Both teams that took part in arguably the greatest Monday Night Football game of all time, the Rams and Chiefs, will be on a bye in Week 12. This will make many of the highest-scoring fantasy options across all positions unavailable and force fantasy owners to start players they typically wouldn’t. On top of that, injuries to Jimmy Graham, O.J. Howard, Kerryon Johnson, Marcus Mariota, and Alex Smith only continue to make lineup decisions tougher than ever.
Thanksgiving marks the beginning of fantasy football’s crunch time. This is that time to load up on all the advice you can handle through our articles, rankings, podcasts, and videos because making bad choices now can crush your championship hopes. Knowing this, our featured experts came along to share their insight on which lower ranked players should get the starting nod along with which higher ranked players you should think twice about sticking in lineups.
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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Dede Westbrook (WR – JAC)
“Westbrook has quietly seen 62 targets this season (30th among wide receivers), though his average depth of target is so small (7.4 yards) that it’s relying on him to do a lot after the catch. His 6.4 yards after the catch ranks 12th among receivers who’ve seen at least 30 targets. The Bills slot cornerback has been Taron Johnson, though he left the game against the Jets with a shoulder injury, so he’s likely going to be questionable for this game. If he’s out, that would leave Rafael Bush to fill his spot, which would be a big upgrade for Westbrook. Bush has allowed an 80 percent catch rate in his coverage this year with 77 of his 144 yards allowed coming after the catch. If Bortles is throwing the ball, Westbrook is likely the one who should see the most targets, as the Bills have been beaten deep (20-plus yards) just 25 times this year, which is the lowest mark in the league.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Chris Hogan (WR – NE)
“Hogan was targeted exactly once in each of the Week 9 & 10 games despite being on the field for 54 and 53 snaps, respectively. Rob Gronkowski was out for both games and the Patriots had other banged up players (Sony Michel, James White, and Julian Edelman). Gronk is set to return for this game against the Jets and everyone else should be fully healthy. Hogan will benefit from the team having a full complement of offensive players. The Jets allow an average of 40.8 fantasy points to the WR position, so there will be plenty of points to go around for Hogan to put up a solid game.”
– Tim McCullough (FantasyPros)
Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR)
“Most will flock to D.J. Moore and his increasing snap count, but Samuel should not be overlooked. Despite registering no more than a 33% snap share in seven games played, Samuel has seen a steady increase in targets over his last three games. With a 74% catch rate on 23 targets and an average depth of target of 10.2 yards according to AirYards.com, I expect Cam Newton to rely on Samuels’ reliability five-to-seven times in a close game where the Panthers are favored by three and carry an implied point total of 25.25.”
– Robert Waziak (Pyromaniac)
Jalen Richard (RB – OAK)
“Richard brings some sneaky good upside to the Week 12 matchup with the Ravens. He saw a season-high 11 carries last week and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Richard also continues to be active in the passing game and has seen four or more targets in nine of 10 games. Look for Richard to reach the end zone for the first time in 2018 and have a big fantasy day.”
– Walton Spurlin (Pro Football Focus)
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
“Henry at 111 overall feels like the most capable to rise up and be a huge impact-type player the rest of the way in 2018. And, while he could be a week or two away from the carries he needs (he hasn’t been getting a proper workload as of late), he has upside even this week. Should you sit any sort of “sure bet” play in favor of Henry in Week 12? No way, but with injuries and byes, he is a decent flex if the situation calls for some high-risk/high-reward action.”
– Smitty (SleeperU)
Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF)
“Goodwin matched a season-high with four receptions from Nick Mullens prior to San Francisco’s Week 11 bye. This week, the 49ers emerge from their week off with a fantastic matchup against a Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.”
– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)
Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
James White (RB – NE)
“White went back to his pass-catching role with Michel back, though the matchup against the Titans just wasn’t clicking for the Patriots offense. The Jets have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points through the air to running backs, but they’ve also faced the ninth-fewest targets. Because of that, no running back has totaled more than five catches against them. With Josh Gordon, Edelman, Gronkowski, and Michel all healthy, it’s unlikely White will be leaned on as much as he was earlier in the season. He’s still worth a start, but he’s likely to let down those who’ve started to rely on his RB1 numbers.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Adrian Peterson (RB – WAS)
“Owners depending on Peterson will be disappointed this week. With Alex Smith out for the season, the Cowboys will stack the box on Thanksgiving trying to make Colt McCoy beat them with his arm. There will be little to no running room for the veteran Peterson as Leighton Vander Esch and company hold him in check.”
– Walton Spurlin (Pro Football Focus)
Emmanuel Sanders (WR – DEN)
“Sanders has cooled off after a strong first half of the 2018 season. Since the Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas, Sanders has only averaged five receptions and 51.5 receiving yards per game. Sanders has run over 63% of his routes out of the slot, which means he’ll primarily be blanketed by Pittsburgh slot corner Mike Hilton, who is the No. 12-graded coverage corner, per Pro Football Focus. Could be another quiet outing for Sanders and the stagnant Denver passing attack.”
– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
“Jones has a tough matchup against the Vikings in Week 12. They allow an average of 20.2 fantasy points per game to the RB position, which is the sixth-fewest in the NFL. The Vikings’ run defense has allowed just two rushing TDs to running backs and 3.6 yards per attempt this season, the second fewest in the league. The Packers tend to abandon the run when it’s not effective and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones get fewer than a dozen carries like he did last week (11 carries, 40 yards).”
– Tim McCullough (FantasyPros)
Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)
“Landry feels a bit high rank-wise at #39 overall. I wouldn’t call him a bust candidate for Week 12, but there are certainly safer plays in that 38-50 range, like Tre’Quan Smith, Calvin Ridley, and even Corey Davis.”
– Smitty (SleeperU)
Thank you to the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds for Week 12. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.
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