Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

Total: 50.5
Line: ATL by 4.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: Since his defense went into the gutter due to injuries, Ryan has averaged 347.7 yards and 3.0 total touchdowns per game. He’s currently the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy football and has scored less than 19.2 fantasy points just once the last seven games. If he’s not in the MVP conversation, something is wrong. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns the last seven games. He threw 20 touchdowns in the entire 2017 season. The Browns defense has been somewhat middle of the pack this year, allowing the 17th-most fantasy points per game. Their strength had been getting to the quarterback, as they totaled 14 sacks over the first five games, but have netted just eight sacks over the last four games, as their defense is just getting worn down with opponents averaging a league-high 72.2 plays per game. Their efficiency numbers haven’t been bad, but they’ll definitely take a dip if they’re forced to play without Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines, who both left with injuries last week. That would leave them extremely thin at cornerback and left without anyone of significance to defend Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. The Browns have been allowing plenty on the ground as of late, which could take some of the upside away from Ryan, but knowing that the Falcons have averaged just 92.1 rushing yards per game (5th-fewest), he should offer a stable QB1 floor, especially if Ward and/or Gaines are out. With their bye next week, it’s likely they’re out.

Baker Mayfield: I’d say that the first game under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens went pretty well, as Mayfield completed 69 percent of his passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns. His interception wasn’t great, but he’s still learning the closing speed of defensive backs at the NFL level. He’s totaled at least 17.8 fantasy points in three of the last five games, so he’s worth streaming consideration in good matchups. The Falcons are just that. Since losing their top two defensive players in Week 1, they’ve allowed every quarterback to post at least 16.4 fantasy points, including Eli Manning and Alex Smith. In fact, Smith was the first one who failed to score at least 20 points against them, but he still scored enough to finish as the QB15 for the week. The Falcons have allowed a 300-yard passer in six of the last seven games, with the lone exception being Ben Roethlisberger who threw three touchdowns and didn’t need to throw a whole lot (finished with 29 attempts). The 304.2-yard per game average ranks as the fourth-most in the NFL, as does the 40.5 pass attempts per game against them. The Falcons have also allowed 171 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to quarterbacks, so yes, Mayfield should be on the low-end QB1 radar this week.

RBs
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: Did you know there’s been just two times this year where a Falcons running back has totaled more than 60 yards on the ground? When Coleman totaled 88 yards against the Redskins last week, it was the second-highest total of the year. The Browns have really been struggling against the run as of late, allowing 513 yards on 95 carries (5.40 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns on the ground over their last four games. Keep in mind that doesn’t even account for the 50-plus receiving yards they’ve allowed to Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, and James Conner the last two weeks. During this four-game stretch, they’ve allowed three running backs finish with 33-plus PPR points and finish as top-three running backs. It was good to see Coleman show some burst coming out of the bye, where he also totaled a season-high seven targets (previous high was four), turning them into 5/68/2. The Browns have allowed 7.9 yards per target to running backs, which is the third-most in the league, so there’s plenty of avenues for Coleman to live up to RB1 status this week. As for Smith, he’s been getting 9-13 touches per week, which puts him in the Austin Ekeler territory, though most of Smith’s touches are on the ground, as he hasn’t topped two targets since Week 4, making him an RB4 option this week.

Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: It was a clear division between the two running backs under Freddie Kitchens, as Chubb totaled 22 of the 23 carries, while Johnson saw nine of the 11 running back targets. That can definitely create some predictability, so those gaps should narrow, though Johnson clearly has a valuable role this week as the Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. This is not by chance, either, as they allowed a league-leading 108 receptions to running backs in 2017 and the second-most in 2016. It’s clearly a hole in their defense that can be exposed, as there have been four running backs who’ve totaled at least 50 yards through the air against them. Chubb might have some issues finding room on the ground, as the Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest yards on the ground and have allowed just over 4.0 yards per carry with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in the lineup, which he will be. The Falcons have faced the sixth-fewest carries by opponents this year, and that’s likely due to the ability to throw the ball against them, and the better avenue for success. Here’s the stat that bodes well for Chubb, though… There have been six running backs who’ve totaled at least 13 carries against the Falcons, and each of them totaled at least 18.2 PPR points. Just one issue – five of those running backs also had at least four receptions. Chubb should be considered a middling RB2 who could be hurt by gamescript. It was just one week of high volume in the passing game for Johnson, but with this matchup, he should be able to post at least RB3-type numbers.

WRs
Julio Jones: Thank goodness Julio scored last week, as I was really tired of hearing ungrateful fantasy owners rag on him. He actually should have had two touchdowns, but Josh Norman legitimately tackled him and took the pass interference penalty instead. He now has 933 yards, which is just 13 yards behind Adam Thielen for the league-lead, though Jones has played one less game than him. The Browns may be without Denzel Ward this week, who has been one of the lone bright spots in their secondary. They also lost E.J. Gaines in that game, so they could be left incredibly thin at cornerback in this game. You’d likely see former seventh-round pick T.J. Carrie in coverage most of the time, someone who has allowed nearly a 75 percent catch-rate in his coverage. There’s nothing to worry about with Jones this week, especially if Ward is out, which would give him an opportunity to explode.

