan has been lights out since being tasked with leading this offense without Devonta Freeman. In the two games with Freeman: 268.0 YPG, 0.5 TD, 0.5 INT, 15.8 fantasy points per game. In the five games without him: 359.6 YPG, 2.8 TD, 0.2 INT, 35.0 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the Redskins pass defense has been trending in the wrong direction. After holding Sam Bradford to the QB32 performance in Week 1 and then Andrew Luck to the QB30 performance in Week 2, here’s the results of their last five games: Aaron Rodgers QB12, Drew Brees QB2, Cam Newton QB9, Dak Prescott QB8, and Eli Manning QB20. Their run-defense has been lights out as of late, forcing quarterbacks to beat them, which is something Ryan has consistently done to opposing defenses. They don’t have a cornerback to hang with Julio Jones, which is something the Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for, so it’s hard not to see Ryan posting at least middling QB1 numbers against them. The concern is that this game is outdoors, on the road, and against a Redskins defense that’s generated 11 sacks over the last two games, while Ryan has lost another starting offensive lineman. He’s not a cash-game option because of that, but I’m still comfortable starting him in season-long leagues.
Alex Smith: As mentioned last week, Smith is back to being the quarterback we saw in San Francisco and Kansas City for so many years, as he’s yet to finish a game with more than 19.6 fantasy points this year. In fact, he’s failed to reach 17 fantasy points since Week 1. Are the Falcons his cure? They’ve been one of the most generous defenses in the NFL, allowing a 70.4 percent completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, and a 6.14 percent touchdown-rate. The issue for Smith is that his pass-catchers haven’t been what you’d call good. Richardson is playing through a few injuries, Doctson has been non-existent, Crowder has missed a few weeks, and Reed isn’t doing anything even when he gets targets. The good news is that Thompson appears to be back, which is very important against a defense that’s allowed three different running backs at least 75 yards through the air. Since losing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones in Week 1, there hasn’t been a quarterback who’s finished outside the top-10 against them. While it’s difficult to trust Smith as a top-10 option, he’s definitely on the streaming radar this week as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. Update: It’s not a smash-spot for him with both Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder out for the game, so lower him down the list a bit.
RBs
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: We’re now halfway through the season and Coleman is still averaging sub-4.0 yards per carry. It surely doesn’t help that the Falcons have now lost both of their staring offensive guards, as Andre Levitre and Brandon Fusco are both out for the year. Once Levitre went down in Week 2, they went to Wes Schweitzer, who has graded out as one of the worst in the game when it comes to run-blocking. Still, Coleman is the clear-cut RB1 on this team, while Smith is in the previous Coleman role where he’s going to see 5-12 touches per game, but if he doesn’t break a big play or score, it’s not going to be pretty. The Redskins run-defense has been phenomenal this year, holding every running back they’ve played to 61 yards or less, which includes Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley over the last four weeks. Barkley was the first running back to total more than 48 receiving yards against them, too, so it’s in all facets of the game. This is clearly not a great matchup for either running back, though with the Falcons averaging 27.1 points per game, Coleman remains in the middling to low-end RB2 conversation. Meanwhile, Smith is just an RB4 who shouldn’t be started if you can help it.
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: We’re now at the halfway point of the season and Peterson has totaled at least 96 rushing yards in 5-of-7 games, including each of his last three. There has been 49 such games this year where a running back has totaled at least 96 rushing yards and there’s nobody else who’s done it more than four times. Yes, that includes Todd Gurley. He’s a must-play every week and it’s hard to say that this isn’t another one of those games, as the Redskins are home favorites. The Falcons run defense has been rather solid, though, as they’ve allowed just 573 rushing yards through seven games, though a lot of that is due to low volume, as there’s been just one running back who’s totaled more than 16 carries. That was James Conner, who bullied his way through for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. One downgrade for Peterson is that the Falcons did get defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back into the lineup (missed that game against Conner), and he’s someone who makes a big impact, as they allow 4.09 yards per carry and a 49.4 percent run success rate with him but allowed 5.48 yards per carry and a 56.5 percent run success rate without him. Peterson needs to be played as a high-end RB2, but the matchup actually suits Thompson’s skillset better. The Falcons have allowed 121.6 PPR points through the air alone to running backs. Guys, that’s over a span of seven games, so it’s an average of 17.4 points per game through the air alone. It’s why we’ve seen six running backs post at least 20.6 PPR points against them. Thompson returned in Week 8 and played just 26-of-68 snaps but seemed to come out of the game rather healthy. If he’s healthy and practicing, he’s someone I’d trust as a high-end RB3 in standard and a rock-solid RB2 in PPR formats. He’s also someone you should consider playing in a few tournament lineups. Update: Thompson has been ruled out for this game, so feel free to play Peterson with minimal risk.
