The Primer: Week 12 Edition (Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 9.5

QBs
Tom Brady: There’s been two games this year where Brady has finished with less than 13.7 fantasy points and both games were against his former coaches, Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel. You have to approach Brady differently this year anyway, as he’s lacking the upside he’s shown in years past. I’ve mentioned this stat before, but here’s an updated version: There have been 86 different occasions where a quarterback has posted 21.9 or more fantasy points this season (average of 8.6 per week). Brady has just one of those games. Getting Gronkowski back healthy will most definitely help, though it may not help him get into elite territory against the Jets this week. Brady has played in New York five times over the last five years and has posted these lines (most recent first): 257/2/1, 286/2/0, 231/1/1, 182/1/1, and 228/0/1. While teams change, and players change, the Jets defense has taken strides in the right direction while Brady has trended down, naturally. The Jets may have allowed 41 points to the Bills, but their defense has been solid this year, holding quarterbacks to 7.1 yards per attempt (8th-lowest) and a 62.2 percent completion-rate (4th-lowest). Andrew Luck was the only one who threw for more than two touchdowns against them, and even he threw three interceptions. Brady is still in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 conversation, but he should no longer be considered a must-play. Update: Brady is listed as questionable for the game with a knee injury and illness that caused him to miss practice on Friday. They’re expecting him to play, but it’s an added level of risk to the quarterback. 

Josh McCown/Sam Darnold: We don’t know who will start for the Jets in Week 12 but knowing that Darnold was still held out of practice on Monday, we’ll assume it’s McCown, though it’s not as if it matters much. McCown was terrible against the Bills completing just 50 percent of his passes while throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. The Patriots have allowed four different quarterbacks throw for 300-plus yards against them and have also allowed 7-of-10 quarterbacks throw for multiple touchdowns. A large part of that is due to the 39.3 pass attempts they see per game, which ranks as the third-most in the league. They’ve allowed just a 60.8 percent completion-rate (third-lowest in the league) to opponents, which doesn’t bode well for McCown/Darnold, who have combined to complete just 54.5 percent of their attempts. The Patriots are likely to win the game (as evidenced by the spread), so we may see plenty of pass attempts out of McCown, but judging by his surrounding cast and Week 10 performance, it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a low-end QB2. Update: McCown is starting for the Jets with Darnold out.

RBs
Sony Michel and James White: Even though Michel was back on the field against the Titans, the bye week likely came at the perfect time with his knee injury still healing. The matchup doesn’t get much better, either, as the Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns to running backs in three of their last four games, including the first two of LeSean McCoy‘s season in Week 10. Some may wonder if the Jets spent the bye week working on and game-planning against the run, but that would mean they’re overlooking Brady, so unlikely. Running backs have totaled 286 touches against the Jets, which ranks as the ninth-most in the league and the Patriots are favored by nearly 10 points. Michel should be played as a low-end RB1 who should have a big game. White went back to his pass-catching role with Michel back, though the matchup against the Titans just wasn’t clicking for the Patriots offense. The Jets have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs, but they’ve also faced the ninth-fewest targets. Because of that, no running back has totaled more than five catches, so while White is still a must-play, he’s more in the middling RB2 conversation this week.

Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire: It’s difficult to take too much from the Jets blowout in Week 10, but we’ve now seen McGuire on the field for two weeks and he’s out-snapped Crowell 68-42, though Crowell has still out-touched him 23-19. The gap is certainly small, though, so don’t be surprised if McGuire is the back to own moving forward. Against the Patriots, he should be the preferred option, as they’ve been a bit more susceptible to pass-catching backs than early-down workhorses. Their opponents average a rather-high 66.1 plays per game which has led to 27.4 touches per game to the running back position, including 6.0 receptions per game, which is where McGuire has the clear edge, as he’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, while Crowell saw just four of them. Another reason to dislike Crowell is that a lot of his yardage this year has come on big plays, as 51.3 percent of his yardage has come on just seven carries. The Patriots have allowed just six carries that have gone for 20-plus yards (9th-fewest) and no carries that have gone for 40-plus yards. Crowell does get goal-line opportunities, so he’s still on the low-end RB3 radar, but McGuire is the slightly safer play this week, especially in PPR formats.

WRs
Josh Gordon: Coming off the Titans game where he was limited to just four catches for 81 yards on 12 targets, the Gordon/Brady connection will try to get back on track against the Jets this week. Fortunately, Gordon will match-up against Morris Claiborne most of the game, and that’s not what we’d consider a brutal matchup. Claiborne has allowed just a 48 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, but he’s also allowed 14.2 yards per reception. Over the course of Claiborne’s seven-year career, there’s been plenty of ups and downs, as the QB Rating when targeting him has ranged from 63.0 to 121.5. He’s unpredictable week-over-week, though he’s definitely flashed at times. Teams have had so much success attacking the slot that Claiborne hasn’t been challenged a ton, but knowing Gordon has seen 21 targets over the last two games tells us that he’ll be tested here. You should put Gordon into your lineup as a low-end WR2 who comes with some upside if Claiborne has an off-day and Brady gets over his struggles in New York.

Julian Edelman: After tweaking his ankle in the Week 10 loss to the Titans, it appears that Edelman will be back in the lineup against the Jets. That’s great for his owners, as the Jets have been continually destroyed by slot receivers this year. The combination of Buster Skrine and Perry Nickerson has allowed 56-of-73 passing for 640 yards and five touchdowns in their coverage alone. Here’s a list of slot-heavy receivers by week against the Jets:

It’s been a matchup to exploit, to say the least. I’ll come back and update his notes if he misses practice, but as of now, Edelman needs to be started as a high-end WR2.