Calvin Ridley: We saw the Redskins shift their strategy last week and have Josh Norman follow Julio Jones, which left Ridley with Quinton Dunbar. He turned in a rock-solid performance of 6/71/1 on nine targets, which was a new career-high. Not knowing who the Browns will have out there at cornerback makes it difficult to project to know who would cover Ridley, as it seems they’ll likely be without both Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines, who are their top two cornerbacks. Even with those guys active, the Browns have been susceptible to the deep ball and have allowed 32 pass plays of 20-plus yards. With Mohamed Sanu seemingly still dealing with his hip issue, we could see Ridley more involved than usual. The volume of passing in this game is a concern, as gamescript figures to put the Falcons out ahead rather early. Still, Ridley should be in line for five-plus targets in this game and that should be in lineups as an upside WR3.

Mohamed Sanu: He’s been dealing with a hip injury the last few weeks and his targets have suffered because of it. The bye week seems to have helped, but he’s still seen just nine targets over the last three weeks combined. Keep in mind that he saw 23 targets the previous three games. The Falcons aren’t likely going to throw the ball more than 30-35 times in this game, so it may make sense for the Falcons to give Sanu a lesser workload if possible. We also haven’t seen slot receivers do much against the Browns over the last month, as Keenan Allen posted 4/62/0, Willie Snead 5/55/0, and JuJu Smith-Schuster 4/33/0. Because of that, Sanu is just a weak WR4 option until he shows us that he’s healthy and ready to produce again.

Jarvis Landry: He continues to see a massive target share and is now over 100 targets on the season. The efficiency between him and Mayfield has been much better over the last three weeks, as he’s caught 24-of-34 targets (71 percent) for 186 yards and a touchdown. While the yardage may not be where you’d like, it’s good to see them connecting on a regular basis. The Falcons have Brian Poole back in the slot, and because of that, we saw Maurice Harris stockpile 10 catches for 124 yards against the last week. Before that, it was Sterling Shepard totaling 5/167/0 against them. Needless to say, this is a great matchup for Landry and he should be played as a high-end WR2 who offers an ultra-high floor.

Rashard Higgins: Knowing that Antonio Callaway is dealing with an ankle injury, we’re likely to continue seeing Higgins mixed-in as the No. 2/3 receiver in a plus-matchup against the Falcons. They’ve allowed 1.99 PPR points per target to opposing receivers, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. That’s a mixture of yards (8.96 yards per target) and touchdowns (one every 13.6 targets). He was coming off a multi-week injury last week, so it’s possible he was being eased in. With Mayfield under center, he’s caught 10-of-13 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown. He’s not someone you have to play, but he is a sneaky WR5 start for those with bye week issues.

Antonio Callaway: He played through his ankle injury last week, but he split time with Higgins, Breshad Perriman, and Damion Ratley in the game. The snap counts were Callaway 39, Higgins, 29, Perriman 26, and Ratley 20. In the game, Callaway saw five targets, but he dropped his sixth pass of the year. If he practices in full this week, he’d be the preferred play over Higgins because he’s line-up against Isaiah Oliver, a fellow rookie who’s playing for the injured Robert Alford (who has also been bad this year). On 15 targets in coverage, Oliver has allowed 10 catches for 108 yards and three touchdowns. Again, if he practices in-full by Friday, Callaway would make for an interesting WR4/5 sleeper play.

TEs
Austin Hooper: Outside of his two-week window in prime matchups, Hooper has been relatively quiet on the fantasy front. He’s totaled just seven targets over the last two weeks, but he hasn’t dipped below 41 yards since way back in Week 4, so he’s at least offering a decent floor. The Browns defense has a variety of injuries lately, as linebacker Christian Kirksey injured his hamstring last week, safety Damarious Randall injured his groin, and then cornerbacks Denzel Ward and E.J. Gaines left with injuries. They have their bye coming up in Week 11, so they could choose to play it safe with them, which would benefit Hooper. The Browns haven’t been that bad on a per-target basis to tight ends, but the injuries in the secondary last week led to Travis Kelce stomping them for 99 yards and two touchdowns on just nine targets. The Falcons can choose a lot of different avenues with their passing game this week and Hooper is one of them, so he’s on the high-end TE2 radar this week.

David Njoku: After a zero-target game in Week 8, the Browns got Njoku involved once again in Week 9 as he totaled 4/53/0 on five targets against the Chiefs. It’s a little worrisome that he didn’t get more, but there aren’t many tight ends who’ve seen a consistent five-plus targets per game, so we have to take where we can, right? The Falcons have allowed a rather-high 70 percent completion rate to tight ends, but they’ve allowed just three touchdowns on 60 targets to them. You’d think they’d struggle a bit more without their top two safeties and inside linebacker, but they’ve still yet to allow a tight end score more than 16 PPR points. They are coming off a game in which Vernon Davis and Jordan Reed combined for 9/96/0, but they were also targeted 13 times. Njoku still has 52-plus yards in five of his last six games and gamescript should be on his side in this game, so you should trot him out there as a somewhat reliable TE1.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Total: 50.5
Line: LAC by 10.0

