The Primer: Week 13 Edition (Fantasy Football)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 46.0
Line: SEA by 10.0

QBs
Nick Mullens: We have another week of Mullens under center and this time it’ll be on the road against the Seahawks. He didn’t have Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon last week, and it seems he may be without them again, as Goodwin is dealing with a personal issue, while Garcon is dealing with a knee injury. Not just that, but it’s a brutal matchup against the Seahawks who may look like they’re struggling on paper, but they’ve played a gauntlet of quarterbacks since their bye in Week 7. Matthew Stafford (when everyone was healthy), Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton. Yeah, not so much fun. Still, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season with none throwing for more than two touchdowns since Week 1. You won’t even get a ton of attempts because the Seahawks opponents average just 58.5 plays per game which is the second-fewest in the league. Mullens has a better chance at getting benched than he does posting top-12 numbers.

Russell Wilson: What happens when you take a quarterback who’s thrown just three interceptions the last 10 games with a team who’s intercepted just two passes all season? What about when that quarterback has thrown 18 touchdowns on his last 188 attempts (9.6 percent) and that defense has allowed a 5.8 percent touchdown-rate? The issue here is that the Seahawks should win this game and the 49ers don’t possess a threat to rack-up points, so we could see one of the signature 20-attempt games. It’s a divisional game and Wilson didn’t light them up last year posting 198/1/0 and 228/2/1 against them, and he didn’t have a run-game last year. The Seahawks are averaging a league-high 31.9 rushing attempts per game, so expect them to drive the run-game at home. Wilson should be very efficient when he does pass, but it likely won’t be all that often. Because of that, his upside is capped and should remain as a low-end QB1 this week.

RBs
Matt Breida: He’s played very well the last few weeks, though we cannot forget that he played against the Bucs and Giants, two teams who’ve been destroyed against the run as of late. The Seahawks haven’t been great over the last four games, either. They’ve allowed 424 yards on 64 carries (6.63 yards per carry) and four touchdowns over their last four games, though it’s important to note their matchups were against Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey. Each of them finished as a top-12 running back, including the RB1 performance of the week to McCaffrey as he totaled 239 total yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers aren’t going to walk into Seattle and expect to go pass-for-pass with the Seahawks, so expect them to run the ball as much as possible, though the Seahawks have faced just 18.5 carries per game, which is the third-fewest in the league. Their opponents average just 58.5 plays per game, which is the second-fewest in the league. But Breida is healthy and has totaled at least 17 touches the last two weeks, so he should be in the lineup as a low-end RB2 this week against a struggling Seahawks run-defense.

Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Rashaad Penny: In the last six games where Carson has played the full game, he’s totaled at least 14 carries in every game and has totaled at least 17 touches in five of them. This game against the 49ers sets up very well for him, as they recently had to cut inside linebacker Rueben Foster, and are a team who fails to put points on the scoreboard. That would mean the Seahawks are likely to rack up the attempts in this game, which is should give Carson 18-plus touches in a home game as a 10-point favorite. The 49ers have allowed just 3.88 yards per carry this year but have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 28.9 rushing attempts. Keep in mind that the loss of Foster isn’t going to help, nor is the injury to safety Jaquiski Tartt who suffered a stinger in the Week 12 game. Carson should be played as a high-floor RB2 this week. As for Davis and Penny, they’ll be mixed-in, but it likely favors Penny’s role a bit more. Why? Because Davis is more the three-down back on the offense, and it’s unlikely they’ll be in many situations that would call for his services. Penny is an RB4 while Davis is still in the RB4/5 conversation considering how many carries the Seahawks might rack-up in this game.

WRs
Marquise Goodwin: It seems unlikely he plays, as he’s got some personal issues he’s currently dealing with and is away from the team. If we hear anything about him playing, we’ll re-visit him in the notes. Update: He’s not playing this week. 

Dante Pettis: It only took injuries to the top two receivers for Pettis to see more playing time. He should have been playing long ago, but we’ll take it now rather than never. The Seahawks are coming off a game where they allowed fellow rookie D.J. Moore pop-off for 8/91/0 on nine targets last week. They’ve now allowed at least one receiver to post 91 yards against them in each of the last five games, including six receivers with six or more receptions. Pettis played more snaps than any wide receiver and moves all over the formation, so there isn’t any one cornerback he’ll face-off against most of the time. This is the definition of a mediocre secondary facing off against a receiver who’s got a very short resume and a questionable quarterback situation. Pettis makes sense as a low-end WR4 if Goodwin and Garcon are out (they are), but he comes with more risk that you’d like.

