Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Total: 47.0
Line: CAR by 3.5
QBs
Russell Wilson: Despite throwing for less than 250 yards in each of the last nine games they’ve played, Wilson has now thrown 16 touchdowns over the last six games. His touchdowns cannot continue at this rate, though the matchup with the Panthers kind of suits his recent production rather well. They’ve allowed a 6.1 percent touchdown rate to opposing quarterbacks this year, which ranks as the fourth-highest number in the league. Matthew Stafford was just the third quarterback who’s failed to throw at least two touchdowns against them this year, so the fantasy floor has been rather high for quarterbacks against the Panthers. They’ve also allowed 7-of-10 quarterbacks to rush for at least 13 yards, which may not sound like much, but it shows a consistency that we like for our quarterbacks. Wilson has ramped up his rushing over the last three games, rushing the ball 19 times for 150 yards. The passing yardage is an issue, as is his ultra-high touchdown rate, but knowing how well Wilson has played in the second-half of the season over his career, he should be locked-in as a middling to low-end QB1 this week.
Cam Newton: His stat line from last week looks mighty good, but Newton missed when it counted most as his coach relied on him to convert a two-point conversion with no time left. He dropped back and stood flat-footed for a good five seconds before completely missing Jarius Wright (two yards to high, two yards behind him), who was wide open in the middle of the end zone. Newton got his ankle rolled-up on during the game, though it was in the fourth quarter, so it’s puzzling why he ran the ball just twice. Over the last two weeks, he’s run the ball just four times for 12 yards, which is odd considering his first eight games netted at least five attempts and 29 yards in every game. Newton has now thrown multiple touchdowns in nine straight games, which is easily the longest streak of his career. The Seahawks haven’t been a great matchup for quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just one top-10 performance all season, and that was to Aaron Rodgers last week. They’ve still yet to allow more than 21.6 fantasy points to any quarterback, which no other team can say. We saw a similar quarterback in Mitch Trubisky total 200 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and 24 rushing yards against them, so there’s not an elite performance on the surface. I’d be curious to find out why Newton isn’t running the ball much the last two weeks, as he’ll likely want to in this matchup. Consider him a low-end QB1 who should at least offer a stable floor.
RBs
Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Mike Davis: With Carson back in the lineup, it was clearly his show against the Packers as he racked up 17 touches compared to eight for Penny and six for Davis. It’s hard to blame the Seahawks, as Carson looks fantastic in the lead role, averaging a rock-solid 4.5 yards per carry on the year. During the weeks he’s played the whole game, he’s totaled at least 14 touches in each of his last five games, while Davis and Penny fight for the scraps. The Panthers haven’t been the elite run-defense that we’ve come to know under Ron Rivera, as they’ve now allowed 4.31 yards per carry on the season, though they have allowed just five rushing scores, which is tied for the eighth-fewest in the league. The odd part is that there’s been no running back to total more than 17 carries against them this year, and that’s likely because they’re facing an average of just 18.6 carries per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. With Carson playing just 42.9 percent of the snaps last week, this is cause for concern, as they’re going to involve the other running backs, even if it’s just 4-8 carries, it all matters in a matchup with limited volume. Knowing that Carson hasn’t seen a target since back in Week 8, he’s not the safest option, making him a high-end RB3 who’s far from a sure thing. Penny and Davis are nothing more than hail-mary options, though Davis is the one who plays the bigger part in the passing-game, so he’d be the one I’d play of the two, if forced.
Christian McCaffrey: It’s rare in today’s NFL to find a running back who averages 19.6 touches per game, but that’s precisely where we are with McCaffrey, who has totaled 196 of the 248 running back touches (79 percent) in this offense. Running backs are averaging just 23.5 touches per game against the Seahawks, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in the league, but when you’re getting near 80 percent of the workload, that still amounts to almost 19 touches. When it comes to efficiency, the Seahawks aren’t a bad matchup for McCaffrey, as they allow 4.50 yards per carry and 7.09 yards per target to running backs, which are both below-average for a defense in today’s game. There’ve been eight running backs who’ve totaled at least 30 yards through the air against them, including 63 yards and a touchdown to Aaron Jones last week. Prior to that game, Jones hadn’t totaled more than 27 yards through the air this season. The area of concern is one where we always have concern with McCaffrey, as running backs have totaled a league-low 26 red zone touches against the Seahawks. He should be in lineups as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 this week with all the touches he’s getting.
WRs
Doug Baldwin: We knew the variance would start going to Baldwin at some point, right? He’s been seeing just as many targets as Lockett and Moore, but the lack of touchdowns were killing the perception, and rightfully so considering the lack of yardage out of Wilson this year. The slot matchup against the Panthers is the best one on the field, as Captain Munnerlyn has been consistently mediocre while the other cornerbacks have flashed at times. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen Bruce Ellington post 6/52/0, JuJu Smith-Schuster post 3/90/1, and Adam Humphries post 8/82/2 against the Panthers. As a team, they’ve allowed 11 top-40 performances against them with six of them being primarily slot receivers. Baldwin is not the lock-and-load WR2 he’s been in years past, as he’s seen more than five targets just once in the last four games, but he’s trending in the right direction, as he said he’s fully healthy again. Baldwin should be considered a high-end WR3 who has the best matchup among the Seahawks wide receivers. Update: Baldwin is considered a true game-time decision for this matchup with a groin injury, which is far from ideal. This game does take place during the noon set of games, so at least we’ll know early. Even if he does play, you have to downgrade him to a risky WR4 who may not finish the game.