QBs
Philip Rivers: We knew traveling into Seattle wasn’t going to be an easy task, so to see Rivers walk out of there with 228 yards and two touchdowns isn’t that bad. He completed a season-low 50 percent of passes, but that should change quite a bit this week. The Raiders are a team he demolished back in Week 5 where he threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns despite throwing the ball just 27 times. Oddly enough, Rivers hasn’t thrown the ball more than 30 times in six of their last seven games which is really hurting his fantasy ceiling. It’s why he hasn’t scored more than 21.7 points since way back in Week 1 when he threw the ball 51 times. The Raiders are allowing a league-worst 8.94 yards per attempt to quarterbacks, including a 262-yard, three-touchdown performance to first-time starter Nick Mullens last week. They’ve simply moved on to next year and have even made Rashaan Melvin, who may be their best cornerback, inactive the last few weeks. Their defense has allowed at least 26 points in all but one game, which was against Denver way back in Week 2. Rivers is an ultra-high-floor low-end QB1 who might not throw the ball more than 25 times.

Derek Carr: Where do we go from here with Carr? He’s now completed at least 73 percent of his passes in each of his last four games, but has also finished with less than 14 fantasy points in three of them. The options he’s throwing to are less-than-ideal, and the Chargers defense has played much better over the last month. They haven’t allowed more than 238 passing yards in each of their last three games, and you’d have to go back to Week 3 to find the last time they allowed a 300-yard passer. With Casey Hayward playing much better and them starting to generate a pass-rush (14 sacks in last four games), it’s hard to find production for Carr. They played back in Week 5 when he had Amari Cooper and totaled just 268 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Chargers likely play keep-away for much of this game, making Carr a low-end QB2.

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: It was odd to see, but Gordon played a season-high 88 percent of the snaps in Week 9, so his hamstring is apparently doing perfectly fine. He gets a rematch against the Raiders this week, who he tagged for 120 total yards and a touchdown back in Week 5. That was arguably the best the Raiders defense had played all year, as it was one of just two games this season where they’ve allowed less than 4.24 yards per carry to their opponent. Since that time, they’ve allowed 491 yards on 94 carries (5.22 yards per carry) with three touchdowns to the Seahawks, Colts, and 49ers, three teams who have struggled to run the ball this year. Running backs have seen a league-high 50 red zone touches against the Raiders and Gordon has scored on nine of his 23 red zone touches, so it’d be wise to expect a multiple touchdown game from Gordon who is clearly an elite RB1 play. As for Ekeler, he’s back to his backup role, though it’s a bit concerning he saw just four touches last week. The Chargers should be able to win this game pretty handily, so he could approach his usual 10-touch mark, putting him on the low-end RB3 radar in this game.

Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: In the two games since Marshawn Lynch‘s injury, here’s the touch total among the running backs: Martin 27 (3 receptions), Richard 16 (12 receptions), DeAndre Washington 6. They all have their own separate roles, but Martin is the one who’s clearly getting about 70 percent of the carries, while Richard is getting 75 percent of the passing-down work. The Raiders couldn’t do anything on the ground against the Chargers in Week 5 as they totaled just 36 scoreless yards on 12 carries. Outside of that game, the Chargers haven’t been a dominant run-defense, allowing 4.54 yards per carry, though they have allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the season. Considering expected gamescript, it’s hard to see Martin getting more than 10-12 carries in this game with limited scoring opportunities, making him a middling RB3 while Richard may be a bit more appealing. The Chargers have allowed 7.98 yards per target to running backs, which ranks as the second-most to only the Bucs defense. It’s why we saw him rack up six catches for 53 yards in the first meeting against them. Not much has changed with Richard’s role since that time, so feel free to trot him out there as a high-floor RB3 who’s got limited upside.

WRs
Keenan Allen: We’ve gotten one step closer to the Allen explosion, as he totaled a season-high 124 yards against the Seahawks in Week 9. This was the time he lit the fantasy world on fire last year, as he totaled 797 yards and five touchdowns over the final seven games of the season. The Raiders allowed Allen 8/90/0 in their first meeting on nine targets, which featured a better secondary than the one they’re fielding now, as they’ve stuck Rashaan Melvin on the bench. As of now, he’s going to see Leon Hall most of the time, a 33-year-old veteran who has allowed a 118.8 QB Rating in his coverage this season, which includes a massive 88 percent catch-rate and 15.5 yards per reception. The 13.5 yards per target is among the worst in football, though he’s still yet to allow a touchdown. Allen is a plug-and-play WR1 this week and one who’s going to blow-up at any moment.

Tyrell Williams: Another week that goes by, and another week that Williams fails to top five targets. The matchup against the Seahawks was a tough one, though he and Mike Williams both found the end zone. The Raiders will have Daryl Worley on him most of the game, who hasn’t been anything to write home about since his four-game suspension at the beginning of the year. He’s fit right in with the defense, allowing a 70 percent catch-rate and 13.6 yards per target, with a touchdown every 10 targets. The Raiders secondary as a whole has allowed 35 plays of 20-plus yards (3rd-most) and nine plays of 40-plus yards (2nd-most), so we could see Williams get free for a deep one here. Worley is a 4.6-second speed guy, so consider Williams an upside WR4 for this game.

