Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

Total: 45.0
Line: HOU by 5.0

QBs
Baker Mayfield: Let’s take a look at Mayfield’s season with and without Hue Jackson, shall we.

While it’s a small sample size, it’s definitely notable. The Texans are going to be his toughest matchup in a while, as they bring a pass-rush that his offensive line isn’t really built to withstand. They just allowed Marcus Mariota to complete 21-of-22 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns, but that hasn’t been the story all year. They’ve allowed just 7.03 yards per attempt, which ranks as the sixth-lowest mark in the league, and the 4.35 percent touchdown-rate is the 11th-lowest mark. But the fact that they don’t allow much on the ground should mean they’ll lean on him to move the ball. Quarterbacks do average a respectable 35.5 attempts per game against them. Mayfield isn’t a low-end QB1 like he’s been the last few weeks, but he should be able to remain in the middling QB2 conversation in this matchup.

Deshaun Watson: You’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time Watson threw the ball more than 25 times. Oddly enough, he’s thrown the ball exactly 24 times in four of the last five games. Fortunately for him, he’s running the ball again, as he’s racked-up 115 yards and a touchdown over his last three games. The Browns are a team who allows their opponents a sky-high 71.8 plays per game, which ranks as the most in the NFL. Because of that, quarterbacks have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game. Not to say that Watson will reach those levels, but he should throw the ball a bit more in this game. Most don’t realize that the Browns have allowed just a 3.90 percent touchdown-rate, which ranks second to only the Ravens. They’ve also held quarterbacks to a 62.0 percent completion rate, which is why the volume has been necessary. But the injuries have started to pile up on their defense, as they’ve lost linebacker Christian Kirksey and cornerback E.J. Gaines the last month, and have now allowed five straight top-16 performances to quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed 158 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to quarterbacks, so feel free to plug-in Watson as a rock-solid QB1 this week.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: It’s now been five straight games where Chubb has totaled at least 18 carries, but will it continue against the Texans who have allowed just 3.44 yards per carry on the season? There have been three running backs who’ve hit that mark against them, though none of them topped 64 yards or scored. On the year, there hasn’t been a running back who’s been able to eclipse 82 yards on the ground against the Texans, though they have allowed four rushing touchdowns in their last four games. Fellow power-back Adrian Peterson found the end zone twice against them just two weeks ago, though he totaled just 51 yards on 16 carries. This is not a great matchup for Chubb, though it’s nice to see him used in the passing-game the last few weeks, totaling six catches for 77 yards and a score. Because of that, you need to keep him in lineups as a high-end RB2 this week. As for Johnson, he’s continued to be an afterthought in the offense, totaling just 10 touches over the last two weeks combined. The Texans have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs, but the 4.99 yards per target they allow to them ranks as fourth-lowest in the league. Johnson would need to score in order to not bust, making him just an RB4 with minimal upside.

Lamar Miller: What in the world has gotten into Miller? After he totaled just 271 yards on 73 carries (3.71 yards per carry) with no touchdowns to start the season, he’s totaled 502 yards on 84 carries (5.98 yards per carry) with three touchdowns over the last five games. The only game he “busted” was against the Broncos who have shut down every running back they’ve played the last month and a half. The Browns have allowed a top-10 running back in three of their last four games, including two of them finishing as a top-three option. It helps that opponents average 23.1 carries per game against them, which ranks as the sixth-most in the league. The Browns have also allowed 1.99 PPR points per target to running backs, which is tied for the most in the league. With Keke Coutee likely out for a bit, we could see Miller’s pass-game usage increase. As odd as it sounds, Miller is a low-end RB1 this week and one you should trust.