WRs
Julio Jones: The Redskins don’t have Josh Norman shadow opposing wide receivers, and even if they did, he couldn’t contain Jones. With the way Jones lines up most of the time, he’ll see either Quinton Dunbar, who has now allowed four touchdowns on 30 targets in coverage this year, or seventh-round rookie Greg Stroman in coverage. Stroman has had to play for Dunbar the last few weeks, who has been dealing with a shin injury. He’s likely expected back this week, but neither Stroman or Dunbar is a worrisome matchup for Jones. They’re coming off a game in which they allowed Odell Beckham to go for 8/136/0, so feel good about slotting Jones in as a WR1 this week.
Calvin Ridley: It’ll be an interesting matchup with Ridley and Josh Norman this week, as Norman used to be a shutdown man cornerback, but now, he’s primarily a zone cornerback who hasn’t shut down much. He’s allowed a 72.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage, over 10.5 yards per target, and one touchdown every 11 targets in coverage. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still likely the best cornerback on their roster, but it also doesn’t mean that you need to avoid Ridley like the plague. Coming into their Week 8 matchup, the Redskins had allowed eight performances of 13.6 or more PPR points (the amount of points it took to finish as a top-24 receiver last year), which ranked as the seventh-most in the league. Ridley isn’t a sure thing this week, but he’s still on the WR3 radar.
Mohamed Sanu: If there’s someone who’s been performing better than expected in the Redskins secondary, it’s slot cornerback Fabian Moreau, as he’s allowed just 20-of-31 passing for 183 yards and no touchdowns. The absolute best performance by a slot receiver against the Redskins this year was Larry Fitzgerald who posted 7/76/0 against them way back in Week 1. Sanu has also been dealing with a hip injury that had him extremely questionable for their Week 7 contest, though the bye week likely came at the right time. It’s not a matchup to exploit, but knowing the Falcons won’t be able to run the ball against them does lighten it up just a bit. He should be considered a middling WR4 for those with the bye week blues.
Paul Richardson: He’s been the best fantasy option among the wide receiver corps, but that’s not saying much. He’s still yet to catch more than four passes or 63 yards on the season, and that’s despite plus-matchups against the Colts, Packers, Saints, and Giants. He has seen at least five targets in 5-of-6 games played, so there’s appeal in this matchup, as the Falcons have allowed 2.06 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league. Richardson has also caught two of the three Redskins wide receiver touchdowns this year, and the Falcons have allowed 12 wide receiver touchdowns on the year, so there’s hope. He moves all over the formation, so there isn’t a specific cornerback matchup he’ll have all game. He should be considered a middling WR4 in this matchup where you want to like him more, but he’s had other great matchups that haven’t gone so well.
Josh Doctson: He’s now seen 17 targets in the last three games, so we have to at least take notice that they’re trying to get him the ball. He’s turned those targets into 11/111/0, in other words, mediocre results. He will match-up with Robert Alford most of the game, the Falcons weakest link to this point. He’s allowing 18.5 yards per reception in his coverage, including four touchdowns on 42 targets. We’ve kind of seen this throughout Alford’s career where he’s up-and-down, though the loss of both safeties (Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen) seems to have been the nail in the coffin. You can’t feel confident playing Doctson as anything more than a WR5, but given his recent target spike, he could post a solid game in this matchup.
Jamison Crowder: He’s now missed each of the last three games and we don’t know if he’ll be able to play this week, but we do know that Crowder has struggled to play efficiently through injuries in years past. The Falcons had experimented with nickel cornerback Brian Poole at safety but that didn’t really work out, so they moved him back into the slot the last few weeks. He’s the definition of an average cornerback (maybe even slightly below average) but knowing that Crowder may not be at 100 percent and that he’s seen more than four targets just once this year, feel free to avoid him in fantasy until we see him get through a game. Update: Crowder has been ruled out for this game.
