We’re down to the final week before the fantasy playoffs start. There’re plenty of you who’ll rely on a win to get into the playoffs, so we’re going to do our best to nail your sit/start decisions this week.
Bye weeks are now a thing of the past, so we have a full 16-game slate to cover moving forward. Because of that, the player paragraphs may become a bit smaller in order to ensure the article is done by Thursday morning.
At this point in the year, we know the depth charts, and increases/decreases in snap counts are likely injury related. I’ll make sure to note them if it’s something significant, but instead of recapping the previous week (as I’ll often do), we’ll try to focus on the matchup at hand.
Matchup Links:
CHI at NYG | ARI at GB | IND at JAC | CAR at TB | BUF at MIA | BAL at ATL | LAR at DET | DEN at CIN | CLE at HOU | KC at OAK | NYJ at TEN | MIN at NE | SF at SEA | LAC at PIT | WAS at PHI | NO at DAL
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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.
If you’re new, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Total: 45.0
Line: CHI by 4.5
QBs
Chase Daniel: At this point, it’s fair to say that we shouldn’t expect Mitch Trubisky on the field this week. Daniel did a fine job against the Lions last week, but we must remember that it was the Lions, who may be the worst pass-defense in the league from an efficiency standpoint. Despite the jokes about the Giants, their pass-defense hasn’t been as bad as most think. There’s been just one quarterback all season who’s thrown more than two touchdowns against them, and that was Carson Wentz back in Week 6. They’ve really struggled against the run without Damon Harrison, though, which the Bears should see as an opportunity. No quarterback has topped 40 pass attempts against them, though just one quarterback has thrown less than 32 attempts. The odd part is that they’ve sacked the quarterback on just 3.1 percent of dropbacks, which is the worst in the league, so you’d naturally assume that quarterbacks would have time to carve them up, but their efficiency against them hasn’t been there with just a 4.0 percent touchdown-rate and 7.5 yards per attempt. It was a solid showing by Daniel against the Lions, but he should be considered nothing more than a low-end QB2.
Eli Manning: Since their bye in Week 9, Manning has played well completing 62-of-86 passes (72.1 percent) for 716 yards (8.33 yards per attempt) and six touchdowns with one interception, though the gameplan was questionable in the second-half against the Eagles. The Bears have shown vulnerability at times in their secondary, allowing three touchdown passes on three separate occasions (Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were two of them), but the issue for Manning will be the insane pass-rush that the Bears bring to the table. In the seven healthy games that Khalil Mack has played, the Bears have averaged 4.0 sacks per game. Manning has been sacked a league-high 38 times this season, and that will be his biggest issue this week. Without any rushing totals, you need Manning to throw for 275-plus yards and three touchdowns to get into QB1 territory, which just doesn’t make all that much sense in this game. He’s just a low-end QB2, though the Giants will need to rely on him more than in weeks past because Barkley will have his hands full against the Bears front-seven.
RBs
Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard: “Who the heck is Taquan Mizzell?” That’s the question I got more than any other during the Thanksgiving slate of games. He’s the third-string running back who had some experience with Daniel in practices, so the Bears seemingly wanted some familiarity with him on a short week. That’s not likely to continue this week against the Giants, as the Bears are likely to try and get Howard going once again, similar to the way they did against the Jets and Bills a few weeks back. Since trading away defensive tackle Damon Harrison, the Giants have allowed 535 yards on 104 carries (5.14 yards per carry) with four rushing touchdowns in four games. They’ve allowed at least 84 yards to each of the last four running backs, which included Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida, Peyton Barber, and Josh Adams. Outside of last week, Howard had totaled at least 11 carries in every game, including 14 or more carries in 7-of-10 games. He’s not a great fit for this offense, but he’s back in the low-end RB2 conversation this week who should find the end zone. Meanwhile, Cohen hasn’t topped seven carries since back in Week 4, though he’s utilized plenty in the passing-game. Knowing that running backs saw 13 of the 37 attempts Daniel had last week, Cohen should be considered a relatively high-floor RB3, though the Giants have allowed just 5.1 yards per target to running backs on the season.
Saquon Barkley: Despite playing for a team with a bad offensive line and one averaging just 21.5 points per game, Barkley currently sits as the No. 2 running back in PPR formats, which just goes to show his potential. Against the Bears, he’s not likely to come with the same ceiling you’ve had the last two weeks. They did allow LeGarrette Blount two touchdowns last week but have still allowed just 3.41 yards per carry on the year. Blount is much more of a downhill runner, which is likely the best approach against the Bears, because the longer you dance behind the line of scrimmage, the more likely you’ll be surrounded. They’ve also allowed just 5.1 yards per target to running backs, which is a top-eight number in the league, though they have allowed four receiving touchdowns to them. Barkley is a monster after the catch and if there’s anywhere the Bears defense has let down this year, it’s tackling in the secondary. Barkley should be played as an RB1, though it’s not likely to be a 200-yard, multi-touchdown game or anything. He’ll be a better play in PPR formats.