WRs
Jarvis Landry: He now ranks seventh in targets (111) among wide receivers, but that’s not reflective of what he’s done lately. Since Freddie Kitchens took over, Landry has totaled just 17 targets in his last three games. There’re 42 other wide receivers who have more in their last three games, including Zay Jones, Dede Westbrook, and John Ross. While he’s not going to be completely forgotten, it’s good that the offense has been spread out. The Texans have Kareem Jackson in the slot and though he’s been a liability in the past, he’s been lights out in 2018, allowing just a 59.3 percent catch-rate, 12.0 yards per reception, and zero touchdowns on 54 targets. Did I mention he’s also intercepted two passes? Over his nine-year career, he’s allowed a rather high 95.8 QB Rating in his coverage, but with it being 65.7 this year, it’s tough to say Landry is a must-start. The only notable slot receiver he’s played since taking over there has been Emmanuel Sanders, but he held him to just 6/47/0 on nine targets. Landry is just a mediocre WR3 in fantasy leagues right now, but he’s too good to not produce with the way Mayfield’s been playing. Production will come, but this matchup isn’t a great one.

Antonio Callaway: His targets haven’t been crazy-high, but Callaway has started to connect with Mayfield over the last four games, as he’s caught 14-of-18 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns. He’s going to see a mix of Shareece Wright and Johnathan Joseph in coverage this week, two veterans who have played better than expected. Wright took over for Aaron Colvin, who had been out since Week 4, and though Colvin returned in Week 12, he played just nine snaps. There is likely some shuffling to be done and they are coming off a game in which they allowed Corey Davis 96 yards and a touchdown on just four targets. But you should know that they’ve allowed just 1.57 PPR points per target to receivers this year, which ranks as the fourth-best in the league. Callaway is trending in the right direction, but he’s just a WR5-type for this game.

DeAndre Hopkins: The Browns are likely to have Denzel Ward try to cover Hopkins, which should be a fun matchup to watch. Wide receivers average 24.1 targets per game against the Browns, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league and knowing that Keke Coutee is likely going to miss time, the targets should funnel to Hopkins. Ward has been very good as a rookie, but we cannot pretend that we haven’t watched Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Brown (twice), Julio Jones, and Mike Evans finish with 17.7 or more PPR points against the Browns this year. None of them were able to finish as a top-three option, but the floor for production is clearly there in this matchup. Hopkins should be locked into lineups as a WR1 and he should arguably be safe for cash lineups, too.

Demaryius Thomas: After catching three balls in the first quarter against the Broncos, Thomas went seven straight quarters without a catch. Then he pops up for two touchdowns last week? Fantasy, man. With Keke Coutee dealing with another hamstring injury, Thomas is going to be heavily utilized in the offense. As mentioned in the Hopkins notes, the Browns see an average of 24.1 wide receiver targets per week, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. While Denzel Ward will be tasked with covering Hopkins, Thomas will see a lot of T.J. Carrie, the cornerback who was supposed to play the slot for the Browns but has been forced to move outside with the injuries to E.J. Gaines and Terrance Mitchell. He’s been really good in coverage this year, allowing just 10.3 yards per reception and has yet to allow a touchdown on 61 targets in coverage, which is much different than the Titans cornerbacks he wrecked last week. Thomas should see five-plus targets though, which puts him on the WR4 radar.

TEs
David Njoku: The bye week came at the right time for Njoku, who was dealing with multiple injuries. He returned to rack up five catches for 63 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. He’s now seen five targets in two of the three games with Freddie Kitchens calling plays, so he’s not an afterthought like some said after his zero-target game in Week 8. The Texans have really struggled with tight ends this year, and especially as of late, as they’ve allowed touchdowns to them in three straight games. Jeff Heuerman, Jordan Reed, and Jonnu Smith all found the end zone against them. On the year, they’ve allowed a 76.3 percent catch rate (4th-highest), 9.3 yards per target (3rd-highest), and a touchdown every 13.3 targets (8th most often). Njoku is the clear-cut target with the best matchup in this game, so feel free to start him as a solid TE1.

