There are eight games on the FanDuel main slate tonight and four of them have projected totals over 220. The New York-New Orleans game is the highest with a 228 o/u but the Pelicans are favored by 10 points. Portland-Minnesota looks to be the most competitive high-scoring game tonight with a 223 game total and the Trailblazers only being a 1.5 favorite. The Miami-Indiana has the lowest total at 213. No team is playing a back-to-back, which is unusual, so we will not have to worry about that and should get more information from the teams earlier in the day.
Eight players are priced at $9,000 or higher with Anthony Davis leading the way at $12,800. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a distant second with an $11,500 salary. Joel Embiid ($10,900), Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600), and John Wall ($10,200) round out the 5-figure players for tonight.
There are a lot of ways to construct lineups. The example lineup that I give you today targets the game that I like the most (Minnesota-Portland) combined with a few of my favorite individual plays. This is merely an example of how you could construct a lineup and the thought process that goes into it. In no way, should you blindly enter this lineup in a contest, nor plug and play these players automatically without examining all the information available to you. Remember that you roster nine players on FanDuel but only count your best eight scores as FD drops the worst scoring player from your lineup.
There are eight games on the FanDuel main slate tonight and four of them have projected totals over 220. The New York-New Orleans game is the highest with a 228 o/u but the Pelicans are favored by 10 points. Portland-Minnesota looks to be the most competitive high-scoring game tonight with a 223 game total and the Trailblazers only being a 1.5 favorite. The Miami-Indiana has the lowest total at 213. No team is playing a back-to-back, which is unusual, so we will not have to worry about that and should get more information from the teams earlier in the day.
Eight players are priced at $9,000 or higher with Anthony Davis leading the way at $12,800. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a distant second with an $11,500 salary. Joel Embiid ($10,900), Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600), and John Wall ($10,200) round out the 5-figure players for tonight.
There are a lot of ways to construct lineups. The example lineup that I give you today targets the game that I like the most (Minnesota-Portland) combined with a few of my favorite individual plays. This is merely an example of how you could construct a lineup and the thought process that goes into it. In no way, should you blindly enter this lineup in a contest, nor plug and play these players automatically without examining all the information available to you. Remember that you roster nine players on FanDuel but only count your best eight scores as FD drops the worst scoring player from your lineup.
The roster and comments that I provide are intended to be taken as an early first look. I like to cut down on variance if playing just one roster. Instead of figuring out which 9 players will play well independently of one another, I like to ask myself what is most likely to happen. Typically, that means that a game that is projected to be higher scoring and competitive will be just that. If Vegas is correct, then the plays from that game are more likely to work out from a fantasy perspective. So, I will game stack and then fill in where I need to with my roster construction.
As always, more value will open up as the day goes by that may allow you to get even better plays into your lineup (additionally, be sure to check out Jason Mickelwright’s value article today). All of the plays that recommended are plays that I will be considering for my lineups, as well. That doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of these guys as updated news and constructing rosters might lead me to a different play. Remember to check the news and injury reports, especially in the 30 minutes prior to lock. Have a solid process, using all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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Point Guard
Damian Lillard (POR): $9,400 at MIN
If I like the Minnesota-Portland game, then I have to like Lillard. He has a high probability to reach 40 points and has 50-60 points as a ceiling. He has earned 49+ FD points in four of his last 11 games. Overall, he is averaging 43 FD points this season. I am targeting this game and Lillard makes a lot of sense. You could play John Wall ($10,200) has a slightly higher projection for tonight but I don’t think it makes his higher price worth it. Ben Simmons ($9,100) is always a nice option but I am still concerned about Jimmy Butler joining the team and how that will shape up. Minnesota’s guards haven’t shown much of a desire to lock opponents down on defense so that bodes well for this NBA All-Star.
Jeff Teague (MIN): $6,900 vs. POR
If Derrick Rose is out tonight, then this is an autoplay for me. I still think I will play Teague regardless. He has played 36 and 34 minutes since returning from injury for 40.4 and 46.7 FD points, respectively. I wouldn’t be mad at you if you went down to Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,700) with Caris Levert out or Shelvin Mack ($4,200) but I am going to ride the hot hand and target this game tonight.
Shooting Guard
C.J. McCollum (POR): $6,700 at MIN
If you have $200 extra and like Andrew Wiggins more, then I am not opposed to that play. They are similar in that they are mostly scoring dependent. This is a preference play or salary play. For my roster build, McCollum fit. Portland’s implied total is slightly higher (112.3 to 110.8) and McCollum’s true usage rate is slightly higher (25.4% to 21.5%). I think there are more questions about Minnesota’s offense adding Covington and Saric, along with Rose’s health. I’d probably go McCollum over Wiggins if everything was equal but this is a chocolate vs. strawberry ice cream debate. My decision was made for me by the fact that I didn’t have enough for Wiggins. McCollum is averaging 36 FD points in the last 5 games. Yes, he had a 63.8 game against Milwaukee but I like that he has a big number like that in him. He is another nice piece from this Minnesota-Portland game.