WRs
Allen Robinson: Prior to the season, most would’ve looked at this matchup as a tough one against Janoris Jenkins, but he’s been so weak this year that the Giants abandoned the whole ‘shadow coverage’ thing. He’s playing RCB, which is where Robinson plays just 30 percent of the time. Robinson plays all over the formation but will see B.W. Webb more than any other cornerback. Webb has yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage this year but has allowed a 65 percent catch-rate and 12.1 yards per reception. He’s the definition of an average cornerback, though he’d been considered a matchup to target coming into 2018, as quarterbacks had posted a 110-plus QB Rating when targeting him. Robinson isn’t a must-play WR2 or anything, but he’s teetering on the WR2/3 conversation this week in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.
Taylor Gabriel: He saw double the targets of both Robinson and Miller last week, though they amounted to just 7/49/0. Still, it was good to see him bounce-back in the target column. He’s going to see Janoris Jenkins the most in coverage, and while that was once considered a brutal matchup, he’s allowed a team-high 13.5 yards per reception, a 73.8 percent catch-rate, and seven touchdowns in his coverage. Jenkins has 4.4 speed, so it’s not as if he’s slow, but it’s not an auto-avoid matchup. Knowing the Giants have allowed just 10 top-36 wide receiver performances through 11 weeks, it’s tough to say Gabriel should be in that conversation, so put him in the WR4 territory with some upside, though it’d help if Trubisky made it back for this game.
Anthony Miller: After seeing at least six targets in four straight games with Robinson out or limited, Miller has now seen just seven targets over the last two weeks combined. That’s an issue for a player who’s topped 49 yards just once all season. The Giants have undrafted rookie Grant Haley covering the slot and that’s great news for Miller. He’s allowed 9-of-14 passing for 98 yards and a touchdown during his limited stint as the Giants nickel cornerback. Whenever you see rookie-on-rookie, it should give the more-talented player a bit of confidence, and it’s not as if Miller is lacking that to begin with. This offense is going to feature a lot of different players from week-to-week, but Miller’s matchup is one to exploit making him a decent WR4 play.
Odell Beckham: Coming off a disappointing day against a dinged-up Eagles secondary, Beckham will try to get back on track against Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. The Bears run man-coverage nearly 80 percent of the time on the perimeter, which should be a good thing, but Beckham has done much better against zone defense throughout the year. This might be more on Manning and his unwillingness to throw the ball into tight man coverage, but it’s worth noting. The Bears have allowed four top-12 wide receiver performances this year, and in three of those games, the wide receiver totaled more than 60 yards after the catch. There’s been just one game this year where Beckham has topped 40 yards after the catch this year, so the two don’t add up very well. The thing he’ll have going his direction is the Bears ability to stop the run, which should lead to more attempts for Manning, and in return, more targets for Beckham. He should be started as a WR1 even in a tough matchup, but he’ll need to do some work after the catch to hit elite status. The targets should be there.
Sterling Shepard: With Evan Engram hurting his hamstring last week in pre-game warmups, you would’ve thought that Shepard would see more than six targets in a plus-matchup against the Eagles, though the Giants couldn’t exactly plan for that. He’ll match-up with Bryce Callahan this week, the Bears slot cornerback who’s been playing extremely well this year. He’s allowing just 8.1 yards per reception on the year and has allowed just one touchdown on 46 targets in coverage, which included games against Adam Thielen, Julian Edelman, Adam Humphries, and Larry Fitzgerald. Still, with Engram out of the lineup, Shepard has seen an average of 8.0 targets in those games, so they’ll likely test Callahan. Because of that, Shepard should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
TEs
Trey Burton: As is the case with the Bears every week, there’s someone different making plays. It’s clear that Burton’s not seeing the targets that Travis Kelce does in the offense, but he’s still somehow the No. 9 fantasy tight end through 12 weeks. Burton did see seven targets with Daniel under center last week, which is a positive sign. The Giants have really struggled with tight ends the last three weeks, as they’ve allowed George Kittle 9/83/0, O.J. Howard 5/78/0, and Zach Ertz 7/91/1. Those are some athletic tight ends, which is the profile that Burton fits. In fact, he plays the same role as Ertz does in the offense, but obviously doesn’t see the volume Ertz does. He’s still in-play as a low-end TE1 who can go for 80-plus yards and a touchdown at any point.
