Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Total: 40.5
Line: MIA by 5.0

QBs
Josh Allen: After a 26-point fantasy performance against the Jaguars, some will be wondering whether Allen should be considered against the Dolphins, though it’s somewhat of a risky proposition. He’s failed to throw for more than 196 yards since his first start way back in Week 2. He’s failed to throw even one touchdown in three of his six starts, and he’s never thrown more than one touchdown. There’s been two games this year where he’s scored more than 13 fantasy points, and in each game, he scored 15.9 points with his legs. The Dolphins biggest weakness has come through the air, as they’ve allowed six different quarterbacks finish as top-16 options, and each of them threw multiple touchdown passes. They did play against Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky, who combined to run for 61 yards. Overall, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks and they’ve still yet to allow a rushing touchdown to them. Allen is nothing more than a low-end QB2 despite his rushing prowess.

Ryan Tannehill: He played very well against the Colts last week, but the test will be a lot tougher this week, as the Bills defense has still yet to allow a quarterback score 23 points against them. In fact, just one quarterback has finished top-18 against them since Week 2, and that was Andrew Luck, who threw for just 156 yards but had four touchdowns. Including that game against Luck, the Bills have allowed just nine passing touchdowns in their last nine games and Tom Brady was the only one who eclipsed 300 yards through the air against them. They’ve held each of the last three quarterbacks (Trubisky, McCown, Bortles) to 135 yards or less through the air, and they also held Trubisky and Bortles to a combined 34 yards on the ground. This is not a matchup that says Tannehill should be started, as he’s not even a great play in 2QB leagues.

RBs
LeSean McCoy: It’s odd because running backs who play with mobile quarterbacks typically do better, but it hasn’t been the case with McCoy and Allen. It’s been a nightmare season for McCoy who is averaging 42.6 rushing yards per game while Allen has averaged 36.3 yards per game on the ground. Both have two rushing touchdowns, while Allen has played three fewer games. The Dolphins present an opportunity, though, as they’ve really struggled against the run. They’ve allowed ten different running backs finish as top-16 options against them, including Lamar Miller, Marshawn Lynch, Bilal Powell, and Dion Lewis, who are running backs who’ve had much less success outside of those games. Running backs average 25.2 carries per game against them as well as 5.6 receptions, which amounts to 30.8 touches per game. They’ve also allowed 4.84 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per target on those touches, so efficiency has been great, too. If there’s a week to trust McCoy as an RB2, this is it. His team is on the road as an underdog that’s projected to score just over 17 points, so don’t go thinking he’s going to go bananas, but this is a great matchup.

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: It appears that Drake will be good to go this weekend, despite having to leave the game late last week with a shoulder injury. Knowing that he’s totaled just 30 touches over the last three weeks, this won’t help him get more touches against a beatable Bills run defense. They’ve now allowed seven rushing touchdowns in their last five games, with at least one in every game. There have been 10 different running backs to score a rushing touchdown against them this year. Meanwhile, Gore is still seeking his first rushing touchdown of the year, but given his share of the carries, he’s bound to fall into one at some point. He’s now totaled at least 53 rushing yards in each of his last four games and six of the last seven games, so he’s offering a solid floor. At home as a five-point favorite against a team who defends the pass very well? Gore can be started as a solid RB3 who might score his first touchdown. Drake is a bit riskier, as he could be somewhat limited, but offers more upside. He’s a risk/reward RB3, but if he gets in a full practice by the end of the week (he was limited each day), he’s be in the high-end of that conversation.

WRs
Kelvin Benjamin: He’ll draw Xavien Howard in coverage most of the day, meaning he’ll be less efficient than he usually is, which has been 5.8 yards per target and one touchdown on 58 targets. He’s topped 45 yards just once all season and it was without Allen under center. He also seems to have fallen behind both Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie on the depth chart. He belongs on waiver wires.

Zay Jones: He played more snaps than any other wide receiver (wasn’t even close) but saw just one target against the Jaguars last week. It was disappointing considering he’d seen 38 targets over his previous five games and started to produce. The Bills aren’t going to throw as much with Allen under center, as he’s yet to throw more than 33 passes in a game, and wide receivers have combined to average just 17.8 targets per game against the Dolphins. With Minkah Fitzpatrick back in the slot, you’re okay simply fading Jones all together.

DeVante Parker: After a three-target, three-catch, 10-yard game, there won’t be many fantasy owners looking to start Parker in this game. Fortunately, you don’t even have to consider him against the Bills, as he’ll match-up with Tre’Davious White this week. The Bills have allowed just eight top-30 performances to wide receivers this year and five of them were slot-heavy receivers (Parker is not). The three receivers who did accomplish that feat were T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams. Don’t put Parker into your lineup this week and expect miracles. He’s just a weak WR5 option who was limited in practice all week.

