The Primer: Week 12 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Total: 41.5
Line: HOU by 6.0

QBs
Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert: Does it even matter which quarterback starts for the Titans this week? Well, it does, but I’m referring to it for fantasy purposes. Yes, Mariota had been playing better the previous two weeks, but was bad against the Colts before he suffered his injury. They’re calling Mariota’s injury last week a ‘stinger’ and that he’s highly questionable for this Monday’s game. The Texans have not allowed a top-15 quarterback performance since way back in Week 4 to Andrew Luck, who has kind of dominated everyone. Since that game, there’s been no quarterback who’s thrown for more than one touchdown against them and knowing Mariota’s lack of pocket awareness will hurt him against the Texans pass-rush. The Titans offensive line has allowed 24 sacks over the last five games, which is more than 12 teams have on the season. Meanwhile, the Texans have at least two sacks in each of their last eight games, including five last week against the Redskins. Even if Mariota or Gabbert is able to get the ball out, the Texans have allowed just 6.64 yards per attempt, third-lowest in the NFL. Don’t start either of these quarterbacks. Update: It appears as if Mariota will start for the Titans, barring a setback. 

Deshaun Watson: Did you know that you’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time Watson threw more than 25 pass attempts? That’s why you’ve seen him total less than 240 yards passing in each of his last four games, limiting his upside. The Titans aren’t a team who’s allowed many pass attempts, either, as the 33.0 per game average ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the NFL. They finally allowed a quarterback to throw three touchdown passes against them last week, as Andrew Luck ended a nine-game streak of two or less touchdown passes. This is the second meeting between these two teams this year, and in the first meeting we saw Watson complete 22-of-32 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for another 44 yards. Oddly enough, that was Watson’s highest total of the year on the ground, and he’s totaled just 74 yards over the last five games combined. The Titans have been able to hold their opponents to 21 or less points in 7-of-10 games this year, so it’s not a week to expect a massive performance from Watson, but it’s encouraging to see that he played well against them in Week 2. The biggest reason for our concerns are the chart below, as it shows his career with and without Will Fuller, which makes him just a high-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: Once we finally come to grips that Lewis is the primary running back, he has a terrible performance. His 32 yards on 11 touches won’t do anything for his timeshare with Henry, who has now totaled 131 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries the last three weeks. The quarterback issues will leak into their production, though, make no mistake about it. The Texans have been dominant against the run this year, even if they allowed two easy touchdowns to Adrian Peterson last week. They’ve allowed just 3.50 yards per carry on the year on a large 219-carry sample size. Teams have averaged 66.0 plays per game against the Texans, so that should be considered a positive, but Henry isn’t likely to find much room against this defensive front. They’ve yet to allow a running back more than 82 yards on the ground this year. As for Lewis, there’s a little bit of hope, as they’ve allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs this year, which ranks as the second-most in the league. That’s about it, though, as they’ve allowed just 4.96 yards per target to running backs (7th-lowest), which is why they’ve allowed just 36.2 receiving yards per game to them. Henry should be considered a low-upside touchdown-dependent RB3/4 option while Lewis is just a mediocre RB3 who could be losing his grip on the larger workload.

Lamar Miller: It was good to see Miller bounce-back against the Redskins last week and total 86 yards on 20 carries, as the 21-yard rushing performance against the Broncos left a bad taste in owners mouths going into the bye week. The bad news is that the Titans are about as tough as it gets against the run, as they’ve yet to allow more than 85 yards on the ground this year, which includes Miller’s 14-carry, 68-yard performance against them in Week 2. The Titans did allow two touchdowns to the Colts last week but had allowed just three rushing touchdowns through their first nine games, so we don’t want to overreact to a very small sample size. Miller will have to get it done on the ground because not only has his quarterback lacked attempts, but the Titans have allowed just 292 receiving yards to running backs, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Miller shouldn’t be relied upon for anything more than high-end RB3 numbers this week.

WRs
Corey Davis: Here we go again… It’s maddening to watch Davis’ talent go to waste, but it’s how the cards have been dealt. After dominating Stephon Gilmore in Week 10, Davis saw just four targets that netted just two catches for 30 yards against the Colts, which was a good matchup. This matchup with the Texans is not. They’ve allowed just a 60.3 percent completion-rate, 7.27 yards per target, and a touchdown every 34.8 targets to wide receivers. All of that amounts to just 1.50 PPR points per target, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. Oddly enough, they have not allowed a single top-12 performance to a wide receiver all year long. The Texans don’t run shadow coverage on receivers, so he’ll see a mixture of Johnathan Joseph, Shareece Wright, and Kareem Jackson in coverage. While none of them are considered elite, they’ve played great as a unit due to the pressure their front-seven has created. As usual, Davis can win against them, but getting him a catchable ball is a different story. It’s hard to trust him as anything more than a high-end WR4 this week, though Mariota would be better than Gabbert.

