After a somewhat crazy week of fantasy football, I was brought to the realization that many fantasy football players are still too results-oriented in their reactions to what takes place on the field. The one that got under my skin in Week 10 was none other than the three-target, three-touchdown Eric Ebron.

There have been 60 top-12 tight ends over the last five years (because math, duh). Would you like to take a guess how many of them totaled 48 or less targets? Why are we using the number 48? Well, because Ebron has totaled six targets over the last two weeks, which comes to three per week, or 48 over a full season. You probably don’t need me to tell you that there’ve been zero tight ends who’ve accomplished that. In fact, there’s been just three tight ends who snuck into the top-12 with less than 72 targets.

Yes, Andrew Luck is throwing touchdowns at an incredible rate, as is Russell Wilson. But here’s a newsflash – it won’t continue. Tyler Lockett has caught a touchdown every 6.3 targets. That won’t continue. Eric Ebron will not outproduce Jack Doyle over the rest of the season if their snaps/target totals remain the same they’ve been over the last two weeks. Does that mean Ebron is useless? Absolutely not.

We need to understand that we’re playing a game that has a lot of volatility built into it and it’s our job to put ourselves in the best position to limit that volatility. How do we do that? By taking a look at the mean over historical numbers. This is known as process over results and it’s something that all smart fantasy football players should follow. I mean, it’s why we’re here, right?

Matchup Links:
TEN at IND | PIT at JAC | CAR at DET | DAL at ATL | TB at NYG | HOU at WAS | CIN at BAL | OAK at ARI | DEN at LAC | PHI at NO | MIN at CHI | KC at LAR | GB at SEA

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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.

If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 48.0
Line: IND by 3.0

QBs
Marcus Mariota: He’s now put together back-to-back solid performances, though the volume has kept him from taking the leap into top-tier performances. Will that change this week against the Colts whose opponents average 36.1 pass attempts per game? A lot of that stems from the 65.8 plays per game that teams average against them, which ranks as the seventh-most in the league. The Colts have allowed a 71.9 percent completion rate to quarterbacks (2nd-highest) and 7.8 yards per attempt, so the volume may not even be necessary for a big performance. Since the start of Week 4, every quarterback not named Derek Anderson has been able to throw for at least two touchdowns and averaged at least 7.8 yards per attempt against the Colts, including Blake Bortles last week. The Colts have also failed to generate a single sack in three of their last five games, so Mariota should have more time to deliver accurate passes. The guy accounting for 42.2 percent of his air yards (Corey Davis) has a plus-matchup and running backs have accumulated 71 receptions against them (3rd-most), so the matchup suits him very well. He should be in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 conversation this week and makes for a solid streamer.

Andrew Luck: Here are Luck’s stats since the start of Week 4: 161-of-247 passing for 1,810 yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s thrown three-plus touchdowns in six straight games now, which is the fourth-longest streak in NFL history. The Titans are a pass-funnel defense that defends the run extremely well, though Tom Brady and the Patriots couldn’t expose it (may have had to do with it being Mike Vrabel‘s defense that knows them very well). But here’s the tidbit that affects Luck: They haven’t allowed a quarterback more than two passing touchdowns all season. They’ve allowed three quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 yards, but when it comes down to it, they’ve been money in the red zone. The lone weak spot on the Titans roster is at cornerback with Malcolm Butler, though the Titans apparently figured that out last week, and let Adoree Jackson shadow Josh Gordon. They’ve also essentially removed the tight end position from opponents, as they’ve held them to 32.8 yards per game and no touchdowns (though the competition has been weak). The Titans are one of just three teams who’ve still yet to allow a quarterback score 23 or more fantasy points. Still, with the way Luck has played, you must continue plugging him into your lineup as a QB1 whose coach is putting together impressive gameplans week over week. It’s not a week where you need to trust him in DFS cash lineups, though.