Tyler Lockett: He’s been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football this year, as his 77.6 percent catch-rate ranks behind only Michael Thomas of wide receivers with at least 30 targets. He’s also caught a touchdown every 7.0 targets, which was always going to regress. His 2.87 PPR points per target is the most in the NFL (min. 30 targets). He’ll see a lot of Donte Jackson this week, the rookie cornerback who has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed this year. He’s definitely had some hiccups, as he’s allowed an ultra-high 69.8 percent completion rate in his coverage, but doesn’t get burned down the field very often, as evidenced by his 12.0 yards per reception allowed. Yes, Antonio Brown burned him down the sideline, but there was some amazing technique on Brown’s part in that route. Knowing that Lockett has seen just 21 targets over the last five games is concerning because he’ll need to rely on crazy efficiency to live up to the WR3 status that most expect. No wide receiver has finished top-40 against them with less than five targets, so Lockett owners had better hope for an increase in pass attempts here. Lockett is on the high-end WR4 radar in this matchup, but not one you should feel like you absolutely must play. Update: With Baldwin very questionable for this game, it moves Lockett up into WR3 territory, as there should be more targets coming his way.
David Moore: Knowing that Baldwin will see Captain Munnerlyn and that Lockett will likely see speedster Donte Jackson, that would leave James Bradberry for Moore. It’d be the toughest matchup he’s had all year, though Bradberry has allowed a touchdown in five of the last seven games. The 107.2 QB Rating in his coverage is easily a career-worst, as his first two years netted ratings of 85.5 and 81.6 in his coverage. He’s had some matchups with Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay in that stretch, so maybe we shouldn’t be too tough on him. Moore is a solid and competent receiver, but he’s not someone who you need to force targets to, even though he saw a season-high eight targets against the Packers last week. He should be considered a WR4/5-type option who might have the toughest matchup on the field.
Devin Funchess (Doubtful): He’s quickly losing the grip one the No. 1 receiver in the offense, as Moore has taken full advantage of his opportunity. Funchess let an end zone target go right off his chest last week and caught just 2-of-8 targets for 39 yards in a plus-matchup against the Lions. He’s now gone four straight weeks without eclipsing 44 yards despite matchups against the Bucs, Steelers, and Lions in that span. Newton’s completion rate to Funchess is 60.3 percent, while it’s 74.7 percent to the combination of Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Jarius Wright. His matchup for 55-60 percent of the game this week will be against Tre Flowers, the fifth-round rookie who’s struggled at times. He’s 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, so he’s got plenty of size to hang with Funchess, but he’s also allowed over 14 yards per catch, and has allowed three touchdowns on 46 targets in coverage this year. It’s tough to know if Funchess will break out of his funk, but the matchup against the Seahawks is the most favorable among the receivers. Consider him a WR4 who should provide a decent floor in this matchup. Update: Funchess has been downgraded to doubtful for this game, which means Curtis Samuel is likely going to start in his place and get more snaps. If you were relying on Funchess, it’d be wise to grab Samuel now.
D.J. Moore: It was only a matter of time before Moore had a game like the one he did in Week 11, as he’s been schemed into the offense in a lot of different ways and has phenomenal ability after the catch. The issue with relying on startable performances every week is that this offense has a lot of different options who can contribute every week. That’s why we saw Moore total just 36 yards over the previous two weeks combined, including just one catch for 16 yards against the Bucs. Keep in mind that he’s been a full-time player since Week 8, so it’s not as if he saw a big snap increase that led to his breakout performance. He’ll match-up with Shaquill Griffin for most of the day, who was supposed to be their replacement for Richard Sherman. While he hasn’t lived up to that billing, he’s allowed just an 86.4 QB Rating in his coverage this year, which is the lowest among the three starting cornerbacks. He’s also allowing just 3.9 yards after the catch, so it’s not as good of a matchup as last week’s against the Lions. He’s likely surpassed Funchess on the pecking order, though his matchup isn’t as good this week. Moore is still in the WR4 conversation due to his rise up the depth chart. Update: With Funchess looking unlikely to suit up, Moore should be in line for more targets than initial expected, nudging him into WR3 territory.
TEs
Nick Vannett: Even though Ed Dickson got the touchdown last week, it was his only target in the game. Since Dickson returned to the lineup, he’s totaled just five targets in four games, while Vannett has seen 15 in that time. This is important because the matchup against the Panthers is a great one. They’ve allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team in the league through 11 weeks and it’s not all that close anymore. They’ve allowed 182.8 PPR points to the position (18.3 per game) while the next closest team has allowed 162.9 points (Bucs). There have been eight different tight ends who’ve posted a top-12 performance against them, and a big reason for that is due to the touchdown every 9.1 targets they’ve allowed. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends while no other team has allowed more than seven of them. Knowing that these two tight ends have combined for just 20 targets over the last four games is worrisome, but the matchup says that one of them should perform like a TE1. While it’s tough to rank either of them as a bonafide top-10 option, Vannett is on the high-end TE2 radar and a decent streamer.