Kenny Stills: The good news? Stills saw more targets than he had since way back in Week 5. The bad news is that it was still just four targets. He hasn’t topped two catches or 35 yards since way back in Week 4, which gives you no confidence when thinking about playing him. With Tre’Davious White likely locked onto Parker, we could see the Dolphins target Stills a bit more against Levi Wallace, an undrafted rookie cornerback who’s replaced Philip Gaines (who was cut) as the starter. In two games, he’s only been targeted four times, allowing one catch for 29 yards. Keep in mind that those numbers were against the Jets and Jaguars, two passing games that lack potency. Not that the Dolphins do, but you get my point that he’s untested in coverage. Stills may snag the rare deep-ball but he’s far too much risk for reward, though playing with Tannehill gives him more appeal. The Bills have allowed a league-low 1,357 yards to wide receivers this year.

TEs
Jason Croom: Knowing that Charles Clay failed to practice at all last week, it’s fair to say that he’s questionable at best for this game. Croom is splitting time with Logan Thomas, but Croom was the one targeted three times last week. The Dolphins have been a matchup to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed eight tight end touchdowns in their last six games, but let’s be real – you aren’t relying on a backup Bills tight end who has seen more than three targets twice all season the week before the fantasy playoffs begin.

Mike Gesicki: Can we be clear about something right now? The Dolphins have zero clue how to use the tight end they spent a high second-round pick on. None. Zero. Zilch. They played him on just 29.4 percent of snaps in Week 10 and then bumped him up to 69.8 percent of the snaps in Week 12. He was targeted 15 times from Week 5-8 but has seen just one target in each game since then. His average depth of target is 8.4 yards down the field. A guy who broke all sorts of records for athleticism at the NFL Combine isn’t being utilized down the field one bit. He’s seen three targets of 20-plus yards, which ranks 25th among tight ends, behind guys like Ryan Griffin and Charles Clay. You aren’t playing him in this matchup, as the Bills have been really good against tight ends, but I just wanted to rant.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 49.0
Line: BAL by 2.5

QBs
Lamar Jackson: I’m on the record as saying the Ravens will play Jackson until he loses and play-up Flacco’s injury until that point. The offense is dramatically different with the two and you cannot flip-flop between them, as you need to have a gameplan for the week. Jackson is the starter against the Falcons, who have suddenly become a tougher matchup for quarterbacks. After allowing 2,112 yards on 243 attempts (8.69 yards per attempt) from Week 2 through Week 7 while they learned life without their two top players on defense, they’ve allowed just 901 yards on 120 attempts (7.51 yards per attempt) over the last four games. They have allowed eight passing scores in those four games, but keep in mind they played two of the hottest quarterbacks in football. The Falcons have allowed some big performances to mobile quarterbacks this year, as they allowed Cam Newton 335/3 through the air and 42 yards on the ground, and then allowed Jameis Winston 395/4 through the air and 31 yards on the ground. Jackson doesn’t look like he’s going to be a threat through the air this year, as his passing was Bortles-esque last week. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, and they’ve also allowed plenty of running back production in the passing game, which should give Jackson some high-percentage throws in this game. He’s not someone you should expect top-three production from, but he should deliver solid high-end QB2 numbers, at worst.

Matt Ryan: He’s now thrown for at least 330 yards in seven of his last nine games, but his touchdowns have dipped, throwing for more than two touchdowns in just one of his last five games. With the Ravens coming to town, that’s a problem. They’ve allowed just 220.8 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, while allowing just 15 passing touchdowns through 11 games. They’ve allowed a league-low 57.9 percent completion-rate, a league-low 6.20 yards per attempt, and a league-low 3.83 percent touchdown rate. Is that good? Outside of a Thursday night road game against the Bengals, there’s been no quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns against them. The good news is that they’ve allowed two passing scores in four of their last five games, with the lone exception being Derek Carr last week, who threw one. With the run-game struggling to do much of anything the last few weeks, Ryan is likely to drop back and pass 35-plus times which puts him in the high-end QB2 range, but he’s not someone you absolutely need to start in Week 13.