RBs
Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry: Even though Henry has gotten the glory while scoring four touchdowns over the last three weeks, this is clearly Lewis’ backfield right now. He’s totaled 64 touches in that time, while Henry has totaled 33, making this a near 70/30 split between the two. Lewis didn’t offer the efficiency most hoped for last week, totaling just 68 yards on 22 touches, but the Titans aren’t likely to change anything due to the results they’ve been having. The Colts have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher against them this year, while allowing just four rushing touchdowns (tied for eighth-fewest), meaning this isn’t likely to be a Henry game. They have, however, allowed 140.1 PPR points through the air to running backs, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. There’ve now been six different running backs who’ve totaled at least 50 yards through the air against them, including both Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon last week. Knowing that Lewis has the edge 39-10 in targets (nearly 80 percent of them), he’s the preferred play, though it’s hurting his value that he’s removed around the goal-line. Still, he should be considered a low-end RB2 this week while Henry is just a touchdown-dependent RB4.

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: We talked about the tough matchup for Mack last week and it reared its ugly head with a 38-yard performance. He’ll bounce-back but it might not be this week against the Titans, who have been one of the best run-defenses in the NFL. Not only have they allowed a pedestrian 3.89 yards per carry (8th-lowest), but they’ve held opponents to just three rushing touchdowns (3rd-fewest), and no receiving touchdowns. That makes just three total touchdowns for running backs against them, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. Knowing that they’re dominant on the ground, most would’ve expected them to suffer to pass-catching backs, but that hasn’t been the case. They’ve allowed just 1.19 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the best in the NFL. There has still yet to be a running back reach 18 PPR points against the Titans and they’ve played against James White, Sony Michel, and Ezekiel Elliott. It’s clear that Mack is no slam-dunk this week, though with six teams on their bye, he’s still startable, but don’t expect anything more than RB3-type numbers. Hines has totaled just four or less targets in each game Mack has played, so he’s not to be relied on outside of a weak RB4-type in PPR leagues.

WRs
Corey Davis: The high-volume season continues for Davis, as he’s now seen 30.6 percent of the team’s targets, 42.2 percent of their air yards, and 34.2 percent of their red zone targets. He’s seen 10 targets in each game out of their bye week, so they clearly felt like the lack of production at the start of the season wasn’t on him. The Colts present a plus-matchup for him, as they’ve allowed a 69.6 percent completion rate to wide receivers this year, so the volume should net a high catch total. Any time you get the ball in Davis’ hands, good things can happen, as he’s averaging 4.8 yards after the catch and is one of the tougher receivers to bring down. Dede Westbrook was the first receiver to see 10 targets against them this year and not finish as a top-16 wide receiver, and it’s clear he’s quite a different receiver than Davis. With the improved play from Mariota and the potentially increased volume this game, Davis is on the WR2 radar and should present a high-floor.

T.Y. Hilton: We’ve seen Hilton’s usage ramp up since returning from his injury as he’s seen 4, 5, and now 7 targets in his last three games. The three-catch, 77-yard performance against the Jaguars should be considered a positive considering Jalen Ramsey was in coverage all day. Against the Titans, he’s likely to see a lot of Adoree Jackson, who did a phenomenal job against Josh Gordon last week, though Gordon doesn’t flash the speed that Hilton does. Jackson does have low 4.4-second speed, so that’s notable. After allowing three touchdowns on his first 28 career targets in coverage, he’s allowed just three touchdowns on 148 targets since then. In two meetings with a similar secondary last year, Hilton was held to just 1/19/0 and 2/15/0, though the big asterisk is that he didn’t have Luck, which obviously makes a massive difference. Being the clear-cut No. 1 option at wide receiver will often give him the toughest matchup on the field, though the game-planning has been phenomenal. They even used Hilton in the slot 40 percent of the time against the Jaguars. Hilton is on the WR2 radar this week, though his matchup would’ve been much better if the Titans didn’t realize that Malcolm Butler wasn’t very good. The area that leaves hope is this… there have been five wide receivers to total 100-plus yards against the Titans. Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, and Tyrell Williams were among them, who all possess speed down the field.