Doug Baldwin: The groin injury that had him on the injury report last week didn’t seem to affect Baldwin at all last week, as he ran his routes as crisp as he usually does and saw seven targets in the process. The results weren’t there, though he should’ve scored a touchdown where Wilson’s throw was just flat-out off target. The 49ers have allowed 18 top-36 performances to wide receivers this year. Of them, nine were slot-heavy wide receivers, which Baldwin just happens to be. The 49ers’ secondary is getting ultra-thin as they just lost Jimmie Ward for the season and have Jaquiski Tartt dealing with a stinger. While K’Waun Williams is not the worst nickel cornerback, he doesn’t have the support he needs around him to make his life easier. Knowing how much problems slot receivers have caused the 49ers, Baldwin should be in-play as a high-end WR3 this week. Here’s the list of slot-heavy receivers against them this year:

Tyler Lockett: There’s still been just one game this season where Lockett has seen more than six targets, but he keeps breaking regression models as he’s scored a touchdown once every 6.8 targets. I sound like a broken record, but it’s only a matter of time before that number rises. He has, however, now totaled at least 67 yards in three straight games, which should help cover up for the regression. He’s going to see a lot of Richard Sherman in coverage this week, his former teammate who’s been really good, allowing just a 55 percent catch-rate, though he has allowed a robust 16.6 yards per reception. The Seahawks also move Lockett into the slot quite a bit, so he’s not tied to Sherman or anything. The other matchups on the field are appealing, but the concern here is how many times Wilson actually throws the ball. Lockett is in the WR3 conversation this week, but he’s not a safe play by any means.

David Moore: Not only has Lockett defied the odds, but Moore has done the same thing, tallying a touchdown every 7.4 targets that come his way. To explain just how nuts this is, wide receivers averaged a touchdown once every 22.8 targets in 2017. Moore looks fantastic and actually has more seven-plus target games than Lockett, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in the same conversation. Moore will see the most of Ahkello Witherspoon in coverage, and that’s a really good thing, as he’s allowed five touchdowns on just 59 targets this year, or one every 11.8 targets. As is the case with Lockett and Baldwin, this game looks to have the classic 20-attempt gamescript for Wilson which would obviously limit his fantasy floor, especially when we know regression has to hit at some point, right? Moore needs to be considered a high-end WR4 in this offense, though this isn’t a week where he’s a lock to make it into lineups.

TEs
George Kittle: It was a disappointing performance for Kittle last week, as he totaled “just” six catches for 48 yards in a clear-cut smash spot, as Mullens played a bad game. It’ll be much tougher against the Seahawks who have allowed just 3.4 receptions per game (2nd-fewest) to tight ends and have allowed just 9.7 yards per reception on them (5th-fewest). Teams haven’t targeted tight ends against them much and I suppose because Bradley McDougald has done a great job with them, but he’ll likely be tested in this game. While in coverage, he’s allowed 34-of-43 passing for 372 yards and three touchdowns, but he’s also picked-off three passes. With little else to throw to, Mullens has targeted Kittle 22 times over the last two weeks and something tells me he’ll be seeing eight-plus targets once again in this game. When getting that volume, you have to start him as a TE1, even if the matchup is a bad one.

Nick Vannett: He’s seen just two targets in each of the last three games and finished with just 2/22/0 against the Panthers last week, the team who’s allowed the most points to the tight end position. There’s been just one time in the last seven weeks where Wilson has targeted Vannett more than four times, and it came against the Chargers in Week 9 when Wilson threw the ball 39 times. That’s not going to happen against the 49ers, who don’t pose much of a threat to the Seahawks. They’ve allowed just a 62 percent catch-rate to tight ends, which ranks as the seventh-lowest in football, and even when completed, they’ve allowed just 11.6 yards per reception and five touchdowns on the year. Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham were the only two who posted top-10 numbers against the 49ers and they both saw at least nine targets. Vannett isn’t anything more than a touchdown-dependent low-end TE2 this week.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 51.5
Line: PIT by 3.5

QBs
Philip Rivers: Can we stop and appreciate just how great of a season Rivers is having? Everyone mentions Drew Brees for the MVP, but why shouldn’t Rivers be included in that conversation?

