Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Total: 55.0
Line: NO by 8.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: The Eagles may be in trouble as a team with the lack of depth in the secondary, but Wentz hasn’t been the problem. He’s completed 71.0 percent of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt with a 15:3 touchdown to interception ratio. Heading into a matchup with the Saints, the stakes have never been higher this season and the matchup is promising. Sure, the Saints just held a A.J. Green-less Andy Dalton to 153 yards and a touchdown, but prior to that game they’d allowed an average of 325.1 passing yards per game, including 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Their pass-rush has looked good against the Vikings and Bengals, but whose hasn’t? Against the Ravens and Rams offensive line, the Saints managed just one sack in those two games combined. Not just the passing numbers, either, as the Saints have allowed a league-high four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. We haven’t seen Wentz get into the end zone this year, but he’s not immune to it, either, as he’s produced totals of 26 yards and 28 yards on the ground over their last five games. Despite being eight-point underdogs, the Eagles are still projected for 23.5 points, which should make you relatively comfortable plugging Wentz in as a rock-solid QB1 this week who could throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns, as there’s already been three quarterbacks who’ve done it against the Saints this year.

Drew Brees: It’s happening again with the Saints offense, as Brees hasn’t thrown the ball more than 35 times the return of Ingram and has totaled 30 or less attempts in four of the last five games. He’s been able to retain his QB1 status in great matchups over the last two games, and the matchup against the Eagles is another good one. They were without two starting cornerbacks last week and then lost their top cornerback, Ronald Darby, for the year with a torn ACL in that game. So, there’s a possibility that the Eagles are without every one of their starting cornerbacks against the Saints this week… that can’t be good (though Sidney Jones has a chance to play). Despite the issues they’ve had in the secondary, they’ve allowed the lowest touchdown percentage to quarterbacks at just 3.37 percent. The rate is so low because they’ve faced such a high number of attempts, as opponents are averaging 39.6 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. Still, with their cornerback issues, it’s going to be very difficult to contain Brees. Knowing that the Eagles are one of the better run-defenses in the league, Brees can be started as a high-end QB1 this week. News came out on Wednesday that the Saints will be without left tackle Terron Armstead for 3-4 weeks, which isn’t ideal for Brees, but not enough to move him out of must-start territory.

RBs
Wendell Smallwood, Josh Adams, and Corey Clement: Another week goes by and another one where we’ve got a messy timeshare. It’s so odd that we have a team with a great offensive line and one that scores a lot of points, but we don’t have a useable running back. The snap count from the last two games: Smallwood 52, Adams 37, Clement 31. It’s clear that Adams is playing the Blount role, while Smallwood and Clement are unimpressive in their utility roles. You want no part of Adams this week, as he’s only getting carries, and that Saints have allowed a league-low 3.28 yards per carry. Despite eight running backs totaling 10 or more carries against them, none have eclipsed 69 rushing yards, including Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley. Smallwood has had the primary role as the pass-catcher, and though it hasn’t been a matchup to attack, pass-catchers do fare much better against the Saints. But here’s the thing… there’s been just three running backs to top 12.7 PPR points and finish as a top-20 option against the Saints, and every single one of them totaled at least 18 touches, something that won’t happen in this backfield. Smallwood is a high-end RB4, Adams is a touchdown-dependent RB4, and Clement is a “I’m just playing him because I have no one else” RB5 after touching the ball just 11 times the last two weeks and netting just 13 yards.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: Did the Saints running backs catch the Eagles at the right time? After going toe-to-toe with the Bears, Ravens, and Saints as the best run-defense in the league, they’ve really struggled in two of the last four weeks against Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. It’s possible that the divisional familiarity plays a part in that, as the Eagles have held every other TEAM of running backs to 55 yards or less yards on the ground. Ingram and Kamara both have tremendous skill-sets and play behind an incredible offensive line that ranks top-three in the league (maybe No. 1), which leads to Kamara walking into the end zone half the time. Seriously, he makes it look so easy at times, it’s kind of dumb. In the five games together, Kamara has 87 total touches (67 rush, 20 rec) while Ingram has 74 touches (63 rush, 11 rec), so it’s still roughly a 55/45 split, though Kamara has received 23 red zone touches compared to eight for Ingram. You’re playing Kamara as an elite RB1 every single week, while Ingram should be played as an RB2 most weeks, especially when the Saints are projected to score 31.5 points. The Eagles have allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season, but the Saints running backs are the outlier on every one of those lists. Kamara is a great tournament play even at his price because of his gamescript-proof role, combined with the 79.2 percent completion rate the Eagles allow to running backs.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: It’s now been two mediocre games for Jeffery, as he’s totaled just 83 yards combined against the Jaguars and Cowboys, though they are two of the top-three against receivers. The Saints, however, are not in that category. As a matter of fact, they’re at the opposite end. No. 1, to be precise. Here’s the lone issue… He’s going to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, their best cornerback who’s played well since getting slayed by Mike Evans in Week 1. Since that game, he’s allowed just 24-of-34 passing for 314 yards and one touchdown. It’s worth noting that the Saints trust him one-on-one and Jeffery has been one of the better contested catch receivers in the NFL over the last five years, so it’s not an auto-avoid like some may think, especially in a game with an over/under of 55 points. Count me in as someone who believes he can post WR2 numbers, even with Lattimore in coverage, though his upside is a bit capped for those who want to play him in tournaments.