Robby Anderson: He should be back this week after missing two of the last three games, though he’ll be returning to a matchup with Stephon Gilmore. That’s been extremely bad for most players, though Corey Davis played well against him in Week 10. Anderson has seen more than six targets just once all year and has topped 44 yards just once all year, so knowing that he’ll match-up with Gilmore is bad news. On the year, he’s allowed just a 46 percent catch-rate in his coverage and just 5.91 yards per target. We do know that Anderson and McCown have a connection, but the matchup just doesn’t add up here. Of the 14 wide receivers who’ve finished as top-40 options against the Patriots, every one of them totaled at least five targets and 12 of them saw at least seven targets. Anderson should be considered a boom-or-bust WR5 who does benefit from McCown under center. Update: Anderson practiced just once this week and may have a limited role in the offense this week even if he does play. 

Jermaine Kearse/Quincy Enunwa: Despite his lackluster performances week-over-week, the Jets have continued to put Kearse in the slot, as he ran 78 percent of his routes there in Week 10 while Enunwa was there on just 29.7 percent of his routes. He’s got the best matchup on the field against Jonathan Jones this week, as he’s allowed 396 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets in coverage this year with 226 of the yards coming after the catch, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. The issue? Kearse averages just 2.9 yards after the catch, which is in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Only if the Jets had someone who was good in the slot and a monster after the catch… Oh yeah, Enunwa has averaged 8.7 yards after the catch and has dominated when he’s played in the slot. If the Jets offensive coordinator woke up during the bye week, Enunwa would be in the slot. Kearse is a weak WR5 no matter what, but Enunwa is a dark-horse sleeper this week who you may want to throw in a few tournament lineups.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski: It appears as if Gronkowski will play in Week 12, though the matchup doesn’t get much worse against the Jets. They’ve trusted Jamal Adams in coverage and he’s been every bit worth of the top-10 draft pick the Jets used on him. There’s been just one tight end who’s totaled more than three catches or 36 yards against him this year and it was Eric Ebron who posted four catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. As you can probably imagine, the Jets have allowed the fewest yards (309) to the tight end position this year, though their schedule has been relatively easy, and they’ve faced a league-low 45 targets. While everyone wants to pretend that Gronkowski is useless now, he’s still totaled at least 43 yards in each of his last five games, including 75 or more in two of them. There have been just 40 games this year where a tight end has totaled 75 or more yards and Gronkowski has three of them. If he’s on my team, I’m going to play him as a TE1 and have no regrets, even in a bad matchup on paper.

Chris Herndon: If there’s someone on the Jets who has a very enticing matchup, it’s Herndon. He’s now seen 19 targets over the last five weeks, and though that’s not a crazy amount, his efficiency cannot be denied. He’s turned those targets into 14 receptions for 210 yards and three touchdowns. Now he goes into a matchup with the Patriots, who have faced an average of 8.2 targets per game to tight ends, allowing 62.1 yards per game with seven touchdowns (second-most) in the process. They’ve now allowed 7-of-10 tight ends to finish as top-15 options, including two actual TE1 performances to Eric Ebron (9/105/2) and Trey Burton (9/126/1). The lack of competency out of his quarterbacks is worrisome, but he’s overcome that in worse matchups than this. He’s a high-end TE2 and someone who should be considered a decent streamer this week.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 45.0
Line: LAC by 12.0

QBs
Josh Rosen: He completed just nine passes against the Raiders, though three of them were for touchdowns. He’s been a mixed-bag as a rookie, flashing at times, while looking lost at others. He’s completed just 54.8 percent of his passes, including less than 58 percent in each of his last four games. He’s also thrown nine interceptions in his last five games, and that’s despite throwing the ball just 33.8 times per game. The Chargers aren’t going to be a cakewalk, either, as they’ve been one of the best defenses against the pass since Week 4, and they welcomed defensive end Joey Bosa back last week. Since allowing three touchdowns to Jared Goff in Week 3, they’ve allowed just seven passing touchdowns in the following seven games. They also haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer in that time, which is why we’ve seen just one quarterback finish as a top-18 option against them in that time. It was Russell Wilson, who rushed for 41 yards, which is essentially an extra passing touchdown. Rosen shouldn’t be considered in any format you can help it, as his team is projected for just 16.5 points in this game.

Philip Rivers: He just continues posting multiple touchdowns, as he just did it for the 10th straight time this season against the Broncos last week. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since way back in Week 4, but something needs to be said for his consistency. The Cardinals are going to put him to the test, though, as they’ve allowed a league-low 12 passing touchdowns this season and an average of just 237.6 passing yards per game. Their opponents have averaged 67.7 plays per game, so it’s not as if they’re lacking opportunity. It helps that they’ve generated a 9.35 sack percentage, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. Heck, they even held Patrick Mahomes to just 249 yards and two touchdowns while at home. No quarterback has finished better than the QB10 against them, eliminating tournament-winning upside for Rivers. He’s just a middling QB2 and not one you must play.