Dontrelle Inman: With Ryan Grant out for a few weeks, Inman has made his way up the depth chart rather quickly and has totaled 11 targets over the last two weeks, hauling in 10 of them for 93 yards. He ran the second-most routes on the team last week, well ahead of Chester Rogers, and he even ran 47 percent of his routes from the slot. Knowing that the Titans stuff the run and that Adoree Jackson will likely shadow Hilton, we have to find Luck’s other outlets. Inman will see a mixture of Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, who have combined to allow a 70.8 percent completion rate in their coverage. While it’s possible that Inman will be passed by Grant on the depth chart after his first game back from a multi-week injury, but Inman’s efficiency cannot be overlooked. He’s worth a look as a WR5 in a week where there’s six teams on bye.

Ryan Grant: Did he lose his role as the No. 2 receiver for Luck? It’s possible as Dontrelle Inman has totaled 11 targets over the last two weeks, delivering strong results on them. Grant ran one fewer route than Inman, but saw just one target in the game, so it’s possible he’s fallen out of favor. While he has a plus matchup against Malcolm Butler this week, he’s not to be trusted until he earns back his quarterback’s trust.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: We don’t want to overreact to small sample sizes, but we do want to pay attention to trends, and it’s clear that the Titans want Smith more involved. Since their bye week, he’s totaled five catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. The results of the last two games massively outproduced what he did in the first seven games of the season (5 receptions, 44 yards, 0 touchdowns). The Colts have been struggling against tight ends, too, allowing a 75-percent completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt to them. That’s why we’ve seen eight different tight ends total at least 44 yards against them, though six of them saw at least five targets in their matchup, something that Smith hasn’t sniffed this season, as his season-high is three targets. He’s creeping his way up into streaming consideration with his recent performances, but with safety Clayton Geathers getting back to full health, the Colts may not be a sure-fire streaming matchup for tight ends. If you’re desperate, Smith isn’t the worst of options.

Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: If you skipped over the intro to this article, I highly suggest going back up to the top where I cover the odds Ebron is going against with his current workload. With the current volatility at the tight end position, he’s still startable, but he’s far from a sure thing. Not only has Doyle out-snapped him the last two games, but so has Mo Alie-Cox. Here’s their snap counts with routes run in parenthesis: Doyle 105 (41), Alie-Cox 48 (7), Ebron 38 (22). So, not only is Doyle out-snapping him 3 to 1, he’s also run nearly double the pass routes. Opportunity is key with tight ends, and Doyle has been getting a lot more of it. The Titans will have an interesting test on their hands this weekend, as they’ve easily been the best in the NFL when it comes to limiting the tight end position, allowing just 1.21 PPR points per target (closest team is at 1.33), 5.78 yards per target (2nd-fewest), and are one of just two teams who’ve still yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. The only tight end who posted more than 21 yards against them, however, was Zach Ertz, who is obviously in nearly the same offense as they run in Indianapolis. He racked up 10 catches for 112 yards on 14 targets, so they aren’t unbeatable. It’s also worth noting that he’s the only top-20 tight end they’ve played against this year. Doyle should be in the middling to low-end TE1 conversation, while Ebron is a low-end TE1 in a matchup that might be better than the overall numbers show due to lack of competition.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 47.5
Line: PIT by 5.5

QBs
Ben Roethlisberger: Watching Roethlisberger play on Thursday night was special, maybe the best I’ve ever seen him play. He was on-point all over the field, which is a big development because he hadn’t played the best football this year, despite his stats looking fine. He now heads out to play a reeling Jaguars defense that’s started to fall apart over the last month. While I didn’t want to concede that a two-game sample size should be taken to heart, it’s clear they’re no longer the defense you must avoid like the plague. While they aren’t a plus-matchup for most quarterbacks, they’re trending in the wrong direction. Over the last four games, they’ve allowed just 223.3 passing yards per game, but they’ve allowed nine touchdowns on just 110 pass attempts (8.2 percent), which make the overall results look very bad. They’ve allowed more than 30 points just one time this season, so it’s also not a matchup you need to attack, either. Roethlisberger played the better version of this defense last year, though he was just as Jekyll and Hyde as they’ve been. In their first meeting, he threw 55 passes for 312 yards, no touchdowns, and five interceptions. In their second meeting (in the playoffs), he threw 58 passes for 469 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception in a game where the Jaguars posted 45 points on them. Both of those games were in Pittsburgh. This is a very difficult game to project considering the hit-or-miss play on both sides of the ball. Knowing Roethlisberger tends to perform at a much lower level on the road, you shouldn’t feel pressured to play him as anything more than a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.