Golden Tate: You were rented for eight games and it’s games like this where the Eagles really need him to pop-off against P.J. Williams, the Saints lackluster slot cornerback who’s continually been abused all year, allowing a 71.1 percent completion-rate, 13.8 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 9.0 targets in coverage. Some will wonder how he shut down Tyler Boyd last week, but that had to do with the Saints defensive scheme as a team, as they brought down safety help continually. That’s something they won’t be able to do with Ertz, Jeffery, and Agholor available as other options. The dome also helps footing for guys like Tate who use misdirection to their advantage before and after the catch. Don’t believe me? Here’s his splits over his career:

I’d say that’s a decent sample size, right? Knowing that his matchup is with the worst cornerback on the Saints roster, I’d say he should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 this week despite just four targets in his first game with the team.

Nelson Agholor: He’s going to benefit from Jeffery this week, as Marshon Lattimore will surely shadow him, while Agholor will face off against Eli Apple, who hasn’t lived up to the fourth-round pick the Saints traded for him a couple weeks ago, as he’s allowed 17-of-23 passing for 236 yards and two touchdowns in his three games with the team. Yikes, right? Only Marcus Peters has allowed more in that time. Agholor saw a surprising eight targets last week and caught five of them for 83 yards, though the majority of them came on a 51-yard catch that was impressive. The Eagles are going to have to play keep-up with the Saints this game and it should lead to plenty of pass attempts, which ultimately leads to targets for everyone, and Agholor has a very favorable matchup. He’s a solid player to stick into a tournament lineup who could go for 100 yards and a touchdown, though his history on the perimeter isn’t as great as it was in the slot. He should be looked at as an upside WR4 play in this game.

Michael Thomas: Every week it seems that Thomas catches everything thrown his direction, as he’s now caught 78-of-87 targets that have been thrown his way for 950 yards and seven touchdowns. Those would be good numbers at the end of the season, let alone after nine weeks of play. He’s seen a massive 54.7 percent of the wide receiver targets in this offense, so seeing that wide receivers average 24.2 targets per game against the Eagles, you know that he’s in for a big week. They legitimately may be down all three starting cornerbacks in this game, which is straight-up scary to think of what he could do against the combination of Rasul Douglas, rookie Avonte Maddox, and rookie Chandon Sullivan. Douglas has faced just 75 targets in his career, Maddox has seen 12 targets, and Sullivan has played 18 snaps. So, yeah, Thomas is an elite-level WR1 play.

Tre’Quan Smith: The lack of volume has clearly affected the targets for Smith, but when the team scores 51 points and you don’t see a single target, it’s an issue for fantasy owners. We don’t want to completely freak out because he did play more snaps than any other wide receiver on the team, but the Saints obviously don’t feel the need to make him a large part of the playbook. With the Eagles down so many players in the secondary, it’s a matchup where the Saints can really target anyone they want, so Smith is worth a shot in some tournament lineups, as we’ve seen his big-play ability. In season-long, it’s tough to justify him as anything more than a low-end WR4, but I’ll admit it’s tempting to play him in this game knowing he’s an every-down player.

TEs
Zach Ertz: It’s quite insane what we’ve seen happen with Ertz this year, as he’s already hit the 100-target mark and is on pace for 178 this season. To give you a gauge as to how insane that is, there’s been just one tight end over the last five years who’s totaled more than 133 targets (Jimmy Graham in 2013 – 142 targets). The Eagles are essentially using him as an extension of the run-game, as his 7.6-yard average depth of target pales in comparison to Rob Gronkowski‘s 12.4 and O.J. Howard‘s 11.4. It’s obviously worked well for them and Ertz’s fantasy owners, as he’s scored at least 12.3 PPR points in each of his last eight games, including five games over 20 PPR points. The Saints bring on a tough test, though, as they’ve defended tight ends as good as anyone in the NFL. They’ve yet to allow a tight end more than four receptions or 54 yards against them, and they’ve allowed just one touchdown. The Saints were elite against tight ends last year, too, as they allowed the fewest receptions (43) and yards (457) to them, though they did allow five touchdowns. Look, I’m not suggesting you even get the slightest thought in your head to sit Ertz, that’ll never happen. When writing about automatic starts like him in this article is for those who play DFS, and you should know that it’s a brutal matchup to use him in cash lineups. He’s still going to be ranked as a top-two tight end for me this week, but you should be underweight in DFS.