RBs
Gus Edwards and Alex Collins: Edwards now has 233 yards and a touchdown on 40 attempts over the last two weeks, so it’s clear that he’s the workhorse running back on first and second-down. He didn’t record a target in either game, so gamescript can surely be a concern for him moving forward. It also helped that his opponents were the Bengals and Raiders, two of the bottom-five teams against the run. The Falcons haven’t been much better since their bye week, allowing 511 yards on 86 carries (5.94 yards per carry) with three touchdowns in four weeks. They did play three of the hottest running backs in football during that time (Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara), so it’s possible it’s just a bad time to judge that sample size. Where the Falcons have continually struggled through the last few years is against pass-catching running backs, as they’ve allowed a league-high 88 receptions for 695 yards and four touchdowns through the air. By comparison, the Saints have allowed just 554 yards and six touchdowns on the ground to running backs. We know Edwards isn’t going to be heavily utilized through the air, so he’s not to be used in cash games this week, as he can be gamescripted out if the Falcons jump out to a lead. In season-long leagues, he should be considered a low-end RB2, though it would be a slight ding to his projection if Collins practices and plays this week. As for Collins, you cannot play him as anything more than an emergency RB4. If you’re looking for a pass-catching running back against the Falcons, Ty Montgomery has played 37 snaps the last two weeks and has saw three targets from Jackson last week. Update: Both Collins (foot) and Edwards (ankle) missed some practice time this week and are listed as questionable, though expected to play. 

Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: The Falcons run-game hasn’t clicked the last three weeks, as Coleman and Smith have combined for 41 carries, 129 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 97 receiving yards, and one total touchdown over the last three weeks. The Ravens aren’t a team you should expect a turnaround against, as they’ve allowed just 3.50 yards per carry on the season, which is the third-best mark in the league. They’ve also allowed just 27.5 yards through the air to running backs, which ranks as the lowest in the league, and it’s not even due to lack of volume. The 4.15 yards per target is the best in the NFL, while the closest team is at 4.40 yards per target. They’ve allowed just two RB1 performances this season and they were to James Conner and Christian McCaffrey, two running backs who’ve crushed all season. Coleman is likely the best bet at a touchdown, but he’s nothing more than a high-end RB3 in this game. Smith has totaled just 21 yards on his last 14 carries and hasn’t scored since Week 9, making him an afterthought. He’s nothing more than a low-upside RB4/5 option.

WRs
John Brown: It was odd watching Brown last week, as he appeared to be playing with a lack of urgency, and though Jackson was off-target with many of his throws, Brown could’ve helped him out more than he did. He’s now caught just 2-of-8 targets from Jackson for 48 yards, making him an afterthought in fantasy leagues. The Falcons have been generous to wide receivers, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game, though the completion rate to receivers sits at 64.2 percent, which ranks as the 14th-highest mark. The Falcons don’t run shadow coverage, which means Brown will see a mix of Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. It’s been Alford who’s been burned most of the time, as he’s allowed 18.0 yards per reception in his coverage. Brown plays on his side just 30 percent of the time, while he’ll be on Trufant’s side 45 percent of the time. The turf in Atlanta should be a plus for Brown, but can Jackson get him the ball? He’s just a boom/bust WR4 option and not one you need to play if you have a safer option.

Michael Crabtree: He scored a touchdown last week, but he’s now totaled just 28 yards over the two games, so it’s far from comforting. The fact that Jackson has thrown for just 328 yards and one touchdown over the last two games doesn’t leave a lot of room for production among any player. Crabtree will match-up with Robert Alford most of the day, who has allowed a 68 percent catch-rate and 18.0 yards per reception with five touchdowns, so the matchup is drool-worthy, but just how confident can we be? He’s failed to top 32 yards since Week 7 and has scored three touchdowns all year. Despite the matchup, you shouldn’t be relying on anything more than WR4 numbers out of Crabtree.

Willie Snead: A week after he was unphased by Jackson under center (totaled eight targets, finished with 5/51/0 in Week 11), Snead didn’t see a single target against the Raiders. Just as we couldn’t take much from the small sample size in Week 11, we can’t take too much from the small sample size in Week 12. It’s clear that Snead isn’t an absolute favorite of Jackson, but will the matchup with Brian Poole re-kindle their connection? Poole has allowed a 70 percent catch-rate in the slot, including three touchdowns on 46 targets, but he hasn’t allowed one since back in Week 6. He’s played much better over the last five games, allowing 8-of-14 passing for just 62 scoreless yards. Snead shouldn’t be in lineups considering what happened last week. His reward (WR4/5 numbers) is just not great enough for the risk you’d be taking by starting him.