TEs
Austin Hooper: After his meteoric rise to elite status from Week 5 to Week 6, Hooper came back down to earth versus the Giants in Week 7 when he saw just four targets. The matchups were simply too good to pass up against the Steelers and Bucs, but it does tell us that the Falcons are utilizing the opponent’s biggest weakness. Unfortunately, the Redskins haven’t struggled against tight ends and have allowed just 1.42 PPR points per target to them, which ranks third-best in the NFL. In fact, no tight end has totaled 50 yards against them this year, and they’ve played against Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, and Evan Engram. It’s not one of those weeks where you should feel compelled to start Hooper. He’s just a mediocre TE2 this week.
Jordan Reed: After a one-target game against the Saints, Reed has now seen 25 targets over the last three weeks, yet he’s got just 14 catches for 117 scoreless yards to show for it. By comparison, his teammate Vernon Davis has 10 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets this season. It seems that him and his new quarterback just aren’t on the same page. The Falcons defense has allowed the 16th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year, and that’s despite missing their top two safeties and top inside linebacker, which is quite impressive. It’s not due to lack of targets, either, as there have been five different tight ends who’ve seen at least four targets against them. It’s really not a matchup to expect a turnaround for Reed, but hey, we’ve been wrong on his outlook in good matchups. He’s still on the low-end TE1 radar due to the number of targets he’s seeing and lack of competency at tight end in general, but he’s no longer a must-play.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 50.5
Line: MIN by 5.5
QBs
Matthew Stafford: While the overall numbers from last week don’t look that bad, a lot of them came late in the game when they were down three scores. The Seahawks weren’t pressuring him at an alarming rate, but Stafford simply looked awkward trying to navigate the pocket on Sunday. Similar to how I felt after the Week 1 debacle, it’s just one game. The issue is that he’ll now play a Vikings defense in Minnesota who just shut down the Saints offense, holding Brees to just 120 yards passing, his lowest total since 2006 in a game where he threw the ball five times. Granted, he didn’t have to pass much, but that’s the way it’s been in Minnesota. They’ve allowed just 193.2 passing yards per game at home, while allowing 296.0 yards per game on the road. Outside of a two-week stretch where they allowed Jared Goff and Carson Wentz seven touchdowns, the Vikings have allowed just five passing touchdowns in their other six games. It’s also a divisional game where these teams know each other very well, so it’s an added risk. We also cannot ignore the elephant in the room… Golden Tate, his safety blanket, is gone. When these two teams played in Minnesota last year, Stafford finished the game with 19-for-31 passing for 209 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, he hasn’t thrown for more than 286 yards or two touchdowns in his last nine meetings with them. He’s just a middling QB2 in this game.
Kirk Cousins: Through eight games, he’s just five yards behind Patrick Mahomes for the league-lead in yards (2,521), though Cousins has thrown 56 more pass attempts than him. His 7.4 yards per attempt actually ranks behind Eli Manning, Brock Osweiler, and Ryan Tannehill. With a lack of a run-game, his volume will continue to be there. The Lions defense has been pretty bad across the board this year, though some will say that they aren’t too bad considering they rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. That’s largely in-part to the lack of attempts against them, as they’ve faced just 200 pass attempts through seven games, which averages out to just 28.6 per game, the lowest mark in the NFL (closest is the Raiders at 30.6 per game). On a per-target basis, the Lions have been awful, allowing 8.61 yards per attempt (4th-most), 0.63 fantasy points per pass attempt (2nd-most), and a 7.5 percent touchdown-rate (tied with Bucs for highest in NFL). If Cousins drops back and passes 40-plus times like he has in four of the last six games, he could go off in this matchup. He should be considered a rock-solid QB1 who doesn’t have to deal with weather issues. Update: His upside does take a hit if Stefon Diggs can’t go, which appears to be the case.