Mike Williams: After a blazing-hot start to the season, Williams has trailed off the last month and a half, totaling just one catch in four of the last five games. He has found the end zone in each of the last two games, and his touchdown last week was incredible as he displayed amazing body control down the sideline. The issue is that Rivers is throwing the ball just 30 times or less in six of the last seven games, not leaving much room for Williams’ miniscule target share. He remains a bench stash in season-long leagues in case of injury, but he’s not a recommended start against the Raiders because he’s going to see Gareon Conley more than any other Chargers wide receiver, and he’s easily their top cornerback. Through eight games, Conley has allowed just a 48.3 percent catch-rate and one touchdown in his coverage. That doesn’t look great when Williams is seeing just 3-4 targets per game. He’s a touchdown-dependent WR5 in fantasy leagues right now.

Jordy Nelson: Remember when everyone thought Amari Cooper being traded was a good thing for Nelson? Counting the game Cooper was knocked out in the first-quarter, Nelson has totaled 10 targets, 5 receptions, 36 yards, and no touchdowns in the three games without Cooper. Those numbers are on THREE GAMES COMBINED. And now, he’s going to see a lot of Casey Hayward this week, so you shouldn’t need me to tell you that he’s not an option in fantasy leagues.

Brandon LaFell: He’s “technically” their No. 1 receiver right now, though what does that even mean? He’s seen seven targets over two games in the absence of Amari Cooper, netting six receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers aren’t going to do any shadowing in this game, so he’ll see a mix of Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams. If there’s been one weak point in the Chargers secondary, it’s been Williams who has allowed three touchdowns on 29 targets in coverage, and 15.0 yards per reception. LaFell can’t beat anyone down the field at this stage in his career (not that he was ever that player), so he’s going to have to beat Williams consistently to amount to much. After allowing seven touchdowns in the first three games, the Chargers have really turned their secondary around and have allowed just two wide receiver touchdowns in their last five games. LaFell is nothing more than a weak WR5 in this game.

Seth Roberts/Martavis Bryant: It seems that neither of these two are going to be playing anything close to a full-time role, as Roberts ran 22 routes and Bryant ran 13 routes against the 49ers last week. The Chargers have Desmond King manning the slot, who has been phenomenal as of late, intercepting three passes in the last three games. He did allow the lone touchdown thrown by the Raiders in their Week 5 meeting, though it was on a play where the defense simply wasn’t ready. Roberts isn’t a great play, while Bryant at least offers you some homerun upside. Still, he’s been targeted just twice in the last two games, making him an afterthought in season-long leagues, though it shouldn’t shock you to see him score a long touchdown with the way this game’s slated to go. If you’re looking for a player on waivers who can live up to WR3 status with one play, it’s him.

TEs
Antonio Gates: It really stinks when you have a prime tight end matchup to exploit, but the tight end in that matchup has been terrible. Gates has now totaled less than 20 yards in each of his last four games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, which was his only one this season. He’s the type of tight end you don’t want to play because even if he scores a touchdown, you’re looking at 1-2 catches for 10-20 yards and a touchdown. It’s not worth the risk, even though the Raiders have allowed an astronomical 12.14 yard per target to tight ends, including a touchdown every 7.0 targets. Yes, it’s that good of a matchup. No, Gates didn’t even do anything the first time they played, finishing with two catches for 19 yards. This is the best matchup he’ll get for the rest of the year, so if you’re looking for one chance to play him, here you go. He’s still nothing more than a mediocre TE2.

Jared Cook: After his hot start, it appears that Cook has come back down to reality. He’s now totaled 31 yards or less in four of his last six games. He’s also seen just nine targets in his last three games combined, which were without Amari Cooper on the field. On top of that, the Chargers are not a team who’s one to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just 6.05 yards per target, which ranks as the third-lowest number in the league. There have been three tight ends who have posted top-12 numbers against them, but there were George Kittle who had eight targets, David Njoku who had 12 targets, and Nick Vannett who had eight targets. Cook hasn’t seen more than six targets since Week 4. In the first meeting with the Chargers, they held him to just four catches and 20 yards on six targets. He’s just a high-end TE2 and not one you should feel pressured to play.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 51.0
Line: LAR by 10.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: It was good to see a few different things with Wilson last week, despite the Seahawks losing to the Chargers. One, he threw the ball 39 times. Volume is huge. Two, he totaled a season-high 41 rushing yards. He also should’ve thrown three touchdowns for a fourth straight game, but David Moore let the ball bounce off his chest on the final play of the game. The Rams were one of the teams who allowed three touchdowns to Wilson, though he totaled less than 200 yards through the air. Under Sean McVay and the new Rams coaching staff, Wilson has played three games against them, and has totaled less than 200 passing yards in every game. In two games against them last year, he totaled just 198/1/1 in the first meeting and then just 142/1/0 in the second meeting. This isn’t what you’d call great. The Rams defense has been struggling more than most expected, but divisional games seem to do something to Wilson. Over the last two years, he’s played eight divisional games and here are his totals (most recent first): 198/3/0, 172/0/0, 221/2/0, 142/1/0, 228/2/1, 238/2/0, 198/1/1, 198/1/0. As you can see, it hasn’t been great. He’s been playing great as of late, but he was towards the end of 2017 during some of those games as well. I’d consider him a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week and not one who should be locked into lineups.