As you can see, the numbers aren’t much different between the two. Both had defenses that struggled out of the gate, but both carried their teams through it. The Steelers are a tough matchup for him, though, as they’ve been a terrible matchup for quarterbacks ever since Week 4. From Week 5 through Week 12, they’ve yet to allow a quarterback finish better than the QB18 against them, which included matchups against Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, and Cam Newton. With that being said, Rivers just destroyed a Cardinals team with 28-of-29 passing for 259 yards and three touchdowns. They’re a team who’s yet to allow a quarterback finish better than the QB10 all season. It’s now been six straight games where they’ve failed to allow more than 229 yards passing, but Rivers will put them to the test, as he’s their mover of the sticks with Melvin Gordon out of the lineup. He’s not an elite play this week, but it’s impossible to say he’s not at least a low-end QB1 in this game.

Ben Roethlisberger: After playing his best game of the year in Week 10, Roethlisberger has had back-to-back stinkers, though volume has helped salvage his fantasy scores. He has three touchdowns and five interceptions in that time and now has the surging Chargers defense coming to town. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time they allowed more than 23 points, which is a number the Steelers have cracked just once in their last four games, despite all the firepower on their roster. The Chargers have also welcomed Joey Bosa back into the lineup, as he wasted no time racking up two sacks last week. Since the start of Week 5, the Chargers have allowed just one quarterback to post more than one passing score (Russell Wilson) and haven’t allowed any quarterback throw for 300 yards against them. If the Chargers can get pressure on Roethlisberger, it’s going to be a long night, as he’s posted just a 56.1 QB Rating when under pressure this year, which ranks 23rd or the 29 quarterbacks who’ve played at least half of their team’s snaps. It’s always a plus when Roethlisberger is at home and on primetime, so he’s still got to be in the low-end QB1 conversation, but his offensive line needs to do him a solid this week.

RBs
Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson: If you think Ekeler is going to see 20-plus touches with Melvin Gordon out, you may be let down. Since they trusted him to carry the workload in London when filling in for Gordon, where he failed, the Chargers have been hesitant to give him many carries since then. He’s totaled just 17 carries in the four games since and was even out-carried by Jackson last week. It’s not to say that Ekeler won’t receive the majority of touches, but you need to see the trends to account for potential risk. Jackson ran very well last week, too, totaling 57 yards on seven carries. The Steelers were a dominant run-defense at the start of the season but have trended in the wrong direction over the last month, as they’ve allowed 419 yards on 90 carries (4.66 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown in each of the last four games, and another 135 yards and two touchdowns through the air. There’s value to be had in this backfield, and as of now Ekeler should be considered the safer play as a middling RB2. Jackson is a bit of a sleeper play who could see 10-plus carries, as he’s got fresh legs at this point in the season. He shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than an RB4 this week, but don’t be shocked if he’s ranked a bit higher next week.

James Conner: You may have to wonder if Conner is wearing down as the season goes on, as he just hasn’t looked as sharp the last three weeks, totaling 95 total yards or less in each game. This comes after he totaled 129 total yards four weeks straight. The Chargers have been a mediocre matchup for running backs this year, though they’ve looked worse with defensive tackle Corey Liuget off the field, allowing a 51.7 percent success rate without him compared to a 44.1 percent success rate with him. Liuget is out for the year and it could be the reason the Broncos scored three rushing touchdowns against them two weeks ago. The Chargers have also allowed 681 receiving yards to running backs this year, which is the third-most in the league, including 7.65 yards per target. Conner has seen at least five targets in 8-of-11 games this year, so there’s a variety of ways he can score points in this game. With Roethlisberger struggling the last two weeks, the Steelers may want to revitalize the run-game. Conner should be started as a low-end RB1 who should total 18-plus touches.

WRs
Keenan Allen: We knew it was going to happen, right? We’ve been talking about it since Week 8, but Allen has caught fire over the last four weeks, totaling 28 receptions for 342 yards and three touchdowns in that time. It’s also not going to hurt his projection with Melvin Gordon out, as that clears up some targets and some red zone opportunities as well. The Steelers have Joe Haden shadow on the perimeter, but Allen won’t be followed, as he plays over half his snaps in the slot. Six of the 12 receivers to post top-36 numbers against the Steelers have been slot-heavy receivers, like Emmanuel Sanders who posted 7/86/1 last week. With Allen set-up to see 10-plus targets in this game, he’s got to be played as a WR1 and if the Steelers can put up points on the Chargers defense, he could go bananas, as we’ve seen four different receivers go for 100-plus yards against them.