Ryan Griffin: The Texans are going to be running a lot of multi-tight end sets moving forward, as they don’t really have a third wide receiver if Coutee is out. That’s why we saw Griffin play 43 snaps, Jordan Thomas play 33 snaps, and Jordan Akins play 25 snaps in the win over the Titans. Griffin is the primary pass-catcher running the most routes, while he also saw the most targets (4) last week. The Browns have been a very giving team to tight ends, too, as they’ve allowed five different tight ends finish as top-10 options against them, including three of the last five. What it really comes down to is volume, as they’ve faced a league-high 107 targets and allowed a league-high 70 receptions to them. Knowing that it’s a timeshare takes some appeal away, but we could see Griffin wind-up with five-plus targets in this game, making him a semi-decent high-end TE2.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Total: 55.5
Line: KC by 15.0

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Return from your bye week to a matchup with the Raiders? Whew. The downside is that just 1-of-9 quarterbacks has had to throw the ball more than 31 times against the Raiders since the start of Week 3. Over the last four weeks, no quarterback has topped 26 attempts. Quarterbacks have scored in-between 13.4 and 26.2 points against them this year. No more, no less. Efficiency has always been something we get from Mahomes, so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but this is more about the upside he presents for DFS purposes. Due to the limited attempts, just one quarterback has thrown for 300 yards against them. The 7.84 percent touchdown-rate is the highest in the NFL by half a percent (closest is 7.34), so it’s possible Mahomes throws the ball 25 times, but winds up with 280 yards and four touchdowns. You’re playing him as a QB1 every single week, though his attempts/yardage may be a tad suppressed in this game. He’s thrown for 300-plus yards in 9-of-11 games this year, so I suppose it’s “fade him in DFS at your own discretion.”

Derek Carr: He’s thrown for less than 250 yards in six straight games, has one or less touchdowns in 8-of-11 games, and hasn’t topped 6.6 yards per attempt since Week 9. Do you want to play Carr? The reason the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points is pure volume, as they’ve faced a league-high 42.5 attempts per game. From an efficiency standpoint, they’ve been solid while allowing just 7.5 yards per attempt and a 4.27 percent touchdown-rate. The only quarterbacks to finish as top-10 options against the Chiefs this year have been Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. Carr is nowhere near that conversation and even if he throws the ball 40-plus times, who’s he throwing to? He’s not on the streaming radar this week.

RBs
Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware: It’s odd, but Hunt has just one 100-yard game on the ground this year. He’s topped 19 carries just once but has tallied at least 14 carries in all but one game. Something tells me he’ll get a lot of work against the Raiders, who face 26.2 carries per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. They’ve also allowed a league-high 134.6 rushing yards per game. Ever since their bye in Week 7, they’ve allowed at least one running back to rack-up 86 yards on the ground, including three running backs to total 118 or more rushing yards. There have been just two teams of running backs who’ve averaged less than 4.24 yards per carry against the Raiders this year, which says a lot. Hunt is locked and loaded as a high-end RB1 this week and could finish as the top play at the position. If you’re looking for a desperation start at running back, Ware could even flirt with eight-plus touches in this game, giving him RB4 appeal. Update: In case you’ve missed the news, Kareem Hunt has been released by the Chiefs after a video surfaced of him assaulting a woman. This leaves Ware in the driver’s seat of the offense moving forward, and as we discussed above, the Raiders run-defense has continually gotten worse. Meanwhile, Ware has fresh legs and is gearing up towards free agency this offseason. He should be played as a rock-solid RB1 this week and one who should be placed in every cash lineup. Damien Williams is the running back behind Ware on the depth chart, and he’s someone who’ll play some passing downs, but he shouldn’t be much of a threat to the workload of Ware moving forward. 

Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: The Raiders didn’t have a rushing touchdown since Week 3, so it’s only natural Martin would score against the Ravens, right? You have to laugh sometimes. The Chiefs have been a defense to target for running backs, as they’ve allowed 14 different running backs post top-24 numbers against them. They’ve played just 11 games. They’ve allowed just one running back to top 100 yards on the ground, but they’ve allowed 10 running backs to amass at least 30 yards through the air, including 50 yards or more to six of them. Of the 11 running backs who’ve totaled at least 10 carries against them (Martin has at least 10 in each of the last five games), the worst finish was the RB32 with 8-of-10 finishing as top-24 options. Martin is a high-end RB3 in this game and it shouldn’t shock you if he posts top-24 numbers. Richard has seen just four targets in each of the last two games, which is a bit concerning, but he needs to be involved when the Chiefs have allowed a league-high 191.2 PPR points through the air to running backs. Richard should be considered a low-end RB3/high-end RB4 who has some upside in PPR formats.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: With Sammy Watkins out the last two games, Hill has seen 24 targets, his highest two-game output on the season. He’s also turned those targets into 332 yards and four touchdowns. The Raiders have allowed just a 58.4 percent completion-rate to wide receivers (ranks 3rd-best in NFL), but have allowed 14.4 yards per reception, which ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league. Hill’s slot usage has also gone way up without Watkins, as 51.7 percent of his routes have been run from there. The Raiders have had rookie Nick Nelson covering the slot, a cornerback who runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. In fact, the Raiders don’t have a cornerback who comes close to Hill’s speed and it’s likely the reason they’ve allowed 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards, which is the most in the NFL. Hill should be started as a rockstar WR1 who comes with a much higher floor if Watkins is held out, which seems likely.

Chris Conley: It appears that Sammy Watkins is going to miss more time with his foot injury, which means more snaps for Conley. He’s played 90 percent of the snaps with Watkins out, while playing just 50-70 percent with him active. Conley plays in the slot about 30 percent of the time, so he’s going to see a mixture of cornerbacks in this game and not just one in particular. The Raiders secondary has allowed just 145.5 yards per game to wide receivers, which ranks as the eighth-fewest, so you’re likely looking for a touchdown. They’ve allowed 16 of those, which ranks as the fifth-most, as they’ve allowed a touchdown every 11.9 targets to wide receivers. If Watkins is held out (he is), Conley should be considered a high-end WR4 this week who’s somewhat touchdown-dependent.

Jordy Nelson/Marcell Ateman/Seth Roberts: I really don’t want to bunch players together, but this receiving corps is not worth writing up three separate paragraphs. Nelson hasn’t topped 16 yards since Week 5. Ateman has seen 15 targets over the last two weeks… but has just 66 yards. Roberts is probably the most appealing, but he’s yet to top 54 yards this year and has the toughest matchup of the group. The Chiefs may have struggled against the Rams receivers (who doesn’t), but coming into that game, they’d allowed the fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers. Even after that explosion, they’ve allowed the second-fewest. The catch-rate against them is just 57.3 percent and they’ve allowed a touchdown once every 30.4 targets. None of them offer a great enough reward to take the risk.

TEs
Travis Kelce: There’s been just two games this year where Kelce has totaled less than five catches and 61 yards. Those matchups were both against top-12 defenses against tight ends. This matchup is the opposite of that. The Raiders are by far the worst team in the league against tight ends, despite allowing the seventh-most points. They’ve allowed 11.68 yards per target, while no other team has allowed more than 9.62 yards. They’ve allowed a 78.0 percent catch-rate, while no other team has allowed more than 77.0 percent.  They’ve allowed 15.0 yards per reception, while no other team allows more than 13.9 yards. And lastly, they allow a touchdown every 9.8 targets. Whew. Kelce is an elite TE1 and one who’s worth his cost of admission.

Jared Cook: This matchup sets up well for Cook, who has accounted for 115 yards and two touchdowns of Carr’s 629 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs have struggled to defend tight ends, as they’ve allowed the third-most points to the position and it’s not all due to volume, either, as they’ve allowed just over nine yards per target to them. They’ve allowed an average of 73.8 yards per game to tight ends, which ranks as the second-most behind only the Buccaneers. When looking at the potential gamescript, it’s easy to see Carr total 40-plus attempts in this game and knowing Cook has seen an 18.2 percent target share, we could see an eight-plus target game. He’s in the middle of the TE1 conversation this week.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Total: 40.5
Line: TEN by 10.0