Greg Olsen: He’s now scored in four of the last five games, though he’s seen declining yardage in each of the last few games, bottoming out at just two catches for nine yards last week (though it somehow still netted a top-10 fantasy performance). With the lack of surefire starters at tight end, you’ll have to accept the good with the bad from Olsen and the Panthers offense. The Seahawks defense has been really good against tight ends this year, holding every single one of them to 12 or less PPR points, which means none of them have finished as a top-six option, which is where Olsen is ranked nearly every week. Bradley McDougald has been phenomenal stepping in for Kam Chancellor and has held every tight end to 52 yards or less, while intercepting two passes in the process. They have allowed a rather-high 72.9 percent completion rate to tight ends but have also held them to just 10.0 yards per reception, which is one of the lower marks in the league. Olsen should still be considered a TE1 this week, but it’s not a week to expect a massive performance or one to play him heavily in DFS.
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 42.5
Line: BAL by 11.0
QBs
Derek Carr: After not turning in a single touchdown as an offense in three of the last four games, Carr threw two touchdowns against a Cardinals defense that had allowed a league-low 10 passing touchdowns coming into the game. Did I mention he did that without his top two wide receivers and on the road? Not only was he down Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant for that game, but he also lost Brandon LaFell to an Achilles injury during the game. Carr only threw for 192 yards, but it just goes to show how inconsistent he’s been regardless of matchup. Now he’ll go against the Ravens, a team that’s allowed just 14 passing touchdowns on the season (fourth-fewest) and 223.5 passing yards per game (second-fewest) while in Baltimore. They’ve allowed just one quarterback to eclipse 274 yards against them this season and that’s despite four quarterbacks throwing 42 or more pass attempts. The 6.24 yards per attempt that they allow ranks as the best in football, while the closest team (Bills) sits at 6.50 yards per attempt. You really never know with Carr, but he’s outside QB2 range this week from a logical standpoint.
Lamar Jackson: It appears that Jackson will be asked to start again this week, as Joe Flacco‘s hip injury is rumored to be a multi-week issue. Jackson filled in against the weak front-seven of the Bengals last week and it allowed him to rush for 117 yards on a remarkable 27 carries. By comparison, there’s been no other quarterback who’s totaled more than 13 carries in a game this year. In 2017, there was no quarterback who totaled more than 14 carries in a game. In 2016, there was none who totaled more than 12 carries. Do you get my point? While Jackson is a difference-maker running the ball, this cannot continue, as they nearly lost the game to a hopeless Bengals team that recently hired Hue Jackson ( I wish I were making this up). Now, the Raiders aren’t much better, as they’ve allowed 29.3 points per game this year, which is third-most right behind… you guessed it, the Bengals and the Bucs. Oddly enough, the Raiders have allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (2.32) to running backs this year and just one rushing touchdown, which was to Case Keenum back in Week 2. The Raiders are a team that’s continually exploited through the air, as they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 9-of-10 games this year, including three to Josh Rosen last week. The way to beat the Raiders is through the air, but judging by Jackson’s passing performance in Week 11, it may not be wise for the Ravens to throw the ball all that much. One note that I’ll throw in is that the Raiders have generated just a 3.09 sack percentage, which ranks second-worst in the league, and Jackson was 10-of-12 for 110 yards against the Bengals when kept clean in the pocket. His rushing floor has to be somewhere in the range of 60 yards, which essentially gives him 1.5 passing touchdowns to start the game. He should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week in a plus-matchup, though he’s going to have to do something through the air to really hit big value.
RBs
Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: It’s unlikely that when this article is published on Wednesday night that we’ll know much about Martin’s ankle injury, though Jon Gruden apparently expects him to be okay for the game against the Ravens. Not that it matters much, as you don’t want to start Martin if you can help it. He’s still yet to score a touchdown this season, has yet to eclipse 15 carries, and will be going against a Ravens defense who has allowed just 3.47 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns all season. They’re fresh off a game against Joe Mixon where they held him to just 14 yards on 12 carries. He did score, but you should know that there hasn’t been one single running back who’s totaled at least 64 rushing yards AND a touchdown against them through 11 weeks. Martin is non-existent in the passing-game, so he can be safely benched in this matchup as he’s just a low-upside RB4. Richard is a better option, though not much better. The Ravens have also held all but three running backs to 20 yards or less through the air. The 8.08 PPR points per game they allow through the air is the second-lowest mark in the league to the Titans. Heck, even Christian McCaffrey totaled just four catches for 11 yards against them. Richard is just a low-end RB3 who does at least offer you a decent floor with how many pass-catchers are out.
Gus Edwards and Alex Collins: Well, ladies and gents… the process was right, the result was (somewhat) right, but the player was wrong. After Collins scored a touchdown on the opening drive, I thought to myself, “here we go.” After that, I was sad. For those who said anyone should’ve seen this coming, I present to you Edwards’ snap counts in the previous three games: 7, 8, 2. Yeah, nobody saw that coming. But it just teaches me a very valuable lesson – that Ravens running backs are never a sure thing. Some will want to know whether Edwards is the one moving forward. Well, it’s hard to say he’s not. The Ravens had their bye week to prepare for the Bengals in a must-win game, and they implemented a plan where Edwards was the go-to guy. He played extremely well racking up eight broken tackles and 115 yards on 17 carries. His 49 snaps were much higher than Collins’ 17 snaps, so it wasn’t just luck of the draw. The Raiders have now allowed five straight teams to rack up 112-plus rushing yards against them (with just running backs alone) and have allowed an average of 131.0 rushing yards per game, which is the highest mark in the NFL. It’s possible that they like Edwards more with Jackson under center in the type of offense they’re running, so we have to anoint him as the one to play in fantasy leagues. Even if it’s somewhat of a timeshare, the Raiders have faced 25 or more running back carries in seven of the last nine games, so it could be something similar to last week. Edwards should be played as a solid RB2, though as we’ve discussed, he’s far from a sure thing. As for Collins, he’s nothing more than an upside RB4 who’s more talented than most in his range. Update: Collins missed some practice this week with a foot injury, which only furthers the Edwards hype train. Collins is listed as questionable, though his practice participation trended upward as the week went on.