Tyrell Williams: He was questionable all week with an ankle injury and was active but played just nine snaps in the game. With this game on Sunday night, it’s going to be difficult to trust him unless he’s practicing in-full which seems unlikely. He lines up on Joe Haden‘s side of the field most often, which would be a problem for his production as Haden has been great since they started using him in man-coverage a lot more often. I don’t believe they’d shadow either of the Williams’ this week, though I’d shadow Mike if I knew Tyrell wasn’t at 100 percent. You’re better off waiting until you see him play a full complement of snaps before putting him into lineups. He hadn’t even topped 46 yards since Week 7, anyway.

Mike Williams: With Tyrell Williams playing limited snaps and Travis Benjamin being more of a deep-threat, we saw Mike snag four passes for 25 yards last week, with two of them being touchdowns. Every time I sit down and see him targeted, I wonder why he’s not getting more work. He’s now got seven touchdowns on 39 targets, one every 5.6 targets. While that rate won’t continue, volume would help. With Melvin Gordon sidelined, the Chargers will likely lean on the pass just a smidge more in the red zone, which obviously helps Williams. We don’t know if the Steelers would shadow him with Joe Haden, but I’d say it’s unlikely with how little Williams has been used. He’s become a lot more intriguing, though the usage is still minimal making him a touchdown-dependent WR4 against the Steelers.

Antonio Brown: As crazy as it sounds, Smith-Schuster has six more receptions and 181 more yards than Brown on the season despite 12 fewer targets, though Brown has the 11 to 4 edge in touchdowns. Brown ended a nine-game touchdown streak in Week 12, but he’ll look to get back on it in a tough matchup with Casey Hayward this week. After starting out the year on a rough note, Hayward has been dominant since Week 4, allowing just 11-of-23 passing for 139 yards and one touchdown over the last seven games. He’s going to be tested a ton more in this game than he has during that span, but 6.04 yards per target is pretty legit in shadow coverage. He’s never covered Brown during his time with the Chargers, so this should be a fun matchup to watch on Sunday night. Not many cornerbacks can keep Brown in check, but Hayward may limit the upside he offers here. Since playing the Rams in Week 3, the Chargers haven’t allowed a single wide receiver finish as a top-15 option. Brown is still a WR1 this week, but he’s much more likely to finish in the low-end of that conversation this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Coming off his massive 13-catch, 189-yard, one-touchdown game against the Broncos, Smith-Schuster heads into a matchup with Desmond King and the Chargers. King has allowed a massive 83.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but has allowed just 8.6 yards per reception, so he keeps the play in front of him. He’s also allowed just one touchdown on 48 targets in his coverage. He’s not unbeatable, as we’ve seen Cooper Kupp post 71 yards and a touchdown, Tajae Sharpe 101 yards, and Doug Baldwin 77 yards, but he’s not an easy matchup. While Brown deals with Casey Hayward, we should see Smith-Schuster rack-up some targets again, as he’ll also see Michael Davis in coverage, an undrafted second-year cornerback who has played 293 career snaps, allowing a 74 percent catch-rate and 110.7 QB Rating in his coverage. Smith-Schuster has a chance to out-perform Brown again (though I wouldn’t bet on that), making him a high-end WR2.

TEs
Antonio Gates: It’s now been back-to-back weeks where Gates has played at least 25 snaps, something he hadn’t done since way back in Week 1, so we have to pay attention to his usage, especially with Melvin Gordon out, as he’s been their primary red zone threat. After seeing seven targets against the Broncos, he totaled just one target against the Cardinals last week, so it’s far from a guarantee that he sees targets. The Steelers have been a great matchup for tight ends, as there have been eight of them who’ve posted double-digit PPR games against them despite allowing just five touchdowns (with two going to Travis Kelce). With Gordon out and Tyrell Williams questionable, Gates could play a role in this game, but considering he’s topped 27 yards just twice all season, he’s nothing more than a middling TE2.

Jesse James: It seems like the Steelers are likely going to be without both Vance McDonald and Xavier Grimble this week, as they’re both dealing with injuries from last week’s loss. McDonald’s hip injury caused him to leave the game last week in the third-quarter. He also flat-out dropped a touchdown in that game. The Chargers haven’t bee a great matchup for tight ends, though, as they’ve allowed just three tight ends to score more than 9.2 PPR points against them, and all three tight ends saw at least eight targets in those games, a number James hasn’t hit this year. He’s been asked to play a larger role at certain times over the last two years and he’s shown the ability to be streaming material, but Derwin James awaits, the rookie safety who’s allowed just 5.05 yards per target in his coverage. James would be a middling TE2 who has more touchdown upside than most in that range if McDonald misses the game.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 43.5
Line: PHI by 6.5