Ben Watson: It’s really tough to play Watson confidently because he’s used so sporadically in the offense, seeing anywhere from zero targets to six targets. They’re obviously valuable coming from Brees, who boasts a near 80-percent completion rate, but you must understand the risk when playing him. If there’s one position the Eagles have defended quite well this year, it’s tight ends, as they’ve allowed just 6.5 yards per target and a 61.2 percent completion rate to them. The only tight end who’s totaled more than 41 yards against them was O.J. Howard back in Week 2, who scored a 75-yard touchdown where most of that came after the catch, something Watson won’t do at this point in his career. Knowing that Brees has not thrown the ball more than 35 times since back in Week 4, combined with the lack of production to tight ends for the Eagles, he’s just a middling TE2 this week.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Total: 45.5
Line: CHI by 2.5

QBs
Kirk Cousins: Raise your hand if you think Cousins has had a really good year. While most of you probably did, it hasn’t been that great when you consider he’s thrown the fifth-most passes in the league. He currently sits as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback in points per game, right in-between Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. His 7.4 yards per attempt ranks behind guys like Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr, which is odd considering who he’s throwing to. Think about it this way – his two best games this year have come when he’s thrown 48 attempts against the Packers and 50 attempts against the Rams. The Bears have shown to be an elite run-defense, so it’s unlikely they move the ball down the field via the run, leaving the responsibility to Cousins. The Bears defense definitely had a lapse in tackling over Weeks 6 and 7 when they allowed Brock Osweiler and Tom Brady to combine for 657 yards and six touchdowns, but have righted the ship since then, though two of the next three games were against Sam Darnold and Nathan Peterman. But with Khalil Mack returning against the Lions, the Bears pass-rush came back alive, as they racked up six sacks against a recently struggling Lions offensive line. In the five games Mack has played healthy, the Bears have 24 sacks. In the four other games, they had just six sacks. Cousins has played well under pressure for the most part but will make bad decisions at times. With Stefon Diggs set to return this week, Cousins is on the high-end QB2 radar, but he’s far from a lock for production given his offensive line ranks 31st in pass protection, according to PFF.

Mitch Trubisky: We consider Cam Newton an elite fantasy quarterback, right? At what point do we realize that Trubisky is a very similar option. While they don’t offer consistency in the passing game from week-to-week, their legs can carry them through. Look at their numbers side-by-side: Trubisky 2,304 yards and 19 passing touchdowns. Newton 2,086 yards and 17 passing touchdowns. Trubisky 320 rushing yards and three touchdowns, Newton 352 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He played his best game as a professional last week and it’s possible he grew with Allen Robinson out of the lineup, so getting him back was big. The issue with all this glamour, though, is the Vikings are coming to town and they’ve returned to the elite defense we saw back in 2017. In fact, if we remove just one game against the Rams while traveling across the country to play on Thursday, they’ve allowed just 232.3 passing yards per game with 0.9 touchdowns and 1.0 interceptions. Their two games before the bye week were against Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees, who combined for just 319 yards and one touchdown. They have allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, so there’s hope on the ground, but Trubisky isn’t likely to finish in QB1 territory this week. He’s more of a middling QB2 in this game with better streamers on the waiver wire, but don’t drop him, as his upcoming schedule should net plenty of good results.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: The Vikings run-game hasn’t really clicked on all cylinders this year, and it’s probably the reason they average just 21.9 rushing attempts per game. The Cook/Murray combo looked good against the Lions, but it’ll be a different type of game against the Bears, who have allowed just 68.3 rushing yards per game to opposing teams of running backs. They also just allowed their first rushing touchdown of the year, and it’s not due to lack of attempts, as running backs have received 15 touches in goal-to-go situations. They have been able to be exploited through the air, though, as we’ve seen them allow three running backs record at least 38 yards through the air against them over the last four games. Cook has played three full games, and in them, he’s totaled 16 targets, so he’s the clear-cut preferred receiving option. Because of that, he can be plugged-in as a low-end RB2 while Murray is strictly a touchdown-dependent RB4 in this game and not one you should aim to play.

Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard: We’ve watched the Bears ride Howard over the last three weeks, as gamescripts have been in their favor as seven-plus point favorites in each game. Because of that, he’s totaled 47 carries to Cohen’s 18 carries, but that time is coming to an end this week. The Vikings are going to be the most competitive team they’ve played in a while and their run-defense has allowed just 3.66 yards per carry on the season (6th-lowest) with two rushing touchdowns (2nd-lowest). In the two games he met them last year, he totaled just 85 yards on 28 carries without a touchdown. Knowing that Howard has seen exactly five targets over the last six games, he’s nothing more than a mediocre RB3 option this week. This is a week where we should see a lot more Cohen usage in the passing-game, as the Vikings have allowed 7.54 yards per target to running backs, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. They’ve allowed at least 60 receiving yards to running backs in 5-of-9 games this year, and Cohen is currently the No. 5 in receiving yards among running backs, ahead of Todd Gurley and James Conner. Most don’t realize that Cohen has done a lot for the wide receivers because of the threat he brings when on the field, which is now at 56 percent over the last three weeks. He can be played as a solid RB2 this week who’s got decent upside in PPR formats.

WRs
Adam Thielen: It was a lot tougher for Thielen to succeed without Diggs in the lineup in Week 9, as he totaled seven targets that netted just 4/22/1 against the Lions, ending his record-tying streak of eight 100-yard games in a row. The Bears have done well in coverage but have had lapses in their tackling in the back-end, leading to some big plays, but Thielen hasn’t been doing much after the catch (3.8 yards after catch) this year. He’ll see Bryce Callahan most of the time, who’s been much better the last few years than most have given him credit for, as he’s now in his fourth year, and has never allowed over a 79.0 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of a season and has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns allowed (3). He held Julian Edelman to just five catches for 36 yards and a touchdown back in Week 7, which was the closest competition he’s had to Thielen. You’re starting Thielen as a WR1 this week in season-long leagues, as the Vikings will need to move the ball via the air, but it’s not a matchup that you should feel the need to attack in DFS cash formats.