Rhett Ellison: We didn’t know until after the game started, but Evan Engram pulled his hamstring during pre-game warmups last week. That led to Ellison seeing six targets against the Eagles. He’s filled-in for Engram four times this year, posting lines of 3/29/0, 2/17/0, 2/11/0, and 4/77/0. Needless to say, the tight end position isn’t heavily utilized in Pat Shurmur’s offense. On top of that, Ellison has been asked to stay in and block roughly 54 percent of the time, and that number is likely to go up against the Bears pass-rush. No tight end has reached 50 yards through the air against the Bears, so it’s not a matchup that you need to be targeting as a streamer.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
Total: 44.5
Line: GB by 14.5
QBs
Josh Rosen: Things looked better under Byron Leftwich, but seeing Rosen throw just 39 passes over the last two weeks is worrisome. They’re losing the time of possession battle every game and Rosen’s been making some young mistakes. The Packers are a team that has been getting after the quarterback, as they lead the league with a 9.47 percent sack-rate. They’ve only intercepted six passes all year, which is welcoming news for Rosen who’s been intercepted a league-high 10 times over the last six games. The Packers are nearly two-touchdown favorites in Green Bay, and they’ve allowed just three top-15 quarterback performances against them this year (two of them Kirk Cousins, other Jared Goff). You’re not streaming Rosen with the limited pass attempts combined with the low yards per attempt that hasn’t topped 6.8 since way back in Week 6.
Aaron Rodgers: You were warned about playing Rodgers in Minnesota last week, but back at home against the Cardinals? The odds are a bit better. The Cardinals defense has been struggling as of late, as they allowed just eight passing touchdowns over the first eight games but have allowed seven of them the last three weeks (Philip Rivers 3, Derek Carr 2, Patrick Mahomes 2). They do bring the pressure, as they rank second to only the Packers in sack percentage, and Rodgers has been sacked nine times over the last two weeks. His offensive line is dinged-up quite a bit, too, as tackle David Bakhtiari and guard Lane Taylor were both hurt last week. The zone defense that the Cardinals play much of the time has also limited the rushing totals against them, as quarterbacks have amounted to just 110 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Look, the Cardinals allow a 68.9 percent completion-rate and have intercepted just six passes all year, so you’re not going to bench Rodgers at home. He should be played as a QB1, though he probably doesn’t come with the top-three ceiling you’d hoped he would when you drafted him.
RBs
David Johnson: He now has 93 touches through four games (23.3 per game) under Byron Leftwich, which is elite territory and a good thing against the Packers who’ve allowed 4.56 yards per carry and 7.26 yards per target to opposing running backs. The issue has been the touches, as there’s been just five running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 touches against them. Of those five running backs, three of them finished as top-eight options, while all of them were top-24 options. With linebacker Nick Perry and defensive tackle Mike Daniels out, it’s not a matchup where you worry about efficiency. Packers opponents average 64.1 plays per game, which is much higher than the 47 and 54 plays the Cardinals have run the last two weeks. Johnson is a heavy underdog on the road, but it helps that he’s gamescript-proof, making him a solid middling to low-end RB1.
Aaron Jones: It’s official, we have another workhorse that’s part of a high-scoring offense. He’s now totaled 36 of the 38 touches for Packers running backs the last two weeks. He’ll now go against a Cardinals team that’s allowed more rushing touchdowns (14) than any other team in the NFL. They’ve also allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,454) on the season to only the Raiders. It’s why we’ve seen seven different running backs post 20-plus PPR points against them, and that’s without much in the receiving department, as just two of those running backs totaled more than four receptions. The offensive line injuries are a concern, but Jones isn’t someone who dances and waits for a hole to open, as he’s played downhill, hitting holes with authority. Play him as a rock-solid RB1 this week and one who should be safe enough to use in cash lineups.
WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: After scoring a touchdown in the first quarter, he disappeared for the remainder of the game. Some will be concerned about his six targets over the last two weeks, but knowing Rosen’s thrown just 39 times, it’s not that surprising. The Packers have faced an average of 20.8 wide receiver targets per game, so let’s just say Fitzgerald gets a nice bump in this game. He’ll be going up against his former teammate, as Tramon Williams will be asked to cover him in the slot. Since moving into the slot back in Week 8, Williams has 11-of-15 passing for 204 yards and four touchdowns. Let’s just say that he’s not built to play the slot, but the Packers don’t have much of a choice will all the injuries in their secondary. Fitzgerald should be able to post at least WR3 numbers in this game with upside for more.
Christian Kirk: He’s now posted at least 41 yards in six of the last seven games, but his reward will be to play against Jaire Alexander for much of the game. Alexander has had a great rookie campaign allowing just a 58.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage, while allowing just one touchdown on 53 targets. The injuries to safety Kentrell Brice and the trading of Haha Clinton-Dix has made the Packers defense more susceptible to the big play, which is something Kirk has relied upon this year, as he’s caught five passes that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air for 190 yards and a touchdown. His matchup is tougher than Fitzgerald’s here, but gamescript should allow him to see five-plus targets. He’s in the WR4 conversation this week.