Jared Goff: Coming off a game where he threw for 391 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints, Goff and the Rams will return home to play a divisional game against the Seahawks. The last time they played, it was a bloodbath where both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were knocked out of the game, and though Goff managed to throw for 321 yards in that game, he threw just one touchdown and two interceptions. It was his second-worst game of the year from a fantasy perspective, and it’s not much different from the games against the Seahawks last year. He threw for 288/0/2 in their first meeting and then 120/2/1 in their second meeting, so it’s clear that Pete Carroll’s defense has done well at containing their offense. Despite all the loses they’ve had on defense, the Seahawks have allowed just nine passing touchdowns over the last seven games. They’ve also racked-up 10 interceptions this year, so they’ve played solid on that side of the ball. The Rams should be able to run the ball a bit easier, so they could lean on Gurley a bit more this week to mask their defensive issues. Goff is more of a low-end QB1 this week who may not present the ceiling that most think. The Seahawks have yet to allow a top-12 quarterback performance this season.

RBs
Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny: As of the time I’m putting this together, we have no idea what the timeline is for Chris Carson, but it seems all but certain that he’s going to miss this game. The last time Carson had to miss a game, the Seahawks gave Davis 25 touches against the Cardinals while Penny saw nine touches. Even in relief of Carson last week, Davis totaled 22 touches compared to just seven touches for Penny. So, it’s nearly been a 3 to 1 touch difference between the two with Carson out. The Rams haven’t been a shutdown run defense, but they’ve only faced 22.3 carries per game, which is due to gamescript being in their favor, as well as time of possession. While at home, the Rams average 54.3 percent of the time of possession, which is the fifth-highest percentage in the league. Prior to Alvin Kamara tearing them up for three touchdowns, no other running back had finished top-12 against the Rams this year. While in Seattle, the combination of Carson and Davis did well, though, as they totaled 184 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. Davis himself totaled 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, but the Seahawks would need to keep the game close in order for that to happen again. Knowing his potential for touches in a 70/30 split, Davis should be played as a low-end RB2 while Penny is in the high-end RB4 mix.

Todd Gurley: It’s been a ‘down’ two weeks for Gurley, as he’s scored just two touchdowns. That feels odd to say, but that’s the level he’s played at this year. He’s now scored 16 total touchdowns this year with three of them coming against the Seahawks in Week 5. Over his last two games against the Seahawks, he’s totaled 293 yards and seven total touchdowns. Keep in mind that there’s not many running backs who score seven touchdowns in a complete season. The Seahawks have allowed six different running backs total at least 71 yards on the ground against them, including Melvin Gordon‘s 113 against them in Seattle last week. Coming off a game where he totaled just 13 carries, Gurley should be fresh and ready for a big workload. Knowing how well he’s done against them the last few times they’ve played, it’s hard to avoid him in DFS as well. You already know you’re playing him as an RB1 in season-long leagues.

WRs
Doug Baldwin: We know that Wilson has struggled in his matchups with the Rams, but what about Baldwin? He totaled just one catch for one yard in their first meeting, which isn’t much different than their previous two meetings where he totaled 1/6/0 and 4/37/0. Let’s be blunt about it… that’s terrible. The Rams have gone back to Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, who has been their top cornerback (outside of Aqib Talib) on their team while allowing just a 64 percent catch-rate and 8.5 yards per reception. For a slot cornerback, those are phenomenal numbers. Knowing that Baldwin hasn’t been a top-performer this year, it’s going to be hard to trust him in this game. He should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 who is not guaranteed much of anything.

Tyler Lockett: It’s now been three straight weeks where Lockett hasn’t topped 35 yards, which was bound to happen when he hasn’t seen more than five targets since back in Week 4. His touchdowns had been carrying his fantasy numbers, including the one against the Rams the last time they played where he legitimately ran right past Marcus Peters, who appeared to be standing still on the play. It was Lockett’s biggest game of the year, and he’ll see a lot of Peters again this week. Peters just got railed by Michael Thomas, who is quite a different receiver than Lockett. The only thing that’s worrisome is Wilson’s struggles against the Rams, as he’s failed to throw for more than 198 yards in each of his last three games against them. It all points to Lockett being somewhat touchdown-dependent, but he may be most likely to get one this week.

David Moore: After his honeymoon where he caught 11-of-13 targets for 221 yards and four touchdowns over the previous four weeks, Moore had a brutal game against the Chargers in Week 9. He caught just 2-of-7 targets for 16 yards, appeared to run the wrong route one time and then dropped the game-tying touchdown on the final play of the game. The question is whether or not he lost some of Wilson’s trust in that game where he saw a season-high seven targets. Moore’s matchup with Troy Hill this week isn’t a bad one, though, as Hill has allowed a touchdown every 12.1 targets in his coverage over the course of his career, including one in three of the last four games. We don’t have a massive sample size on either player, but the matchup does favor Moore. If he can regain the trust of Wilson and Wilson can put together a good performance against the Rams, Moore could be a beneficiary, making him a boom-or-bust low-end WR4.