QBs
Josh McCown: The Titans just allowed two receiving touchdowns to Demaryius Thomas after he was held without a catch for seven quarters in the previous two weeks, so you don’t want to automatically cross anyone off your list against them, but it’s not good when McCown and the Jets are projected for just over 15 points in this game. The Titans hadn’t allowed a quarterback to score more than 22.8 fantasy points or finish better than the QB9 all season until the last two weeks where they’ve allowed top-five performances to both Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson in divisional games. The last time the Titans were at home, they held Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 10 points, so it’s possible they just ran into two hot quarterbacks on the road at the wrong time. The lack of run-game for the Jets will likely lead to more pass attempts, but the Titans are a very slow-paced team whose opponents average just 61.4 plays per game while they average just 59.5 plays themselves. Knowing the Titans have allowed multiple touchdowns in 7-of-11 games makes McCown viable in 2QB leagues, but he’s not a streamer in standard leagues.

Marcus Mariota: Welcome to the rollercoaster that is Mariota. He’s completed 93-of-121 passes (76.9 percent) the last five weeks, so it appears that Matt LaFleur has learned how to best utilize Mariota in his offense. The Jets haven’t been a defense to attack with quarterbacks, though, as they’ve allowed just a 62.3 percent completion-rate and 7.3 yards per attempt through 11 games. They have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven of their last eight games, though. Part of the reason for that is due to the 35.7 pass attempts per game against them, as their opponents average 66.9 plays per game. The issue with expecting Mariota to hit big numbers is because they run just 59.5 plays per game and he hasn’t thrown more than 32 pass attempts since Week 4. The Jets haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season and have allowed just 155 yards on the ground, so it’s not even as if we can rely on massive ground totals. Mariota isn’t in a brutal matchup, but he’s also not in a great one, making him a middling to low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire: The Titans have started to show signs of weakness the last two weeks, allowing 316 yards and three touchdowns to the combination of Colts and Texans running backs. You don’t want to erase a whole season of dominating run-defense over two bad weeks, but we have to pay attention. They haven’t had any injuries that would’ve affected the games, so it could be just poor execution. The Jets run-game hasn’t been anything to gameplan against, as Crowell has totaled less than 50 rushing yards in each of his last six games. He was curiously more involved in the passing-game last week, but the Titans have allowed just 4.92 yards per target to running backs, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. I don’t believe the Titans are as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks, which makes Crowell nothing more than a middling RB3 who needs to find the end zone. Meanwhile, the Jets didn’t involved McGuire very heavily coming out of the bye week, so it’s clear he’s stuck in his 7-10 touch per week role. Knowing the efficiency against the Titans has been terrible (particularly through the air), McGuire is just a low-end RB4.

Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: After another weak performance from Lewis, you figured we’d see a lot of Henry this week, but after he fumbled at the end of the game, you now have to question how they’ll handle the backfield. The Jets have been a great matchup for running backs, especially as of late, as they’ve allowed back-to-back 200-yard rushing games to the Bills and Patriots. It’s worth noting that each team had 35-plus carries, but you can run the ball against them if you want to. The Titans offensive line has been a mess this year, but if there was a game to get the run-game going, it’s this one. There has been at least one top-24 running back in eight of the last 10 games against the Jets, so you kind of have to place your bets here. Henry’s fumble adds some risk, but he should lead this team in carries this week. He should be considered a high-end RB3, while Lewis is a bit riskier. His carries have declined in two straight weeks and this isn’t a game where the Titans won’t need to throw the ball a ton, so he’s just a low-end RB3 with his play as of late.

WRs
Robby Anderson: The Jets said Anderson would be eased back in last week, but he played his usual 75 percent of the snaps, so he’s apparently okay for the matchup against the Titans. Not that it would be much of an upgrade, but Malcolm Butler suffered a concussion in the Monday night game, making him very questionable for this game. That would put LeShaun Sims in the starting lineup, a cornerback who’s allowed five touchdowns on his last 54 targets in coverage, including one to Demaryius Thomas last week. Anderson would see Sims and Adoree Jackson, as it wouldn’t be a shadow situation. The Titans haven’t been continually beat deep or anything, so it would require Anderson to get it done on a consistent basis, something that’s been a problem this year, as he’s totaled more than three catches just once. Because of that, he’s just a middling WR4, but he comes with upside in a great matchup.