Davante Adams: If you didn’t see the touchdown reception by Adams against the Vikings, you should go back and watch the highlight. It was legitimately impossible for any cornerback to defend, as the ball was thrown well before the break in his route and it was thrown to a spot where only Adams could catch it. He’ll see a whole lot of Patrick Peterson this week, the cornerback he referred to as the best in the NFL and the toughest one he’s ever faced. The Cardinals don’t use Peterson in shadow coverage all the time, but they will against Adams. Peterson still doesn’t travel into the slot, which is where Adams goes roughly 20 percent of the time. The Cardinals still use zone coverage most of the time (roughly 60 percent of the time), so even though Peterson will be on his side of the field, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be able to track Adams across the field on his routes, so this would require some game-planning by the Packers coaching staff. Adams is always someone you’re playing as a WR1, but this isn’t a week where you need to play him aggressively in DFS.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: You could’ve predicted this from a mile away, as Valdes-Scantling had a brutal matchup last week against the Vikings. It’s led to many owners dropping him, but his matchup this week is much better (provided Randall Cobb misses another game). The Cardinals have struggled against slot receivers all year, as they’ve been flip-flopping cornerbacks while trying to find the right combination. It’s been Leonard Johnson the last two weeks and he’s allowed 9-of-9 passing for 102 yards in his coverage. It’s possible that Budda Baker comes back for this game (been out since Week 10), but even if he does, he’s allowed an 88 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year. If Cobb plays, it would be a bit tougher against Bene Benwikere, but his matchup would still be slightly better than Adams. Valdes-Scantling should be looked at as a high-upside WR4 (maybe low-end WR3 if Cobb is out). Update: It appears Cobb will be on the field this weekend, which takes away some of Valdes-Scantling’s appeal. He should be moved into the WR4 range. Meanwhile, Cobb is a sneaky start, though risky coming off a multi-week absence.
TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: We now have a trend and it’s not a good one. Seals-Jones has played just 40 snaps over the last two weeks, while Jermaine Gresham has played 70 snaps. Gresham has only run eight routes on his snaps while Seals-Jones has run 25 of them, but it’s clear they don’t view him as an every-down player right now. The Packers have allowed just one touchdown on 61 targets to tight ends this year, though their injuries in the secondary could affect things moving forward. We saw Kyle Rudolph rack-up 7/63/0 in one of his best performances of the year last week, but it was the first time since Week 4 where they’d allowed a tight end more than 30 yards. The pass attempts should increase, as should his targets, but he’s just a risky TE2 considering the recent demotion.
Jimmy Graham: Yes, Graham is playing through his broken thumb. Yes, it’s affecting his snap counts. After playing 71-98 percent of the snaps over the first 10 weeks, Graham has played just 42 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks, including a season-low 41.5 percent in Week 12. The Cardinals have defended tight ends well the last month, and they’ve played some good ones in that time. George Kittle was held to 5/57/0, Travis Kelce to 6/46/0, and Jared Cook to 3/31/1. Between Tre Boston and Antoine Bethea, they’ve allowed just 0.49 yards per covered snap, which isn’t great considering Graham’s limited snap counts the last few weeks. Tight ends have only averaged 5.3 targets per game against the Cardinals (third-lowest), so opportunities haven’t been easy to come by for them, either. Graham is just a middling TE2 who comes with the risk of being shut-down at any minute.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 48.0
Line: IND by 3.5
QBs
Andrew Luck: After escaping with a narrow victory over the Dolphins, Luck will try to keep his three-plus touchdown streak which now stands at eight games (tied for second all-time) going on the road against a reeling Jaguars team. They’ve now allowed four straight quarterbacks total at least 20 fantasy points against them. In fact, they’ve allowed five of the last six quarterbacks to accomplish that feat against them after allowing just two quarterbacks hit that mark in their previous 21 games. There’s still been just two quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more than two touchdowns, but Luck was one of them, as was Carson Wentz. It’s clear that the Doug Pederson/Frank Reich offense has their number, as the lines of the two quarterbacks were eerily similar. Luck went 21-of-29 for 285 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Wentz went 21-of-30 for 286 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. This game will be on the road in Jacksonville, so it’s not going to be as easy, though Luck may have to go back to his 40-50 attempt days with Marlon Mack questionable after suffering a concussion against the Dolphins. The odd part of the Jaguars defense is that if you look at strictly passing numbers, they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The 305 yards and four touchdowns on the ground is what shoots them up lists, though Luck hasn’t run the ball at all this year, totaling less than 10 yards in each of the last seven games. He’s playing so well, you have to keep him in there as a QB1, but he’s likely not going to hit top-five numbers this week.