Julio Jones: The Ravens haven’t been very friendly to wide receivers this year, as they’ve allowed just one top-10 performance all year, and that was A.J. Green when he caught just five passes for 69 yards, but found the end zone three times. It’s impressive what they’ve done, as there have been nine wide receivers to see eight-plus targets against them this year (including Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster twice, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tyler Boyd), yet none of them have totaled more than 91 yards. Jones has totaled more than that in 9-of-11 games this season, so it should be an entertaining matchup. One positive is that Tavon Young was injured and out last game, which led Brandon Carr into the slot. That means Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith will man the perimeter, and though they’re solid, they’ve been beat in coverage before. Jones will see Smith in coverage the most, and he hasn’t been the same player in coverage this year. He’s allowed a 70 percent catch-rate and a 110.0 QB Rating when targeted, which is miles away from his career 77.6 rating in coverage. The overall numbers against the Ravens are scary, but you play Jones as a WR1 every single week. He’s not someone you should be chasing in DFS this week, though.

Calvin Ridley: Coming off a big game last week, Ridley will match-up with fellow Alabama alum Marlon Humphrey in coverage. He’s been the Ravens best cornerback on the year, holding opponents to just a 51.9 percent catch-rate with 9.6 yards per reception. That amounts to just 4.98 yards per target, which is one of the best marks you’ll see for a perimeter cornerback. He has allowed a touchdown every 13.0 targets in coverage, so he’s not untouchable, but it’s much tougher than Ridley’s matchup last week. He’s likely to return to the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 conversation after this game. There’s been just nine top-30 receivers against the Ravens all season.

Mohamed Sanu: Despite battling through a hip injury for much of the last month, Sanu has now totaled at least 45 yards in seven of his last eight games, though he’s topped 74 yards just once. He’s kind of like the Willie Snead of the Falcons offense, though he doesn’t have Lamar Jackson throwing to him. The Ravens held Tavon Young out of the lineup last week, which led to Brandon Carr covering the slot, and that’s a downgrade for Sanu. Carr has been among the best cornerbacks in football this year, allowing just 28-of-57 passing (49.1 percent) for 438 yards and no touchdowns. That’s a rather-high 15.6 yards per reception, but Sanu isn’t someone who gets targeted down the field very much. His 8.4-yard average depth of target pales in comparison to Ridley’s 10.6 aDOT and Jones’ 13.7 aDOT. If Young plays, you should upgrade Sanu to WR4 territory. If Young sits, he’s nothing more than a touchdown-hopeful WR5.

TEs
Nick Boyle: With Jackson under center, Boyle has run 27 routes while Mark Andrews ran 18, and Hayden Hurst ran 14. The three of them have combined for 11 targets, so there’s targets that may amount to production, but knowing which one? Your guess is as good as mine, but Boyle is the one with the highest floor right now. The Falcons have allowed just 10.3 yards per reception to tight ends and despite seeing 17 red zone targets against them (third-most in the NFL), they’ve allowed just four touchdowns to them. You’re best off looking elsewhere, as tight end is so difficult to project that it gets even harder with a three-way timeshare.

Austin Hooper: The Ravens haven’t been a bad matchup for tight ends, especially for teams who actually target the position. We’ve seen Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, David Njoku, and Jared Cook have all finish as top-12 options against them. The competition hasn’t been great against them this year, with just one tight end seeing more than six targets. They’ve allowed a 70 percent completion-rate to tight ends, so Hooper should be a relatively high-floor, high-end TE2 in this matchup, as he’s seen 24 targets over the last three games. With enough detractors in the Falcons offense (and tough matchups for them), Hooper could surprise this week. He’s definitely on the streaming radar.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Total: 54.5
Line: LAR by 10.0

QBs
Jared Goff: The last time we saw Goff, he was lighting up the Chiefs defense for 413 yards and four touchdowns. Can he repeat it against the Lions? Sure, but he’s going to need Stafford to go toe-to-toe with him. The Lions offense hasn’t been able to do that much, which is the reason their defense isn’t among the ‘perceived’ top-five matchups for a quarterback. In fact, the Lions have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points, but that doesn’t tell the whole picture. They’re maybe the worst pass-defense in the league from an efficiency standpoint, as they’ve allowed 8.65 yards per attempt (2nd-highest), a 69.1 percent completion-rate (4th-highest), and a 7.34 percent touchdown-rate (2nd-highest). Now tell me why they’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points. Attempts. Teams have averaged just 29.7 attempts per game against them, which ranks as the second-lowest in the NFL. Goff has now thrown at least 35 attempts in each of the last four games while the defense has struggled, so it’s impossible not to love him here. While you should have concerns about the volume, he’s still likely going to wind-up posting top-five numbers. He’s a must-play QB1 and offers a fantasy floor that’s great for cash games.