QBs
Colt McCoy: It’s clear that McCoy isn’t nearly as careful with the ball as Alex Smith was, as his three interceptions in Week 12 were 60 percent as many as Smith threw (five) in 10 games. It might be better for fantasy, though, as McCoy still threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns as well. The 38 attempts he threw in Week 12 was a number that Smith hit in just 3-of-10 games. The Eagles secondary is not good right now and that’s no secret. Since their bye in Week 9, they’ve allowed 74-of-93 passing (79.6 percent) for 930 yards (10.0 yards per attempt) and six touchdowns. Keep in mind that the quarterbacks they played were Dak Prescott, Drew Brees, and Eli Manning. They’ve allowed four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played to finish as top-12 options. It’s unlikely that Peterson is getting many yards on the ground against them, making McCoy a viable QB2 this week.

Carson Wentz: It’s hard to say what’s going on with the Eagles offense, but the addition of Tate hasn’t created the energy it should. Instead, it’s seemingly put them out of sync. Wentz has thrown one touchdown and three interceptions the last two weeks in matchups with the Saints and Giants, which is far from ideal, but in all reality, his completion percentage and yards per attempt have been very similar to the pre-Tate days except for the Saints game. If you knew Wentz and the offense were fine, would you want to play them against the Redskins? They’ve been a defense to attack with quarterbacks as of late, as they’ve allowed big numbers over the last four weeks. They’ve allowed 9.35 yards per attempt during that time, and though they’ve allowed “just” seven touchdowns in those four games, it includes the 406-yard, zero-touchdown game from Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s a divisional game, so the teams do know each other pretty well, but it’s also good to know that Wentz put up 307/2 and 268/4 against them last year. I’m of the mindset that Wentz will be just fine and that this matchup comes at the right time. Consider him a low-end QB1 who should get back on track (though he hasn’t been far off outside the Saints game).

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: The honeymoon may be over for Peterson and the Redskins, as he’s totaled just 171 yards on 56 attempts (3.05 yards per carry) the last four games. It coincides with the time he lost two of his starting offensive guards on the offensive line. He was also without left tackle Trent Williams for a few weeks, and though he returned last week, he had to apparently go to the hospital after the game. He did return to practice this week, so at least he appears to be ready to go once again. The Eagles run-defense had allowed just one running back to top 42 rushing yards against them in the first eight games, but have really been bad since their bye week, allowing three straight 100-yard performances on the ground. It’s important to note they faced Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley in those weeks, but it’s clear the issues in their secondary have leaked into the rest of the defense. Which is more likely to bounce back, the Eagles run-defense or Peterson? I’d say the Eagles run-defense at home against a 33-year-old running back who’s racked-up 183 attempts through 11 games. You probably don’t ever want to doubt Peterson, but he’s nothing more than a high-end RB3 this week. Some will ask about Thompson, so I’ll mention him here, but Thompson himself has said he’s still dealing with pain in his ribs, though it has improved over the weeks. I’d prefer not to trust him this week if you didn’t have to. Just let him get through a game before trusting him with your fantasy life.

Josh Adams and Corey Clement: Many want to plug-and-play Adams, but I’d add a little bit of caution to those fantasy owners. Yes, I trusted Adams last week, but it was an entirely different situation against the Giants who’ve been destroyed by running backs as of late. The Redskins haven’t been great as of late, either, allowing three of the last four teams to play them to rush for 128-plus yards, but they’ve still allowed just six rushing touchdowns through 11 games, which is tied for the ninth-fewest in the league. One very positive note on Adams is that he played 40 snaps last week. For those who have followed me for a while, you remember why I didn’t like Jay Ajayi coming into the season. For the first 42 games under Doug Pederson, there were just six running backs who hit the 40-snap mark, and four of them were Darren Sproles. Adams became the seventh one to hit that mark last week, which is huge for the confidence to play him, and he even had to leave part of the game to have his shoulder examined. The matchup against the Redskins isn’t as great as the one against the Giants last week, but his snaps are enough to plug him in as a low-end RB2 this week who comes with some upside. Clement is falling out of favor and is likely better in a backup role, though he’s looked better as of late. He’s nothing more than a RB4/5 option.