Stefon Diggs: He’s told reporters that he plans on playing this week and it was a good sign when he returned to the practice field with his teammates this week. Diggs has a bad history of trying to play through injuries and being listed on the injury report, so it’d be reassuring to see him removed before this game. The Bears don’t shadow wide receivers, so he’d see a mix of Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara, who have combined for six interceptions this year, though they’ve also allowed over 14.0 yards per reception between them, with a decent amount of yardage after the catch. That’s what it’ll take for Diggs to pop-off, because the Bears have allowed just two wide receivers to total more than 20 PPR points against them and both receivers totaled over 100 yards after the catch in those games. Randall Cobb essentially did it on one play that won the game, while Albert Wilson was the other who terrorized the Bears secondary after the catch. Diggs does rank as the No. 13 wide receiver in yards after the catch despite missing a game, so he’s the most likely to take advantage if he’s healthy. If he’s removed from the injury report, start him confidently as a WR2. If he’s limited throughout the week, he’s more of a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Allen Robinson: There are subtle things that Robinson does on the football field that go overlooked all the time, but take my word for it when I say he’s a top-20 talent in the game at his position. He returned to the offense with a boom last week, totaling 6/133/2 on eight targets against a Darius Slay-less Lions secondary. The matchup this week is going to be Xavier Rhodes, who is a big, physical cornerback who’s been dealing with a foot injury over the past few weeks, though the bye week likely helped him heal up. Truth be told, Rhodes hasn’t been himself much of the year, allowing a career-high 68.3 percent completion percentage and an 88.7 QB Rating, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. The Bears have a lot of options in the passing-game that they don’t need to attack this matchup aggressively, though Robinson does move into the slot about 37 percent of the time, which would free him of Rhodes’ coverage. Robinson is on the WR3 radar this week in a matchup that’s not as bad as it looked pre-season.

Taylor Gabriel: We don’t know if Gabriel’s knee injury is bothering him, but knowing he played his usual 81 percent of snaps, we have to assume he’s healthy. He saw a season-low three targets last week and didn’t record a catch, but his final stat line could’ve easily been 40-plus yards and a touchdown, as the defender got his hand in at the last second on a bomb from Trubisky. Gabriel has now seen 14 targets 20-plus yards down the field, which ranks 19th in the league, and the Vikings have allowed eight pass plays of 40-plus yards, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. Trae Waynes is the cornerback he’ll see most of the time, who has plenty of speed, but he’s also been burned for 67 yards and a touchdown on five go-routes in coverage. Gabriel is almost never going to be a high-floor option, but he offers upside in the WR4/5 range now that Robinson is back.

Anthony Miller: With Robinson out of the lineup, it allowed Miller to develop some chemistry with his quarterback, as they’ve now connected on 10 of their last 12 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. Prior to that, they were 14-of-29 for 161 yards with three touchdowns. He’ll match-up with Mackensie Alexander this week, who is a third-year cornerback coming onto the field in three-wide sets. He’s allowed a rather-high 82.4 percent completion rate in his coverage but has still yet to allow a touchdown on 34 targets. Knowing the Vikings have allowed just seven touchdowns in eight non-Rams games, the odds are stacked against Miller finding the end zone for the fifth time in the last eight games he’s played. The arrow is trending up for the rookie, but in what’s projected to be a low-scoring game, he’s just a WR4/5-type option.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: If you’ve looked at Rudolph’s box scores this year, I’m sorry. It’s rather ugly for someone who was considered a locked-in as a top-eight tight end pick by most analysts (full disclosure, I had him at TE9). He’s now gone five straight games with 41 yards or less and hasn’t scored a touchdown since way back in Week 3. He’s not getting targeted a lot, but he’s still someone who can score two touchdowns at any time, and the Bears might be a good match for him. They allow just 6.38 yards per target to the position (ranks 5th-lowest), but they’ve allowed a touchdown every 11.0 targets to tight ends (6th-most often). They’ve allowed touchdowns to five different tight ends this year, even though they’ve yet to allow one more than 49 yards. Rudolph is what he is at this point, a streaming option, and though he’s touchdown-dependent, this might be a week where he gets one.

Trey Burton: The roller coaster that Burton owners are on cracks me up, as I swear I get 10-plus questions a week where an owner asks if they should drop him. Let me save you the tweet – the answer is no. Despite having just one huge game this year, he ranks as the No. 8 tight end through 10 weeks. He’s seen four or less targets in five of the last six games, which is odd, but he’s scored a touchdown in four of the last six games, so we have to trust the offense. The Vikings have been somewhat mediocre against tight ends this year, as they’re average across the board allowing 8.46 yards per target (10th), 66.7 percent completion rate (16th), and have allowed a touchdown every 21.0 targets (23rd). The one positive here is that they’ve played a similar version of this offense back in Week 5 when Zach Ertz totaled 10 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. While Burton is playing the Ertz role, he’s not seeing that many targets. Good tight ends have performed rather well against the Vikings, so consider Burton a solid TE1 who might just see more targets this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 64.0
Line: LAR by 4.0