Matthew Stafford: We know one thing that’s true against the Rams – you’re going to throw the ball quite a bit. While they’ve faced the 18th-most passes per game, the lack of attempts from some starters was due to lack of necessity, as limited volume got the job done. Despite seeing the 18th-most pass attempts, they’ve allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (25) this year. After being sacked 16 times in two weeks, the Lions offensive line appears to be back to normal and has allowed just three sacks over the last two weeks. The bad news is that Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones are not playing this week, as Johnson is still recovering from his knee injury and Jones was placed on injured reserve. The Rams don’t have a cornerback who’s able to shutdown Golladay, so we should see him go that route quite often, but his lack of other big-time playmakers is glaring. The Rams have allowed 13 passing touchdowns over the last three games, but they’ve also played Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees in those games. Knowing the projected gamescript, Stafford should have plenty of volume and be able to produce at least middling QB2 numbers, if not high-end QB2 numbers.

RBs
Todd Gurley: It was a maddening performance against the Chiefs before the bye week, as Gurley appeared to hurt his lower leg on the first drive of the game, though not many noticed. He’s now scored just two touchdowns in his last three games and hasn’t topped 68 rushing yards in two of them. The Lions have been a different run-defense with the addition of Damon Harrison, as they’ve allowed just 382 yards on 99 carries (3.86 yards per carry) with three touchdowns in five games with him. Prior to getting him, they allowed 812 yards on 137 carries (5.93 yards per carry) with four touchdowns in six games without him. Fortunately, we don’t have to just rely on rushing production out of Gurley, as he’s seen at least five targets in 8-of-11 games. You’re going to play him as an RB1 this week, though it’s worth noting the Lions opponents have averaged just 57.7 plays per game, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. Fade Gurley in DFS at your own discretion because I won’t be the one who tells you to do that.

LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick: After averaging 2.3 yards per carry on the season and scoring three touchdowns on 78 carries, it’s only natural that Blount would rack up 88 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears, right? Ugh. The Rams opponents have averaged just 19.9 carries per game as a team, though they’ve had success on those carries, averaging 4.90 yards per carry and a touchdown every 27.4 carries, both of which are among the bottom-12 marks in the league. Gamescript is obviously a huge concern if you’re relying on Blount as anything more than a touchdown-dependent option. There’s been just two running backs who’ve finished top-12 against the Rams and both of them had receiving touchdowns. With the lack of depth behind him, Blount should be considered a middling RB3 who will get all the goal-line carries, just know that if this game goes south quickly, we won’t see much of him. As for Riddick, he’s in a wide receiver role right now. He’s seen at least six targets in each of the last four games, totaling 25 receptions for 174 yards. The Rams have allowed the second-fewest yards per target to opposing running backs (4.40 yards per target), though we did see Jalen Richard rack-up nine catches for 55 yards against them. Riddick should be a high-floor RB3, especially in PPR formats.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: He’s going to get the Darius Slay treatment, though that hasn’t been a terrible thing this year, as Slay has allowed five touchdowns on 51 targets in his coverage this year, including four in his last six games. He’s yet to allow a reception for more than 30 yards on the season, but the Rams move Cooks around enough to get him out of Slay’s coverage. With the offense as concentrated as it is with Woods/Cooks/Gurley, you almost have to play each of them regardless of matchup. As a team, the Lions allow 10.33 yards per target to wide receivers, which is easily the most in the league, as is the 15.1 yards per reception they average. Slay has the speed to keep up with Cooks, but he should still be in lineups as an upside WR2 this week who’s seen 12 targets in each of the last two games.

Robert Woods: If there’s a matchup the Rams must be licking their chops with, it’s Woods’ matchup in the slot against… whoever the Lions put out there. They’ve rotated cornerbacks in and out, though none of them have had any success. They actually made last year’s second-round pick Teez Tabor a healthy scratch last week, as he’s allowed a perfect 158.3 QB Rating in his coverage this year. So, they moved starting perimeter cornerback Nevin Lawson in the slot, who proceeded to allow four catches and 48 yards on just 29 snaps in the slot. He hasn’t been much better, allowing a 115.4 QB Rating in his coverage this year. The slot is a different position all together, so feel free to slot Woods in as a low-end WR1 this week who could go bananas.