WRs
Seth Roberts: The Ravens are a brutal matchup for most wide receivers, let alone a team full of backups. Roberts did see seven targets with Nelson and Bryant out last week, which is solid volume for someone available in 99 percent of leagues. His matchup with Tavon Young is the best on the field, as he’s allowed a 68.6 percent catch-rate in his coverage, along with three touchdowns on 35 targets. This isn’t anything new, either, as he allowed a 68.7 percent catch-rate and five touchdowns on 83 targets as a rookie. The Ravens apparently don’t feel very comfortable with Marlon Humphrey or Jimmy Smith in the slot, which is why Young is there. If you’re looking for someone on the waiver wire who should see six-plus targets, Roberts is that guy, though his upside is the WR4 range. The Ravens have still yet to allow a receiver total more than 91 yards against them.
John Brown: You had to know that going with Lamar Jackson, it was going to limit the passing volume in the offense, but we couldn’t have predicted just four combined targets for Brown and Crabtree. Brown saw just one target which totaled 23 yards, but it’s now an issue for us moving forward. It really stinks, too, because the Raiders have allowed a league-high 11 plays of 40-plus yards this season. It’s not to say that Brown can’t catch a bomb from Jackson, but there’s going to be limited opportunity. Most would be shocked to hear that the Raiders have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver this season, but it’s true. They’ve allowed an NFL-low 106 receptions to them, though the touchdown every 11.7 targets they allow to receivers is pretty remarkable (3rd-most often). We know they allow the big-play, so it’s not shocking to hear that allow the second-highest yards per reception (14.7) to the position. This matchup actually suits Brown well, but we just need Jackson to give him more than one opportunity. Consider Brown a high-end WR4 who comes with a very low floor, though it takes just one play for him to reach WR3 heights.
Michael Crabtree: It’s now been three straight weeks where Crabtree has totaled three or less catches with 32 or less yards. He saw three targets from Jackson last week, though they netted just one catch for seven yards. Crabtree is a guy who’s not going to rack up yardage at this point in his career and has been living off touchdowns the last four years. The issue is that Joe Flacco and Jackson aren’t quarterbacks who will throw for multiple touchdowns very often. He’s going to match-up with Gareon Conley most of the day, who is likely the best cornerback on the Raiders roster, as he’s allowed just a 53 percent catch-rate in his coverage this season, while allowing just one touchdown on 32 targets. While Brown has the ability to change his fantasy outlook on one single play, Crabtree is not as fortunate, making him just a low-end WR4 and not one who needs to be played, though I’m sure he’d love to stick it to his former team.
Willie Snead: It was odd to see Snead see 8-of-13 wide receiver targets last week, as he performed nearly identical to the way he has been with Flacco under center. It made some sense given the matchups for Brown and Crabtree, but it could be a trend in Jackson’s progressions and that he will often check down to the underneath receiver if he’s not scrambling. The Raiders have rookie Nick Nelson covering the slot as of late, though he’s likely going to move to the bench after his 83-yard, two-touchdown performance he allowed in his coverage against the Cardinals. It’s likely they put Daryl Worley in the slot considering Rashaan Melvin is back in Jon Gruden’s good graces. Worley isn’t a terrible matchup, either, as he’s allowed 244 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage this year on just 26 targets. It’s difficult to say that Snead is anything more that a WR4/5 option due to his lack of ceiling, though.
TEs
Jared Cook: The pass-catchers continue to drop like flies around him, which means Cook will not go away no matter how much you thought he would. He’s totaled 15 targets over the last two weeks, so he’s squarely on the TE1 radar when they head out to Baltimore. The Ravens have been so good against wide receivers that we’ve seen tight ends perform out of necessity against them. They’ve only allowed three touchdowns to the position, but they allow an average of 5.4 receptions for 63.8 yards per game to opponents. There’s been just three tight ends who’ve seen at least five targets against them, and the lines of those tight ends were: Ben Watson 6/43/1, David Njoku 6/69/0, and Vance McDonald 5/62/0. Nothing too out of this world, but good enough for TE1 production. His volume should carry him into the top-12 this week.
Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst: The offense changed quite a bit last week, enough to the point where you don’t even want to consider either of these tight ends this week. With Jackson under center, the Ravens had Nick Boyle out there for the most snaps (by far) and it led to Andrews running just nine routes, and Hurst running just six routes. The Raiders are a terrible at defending the tight end position across the board, but none of it matters if these tight ends aren’t on the field getting opportunities. Unless something drastically changes, the process to play one of these tight ends outside of a tournament is wrong.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 55.0
Line: TB by 3.5
QBs
Nick Mullens: Streaming this week isn’t pretty, but Mullens can potentially save the day with a matchup against the Bucs. They’ve have been the most generous defense to opposing quarterbacks while allowing a 74.7 percent completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 7.44 percent touchdown rate. With numbers like that, you wonder how they haven’t allowed the most points to quarterbacks. It took Alex Smith down three offensive linemen, two starting wide receivers, and his best pass-catching back to hold a quarterback below 17 fantasy points. We saw Eli Manning complete 17-of-18 passes against them last week for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterbacks are only averaging 33.6 pass attempts per game against them, but knowing it’s been enough to produce fantasy points, that’s all we care about. I’m not bold enough to say he’s a low-end QB1, but you should know that 8-of-10 quarterbacks have finished as top-12 options against the Bucs. Consider him a middling QB2 with QB1 upside and someone who should be considered a high-floor streamer.
Jameis Winston: He’s back. In his offseason profile, I talked about combining his and Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s numbers from 2017 and that they would’ve led the NFL in passing yards. Combining their numbers in 2018 would be even bigger, as the two have combined for 3,746 yards, 25 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 277 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns. Together, that would be 247.5 fantasy points, which would rank behind only Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff. Knowing that they’ve gone back-and-forth with the two, Winston will have a much longer leash in his first few games. The 49ers might be the perfect defense for him, too, as they’ve allowed 21 passing touchdowns, but have intercepted just two passes all year, which is the second-fewest, only to the other sideline (the Bucs). They lack depth in their secondary and that’ll hurt against the Bucs and their four starting wide receivers. There have been just three quarterbacks all year to not finish top-15 against the 49ers and each of them threw the ball 25 times or less. I don’t think we need to worry about that with Winston, as the Bucs are averaging 41.1 attempts per game. He’s a rock-solid QB1 this week and one you should be willing to trust.
RBs
Matt Breida and Alfred Morris: The last time we saw Breida, he looked like an All-Pro against the Giants defense, destroying them for 132 total yards and two touchdowns. He out-touched Morris 20-9, so it’s still somewhat of a timeshare, but Breida is earning more trust by the week. To keep up with the Bucs offense, they’ll want him on the field against a Bucs defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns to running backs over their last six games. Their defense is ailing and have trended way down since losing Kwon Alexander a month back. They were also without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Justin Evans last week, so it just continues to get worse. The 17 total touchdowns they’ve allowed to running backs this year is the worst in the NFL, as no other team has allowed more than 15. For those doing the math at home, that’s 1.7 touchdowns per game to running backs. Breida has five touchdowns this year to just one for Morris, so fire him up as a rock-solid RB2 this week who shouldn’t let you down. As for Morris, he’s someone who could fall into the end zone in this game, but knowing the potential gamescript, he could be phased out, making him a touchdown-dependent RB4.
Peyton Barber: We did like Barber last week, but had I known he’d go over 100 yards, I would’ve played him in DFS. He’s now totaled at least 61 rushing yards in three of his last four games, with touchdowns in two of them, so maybe the offensive line is starting to show some continuity? The 49ers haven’t been a matchup to target on the ground this year, though, as they’ve allowed just 3.94 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns through 10 games. Over the last three weeks, they’ve held the Cardinals, Raiders, and Giants entire teams of running backs to 80 yards or less on the ground. They have allowed 151 receiving yards in those three games combined, but Barber isn’t utilized in the passing-game, as he’s caught just five passes for 18 yards over the last five games. He’s still a starting running back who’s going to get 12-15 touches, so he doesn’t fall outside the RB3 range, but he’s not nearly as attractive this week.
WRs
Marquise Goodwin: The Goodwin/Mullens connection was much better in the second game, as Goodwin saw five targets and turned them into 4/69/0 against the Giants secondary. The bye week also likely allowed this team to get healthy enough to take part in a shootout against the Bucs. They’ve allowed 2.21 PPR points per target to wide receivers this year, which is the second-highest number in the league (behind the Lions) and that’s despite allowing just 12.0 yards per reception. How is that possible? Well, they allow a 76.8 percent completion rate to wide receivers, while no other team in the NFL has allowed higher than 70.4 percent. Their cornerbacks and safeties have combined to allow 142-of-185 passes directed at wide receivers to be completed. They’ve also allowed 42 pass plays to go for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the second-most to only the Rams. Goodwin has proven he’s not a consistent play, but this matchup should give him an opportunity to have one of his better games, making him a solid WR4-type play with upside.
Pierre Garcon: After missing their Week 10 game, Garcon is expected to return to the lineup, which is good news for Mullens, who targeted him five times in the Week 9 game. His knee injury is worth monitoring throughout the week, but the matchup is a solid one. He’s likely to see Brent Grimes most of the day, who has been the best of the Bucs cornerbacks, though that’s not saying much. He’s still allowed a 68 percent catch-rate in his coverage and 15.0 yards per reception, but just one touchdown. We all know Garcon doesn’t score touchdowns, right? I mean, he scored one in Week 9, but it was his first touchdown since Week 14 of 2016. The matchup seems to add up to a game where I’d project Garcon for six targets, four receptions, and 50 yards. While that’s not going to win you the week, he does provide a somewhat stable floor, provided he practices all week. He’s a low-upside WR4/5 option.