WRs
Josh Doctson: He’s someone who’s absolutely benefited from McCoy under center, as he’s now totaled 17 targets over the last two weeks. He’d never totaled more than 12 targets in back-to-back games with Smith. The Eagles secondary is abysmal right now, as they have Ronald Darby on IR, Jalen Mills has been out since Week 8, Avonte Maddox is questionable, and Sidney Jones is likely out with his hamstring injury. That’s left them starting De’Vante Bausby, Cre’Von LeBlanc, and Chandon Sullivan in the secondary. That’s legit a fourth-quarter preseason trio. With Doctson’s new-found targets in a plus-matchup, he’s on the high-end WR4 radar for the Monday night game. He’s always been someone who can win contested catches, and McCoy threw into tight windows on 18.4 percent of his throws last week. Doctson should be able to gain more separation against these cornerbacks as well, so it should net positive results.

Trey Quinn: Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the connection between McCoy and Quinn grow, as he’s seen 10 targets while hauling in nine receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown. He played more snaps than Maurice Harris last week and will have 11 days in between their games, so he can be fully incorporated into the offense. He runs over 80 percent of his routes from the slot, so he’ll match-up with Cre’Von LeBlanc, who might be the best cornerback in the Eagles secondary right now, as he’s got experience in the league. He’s been beat pretty bad in his short time with the Eagles, though, as he’s allowed 6-of-9 passing for 138 yards and a touchdown. It’s a really small sample size and a lot of the production went to the Packers and Saints, two tough matchups. Quinn is still turning into someone who should be on fantasy radars and is in the WR5 conversation this week.

Alshon Jeffery: After seeing at least eight targets in each of his first four games this year, Jeffery has now totaled five or less targets in three of his last four games. It’s suppressed his fantasy totals, as he’s failed to top 48 yards the last month and he hasn’t scored since Week 7. He’s going to see Josh Norman in this matchup, which is obviously the toughest matchup in the Redskins secondary, though Jeffery is more talented than Norman at this point in their careers. Despite taking multiple pass interference calls to save touchdowns, Norman has allowed five touchdowns on 53 targets in coverage this year, including two in the last four weeks. Bottom line, Jeffery needs targets to deliver. He should continue to be plugged-in as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 who could pop-off for two touchdowns at any point. He may come with risk, but anyone in his territory does.

Golden Tate: He’s seen 20 targets in his three games with the Eagles, but they’ve only netted 11 receptions for 97 yards and no touchdowns. He’s not likely to become a consistent performer in this offense because we would’ve already seen it ala Amari Cooper in Dallas. The Redskins have Fabien Moreau covering the slot, and though he started the season well, he’s struggled as of late. Over the last five games, he’s allowed 16-of-19 passing for 314 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. That’s obviously not great, but it’s good for a 153.8 QB Rating when targeting him. Tate has seen eight targets in each of the last two games, so it’s very tempting, but to expect anything more than high-end WR4 numbers is risky. He’s a good tournament option in DFS this week, as his reward could be worth the risk.

Nelson Agholor: He’s still playing more snaps than Tate, but he’s not doing anything with them, as he has one catch for 12 yards over the last two weeks. His matchup against Quinton Dunbar is a good one, as he’s allowed five touchdowns on his last 39 targets in coverage, and just returned from his shin injury in Week 12, allowing 88 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. But Agholor on the perimeter is not good Agholor outside of a long bomb, which did happen a few weeks back against the Cowboys. He’s a starting receiver for Wentz, so he remains on the WR5 radar in a plus-matchup, but his production on the perimeter over the course of his career doesn’t inspire confidence.

TEs
Jordan Reed: Just another pass-catcher who’s benefited from McCoy’s presence, as he’s now totaled 19 targets over the last two weeks, netting 13 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the Eagles haven’t been a great matchup for tight ends, allowing just a 62.3 percent catch-rate (8th-lowest), 7.3 yards per target (12th-lowest), and two touchdowns (4th-fewest). That all amounts to the fifth-fewest PPR points to tight ends, but you have to wonder if the cornerback issues they have will change the way they’re able to contain tight ends. Reed himself is more of a wide receiver at 6-foot-2 and 236 yards, so it’s not a matchup that you absolutely need to avoid. He should be considered a low-end TE1 this week and one who comes with more upside than most in that range.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 51.5
Line: NO by 7.0

QBs
Drew Brees: If there’s one thing Brees hasn’t had to worry about this year, it’s pressure. He’s been sacked a league-low 10 times all season, which might be a problem for the Cowboys. Their biggest strength is the pass-rush, as they rely on them to cover some deficiencies in their secondary. Quarterbacks have completed a rather-high 69.1 percent of passes against them, so combining that with Brees’ league-leading 76.4 percent completion rate and you’re going to have problems. Brees will once again be without his left tackle Terron Armstead, though it hasn’t mattered the last two weeks, as he was sacked just once against the Falcons and Eagles combined. The Cowboys opponents have averaged just 33.3 attempts per game, though Brees hasn’t needed more than 36 pass attempts to get his job since Week 3, so it’s unlikely that pace of play is even a concern. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns on his last 113 pass attempts (13.3 percent), so you don’t need me to tell you he’s a must-start.