RBs
Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount: With Theo Riddick out of the lineup again last week, Johnson totaled 14 of the 19 running back touches for the Lions, which is a good sign, though the offense producing just 14 points is obviously not. Last week against the Saints duo of Kamara/Ingram was the first time all year the Vikings had allowed a team of running backs total more than 90 yards, which is quite ridiculous when they’ve now played half of their season. They were also down a few players on defense who may be coming back this week, so it’s not a great matchup for the Lions backfield. They’ve yet to allow a running back more than 83 yards on the ground, with Todd Gurley being the only one who totaled more than 59 yards and more than 16.1 PPR points against them, which tells a story in itself. The area where Johnson would have to make his mark is in the receiving game once again, as the Vikings have allowed seven running backs to total at least 28 yards through the air with limited volume. I say that because the Vikings have allowed 1.93 PPR points per target to running backs, which is the most in the league, though they’ve only faced 51 targets through eight games. If the Lions want to succeed here, it’s through their running backs in the passing game. With Golden Tate gone, it should actually increase their volume. If Riddick misses another week, Johnson can be played as a middling RB2 in standard, but a high-end RB2 in PPR. If Riddick suits up, it obviously lowers Johnson into low-end RB2 territory with a limited ceiling. This is not a week to trust Blount, as the Vikings have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year. Update: Riddick appears on track to play this week, which could limit Johnson’s ceiling, though it does somewhat offset by the Tate trade.
Latavius Murray: It was a brutal matchup for Murray last week, but it was a good sign to see him find the end zone, as the Saints have been a bottom-five matchup for running backs this season. After starting out slow, the passing-game has now opened up some holes for Murray, as he’s totaled 280 yards on 52 carries (5.38 yards per carry) over the last three weeks with four touchdowns. The Lions traded for defensive tackle Damon Harrison last week, and he played a pretty standard 62 percent of the snaps, though the Seahawks running backs still managed to run for 138 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries. Through seven games, the Lions are still allowing a league-leading 5.53 yards per carry. In a game where the Vikings should be able to move the ball, Murray should get some more goal-line opportunities, making him a low-end RB1 in Week 9 and someone who can be played in all DFS formats. Update: It seems that Dalvin Cook may give it a go this week, though I’d expect him to be on the wrong side of a timeshare. If Cook is active, he’s in the RB3 conversation, while Murray would be moved down into the middling to low-end RB2 rankings.
WRs
Kenny Golladay: Did Golladay put the No. 89 on his back with the name tag ‘Cooper’ last week? That’s the only excuse I could come up with for him to see one target. The Seahawks don’t shadow receivers, so something was clearly going on here. You don’t want to say it was an injury because he played the entire game, but whatever the case, we’ll have to write it off as just a bad gameplan. He’s now seen just three targets the last two games, so we must monitor if this is an ongoing thing with him, though it makes no sense considering how efficient he’s been with his targets this season. Of the 71 wide receivers who have seen at least 30 targets, he ranks ninth in yards per target. It does obviously help to know that Golden Tate was traded this week, which clears up nearly 10 targets per game to the rest of the offense. The Vikings were without Xavier Rhodes last week who is dealing with a foot injury, though he was close to playing versus the Saints. The Vikings then had to turn to undrafted Holton Hill (who was a favorite of mine during the scouting process – fell due to off-the-field concerns) and he filled in extremely well. Outside of the Rams high-flying offense that had three wide receivers go over 100 yards in that Thursday night massacre during Week 4, the Vikings haven’t allowed a receiver more than 81 yards against them. It wouldn’t hurt if Rhodes was out again, and it’s good to know that his volume should increase. He’s someone you should plug-in as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.
Marvin Jones: As mentioned last week, when Jones is in one-on-one coverage, Stafford will throw it up to him. He’s the one player on the Lions who didn’t let owners down last week, as he posted season-highs in targets (10), receptions (7), yards (117), and touchdowns (2). The end result of the game wasn’t ideal, but that obviously wasn’t Jones’ fault. He matched up with Xavier Rhodes last year on Thanksgiving and posted 6/109/2 against him, but was held to just 2/42/0 in their matchup that took place in Minnesota. We don’t know if Rhodes will play after missing the Week 8 game against the Saints, but even if he does play, you have to wonder if they don’t have him shadow anyone. Despite allowing the Rams four wide receivers in Week 4, the Vikings have still allowed just two wide receiver touchdowns outside of that game, so it’s not a time to look for a repeat performance. Even before the Tate trade, we were seeing a lack of targets for Golladay the last few weeks with Jones making his way back into the WR3 conversation, so he should continue to be plugged-in as an upside WR3.