Blake Bortles: As expected, Bortles had a solid game against the Colts in Week 10 where he played a game manager-type role and that’s the best version of him. The presence of Fournette should open things up a bit for the passing game against the Steelers, who Bortles hasn’t had to do much against the last two times they’ve played, as he totaled just 40 pass attempts in the two games combined. His run-game carried them in the playoffs, while it was the defense during the regular season. The Steelers have quietly become a defense to worry about on your schedule, as they’ve been extremely limiting to quarterbacks ever since they allowed Joe Flacco 363 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Since that time, they’ve held Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton (with A.J. Green), Baker Mayfield, Flacco, and Cam Newton below 18 fantasy points with none of them throwing for more than 285 yards or two touchdowns. The Jaguars aren’t likely to throw the ball a whole lot in this game, so the 5.68 yards per attempt they’ve allowed the last four games doesn’t add up to much. He’s nothing more than a middling QB2 for this game and not one you should aim for in your streaming endeavors.

RBs
James Conner: After suffering a concussion in Week 10, Conner is expected to play this week, as the 10 days in between games helps. Prior to suffering that concussion, he was on the sideline a bit more than usual, so you have to wonder if the Steelers are starting to preserve him in games they don’t need him, especially with no Le’Veon Bell. The Jaguars present a tough matchup for running backs, as they’ve yet to allow a running back finish with a performance better than the RB10. While they’ve yet to allow a running back score more than 20 PPR points, four of them have been able to top 15 PPR points, with each of them totaling at least 18 carries, a number that Conner had topped in four straight games prior to his concussion. While Conner has been used heavily in the passing-game, the Jags have been lights out there as well, allowing just 37 receptions for 309 yards through nine games to running backs, including holding Saquon Barkley to just two catches for 22 yards. Still, the Jaguars are in a bad place right now and have allowed each of the last four opponents average at least 4.0 yards per carry. Conner should be played as a low-end RB1 this week.

Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon: There was no holding back or limiting Fournette in his first game back, as he totaled a massive 29 touches against the Colts. While they couldn’t generate much on the ground, as their offensive line is in complete disarray, it was promising to see him used so extensively in the pass-game, as he totaled five targets. The Steelers are a team he demolished last year, as he totaled 184 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting, and then 119 yards and three touchdowns in their second meeting, which was the second week of the playoffs. The Steelers had been a dominant run-defense this year up until Christian McCaffrey tore them apart for 138 total yards and three touchdowns on Thursday night football. It was odd because the Steelers hadn’t allowed more than 84 total yards to any running back coming into that game. Running backs have only averaged 22.0 touches per game against the Steelers, which is part of the reason for their lack of performance, but efficiency has also been an issue, as they’ve allowed just 3.70 yards per carry and 4.75 yards per target to running backs. It’s a similar defense to the one he tore up last year, so you can’t overlook those performances, but you can’t overlook how well the Steelers have played outside of last week. Fournette should be played as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who’s gamescript-proof with his work in the pass-game. Yeldon still totaled eight touches with Fournette back, including six targets, so he’s clearly still involved in negative gamescripts. This game could trend that way, making Yeldon a high-end RB4, though it’s worrisome that running backs have averaged so few touches against them.