RBs
David Johnson: We’re now three weeks into the Byron Leftwich play-calling regime and it’s been massive for Johnson’s fantasy value. He’s now totaled 74 touches over the last three weeks (24.7 per game) compared to 126 touches over the first seven games (18.0 per game). He only saw three targets in Week 11, but having known Rosen threw the ball just 20 times, it’s actually a good amount. The Chargers are coming off a game in which they allowed the Broncos to rush for 102 yards and three touchdowns, which matched what they’d allowed over the first nine games combined. It doesn’t help that they lost defensive tackle Corey Liuget early in the game, as he’s one of the better interior defenders against the run. After losing linebacker Denzel Perryman the prior week, the Chargers are likely going to be an easier matchup going forward. They’ve already allowed 4.48 yards per carry and 7.86 yards per target to running backs, but the issue is that teams haven’t had much of an opportunity to run against them, as they’ve faced just 19.5 carries per game. There are just two teams who have allowed more fantasy points through the air to running backs, though, and we know Johnson is gamescript-proof, so he should be somewhat immune to the negative gamescript. There have been just four running backs who’ve totaled 18 or more touches against them, and their finishes were RB2, RB8, RB11, and RB22. Johnson should be plugged-in as a middling RB1 this week.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Whew, Gordon is a man on a mission and is running as well as anyone in the NFL. He’s now totaled at least 15 carries in 8-of-9 games and has seen at least four targets in all nine games. So, that amounts to a 19 carry/target floor, and when you add in a matchup against the Cardinals, he’s obviously a must-play. The Cardinals opponents average a league-high 28.7 carries per game against them, and to explain how insane that volume is, there are just seven teams in the league who allow more touches per game to running backs. It should come as no shock that the Cardinals have also faced the most red zone touches (60) through 10 games. Despite totaling the 21st-most attempts (18) in the red zone, Gordon has totaled the fourth-most points in that area of the field. The odd part is that Gordon has still yet to see 20 carries in a game this year, so we could see more Ekeler than we have in weeks past. Knowing all the volume going around in a matchup against the team who’s allowed the third-most points per game to running backs, and Gordon is an elite RB1. As for Ekeler, he should be playable as a high-end RB4 in this game who could see somewhere in the range of 10-12 touches. Update: This is one we didn’t think we had to worry about, but Gordon is now a legitimate game-time decision after being listed with hamstring/knee injuries. In a game that the Chargers should be able to win rather easily, they could decide to rest him. It’s an afternoon game, which leads to more problems. We’ll hope to get some clarity early on Sunday morning. Should he be ruled out, Ekeler would become a must-play high-end RB2. Even if he’s active, this likely means that Ekeler is in for a bigger role and is in the RB3 conversation. 

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: He scored two touchdowns last week, but all that did was mask what’s a slippery slope while playing in this offense. He’s seen 14 targets the last two weeks, but they’ve netted just eight receptions for 73 yards. Without those touchdowns, we’d be having a different conversation. Still, he’s got four touchdowns in the last four games, so it’s clear that he’s become a favorite of Rosen’s in the red zone. The Chargers have Desmond King covering the slot and he’s been playing a prevent position all season, as he’s allowed a very-high 82.6 percent catch-rate in his coverage but has limited the production to just 8.7 yards per reception and one touchdown on 46 targets. Just last week, we saw veteran slot-man Emmanuel Sanders total just four catches for 56 yards against them. Knowing that this is likely a negative gamescript for the Cardinals, we should see the targets rise for Fitzgerald, so he’s still on the WR3 radar, but the matchup isn’t as good as some think.

Christian Kirk: Here’s my notes on Kirk last week: The Raiders have allowed more big passing plays (40-plus yards) than all but one team (Bucs), so there’s always that possibility that Kirk catches a long touchdown. Still, you really shouldn’t bank on that, making him a middling WR5 this week. Well, everything was right, but apparently I should’ve banked on that long touchdown, as Kirk hauled in a 59-yard touchdown, but had just two catches for 18 yards the rest of the game. His targets have declined due to Fitzgerald, but he’s seen at least six targets in four of his last five games, so he can still be relevant. The issue is that he’ll see a lot of Casey Hayward in this game, who just happens to be a Pro Bowler. He’s allowed just a 56.8 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but has allowed a rather-high 15.0 yards per reception. The matchup is definitely below-average, so Kirk shouldn’t be played as anything more than a WR4/5-type option, though he should present somewhat of a solid floor, as he’s totaled at least three catches and 42 yards in five of the last six games.

Keenan Allen: Go figure, I’ve been the one saying that Allen would have a tremendous second-half of the season, but completely whiffed on his projection last week against the Broncos. He’s now seen 31 targets over the last three weeks and has accumulated 21 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns. It’s happening again. The Cardinals are a team who’ve been demolished by slot wide receivers, as they’ve asked Budda Baker to cover them, though he missed last week with a knee injury. The Cardinals have struggled as a team covering the slot, as they’ve allowed 66-of-79 passing for 668 yards and four touchdowns. This is where I tell you that Allen runs over half his routes from the slot. It’s possible the Chargers run away with this game, but if there’s one receiver you know you can trust, it’s Allen. He should be played as a low-end WR1 this week.

Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams: If you didn’t read the Allen notes, you should, because a lot of the production the Cardinals have allowed to wide receivers has come through the slot. The Williams’ don’t play in the slot very often, which means they’ll each see Patrick Peterson and Bene Benwikere, who have both been phenomenal in coverage this year. When playing either of these receivers, you’re looking for a touchdown, but the Cardinals have allowed just 12 passing touchdowns all year with just eight of them going to wide receivers. They’re one of 13 teams who’s allowed less than 8.0 yards per target to wide receivers, so yardage doesn’t even make sense. There’s a lot of risk in both of them this week, so Tyrell should be considered just a mediocre WR5, while Mike is just an emergency WR6 who can snag a touchdown at any time.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: There’s been two times where I’ve relied upon Seals-Jones for a useable fantasy performance. Last year, in Week 16, the fantasy championship of one of my leagues (injury forced it), and last week in most of my DFS lineups. In those games, he totaled just one catch for five yards. Sigh… The matchup was right last week, as was his usage the previous two weeks, but he suddenly went from 68 percent of the snaps the previous two weeks under Leftwich, to just 38.9 percent of the snaps in Week 11. Maybe he was punished for a holding penalty that reversed a long David Johnson touchdown run. He’s now going into a matchup with the Chargers, who have allowed a league-low 5.69 yards per target to the tight end position. Knowing that Jermaine Gresham totaled more snaps than him last week, it’s clear you should stay away until we know if his reduced snap-count is a trend.