Quincy Enunwa/Jermaine Kearse: So much for using the bye week to get Enunwa back into the slot… He ran 40 percent of his routes there and saw two targets that netted two catches for 48 yards. Meanwhile, Kearse saw eight targets in the slot that netted 43 yards, though he did score a touchdown. On the year, Enunwa has averaged 1.86 yards per route from the slot, while Kearse is at 0.90 yards per route run, which ranks 55th of 60 receivers who’ve played 25-plus percent of snaps from the slot. This week, however, it may benefit Enunwa to be on the perimeter, as LeShaun Sims/Malcolm Butler/Adoree Jackson have been worse than Logan Ryan, the Titans slot cornerback. The trio of Jackson/Butler/Sims has allowed 13 touchdowns on 143 targets, while Ryan has allowed just one on 35 targets in coverage. Enunwa could be a sneaky WR4/5-type play this week while Kearse should be off your radar.

Corey Davis: He’s a slave to the play of Mariota right now and it’s reminiscent of Amari Cooper while with the Raiders. He’s now seen just four targets in each of the last two games, but he made them count last week, piling up 96 yards and a touchdown. His 23.5 PPR points were the most allowed by the Texans all season. The Jets don’t have anyone shadow opposing No. 1 receivers but have a pretty decent duo in Trumaine Johnson and Morris Claiborne. They’ve combined to allow 52-of-92 passing (56.5 percent) for 789 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. Davis is the most talented player of the bunch and can win either of those matchups, though we always have to worry about the play of Mariota. Davis has proven to be somewhat matchup-proof in two tough matchups over the last three weeks but can’t be played as anything more than a high-end WR3 with the inconsistencies in the offense.

Tajae Sharpe: He wasn’t targeted last week and appeared to suffer an ankle injury early in the game, though he did return. We want to pay attention to his practice status throughout the week, because the Jets have continually been demolished against slot receivers. Here’s the chart I posted last week, and I’ll continue to do each week, explaining why Sharpe may be a sneak play, though his health is important.

TEs
Chris Herndon: He’s become a player you can actually rely on most weeks, as he’s totaled at least 34 yards in five of the last six games, including 56 or more in three of them. He’s totaled 16 targets over the last three games, including a career-high eight targets from McCown in Week 12. The issue with streaming him this week, however, is that the Titans have been the best in the league at defending the tight end position. They’re the only team who’s still yet to allow a touchdown to them, and not just that, as they’ve allowed just 35.5 yards per game to the position, which ranks as the fourth-lowest in the league. Knowing they’re allowing just 1.27 PPR points per target to tight ends, Herndon is going to have a hard time finding his way into top-12 numbers this week. He’s just a middling TE2 in a brutal matchup against a team who’s allowed just one tight end more than 43 yards (Zach Ertz).

Jonnu Smith: He’s now totaled at least 33 yards in each of his last four games and has scored a touchdown in three of them. All this from a guy who totaled just 44 yards over the first seven games. It’s clear that the Titans have made him more of a priority during their bye week, as that’s when all his production started. He’s no lock for production, though, as he’s still seen more than three targets just once. On top of that, Jamal Adams awaits in coverage. While Rob Gronkowski scored a touchdown last week, he was limited to just three catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. That touchdown, by the way, wouldn’t have been caught by 90 percent of tight ends. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest yards (365) to tight ends this year while allowing just a 55.8 percent completion-rate. With Smith’s limited opportunity, it’s not a week to trust him as a streamer.