Adam Thielen: Just what the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football needs, a matchup with one of the league’s worst defenses against slot receivers. Defending the slot as a team, they’ve allowed 40-of-53 passing for 598 yards and five touchdowns. It’s clearly been a problem for Lions, because they’ve allowed four wide receivers to score 18-plus PPR points against them, and three of them were slot-heavy receivers (Danny Amendola, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Quincy Enunwa). You don’t need me to tell you to start Thielen every single week. He’s safe for DFS lineups as well, as he goes for an NFL record nine straight games of 100-plus receiving yards. He’s currently tied at eight games with Calvin Johnson.
Stefon Diggs (DOUBTFUL): With the attention that Thielen is starting to get, it was only a matter of time before Diggs started to deliver. Running man-coverage against him will end poorly for the defensive back, and in this case, it’s Darius Slay. The combination of the two is somewhat magical, as most look at Slay as a top-tier cornerback and one to avoid in matchups. But here’s the thing… When in man coverage this year, he’s allowing a near perfect passer rating (151.0), while Diggs has posted a 122.7 WR Rating when the defensive back is in man coverage, compared to just 76.8 against zone coverage. The Vikings can kind of pick their poison in this game, so it does present some risk for cash game purposes, but Diggs should be looked at as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for this contest. The Lions have allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 11.1 targets this year, which ranks as the second-worst mark in the NFL. Update: It seems that Diggs is going to miss this game due to a hip injury, so make sure to have a viable alternative ready to slot in.
TEs
Luke Willson: We didn’t know if the Lions would use Michael Roberts in a bigger role after his two-touchdown performance, but the answer is “no.” He ran just 13 routes compared to the 25 routes for Willson, who saw a season-high four targets. Think about that for a minute. You aren’t using Willson in any league you actually care about, especially when you know that Lions tight ends have seen four red zone targets all year, and that Willson has seen exactly zero of them, while Roberts has seen all four of them. You shouldn’t be looking at Lions tight ends as fantasy targets even though the Vikings aren’t the worst matchup. It does help that Tate was traded, but we’ve yet to see them involve the tight ends.
Kyle Rudolph: The nightmare season has continued for Rudolph, who has now failed to reach 60 yards or a touchdown since way back in Week 3. He did see a rather-high seven targets against the Saints last week, but could only turn them into 4/39/0, though it was a tough matchup. The Lions defense hasn’t faced many attempts per game, which is why tight ends have only seen 45 targets through seven games, but they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per target to the position, so it’s not a bad matchup for Rudolph. Going back to the idea that the Vikings have many avenues for fantasy points in this matchup, so it’s up to them to choose which area to exploit. Rudolph hasn’t been a large part of their plans to this point, so it’s tough to think it starts now with so many other plus-matchups on the field. He’s in the low-end TE1 conversation, but he’s far from a sure thing.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 47.5
Line: BAL by 3.0
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: It’s a rematch of the two, as they played in Pittsburgh back in Week 4 where Roethlisberger posted just 274 yards (5.8 yards per attempt) and one touchdown, finishing as the QB20 that week. Now he gets to go into Baltimore against a Ravens team who’s coming off a bad road loss to the Panthers? Prior to that game, the Ravens had allowed just one quarterback to total more than 18.0 fantasy points against them, ranking as one of the top-three defenses against quarterbacks. While at home this year, they’ve held Drew Brees to 212/2, Case Keenum to 192/0, and Bills quarterbacks to 98/0. Here’s the last four results of Roethlisberger going into Baltimore: 216/1/1, 264/1/1, 220/0/2, 217/0/1. Keep in mind that he’s playing arguably the worst (actual) football he has in some time, though last week was a step in the right direction. The Ravens are relatively healthy on defense, too, so it’s not as if there’s areas to exploit. Roethlisberger is just a middling QB2 in this matchup and not one you should feel the need to play.