Antonio Gates: After playing just 11, 16, and 13 snaps in the previous three games with just three catches for 29 yards in all three games combined, Gates played 25 snaps and racked up five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. As if the tight end position wasn’t hard enough to predict as is, now we have 38-year-old Antonio Gates delivering a top-five performance. It’s hard to say that he’s an option going forward, as 25 snaps aren’t even that many, but getting targeted every 3.6 snaps is ridiculous. The Broncos have been a good matchup for tight ends and it made sense that someone would produce, but Virgil Green would’ve made more sense since he has played many more snaps. The Cardinals have allowed just 10.6 yards per reception to tight ends and have allowed just three touchdowns to the position all year, so it’s not a good time to expect a repeat performance from Gates. He’s someone I’d feel comfortable leaving on waiver wires.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Total: 46.5
Line: PIT by 3.0

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: After looking like complete trash through the first three quarters, Roethlisberger brought the Steelers back in the fourth quarter and managed to deliver a top-eight performance. He’s now scored at least 14.9 fantasy points in each of his last nine games, including six with 20 or more points. The Broncos just played against another aging veteran in Philip Rivers and allowed him to throw for 401 yards and two touchdowns. Their secondary just isn’t playing very well right now while they’ve tried to get their run-defense back intact. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes finish as the QB5, Deshaun Watson as the QB10, and Rivers as the QB8. Each of them was able to throw for at least 8.9 yards per attempt and throw two touchdowns, which bodes well for Roethlisberger who has thrown the ball at least 36 times in 8-of-10 games this year. For whatever reason, the Broncos released starting cornerback Adam Jones this week. It’s also very questionable if starting cornerback Bradley Roby plays, as he suffered a concussion in Week 11. There’s always the risk of ‘Road Roethlisberger’ but he’s been much better this year, so he’s got to be in the low-end QB1 conversation this week with the way the Broncos are struggling and the injuries they’re currently dealing with.

Case Keenum: Remember when the Steelers were considered a matchup to target? Yeah, not anymore. Did you know that no quarterback has finished better than the QB18 against them since Week 4? Over the first four weeks, they allowed 324.3 yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game, but have since allowed just 204.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. That’s more along the lines of Keenum’s typical game, as he’s thrown just 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through 10 games. Losing Demaryius Thomas surely didn’t help, as he’s completed just 60.8 percent of his passes over the last two weeks for just 6.7 yards per attempt and one touchdown. If you’ve debated starting Keenum this week, it’s best to just walk away from the computer for a bit.

RBs
James Conner: So, Conner waited until there was no chance for Le’Veon Bell to return to have his worst game of the season? He totaled just 49 total yards against the Jaguars, but should’ve had much more, as he dropped two passes, one of which would’ve been the game-winning touchdown. Everyone is entitled to a bad game here and there, so we’ll chalk this one up to that, though it’s worrisome that he didn’t have a great game against Panthers the prior week, either. Ever since the Broncos allowed back-to-back 200-yard games in Weeks 5-6, they’ve gotten things together against the run. Over the last four weeks, they’ve held every team of running backs to less than 100 rushing yards and haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown in that time. Keep in mind they played against David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon in that time. They have allowed some production through the air, as the 7.52 yards per target ranks as the fifth-most in the league. Will Conner work his way back into the circle of trust with Roethlisberger? He’ll have to in this matchup in order to live up to his RB1 status most weeks. He’s more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this game until we see him bounce back from his recent struggles.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: There was a big development last week with the Broncos, as Lindsay and Freeman combined for 23 of the 24 running back touches, as Devontae Booker was the odd man out with one touch. That would seem to indicate they’re moving forward with a two-man rotation, though it could’ve just been a one-off situation. The Steelers have looked like a different team against the run the last two weeks, as they’d allowed just 702 total yards (87.8/game) and six total touchdowns to running backs over the first eight games, but have allowed a massive 357 total yards (178.5/game) and four touchdowns the last two weeks to the Panthers and Jaguars offenses. They didn’t have a major injury in that time, so what gives? Meanwhile, Lindsay and Freeman are running behind an offensive line that’s missing three starters on the offensive line, both guards and the center. The Steelers have still allowed just 3.75 yards per carry on the year, so we shouldn’t overreact to a few bad games, but Lindsay has now scored four touchdowns in the last four games. He should be considered a locked-in RB2 until proven otherwise, though his upside is capped by Freeman who has been money on the goal-line. The Steelers have yet to allow multiple rushing touchdowns in a game, so you’re likely only going to get one usable performance from these two, making Freeman a risky high-end RB4.

WRs
Antonio Brown: Matchup. Proof. He’s now scored a touchdown in eight straight games and is about to go up against a defense that is likely starting Tramaine Brock and Isaac Yiadom on the perimeter in three-wide sets. The Broncos cut Adam Jones for some reason, while Bradley Roby is in the concussion protocol. Even if Roby plays, he’s been one to target in matchups this year as he’s allowed 14.4 yards per reception and a touchdown every 14.0 targets in his coverage. Brock is a nine-year veteran who’s been mediocre his entire career. We’ve seen Sammy Watkins, Robby Anderson, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods go for 100-plus yards against the Broncos, and then there was Keenan Allen‘s nine-catch, 89-yard, one-touchdown performance last week. With the Broncos stopping the run so well as of late, Brown should see eight-plus targets in a plus-matchup. As usual, he’s an elite WR1 who’s in play for cash lineups as well.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Unfortunately, Smith-Schuster is going to see the most of Chris Harris Jr. this week. We saw Keenan Allen win his matchup against him last week, so he’s not untouchable, but prior to that game, he’d yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. In fact, he hadn’t allowed more than 47 yards in a game until then, and that’s despite being targeted 53 times this year. We’ve even seen Harris start moving to the perimeter, which means Smith-Schuster may not get much of a break when they move him around. The Broncos haven’t allowed multiple top-30 receivers in any game this year, and it’s important to note that they’ve played the Chiefs twice and Rams once. Smith-Schuster is just a middling WR2 this week who may let you down.