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots

Total: 48.5
Line: NE by 6.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: Don’t think that just because the Vikings struggled to score more than 24 points the last four games that they’re not capable of it. The Patriots defense has been very hit-or-miss this season despite having one of the easier schedules. In games against Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, Aaron Rodgers, and Marcus Mariota, they allowed a top-14 quarterback performance. Against Deshaun Watson (back in Week 1), Brock Osweiler, Derek Anderson, and Josh McCown, they haven’t. You tell me which group Cousins is a part of. Four quarterbacks have been able to post 330-plus yards and three have thrown three-plus touchdowns. Cousins hasn’t delivered the upside that some would’ve expected this year, but with Diggs, Thielen, and Cook healthy, he’s in solid QB1 territory this week.

Tom Brady: He always seems to show up in the big moments, and this is one of them. The Vikings are playing for the playoffs while the Patriots try and get their passing-game back on track. Outside of the Week 4 game against the Rams where they traveled across the country for a Thursday game, the Vikings defense has been phenomenal, allowing just nine passing touchdowns in the other 10 games. Even including that game against the Rams, they’ve allowed just 14 touchdowns on the year, which is the best in the NFL. They do play better at home in Minnesota, but it’s clear that this defense poses a problem for opposing quarterbacks, as no quarterback has finished better than the QB16 against them since Week 5. Again, this is Brady at home in a statement game, so you don’t want to doubt him, and it seems likely that the Vikings will be without their top cornerback Xavier Rhodes. While Brady isn’t likely to finish as a top-five option this week, he’s in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: To those who said that Cook/Murray wouldn’t be sharing carries, you were wrong. Since returning to the lineup, Cook has totaled 29 attempts and 10 targets, while Murray has totaled 25 attempts and one target. Cook is the leader of a 60/40 timeshare, but it’s definitely a timeshare. The Patriots are a matchup that favors Cook’s role, though, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most PPR points through the air to running backs, while allowing just four rushing touchdowns all season. Prior to shutting down the Jets run-game last week, the Patriots had allowed 239 yards and two touchdowns to the Packers and Titans running backs, so it’s not as if they don’t allow production on the ground. They’re going to have their hands full with Diggs and Thielen, which should open the doors for Cook. Consider him a solid RB2 this week who needs to be used in a bigger role than Murray this week. As for Murray, he’s just a touchdown-dependent RB4 this week in a matchup against a team who’s allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year.

Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: We were comfortable with the timeshare between Michel and White, but now we’re adding Burkhead to the mix. It seems that Michel is locked into the “Blount role” of the past, as he’s averaged 18.8 carries per game in the six full games he’s played. Despite missing three full games and portions of others, he leads the team with 27 red zone carries, while nobody else has more than 16. The Vikings are not a matchup you circle on the calendar and look forward to, as they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season, but the Patriots are a team who’s constantly in scoring position and have eight rushing touchdowns over their last six games. They have allowed 7.05 yards per target to running backs, which ranks as the 11th-most, so that would seem to favor White who’s seen at least five targets in all but one game this year. In fact, he’s got more targets than all but 11 wide receivers. The Patriots are likely to use their short passing game to consistently move the ball, while mixing in Michel from time-to-time. The bad part is that there’s been just one team of running backs who’s scored more than 25 PPR points against the Vikings, and that was the Saints duo of Kamara/Ingram who scored 38.8 points. Because of that, it’s a risky proposition to rely on Michel as anything more than a middling RB2, while White should be played as a high-end RB2 in PPR formats. As for Burkhead, it’d be wise to give him a week on your bench to see how he’s used, but he’ll be slotted in as an RB4 in the rankings.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: The Patriots are likely to stick Stephon Gilmore on Diggs, which isn’t terrible because it would mean consistent one-on-one coverage for him. Against zone coverage, Diggs has a 77.8 WR Rating. Against man coverage, Diggs has posted a 115.9 WR Rating. The Patriots have Gilmore in man coverage 85 percent of the time. If Diggs can get off the press against Gilmore, he’s going to beat him. It’ll be curious to see how they handle the Thielen/Diggs duo, as the Patriots try to remove the No. 1 option for opponents, but it’s tougher to do that with slot receivers. Diggs should be considered a middling WR2 who does have a tough matchup, but he also dominates man coverage. Update: Diggs missed two practices this week with a knee injury but has said he’ll play. It’s additional risk in a matchup that’s tough enough, so keep him away from cash lineups this week. 