Brandin Cooks: There’s been just one game all season where Cooks has posted less than 53 yards and it was the game against the Seahawks in Week 5 when he suffered a concussion in the second quarter. He hadn’t seen a target until the one where he was knocked out of the game on, so it’s difficult to know if that was the gameplan or it was the Seahawks preventing targets from going his way. Cooks has maxed out at nine targets with the Rams, though that’s been plenty for production, as he’s topped 110 yards on three different occasions. He’ll see Tre Flowers in coverage, who is a fifth-round rookie pick that’s had to step in and play right away. He’s done well, too, allowing just a 59.5 percent catch-rate and 13.3 yards per reception. He’s a 4.4-second speed guy, so he’s not likely to get beat deep too often, and he’s part of the reason the Seahawks have allowed just five pass plays of 40-plus yards. He did allow two touchdowns to both Mike and Tyrell Williams last week, so he’s not untouchable, though Mike’s touchdown was quite ridiculous. Cooks needs to be played as a WR2 who’s yet to give you a reason not to.

Robert Woods: He’s quietly been potentially the most consistent wide receiver in fantasy football over the last eight weeks, as he’s totaled at least five catches for 70 yards in every game, including three with 100-plus yards. With Kupp back in the lineup, he returned to his typical station at RWR, which is where he’ll find Shaquill Griffin in coverage. He’s arguably the top cornerback on the roster and has done well here in his second year, though he hasn’t been tested much in coverage this year. There’s been just three games where he’s had to face more than four targets, and in those games, he allowed 18-of-26 passing for 205 yards and a touchdown. Woods was one of them when he posted 92 yards on seven targets, while rushing for another 53 yards in that game. Knowing how consistent he’s been, you don’t fear the matchup, you just play him as a WR2 and forget about it.

Cooper Kupp: It didn’t take long for Kupp to get back into the gameplan, as he racked up 89 yards and a touchdown against the Saints last week, though it was a great matchup. The Seahawks were allowing him to have a massive game against them in Week 5 before he had to leave roughly halfway into the game with a concussion. Even though he played just 36-of-66 snaps in that game, he totaled six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Clearly, McVay saw something on the tape that suggested Kupp should be heavily targeted, and the Chargers may have thought the same thing with Keenan Allen last week, as he totaled six catches for 124 yards on 10 targets. Outside the game against the Broncos where he hurt his knee, Kupp has totaled at least six targets and 52-plus yards in every game, making him just as reliable as Cooks or Woods, so continue putting him into your lineup as a WR2 unless he gives you a reason not to.

TEs
Nick Vannett: So, let’s get this straight… Vannett waited until Ed Dickson came back to break-out? He saw a season-high eight targets against the Chargers and totaled 6/52/1 in a tough matchup. He ran 25 routes in that game compared to 15 routes for Dickson, so he appears to be the top receiving option. The Rams have been inconsistent against tight ends this year, allowing performances like 9/180/0 to Jared Cook and 5/98/1 to George Kittle, but then holding other tight ends who’ve seen 5-plus targets against them to sub-25-yard games. If there has been one trend among those who produced against them, it’s that they’re focal points of the offense, which Vannett is clearly not. It’s good to see him produce last week, but knowing that Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 198 yards against the Rams since the Jeff Fisher days and that Vannett totaled just three catches for 43 yards against them in their last meeting, he’s not a preferred streaming option.

Gerald Everett: We could be seeing a shift in usage for Everett, the tight end the Rams took in the second-round of last year’s draft. After he saw just five targets over the first four games, he’s starting to get more involved, as he’s seen 16 targets over the last five games. While it may have helped that Kupp missed some time in between there, he returned in Week 9 and Everett totaled a season-high five targets in a bad matchup with the Saints. He’s still yet to run more than 18 routes in a game, so he’s far from starting comfortably, but his usage is trending in the right direction. The Seahawks may be without starting safety Bradley McDougald this week, who suffered a knee injury in Week 9. He’s been the one trusted to keep tight ends in check and he’s done a great job, as the Seahawks have allowed just 284 yards and one touchdown to tight ends, which are both bottom-three numbers in the league. If McDougald was to miss the game, he’d get an upgrade for sure, but his snaps/routes need to come up before trusting him, but you now know that things are trending in the right direction.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Total: 47.5
Line: GB by 9.5

QBs
Brock Osweiler: After throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears in his starting debut with the Dolphins, Osweiler has trended in the wrong direction, as he’s failed to throw for more than 241 yards in each of the last three games and hasn’t thrown a touchdown the last two weeks. Now he’ll head out to Green Bay to play a team with its back against the wall, but also one who has generated 17 sacks over their last five games. After the Dolphins offensive line didn’t allow him to be sacked against the Bears, they’ve now allowed him to be sacked 10 times the last three games. Osweiler is going to be under duress in this game and he doesn’t have many safety valves to throw the ball to. Stills came back last week, but he’s just a deep threat in this offense. Amendola will match-up with veteran Tramon Williams, and Parker will see a mixture of Jaire Alexander and Kevin King (might not play). Quarterbacks have only been able to complete 61.6 percent of passes against the Packers, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. He offers nothing on the ground to compensate and is projected to score just 19 points this week. The Packers have allowed two quarterbacks to finish with top-15 performances against them (Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins), so he’s not a preferred streaming option.