Emmanuel Sanders: Similar to Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, it’s likely that Sanders benefited from another top receiver on his team. With Demaryius Thomas out of town, Sanders has totaled just 6/47/0 and 4/56/0 in the two games, though they were two semi-tough matchups. He’s still running 58 percent of his snaps from in the slot, which is a good thing against the Steelers, because it means he’ll miss out on Joe Haden‘s shadow coverage. He’ll still have a tough matchup with Mike Hilton in the slot, but it’s not as bad as Sutton’s matchup. Of the slot receivers who’ve played against the Steelers, we haven’t seen any top 74 yards, but we have seen four of them score touchdowns, including two to Boyd back in Week 6. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time a team totaled more than 229 passing yards against the Steelers, so it’s tough to see Sanders as anything more than a high-end WR3.

Courtland Sutton: Through two weeks into the No. 1 role on the team, we’ve seen Sutton catch three passes in each game while totaling 57 and 78 yards. For someone who is recommended as a top-30 receiver by many analysts, it’s odd that he’s yet to haul in more than three receptions or six targets in any one game. He’s caught at least one 20-plus yard pass in 8-of-10 games helping his fantasy floor, but against Joe Haden, it’ll be tough. He’s allowed just a 55 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year for just 10.5 yards per reception, which amounts to just 5.81 yards per target. He’s also allowed just one touchdown on 58 targets, so it’s tough to even rely on Sutton hauling in his third touchdown of the season. Until we see him utilized a bit more in the offense, Sutton should be considered a mediocre WR4.

TEs
Vance McDonald: It’s a really odd season for tight ends, because even though he’s missed a game and topped 68 yards just once this season, he currently sits as the No. 11 tight end in PPR formats. He’s seen less than four targets just twice but has seen more than six targets just once. He’s scored in each of the last two games and now has a matchup with the Broncos, who just got done allowing 38-year-old Antonio Gates five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Outside of Travis Kelce twice, their competition has been really weak, but it hasn’t stopped them from allowing seven tight ends to rack up at least 49 yards against them. The 14.5 yards per reception they allow ranks as the most in the NFL, which bodes well for McDonald, who has averaged at least 12.6 yards per reception in five of his six seasons in the league. With James Conner struggling to do much on the ground the last two weeks and the Broncos recent surge against the run, we could see McDonald finish as a top-10 option this week. Start him as a middling to low-end TE1.

Jeff Heuerman: After many wanted to fully trust Heuerman after his 11-target game against the Texans in Week 9, they came back down to earth in Week 11 after he totaled five targets against the Chargers, which netted four catches for 20 yards. Despite having his bye in Week 10, he’s still seen the seventh-most targets among tight ends over the last four weeks. Knowing he’s seen at least five targets in each of his last three games does make him attractive and though the Steelers overall numbers against tight ends look bad, they’ve really improved throughout the year. After allowing four top-10 tight ends in the first five weeks, they haven’t allowed any since that time. The competition has been relatively weak in that time, but are we at the point where we don’t include Heuerman in that conversation? The 58 receptions they’ve allowed to tight ends ranks seventh in the league, so Heuerman should deliver a decent floor in PPR formats, but it’s tough to say he’s a top-12 option with the way the Steelers have played lately. He’s in the high-end TE2 conversation this week, though his upside is a bit capped.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 51.0
Line: IND by 9.0

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It’s official, Tannehill is back under center against the Colts this week. After watching Brock Osweiler fail to throw a touchdown for three straight weeks, this was always going to happen provided Tannehill was healthy. The Colts aren’t as good of a matchup that we thought they’d be this year, as they’ve played well as a unit. They’d been struggling to get much of a pass-rush the last few weeks, but they even got that right in Week 11, racking up five sacks against the Titans. They have allowed a 72 percent completion rate to quarterbacks, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league, which should provide Tannehill with some safer short throws to build some confidence. Most forget that he started the season very well, completing 73 percent of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns on just 74 attempts in the first three games. The issue is his lack of pass-catchers, as the receiving corps doesn’t quite look the same. The Colts have had a very light schedule over the last two months, playing Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold, so maybe they’re not as good as we think, but it’s best to give Tannehill a week back before trusting him as a streamer. In 2QB leagues, he’s not the worst low-end QB2.

Andrew Luck: It’s now seven weeks straight where Luck has thrown for three-plus touchdowns, which ranks third all-time behind Peyton Manning (eight games) and Tom Brady (10 games). The crazy part is that he’s done it in each of the last four games despite not throwing the ball more than 31 times. Remember, this is the Dolphins defense that allowed Deshaun Watson five touchdowns on Thursday night football a few weeks back. Since the start of Week 4, they’ve allowed Tom Brady 274/3, Andy Dalton 248/1, Mitch Trubisky 316/3, Matthew Stafford 217/2, Deshaun Watson 239/5, Sam Darnold 229/0, and Aaron Rodgers 199/2. Five of those seven quarterbacks threw the ball 31 times or less (only Brady and Darnold didn’t), so it’s fair to say they’ve been struggling. They’ve only generated a sack on 5.0 percent of dropbacks (5th-lowest), which isn’t good when you realize that Luck has been not been sacked since Week 5. Crazy, right? The Dolphins have 15 interceptions on the year, which ranks as the second-most in the league, but that’s the only real warning sign about this matchup but knowing how well Luck is playing even in tough matchups, you’re definitely not worried about him against the Dolphins at home. He’s a high-end QB1 until he gives up the crown.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: Did the bye week change anything with the timeshare between these two? We can only hope so, as Gore totaled 36 touches in the two weeks before the bye, while Drake totaled just 17 touches. The move to Tannehill isn’t a great one for Drake, as he hadn’t seen more than four targets in 4-of-5 games, while he saw six or more targets in 3-of-5 games with Osweiler. It’s impossible to predict this backfield with the way they’ve been used to this point. The Colts have allowed just 3.93 yards per carry on the season and have allowed just six total touchdowns to running backs through 10 games. They’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher against them and that’s despite opponents averaging 22.9 carries per game against them, which shows consistency. They have allowed five RB1 performances this year, but four of those running backs racked up at least five catches and 54 yards through the air. Gore hasn’t totaled more than 19 yards through the air all season, so you’re not likely to see a surprise performance against his old team. If there’s one capable of that, it’s Drake, but he can’t do it with a measly 9.5 touches per game like he saw the last two weeks. Colts opponents do average 65.1 plays per game, so there’s plays to go around, but Drake cannot be considered anything more than a middling RB3. As for Gore, he’s a low-end RB3 who comes with a semi-high floor, but not much upside. Did you know that he still hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this year?