DeAndre Hopkins: The lack of volume from Watson has bled into Hopkins’ targets over the last five games, as he has totaled eight or less targets in four of the last five games. While this may not seem significant, you need to know he saw at least 10 targets in each of the first five games. It hasn’t stopped him from performing though, as he’s scored six touchdowns in the last five games. He’s going to see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage this week, who was just roasted by T.Y. Hilton in coverage for 9/155/2. It was bad enough where the Titans may decide to go back to playing sides, but it wouldn’t matter to Hopkins, who straight-up delivers when he’s targeted. The last time these teams met, he posted 6/110/1 on 11 targets. Knowing that the Titans are likely to stuff Lamar Miller up the middle, they’re likely going to throw more than they have the last month and a half. Hopkins needs to be played as an elite WR1 in this game against a Titans secondary who’s allowed five different receivers post top-eight numbers.

Demaryius Thomas: After seeing three targets in his debut with the team, he saw just one in his second game, which has a lot to do with Coutee, who’s going to be the No. 2 target in the passing game. When you do the math, he’s the No. 3 target (at best) in an offense that averages just 31.0 attempts per game (6th-fewest). He’s also not someone who’s been a big red zone threat since his time with Peyton Manning, so you can’t even rely on those. He’s going to see Malcolm Butler in coverage, which is a great matchup, but not when you’re likely capped at 3-5 targets. He’s just a mediocre WR4/5 option until we see the Texans start to throw the ball more. Against the Titans, they really shouldn’t need to.

Keke Coutee: We didn’t know how the Texans would use Coutee with no Fuller, but it appears he’s the possession receiver over the middle of the field considering his 5.2-yard average depth of target in Week 11. It’s just one game, so it’s possible they’ll use him in different ways, but we don’t have any evidence of that just yet. Logan Ryan is the slot cornerback for the Titans and has been the lone consistent option in their secondary, as he’s allowed 22-of-33 passing for 284 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The best performance he allowed was to Julian Edelman, who was a former teammate who likely knew his weaknesses. Him and Keenan Allen were the only slot-heavy receivers who’ve totaled more than 60 yards against the Titans. Coutee should offer a solid floor knowing his role in the offense, so consider him a middling WR4 this week.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: It’s fair to say that the Titans have made Smith a much larger part of their offense since their bye week, as he’s totaled 13 targets over the last three weeks, turning them into 11 catches for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Quite different than his 5 catches for 44 yards and no touchdowns in the first seven weeks, eh? The eight targets in Week 11 was a new career-high for him, and he’ll take the momentum into a plus-matchup with the Texans who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve allowed a 73.6 percent catch-rate for 8.33 yards per target, and a touchdown every 14.4 targets to the position. The 5.3 receptions per game they allow to tight ends ranks as the 11th-most, and that’s despite a lack of competition. Of the noteworthy tight ends they’ve played, here are their totals: Rob Gronkowski 7/123/1, Jeff Heuerman 10/83/1, Eric Ebron 5/40/1, and Jordan Reed 7/71/1 just last week. While I’m not sure we’re ready to say Smith is a noteworthy tight end, he’s trending in that direction. He’s on the high-end TE2 radar, though the quarterback situation does worry me.

Ryan Griffin: I was curious to see how the Texans would handle the tight end snaps out of the bye, but nothing became any clearer. Griffin played 47 snaps, Jordan Thomas 34 snaps, and Jordan Akins 18 snaps. Even worse, Akins saw the most targets (2). Fortunately, it doesn’t matter this week, as the Titans are the best team in the league against the position. They’ve allowed just 3.6 receptions and 33.8 yards per game to tight ends, and are the only team who’s yet to allow a touchdown to them. Don’t stream a tight end from the Texans this week.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Total: 45.0
Line: CHI by 3.5

QBs
Mitch Trubisky (DOUBTFUL – pay attention for updates): It was always going to be a tough spot for Trubisky to perform against the Vikings, so it shouldn’t shock you all that much. For the most part, however, it wasn’t that bad of a game for him. While he was someone I suggested you avoided last week, you need to get over it quickly, as they’re about to play the Lions again, the team he earned NFC Player of the Week honors for in Week 10 when he threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns. There’s still a lot of maturing to do for the Bears starter, but he’s moving in the right direction. The Lions defense was without Darius Slay in Week 10, but he’s been there for most of the year where they allowed 8.96 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, which is the highest in the NFL. When teams throw the ball against them, they have success. There’s been just four quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 30 pass attempts against the Lions and here are their lines: Aaron Rodgers 442/3, Brock Osweiler 239/2, Trubisky 355/3, and Cam Newton 357/3. This game will be taking place on short rest which can affect players more than we know, but everything points to Trubisky jumping back into the QB1 conversation on Thanksgiving. Update: Trubisky is now considered doubtful for this game, as he suffered a shoulder injury late in the game against the Vikings. Because of that, he comes with more risk than most and slides down into the QB2 range even if he does play. If he sits, which seems likely, Chase Daniel would take his place, and he’s a quarterback with more knowledge in this system than most realize. He’s less appealing as they’d likely take a run-heavy approach to the game, but he’d still be on the low-end QB2 radar.