WRs
Antonio Brown: We’re entering Week 11 and there’s been just one week all season Brown hasn’t scored. He’s reached 100-plus yards just twice, but those games will come in better matchups. It’s not one of those better matchups this week, as Jalen Ramsey will be glued to his hip throughout the game. While the Jags defense has been slipping, Ramsey has played extremely well, allowing just 24-of-45 passing for 310 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The one touchdown came to DeAndre Hopkins, another top-tier receiver who’s heavily targeted. Brown isn’t seeing the insane volume he did the last time these two teams met, as he’s reached 10 targets just once in his last four games. The reason you play Brown regardless of matchup is due to what he did against Ramsey and the Jags last year. In the first meeting, he totaled 10 catches for 157 yards on a massive 19 targets. In the second meeting, he totaled seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns, so it’s clear that Brown is Ramsey-proof. Roethlisberger did throw the ball 113 times in those two games, so you shouldn’t expect those types of numbers, but he’s still a must-play WR1.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: It was good to see Smith-Schuster take advantage of his great matchup last week, though most of his production came on one play. The Jags have been without A.J. Bouye the last few games, which would obviously be a huge upgrade for Smith-Schuster, as he’d see Tyler Patmon when he lines up on the outside. Patmon is only playing the perimeter due to injuries, as he was covering the slot for much of the year. Between him and D.J. Hayden (who returned in Week 10), they’ve allowed a 76.7 percent catch rate in their coverage. It’s obviously a much more attractive matchup than Brown’s matchup with Ramsey. Now having at least 111 yards or a touchdown in 6-of-9 games, Smith-Schuster should be played as a high-end WR2.

Donte Moncrief: It’s odd the way he keeps doing it, but Moncrief has now totaled at least 54 yards in five of the last six games. 80 of his 98 yards against the Colts came on one play where he broke a tackle on the sideline and scored a long touchdown. He’s now seen 33 percent of the Jaguars air yards, which is obviously the highest on his team, but also ranks as the 13th-highest percentage in the NFL. The Steelers will have Joe Haden in coverage and he’s been phenomenal as of late, holding opposing No. 1 receivers in check. Here’s his opponents since Week 5 (when they started using him to shadow): Julio Jones 5/62/0, A.J. Green 7/85/0, Michael Crabtree 3/32/0, and Devin Funchess 3/32/0. They may not use him to shadow Moncrief, but that’s who he’ll see most of the game regardless, making Moncrief an unattractive WR4 option this week.

Dede Westbrook: With Keelan Cole becoming an afterthought in the Jaguars offense (played 22 snaps last week, behind D.J. Chark), Westbrook has now seen 16 targets over the last two games, though they’ve only netted seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. For a player who offers the big play potential he does, it’s odd to see him average 7.38 yards per target over the last two seasons. He’s playing the slot, which typically means a much lower average depth of target, but they haven’t used him to stretch the field at all. That’s an issue when you have a quarterback as inconsistent as Bortles because it means he needs to get it done over-and-over to perform well. The Steelers have Mike Hilton in the slot, who has been solid, though when they play zone, it has allowed some bigger games to slot receivers. As it’s been the entire season, Westbrook is a volatile WR4/5 option who might be the most likely Jaguars wide receiver to succeed, though it’s not a glaringly great matchup.

TEs
Vance McDonald: He may be boring, but McDonald is getting the job done for those who just plug and play him. He’s totaled at least 44 yards in five of the last seven games, which is a solid floor for tight ends in 2018. Since the start of Week 3, he’s the TE11 in fantasy. The Jaguars had been keeping tight ends in check for much of the year, though Eric Ebron‘s three-touchdown performance may have some wondering what to expect from them moving forward. Tight ends have still totaled just 36 receptions against them (just 4.0 per game) and 466 yards (51.8 per game), but the six touchdowns are alarming, as they’ve allowed a touchdown every 9.2 targets. Without the touchdowns, though, they’re not a defense to target with tight ends, as just two tight ends have topped 36 yards against them. Consider McDonald a high-end TE2 who’s still somewhat startable due to the lack of options available.