Cody Kessler: It’s official, Blake Bortles has been benched. The issue is that Kessler is down to his third-string left tackle, backup center, and he’ll now be without guard Andrew Norwell, who hurt his ankle in last week’s loss. The Colts pass-rush has been inconsistent to say the least, as they have totaled five or more sacks in three games, but have netted zero sacks in three games as well. Due to the lack of pressure, they’ve allowed a 71.7 percent completion-rate, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. They’ve still allowed just 18 passing scores compared to 11 interceptions on the year, so it’s kept quarterbacks out of the elite territory, though you wouldn’t be expecting that out of Kessler, anyway. Bortles actually played well against them back in Week 10 when he completed 26-of-38 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns, but the offensive line concerns are real for the less-mobile Kessler. The change in offensive coordinator is going to have an effect, though we don’t know how much just yet. With Fournette suspended for the game, Kessler is likely going to throw a bit more than they’d like him to, but he’s just a low-end QB2/high-end QB3.
RBs
Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins: We don’t know if Mack will be cleared in time for this game, but we do know that running backs who don’t practice with the team for Frank Reich often suffer in the snap column. Not that this was a good matchup anyway, but him being out would give Hines/Wilkins a lot more opportunities. The Jaguars held them to 32 yards on 15 carries for much of the day in Week 10, though Wilkins broke a 53-yard run that skewed the overall stats. You may think, “Oh, this is a great week to play Hines, right?” Well, maybe not, considering the Jaguars have allowed just one team of running backs total more than 47 receiving yards, and that was the Patriots who use James White as a receiver. In the first meeting between these two, Hines totaled just three receptions for 19 yards. He’s likely to see more volume if Mack is out, but it’s not enough to make him a must-start or anything. Consider him just a high-end RB4 if Mack is out. Wilkins has been impressive since Week 5, as he’s totaled 182 yards on just 19 carries (9.58 yards per carry), which is no coincidence that it’s when the Colts offensive line started blocking a lot better. If Mack is out, he’s the one who’d be the best play in this backfield, though you have to limit expectations against a Jaguars team that’s allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year. They’ve still yet to allow a running back finish as anything better than the RB10 in any given week. Wilkins would still be on the low-end RB3 radar. Update: Mack has still yet to be fully cleared to play this weekend, though he’s trending in the right direction, as he’s got just one more step to clear protocol. If he does play, Wilkins becomes unplayable, while not much changes for Hines.
Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon: It’s possible that Leonard Fournette cost his team a win last week when he was ejected for throwing a punch, as he was the only reason they were in that game. He may also cost his team this week, as he’s been suspended for this contest. His replacement (Hyde) has totaled just 93 yards on 27 carries (3.44 yards per carry) since joining the team. The Colts allowed Fournette a big day back in Week 10, as he totaled 109 total yards and two touchdowns, though a lot of it came through the air (56 yards, touchdown). The Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard hurt his knee early in the game versus the Dolphins, but his status needs to be monitored throughout the week. The Colts run-defense has been one of their strengths this season, allowing just five rushing touchdowns on the year, and they’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher against them. Because of that, you need to look at the passing game, as there’ve been eight running backs to total five or more receptions against them, including two running backs with 10-plus receptions. Since joining the team, Hyde has caught exactly zero passes, so that part of the game will belong to Yeldon. Teams have averaged 22.8 carries per game against the Colts, so there should be enough work for both running backs, though Yeldon has more value due to his work in the passing-game. Yeldon should be played as a middling RB3 while Hyde is a low-end RB3 who’s gamescript-dependent and can be phased out if the Jaguars fall behind.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton: With back-to-back 125-plus yard games, Hilton will head back into a matchup with Jalen Ramsey, who held him to just three catches for 77 yards in their first meeting. It’s a brutal matchup without a doubt, because even with the Jaguars defense letting down overall, Ramsey has yet to allow a top-10 wide receiver in his coverage. Odell Beckham (WR11) and Antonio Brown (WR12) finished as top-12 options, but they were also targeted 15 and 13 times. Meanwhile, Hilton has yet to see more than 11 targets this year and saw just seven in the previous matchup with Ramsey. He allowed a 78-yard touchdown against the Steelers, but outside of that, the longest reception on 62 targets in coverage was 36 yards. Hilton should be played as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, but he’s not someone you should expect to carry you through to a win this week. Update: Ramsey may be out this week, as he didn’t practice at all. He’s listed as questionable, but if he were to miss this game, Hilton would definitely see an upgrade in his projection, though A.J. Bouye is really good in his own right.
Dontrelle Inman: He’s apparently stole the No. 2 job from Ryan Grant, as Inman played 46 snaps to just 27 for Grant in Week 12. He and Luck have now connected on 17-of-21 attempts for 167 yards and a touchdown, though A.J. Bouye won’t be a walk in the park. He missed the last game these two teams played, and even then, Inman totaled four catches for 41 yards, so it’s not a matchup that you need to target. Inman is here because he’s someone you may want to stash on your bench as someone who can fill-in if you were to have an injury.