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: We’ve seen Mack settle in right around the 60-62 percent of snaps mark, which is much better than the 35-56 percent one he had in Weeks 6 and 7. He’s had a few brutal matchups the last two weeks, and everyone is jumping ship, but you shouldn’t be one of them. The Jaguars and Titans are both top-five defenses against the run. The Dolphins… well, they’re not. They’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and it’s for a lot of different reasons. They’ve faced the third-most attempts (25.3/game), allowed the seventh-most yards per carry (4.85), and the ninth-most touchdowns (12) to the running back position. But it’s even worse than that, because they allowed just 249 rushing yards on 71 carries (3.51 yards per carry) to start the season, but have allowed 979 yards on 182 carries (5.38 yards per carry) since then, showing they’ve been trending in the wrong direction. They have now allowed a top-15 running back in 9-of-10 games with the only exception being the Jets. In fact, 8-of-10 teams have produced at least one RB1 performance against them. Mack should be played as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in this game. Hines has now played 20 or less snaps in 3-of-4 games the last month, so he shouldn’t be played as anything more than a low-end RB4. Jordan Wilkins has been starting to eat into his snaps and has looked good in the process.

WRs
DeVante Parker: We don’t know if Parker will play this week, as he’s been listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury, so stay tuned for updates to these notes on Sunday morning. An interesting fact I came across with the Colts is that they’ve allowed at least one top-36 receiver in each of their last seven games, and that’s with a weak schedule. It’s also a good thing that Tannehill is returning, as there’ve been 16 games in Parker’s career where he’s played with Tannehill and has totaled at least four targets (if Parker plays, that’s minimal). In those games, he’s averaged 4.1 receptions for 61.5 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. While I’ve moved on from touting Parker as a must-play when on the field, some things do add up to production in this game. The Colts have scored at least 29 points in each of their last five games which should lead to negative gamescript, their opponents average 65.1 plays per game, and they’ve allowed a touchdown every 15.5 targets to wide receivers. Even if Parker plays, he’s a very high risk WR4, though it would help if we see him get in a full practice before the end of the week. Update: Parker practiced this week, though he was in a non-contact jersey. This could be due to the lack of depth on the roster, though. Adam Gase has said he believes Parker will play, so it’s now up to you on whether or not you think he should be in your lineup.  

Kenny Stills: The return of Tannehill doesn’t only help Parker, but it helps Stills as well. Over the first five weeks, Stills totaled 24 targets, 14 receptions, 241 yards, and three touchdowns. In the four games with Osweiler, he totaled just 9 targets, 5 receptions, 85 yards, and one touchdown. Tannehill throws into tight windows 14 percent of the time, while Osweiler would do that just eight percent of the time, which explains why Amendola was a favorite of his. The issue is that the Colts have allowed just 28 plays of 20-plus yards through the air (6th-fewest) and one play of 40-plus yards (fewest in NFL). We know Stills relies on the big-play more than anyone else in this offense, though it’s important to know that there’s likely one Dolphins receiver to finish as a top-36 option this week, as the Colts have allowed at least one in each of their last seven games. Stills is just a WR5 this week, but his arrow is pointing in the right direction with Tannehill back.

Danny Amendola: If there’s someone whose projection gets knocked with Tannehill under center, it’s Amendola. Tannehill’s average depth of target isn’t much deeper than that of Osweiler, but Tannehill has shown the willingness to throw into tighter windows. He averaged just 4.0 targets per game with Tannehill and 8.2 targets per game with Osweiler, though it does help that Albert Wilson went to injured reserve. Kenny Moore mans the slot for the Colts and has allowed a 73 percent catch-rate in his coverage but has also held receivers to just 8.8 yards per reception and two touchdowns on 56 targets. Amendola is no longer an ultra-safe streaming option and falls into the WR5 conversation.

T.Y. Hilton: After Adoree Jackson held Josh Gordon in check the week before, they trusted him in coverage with Hilton last week. Let’s just say that didn’t work, as Hilton caught all nine of his targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns. It was good to see, as Hilton hadn’t totaled more than four catches for 77 yards since Week 4. The Dolphins are likely to have Xavien Howard cover him this week, and that’s a good thing for Hilton owners. Howard is a bigger cornerback (6-foot-1, 195 pounds) who ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the Combine a few years ago (you don’t get faster as you age). Howard has been a solid cornerback in coverage, but he’s also allowed at least one 20-yard play in 7-of-10 games this season. The 16.6 yards per reception he’s allowed ranks as the fourth-most among cornerbacks who’ve seen 30-plus targets. The Dolphins may choose not to shadow Hilton, which wouldn’t be bad, either. Consider him a rock-solid WR2 this week.

Ryan Grant/Dontrelle Inman: It’s tough to say what’s happening here, as the Colts paid Grant to come in and be the No. 2 receiver, but Inman has severely outplayed him this year. Over the last three weeks, Inman has seen 17 targets, turning them into 14 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. Inman has taken a lot of Chester Rogers‘ snaps in the slot the last two weeks but has also ran two more routes than Grant as well. It’s likely that these two will alternate, but when they’re three-wide, both are on the field. The issue is that there’s likely limited volume this week, as opposing wide receivers average just 17.7 targets per game against the Dolphins. They’ve allowed 9.0 yards per target on those targets, which is why they’ve allowed 11 top-36 performances against them. This is a battle to watch because if Inman continues to average over five targets per game, he’s going to become a thing in fantasy with the way Luck is playing. As of now, Inman should be considered a WR5 while Grant is down in the WR6 range.