Aaron Rodgers: Is it just me, or is Rodgers having an off year? It’s odd to say that when the guy has thrown 15 touchdowns to just one interception, but we’re now through half of the season and he’s on pace for “just” 30 passing touchdowns. He’s on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards for the first time in his career, but it just doesn’t feel right. This is coming from someone who views him as the greatest to ever play, so expectations are high. The Dolphins defense started the season out playing well, allowing just two passing scores over the first three games. It doesn’t look as good when you hear they were against Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert, Sam Darnold, and Derek Carr, right? Since then, they’ve allowed a combined 13 touchdowns to Tom Brady, Mitch Trubisky, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson. The Packers are in a must-win situation and will be playing against a team that had their Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones pull himself out of the game (not for an injury), so they’re forced to play rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick in his place. Prior to holding Darnold and the Jets offense in check, they’d allowed 56-of-73 passing (76.7 percent completion rate) for 772 yards (10.6 yards per attempt) and 10 touchdowns (13.7 percent touchdown percentage) in their last three games. The Packers need a confidence-building game and this matchup seems to be just that. Rodgers is a high-end QB1 whose upside could be limited by gamescript but is one of the safest plays on the board.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: Here we go again… After watching Drake tear-up opposing defenses the previous four weeks, Adam Gase decided that he should touch the ball just seven times against a Jets team that had been struggling against the run. It was the third time this year he’s seen seven or less touches, making him a frustrating fantasy option. We seemed to be on the right track, but this is us vowing not to be sucked back into Gase’s madness. A week after Gore totaled 20 carries, he may need a lighter week, while the gamescript supports Drake’s role more this week, as he’s seen 47 targets to Gore’s nine targets. The Packers have allowed just over 4.5 yards per carry on the season, so they can be run on, but it’s unlikely there are many carries to go around. In games that the Packers have won or tied, their opponents have averaged just 18.0 carries per game, and they’re essentially 10-point favorites here. The Packers have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs, but that’s because they’ve only faced 48 targets, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. When targeted, running backs are averaging a respectable 6.9 yards per target and 1.56 PPR points per target. Gore will be lucky to total more than 12 carries in this game and he’s still yet to score a rushing touchdown, so he’s just a low-upside RB4 this week. As for Drake, you kind of have to play him as a low-end RB2 knowing the gamescript. Three of his four biggest games this year have come in games the Dolphins lost.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: After the Packers finally allowed Jones to take over the starting job, do they lose some confidence after he lost a fumble on their potentially go-ahead drive against the Patriots last week? While it may seem like a bit much, we saw Ty Montgomery shipped off to the Ravens after his fumble the week before. With the way Jones has looked running the ball, it’s unlikely, though it’s probably going to be a bit more of a timeshare against the Dolphins. That may not matter, as they’ve been gutted by opposing run-games the last six weeks. In that time, they’ve allowed 824 yards on 162 carries (5.09 yards per carry) with five touchdowns. That amounts to 27.0 carries per game, which is more than enough for Jones/Williams to do some damage. Fun fact: Isaiah Crowell‘s “performance” last week was the first time the Dolphins hadn’t allowed at least one running back to score 17-plus PPR points against them. There’s been four teams of running backs who’ve combined for 32-plus PPR points against them, so feel free to start Jones as a high-end RB2, while Williams is even on the low-end RB3 radar in this game.

WRs
DeVante Parker: It cracks me up to see everyone overreact to one bad game even more than they overreact to one good game. Why? Well, outside the top-24 receivers, every single one of them has shown a vulnerable floor, though not many have shown a 134-yard ceiling. Wide receivers cannot produce without targets, so knowing that Parker saw two targets against the Jets, it shouldn’t shock you he didn’t do much. Against the Packers, though, he should get more than a few targets. In the four games the Packers have won or tied, their opponents averaged 34.8 pass attempts, which is closer to the range Osweiler threw against the Texans (37) than what he threw against the Jets (24). The Packers have allowed a rather high 1.93 PPR points per target, but a large part of that comes down to touchdowns, as they’ve allowed 13 of them on just 155 targets. That’s one every 11.9 targets, which is the third-worst mark in the NFL. They’ve recently shifted Jaire Alexander to the perimeter and he’s been solid, though they likely wouldn’t use him in a shadow situation with Parker. Consider Parker a high-end WR4 this week who comes with some target upside.

Kenny Stills: He returned to the lineup last week, though he saw just one target. Through three games with Osweiler, he’s totaled just six targets which doesn’t bode well for projected production. There’re some reasons to like him this week, though. Not only did the Packers trade away Haha Clinton-Dix at the trade deadline, but another safety, Kentrell Brice, injured his knee against the Patriots and is highly questionable for this game. That would leave Tramon Williams to play safety, as he did against the Patriots, which is far from ideal. He’s gone from perimeter corner, to the slot, and now to safety. At cornerback, Stills would see a mix of rookie Jaire Alexander and Bashaud Breeland in coverage if Kevin King can’t go with his hamstring injury. Breeland is extremely slow, so that would leave an opening for Stills to get behind the defense. He comes with massive risk due to the low target volume, but there should be opportunity down the field for Stills, who is second in the NFL with a 19.2-yard average depth of target.