Matthew Stafford: It appears that Stafford will be without both Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson for this game, which is obviously less-than-ideal. Combine that with the fact that the Bears defense was able to maul him for six sacks two weeks ago and the outlook is grim. There were throws that could’ve been made by him against the Bears, though he was off his game while completing just 59.5 percent of his passes. The Bears have faced the sixth-most pass attempts this year but have allowed just the 19th-most yardage to quarterbacks, so Stafford will have to rely on touchdowns to carry him through. 7-of-10 quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against the Bears, but six quarterbacks have also thrown multiple interceptions, as they lead the league with 18 interceptions through 10 games. This may have been a matchup where Stafford could succeed but missing a few of his top options is worrisome. He also hasn’t topped 20 fantasy points since way back in Week 2, so the reward isn’t great enough for the risk you’re taking by starting him against the Bears. He’s just a middling QB2, though knowing that the Bears allow nothing on the ground, we could see him rack up some yardage through the air via the short passing game.

RBs
Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard: Another week goes by and another week where Howard is mediocre. The Bears are sticking with him though, and it’s likely to continue after we saw Cohen fumble the ball on a fourth-quarter carry against the Vikings. Howard has been the clock-killer for them, though all he did against the Lions in Week 10 was kill drives. That may have something to do with Damon Harrison, who has transformed the Lions run-defense up the middle. With him on the field, they allow just 2.74 yards per carry. Without him, they’ve allowed 5.63 yards per carry. He’s done massive things for the run-game, though it’s really hampered them in their pass-rush, as their sack percentage goes from 10.1 percent without him, to 2.5 percent with him. That bodes well for Cohen, who is an extension of the passing-game and doesn’t run it up the gut the way Howard does. Cohen has been somewhat underutilized in the offense as of late, as the Bears haven’t designed many screen plays to him. He’s totaled 16 targets over the last four games, which comes after his 30 targets in a three-week stretch from Week 4-7. There’s been just two running backs who’ve totaled more than 32 receiving yards against the Lions (Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey), so it’s not really a smash spot for either running back. Cohen is the preferred option due to his versatility but is more towards the high-end RB3 conversation, while Howard is a middling RB3 who needs to score in order to hit value.

LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick: Are you ready for an extra helping of Blount on Thanksgiving? He’ll bring his 2.3 yards per carry into a matchup with the Bears, who have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. We did see the Lions total 67 yards and a touchdown against them two weeks ago, but that was thanks to Kerryon Johnson, who won’t play this week. The rushing touchdown that Johnson scored against them two weeks ago was the first and only one they’ve allowed to a running back all season, which makes Blount a very unattractive option, though he could get a goal-line plunge at any point. He’s just a TD-dependent RB4. Riddick is a bit of a different story, as you have to view him as a slot receiver more than a running back. He’s now seen 22 targets over the last three weeks and it’s hard to see that changing this week. He’s one of five running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 yards through the air against the Bears, as he totaled a season-high 60 yards in Week 10 against them. Don’t be shocked to see him get a few carries in this game, too, as he totaled 17 carries for 84 yards in two games against the Bears last year. While they weren’t as dominant, they were still a top-tier run-defense. Riddick should be played as an RB3 in standard formats and as a low-end RB2 in PPR formats. If there’s a wildcard in this game, it could be Zach Zenner, who offers more three-down versatility than Blount. If you’re looking for a last-ditch option because you have no one else, he could see more work than most expect.

WRs
Allen Robinson: After lighting the Lions world on fire in Week 10, Robinson had what was likely his worst game of the season against the Vikings. It’s odd, too, because he wasn’t even shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. He wasn’t running crisp routes, stopped in routes (one that led to an interception), and even had a drop. Everyone is entitled to a bad game from time-to-time, so we’ll just move forward. The Lions got Darius Slay back from injury last week, though it didn’t stop them from allowing Cam Newton to pass for 357 yards and three touchdowns. Slay was in coverage on one of them and has now allowed five touchdowns on 45 targets in his coverage. This comes after allowing just three touchdowns on 106 targets in coverage last year, so it’s possible that he’s still trying to play through a knee injury, but it should be noted that they did remove him from the injury report. Slay is still their best cornerback, so it’s not likely that Robinson sees the eight targets or efficiency that he had against them in their last meeting. Still, the Lions do allow the most yards per target (10.6) and touchdowns per target (one every 10.5 targets) in the NFL, so it’s not a matchup you should exactly run from. Don’t be shocked if Miller and Gabriel are the stars in this one, but Robinson is still the most heavily targeted and talented, so trot him out there as a high-end WR3.