Wayne Ellington (MIA): $3,800 at Indiana
I don’t love this pick and I definitely don’t love this game. He was nowhere near my initial lineup. Originally I was trying to fit in the upside of Andrew Wiggins ($6,900) in a game that I liked or I was looking at riding the hot hand (31.8 and 29.7 last two games) of JJ Redick ($5,500). Those are both solid picks and I wouldn’t argue against it. Ultimately, I decided that I wanted to fit in one of the high-priced studs from a game other than Minnesota-Portland. To do that, I had to go cheap somewhere. Ellington certainly has some upside because he is a gunner. Shooters gonna shoot. He has averaged 28.4 MPG the last five games. Even with Goran Dragic coming back, Ellington has been a key piece in the rotation (Dwayne Wade is still out). This should be a slow game with limited fantasy goodness. He has earned 20+ FD points in three of his last five games (one of them going for 30.3).
Small Forward
Robert Covington (MIN): $6,500 vs. POR
Covington seems to be a perfect fit for Tom Thibodeau. He should move seamlessly into the Jimmy Butler role. Without practicing, he played 41 minutes, scored 13 points and grabbed 7 rebounds for 32.4 FD points Wednesday night against New Orleans. He should be a reliable source of fantasy points moving forward. Even though he may not have the ceiling Andrew Wiggins has, I think he will be more consistent and the differences in ceilings between the two are slight. Wiggins is too scoring dependent for me. Covington does it all. With that being said, Covington has earned 39+ FD points in three of his last 9 games.
Evan Turner (POR): $4,500 at MIN
Terry Stotts loves himself some Evan Turner. We’d all be so lucky to have someone in our life that loves us this much. As long as he loves ET, and his salary stays below 5k, I will keep considering him for my rosters. I do not even like Evan Turner but I do like to win money and minutes equals money when it comes to DFS basketball. Without starting a game this year, he is still averaging 25.6 MPG. Now, Turner is far from reliable and when you roster him you have to understand that he can sink your lineup (remember, though, FD drops your worst score). He is as likely to approach 30 FD points as he is 15. Buyer beware. But at $4,500 and in my favorite game of the night, we’ve got to roll with him. Overall, he is averaging 23.5 FD points on the season. As long as Moe Harkless is out, his minutes appear safe (29 MPG in the last four games).
Power Forward
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): $6,900 vs. SAC
A quick look at his game logs might keep you from clicking his button, however, he was in foul trouble Wednesday night at Milwaukee. The game last week against Philadelphia was just a weird game for Jackson as he was non-existent and got nothing going. If you take those two games out and instead look at the other three games in his last five (where he has really started to play a lot of minutes and be a mainstay in the lineup), then he is averaging 41.1 FD points and 30 MPG. With this being a big pace up spot for the Grizzlies, I like his potential for a bounce-back game and to keep up his minutes and production. He is talented and he is starting to feel comfortable in his rookie year.
Ed Davis (BKN): $4,300 @ WAS
If Jarrett Allen is out again tonight, then Davis becomes a great value play. Even if Allen gives it a go, I think Davis is still too cheap when you consider his ability to put up fantasy points in a hurry. He didn’t play a lot of minutes on Wednesday against Miami but did get the start. He had 22.3 FD points in only 16 minutes. In the four games that he has played 19+ minutes this year, he is averaging 25.5 FD points. Overall, he is averaging 18.8 FD points in only 17.5 MPG. He has reached or exceeded 5x value in 9 of his 14 games this season (5 straight). The negative to that is that tonight’s price tag is the highest it has been all year.
Center
Joel Embiid (PHI): $10,900 vs. UTA
Embiid is a great play based upon raw projected totals (2nd only behind Anthony Davis in the FantasyPros projections). He has a good floor and a good ceiling. I wanted to play a big-time star. I generally don’t play Davis because I can’t stomach another “injury” that sinks my lineup and Giannis is in an expected blowout game, so I decided to go with Embiid. There is not much that needs to be said about one of the best players on the slate. However, my very first build had Jusuf Nurkic in it because of my affection for the Minnesota-Portland game. I think the game goes way over the 223 total. Nurkic is usually a solid play but when he doesn’t tend to get the minutes that gives him GPP winning upside. In the three games this year that he has played 30+ minutes, he has averaged 49.5 FD points. If you think he will be seeing extended minutes tonight, then I wouldn’t be opposed to him. If I decide to play multiple lineups, he will be in one of them. KAT is also a possibility (especially from a game-stack perspective) but I might as well find the extra $300 to get up to Embiid.
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Jamy Bechler is an NBA fantasy contributor for FantasyPros. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.