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: The game we’ve all had marked on our calendars for some time now. It won’t take place in Mexico due to the bad field conditions, though you should expect Chiefs fans to travel well to Los Angeles for this game. Mahomes is coming off his second-worst game of the season (fantasy-wise), which still netted 20 fantasy points, which tells you just how magical his season has been. Bring on the Rams defense, the team that was supposed to be an unstoppable force, the team that’s now allowed seven passing touchdowns on the last 62 pass attempts against them. That’s right, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson combined for a touchdown every 8.9 pass attempts against them and each finished as a top-five fantasy option. Since playing Derek Carr and Sam Bradford over the first two weeks, the Rams defense has allowed 167-of-261 passing for 2,146 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. That 8.2 yards per attempt would be the fifth-most this season, while the 7.3 percent touchdown rate would be the third-highest mark allowed. The lone downside is that teams average just 58.9 plays per game against the Rams, and that’s likely going to continue in this game unless the Chiefs can slow down Gurley, which is unlikely. The Rams aren’t going to be able to stop Mahomes through the air with their defense, so you should look for them to try and keep him off the field as much as possible. Mahomes is an elite QB1 play, but if the Rams are wise, this game will feature a heavy-dose of Gurley.

Jared Goff: It really hurts Goff and the entire offense to lose a player like Cooper Kupp, but as they say, the show must go on. There were two games this year where Goff had to play without him (49ers, Packers), and in those games he totaled 202/2 and 295/3, so he was still very playable. The Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but they haven’t been as great of a matchup that everyone thinks. Since Week 4, they’ve allowed just 172-of-278 passing for 1,980 yards, eight touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That amounts to just a 61.9 percent completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt, with 1.1 touchdowns and 1.4 interceptions per game. So when everyone says they’ve allowed more passing yards than anyone else (they have), a lot of it comes from back-to-back 420-plus yard games in Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents have also averaged 69.0 plays per game against the Chiefs, which helps rack up yardage, though the Rams would be wise to try and keep Mahomes off the field against their struggling defense, and they can do that with Gurley. Goff is still a rock-solid QB1 play this week, but it should be Gurley’s time to shine.

RBs
Kareem Hunt: As crazy as it sounds, Hunt oddly has just one game with more than 100 rushing yards this year. He’s been adding a ton of value in the passing-game ever since Week 4, but it struck me as odd when going through his numbers this year. The Cardinals should have been a smash spot for him, so winding up with just 96 total yards without a touchdown was a disappointment. He didn’t appear to be running with that sense of urgency we know he can in that game, but the Rams are likely to get anyone’s juices flowing. It was also his first game since Week 1 without scoring a touchdown, so I’m sure his fantasy owners approve. The Rams run-defense has been exposed over the last four games, as they’ve allowed the 49ers, Packers, Saints, and Seahawks running backs combine for 473 yards on 92 carries (5.14 yards per carry) with five touchdowns. They’ve also allowed another 98 yards and two touchdowns through the air in that time, so this is no longer a matchup to be afraid of. The only concern for Hunt is lack of possession for the Chiefs, as their opponents have averaged just 58.9 plays per game, while the Chiefs have allowed their opponents 69.0 plays per game. He’s still someone who should be played as an RB1 and it’d be shocking if he didn’t score at least once in this game.

Todd Gurley: Are you ready to carry your team, Mr. Gurley? You know when the stars align just right and you get the best of both worlds? Well, we have the team who’s the worst in the league against running backs, while we have the clear-cut No. 1 running back in the league right now. There’s not an area the Chiefs have excelled in against running backs, as they’ve allowed 5.09 yards per carry (third-highest mark), 1.98 PPR points per target through the air to running backs (most in NFL), and 15 total touchdowns (most in NFL). The 69.0 plays per game they allow are also huge, as it allows the Rams to get Gurley the ball as much as possible. There’s not much that needs to be said here, outside of the fact that Gurley is the best play on the board this week against a Chiefs team that’s allowed seven 20-plus point performances to running backs.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: We’ve seen Hill moved into the slot more and more as the season’s gone on in order to evade top tier cornerbacks and bracketing coverage, including 44 percent of his routes in Week 10. He’s scored six touchdowns on 34 targets in the slot this season, but the Chiefs don’t even need to move him there to win in Week 11, as his matchup against Marcus Peters is a good one. The only cornerback who’s allowed more yards and touchdowns than Peters in coverage is Malcolm Butler, which says a lot. Peters has continually been burned this season, so much that the Rams are likely going to have to dedicate a safety to bracket Hill all game, which could give them issues with Kelce, Hunt, and others. The only way to slow down Hill is by getting hands on him at the line of scrimmage, which is something Peters has been awful with this year, as he’s seen 10 targets against press coverage, and allowed eight receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns. On top of all that, the Chiefs had Peters on their roster prior to last year, so they know his weaknesses more than most. Hill is an elite WR1 play.

Sammy Watkins: The Chiefs have been saying that Watkins will be playing this week after sitting out Week 10, though I’m not guaranteeing anything when it comes to Watkins and his feet. He played through a foot injury in 2016 and his efficiency suffered a lot. Let’s show the splits:

While I’m not going to say that his foot is so bad that he’ll require another surgery (like he did in 2016), but there was enough concern for them to do an MRI on it, though it revealed no structural damage. With their bye coming in Week 12, you must wonder if they take it easy on him, though he likely wants to get back out there against his old team. Between Sam Shields and Troy Hill, they’re no match for a healthy Watkins, so if he practices all week, you have to trot him out there as an upside high-end WR3. If he’s limited in practice all week and considered questionable, he’s more of a risky WR3/4. Update: After getting in a limited practice on Thursday, Watkins missed practice on Friday, though they’ve still said they expect him to suit up for the game. 