Joe Flacco: After the first four games of the season where he averaged 313.0 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions, Flacco has started to regress. Over his last four games he’s averaged just 251.8 yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions while completing just 57.9 percent of his passes. The last time he played the Steelers, he had what was his best game of the season totaling 363 yards and two touchdowns, but that game was in Pittsburgh. For whatever reason, both he and Roethlisberger play better there, as evidenced by the points scored. Over the last four years, the game’s total has never exceeded 37 points (average of 34.8 points) in Baltimore. Meanwhile, the four games in Pittsburgh have never netted less than 40 points (average of 60.3 points). You’d have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time Flacco threw more than two touchdowns against the Steelers, and despite playing them 20 times in his career, he’s topped 300 yards against them just twice. The Steelers defense has also started to play better as of late, holding each of the last three quarterbacks to 285 yards or less and a combined 5.2 yards per attempt, which ranks as the best in the NFL over the last three weeks. Flacco is on the middling QB2 radar due to the success he had against this defense in Week 4, but it was a very different scenario while in Pittsburgh.
RBs
James Conner: Here’s a fun stat (credit to Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN) for those who are aboard the “Conner is the back to own in Pittsburgh” bandwagon: He now has 179.2 PPR points through seven games. Over the course of Le’Veon Bell‘s career, he’s never scored more than 146.8 PPR points through seven Steelers games. It hasn’t been all roses for Conner, as he struggled from Week 2 through Week 4, but he’s been a man on a mission the last three games, totaling at least 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns in every contest. Unfortunately, one of the weeks he struggled was against the Ravens, who have now allowed one top-12 performance on the year, thanks to a tipped ball that wound-up in the hands of Christian McCaffrey. Without that deflected ball (that was intended for Devin Funchess), McCaffrey would have finished as the RB21 last week. It was the first time they allowed any running back more than 15.5 PPR points, and they’d already played Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram, Joe Mixon, Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy, and Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman. They’re the best run-defense in the league and have not allowed a single player to finish with 87 total yards against them. Seriously, they’ve allowed just three double-digit performances in PPR formats to running backs this year, which is absurd. He’s just an RB2 this week who’ll need to score in order to not bust.
Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: We had the chart of touch distribution last week on Collins and Allen, which showed Collins starting to pull way ahead of Allen. After the Week 8 game, the gap only got wider, as Collins now has 46 touches over the last three games, while Allen has just 13 touches, which has included just four carries. This means that Allen has used strictly in a passing-down or comeback situations, ala Duke Johnson. What did the Ravens do? Went out and traded for Ty Montgomery, who’ll likely kick Allen out of that role, though it likely won’t be this week. Collins did lose a fumble last week, though it was on a play where he was hit immediately as he was handed the ball, so there wasn’t much he could do about it. So, while you shouldn’t expect any discipline, the matchup isn’t a good one against the Steelers. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and there’s not an area where they’re being exploited. They’ve allowed just 3.52 yards per carry and have yet to allow a running back more than 75 yards on the ground, which includes Collins who totaled just 42 yards on 11 carries in their first meeting this year. If you think that maybe he can get it done through the air, the Steelers have allowed just 174 receiving yards to running backs, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. Collins is a touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 this week and not one you should feel you must start. Allen is off the radar.
WRs
Antonio Brown: After a rocky start, the Roethlisberger-Brown connection is back. They’ve now connected for at least five receptions, 50 yards, and a touchdown in each of the last five games, including five touchdowns the last three games. The issue awaiting them is the Ravens secondary that’s been one of the best in football. On the year, they’ve allowed just seven wide receivers to post more than 11.9 PPR points against them, which is top-five in the NFL. They’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard wide receiver despite playing against Brown, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, and Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas. Here’s Brown’s career numbers while playing in Baltimore (most recent first): 4/34/0, 7/85/1, 7/61/0, 7/90/0, 5/59/0, 5/58/0, 2/14/0, and 3/26/0. Those lines look MUCH different than the ones when he’s at home, which is likely due to Roethlisberger’s struggles on the road. He still needs to be played in season-long leagues as a low-end WR1, but he’s someone you shouldn’t have much exposure to in tournaments.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: If there’s one area of weakness in the Ravens secondary, it’s the slot, which is where Smith-Schuster plays 80 percent of the time. The Ravens have continually stuck Tavon Young there and he’s allowed a 70.8 percent catch-rate, 12.6 yards per reception, and two touchdowns in his coverage, though he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in his coverage since back in Week 2. He may struggle with the much bigger Smith-Schuster (Young is 5-foot-9, 185 pounds while Smith-Schuster is 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds), though he held his own in the Week 4 meeting when Smith-Schuster was targeted 11 times but caught just four of them for 60 yards. Roethlisberger was not good in that game and hasn’t been good while in Baltimore over his career, but Smith-Schuster is the matchup that should return value. Consider him a middling WR2 who should provide a solid floor.