Josh Reynolds: After the Lions decided to bench Teez Tabor, they moved Nevin Lawson into the slot in 3WR sets (which the Rams run almost exclusively). That, of course, led them to start undrafted rookie Mike Ford in his place, a cornerback who’s allowed 11-of-12 passing for 176 yards on just 80 snaps played this year. You can start to see why the Lions have allowed 2.23 PPR points per target to opposing receivers, as they’ve allowed a touchdown every 11.7 targets in coverage. In his limited time as a starter, Reynolds has scored three touchdowns on just 20 targets. He’s the one who’d suffer the most if the Rams threw the ball just 30 or less times, but his upside is worth it against this defense. Consider him a low-end WR3 who comes with plenty of upside if Slay can shut-down Cooks.

Kenny Golladay: With Marvin Jones out of the lineup the last two and a half weeks, Golladay has seen a ridiculous 36 targets. That’s good enough for a 30.8 percent target share, which is beyond elite territory. The Rams have had issues defending wide receivers this year, as they’ve allowed a ridiculously-high 9.85 yards per target and a touchdown every 10.8 targets, which is more often than any team in the league. To give you an idea as to how ridiculous that yards per target is, there’ve been just 22 receivers who’ve averaged more all season (minimum 30 targets). Keep in mind it’s the elite receivers who get into that territory. On average, the Rams have allowed elite production. There have been six wide receivers who’ve seen at least eight targets against them. Every single one of them scored at least 23 PPR points. Golladay should be viewed as a low-end WR1 in this game who has massive potential, as the Rams have allowed the No. 1 wide receiver for the week in two of their last three games. It seems they may be getting Aqib Talib back this week (he’s been out since Week 3), which would definitely be a downgrade for the matchup, but not enough to knock Golladay out of WR2 territory.

Bruce Ellington: Even though he’s been with the team for two weeks, Ellington is playing a big role on this team, as he’s been targeted 16 times, catching 12 passes for 80 yards. That’s obviously not going to win you a week, but in PPR formats, he’s very usable. The Rams decided to roll with Troy Hill in the slot against the Chiefs in Week 11, though you wonder if they go back to Nickell Robey-Coleman, who has easily been their best slot cornerback this season. He played just 13 snaps against the Chiefs, so it’s not a lock that he’s out there. Meanwhile, Hill has allowed 25-of-35 passing for 404 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage, so you have to wonder why he’d be out there. For those counting at home, it adds up to a 137.4 QB Rating in his coverage, while Robey-Coleman has allowed just an 85.0 rating in his coverage. Ellington is a high-floor WR4 in PPR leagues this week, though he’s got somewhat of a limited ceiling.

TEs
Gerald Everett: In a game Goff threw the ball 49 times, Everett saw just four targets. That makes me sad because he’s someone who can have a real impact when involved. Those four targets went a long way, as he totaled 49 yards and two touchdowns on them, with both coming in the fourth quarter. The Lions haven’t been a defense who’s been especially giving to tight ends the way the Chiefs were, and teams are averaging just under 30 pass attempts per game against them. Unless we see Everett clearly involved and playing more than 23 snaps (that’s his season-high), it’s going to be impossible to trust him. If you do, it’d be in a game where the Rams meet their match and have to throw 35-plus points on the scoreboard while throwing 40 times. This game doesn’t seem like one that’ll have that, so Everett is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2 who plays in one of the best offenses in the league. He’s also playing about one-third the snaps that Tyler Higbee is, though Everett has produced more. If we see him get increased snaps at some point, he could become a thing.

Michael Roberts: With all the injuries piling up for the Lions, they’ve actually had to target the tight end position. Roberts saw a season-high six targets last week against the Bears, though he only netted three catches for 16 yards and looked lackadaisical on the interception that sealed the Bears the game. Whatever the case, he’s the best receiving option they have, and the Rams have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends on the season. There have been seven different tight ends who’ve totaled at least 43 yards against them, and a large part of that is due to the 13.5 yards per reception they’ve allowed, which ranks as the fourth-highest mark in the league. If Aqib Talib returns, it will downgrade Golladay’s matchup enough to where we could see Roberts get five-plus targets, making him a decent TE2 this week and one who may surprise, unless Stafford lost confidence in him after last week’s game. Roberts isn’t safe, but which tight ends really are?

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 42.0
Line: DEN by 3.5

QBs
Case Keenum: After losing another pass-catcher (Jeff Heuerman) for the season, Keenum will have a break-in game against the Bengals, a team that’s now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last six games, including 28 or more in five of them. The 31.5 points per game they allow ranks dead-last, and the 70.8 plays per game their opponents average ranks as the second-most. Keenum has yet to deliver a fantasy performance with more than 21 points, and he’s topped 15 points just three times this year, but if there’s one week you can debate streaming him, it’s this one. The magic number is apparently QB13, as they’ve allowed 10-of-11 quarterbacks they’ve played to finish as top-13 quarterbacks. The only one who didn’t was Ryan Tannehill back in Week 5 when he was playing through a shoulder injury. They’re banged-up on defense and rarely get a pass-rush, making Keenum a solid fill-in. With his lack of ceiling, it’s hard to call him more than a middling-to-high-end QB2, but he should offer a solid floor.