Chris Conley: With Watkins out of the lineup last week, we saw Conley jump into a full-time role but he only netted one catch for 22 yards against the Cardinals. With Watkins due back, it’ll send Conley back to his typical 50-70 percent of snaps role, which does offer some value in this game, though he may have the toughest matchup of the Chiefs receivers, as Nickell Robey-Coleman will be on him about 60 percent of the time. He’s been the one solid cornerback for the Rams this year, allowing just 8.5 yards per reception, a 62.2 percent catch-rate, and one touchdown on 37 targets in coverage. That’s obviously not great, but in a game with a 64-point over/under, he’s not the worst WR5 dart throw for a touchdown.

Brandin Cooks: With Kupp out for the season, we could see Cooks’ target totals get a slight bump, though his role doesn’t change all that much. In the two games Kupp was out earlier this year, Cooks saw five and eight targets, so nothing significant. The Chiefs secondary has been much better than most give them credit for, but Cooks is someone to watch in this game. The Chiefs have allowed 43 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is the most in the NFL, and five more than the next closest team. He’ll need the big play because as a whole, the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers. They’ve allowed just 1.44 PPR points per target on the year, which is better than the Jaguars mark of 1.50 per target. The reason they’ve allowed some points, though, is due to the sheer amount of volume against them, as they’ve faced 242 wide receiver targets, which is the second-most in the league. The Rams always tend to break trends with opposing teams, so you don’t want to rely on much data when projecting them, as they are the outliers in results. There may not be as many Goff pass attempts as some would like, but Cooks should still be started as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Robert Woods: He did it again and now has nine straight games with 70 or more yards, though he oddly hasn’t scored since way back in Week 4. Those opportunities are coming, though, as he’ll move to more of a slot-heavy role that gets a lot of the red zone looks in the offense. In the two games Kupp was out this year, Woods ran 66 percent of his routes in the slot, totaling nine catches for 133 yards on 11 targets on them. Through 10 games, eight of the touchdowns Goff has thrown have come in the slot. The Chiefs have Kendall Fuller manning that area of the field and he’s done a good job as of late, allowing just 6/50/0 to Larry Fitzgerald, 6/50/0 to Jarvis Landry, 4/57/0 to Emmanuel Sanders, and 3/27/0 to Tyler Boyd. I’ll continue to say that the Rams are a different animal and are the outlier when I look at the performances against many teams. The level of consistency from Woods demands WR2 ranking, but when he starts adding touchdowns to that, he may creep into the WR1 conversation. In a game with 64-point total, he’s a high-end WR2 this week.

Josh Reynolds: With Kupp out for the year, Reynolds enters the fold in three wide receiver sets, which is more often than any other team in the NFL. In the two games with Kupp out in Weeks 7-8, Reynolds played 120 snaps compared to 125 for Cooks and 126 for Woods, so he’s a full-time player. The production likely won’t be as predictable with him, but he comes with upside in this offense, as shown by his two-touchdown performance in Week 8, though he did only see six targets in those two games combined. With Woods moving into the slot two-thirds of the time, Reynolds will take his spot at LWR most of the time, which would put him against Orlando Scandrick, who’s been a surprise on the perimeter, allowing just a 49 percent catch-rate and 9.3 yards per reception this season, and he’s done that on a 65-target sample size. Reynolds now enters the WR4 conversation, though his matchup isn’t as good as some think. The Chiefs have allowed just seven top-36 performances to wide receivers this year and have allowed a touchdown every 34.6 targets to wide receivers, which is the best in the NFL.

TEs
Travis Kelce: When you see that Kelce has a matchup with a team that’s allowed 20-point performances to both Jared Cook and George Kittle, it’s time to get excited. The 13.9 yards per reception the Rams allow to tight ends ranks as the third-highest in the league, behind only the Raiders and Broncos. You likely don’t need to be reminded that Kelce racked up 7/78/1 and 6/79/1 against the Broncos this year. He’s seen at least seven targets in eight of the last nine games and is playing in a game that boasts the highest total I’ve ever seen at 64 points. Rams safety John Johnson has been a bit hit-or-miss this year in coverage, as he’s intercepted three passes, but he’s also allowed 15-of-19 passing for 156 yards and three touchdowns on the other targets. He’s seemingly getting better as the year goes on, but against Kelce, you’d better be elite if you plan to stop him. He’s the TE1 this week.