TEs
A.J. Derby: It seems the Dolphins have no clue what to do/how to use Mike Gesicki, so naturally, they’d have Derby run more routes when he returned to the lineup. It’s comical, really. Not that it matters all that much, as Derby saw two targets while Gesicki saw just one against the Packers. As a whole, tight ends for the Dolphins have averaged just 4.0 targets, 2.7 receptions, 27.6 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. The Colts have struggled against tight ends this year, but you cannot play either Derby or Gesicki and feel comfortable with it until we see a steady flow of targets.

Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: So, wait, Ebron isn’t guaranteed touchdowns every week? Must’ve been a bad dream I had. He saw zero targets in Week 11, though he did throw a pass on the five-yard-line which would’ve straight-up ended me if he’d thrown a touchdown. The good news? He ran 11 routes compared to 17 for Doyle last week, so the gap shrunk. After playing just 22 and 38 percent of snaps in Week 8 and 10, Ebron was upped to 40 percent of the snaps against the Titans, so they are trying to slowly increase his role, but Doyle’s locked into the lineup full-time, as he’s played at least 82 percent of the snaps in all his games. The Dolphins do allow somewhat high efficiency to tight ends this year, as they’ve totaled a 72.6 percent catch-rate (10th), a touchdown every 12.4 targets (7th), and 2.05 PPR points per target (6th). The fact that they haven’t allowed a tight end more than 62 yards might be worrisome to some, but that’s because tight ends have averaged just 6.2 targets per game against them. Doyle should be played as a middling TE1 who is going to start catching some of these touchdowns before long. Ebron remains one of the most efficient tight ends in fantasy on limited volume, and it’s unlikely you have a sure-thing you can play over him, so he remains on the low-end TE1 radar.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 47.5
Line: MIN by 3.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: The season is nearing its end for the Packers if they can’t pull of a win against the Vikings in Minnesota, which has been difficult on many teams. Rodgers has played against the Mike Zimmer defense in Minnesota four times and here’s what the track record shows (most recent first): 18/0/0 (hurt), 213/1/1, 212/2/0, 209/2/0. That’s consistency if we’ve ever seen it, though it’s far from elite QB1 numbers. Outside of the one Thursday night game against the Rams, the Vikings have allowed just one quarterback to post more than one passing touchdown against them. Rodgers actually played them in Green Bay earlier this year and finished that game with 281 yards and one touchdown, though that was while playing on his bad knee that he’d injured the prior week. Still, you’d have to go back to Week 5 to find the last time the Vikings allowed more than 14.0 fantasy points to a quarterback, and keep in mind they’ve played Mitch Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees the last three weeks. Rodgers has still yet to score fewer than 15 fantasy points this year, so he offers a floor higher than most, but he’s just a low-end QB1 this week.

Kirk Cousins: He’s now thrown for less than 265 yards in four of his last five games and hasn’t thrown three touchdowns since back in Week 4. Cousins has been a bit maddening in fantasy this year, as he’s had three games that’ve netted 14 or less points but has also posted 20-plus points in four games, though three of them came in the first four weeks. Fortunately, his biggest game of the year came against the Packers in Week 2 when he threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns on 48 pass attempts. The high attempts would be important to him this week because the Packers have not allowed quarterbacks to be very efficient against them. In fact, Cousins was the only one who’s thrown for more than 295 yards against them. They’ve allowed just a 62.2 percent completion-rate (5th-lowest) and 7.5 yards per attempt (15th-lowest) but have also boasted the highest sack percentage (9.47) in the league. Cousins’ offensive line isn’t playing great, but he’s only been sacked 5.98 percent of the time, which ranks as the 12th-lowest mark in the league. It should be interesting to see how the Packers adapt to what the Vikings showed them in the first meeting, though it appears the rest of the league has adapted rather well. This game is not likely going to turn into a shootout like their Week 2 meeting, so don’t expect another top-tier performance. He should still be able to post top-15 numbers, so consider him a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week. It is an upgrade knowing the Packers are going to be without defensive tackle Mike Daniels.

RBs
Aaron Jones: We have another RB1 on our hands, fantasy community. He plays in a top-10 offense with a solid offensive line and has now totaled 34 touches over the last two weeks compared to just nine touches for Jamaal Williams. He’s the workhorse of this team. The issue is that he’s about to match-up with the Vikings defense who’s allowed just 3.63 yards per carry on the season and a league-low five total touchdowns to running backs. It’s good to see Jones’ usage in the passing-game go up (saw a season-high six targets last week), as the Vikings have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year but have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs. They’ve allowed a rather-high 7.36 yards per target through the air, which is somewhere the Packers should be exploiting. When you have a guy who’s getting 70-plus percent of the work in the Packers offense, including goal-line work, you plug him in your lineup no matter what, but this matchup likely won’t net top-10 numbers for Jones, as the only ones to do that against the Vikings were Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley. He should still be played as an RB2, at worst.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: There’s now been five games where Cook has played, and in them, he’s totaled more than 40 rushing yards just once. Fortunately, the Packers haven’t been very tough against the run, allowing 4.74 yards per carry, which is much different than the 3.26 yards per carry the Bears have allowed. The downside is that they’ve allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs, which is where 64.2 percent of his PPR production has come from this year. We still don’t really know if Murray is going to get goal-line touches, though my guess would be that it’s mixed between the two. It’s important because there’s been three times this year where the Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns to a running back. Cook played against them back in Week 2 when he was healthy and totaled just 38 yards on 10 carries, while catching three passes for 52 yards. That game went into overtime, too, so there was plenty of time for production. Cook is the one you’d rather play, but nothing about his 2018 performance says that he should be leaned on as any more than a middling RB2 in this game. Murray is more than a handcuff but considering we don’t know if he’ll get goal-line work, he should be considered a risky RB4 for this game.