Taylor Gabriel: If you didn’t see the Bears game against the Lions in Week 10, you likely looked at the box score and noticed that Robinson and Miller both had massive games, while Gabriel totaled three targets and no catches. What you didn’t see was Gabriel just missing on a 40-plus yard touchdown. With Darius Slay out for that game, the Lions were not properly equipped to defend Robinson, leading to fewer targets for Gabriel. Slay is back for this game which will lead to more targets for Gabriel, and the Lions defense has allowed a league-high 2.31 PPR points per target to wide receivers. He’s going to match-up with Nevin Lawson, a cornerback who runs near a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has allowed at least a 104.8 QB Rating in his coverage each of the last three years. Gabriel’s speed should flash in the dome and he should be in-play as a high-upside WR4 this week.

Anthony Miller: He continues to find the end zone at an incredible rate, as he’s now scored five touchdowns on 44 targets, or one every 8.8 targets. While Miller was known to be a menace in the red zone during his time in Memphis, as he scored 32 touchdowns over his final 26 games there, he’s not going to keep catching them at this rate. Fortunately for him, the Lions present the best opportunity in the league to have it continue in Week 12. They’ve allowed a touchdown every 10.5 targets to wide receivers, which is beyond ridiculous. No other team has allowed one more than every 11.6 targets (Bucs). Not just that, but he’s got the best matchup on the field. Undrafted rookie Mike Ford and last year’s second-round bust Teez Tabor will be tasked with slowing down Miller. The issue is that they’ve allowed 23-of-26 passing for 461 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. Miller saw just three targets against the Vikings last week but had seen at least six targets in each of the previous four games. He’s on the high-end WR4 radar this week.

Kenny Golladay: With Marvin Jones out of the lineup, Golladay saw all the targets he could handle against the Panthers, as he racked up 14 of them en route to a WR1-type day with eight catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. He made a few grabs in that game that were of the highlight reel variety, and he’s shown to be one of the toughest receivers to defend in single-man coverage, which the Bears do quite often. He totaled 6/78/1 against the Bears two weeks ago, and that was in a game where Stafford was clearly off-target for much of the day. Knowing that Golladay has seen 27 targets over the last two weeks, he’s clearly a must-play. The Bears secondary will see a lot of work because they allow nothing on the ground, and it’s why you saw Stefon Diggs rack-up 13 catches last week against them. Golladay is a different receiver than Diggs, so it’s not likely to be one of those games, but he can still win against Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara. Opposing wide receivers average 23.2 targets per game against the Bears, which is the fifth-most in the league. Golladay is a borderline WR1 in this matchup.

Bruce Ellington: In his first game in a Lions uniform, Ellington played 33-of-65 snaps, but more importantly, he saw nine targets. Despite not having much time to learn the offense and develop chemistry with Stafford, he caught six balls for 52 yards against the Panthers, though that matchup was much better than the one he’ll have this week. Bryce Callahan is starting to get recognition for his play, though if you’ve watched him over the last few years, you already knew he was solid. He’s allowed a 74 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year but has limited the productivity against him due to just 7.9 yards per reception and one touchdown on 39 targets in his coverage. There are going to be targets to go around against the Bears, so he should at least deliver a 6-8-point PPR floor in this game, though there’s not much room for upside. He’s someone who you play if you’re in a 14-team PPR league and need one last bye week replacement available on the waiver wire.

TEs
Trey Burton: The questions are bound to flow in this week on whether or not owners should drop Burton, but I repeat, take a look at the tight end position this last week. Anyone who didn’t have Jordan Reed (nobody played Antonio Gates) was likely upset with their tight end’s performance. I won’t say that it’s not worrisome he’s seen just 12 targets over the last four weeks, but the production has been there, and he’s been heavily utilized in the red zone. The Lions have been a tight end-friendly defense this year, allowing 8.84 yards per target (5th-most) and a touchdown every 11.0 targets (5th-most often), though they’ve only faced an average of 5.5 targets per game, which is the fifth-fewest in the league. Burton caught all four of his targets against them in Week 10 for 40 yards, so the efficiency was there, just not the level of targets we’d hoped for. The Lions have allowed seven top-15 performances against them, but no one to finish better than the TE5 in any given week. Burton comes with upside in this offense that has so many different options, but that also leads to a lower floor than we’d like. He should still be in lineups as a low-end TE1 this week who could post top-five numbers.

Luke Willson: Despite not having Marvin Jones in the lineup, having a matchup with the team that allows the most fantasy points to tight ends (Panthers), and in a game where Stafford threw the ball 37 times, no Lions tight end was playable. Willson saw just one target but didn’t catch it, while Levine Toilolo actually played more snaps than him. It’s clear that the tight end position is an afterthought in this offense, so there’s no need to consider any of them. Not to mention the fact that the Bears have allowed just 6.07 yards per target to tight ends, the third-lowest mark in the league. If you’re paying attention, there’s nothing that says you should play a Lions tight end despite the circumstances that should have led to targets.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 40.5
Line: DAL by 7.5

QBs
Colt McCoy: If you saw what happened to Alex Smith last week, you know he’s not playing football for a long time. McCoy stepped-in and played decent enough, completing 6-of-12 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, while adding 35 yards on the ground. He’s only started four games in his Washington stint, though all of them came back in 2014, so it’s difficult to say they’ll be relative to where he is now. The Redskins are likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams once again and we know they’ll be without guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao. That’s a lot to put on McCoy, especially when he’s going against a Cowboys defense that’s still yet to allow more than two passing scores in any one game. They’ve now held 7-of-10 teams to 20 points or less (including the Falcons last week), and the most they allowed to the remaining three teams was 28 points. With limited options to throw to while on the road in a tough matchup, McCoy isn’t streamer material.