Gerald Everett: Many have wondered what the Kupp injury will do for the tight ends in the Rams offense and it’s a good question, because they obviously felt like Everett would make a big impact at some point when they drafted him in the second-round last year. Everett has been seeing more targets as of late, too, as he’s racked up 18 of them over the last six games, which may not seem like much, but after seeing just five targets over the first four games, we’re moving in the right direction. The Chiefs have struggled with tight ends this year, too, allowing the second-most yardage (700) to them on the season, behind only the Bucs. Of the 10 starting tight ends who’ve played against them, they’ve allowed at least 51 yards and/or a touchdown to nine of them. The only one who didn’t was Antonio Gates. The matchup is a good one, though Everett is still sharing snaps with Tyler Higbee, though it’s been Everett getting the targets lately. He’s an upside TE2 this week who just might be involved more than most think.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 49.5
Line: SEA by 2.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: Our worst fears became a reality against the Dolphins last week, as there wasn’t even a fight, leading Rodgers to throw the ball just 28 times and finish with another ho-hum fantasy performance. He’s now scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, so while he’s delivered an ultra-consistent floor, he’s lacked the league-winning upside. The Seahawks haven’t been a team to allow top-tier performances to quarterbacks, either. They’ve still yet to allow a quarterback to finish in the top-10 against them in any given week, and that’s despite playing Jared Goff twice, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Mitch Trubisky. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 1 to find the only time they allowed more than two passing touchdowns in a game. Since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle, they’ve played the Packers and Rodgers on five separate occasions. He’s thrown for more than 249 yards once, while throwing for more than two touchdowns once. In those games, he’s averaged just 243.6 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. With this game being on prime-time in Seattle, you know the crowd noise will affect some things on the Packers side of the ball. The Seahawks opponents have averaged just 59.8 plays per game (5th-fewest in NFL), so it’s not likely to be a massive game for Rodgers, who should be considered just a middling to low-end QB1 for this game.

Russell Wilson: It’s the oddest thing I’ve watched in some time, but Wilson now has 14 passing touchdowns on his last 126 pass attempts. That’s a ridiculous 11.1 percent, but that’s not even what I’m talking about. His touchdown to yardage ratio is another thing that cannot keep up. He’s thrown a touchdown once every 93.7 yards this year, which is a higher ratio than Andrew Luck (95.1) and Patrick Mahomes (101.6). He’s clearly going to need a bump in volume to keep his QB1 production up, unless, of course, he starts running again. The last two weeks have been promising in that area of the game, as he’s rushed for 133 yards, which topped his 77 rushing yards from the first six games combined. The Packers defense is not generating enough pressure to cover up their deficiencies in the secondary, though not many teams have wanted to go toe-to-toe with Rodgers, so they limit the pass attempts. Their opponents have averaged just 32.7 attempts per game (ranks 6th-fewest) and if you were to take out the Kirk Cousins 48-attempt game in Week 2, that number would drop to 27.1 per game. The Packers have also allowed just 102 yards and one touchdown on the ground to running backs, so it’ll be tough for Wilson to deliver a high-ceiling, but quarterbacks have been able to remain somewhat efficient against the Packers, so he remains on the low-end QB1 radar.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: We no longer have the question of who the starting running back and workhorse is for the Packers, eh? Despite his fumble against the Patriots, Mike McCarthy decided to stay with Jones, and it was the smart move, as Jones trampled the Dolphins for 172 total yards and two touchdowns. There hasn’t been a game this year where Jones has totaled less than 5.1 yards per carry, so adding a high-floor to his carries nets great results. The Seahawks have played a couple other high efficiency backs the last few weeks in Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon who combined for 254 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries (7.26 yards per carry). Not to say Jones is on that level, but there’s a lot of similarities. All three teams have viable passing attacks with elite quarterbacks under center, while Jones now shares the workhorse title. Another positive from the Week 10 game against Miami was that Jones saw five targets while Williams saw none, giving him what is hopefully a gamescript-proof role in the offense. Trot Jones out there as a high-end RB2 with no regrets. Williams is now just a high-end handcuff to Jones who would become an every-week play if something were to happen to Jones.

Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Rashaad Penny: The emergence of Penny kind of happened before our eyes in Week 10, though it’s far from a sure thing that he’s out there starting this week. In fact, he’s likely back down to third on the depth chart with Carson likely to return. Davis did total one fewer carry than Penny, but he did see all six targets in the passing-game. The Packers will be without linebacker Nick Perry this week, who suffered a knee injury against the Dolphins, though he hasn’t offered much game-changing play this year. Their strong safety Kentrell Brice is also out with an ankle injury, so the Packers are going to be missing some pieces on defense and the Seahawks offensive line has been generating a push up front this year. I’d fully expect the Seahawks to employ a run-heavy offense against the Packers who, even at full-strength, have allowed 4.65 yards per carry this year. They’ve only faced three running backs this season who’ve totaled 15 or more carries, and each of those running backs finished as top-18 options. It’s unlikely we hear much about who will start, but I’m assuming that it’s Carson, though all the running backs will see some work. It’s a risky proposition starting any of them, but let’s go ahead and say Carson is an RB3, while Davis is in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 conversation, and Penny is just an emergency RB4 who might total less than five touches.