WRs
Davante Adams: After their Week 9 game, Rodgers said that Adams needed to get the ball more. Well, over the last two weeks, he’s totaled 19 targets, 14 receptions, 223 yards, and two touchdowns. He’ll now go into a matchup with Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings secondary, though it’s worth noting that Rhodes wasn’t shadowing Allen Robinson in Week 11. It’s possible that his foot injury is affecting him, and the Vikings would rather him play sides. It hasn’t mattered much against Adams the last two times they’ve played anyway, as Adams posted 8/64/1 against them earlier this year, and posted 5/54/1 against them last year, which was without Rodgers who was hurt at the start of the game. With that, the Vikings defense has been white-hot as of late, as they haven’t allowed 14 PPR points to a single wide receiver over their last six games, which has included Alshon Jeffery, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Thomas, Kenny Golladay, and Allen Robinson. While you wouldn’t ever consider benching Adams, you should lower expectations to the low-end WR1/high-end WR2 range this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: To all those people who dropped Valdes-Scantling after last week’s one-catch, eight-yard performance, you’ll probably regret that soon, though it may not be this week. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time a wide receiver cracked 81 yards or 14 PPR points against the Vikings, and knowing Valdes-Scantling is clearly second in line behind Adams, the odds are stacked against him. His place on the field depends on the availability of Randall Cobb, because that would push him to the perimeter with Cobb being somewhat of a slot-only receiver. Mackensie Alexander has manned the slot for them this year and he’s done a great job for the most part, as he’s allowed just 10.8 yards per reception and no touchdowns on 37 targets in coverage. If he plays on the perimeter, he’d likely see Trae Waynes most of the game, who hasn’t been someone to run away from in matchups. He’s allowed a 70.3 percent catch-rate in coverage with 8.3 yards per target and two touchdowns on 37 targets (both touchdowns came against the Rams). It’s unlikely the Packers put up more than 20-24 points in this game, so the scoring opportunities will be limited. Consider Valdes-Scantling a high-end WR4 this week because of who his quarterback is, though the matchup isn’t great.

Adam Thielen: After posting 100-plus yards in each of the first eight games, Thielen has totaled just 88 yards over the last two weeks combined, which included a great matchup against the Lions. We always knew regression was going to come, but it didn’t seem likely it would come that hard. He’s still seen 19 targets in those two games, so you shouldn’t be too concerned. The Packers have moved their cornerbacks all over the place with the injuries they’ve dealt with, and it was Josh Jackson in the slot last week against Doug Baldwin, which didn’t go too well. If they get safety Kentrell Brice back from his ankle injury, they could move Tramon Williams back to the slot, which wouldn’t be as ideal for Thielen, though Williams is beatable. Thielen already beat this defense for 12 catches, 131 yards, and a touchdown even when they were healthy and with Haha Clinton-Dix on the roster. Since their bye in Week 7, the Packers have allowed multiple top-36 wide receivers in every game. Thielen needs to be in lineups as a solid WR1 this week.

Stefon Diggs: If there’s one player’s matchup who’s been downgraded since the last time these two teams played, it’s Diggs. He crushed the Packers for 9/128/2 back in Week 2, but that was before they shuffled their cornerbacks around and decided to let Jaire Alexander shadow opposing No. 1 receivers. He’s allowed just a 58.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage for just 11.6 yards per catch and one touchdown on 48 targets. But here’s the thing. Diggs is a monster himself and has dominated man-coverage all year. Alexander has been better in man-coverage than he has in zone, too. It’s unlikely this game has shootout potential like their last one, which makes me a bit hesitant on Diggs. Consider him a middling WR2 who has a much worse matchup than Thielen.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: It seems the Packers are going to allow Graham to play his broken thumb injury. Why? We don’t have the answer to that, but we do know that Graham wasn’t producing with two good thumbs, so why would he start producing now? He’s totaled 21 yards or less in three of his last four games and has seen his role diminish in the offense as the season’s gone on. The Vikings haven’t been a matchup you need to attack with tight ends, though it hasn’t been one to run from, either. Graham actually posted 6/95/0 against them back in Week 2, but the Vikings defense has changed over the year. After allowing three of the first five tight ends to total at least 90 yards against them, they haven’t allowed more than 69 yards to any tight end since. Every tight end who finished top-15 against them netted at least six targets, which is something that’ll be hard to rely on from Graham given his broken thumb. He’s just a risky TE2 this week and not one who’s even guaranteed to play. Update: Graham got in practice this week and Mike McCarthy said he didn’t have any issues catching the ball. He’s going to play in this game, but understand that he comes with tons of risk. 

Kyle Rudolph: If you’ve been here every week this year, you would’ve known to sell Rudolph way back in the first few weeks, as he’s just not being utilized correctly in this offense. His biggest game of the year did come against the Packers when he totaled 7/72/0 on eight targets, though Cousins threw the ball 48 times that game. Rudolph has always been a big red zone target and even though he ranks eighth among tight ends with 10 red zone targets, he’s not delivering results. The Packers aren’t a team who’s likely to start allowing them either, as they’ve allowed just 44.2 yards per game to tight ends and one touchdown on 54 targets. Tight ends have also seen a league-low four red zone targets against them (no other team less than six targets), so they clearly hone in on the tight end in those situations. One of these weeks we’re going to see Rudolph pop back up on the fantasy radar, but this matchup shouldn’t be it. He’s just a high-end TE2 who doesn’t have to be played if you have a good alternative option.