Jeff Driskel: Now that Andy Dalton has been sent to injured reserve, Driskel gets his opportunity to control the offense. He’s thrown just 36 career pass attempts that have netted 239 yards and one touchdown, while running for 49 yards and two touchdowns on just 61 snaps. He’ll likely be without A.J. Green (Green will play this week), which isn’t great, but he’s a much better scrambler than Dalton. He ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and has displayed his athleticism at the NFL level. He’ll need it against the Broncos, who have generated 22 sacks over their last six games, forcing 13 turnovers in the process. They have, however, allowed 863 yards through the air over the last two weeks. In fact, each of the last four quarterbacks to play against them have totaled at least 8.3 yards per attempt. With their defense shutting down opposing run-games, Driskel will be the one who’s often moving the ball. Overall, Driskel has looked solid in a limited sample size. He has a live arm (though not much touch) and offers the mobility to give you a solid floor in 2QB leagues. He’s not a recommended streamer in 1QB leagues just yet, but his skill-set is one to watch.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: What happens when you get one of the hottest running backs in the NFL go up against a defense that’s allowed 100-plus rushing yards in seven of their last nine games? The Bengals opponents are averaging 70.9 plays per game, which has led to a sky-high 29.7 running back touches per game. Lindsay has clearly established himself as the lead-back in this offense, totaling at least 15 touches in each of the last five games. He’s totaled 189 yards and three touchdowns on his last 25 carries, and more importantly, Devontae Booker has been a forgotten man since the bye week, playing just 17 snaps the last two weeks combined. You’ll always have to worry about Freeman coming in and stealing goal-line carries, but Lindsay still leads the team in red zone carries with 21 (Freeman has 14). The Bengals have allowed a top-10 running back performance in seven of their last nine games, and Lindsay is likely the next one on that list. Consider him a must-play, low-end RB1. As for Freeman, he’s somewhat of an expensive handcuff to Lindsay at this point, though he has scored a touchdown in five of his last eight games. He’s still getting some touches, including some goal-line work, so he can be considered as an emergency RB4, but this is Lindsay’s backfield.

Joe Mixon: If there’s someone who benefits from Driskel under center, it’s probably Mixon. Of the 36 pass attempts Driskel has thrown, here’s the breakdown of targets: C.J. Uzomah 10, Auden Tate 7, Tyler Boyd 5, John Ross 5, Mixon 4, Cody Core 4, Giovani Bernard 1. If there’s one thing that was maddening with Dalton, it was that he only went to Mixon as a last-ditch option, whereas Driskel seemed to have somewhat better play-recognition last week. Again, it’s a very small sample, but it was promising to see Mixon utilized in the pass-game. The Broncos are a team who’s turned up the heat against the run, allowing just 309 yards on 99 carries (3.12 yards per carry) with no touchdowns over their last five games, which has included David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Lamar Miller, Melvin Gordon, and James Conner. That’s a gauntlet they made it through while allowing very limited production on the ground. Through the air is a different story, though. They’ve allowed 26 receptions for 287 yards and a touchdown in those five games. Knowing that none of those running backs topped 69 rushing yards and that Gordon was the only one who finished as an RB1, there’s concern in this matchup. Mixon should be considered a middling RB2 this week.

WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: It was good to see Sanders get back on track last week with 12 targets, seven receptions, 86 yards and a touchdown, as he’d fallen into no-mans land without Demaryius Thomas the previous three weeks. He’s going to have a great matchup against the Bengals this week, who use Darqueze Dennard in the slot, who has allowed 30-of-39 passing for 371 yards and a touchdown this year, good enough for a 114.4 QB Rating in his coverage. That’s a much better matchup than Sutton has, as he’ll see a lot of William Jackson. With Jeff Heuerman out for the year and knocking the Broncos down to their third-string tight end, the targets have to go somewhere, and opposing wide receivers are averaging 21.2 targets per game against the Bengals. Sanders should be a lock for eight-plus targets in this game, making him a rock-solid WR2 in a plus-matchup.