Mike Evans: It was good to see Evans get back into the WR1 conversation in a good matchup last week, and it only took seven targets for him to net 120 yards and a touchdown. Hopefully his injury woes are behind him. With Winston back under center, some may expect Evans to regress, but I’m not one of them. I believe the splits with Fitzpatrick were more variance than anything. Evans lines up at LWR and in the slot about 65 percent of the time, which means he’ll be away from Richard Sherman most of the day. He’ll see a lot of Ahkello Witherspoon in coverage, which is a really good thing for Evans’ owners. He’s been benched before, but the 49ers have had to go back to him with all the injuries they’ve dealt with in the secondary. He’s allowed a touchdown once every 10 targets in his coverage and quarterbacks have been rocking a 113.7 QB Rating when throwing at him this year. He’s got solid size at 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, but Evans’ athleticism should shine against the big cornerback. There have been five wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 100 yards against them this year. Evans is a stud WR1 for this game.
DeSean Jackson: As it turns out, Godwin’s missed practice time last week did net more snaps for Jackson, as he played a season-high 53 snaps against the Giants. After popping off for 110-plus yards in three of the first four games, Jackson has now gone six straight games with less than 80 yards. He gets the opportunities with Winston under center, though they have been off in their connection by inches it seems. He’ll see the most of Richard Sherman in coverage, which is the toughest matchup on the field, as Sherman has allowed just 11-of-24 passing in his coverage and a piddly 5.6 yards per target. He’s not quite the elite cornerback he once was, and Jackson is a veteran who should know how to expose his weaknesses, but it’s also not a matchup you should expect to be targeted very much. Jackson has also struggled against zone coverage this year, as his quarterbacks have a 78.5 QB Rating when targeting him in zone, while they’ve posted a much-higher 116.0 QB Rating when targeting him in man coverage. He should be considered a boom-or-bust WR4 in this matchup.
Chris Godwin: After missing some practice time last week, Godwin found himself down as the No. 4 wide receiver on the pecking order, as he played a season-low 23 snaps, 30 behind Jackson. Pay attention to his participation, as that’ll likely affect his involvement in the offense. Godwin has been used all over the formation, so he doesn’t have a specific cornerback matchup, though his slot usage is encouraging. He’s run 30 percent of his snaps in the slot, and he’s been targeted on 18.2 percent of those routes. This is big because of the five receivers who’ve totaled 100-plus yards against the 49ers, four of them have been slot-heavy receivers. He’s risky for sure, but Godwin has flashed before and should be on the upside WR4 radar this week, provided he practices all week.
Adam Humphries: This is kind of nuts, but since the start of Week 6, Humphries is the No. 13 wide receiver in PPR formats, ahead of guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Alshon Jeffery. No, I’m not kidding. He’s totaled at least 53 yards in 5-of-6 games, including each of his last four games. And now, he’s heading into a matchup with the 49ers, who have allowed four 100-yard games to slot-heavy wide receivers. Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling all posted at least 100 yards through the air against them. While K’Waun Williams isn’t a terrible cornerback, he’s stuck in zone coverage half the time, and it’s led to some big games. He’s not a lock into lineups no matter what type of guy, but he’s obviously a big part of this offense regardless what’s going on with Godwin/Jackson. With a game that’s got a 55-point over/under, Humphries can be played as a solid WR4 who is approaching WR3 territory in PPR formats.
TEs
George Kittle: Fantasy owners can breathe, as Kittle is returning from his bye week. He’s joined the elite tier of tight ends that must be started every week and nothing about this matchup worries you. The Bucs have been what might be the worst defense in the league against tight ends, even if they rank as the second-worst in fantasy points allowed. Why? Well, the consistency of great performances against them. There have been six tight ends who’ve posted 15 or more PPR points against them, while no other team has allowed more than four such performances. You want a floor? They’ve allowed at least 8.4 PPR points to 9-of-10 tight ends, which is pretty much TE1 territory this year. In two games with Mullens under center, Kittle has seen 14 targets, which netted 13 receptions for 191 yards and a touchdown. He’s an elite must-play TE1.
Cameron Brate: Now that we know O.J. Howard will miss the remainder of the season, we’ve got Brate full-time. He should be able to step in and be just fine, as he’s got plenty of rapport with Winston. The 49ers have been a middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to defending tight ends, as they’ve allowed both Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham to top 100 yards, but they’ve held all other tight ends under 50 yards. It should be noted that just one of those tight ends who were held under 50 yards saw more than five targets, so with limited opportunity comes limited results. Between Brate and Howard this year, they’ve combined to average 7.4 targets per game. While it’s not certain that Brate sees all that volume, he should be locked into five-plus targets and considered a solid middling TE1.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 47.5
Line: CIN by 3.0
QBs
Baker Mayfield: It was a tease to see Mayfield have the best game of his young career and then go on bye the following week. Here’s a game where there should be plenty of scoring opportunities, as the Bengals opponents average 71.9 plays per game, while the Browns opponents average 72.3 plays per game. The Bengals defense has been a mess with all the injuries they’ve dealt with, which led them to fire their defensive coordinator (and bring in Hue Jackson as a special assistant). There’s been just two games this year where the Bengals have held the opposing quarterback(s) less than 18.7 points, and they were to Ryan Tannehill, who was way back in Week 5 before the injuries started to pile up, and then last week to Lamar Jackson, who scored 15.7 points, though he should be considered more of a running back than anything. Mayfield has now thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games, so he can be trusted. The Bengals also lack much of a pass-rush, as their 5.61 percent sack-rate is seventh-lowest in the league. Their linebackers are dinged-up and couldn’t contain Jackson, but it’s been a problem all year, as they’ve allowed a league-leading 300 rushing yards to quarterbacks and three rushing touchdowns to them. Mayfield is in the low-end QB1 conversation this week and makes for a solid streamer.