WRs
Davante Adams: It may not have been the volume-heavy day that Adams owners were hoping for last week, but he didn’t need it while scoring on two of his seven targets. Him and Rodgers had a few miscommunications in this game and one that would have led to a third touchdown, but they’ll get it right. The Seahawks don’t have a shadow cornerback, so the Packers can essentially pick who Adams lines up against, which is extremely attractive for fantasy owners. The biggest weakness on their roster is nickel cornerback Justin Coleman, who is coming off a game in which he allowed eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in coverage. Adams hasn’t traveled into the slot very often this year, but when he does, it nets great results as he’s caught 14-of-19 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Why not run him in the slot more than 19 percent of the time? Oh, McCarthy, right. I’m still not worried about Shaquill Griffin or Tre Flowers in coverage, though they’ve limited the big plays. Adams is a wide receiver you plug into lineups as a WR1 regardless of matchup, and this one is no different.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: With Randall Cobb out of the lineup last week, Valdes-Scantling moved back into his near full-time slot role, which is great for his projection as slot targets are worth more than perimeter targets. That’s precisely the case against the Seahawks, as they have former undrafted free agent Justin Coleman manning the slot. If there’s one area of the field where the Seahawks have struggled, it’s covering slot receivers, as Emmanuel Sanders tagged them for 10/135/1, Cooper Kupp for 6/90/1, and Keenan Allen for 6/124/0. Those account for three of the four top four performances allowed by the Seahawks this season. If you own Valdes-Scantling, you probably want to plug him in as a WR3 this week, as Cobb is out again.

Doug Baldwin: It hasn’t been the greatest season for Baldwin, who now has 41 yards or less in 5-of-7 games this season. While the knee injuries accounted for two of those games, it’s clear that he’s just not as big of a part of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense as he’s been in years past. The volume has also been down for the Seahawks offense, as Wilson has thrown the ball more than 26 times just once over the last seven games, so if you’re not scoring, you’re unfortunately a liability on fantasy teams. As mentioned in Wilson’s notes, teams haven’t thrown much against the Packers this year, so it’s unlikely we see the volume increase much. It’s only a matter of time before some of the touchdowns start flowing to Baldwin, though you cannot think of him as an every-week play moving forward. As for this week, he’s back on the WR3 radar with a matchup against Bashaud Breeland this Thursday. He’s playing due to injuries all over the field, as Tramon Williams has move back to safety, with rookies Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson on the perimeter. Breeland hurt his groin in Week 10, though he says he’s okay. He’s someone who’d have issues with Baldwin if he was playing at 100 percent. There’s worry here based on his lack of numbers this year, but that’s the case with most WR3 types.

Tyler Lockett: He’s now caught a touchdown once every 6.3 targets this season, and no, it’s not going to stay that way. When Wilson starts to experience regression, it’ll hit Lockett harder than most, as he’s seen just 21 targets over the last five games combined. He’s topped 67 yards just twice all season but sits as the No. 22 wide receiver on the season due to the touchdowns. His matchup this week will be against the rookie duo of Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson, though if Kevin King is ready, he’d start over Jackson. Alexander has been phenomenal in coverage, allowing just a 53.5 percent catch-rate with just one touchdown on 43 targets, while Jackson has struggled a bit more than they’d like, allowing a 69.2 percent catch-rate and 13.9 yards per reception. Over the last five weeks, the target distribution to the wide receivers goes like this: Lockett 21, Baldwin 21, Moore 21. No, I’m not making this up. Lockett is clearly a favorite of Wilson’s in the red zone, so he remains on the WR3 radar, though when that touchdown regression kicks in, he’s going to feel it.

David Moore: The hype has died down the last two weeks, as Moore has finished with just 16 yards in each of the last two contests, though he does lead the team with 10 targets in those games. As mentioned in the Lockett notes, all three starting wide receivers are tied with 21 targets over the last five games, so Moore hasn’t fallen off the map. Similar to Lockett and Baldwin, his value will come down to touchdowns. If there’s one area the Packers secondary has struggled, it’s allowing touchdowns to wide receivers. They’ve allowed a touchdown every 13.9 targets to them, which ranks as the seventh-most often in the league. While Baldwin and Lockett are clearly superior talents, Moore is still someone who’s in the WR4 conversation.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: Has the honeymoon ended with the Packers and Graham? He’s now seen just 11 targets over the last three weeks, including a season-low one target in Week 10. Going up against his former team should provide some extra oomph in Graham’s game, though the matchup isn’t a great one. Safety Bradley McDougald has been solid in coverage this year, though he’s also been trying to play through a knee injury as of late and needed to be pulled during the Week 10 game against the Rams. While in the game, he allowed 5-of-5 passing for 33 yards and a touchdown, so he may not be at 100 percent. Coming into that game, he’d allowed just one touchdown on 26 targets. The only tight ends to finish top-10 against them were Trey Burton and Tyler Higbee, who tallied just 45 combined yards, but each scored a touchdown. If McDougald is out, you’d definitely upgrade Graham’s matchup to a solid TE1, but he’s looking more like a middling to low-end TE1 than one who’s a must-play if McDougald suits up.

Nick Vannett: All it took for Vannett to break out was apparently Ed Dickson being active. Over the last two weeks with Dickson on the field, Vannett has seen 10 targets, bringing in seven of them for 60 yards and two touchdowns. In those two games, Vannett has run 44 routes compared to 30 routes for Dickson, so he’s the guy to trust (if you want/need to trust any tight end from this offense). This week, however, it’s not a great matchup for either of them, as the Packers are one of just two teams in the league who’ve still yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. They have allowed a somewhat respectable 8.04 yards per target to the position, but the Packers biggest weakness in the red zone is to wide receivers, making Vannett a weak TE2 option this week.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.