Dak Prescott: After posting 20.2 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games, Prescott struggled to get much going against the Falcons in Week 11 and finished with just 208 scoreless yards through the air, though he did run for a touchdown, eliminating a complete bust. The Redskins are a team he played just four weeks ago and finished with 273 yards passing with one touchdown, and then another 33 yards and touchdown on the ground. That was much better than the results against them last year, as he totaled just 143/0 in the first meeting and 102/2 in the second meeting on Thanksgiving. The Redskins are coming off a game in which they held mobile quarterback Deshaun Watson to 208 yards and one touchdown, though they had allowed each of the previous seven quarterbacks to throw for at least 265 yards. The bad news is that all but one of them totaled at least 35 pass attempts, a number that Prescott has hit just twice all season. The Redskins have been just a mediocre pass defense this year, but Prescott and the Cowboys are likely to employ a run-heavy gameplan against the Redskins who will be led by Colt McCoy, meaning Prescott could suffer in the volume department. That keeps him in middling QB2 territory, though he should offer a decent floor.

RBs
Adrian Peterson: The two plays that Peterson scored on last week looked nearly identical, where the Texans flooded the middle of the field, Peterson went up the gut, stuck his foot in the ground, bounced outside and walked into the end zone. The Cowboys will be without linebacker Sean Lee once again in this game, though their first-round draft pick Leighton Vander Esch has stepped-in and played well. As a unit, they’ve allowed just 3.65 yards per carry on the year, though they did allow Peterson 99 yards on 24 carries earlier this year, but it’s important to note that he didn’t score. The Cowboys have allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year, but we can’t automatically cross Peterson off because the Texans (the team he just scored twice on) had allowed just three rushing touchdowns before Peterson played them. It’s hard to imagine the Redskins a more efficient offense under McCoy and knowing the Cowboys have not allowed any running back to finish top-20 without at least 22 yards receiving, Peterson is tough to recommend as anything more than a middling to low-end RB2 this week, as he’s failed to record more than 16 receiving yards since way back in Week 5.

Ezekiel Elliott: As expected, Elliott demolished the Falcons defense for over 200 yards and a touchdown. It’ll be a much tougher matchup this week, as the Redskins are the team who held him to a season-low 33 yards on the ground back in Week 7. Not just that, but they also held him to a season-low nine yards through the air. That’s the bad news, but the good news is that the Redskins seemed to have cooled off when it comes to their tough run defense. They allowed just 417 yards on 111 carries (3.76 yards per carry) with four total touchdowns the first eight weeks but have allowed 348 yards on 67 carries (5.19 yards per carry) with three total touchdowns over the last three weeks that included just Tevin Coleman, Peyton Barber, and Lamar Miller. Now, Elliott did tag them for 150 yards and two touchdowns last year, though the Redskins front-seven wasn’t playing nearly as well at that time, but it is the same scheme on defense. One red-flag about this matchup is that they’ve allowed just one run-play to go for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the best in the NFL. This is bound to be a low-scoring affair with McCoy under center and knowing that each team allows just 61 plays per game to their opponent, it’s not a week to be too excited about many fantasy options. Elliott is likely the only one you can play and feel great about, as he’s an RB1 every week. The recent trends for the Redskins on defense make me a bit more optimistic about playing him in DFS, but you don’t have to force the issue.

WRs
Josh Doctson: He’s still stuck in that 4-7 target range, but he’s also stuck in the 31-49-yard range over the last five weeks and has still yet to reach 50 yards this season. Now going against a Cowboys defense that’s allowed just seven wide receivers to get into top-36 territory this season, it’s not a matchup to exploit. He’s also going to match-up with Byron Jones the majority of time, who has been their best cover cornerback and one who’s yet to allow a touchdown on 43 targets in coverage. Doctson could always sneak in a jump-ball touchdown, but even if he did, he’d likely wind-up with 30 yards and a score. He’s not worth the risk in your lineups as anything more than a WR5/6-type option, though you have to wonder if McCoy will throw it into tight coverage a bit more often than Smith did.

Jamison Crowder/Maurice Harris: It seems like Crowder is still a ways away from playing and it’s unlikely that four days in between games will change his status, so we have to assume Harris will take his spot in the slot once again. Harris came back down to earth this past week totaling just one catch for 13 yards on four targets. It seemed like he and Smith had a connection, though it seems unlikely to be the same with McCoy under center. The slot position is covered by Anthony Brown, who has been consistently average this year. He’s not a shut-down guy that you need to avoid, while he’s also not someone you need to target. The options are limited for McCoy, so we could see 4-6 targets, though it’s not an attractive matchup against a Cowboys team who’s allowed just seven top-36 performances all year to wide receivers. He’s just a weak WR5 option and not one who comes with much upside.