Chester Rogers: We were seeing a rapid decline in snaps for Rogers, as he played just 16 and 21 snaps in Weeks 10 and 11, but he popped back on the radar in Week 12 when he played 32 snaps. The role he plays in the slot is typically the area teams attack against the Jaguars, though D.J. Hayden returning to the lineup should help a tad. He’s still by far the weakest link of the cornerbacks on the roster, as he’s allowed an 81.8 percent catch-rate in his coverage. Rogers hasn’t seen more than four targets since way back in Week 6, so he’s not someone you can play confidently, but given his surge in snaps last week, he’s back on the weekly radar.
Donte Moncrief: With the Jaguars moving towards more of a run-heavy approach, Moncrief has seen just eight targets in the last three games combined. He played against his former team in Week 10 and netted 4/98/1, but 80 yards and the touchdown came on one play where he caught the ball along the sideline and two defenders simply whiffed on their tackle attempts. He’s had just one catch in each of the last two games, which doesn’t inspire confidence. Opposing wide receivers averaged just 16.5 targets per game as a team against the Colts, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. The 137.2 yards per game is also worrisome, as that’s the third-lowest number behind only the Bills and Ravens, two teams you don’t aim to start wide receivers against. Moncrief may be the No. 1 receiver for the Jaguars, but he’s nothing more than a touchdown-dependent WR4/5 option this week.
Dede Westbrook: He saw 10 targets the last time these two teams met but was only able to muster five catches for 30 yards against Kenny Moore. He’s played well this year, allowing just 8.4 yards per reception in his coverage, while allowing just two touchdowns on 61 targets and intercepting two passes. Of the 42 cornerbacks who’ve covered the slot on over 25 percent of their snaps, Moore ranks 15th in yards per snap (0.99) allowed and has allowed just a 77.6 QB Rating in his coverage in the slot, which ranks 8th of those 42 cornerbacks. Westbrook offers explosion after the catch (6.2 yards after the catch), so it’s possible he can make it work in this matchup, as Moore has allowed 205 yards after the catch, which is the 16th-most in football. It’s not a matchup you need to attack, but it’s possible that he’s the best Jaguars receiver again. Consider him a low-end WR4 who not only has a slightly below average matchup, but his quarterback has been playing terribly. The hope is that the new offensive coordinator will use Westbrook in more of a field-stretching way, as he has 4.3-second speed.
TEs
Eric Ebron: This is the moment you’ve been waiting for Ebron supporters. After playing just 22-50 percent of the snaps from Week 7-11, he played 71 percent of the snaps against the Dolphins last week. It led to seven targets, five receptions, 45 yards, and two touchdowns. Doyle found the end zone, too, but he played just 56.5 percent of the snaps, saw four targets, which did total four receptions for 16 yards and a touchdown, but we found out after the game that he was out for the season with a kidney injury. The last time they played the Jaguars, the Colts tight ends totaled 10 targets, eight receptions, 133 yards, and three touchdowns. That’s not even counting the rushing touchdown that Ebron had in that game. The crazy part is that the Jaguars have been a really good team at defending tight ends outside of that game. Without that game, they’ve allowed just 37.9 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game to the position. It’s clear they saw something that could be exploited, even though Zach Ertz was held to 4/26/1 the prior game against them. Still, Ebron should be played as a middling TE1 in this matchup with Hilton’s brutal matchup against Ramsey.
James O’Shaughnessy: He’s clearly the top tight end in the offense, as he played 57-of-70 snaps last week. The issue is that he’s now seen just four targets in the last two games combined and netted just one catch for four yards. The firing of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is likely to shift some things around, but unless they changed everything the offense is/has been in a six-day span, it’s not likely to change much for O’Shaughnessy’s outlook, though Kessler should help. The Colts have allowed the third-most yards (779) to tight ends this year, including a season-high 46 for O’Shaughnessy in Week 10, but you’ll be able to live with yourself if he has a big game while sitting on the waiver wire. You can find a streamer with less risk than him this week.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 56.5
Line: CAR by 3.5
QBs
Cam Newton: He played a great game last week, as the offense moved better without Devin Funchess in it. Newton made just one costly mistake in the red zone, but he’s now thrown at least two touchdowns in the last 10 games and has averaged at least 8.5 yards per attempt in three of his last four games. Are you ready to hear just how great of a matchup this is for him? Here’s what the Bucs have allowed this year to quarterbacks with their ranks in parenthesis: 8.71 yards per attempt (32nd), 26 passing touchdowns (32nd), 73.1 percent completion-rate (32nd), 7.07 percent touchdown rate (30th), and 0.63 fantasy points per pass attempt (30th). They rank bottom-three in every statistical category and have generated a sack on just 3.09 percent of dropbacks, which is the second-worst mark in the league. Nick Mullens was down his top two receivers last week and struggled, but he was just the second quarterback this year who’s finished with less than 18.2 fantasy points against the Bucs. The Panthers and Bucs met back in Week 9 when Newton threw just 25 times but totaled 247 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another 33 yards. He’s an elite QB1 start this week whose offense is changing right in front of our eyes.