James O’Shaughnessy: He returned to the lineup in Week 10 and immediately saw six targets, putting him back on the potential streaming radar. In the last three games he’s played, he’s totaled 16 targets which have amounted to 11 catches for 102 yards, though he hasn’t scored. The Steelers may change that, though, as they’ve been extremely generous to the position this year, though they’ve seemed to turn a corner since their bye week. They allowed seven tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points against them in their first six games but have allowed 8.0 PPR points or less to each of the last three starters they’ve played. They consisted of David Njoku, Mark Andrews, and Greg Olsen, so it wasn’t weak competition. It’s possible that their young safety duo is catching on as the weeks go by, so it may not longer be a matchup to target, though O’Shaughnessy’s targets definitely make him appealing. He’s in the TE2 conversation this week.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

Total: 52.0
Line: CAR by 3.5

QBs
Cam Newton: After the Thursday night meltdown where Newton and the passing-game couldn’t get anything going against an improving Steelers defense, he’ll try and get back on track in a plus-matchup with the Lions in Week 11. They’re fresh off a game in which they allowed Mitch Trubisky (who is arguably Newton’s closest comp in the league) 355 yards and three touchdowns on just 30 attempts, with another 18 yards and touchdown on the ground. The Lions were without Darius Slay, but they’ve been a bad defense all year and have now allowed 8.89 yards per attempt, which ranks as second-worst to only the Raiders, who are at 8.90 yards per attempt. The Lions are also allowing a 7.54 percent touchdown rate, which is also second to only the Raiders, so when will we start to look at the Lions like a defense to target in fantasy matchups like we do the Raiders? If anything, the Lions may be an even better matchup because their offense can sometimes keep them in games. The crazy efficiency has kept quarterbacks from throwing against them too much, and the reason quarterbacks have averaged a league-low 28.0 attempts per game. The good thing is that Newton never needs to total a whole bunch of pass attempts to score fantasy points, as he’s reached 30 attempts in just four games this year. The bottom line here is that Newton should be started as a rock-solid QB1 without hesitation in this matchup.

Matthew Stafford: Do you think the loss of Tate has affected Stafford? He’s now taken 16 sacks over the last two games without him, which is shocking when you consider he took just 13 sacks over the first seven games combined. His accuracy was bad against the Bears, too, as he likely started to feel the pressure which would keep him on edge. The Panthers defense has generated 13 sacks over their last five games, though they weren’t able to get much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger last Thursday. The Panthers defense has actually been one to target in matchups this year, as they’ve allowed 23 total touchdowns (21 passing, 2 rushing) to them over the last eight games, which is tied with the Falcons for the most in the NFL during that stretch. Over their last two games, they’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger. While Stafford hasn’t been great, this matchup has provided a stable floor for a lot of quarterbacks. He’s also thrown at least two touchdowns in seven of his last eight games, so it’s not as if he’s useless or anything. The status of Marvin Jones will affect his outlook, though, so that’s something I’ll be updating on Saturday morning right here. As of now, consider Stafford a high-end QB2 this week, and one who might exceed expectations if he has a healthy wide receiver corps.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: I’ve been hard on McCaffrey this year, but he’s balled-out over the last three games, racking up 351 total yards and seven touchdowns. While the holes against the Steelers defense were massive, McCaffrey still needs to hit them, which he did, and it was something no running back had done against them all season (coming into that game, no running back had topped 84 total yards or one touchdown). Now he gets a matchup with the Lions run-defense, who have been better since acquiring Damon Harrison from the Giants, as they allowed 814 yards on 137 carries (5.94 yards per carry) over the first six games without him, while they’ve limited teams to 294 yards on 74 carries (3.97 yards per carry) with him. They’ve still allowed a rushing touchdown in four straight games, so it hasn’t all been pretty. There’s been just one running back who’s been able to top 32 receiving yards against the Lions this year, and that was Ezekiel Elliott back in Week 4, so it’s not a plus-matchup there. Oddly enough, they’ve yet to allow a running back more than four receptions, though there’s been just two games this year where McCaffrey has totaled less than five receptions. He’s clearly a must-play RB1 at this point, even if the Lions have been getting better against running backs.

Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, and LeGarrette Blount: It’s unlikely that we know much about Johnson’s injured ankle before the weekend, but he did seem to aggravate it late in the game against the Bears. He wasn’t able to find much room in that game but kept pounding and it let to two second-half touchdowns, including the first rushing touchdown of the season (by a running back) against the Bears. He’s now seen 19 targets over the last three games, which bodes well for his rest of season outlook without Golden Tate, as he’s being used in more of a three-down role, though he’ll lose some work to Blount in goal-line situations. The Panthers have been a much friendlier pass-defense than run-defense, as they’ve allowed just 713 rushing yards (9th-fewest) and four rushing touchdowns (8th-fewest), though a lot of that comes down to them facing just 163 carries on the year, or 18.1 per game. They’ve also held all but one running back (Saquon Barkley) to 25 receiving yards or less, so he’ll have to overcome tough odds once again this week. With Johnson totaling at least 12 carries in four of the last five games and his increased work in the passing-game, it’s hard not to play him as an RB2 in this game, especially when he just put in work against the Bears. Just know that the Panthers are a team that’s a bit more susceptible to wide receivers and tight ends. Riddick is playing a role that a slot receiver would, so he should be in line for six-plus targets in this game, especially if Marvin Jones can’t go, making him a decent-floor low-end RB3, especially in PPR formats. Update: Jones is out for the game, so Riddick should present a high-floor in both standard and PPR formats. 

WRs
Devin Funchess: After totaling at least 53 yards in five straight games from Week 2 through Week 7, Funchess has hit a wall in his production and has failed to record more than four catches or 44 yards in each of his last three games. He’s only seen 13 targets in those three games, and there’s only one common denominator between those games… D.J. Moore has played a much larger role in them. In those games, here’s the targets: Funchess 13, Moore 13, Samuel 11. This is clearly an offense that has many moving parts and not one of them is guaranteed production every week. The Lions always attempt to take away the No. 1 option on the opposing team, but struggle with teams like the Bears and Panthers, who don’t have one option they continually go to. They were without Darius Slay last week, which hurt, but even he has allowed four touchdowns on 36 targets in coverage this year. The 2.32 PPR points per target the Lions have allowed to wide receivers is the most in the NFL, though they’ve faced a league-low 132 targets to them. The efficiency should be there for Funchess this week, even if he sees limited targets. Trot him out there as a WR3 who is no sure thing, but he’s seen nine red zone targets while no other Panthers wide receiver has seen more than three. The Lions allow a touchdown every 10.2 targets to wide receivers, which is the absolute worst in the league.

D.J. Moore: He’s now tied with Funchess for targets over the last three weeks, but he’s also totaled four carries in that time, which leads to more opportunity for the wide receiver who ranks third among wide receivers in yards after the catch. The Panthers don’t have a clear-cut No. 1 receiver, though many would point to Funchess instead of Moore, so if Darius Slay plays and shadows anyone, it’d likely be Funchess. That would leave Moore up against Nevin Lawson, who has now been burned for a touchdown in three straight games. This is not really anything new for him, either, as he’s allowed a 104.0 QB Rating in his coverage over his entire five-year career. He’s not allowing many yards after the catch, but he’s really struggling at ball-tracking at the point of the catch. Knowing that they’ve allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 10.2 targets is somewhat ridiculous, and it puts Moore on the borderline WR3 conversation this week.

Curtis Samuel: Similar to players like Tyrell Williams and Paul Richardson, Samuel has had to deliver his fantasy numbers on extremely limited volume, as he’s still yet to see five targets in a game. With the ball in his hands he’s been dangerous, scoring on three of his last 14 touches. You have to wonder why they don’t involve him a bit more but knowing that the volume has been low for Newton (less than 30 attempts in 5-of-9 games), we have to understand that it’s really hard to give him more without taking some volume away from guys like Moore, Olsen, or McCaffrey. He has just two fewer targets than Funchess and Moore over the last three games, but that’s not saying much. Playing inside of a dome against a team who allows the most fantasy points per target to wide receivers, he’s a solid punt-play as a WR5, but he obviously comes with bust potential.