Adam Thielen: Bill Belichick was raving about Thielen in an interview this week, so you know he respects him as a receiver, but the question is – who gets the No. 1 treatment among the Vikings receivers? Belichick’s defense has made a name for itself taking away the opposing No. 1 option, but it’s tough to do that with a slot receiver. The Patriots have really struggled with that position this year, as Jonathan Jones has struggled to contain them. He’s allowed a 101.0 QB Rating in his coverage, which includes a 68.4 percent catch-rate, 11.6 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 14.3 targets. Just last week, we saw Jermaine Kearse total 6/66/1 on 11 targets. There’s risk that Belichick doubles him and trusts Gilmore one-on-one with Diggs all game, but Thielen’s matchup is too good on paper to pass him by. He should be played as a WR1 in this matchup.

Josh Gordon: Seeing Xavier Rhodes go down with a hamstring injury during their Sunday night game likely means he’s a no-go for them this weekend. That would mean Trae Waynes and rookie Holton Hill will match-up with Gordon. Waynes hasn’t been terrible, but he also hasn’t been great. Keep in mind that he’s covered a lot of No. 2 receivers when hearing his coverage stats, because they probably should be better than they are. He’s allowed a 72.1 percent catch-rate, 12.1 yards per reception, and two touchdowns on 43 targets this year, which amounts to a 104.3 QB Rating. Meanwhile, Hill is someone I like a lot as a prospect, but he’s still a rookie trying to guard one of the biggest physical freaks in football. He’s also played just 143 snaps this year in a backup role. Gordon should be played as a strong WR2 if Rhodes is out.

Julian Edelman: It appeared like Edelman had no ill-effects from his ankle injury he suffered in Week 10, as he totaled 4/84/1 on just five targets against the Jets. With all the pass-catchers healthy, he may not be locked into eight targets anymore, and his matchup against Mackensie Alexander isn’t anything that makes you gravitate towards him. Alexander’s a third-year player who has manned the slot for the Vikings the last two years and he’s yet to allow a touchdown on 90 targets in coverage. He’s allowed a 73.2 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, but it’s been for just 10.7 yards per target. The team who had the most success against him this year was oddly the Cardinals as Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald combined for nine catches for 89 yards on 12 slot targets. Edelman should be considered a low-end WR2 who comes with a solid floor.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: We saw him come alive last week for the first time in a while, posting seven catches for 63 yards against the Packers. It was the firs time he’d cracked 41 yards since Week 4, which is far from ideal, but the matchup with the Patriots could allow him to be relevant once again. They’ve allowed eight different tight ends finish as top-15 options against them, including three in a row to finish top-10. Those tight ends were: Jimmy Graham, Jonnu Smith, and Chris Herndon. Not exactly world-beaters in the fantasy world this year. Tight ends average 8.5 targets per game against them (second-most in NFL), with 18 red zone targets on the year (2nd-most), while scoring seven touchdowns (third-most). One of Diggs/Thielen will get double-teamed, meaning Rudolph is likely to get matched-up with linebackers quite a bit. He hasn’t been much of a constant in the offense this year, but he’s got low-end TE1 appeal in this matchup.

Rob Gronkowski: It was good to see Gronkowski out there getting the dust knocked off because that’s what Jamal Adams does. Brady targeted Gronkowski in the end zone multiple times like he never left the offense. Oddly enough, he saw three red zone targets but none of them were the touchdown he snagged. The Vikings have allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends this year, but that hasn’t stopped five different tight ends from posting 11.9 or more PPR points against them. It’s no coincidence, but if you’ve seen more than four targets against them, you’ve finished as a top-13 tight end. There’s been just five tight ends who’ve hit that number. Knowing Gronkowski has seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games, he should be safe to play. There’re not many tight ends who you should start over Gronkowski any given week, and this matchup shouldn’t scare you off him.