Amari Cooper: It was definitely a letdown performance against the Falcons, as Cooper saw just five targets that netted three catches for 36 yards. It was an Elliott-heavy game, which will happen to Cooper from time-to-time in this offense. Fortunately, the Redskins biggest weakness is through the air, as they’ve allowed multiple pass-catchers to rack up double-digit PPR days in each of their last nine games. Josh Norman is likely to be the one to shadow Cooper, and though he was really good at one point in his career, he’s not the guy you avoid anymore. He’s allowing a 68 percent catch-rate in his coverage, along with five touchdowns on 47 targets. Over the last month, he’s had his hands full, facing Odell Beckham (8/136/0), Julio Jones (7/121/1), Mike Evans (3/51/0), and DeAndre Hopkins (5/56/1), so Cooper isn’t anything new. The five-target game was showing he’s not automatic in the Cowboys offense, but he’s still going to be in the WR2/3 conversation more weeks than he won’t. This is likely to be a slow-paced game, making Cooper a middling WR3, though he should provide a solid floor.

Michael Gallup: Having a down week is understandable after hearing about Gallup’s situation in Week 11, and we wish nothing but the best for him and his family. He’ll be playing with a heavy heart in this game, but that will sometimes bring out the best in someone. The Redskins will almost certainly have Josh Norman following Cooper around, which would leave Gallup with Fabien Moreau, provided Quinton Dunbar doesn’t return to the lineup (been out since Week 9). Moreau was covering the slot for much of the year and doing very well but struggled a bit when asked to move to the perimeter, allowing 5-for-5 passing for 109 yards in his first game there. The Texans targeted him just once last week, so he wasn’t really tested, while Gallup has now seen at least five targets in three of his last four games. There have been 17 wide receivers who’ve posted top-36 numbers against the Redskins, so while Gallup is not a sure thing, the matchup isn’t one to run from. Put him in the low-end WR4 conversation this week.

Cole Beasley: He’s the guy you never want to completely forget about because we’ve seen him pop-up with three multi-touchdown games in the last two years. In fact, he hasn’t scored outside of those games, so it’s feast or famine with him. He’s seeing a somewhat steady flow of targets in the offense, including 35 of them over the last five games. The last time these two teams met, he was covered by Fabien Moreau, who has since had to move to the outside because of the injury to Quinton Dunbar. That means Beasley will see Greg Stroman, a seventh-round rookie who’s allowed 17-of-27 passing for 303 yards and two touchdowns this year. We have a very small sample size of what he can do, but it appears to be a matchup that Beasley can win if they choose to attack that area of the field. He totaled 7/56/0 the last time they played, so he can be kept on the radar as a high-floor WR5 option who’s worth more in PPR formats.

TEs
Jordan Reed: You would think that a starting quarterback going down would hurt the value of a tight end, but that may not be the case with Reed, who was seemingly never on the same page with Alex Smith. Ironically, he had his biggest game of the year and caught his first touchdown pass since Week 1 from McCoy. It came out prior to the game that Reed is still dealing with pain in his feet, which is never something you want to hear from a pass-catcher. Whatever the case, he said he’s learning to play through it, and his 11-target, seven-catch performance matches up with that. The Cowboys have been one to target tight ends with in PPR formats, as they’ve allowed a 75.6 percent catch-rate to them, which ranks second-highest in the NFL. Reed saw just four targets in their first meeting, hauling in two of them for 43 scoreless yards, so they weren’t tested. The completion percentage ties in to what they’ve done all year, as keep the play in front of them, and it’s also the reason they allow a league-low 9.4 yards per reception to tight ends. Consider Reed a low-end TE1 who should have a solid PPR day, though he may not provide a massive ceiling.

Blake Jarwin: The Cowboys are going to be going with a tight end by committee situation once again this week, as Geoff Swaim broke his wrist in Week 11 and will be out for multiple weeks. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter all that much because the Redskins have had D.J. Swearinger essentially removing the tight end position for opponents. They’ve still yet to allow a tight end more than 48 yards in a game and they’ve played Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Austin Hooper, Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron, and others. The 6.1 yards per target they’re allowing to the position doesn’t inspire any confidence in any of the Cowboys tight ends this week, so feel free to avoid them.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Total: 59.0
Line: NO by 13.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: Coming off his worst game since Week 1, Ryan and the Falcons will head to New Orleans to play a Saints team that just held Carson Wentz and the Eagles to just seven points in Week 11. That’s not going to happen in a divisional matchup, as these teams know each other far too well. Ryan didn’t fare too well in New Orleans last year, totaling just 288 yards and one touchdown, but he seemed to adjust well in their first meeting this year, posting 374 yards and five touchdowns. While the Saints may not be the dominant defense they were in 2017, they’ve taken strides to get back to that level in 2018, holding Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz to just 31-of-53 passing (58.4 percent) for 309 yards (5.83 yards per attempt) and one touchdown while intercepting five passes. Those teams have struggled a bit as of late, while the Falcons have been a top-10 scoring team all season. Prior to Dalton and Wentz, they had allowed 343.0 yards per game and 2.3 touchdowns per game to the combination of Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco, so we can’t automatically assume the Saints defense is completely fixed. The concern is that the Saints opponents average just 58.2 plays per game, the second-lowest in the NFL, so the game may not provide the volume that some think. Ryan is still in play as a high-end QB1 this week in a game with a 59-point total.