Danny Amendola: He continues to be a favorite of Osweiler, as he’s seen 31 targets over his four starts, which is a 22.8 percent target share. That’s a bigger target share than Tyreek Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cooper Kupp on the season. While he’s not even close to that conversation, it goes to show Osweiler’s willingness to target him. If the Packers are forced to move Tramon Williams back to safety with Kentrell Brice likely out, we don’t know who they’ll toss in the slot, though it’s likely to be Josh Jackson, who isn’t the best build to cover a wide receiver like Amendola. He’s a bigger cornerback (6-foot, 200 pounds), while Amendola is shifty is small spaces. When asked to play this year, Jackson has allowed 20-of-30 passing for 282 yards, which led to him getting benched for Jaire Alexander. Whatever the case, Amendola’s matchup isn’t terrible and he’s now posted at least five catches and 43 yards in each of the last four games. He should be on the WR4/5 radar in standard formats, while he’s a high-floor WR4 in PPR formats.

Davante Adams: When Aaron Rodgers comes out and says they need to “feed” Adams, you know what’s bound to happen. The Dolphins have trusted Xavien Howard on opposing No. 1 receivers, and although he’s a solid young cornerback, he’s likely not equipped to handle the Adams/Rodgers connection. Howard has been dealing with an ankle issue that’s kept him limited in practice, and we can’t forget that he allowed DeAndre Hopkins to post 6/82/2 a couple weeks ago on Thursday night football. While he wasn’t the only one to blame for that production, the Packers are going to find ways to get Adams out of his coverage as well. Adams has yet to score less than 16 PPR points in a game this season and in the games he’s seen double-digit targets, he’s averaged 25.2 PPR points. Play him as a WR1 despite the matchup with Howard and expect to see a good amount of fantasy points in your lineup.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Now that we know Geronimo Allison is out for the remainder of the season, Valdes-Scantling essentially becomes a must-play WR2/3 every week. If you took each player’s production ONLY from the games they started (Allison first four games, Valdes-Scantling last four games morphed into one player), Allison and Valdes-Scantling would combine for 56 targets, 34 receptions, 606 yards, and four touchdowns. The closest comparison in the NFL would be Tyler Boyd who’s totaled 620 yards and five touchdowns. He’s an every-week start, right? The Dolphins are moving players around on defense an would have a mixture of Bobby McCain and Torry McTyer on him, which is obviously a better matchup than Adams with Howard, though Adams is still going to win that one. McTyer has been terrible in coverage, allowing 15-of-18 passing for 269 yards and a touchdown, and that’s who Valdes-Scantling will see most of the time. We’ve seen Valdez-Scantling start to earn Rodgers’ trust over the last few weeks, as he now has at least 100 yards or a touchdown in each of the last four games. He should be played as an upside WR3 in this game.

Randall Cobb: He’s now been outplayed by three different Packers receivers this year, and I’ll keep going back to this stat because it highlights just how unproductive Cobb has been. Outside of the 75-yard touchdown against the Bears where the safety tried jumping a route (and missed), Cobb has totaled just 25 receptions for 183 scoreless yards the remainder of the season. He’s gaining just 2.9 yards of separation, while Valdes-Scantling has averaged 3.5 yards this year, so whether it’s age, injuries, or just falling out of favor, Cobb isn’t a very good fantasy option. The Dolphins have moved Minkah Fitzpatrick back to safety after Reshad Jones pulled himself from the game, which is an upgrade for Cobb, as Fitzpatrick was playing at a top-three cornerback there, though Bobby McCain shifts there now in three wide receiver sets. McCain isn’t someone who’s played above his fifth-round draft price, as he’s allowed a 95.6 QB Rating in his coverage in his four-year career. Cobb could always pop back up on the fantasy radar with a big game considering who his quarterback is, but you shouldn’t bank on it with the way he’s played this year. He’s just a WR5-type option.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: It’s been a rookie season to forget for Gesicki, who has gone up-and-down in targets all season, ranging from one target last week, to five targets the prior game. Similar to everyone else in the Dolphins offense, he’s maddening, but the one good thing is that he hasn’t even come close to dragging us in because he’s yet to top 44 yards or score a touchdown. The Packers are one of just two teams who’s still yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, though the injuries in the back half of their defense could expose the fact that they’ve allowed 8.23 yards per target to the position, which is the 13th-most. Still, with the way Gesicki has been used, he cannot be trusted outside of a random tournament-play.

Jimmy Graham: He scored his second touchdown of the season last week in a good matchup against the Patriots, but Graham’s 10 targets over the last two weeks are the lowest he’s had in any two-game stretch this season. It’s still enough for production, but it’s also something we’ll pay attention to moving forward. The Dolphins have yet to allow a tight end more than 62 yards against them this year, but they have allowed five tight end touchdowns in their last four games. As a gauge, there’re just six other teams who have allowed that many all season. Part of the reason is because tight ends have seen a league-high 16 targets in the red zone against them. That may be why the Dolphins have decided to move Minkah Fitzpatrick back to safety, though it didn’t stop them from allowing Chris Herndon four catches for 62 yards last week. Graham is definitely in the TE1 conversation in a game the Packers are projected for 28.5 points.