Andy Dalton: He played a very respectable game last week against the Ravens, especially when you consider he was without A.J. Green, but we must remember it was a divisional game and was the second time the two teams played this year. Here’s another divisional game, but unlike the Ravens, the Bengals haven’t seen the Browns at all this year. Their pass-rush had slowed down over their last five games, as the team just seemed burnt out from all the time they were spending on the field. They averaged 2.8 sacks per game in Weeks 1-5, but then averaged just 2.0 sacks from Weeks 6-10. The Bengals protection has been okay with Dalton, but my guess is that he’ll be under a bit more pressure this week. There’s apparently hope that Green will play this week, though it’s far from guaranteed. There have been four quarterbacks who’ve posted top-12 numbers against the Browns, and three of them threw the ball 52-plus times, with the only one who didn’t being Patrick Mahomes. Dalton has averaged just 34.8 attempts per game this year while the Browns face 41.5 attempts per game, so something has to give here. The volume has been vital to success against the Browns, as they’ve allowed just a 3.86 percent touchdown rate, the second-lowest mark in the league. Dalton should be considered a high-end QB2 if Green plays but should be considered a middling to low-end QB2 if he sits.
RBs
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: Since trading away Carlos Hyde, the Browns have given Chubb at least 18 carries per game and he’s delivered time-and-time again. Since he took the starting job in Week 7, he’s the No. 13 running back in PPR formats and the No. 10 running back in standard formats. Now going against the Bengals run-defense that’s allowed 1,095 yards on 200 carries (5.48 yards per carry) with nine touchdowns over their last eight games to running backs alone, he’s set to take the leap into the elite conversation. Keep in mind that those numbers aren’t even including the 117 rushing yards that Lamar Jackson posted on them last week. The Bengals opponents average 71.9 plays per game and 23.5 rushing attempts per game, so feel free to play Chubb as an elite RB1 in this game. The only concern you have is that he’s not heavily utilized in the passing-game, though the Browns have shown a willingness to run even when losing, as evidenced by his 22 carries against the Chiefs in Week 9. As for Johnson, he appears to be in a similar role to the one he was under Hue Jackson, as he’s played just 52-of-128 snaps over the two games under Freddie Kitchens, totaling four carries and 13 targets in the two games combined. His production has been good in those games, but it’s clear he’s in a Chris Thompson-type role where he’s almost strictly passing-down role with 1-3 carries per game. The matchup is a great one and the Bengals have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs (2nd in NFL), so he should be considered a low-end RB3 this week who’s a bit more appealing in PPR formats.
Joe Mixon: Some will say that Mixon’s knee injury was the reason for his lackluster performance against the Ravens, but that’s not it. The matchup was brutal and when you don’t have A.J. Green on the field, everyone will suffer as a result. Fortunately, Mixon has a much better matchup this weekend against the Browns, who have allowed a robust 4.62 yards per carry and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs, which ranks second-most in the NFL. Volume has been an issue for Mixon, as he’s totaled 13 or less carries in four of his last five games, though the Browns should be able to help with that, too. Through 10 games, opposing backs average 23.9 carries per game against them, as well as 5.2 receptions. That amounts to 29.1 touches per game to running backs, so considering Mixon typically receives 75-plus percent of the touches, this should be a great week to play him. He should be locked into 18-plus touches this week and produce low-end RB1 numbers because of it. The Browns have allowed a top-three RB performance in three of their last five games.
WRs
Jarvis Landry: Let’s hope the bye week did wonders for Landry, who’s been among the most inefficient wide receivers in all of football this year. His 5.7 yards per target is worse than any season he had in Miami, and now, the new offensive coordinator has put a dent in his targets. After seeing at least 10 targets in six straight games, he’s seen just 12 targets total in the new offense, so it’s possible he’s no longer going to be the focal point. While I don’t necessarily believe that (because there’s no one else), we have to lower our target expectations moving forward. That’s not very wise going into this matchup, though, as the Bengals one below-average cornerback covers the slot. Fifth-year cornerback Darqueze Dennard returned in Week 11 against the Ravens after being out of the lineup since Week 6 with a collarbone injury. Over the course of his career, he’s allowed a 71 percent completion rate in his coverage, including a 78.4 percent rate this year. There’s been just one season in which he held quarterbacks to less than a 108.1 QB Rating when targeting him, and that was in 2017 when the Bengals had a lot of playmakers around him. They don’t have much to overcome his lackluster play anymore, so Landry should be trusted as a high-end WR3, even with the decreased volume.