Drew Brees: He now has 25 touchdowns to just one interception on the season, which comes just one year after he tallied 23 touchdowns with eight interceptions over an entire 16-game season. The crazy part is that he’s thrown 36 or less passes in every game since Mark Ingram returned to the lineup, but has thrown 17 touchdowns in those six games, propping-up his fantasy totals. He’s now thrown 11 touchdowns on his last 91 passes (12.1 percent). The Falcons defense played well against the pass last week but were absolutely gashed by Ezekiel Elliott as he totaled over 200 total yards. The Saints didn’t have Ingram the last time they met when Brees tagged them for 396 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran in two touchdowns in that game, but don’t expect that to happen ever again. The Week 3 performance against the Falcons was his best fantasy games since Week 8 of 2015. They’re still allowing over a 70 percent completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt, so the matchup is just as good now as it was back then. Brees will be missing his starting left tackle once again, but the Falcons have a sack rate of just 4.8 percent, which is the fourth-lowest in the league, so it’s tough to think that’ll affect him much. Brees is an elite QB1 at home and there’s nothing about the Falcons defense that should scare you.

RBs
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: It’s now been six weeks since Coleman tallied more than 13 carries in a game and it’s not likely going to change against the Saints, who’ve allowed just 548 yards on the ground (next closest is the Bears who’ve allowed 632 yards). The 3.45 yards per carry is among the best, but it also helps that opponents average just 58.2 plays per game and 15.9 carries per game against them. That’s why we’ve yet to see a running back reach 70 yards on the ground against them, which includes Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley. Those two make up 50 percent of the running backs who’ve finished as top-20 options against them, with the other two being Latavius Murray who totaled 18 touches and scored a touchdown back in Week 8, and then Josh Adams last week. The Falcons offensive line missing multiple starters doesn’t help, but it didn’t even matter when they were healthy as Coleman totaled just 33 yards on 15 carries against them. It’s promising that he’s seen 15 targets over the last three weeks, which should keep him afloat in the low-end RB2 conversation. Smith has been tagging along but we always knew that when his touchdowns stopped, he’d be a weak option. In a game that’s projected to have plenty of scoring, it keeps him on the RB4 radar, but it’s not a matchup where many running backs have been able to succeed, let alone two of them.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: Has everyone learned to chill out with the Ingram hate by now? After everyone thought Kamara would get all the red zone touches, Ingram has out-carried Kamara in the red zone over the last two weeks (7 to 6). Last week was a blowout, but that’s what we’ve come to expect from the Saints, and even oddsmakers have taken notice, making them 13-point favorites in a divisional game against the Falcons. Here’s the stat I used on the Falcons last week (updated after Ezekiel Elliott‘s game last week): Of the eight running backs who’ve seen at least 13 touches against them, they’ve all totaled at least 18.2 PPR points and finished as a top-12 running back. They’ve allowed 4.89 yards per carry (sixth-highest), 14 total touchdowns (fourth-most), and 17.6 PPR points per week through the air to running backs (2nd-most). As you can see, they don’t have much of a strength against the Saints running backs and it’s why we saw Kamara set a record against them back in Week 3 with 20 receptions (most ever by a running back). Coming off a week where his usage was limited, Kamara should be in-line for a massive workload and is a top-three play this week. Ingram has a bit more wear on his tires over the last two weeks, so the Saints could go back to using Kamara a bit more with them playing on a short week. Ingram still needs to be played as a borderline RB1 due to the way this offense is moving right now. Some will be concerned about linebacker Deion Jones potentially returning, and while that would help, it’s not enough to scare you off this dynamic duo.

WRs
Julio Jones: He’s now posted at least 104 yards in five straight games and six of his last seven. Did you hear that he’s scored in three straight games? So much for the whole “Julio doesn’t score touchdowns,” eh? He’ll likely be matched-up with Marshon Lattimore this week, who held him to a 5/96/0 line in Week 3, though it was actually a little bit worse than that, as Jones caught a 58-yard bomb late in the game when the Saints moved Lattimore over to cover Ridley due to him going off for three touchdowns in that game. In two matchups against Lattimore last year, Jones totaled 5/98/0 and 7/149/0, so it’s fair to say that Jones can still put up elite numbers in a tough spot. Lattimore hasn’t been immune to giving up big games, either, as we’ve seen Stefon Diggs post 10/119/1 and Mike Evans post 7/147/1 against him this year. Jones needs to be plugged-in as a middling WR1 who may not extend his touchdown streak, but he offers a fantasy floor that other receivers drool over.