Marvin Jones: The report came out after Week 10 that Jones suffered a bone bruise on his knee, which is the best-case scenario, as some feared there was some structural damage. Will he play in this game? That’s a big question mark, so I’ll update the bottom of these notes come Saturday morning when we have a clearer picture. The Panthers would likely stick rookie Donte Jackson on him in coverage considering he’s got the wheels to hang with Jones down the field, as his average depth of target (15.2 yards downfield) is much higher than that of Golladay (11.9 yards). Jackson has been better than expected, though he’s still had some struggles, especially over the last two weeks against solid competition. He’s allowed 11-of-12 passing for 166 yards and two touchdowns to the combination of Bucs and Steelers wide receivers, so it’s not as if you need to avoid him in matchups, especially when you have someone as good as Jones in one-on-one coverage. There’s a lot questions surrounding his health, but if he practices and gets on the field, he should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 who has 25 targets over the last three games. Update: Jones has been ruled out for Week 11. 

Kenny Golladay: Knowing that Jones is dinged-up and may not even play, Golladay is going to see a lot of work this weekend. With Jones exiting the game against the Bears in the late-third, Golladay totaled a season-high 13 targets, which is much better than the seven targets he’d totaled in the previous three games. It didn’t matter all that much because Stafford was off his game against the Bears, but the targets are what’s important. The Panthers have been relatively average against wide receivers this year, as they’ve allowed just six top-24 performances to wide receivers, though targets haven’t even guaranteed fantasy production. Both Mike Evans and Willie Snead both saw 10 or more targets but failed to live up to a top-30 performer. In fact, of the eight top-30 performances they’ve allowed this year, four of them were to slot-heavy wide receivers. Even with Tate off the team, Golladay is running just 20 percent of his routes in the slot the last two weeks. We have to expect production with targets, but the Panthers haven’t been too generous to wide receivers this year, keeping him in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 territory, though he’d move into WR2 status if Jones had to miss the game. Update: Jones is out for the week, so Golladay should be in line for 10-plus targets. 

TEs
Greg Olsen: It had been a good stretch in the schedule for Olsen who totaled 132 yards and two touchdowns the previous two weeks heading into Pittsburgh, but the lack of competency in the Panthers offense in Week 10 bled into his production as he totaled just four catches for 40 yards. Not that that is the worst performance from a tight end, but it wasn’t as good as it could’ve been. Like almost every position, the Lions haven’t seen much volume against tight ends (quarterbacks average just 28.2 attempts per game against them), but on the volume they have seen, it’s been profitable. They’ve allowed a 73 percent completion rate, 9.2 yards per target, and a touchdown every 13.0 targets in coverage. Those are all bottom-eight numbers, but the Lions have allowed just the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position, because they’ve faced just 52 targets, the eighth-fewest in the league. With so many targets for Newton to choose, it’s difficult to say that Olsen is going to see more than 5-6 targets, but when he does get those targets, they should count, making him a middling TE1 play this week.

Michael Roberts: With Luke Willson out of the lineup last week with a shoulder injury, the Lions had Roberts and Levine Toilolo split the reps, though Roberts is the better pass-catcher to play if you’re looking for one against the Panthers, who have now allowed the most fantasy points to the tight end position. It’s not really all that close, either, as they’ve allowed 180.5 PPR points on the season, while no other team has allowed more than 156.8 points, which is a 2.5 point-per-game margin. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns to the position on just 80 targets (one every 8.9 targets), so when wondering which Lions tight end is the favorite in the red zone, it’s Roberts. Even with Willson active for all but one game, Roberts has five end zone targets while Willson and Toilolo have none. It’s such a good matchup that Roberts is on the TE2 radar, but knowing he’s failed to see more than four targets in any game, he’s far from a sure thing. However, once you get outside the top few tight ends, who is? Roberts is a dark horse to finish as a top-10 tight end this week if Willson sits again. Update: Roberts has been ruled out for Week 11.