Dak Prescott: We’ve seen the Saints defense come alive as of late, as they’ve allowed just 12.7 points per game to the Bengals, Eagles, and Falcons, which is much better than the 27.3 points per game they allowed in the first eight games. Prescott has been playing much better as well, as he’s been getting it done in many different ways. He’s now scored 20 or more fantasy points in four of the last six games and hasn’t fallen below 14.8 points since way back in Week 5. After reaching 30 pass attempts just once without Amari Cooper in the first seven games, he’s now thrown at least 31 pass attempts in each of the last four games with Cooper. The Saints have allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt this year, which is the fourth-highest number this year. There’s been just two quarterbacks all year who’ve totaled less than 7.1 yards per attempt (Eli Manning, Carson Wentz) against them this year. The issue with expecting a big performance out of Prescott is the pace of the game, as the two teams’ opponents have combined for just 120.7 plays per game. Still, the Saints are one of the best in the league at stopping the run, so it’ll be Prescott who’s relied on to move the ball. He should be considered a high-floor QB2 who has a somewhat limited ceiling.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: It’s been a few quiet weeks for Kamara and it’s not going to be easy to get back on the elite track against the Cowboys who have now held all but two teams of running backs under 90 yards rushing. Even without Sean Lee the last few weeks, they’ve held the Eagles, Falcons, and Redskins running backs to just 184 rushing yards and one touchdown combined. The only two teams who were able to post 100-plus yards on the ground against them were the Seahawks (who totaled 36 attempts in Week 3) and Redskins (who totaled 26 carries back in Week 7). A big reason for that is due to the lack of plays for opponents, as they’ve faced just 61.5 plays per game this year. We have seen five different running backs eclipse 40 receiving yards against them, including a 14-catch, 80-yard game to Saquon Barkley, so that bodes well for Kamara, but it’ll be tough for him to finish as a top-three option in this game. He’s still a rock-solid RB1 who you play no matter what. Ingram is someone who relies a bit more on gamescript and points going up on the board. The Cowboys are allowing just 19.4 points per game, which ranks top-five in the NFL, so when you combine that with the 3.64 yards per carry they allow, it’s not great. He’s in the middling RB2 conversation due to the offense he plays in, but it’s unlikely that both running backs come out of this game as RB1’s.

Ezekiel Elliott: Most don’t realize it, but the Saints might be the best run defense in the league. They’ve allowed a league-low 3.24 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns all year, despite teams having plenty of garbage-time opportunities. The Saints do play keep-away better than any other team in the NFL, as their opponents average just 59.2 plays per game, but their efficiency against the run hasn’t changed regardless. There have been just four running backs all year who’ve finished as a top-20 option against them, though none of them topped 68 yards on the ground. None of them (including Todd Gurley) have finished better than the RB9, either. Part of the reason is because no running back has totaled 20 touches against them, a number Elliott hits on a regular basis (8-of-11 games this year). With Elliott’s involvement in the passing-game (32 targets over the last five games), you have nothing to worry about with his floor, but his ceiling is lower than it typically is. Consider him a middling RB1 who can make up for a lack of yardage with a touchdown or two.

WRs
Michael Thomas: After a down week against the Falcons, Thomas will have a tougher matchup in Week 13 when he plays against a Cowboys secondary that’s allowed just five wide receivers all season to reach 14 PPR points against them. That sounds unrealistic, but it’s true. Julio Jones, Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, and Keke Coutee are the only receivers to accomplish that against them. A big part of the reason is due to volume, as receivers have averaged just 17.4 targets per game against them, which ranks as the third-fewest in the NFL. He’s going to see Byron Jones for much of the day, who’s been their best cornerback, allowing just a 50 percent catch-rate in coverage with just 11.3 yards per reception. The Saints do move Thomas around quite a bit and he’ll also go into the slot to exploit the matchup with Anthony Brown, so it’s not as if you’re worried about starting him. He’s a WR1 every week, but knowing they’ve allowed just two top-10 PPR receviers against them all year, he may not be someone to be overexposed to in DFS this week.