Jameis Winston: There’s not a better time for Winston to be going against the Panthers, as they’ve now allowed at least 28 points to three of their last four opponents. They’ve now allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8-of-11 games this year and have allowed five opponents throw for at least 310 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center the last time they played and finished with just 243 yards but did throw four touchdowns. The Panthers are also likely without rookie cornerback Donte Jackson (quad injury), who has been responsible for four of the team’s 11 interceptions this year. Even with him healthy, the 24 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed ranks as the fifth-most in the league. The Panthers also allow just 79.5 rushing yards per game to opposing run-games, so it’s unlikely that Winston’s production gets eaten into by Barber. Since being benched, Winston has completed 41-of-54 passes (75.9 percent) for 511 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. He’s deserving of another QB1 start this week.
RBs
Christian McCaffrey: He’s now seen 235 of the 289 total carries/targets on the Panthers. That’s 81.3 percent, a number that is unheard of in today’s NFL. He’s totaled 21.2 touches per game over the last five weeks and will head into a matchup with the Bucs, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Maybe even better for McCaffrey is that they’ve allowed 1.83 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the third-most in the league, behind only the Bengals and Chiefs. Touchdowns were the problem in McCaffrey’s projections, but he’s rectified that problem over the last month, scoring nine touchdowns in his last five games. To give you a gauge of the level he’s playing, he’s scored 154.8 PPR points over that span, which is 25.1 more points than the next closest running back (Saquon Barkley) over their last five games (bye weeks excluded), and it’s more than all but 14 running backs have on the season. The Bucs are down linebacker Kwon Alexander for the year and have been without Lavonte David over the last two weeks. If he’s out again, the Panthers can do what they want, which has been featuring McCaffrey as an elite RB1. Even if David plays, McCaffrey is an elite play at the position and can be used in all formats, including cash games. The Bucs have allowed a top-eight running back in 6-of-11 games this year.
Peyton Barber: He ranks ninth in the NFL in carries (153), though it hasn’t amounted to much success (currently the RB33 in PPR formats). The Panthers face an average of just 19.1 carries per game, which ranks as the fifth-lowest in the league, and it’s part of the reason they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. There hasn’t been a running back who’s totaled more than 17 carries against them and that’s despite playing against Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, and Adrian Peterson. The last time these teams met, he totaled just 31 yards on 11 carries. Barber has scored in each of the last two games and received 18 carries in each of them, but that’s not likely to repeat in Week 13. On top of that, it seems like Ronald Jones will return, which will take away a few touches per game. Barber is just a low-end RB3 who doesn’t offer much of a ceiling in this game.
WRs
D.J. Moore: It was great to see Moore in an extended role with Funchess out last week, though we have to hope it continues regardless of Funchess’ status moving forward. He’s seen 17 targets over the last two weeks, netting 15 receptions for 248 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs cornerback trio of Carlton Davis, Javien Elliott, and Brent Grimes is among the worst in football, though Moore totaled just one catch for 16 yards against them back in Week 9. Yes, he did play a full-time role in that game, but Newton threw the ball just 25 times. Davis was knocked out of last week’s game with a knee injury, so the Bucs may be forced to play Ryan Smith in his place. This secondary is clearly hurting and has allowed 2.21 fantasy points per target to wide receivers (2nd-most in the NFL), which is large in-part to do with them allowing 17 touchdowns to them through 11 games. Moore doesn’t come without risk, but he should be played as a low-end WR2 at this point.
Devin Funchess: Is it better for the Panthers to have Funchess inactive? I kid, of course, but he clearly needs to get a lesser part of the offense moving forward. Newton’s QB Rating when throwing to Funchess is 95.3, while it’s 130.9 when throwing to Moore, and 121.0 when throwing to Samuel. His back injury could keep him out again this week, but if he does play, he’d have a great matchup against Carlton Davis or Ryan Smith (Davis is dealing with a knee injury). The issue is that he played against them healthy in Week 9 and saw six targets but totaled just four catches for 44 scoreless yards. Since firing their defensive coordinator after Week 6, the Bucs have allowed multiple top-30 wide receivers in just one game and it was the Bengals back in Week 8. Because of Moore’s emergence, Funchess becomes nothing more than a WR4, even in a plus-matchup. Update: Funchess is listed as questionable for this week’s game, though he’s expected to play.
Curtis Samuel: With Funchess out of the lineup last week, he played a season-high 54 snaps, while his previous high was 26 snaps. He saw just two targets but managed to find the end zone when he shook Shaquill Griffin out of his cleats. He’s not someone you can stick into your lineup and simply expect production, but rather someone you play as a high-risk/high-reward option. He would see Brent Grimes the most in coverage, but he moves all over the formation, so he’s not going to see any one cornerback more than 40 percent of the time. Oddly enough, since the Bucs fired their offensive coordinator after Week 6, they haven’t allowed the top three receivers and top tight end from a team to combine for any more than 48.9 PPR points against them, including none of them more than 37.9 points over the last three weeks. Samuel is a high-risk WR5 option, but he’d be more attractive if Funchess were held out.