John Brown: We’ve unfortunately started to see Brown’s floor in two of the last three weeks with Flacco struggling, as he’s totaled just 28 yards in those games. Last week’s matchup proved to be somewhat difficult as Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson matched the speed of Brown. He’s still seen at least seven targets in six of the last seven games, so you shouldn’t be too concerned. Brown was one of the four wide receivers who’s been able to post 100-plus yards against the Steelers secondary, though 71 yards of it came on one play in their Week 4 meeting. The Steelers are likely to have Joe Haden match-up with Crabtree while Brown will be bracketed, though he should shake loose at times and is seeing enough targets (he’s seen a massive 37.5 percent of Flacco’s air yards, which ranks seventh in the NFL) to be considered a high-end WR3, though his floor is obviously lower than we’d like.
Michael Crabtree: The production hasn’t matched it, but Crabtree ranks 10th among wide receivers with 69 targets through eight weeks. His 6.4 yards per target isn’t much and he’s seen just six red zone targets, so it’s unlikely he’ll develop into much more than he’s been to this point. He’s likely to be shadowed by Joe Haden this week, who’s done a great job in coverage the last four games, not allowing more than 69 yards in his coverage despite going against Julio Jones and A.J. Green in two of the games. In their first meeting, Crabtree saw a very respectable eight targets, but turned them into just three catches for 29 yards. Knowing that he’s got to get it done over-and-over and that he cannot rely on one big play to make his fantasy day, he’s in the low-end WR3 conversation this week, even with six teams on bye this week.
Willie Snead: Raise your hand if you knew that Snead ranks top-20 in targets among wide receivers. Now put your hand down, liar. He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last five games and though he’s not offering any sort of ceiling, he’s totaled at least five catches and 54 yards in four of those games. The Steelers slot cornerback Mike Hilton has been phenomenal over the last two years, though, allowing just 9.2 yards per reception and one touchdown on 74 targets in coverage. Snead plays nearly 85 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he’ll see a lot of Hilton. Hilton was out during their Week 4 matchup, which allowed Snead to rack up 6/56/0 on seven targets, though he’s not likely going to repeat. He’s still on the WR4 radar due to his number of targets, but he’s not a great play in this game.
TEs
Vance McDonald: If you haven’t sat down and watched McDonald, you really should. He seems like someone who’s continually a chore for opposing defenses to bring down. He’s seen at least five targets in 4-of-6 games this year, though it’s not confidence inspiring that he’s coming off a game where he saw just three targets. The Ravens are middle of the pack, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but they’re a plus-matchup for fantasy floors, as they’ve allowed 44 receptions (5th-most) and 510 yards (9th-most) to them, but have allowed just two touchdowns to them (bright side is that both have come in the last two weeks), which has limited production. The one touchdown per 30.0 tight end targets ranks as the 9th-toughest in the league. McDonald caught all five of his targets against them in Week 4 for 62 yards, so it’s not a bad looking matchup. He’s on the high-end TE2 radar and can be considered a solid streaming option.
Hayden Hurst: Have we finally reached the point where Hurst is going to pass Mark Andrews in routes? He ran 17 last week while Andrews ran 20 of them, so we’re trending in that direction. Hurst also caught a touchdown late in that game, though it was from Lamar Jackson. We did hear John Harbaugh say that they wanted to get Hurst more involved going forward, so we’ll consider him the tight end to play for the Ravens. It’s a great matchup this week, as the Steelers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Quarterbacks have completed 74.2 percent of their passes directed at tight ends against them, so any volume is welcomed. The last time these two teams played, Maxx Williams, Nick Boyle, and Mark Andrews combined for 10/99/0, which looks to be a solid floor. The Steelers have now allowed six top-12 tight end performances this year, which tied for the most in the league. Hurst is on the streaming radar, especially when you consider six teams are on their bye week.