Tre’Quan Smith: After missing last week, Smith comes with a little extra risk in lineups. It was crazy that everyone was willing to overlook his resume this year when wanting to play him last week, as his ECR on the site was as a top-24 receiver. The Cowboys have been a terrible matchup for wide receivers, especially one like Smith who’d have to get it done continually, as the Cowboys have allowed just 13.3 yards per reception and a 62.8 percent completion rate to wide receivers. They’ve also allowed just 10.9 receptions per week to opposing teams of wide receivers, and when you have Michael Thomas on your team, you know it’s not likely you’re getting the bigger piece of the pie. He’ll see Chidobe Awuzie in coverage more than half the time, who has been the weakest link on the defense allowing four touchdowns on 58 targets, but he’s kept the play in front of him for the most part. Smith has Brees throwing to him, so you never can fully cross him off your list, but he’s just an upside WR4-type option in a weak matchup.

Amari Cooper: We’re now four games into his Cowboys tenure and he’s accumulated 32 targets, 22 receptions, 349 yards, and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’s going to be seeing a whole lot of Marshon Lattimore in coverage this week, the Saints top cornerback. Since getting roasted by Mike Evans in Week 1, Lattimore has allowed just 29-of-46 passing for 397 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. It’s by far the toughest matchup on the field, so expectations need to be dialed back for this game. The Cowboys are likely to have issues running the ball, so we should still see Cooper be targeted six-plus times, but he’s nothing more than a high-end WR3 for this matchup. The Cowboys should move him into the slot to evade Lattimore’s coverage, but he’s only played in the slot on 16 percent of his snaps with the Cowboys.

Michael Gallup: It’s impossible to trust Gallup this week, as he’s coming off two games with less than 20 yards, and that’s despite 11 targets in the two games. The Cowboys could decide to bring Allen Hurns back into the starting lineup if his struggles persist. He’ll see a lot of Eli Apple, who is coming off a game against the Falcons where he allowed 10-of-12 passing for 109 yards in his coverage. He’s someone who can be exposed, but Gallup’s recent struggles make him a DFS tournament play only.

Cole Beasley: The way to move the ball against the Saints is via the pass-attack, and the weakest link in their secondary is likely P.J. Williams, who will match-up with Beasley. He’s allowed 43-of-60 passing for 593 yards and six touchdowns this year, good enough for a 129.4 QB Rating in his coverage. With Gallup struggling and Cooper’s matchup with Lattimore, you should see increased volume for Beasley in this game. Prior to his two-target game against the Redskins, Beasley had seen 12 targets in the previous two games, so we don’t want to overreact to one bad week of targets. He should be considered a high-floor WR5 in Week 13 and one who might post 10-plus PPR points.

TEs
Ben Watson and Dan Arnold: Over the last five weeks, the Saints tight end position has gone to a “no-fly zone” for fantasy players. Here’s their snap counts in those games: Josh Hill 209, Watson 115, Arnold 78. The crazy part is that Arnold may be the tight end to play moving forward, as he’s seen 11 targets over the last three games totaling 95 yards and a touchdown, while Watson has seen just four targets for 21 scoreless yards. The Cowboys have struggled against tight ends since their bye week, allowing 2/33/1 to Jonnu Smith, 14/145/2 to Zach Ertz, and then 8/148/1 to the combination of Jordan Reed/Vernon Davis last week. It’s obviously far from a guaranteed production out of any of these tight ends, but knowing Arnold’s been targeted recently, he’s the preferred option and makes for a middling TE2 against the Cowboys.

Blake Jarwin: Some will see that Dalton Schultz played more snaps than Jarwin and believe he’s the one to play, but Jarwin ran 24 routes to just 10 for Schultz. Here’s the issue, though. The Saints have been lights out against tight ends this year, allowing just 3.6 receptions, 36.5 yards, and 0.1 touchdowns per game to tight ends, and that includes matchups with Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and O.J. Howard. They’ve still yet to allow more than 54 yards in a game to any one tight end, so feel free to ignore the Cowboys tight end timeshare.

Zach Ertz: You don’t like seeing Ertz lose targets to the inefficient Golden Tate, but his 11 targets over the last two weeks is the lowest in a two-game span this year for him. The Redskins have had D.J. Swearinger essentially removing tight ends, as he’s allowed just 21-of-34 passing for 251 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. Prior to saying anything else, we need to keep in mind the tight ends he’s had to cover. Ertz is a different kind of matchup, though, and is the outlier on many lists. You’ll have a team who completely shuts down tight ends, but then plays Ertz, allows 100-plus yards and a touchdown, yet you can’t take anything from that because he’s a different breed of tight end and more of a wide receiver in this offense. Ertz should always be played as a high-end TE1, almost regardless of matchup.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.