Calvin Ridley: Remember when Ridley had his breakout 146-yard, three-touchdown game? Well, that was against the Saints. The secondary has changed since then, as they added Eli Apple to the secondary to replace Ken Crawley, the guy Ridley burned over and over. Since coming to the Saints, Apple has allowed 18-of-26 passing for 251 yards and two touchdowns. He’s played much better the last two weeks, but it’s important to note that he saw a lot of Alex Erickson and Nelson Agholor, so it’s not as if he’s been tested. The Falcons are likely to attack this matchup once again, making Ridley an upside WR3 who has disappointed as of late, but touchdown regression was always going to happen. If you’re stuck deciding between Ridley and another wide receiver in the low-end WR3 range, he should probably be your choice.

Mohamed Sanu: It’s been a good couple of weeks for P.J. Williams, the cornerback who’ll be tasked with covering Sanu this week. He’s held Tyler Boyd to 3/65/0 and Golden Tate to 5/48/0 the last two weeks, though they were targeted just eight times against Williams. The Saints treated Boyd like he was A.J. Green, bracketing coverage and bringing a safety down to help at times. With the Falcons, they cannot do that with Jones and Ridley out on the perimeter. Sanu totaled four catches for 36 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting, though that was when they still had Patrick Robinson covering the slot for them and were mixing Williams in with Ken Crawley on the perimeter. Bottom line, it’s a plus-matchup for Sanu who appears to be over his hip injury, as he’s now seen 14 targets over the last two weeks. He’s posted at least 45 yards in six of the last seven games, so trot him out there as a relatively safe WR4 against the Saints.

Michael Thomas: Another week goes by and another week where Thomas is over a 90 percent catch-rate. The fact that he would catch 9-of-10 targets on average is simply insane. Just as a gauge, the average catch-rate for wide receivers last year was 58.7 percent. The highest catch-rate of someone with at least 30 targets in 2017 was Golden Tate at 76.7 percent. Now going against a team who has no clear-cut No. 1 cornerback, and as a team has allowed a 64.2 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, it’s not likely to drop very significantly, if at all. In their Week 3 meeting he caught all 10 of his targets for 129 yards, though he didn’t score. There have been five wide receivers who have posted top-eight numbers against them, including six receivers to hit the 100-yard mark, and five receivers who totaled at least eight receptions. Thomas is an elite WR1 play every week and this game is no different.

Tre’Quan Smith: After many moved on, Smith erupted against the Eagles totaling 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. We talked about him a lot here last week and how he had been playing as many snaps as Thomas, but that he just wasn’t being targeted in those gameplans for whatever reason. With Thomas seeing just four targets and Kamara seeing just one target, it obviously opened up a lot of opportunity for him in a plus-matchup. Those games will happen from time-to-time, but don’t get comfortable with him as an every-week start knowing that he’s third (at best) in the pecking order for a team that’s passing the ball just 28.8 times per game with Ingram in the lineup. That’s why he saw just seven targets in the previous three games. The Falcons secondary isn’t one where they’ll need to target Smith heavily, as Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram all have plus-matchups. The Eagles legitimately doubled Thomas last week on most plays, which is why Smith went off the way he did. The Falcons don’t do this with opponents. Of the six receivers who’ve gone for 100-plus yards against the Falcons, three were clear-cut No. 1 receivers while the other three were slot receivers. Smith isn’t either of those, making him just a high-risk/high-reward WR4-type option this week.

TEs
Austin Hooper: His game last week fit in with what the Falcons have done all season. Exploit bad matchups all over the field, and despite Zach Ertz destroying the Cowboys, they’d been great against tight ends. The Saints are another team you want to avoid with tight ends, as they’ve been straight-up dominant against them. There’s still yet to be a tight end who’s scored 8.0 PPR points against them this year, which includes Ertz, who they just held to just two catches for 15 yards. Hooper shouldn’t be on your streaming radar as anything more than an emergency TE2 in Week 12 and shouldn’t even be used in tournaments.

Ben Watson: What in the world happened to Watson last week? He didn’t see a single target while backup Josh Hill saw a season-high four targets. If we look closer, Watson’s snap counts have been dropping rather quickly, as he played 50-80 percent of the snaps in Weeks 1-7 but has dropped down to 26-46 percent over the last four weeks. This is an issue in an offense that’s got limited attempts to go around. He’s totaled just four targets over those last four weeks, making him almost unplayable. The fact that Brees is throwing touchdowns at such an incredible rate makes him somewhat of an option, but you have to understand the risk you’re taking. If you think you’re being swift by playing Hill, he’s played similar snaps all year (55-70 percent) and has not popped in fantasy. It’s best to avoid this situation outside of tournaments where either of them can catch two touchdowns at any time. Just know that the Falcons have allowed just three tight end touchdowns all season and rank as a bottom-12 matchup for tight ends.

Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.