Mike Evans: It seems he’s over his knee injury from a few weeks ago, as he’s now posted 12 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. He’ll get his rematch against James Bradberry, who held him to one catch for 16 yards on 10 targets in Week 9. That was much different than the results he’d had in previous meetings, as his four previous games against Bradberry netted an average of 10.3 targets, 5.5 receptions, 80.3 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. The weak performance earlier in the year was right at the time he was missing some practices, so Evans should be fine to plug-and-play as a low-end WR1 this week. The Panthers have been struggling in the secondary, allowing seven wide receiver touchdowns over the last four weeks and they may be without other starting cornerback Donte Jackson this week.
DeSean Jackson: After missing some practice time last week, Jackson fell to the No. 4 wide receiver in snaps once again. It’s been so up-and-down all year, but he’s someone who plays 45-60 percent of the snaps most often. His targets haven’t suffered much, though, as he’s totaled at least seven targets in four of the last five games. His efficiency is a different story, as he’s failed to top 38 yards in three of the last four games. His connection with Winston isn’t what it was with Fitzpatrick, so there’s definitely some risk involved with starting him. The Panthers held him to 2/32/0 in the first meeting (which was with Fitzpatrick), though Donte Jackson was in coverage most of that game. If he’s forced to miss this game with his quad injury, that would most definitely upgrade Jackson’s matchup because he’s the one with the speed down the field. If Donte Jackson plays, DeSean should be considered a risky WR4. If Donte Jackson sits, DeSean should be moved into low-end WR3 territory, provided he himself practices all week. Update: DeSean Jackson has been ruled OUT for this game.
Chris Godwin: Raise your hand if you’re tired of the Bucs wide receiver carousel. Godwin has played as few as 32 percent of the snaps this season, while playing as many as 72 percent in others. He’s seen four or less targets in three of his last four games, though he’s producing much more than Jackson, who’s continually involved no matter how many snaps he plays. When targeted, Godwin has caught each of the last 14 targets that have come his way for 195 yards, though he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6. There’s going to be an explosion once Godwin starts seeing real targets and if the Bucs want to avoid James Bradberry, it could come this week. He moves all over the formation, so he won’t see one cornerback more than the other, but Godwin is the definition of a risk/reward WR4 in fantasy. Fortunately, his floor has been 40 yards over the last four weeks, so he shouldn’t destroy your team even if he doesn’t see an increased role. Update: With DeSean Jackson being ruled out for this game, Godwin becomes a very attractive WR3 for the week.
Adam Humphries: Another week goes by, another rock-solid start for Humphries who now has 33 receptions for 444 yards and four touchdowns over the last seven games, which puts him as a top-15 wide receiver in that span of almost a half a season. He’ll now match-up against the team he posted 8/82/2 against just four weeks ago. The Panthers have struggled with slot receivers this year, as Captain Munnerlyn is the weakest link of the cornerbacks. Over the last four weeks, he’s allowed 16-of-22 passing for 197 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. With Donte Jackson potentially sidelined, it could put even more stress on the matchups for the Panthers secondary. It’s now been three straight games where they’ve allowed two top-36 wide receivers in a game, and Humphries might come with the safest floor of the Bucs wide receivers. He’s not going to continue scoring touchdowns at the rate he has the last four games, but he should be considered a high-floor WR4 this week in standard formats, while he’s in the WR3 conversation for PPR formats.
TEs
Greg Olsen: With McCaffrey’s emergence, we’ve seen Olsen’s decline, as he’s now totaled just 60 yards over the last three games combined. The Bucs can be the cure for his struggles, though, as they’ve now allowed 9-of-11 tight ends to finish top-12 against them. Olsen is part of that group, as he totaled 6/76/1 against them in Week 9 when he finished as the TE5 that week. Their struggles have been across the board, as they allow 5.5 receptions (7th-most) and 75.2 yards (most in NFL) per game, while they’ve allowed five touchdowns (tied for 7th) to them. In a game that has an over/under of 56.5 points, it’d be wise to have Olsen in as a TE1 this week.
Cameron Brate: This could be a battle of the tight ends, as both have a great matchup. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to the tight end position this year, thanks large in-part to do with their nine touchdowns allowed to them through 11 games. Just three teams allowed more touchdowns to tight ends in the entire 2017 season. Perhaps the craziest part is that tight ends have seen just 12 red zone targets against them, which ranks 15th in the league. They’ve allowed eight different tight ends to finish as top-12 options against them. Knowing O.J. Howard is out of the picture and that Winston is likely to throw 35-plus pass attempts in this game, Brate should be played as a rock-solid TE1 this week.