Antonio Callaway: Remember when the Browns were going to play Callaway less? Yeah, that never happened, as he’s still the No. 2 receiver behind Landry. After dropping six of his last 43 targets, Callaway had a drop-less game against the Falcons in Week 10, though he only saw two targets. He’s got a much tougher matchup against William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick than Landry does, though those two haven’t even played up to their talent-level this season. They’re allowing just a 49.5 percent catch-rate, but when they do allow a catch, it goes for an average of 14.8 yards. Callaway can get loose down the field and add up to WR4 numbers on one catch but given his lack of production with Mayfield under center, he’s not someone you really need to trust in season-long leagues. Knowing that teams average over 70 plays against the Bengals and that the cornerback duo allows nearly 15 yards per catch, he may be worth a flier in tournaments if you’re putting together a lot of lineups.
Rashard Higgins: During Mayfield’s time starting, Higgins has caught 11-of-14 targets for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Why don’t they get him more involved? Well, he was coming off a multi-week injury the last two weeks, so maybe the bye week allows them to do just that. He’s the type of player who needs to be monitored, as he could post numbers if given the opportunity. You don’t need to play him just yet, but I wanted to put him here to remind you about his potential.
A.J. Green: Knowing that the Bengals are still somehow in the playoff race, Green is trying to come back this week, though nothing is guaranteed at this point. He’d return to play against Denzel Ward, who’s been among the better cornerbacks in football during his rookie season. He’s been asked to shadow No. 1 receivers and has allowed just a 55 percent catch-rate while holding them to just 10.6 yards per reception in his coverage. Ward doesn’t go into the slot, which is where a lot of damage is done, and the Bengals do use Green there about 25-30 percent of the time. The biggest concern for Green, who is typically matchup-proof, is his foot, as these types of injuries to pass-catchers typically don’t end well. Even if he were to make it through the game, what would his efficiency look like in a tough matchup. Even if Green plays, he’s a risky WR2 against Ward, though you’re likely stuck playing him in season-long leagues. I’d definitely fade him in DFS this week. I’ll update this as the week goes on and we learn more about Green’s status. Update: Green refused to comment on when he’ll play next, and though he’s listed as questionable, he didn’t practice all week. He’s not going to play, so get him out of lineups.
Tyler Boyd: He’s obviously someone who would benefit from Green’s presence on the field, as he’s totaled just 136 scoreless yards on 15 targets over the last two weeks with Green out. His matchup is good in this game regardless, as the Browns secondary is ailing a bit and the slot has been the area to attack. E.J. Gaines had been covering the slot, but he went to injured reserve before their Week 10 game which leaves Briean Boddy-Calhoun covering the slot. He was benched earlier in the year, but they need him on the field after Gaines’ injury. Boddy-Calhoun has allowed 26-of-33 passing for 358 yards this year, which is a massive 10.8 yards per target. The Browns have allowed their opponents 72.3 plays per game, which has led to 24.1 targets per game for wide receivers. Even if Green returns, there’s plenty to go around here. If Green plays, Boyd should be locked in as a high-upside WR2. If Green sits this game out, he moves back into low-end WR2 territory, though he’s still startable.
John Ross: He’s another one who would benefit from Green’s presence because if not, he’ll see the most of Denzel Ward. The Browns have allowed seven pass plays of 40-plus yards, which is obviously right down Ross’ alley, though he’s flashing more versatility than everyone realizes. He’s now scored four touchdowns on 29 targets (one every 7.3 targets) with only one of them coming on a pass longer than 22 yards. He’s seen 13 targets in the two games without Green, so the volume has increased, and the Browns opponents average 24.1 targets per game (to wide receivers only). Green may come back as a decoy, which again, would benefit Ross, who would then line-up across from T.J. Carrie in coverage. There’s a lot of moving parts here, but if Green were to be out, Ross would be just a weak WR4 option, though he’d probably see six-plus targets. If Green plays, Ross should be considered a high-upside WR4 even if it meant less targets.
TEs
David Njoku: The bye came at the perfect time for Njoku, who had been battling knee and rib injuries the last few weeks. He’s now seen just six targets over the last three weeks combined, which comes after him seeing six-plus targets in 6-of-7 games to start the season. When targeted, tight ends have success against the Bengals, as they’ve allowed a 75.3 percent completion rate to the position with 8.43 yards per target in the process. Five different tight ends have totaled at least 51 yards against them, though one interesting thing to note is that of the five touchdowns they’ve allowed to tight ends, four of them were to backups. It’s difficult to say that Njoku is a must-start at this point in time, but it’s hard to find a tight end who presents as much upside as he does, especially when Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns in his last four games. Njoku should be considered a risky low-end TE1, but one who comes oozing with upside.
C.J. Uzomah: After looking like he’d be a solid streaming option when Tyler Eifert went down, Uzomah has kind of blended in with a lot of other mediocre options. He’s totaled just six catches for 64 scoreless yards over the last three games combined, which included a catchless performance against the Bucs, who have been a great matchup all season. The Browns defense has struggled with tight ends as of late and a lot of it likely has to do with them having linebackers and safeties in-and-out of the lineup. Over the last two games, they’ve allowed Travis Kelce 7/99/2 on nine targets, and then Austin Hooper followed that up with 10/56/1 on 11 targets. The Browns have allowed the second-most receptions (64) to tight ends but have allowed them just 9.8 yards per reception on them (4th-lowest mark). In two games against a similar defense last year, Tyler Kroft (Uzomah’s teammate who’s on injured reserve) totaled 6/68/2 in the first meeting and then 3/14/1 in the second one, so the Bengals clearly see something against this Gregg Williams defense. Uzomah should be considered a high-end TE2 despite his struggles lately.