Courtland Sutton: Another week goes by and another week where Sutton has still failed to generate more than three catches in an NFL game. Is it because of his talent? I don’t think so, but the issue is that he hasn’t seen a bigger role with Demaryius Thomas gone. He’s seen just 5, 6, and 4 targets the last three weeks. Combine that with a 46 percent catch-rate and it’s cause for concern. With Jeff Heuerman out for the year, he should see an uptick, so I’ll be buying, but maybe after this game. The Bengals have William Jackson to cover him, a bigger, physical cornerback who’s held opposing receivers to just a 56.9 percent catch-rate in his coverage, though he has allowed four touchdowns on the season. Between him and Dre Kirkpatrick, they’re not likely to allow much yardage to Sutton, but where he’s best (red zone) is where they struggle most. There’s a possibility of a touchdown here, so he’s in the WR4 conversation, but he’ll need that touchdown to not let you down.

A.J. Green: In a shocking development, Green has been completely removed from the injury report and will play this Sunday. The matchup against the Broncos is a good one, but knowing Green may be out there as a decoy is somewhat worrisome. Remember, foot injuries and pass-catchers do not go well together. We don’t know what type of chemistry he’ll have with Driskel, but he should be targeted heavily if he’s actually healthy. This is a tough decision for fantasy owners, but be happy it’s Week 13 and not the fantasy playoffs just yet. He should be considered a risk/reward WR2 this week.

John Ross: Similar to Courtland Sutton, Ross has yet to record more than three catches in an NFL game. He’s a different type of receiver, but it’s still noteworthy. Driskel lacks accuracy on his deep-ball, but Ross creates separation all over the field, so he shouldn’t be forgotten. The Broncos secondary has been struggling to contain wide receivers as of late and have allowed a 23-plus point receiver in each of the last four games. Prior to that, they’ve been somewhat mediocre, though they have allowed at least one top-36 receiver in every game. They really struggled against the deep ball earlier in the season, but seem to have figured some things out, as they no longer lead the league in 20-plus yard plays against them, though they’ve still allowed 44 of them (ranks as sixth-most). Ross has seen at least six targets in each of the last three games, and despite them being relatively tough matchups, he made it through with a touchdown in each. He’s someone who belongs in the WR4 conversation this week.

Tyler Boyd: The loss of A.J. Green continued to haunt the Bengals passing game, though Boyd got back on track last week with a 7/85/1 performance that would’ve been more if not for a late-game illegal shift penalty that wiped out a 40-plus yard reception from Driskel. Boyd has still given you a solid floor with Green out (at least 65 yards in each of the last four games), but has lacked the ceiling. That’s likely to be the case again this week against Chris Harris Jr. He’ll be the one covering Boyd 75 percent of the time, as the slot is his home. We saw the Steelers move JuJu Smith-Schuster out to the perimeter to get out of Harris’ coverage last week, and that’s where he broke off his long touchdown catch. Harris hasn’t been untouchable this year, though, as Keenan Allen and the Chargers touched him up for 7/96/1 in Week 11. Still, he’s allowing just 9.1 yards per reception and the touchdown to Allen was the first he’d allowed on the season. Bottom line is that this isn’t a great matchup for Boyd, but he’s still likely to see targets, putting us in a tough spot. With the floor he’s given, we should play him as a high-end WR3, but don’t expect him to carry your team.

TEs
Matt LaCosse: Now down both Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman, the Broncos will be forced to go to with third-string tight end LaCosse as their starter. He’s seen 17 targets this year, producing 14 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown on them. It’s a small sample size, but he’s been competent. The Bengals have allowed a 77 percent catch-rate to tight ends, including a touchdown every 12.4 targets. Because of that, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per target to the position. There’s been six different tight ends who’ve totaled at least 51 yards against them, though many of them have been phenomenal athletes (Howard, Kelce, Ebron, McDonald, Njoku), while LaCosse won’t be confused for Travis Kelce any time soon. Knowing that Heuerman walked into a lot of targets when Butt went down, we should probably expect the same for LaCosse, though we’d ideally see it first. He’s on the TE2 radar, but you can probably find a more reliable streamer.

C.J. Uzomah: Of the 36 pass attempts that Driskel has thrown this year, 10 of them have been directed at Uzomah. While he may not be the most efficient target, the targets matter. With the run-game likely to struggle, the pass attempts will be there for Driskel, and Uzomah has one of the best matchups on the field. The Broncos have allowed seven different tight ends to eclipse 49 yards, including a five-catch, 80-yard, one-touchdown game to the half-retired Antonio Gates two weeks ago. The 13.9 yards per reception they allow is the second-highest mark in the league to only the Raiders. Uzomah should be considered a high-end TE2 for this game, especially knowing that Driskel has given him a 27.8 percent target share.